Experiment results session: Economic evaluation; concepts, selected studies, system cost, and a proposed program
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Three appendixes in support of Volume 7 are contained in this document. The three appendixes are: (1) Satellite Power System Work Breakdown Structure Dictionary; (2) SPS cost Estimating Relationships; and (3) Financial and Operational Concept. Other volumes of the final report that provide additional detail are: Executive Summary; SPS Systems Requirements; SPS Concept Evolution; SPS Point Design Definition; Transportation and Operations Analysis; and SPS Technology Requirements and Verification.
A summary is given of the data base collected for nine weeks of Deep Space Station II. Life cycle cost parameters on efficiency and productivity ratios, costs, and telemetry were calculated from this data base.
Materials were surveyed to provide candidates for an all metal electrode paste system. These consisted of a major constituent metal powder, a low melting metal powder suitable for a liquid phase sintering medium, and a powder material suitable as an etchant for silicon dioxide at sintering temperatures. By means of thermal gravimetric analysis a suitable binder was identified for low temperature fired inks. The all metal ink concept was first demonstrated with the silver system to avoid the problems of limited process windows encountered with base metal systems. A number of solid materials capable of selectively etching silicon dioxide at modest temperatures were identified. A paste with silver fluoride was screened onto N-type silicon with 5 ohm cm resistivity. The resulting contact pads had excellent adhesion but were not electrically ohmic. Metallurgically, these contacts have equal or better grain structure as commercial inks fired at the same temperatures.
The feasibility was evaluated of finding potential sites for Solar Power Satellite (SPS) receiving antennas (rectennas) in the continental United States, in sufficient numbers to permit the SPS to make a major contribution to U.S. generating facilities, and to give statistical validity to an assessment of the characteristics of such sites and their implications for the design of the SPS system. It is found that the cost-optimum power output of the SPS does not depend on the particular value assigned to the cost per unit area of a rectenna and its site, as long as it is independent of rectenna area. Many characteristics of the sites chosen affect the optimum design of the rectenna itself.
Advanced technologies applicable to solar thermal electric power systems in the 1990-200 time-frame are delineated for power applications that fulfill a wide spectrum of small power needs with primary emphasis on power ratings less than 10MWe. Projections of power system characteristics (energy and capital costs as a function of capacity factor) are made based on development of identified promising technologies and are used as the basis for comparing technology development options and combinations of these options to determine developmental directions offering potential for significant improvements. Stirling engines, Brayton/Rankine combined cycles and storage/transport concepts encompassing liquid metals, and reversible-reaction chemical systems are considered for two-axis tracking systems such as the central receiver or power tower concept and distributed parabolic dish receivers which can provide efficient low-cost solar energy collection while achieving high temperatures for efficient energy conversion. Pursuit of advanced technology across a broad front can result in post-1985 solar thermal systems having the potential of approaching the goal of competitiveness with conventional power systems.
Schuchuli, a small remote village on the Papago Indian Reservation in southwest Arizona, is 27 kilometers (17 miles) from the nearest available utility power. Its lack of conventional power is due to the prohibitive cost of supplying a small electrical load with a long-distance distribution line. Furthermore, alternate energy sources are expensive and place a burden on the resources of the villagers. On December 16, 1978, as part of a federally funded project, a solar cell power system was put into operation at Schuchuli. The system powers the village water pump, lighting for homes and other village buildings, family refrigerators and a communal washing machine and sewing machine.
The uncertainties and associated costs involved in selecting and designing a particulate control device to meet California's air emission regulations are considered. The basic operating principles of electrostatic precipitators and fabric filters are discussed, and design parameters are identified. The size and resulting cost of the control device as a function of design parameters is illustrated by a case study for an 800 MW coal-fired fired utility boiler burning a typical southwestern subbituminous coal. The cost of selecting an undersized particulate control device is compared with the cost of selecting an oversized device.
Materials were surveyed to provide candidates for an all metal electrode paste system. These consisted of a major constituent metal powder, a low melting metal powder suitable for a liquid phase sintering medium, and a powder material suitable as an etchant for silicon dioxide at sintering temperatures. By means of thermal gravimetric analysis a suitable binder was identified for low temperature fired inks.
There are no author-identified significant results in this report.
There are no author-identified significant results in this report.
A preliminary comparative evaluation of dispersed solar thermal power plants utilizing advanced technologies available in 1985-2000 time frame is under way at JPL. The solar power plants of 50 KWe to 10 MWe size are equipped with two axis tracking parabolic dish concentrator systems operating at temperatures in excess of 1000 F. The energy conversion schemes under consideration include advanced steam, open and closed cycle gas turbines, stirling, and combined cycle. The energy storage systems include advanced batteries, liquid metal, and chemical. This paper outlines a simple methodology for a probabilistic assessment of such systems. Sources of uncertainty in the development of advanced systems are identified, and a computer Monte Carlo simulation is exercised to permit an analysis of the tradeoffs of the risk of failure versus the potential for large gains. Frequency distribution of energy cost for several alternatives are presented.
The described mathematical model calculates life-cycle costs for projects with operating costs increasing or decreasing linearly with time. The cost factors involved in the life-cycle cost are considered, and the errors resulting from the assumption of constant rather than uniformly varying operating costs are examined. Parameters in the study range from 2 to 30 years, for project life; 0 to 15% per year, for interest rate; and 5 to 90% of the initial operating cost, for the operating cost gradient. A numerical example is presented.
The projected characteristics of solar thermal power plants (with outputs up to 10 MWe) employing promising advanced technology subsystems/components are compared to current (or pre-1985) steam-Rankine systems. Improvements accruing to advanced technology development options are delineated. The improvements derived from advanced systems result primarily from achieving high efficiencies via solar collector systems which (1) capture a large portion of the available insolation and (2) concentrate this captured solar flux to attain high temperatures required for high heat engine/energy conversion performance. The most efficient solar collector systems employ two-axis tracking. Attractive systems include the central receiver/heliostat and the parabolic dish.
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Report discusses mathematical models used to estimate costs of developing and fabricating microcircuits. Second part discusses LSI packaging using tape chip carrier technology.
Inexpensive, cosine-corrected radiometer measures ultraviolet radiation. In field use, instrument tests materials for effects of ultraviolet exposure and studies solar-cell degradation. It consists of cup-shaped diaphragm and diffusing dome for corrected response, two filters that select wavelength range, and silicon solar cell. Filters control response within passband of 300 to 400 nm.
Revised costs for generating and liquefying hydrogen in mid-1980 are presented. Plant investments were treated as straight-forward escalations resulting from inflation. Operating costs, however, were derived in terms of the unit cost of coal, fuel gas and electrical energy to permit the determination of the influence of these parameters on the cost of liquid hydrogen. Inflationary influence was recognized by requiring a 15% discounted rate of return on investment for Discounted Cash Flow financing analysis, up from 12% previously. Utility financing was revised to require an 11% interest rate on debt. The scope of operation of the hydrogen plant was revised from previous studies to include only the hydrogen generation and liquefaction facilities. On-site fuel gas and power generation, originally a part of the plant complex, was eliminated. Fuel gas and power are now treated as purchased utilities. Costs for on-site generation of fuel gas however, are included.