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At least 1,621 records · Page 90

Nowcasting Earthquakes With Stochastic Simulations: Information Entropy of Earthquake Catalogs

Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes can be computed using Receiver Operating Characteristic methods. Furthermore, analysis of the Shannon information content of the earthquake catalogs has been used to show that there is information contained in the catalogs, and that it can vary in time. So an important question remains, where does the information originate? In this paper, we examine this question using stochastic simulations of earthquake catalogs. Our catalog simulations are computed using an Earthquake Rescaled Aftershock Seismicity (“ERAS”) stochastic model. This model is similar in many ways to other stochastic seismicity simulations, but has the advantage that the model has only 2 free parameters to be set, one for the aftershock (Omori-Utsu) time decay, and one for the aftershock spatial migration away from the epicenter. Generating a simulation catalog and fitting the two parameters to the observed catalog such as California takes only a few minutes of wall clock time. While clustering can arise from random, Poisson statistics, we show that significant information in the simulation catalogs arises from the “non-Poisson” power-law aftershock clustering, implying that the practice of de-clustering observed catalogs may remove information that would otherwise be useful in forecasting and nowcasting. We also show that the nowcasting method provides similar results with the ERAS model as it does with observed seismicity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Imaging single-molecule reaction intermediates stabilized by surface dissipation and entropy

Chemical transformations at the interface between solid/liquid or solid/gaseous phases of matter lie at the heart of key industrial-scale manufacturing processes. A comprehensive study of the molecular energetics and conformational dynamics that underlie these transformations is often limited to ensemble-averaging analytical techniques. In this paper we report the detailed investigation of a surface-catalysed cross-coupling and sequential cyclization cascade of 1,2-bis(2-ethynyl phenyl)ethyne on Ag(100). Using non-contact atomic force microscopy, we imaged the single-bond-resolved chemical structure of transient metastable intermediates. Theoretical simulations indicate that the kinetic stabilization of experimentally observable intermediates is determined not only by the potential-energy landscape, but also by selective energy dissipation to the substrate and entropic changes associated with key transformations along the reaction pathway. Finally, the microscopic insights gained here pave the way for the rational design and control of complex organic reactions at the surface of heterogeneous catalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Mechanistic understanding of speciated oxide growth in high entropy alloys

Abstract Complex multi-element alloys are gaining prominence for structural applications, supplementing steels, and superalloys. Understanding the impact of each element on alloy surfaces due to oxidation is vital in maintaining material integrity. This study investigates oxidation mechanisms in these alloys using a model five-element equiatomic CoCrFeNiMn alloy, in a controlled oxygen environment. The oxidation-induced surface changes correlate with each element’s interactive tendencies with the environment, guided by thermodynamics. Initial oxidation stages follow atomic size and redox potential, with the latter becoming dominant over time, causing composition inversion. The study employs in-situ atom probe tomography, transmission electron microscopy, and X-ray absorption near-edge structure techniques to elucidate the oxidation process and surface oxide structure evolution. Our findings deconvolute the mechanism for compositional and structural changes in the oxide film and will pave the way for a predictive design of complex alloys with improved resistance to oxidation under extreme conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Uncovering electron scattering mechanisms in NiFeCoCrMn derived concentrated solid solution and high entropy alloys

Abstract Whilst it has long been known that disorder profoundly affects transport properties, recent measurements on a series of solid solution 3d -transition metal alloys reveal two orders of magnitude variations in the residual resistivity. Using ab initio methods, we demonstrate that, while the carrier density of all alloys is as high as in normal metals, the electron mean-free-path can vary from ~10 Å (strong scattering limit) to ~10 3 Å (weak scattering limit). Here, we delineate the underlying electron scattering mechanisms responsible for this disparate behavior. While site-diagonal, spin dependent, potential scattering is always dominant, for alloys containing only Fe, Co, and Ni the majority-spin channel experiences negligible disorder scattering, thereby providing a short circuit, while for Cr/Mn containing alloys both spin channels experience strong disorder scattering due to an electron filling effect. Somewhat surprisingly, other scattering mechanisms—including displacement, or size effect, scattering which has been shown to strongly correlate with such diverse properties as yield strength—are found to be relatively weak in most cases.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Accurate prediction of oxygen vacancy concentration with disordered A-site cations in high-entropy perovskite oxides

Abstract Entropic stabilized ABO 3 perovskite oxides promise many applications, including the two-step solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) production. Using binary and quaternary A-site mixed {A}FeO 3 as a model system, we reveal that as more cation types, especially above four, are mixed on the A-site, the cell lattice becomes more cubic-like but the local Fe–O octahedrons are more distorted. By comparing four different Density Functional Theory-informed statistical models with experiments, we show that the oxygen vacancy formation energies ( $${E}_{V}^{f}$$ E V f ) distribution and the vacancy interactions must be considered to predict the oxygen non-stoichiometry ( δ ) accurately. For STCH applications, the $${E}_{V}^{f}$$ E V f distribution, including both the average and the spread, can be optimized jointly to improve Δ δ (difference of δ between the two-step conditions) in some hydrogen production levels. This model can be used to predict the range of water splitting that can be thermodynamically improved by mixing cations in {A}FeO 3 perovskites.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Bayesian optimization with active learning of design constraints using an entropy-based approach

Abstract The design of alloys for use in gas turbine engine blades is a complex task that involves balancing multiple objectives and constraints. Candidate alloys must be ductile at room temperature and retain their yield strength at high temperatures, as well as possess low density, high thermal conductivity, narrow solidification range, high solidus temperature, and a small linear thermal expansion coefficient. Traditional Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) methods are not sufficient for exploring combinatorially-vast alloy design spaces, optimizing for multiple objectives, nor ensuring that multiple constraints are met. In this work, we propose an approach for solving a constrained multi-objective materials design problem over a large composition space, specifically focusing on the Mo-Nb-Ti-V-W system as a representative Multi-Principal Element Alloy (MPEA) for potential use in next-generation gas turbine blades. Our approach is able to learn and adapt to unknown constraints in the design space, making decisions about the best course of action at each stage of the process. As a result, we identify 21 Pareto-optimal alloys that satisfy all constraints. Our proposed framework is significantly more efficient and faster than a brute force approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Bayesian blacksmithing: discovering thermomechanical properties and deformation mechanisms in high-entropy refractory alloys

Finding alloys with specific design properties is challenging due to the large number of possible compositions and the complex interactions between elements. This study introduces a multi-objective Bayesian optimization approach guiding molecular dynamics simulations for discovering high-performance refractory alloys with both targeted intrinsic static thermomechanical properties and also deformation mechanisms occurring during dynamic loading. The objective functions are aiming for excellent thermomechanical stability via a high bulk modulus, a low thermal expansion, a high heat capacity, and for a resilient deformation mechanism maximizing the retention of the BCC phase after shock loading. Contrasting two optimization procedures, we show that the Pareto-optimal solutions are confined to a small performance space when the property objectives display a cooperative relationship. Conversely, the Pareto front is much broader in the performance space when these properties have antagonistic relationships. Density functional theory simulations validate these findings and unveil underlying atomic-bond changes driving property improvements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗