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At least 1,621 records · Page 90

Short-Term Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Reinforcement Learning over ECMWF

In this paper, we present an innovative reinforcement learning approach for short-term solar forecasting, leveraging data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The methodology begins with the application of the System Advisor Model (SAM) to transform various ECMWF numerical weather prediction members into predictive photovoltaic power generation. To enhance the precision of deterministic forecasting, we introduce a dynamic model selection algorithm based on Q-learning. This algorithm dynamically identifies and utilizes the most accurate ensemble member for forecasting purposes. Furthermore, we employ a support vector regression surrogate model with a Gaussian distribution to generate probabilistic forecasts, providing a holistic view of solar energy generation uncertainty. To expedite the training process and make it more practical for real-world applications, we integrate a rolling update workflow. This innovative workflow reduces the training period from months to a mere 19 days, making our method highly efficient. Numerical results of the case study show that in comparison to benchmark models, the proposed method improves the deterministic and probabilistic solar forecasting accuracy by up to 40.84% and 48.42%, respectively.

ensemble forecasting↗

Determination of permeability for hydrocarbon release due to excavation-induced stress redistribution in rock salt

Due to a stress redistribution after the excavation of an underground tunnel for radioactive waste disposal, an Ed/DZ (excavation disturbed/damaged zone) will be generated in the near field of the opening, resulting in significant changes in the hydraulic and mechanical properties of the rock mass in the zone. Initially more or less randomly distributed hydrocarbons at grain boundaries in rock salt, which sometimes can only be observed with ultraviolet light, can then be mobilised and migrate at a potentially significant rate towards the excavation. Within the international cooperative project DECOVALEX 2019, the migration mechanism of such fluid inclusions in rock salt is being studied intensively. Specifically, a multi-scale modelling strategy has been developed. A macroscale coupled hydro-mechanical modelling of an underground excavation was performed to determine hydraulic and time-dependent deviatoric stress conditions, by taking into account the rock salt creep behaviour. Under the obtained macro-scale constraints, micro-scale modelling of a pathway dilation along halite grain boundaries was performed using different model strategies: a) coupled hydromechanical modelling with a consideration of hydraulic pressure-induced dilatant deformation, b) nonlinear dynamic model taking account of fluid migration, stress-dependent grain boundary wetting and shear-induced dilatancy of salt, and c) phase-field modelling of flow pathway propagation. The permeability increase resulting from the pathway dilation is estimated to be as high as two orders of magnitude. Based on the permeability determined, a series of pressure buildups measured from a borehole with a high hydrocarbon release rate, a total of 430 build-ups within a monitoring time of 938 days, can be simulated with a macro-scale compressible flow model accounting for different zones around the opening.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Graph-Based Similarity Metrics for Comparing Simulation Model Causal Structures

The causal structure of a simulation is a major determinant of both its character and behavior, yet most methods we use to compare simulations focus only on simulation outputs. We introduce a method that combines graphical representation with information theoretic metrics to quantitatively compare the causal structures of models. The method applies to agent-based simulations as well as system dynamics models and facilitates comparison within and between types. Comparing models based on their causal structures can illuminate differences in assumptions made by the models, allowing modelers to (1) better situate their models in the context of existing work, including highlighting novelty, (2) explicitly compare conceptual theory and assumptions to simulated theory and assumptions, and (3) investigate potential causal drivers of divergent behavior between models. We demonstrate the method by comparing two epidemiology models at different levels of aggregation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Operating manual holographic interferometry system for 2 x 2 foot transonic wind tunnel

A holographic interferometer system was installed in a 2X2 foot transonic wind tunnel. The system incorporates a modern, 10 pps, Nd:YAG pulsed laser which provides reliable operation and is easy to align. The spatial filtering requirements of the unstable resonator beam are described as well as the integration of the system into the existing Schieren system. A two plate holographic interferometer is used to reconstruct flow field data. For static wind tunnel models the single exposure holograms are recorded in the usual manner; however, for dynamic models such as oscillating airfoils, synchronous laser hologram recording is used.

Craig, J. E.↗

Flight directors for STOl aircraft

Flight director logic for flight path and airspeed control of a powered-lift STOL aircraft in the approach, transition, and landing configurations are developed. The methods for flight director design are investigated. The first method is based on the Optimal Control Model (OCM) of the pilot. The second method, proposed here, uses a fixed dynamic model of the pilot in a state space formulation similar to that of the OCM, and includes a pilot work-load metric. Several design examples are presented with various aircraft, sensor, and control configurations. These examples show the strong impact of throttle effectiveness on the performance and pilot work-load associated with manual control of powered-lift aircraft during approach. Improved performed and reduced pilot work-load can be achieved by using direct-lift-control to increase throttle effectiveness.

Rabin, U. H.↗

Nd:YAG holographic interferometer for aerodynamic research

A holographic interferometer system has been installed in the NASA Ames 2- by 2-Foot Transonic Wind Tunnel. The system incorporates a modern 10 pps, Nd:YAG pulsed laser which provides reliable operation and is easy to align. The spatial filtering requirements of the unstable resonator beam are described, as well as the integration of the system into the existing schlieren system. A two-plate holographic interferometer is used to reconstruct flow field data. For static wind tunnel models, the single exposure holograms are recorded in the usual manner; however, for dynamic models such as oscillating airfoils, synchronous laser hologram recording is used.

Craig, J. E.↗

Multi-input, multi-output system control for experimental aircraft

Two techniques, direct eigenspace assignment (DEA) and explicit model following (EMF), are used initially to synthesize control laws for the longitudinal dynamics model of a Short Takeoff and Landing (STOL) vehicle in the landing configuration. The vehicle model and the flight control design are presented. The two synthesis techniques are briefly discussed and the handling qualities specifications mapped into the algorithm formulations. The control laws resulting from exercising the algorithms are evaluated in terms of achieved performance and robustness. Since the synthesized control laws involve full state feedback, methodologies were implemented for the control laws using output feedback without adversely affecting performance and robustness. Finally, the salient features of the two design techniques are summarized and the areas that require further investigation are suggested.

Schmidt, D. K.↗

Giotto-spacecraft charging due to impact generated plasma in the presence of dielectric materials

The charging effects of a conducting/dielectric model spacecraft in the impact induced plasma environment are contrasted. The results of dynamic model calculations indicate larger charging times and higher positive spacecraft potentials for a conducting/dielectric spacecraft. The potential and particle distributions around the spacecraft differ quantitatively and qualitatively in both cases.

Thiemann, H.↗

Determination of joint drives for stable end-effector motion in flexible robotic systems

The prescribed tasks in high speed robotic systems are severely deteriorated because of their manipulator dynamic deflections. On the other hand conventional dynamic modeling techniques fail to reveal appropriate control forces in flexible systems. The conventional dynamic equations of motion for systems subject to kinematical constraints are modified by a new concept of control force representation. The directions of the control forces are selected such that they correspond to the joint degrees of freedom. Then the joint control forces and torques that yield unperturbed prescribed motions are solved simultaneously with the system motion. A flexible manipulator is presented to illustrate the methods proposed.

Ider, Sitki Kemal↗

Effect of motor dynamics on nonlinear feedback robot arm control

A nonlinear feedback robot controller that incorporates the robot manipulator dynamics and the robot joint motor dynamics is proposed. The manipulator dynamics and the motor dynamics are coupled to obtain a third-order-dynamic model, and differential geometric control theory is applied to produce a linearized and decoupled robot controller. The derived robot controller operates in the robot task space, thus eliminating the need for decomposition of motion commands into robot joint space commands. Computer simulations are performed to verify the feasibility of the proposed robot controller. The controller is further experimentally evaluated on the PUMA 560 robot arm. The experiments show that the proposed controller produces good trajectory tracking performances and is robust in the presence of model inaccuracies. Compared with a nonlinear feedback robot controller based on the manipulator dynamics only, the proposed robot controller yields conspicuously improved performance.

Tarn, Tzyh-Jong↗

Effect of type of load on stress analysis of thin-walled ducts

The standard procedure for qualifying the design of duct (pipe) systems in the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) has been fairly well defined. However, since pipe elbows are quite common and important in the SSME duct systems, a clear understanding of the detailed stress profile of the components is necessary for accurate structural and life assessments. This study was initiated to predict the stress profile at/near the tangent point along the cross section of the duct under various types of loads. Also, this study was further extended to understand the stiffening effect on stresses due to pressure at the tangent point. The intention of this study was to identify the importance of selecting proper locations for mounting strain gauges and to utilize the obtained results to anchor dynamic models for accurate structural and life assessments of the SSME ducts under a dynamic environment. The finite element method was utilized in this study.

Min, J. B.↗

The Mars water cycle at other epochs: Recent history of the polar caps and layered terrain

The Martian polar caps and layered terrain presumably evolves by the deposition and removal of small amounts of water and dust each year, the current cap attributes therefore represent the incremental transport during a single year as integrated over long periods of time. The role was studied of condensation and sublimation of water ice in this process by examining the seasonal water cycle during the last 10(exp 7) yr. In the model, axial obliquity, eccentricity, and L sub s of perihelion vary according to dynamical models. At each epoch, the seasonal variations in temperature are calculated at the two poles, keeping track of the seasonal CO2 cap and the summertime sublimation of water vapor into the atmosphere; net exchange of water between the two caps is calculated based on the difference in the summertime sublimation between the two caps (or on the sublimation from one cap if the other is covered with CO2 frost all year). Results from the model can help to explain (1) the apparent inconsistency between the timescales inferred for layer formation and the much older crater retention age of the cap and (2) the difference in sizes of the two residual caps, with the south being smaller than the north.

Jakosky, Bruce M.↗

Design and analysis of numerical experiments

Methods for the design and analysis of numerical experiments that are especially useful and efficient in multidimensional parameter spaces are presented. The analysis method, which is similar to kriging in the spatial analysis literature, fits a statistical model to the output of the numerical model. The method is applied to a fully nonlinear, global, equivalent-barotropic dynamical model. The statistical model also provides estimates for the uncertainty of predicted numerical model output, which can provide guidance on where in the parameter space to conduct further experiments, if necessary. The method can provide significant improvements in the efficiency with which numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted.

Bowman, Kenneth P.↗

Modeling the vestibulo-ocular reflex of the squirrel monkey during eccentric rotation and roll tilt

Model simulations of the squirrel monkey vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) are presented for two motion paradigms: constant velocity eccentric rotation and roll tilt about a naso-occipital axis. The model represents the implementation of three hypotheses: the "internal model" hypothesis, the "gravito-inertial force (GIF) resolution" hypothesis, and the "compensatory VOR" hypothesis. The internal model hypothesis is based on the idea that the nervous system knows the dynamics of the sensory systems and implements this knowledge as an internal dynamic model. The GIF resolution hypothesis is based on the idea that the nervous system knows that gravity minus linear acceleration equals GIF and implements this knowledge by resolving the otolith measurement of GIF into central estimates of gravity and linear acceleration, such that the central estimate of gravity minus the central estimate of acceleration equals the otolith measurement of GIF. The compensatory VOR hypothesis is based on the idea that the VOR compensates for the central estimates of angular velocity and linear velocity, which sum in a near-linear manner. During constant velocity eccentric rotation, the model correctly predicts that: (1) the peak horizontal response is greater while "facing-motion" than with "back-to-motion"; (2) the axis of eye rotation shifts toward alignment with GIF; and (3) a continuous vertical response, slow phase downward, exists prior to deceleration. The model also correctly predicts that a torsional response during the roll rotation is the only velocity response observed during roll rotations about a naso-occipital axis. The success of this model in predicting the observed experimental responses suggests that the model captures the essence of the complex sensory interactions engendered by eccentric rotation and roll tilt.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) Acceptance Test Plan [Draft]

The information presented in this Acceptance Test Plan document shows the current status of the General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT). GMAT is a software system developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) in collaboration with the private sector. The GMAT development team continuously performs acceptance tests in order to verify that the software continues to operate properly after updates are made. The GMAT Development team consists of NASA/GSFC Code 583 software developers, NASA/GSFC Code 595 analysts, and contractors of varying professions. GMAT was developed to provide a development approach that maintains involvement from the private sector and academia, encourages collaborative funding from multiple government agencies and the private sector, and promotes the transfer of technology from government funded research to the private sector. GMAT contains many capabilities, such as integrated formation flying modeling and MATLAB compatibility. The propagation capabilities in GMAT allow for fully coupled dynamics modeling of multiple spacecraft, in any flight regime. Other capabilities in GMAT inclucle: user definable coordinate systems, 3-D graphics in any coordinate system GMAT can calculate, 2-D plots, branch commands, solvers, optimizers, GMAT functions, planetary ephemeris sources including DE405, DE200, SLP and analytic models, script events, impulsive and finite maneuver models, and many more. GMAT runs on Windows, Mac, and Linux platforms. Both the Graphical User Interface (GUI) and the GMAT engine were built and tested on all of the mentioned platforms. GMAT was designed for intuitive use from both the GUI and with an importable script language similar to that of MATLAB.

Dove, Edwin↗

Reconstruction of the Voyager Saturn Encounter orbits in the ICRF system

We obtain Voyager trajectories in the International Celestial Reference Frame, and we revise the gravity field taking advantage of improvements made in modelling and data processing since the previous work. We also incorporate a full dynamical model for the Saturnian satellites into the analysis for the first time.

Voyager↗

Design and testing of high-performance mini-channel graphite heat exchangers in thermoelectric energy recovery systems

Recent national energy usage studies by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in 2015 [1] show that there is approximately 59 Quads (1015 Btu’s) of waste thermal energy throughout various industrial, residential, power generation, and transportation sectors of the U.S. economy. Thermoelectric energy recovery is one important technology for recovering this waste thermal energy in high-temperature industrial, transportation and military energy systems. Thermoelectric generator (TEG) systems in these applications require high performance hot-side and cold-side heat exchangers to provide the critical temperature differential and transfer the required thermal energy. High performance hot-side heat exchangers in these systems are often metal-based due to requirements for high-temperature operation, strength at temperature, corrosion resistance, and chemical stability. However, the generally selected metal-based hot-side heat exchangers (i.e., Inconels, Stainless Steels) suffer from low thermal conductivity, high thermal expansion, and high density, which degrades their thermal performance, leads to high thermal-expansion-driven stresses, and creates relatively high mass/high volume (i.e., low power density) TEG systems that are then difficult to fabricate and integrate into viable energy recovery systems. This paper describes the design and testing of a new, high-temperature minichannel graphite heat exchanger designed for operation up to 500C that is a critical element of a high-power-density TEG power system for aircraft energy recovery. This high-performance graphite heat exchanger represents a new state-of-the-art standard in high-temperature heat exchangers for TEG systems, which provides higher thermal transport, less thermal expansion at operation, lower system level stresses on TE components, and a lighter weight TEG system. This new heat exchanger creates a new design paradigm in TEG system design for terrestrial energy recovery and potential NASA technology infusion into terrestrial energy system applications. This paper will present and discuss the key heat transfer, pressure drop, pumping power analyses and design tradeoffs that created this unique design. Heat transfer and pressure drop modeling was performed with both empirical models based on known heat transfer and friction factor correlations and COMSOL thermal/fluid dynamic modeling of the graphite heat exchanger structure. We will also discuss resulting thermal transport and heat fluxes predicted at the TEG interface level. Heat exchanger performance testing was performed under simulated operating conditions and correlation with test data at the anticipated operating temperature conditions will be presented and discussed.

Shevade, Abhijit↗

Cavitation Effects on the Structural Dynamics of Turbomachinery Components

The structural integrity of inducer and impeller blades in rocket engine turbomachinery must be evaluated in the face of complex excitation mechanisms including fluctuating pressures due to cavitation. Cavitation occurs when the local fluid pressure drops below the vapor pressure, causing the formation of vapor-filled bubbles. Cavitation can exist to various extents within the typical operating range of rocket engine turbopumps. Despite recent progress towards reducing uncertainties in structural dynamic models of turbomachinery components, the extent to which pump cavitation affects the structural dynamic properties (i.e., natural frequencies, damping, and mode shapes) of inducer and impeller blades remains largely unknown. To study the structural dynamic effects of cavitating flows, experiments are conducted in a high-speed water tunnel. The test article is a low aspect ratio cantilevered plate, thus mimicing a single inducer blade that is unwrapped from its hub. The test article is oriented at zero angle of attack and has a triangular trip at its leading edge to induce cavitation. To change the extent of cavitation, the static pressure of the water tunnel is controlled. A high-speed camera is used to quantify the coverage of the cavitation sheet.

Fluid-Structure Interaction↗