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At least 1,621 records · Page 90

A Model Assessment of Satellite Observed Trends in Polar Sea Ice Extents

For more than three decades now, satellite passive microwave observations have been used to monitor polar sea ice. Here we utilize sea ice extent trends determined from primarily satellite data for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for the period 1972(73)-2004 and compare them with results from simulations by eleven climate models. In the Northern Hemisphere, observations show a statistically significant decrease of sea ice extent and an acceleration of sea ice retreat during the past three decades. However, from the modeled natural variability of sea ice extents in control simulations, we conclude that the acceleration is not statistically significant and should not be extrapolated into the future. Observations and model simulations show that the time scale of climate variability in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere is much larger than in the Northern Hemisphere and that the Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent trends are not statistically significant.

Vinnikov, Konstantin Y.↗

The Most Reliable and Precise Model to Determine Schottky Barrier Height and Photoelectron Yield Spectroscopy

Schottky barrier height (SBH), φ, plays a crucial role in the design of electronic and photo-electronic devices. In order to reckon SBH via internal photoemission (IPE), the technique is through extrapolating square root of IPE yield-and cube root of IPE yield-photon energy plots to zero before this work, this work was motivated by the most reliable and precise model to determine the SBH via IPE. A phenomenological model for connection IPE quantum yield and photon energy has been successfully established based on Fermi–Dirac distribution. The results of experimental observations fitted via the model indicate that the modeled quantum yield agrees well with experimental data. This model emphasizes the threshold of photon energy for calculating SBH, and the SBH of InN/GaN, p-type GaP/p-type Si, Pt/GaP, Au/GaAs, Si/SiO{sub 2} and Cu/SiO{sub 2} were obtained with high reliability after the method had been applied.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Quantifying uncertainty in physics-based predictions of rare-isotope production cross sections via Bayesian-inspired model averaging across nuclear mass tables

Accurate prediction of fragmentation cross sections is essential for rare-isotope beam production, planning new-isotope searches, and designing experiments to study the most exotic regions of the nuclear chart. However, existing reaction models and phenomenological cross-section parametrizations often exhibit significant deviations over broad regions of mass and charge. In this work, a Bayesian-inspired model-averaging framework is developed to combine abrasion-ablation (AA) calculations based on multiple nuclear mass tables into a single statistically weighted estimate. For the calibrated systems, the model weights are assigned empirically according to the relative quality of fit to measured cross sections, thereby reducing systematic model bias while preserving the underlying physics content of the AA description. The weights are constrained using proton-rich fragmentation data for the 78 Kr and 124 Xe projectiles. The resulting parameter trends are then propagated to the 92 Mo and 144 Sm systems through a controlled scaling procedure. In the present implementation, the excitation-energy prescription is fixed, while the averaging is performed across nuclear-mass inputs; the framework provides both weighted cross sections and associated uncertainty estimates. Applied to proton-rich fragmentation, the present approach provides a practical basis for interpolation and limited extrapolation in regions relevant to rare-isotope production. The resulting predictions are used to assess the production of very proton-rich nuclei, and candidate new isotopes are discussed.

Bayesian methods↗

On determining the primordial helium abundance from the spectra of H II galaxies

A data set of 53 H II galaxies and giant H II regions whose observed abundances have reliable formal uncertainties reveals that the O/H-He/H relation used to determine the primordial helium abundance (PBA) has a highly significant physical dispersion. Consideration of possible sources of scatter indicates that it is almost certainly one-sided, i.e., upward from a minimum value of He/H at each O/H. The presence of an asymmetric dispersion casts doubt on values of PBA obtained by extrapolating ridge-line fits to the O/H-He/H relation. The loss of oxygen in SN explosions will lead naturally to a positive dispersion in He/H. The observed dispersions in He/H can be explained by chemical evolution models in which 0-95 percent of the newly synthesized oxygen is lost. It is concluded that in H II galaxies and giant H II regions PBA can be reliably determined only by fitting to the lower envelope of the O/H-He/H relation.

Campbell, Alison↗

Aerothermal Analysis of the Dragonfly Titan Entry

The Dragonfly mission will send a rotorcraft lander to the surface of Saturn’s moon Titan as part of the New-Frontiers program. This will be the first spacecraft to land on Titan since the Huygens probe’s descent in January of 2005 and only the second spacecraft to enter Titan’s atmosphere. The Dragonfly entry capsule is significantly larger than the Huygens probe and will experience higher aerothermal environments. This poster will provide an overview of the aerothermodynamic models used in the Dragonfly aeroshell design process. Titan provides a unique entry environment that has several fundamental differences from the environments at the more common entry destinations of Earth and Mars. The lack of atmospheric oxygen significantly reduces heatshield recession (expected to be negligible), which simplifies material response analysis but also reduces the efficiency of the thermal protection system. The atmos-phere is composed of mostly nitrogen and trace amounts of methane. During hypersonic entry this methane dissociates and leads to the formation of the molecule CN, which is known to radiate strongly in the shock layer. Current Dragonfly heating predictions estimate that radiation contributes about 50% of the total heat flux along the forebody and up to 90% on the aftbody, making radiation a key element of aerothermal analysis. To properly address the importance of radiation, a unique radiative-heating correlation was developed that incorporates normal-shock equilibrium chemistry predictions based on work from the Mars 2020 program. These new heating correlations agree well with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) predictions and enable large-scale trajectory analyses by providing rapid heating predictions along candidate trajectories. Dragonfly aerothermal environments are generated with the Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) finite-volume Navier-Stokes solver alongside the Nonequilibrium Radiative Transport and Spectra (NEQAIR) radiation transport code. DPLR produces shock-aligned flowfields that incorporate the effects of both chemical and thermal nonequilibrium while NEQAIR solves the radiation transport equations along lines-of-sight through the flowfield solutions to predict the radiative heating on the aeroshell. Titan’s atmosphere produces complex thermal and chemical nonequilibria and so classical radiation approximations that extrapolate from a single line-of-sight, such as the Tangent-Slab method, were found to overpredict peak radiative heat fluxes by 10-20%. Therefore, all radiative heating is directly calculated using 3-D transport for both the forebody and aftbody to reduce unnecessary conservatism. A 21-species finite-rate chemistry model, including electrons and ionized species, is used in the CFD to ensure accurate vehicle heating predictions (the level of ionization is particularly for accurate radiative flux predictions). This poster will cover: 1) The models and assumptions used to simulate entry into Titan’s atmosphere, 2) Dragonfly aerothermal engineering correlations alongside statistical heating values, and 3) Driving aerothermal considerations for a Titan entry such as CN formation and radiation-flowfield coupling.

EDL↗

Measuring the Stress Factors for Photovoltaic (PV) Backsheet Degradation

Back sheet failure has resulted in power loss and large-scale recall of photovoltaic modules, resulting in billions of dollars in lost revenue. The light exposure on the backside of a photovoltaic module comes primarily from reflected light which alters the distribution of natural sunlight. Because of this, modelling the backside exposure and duplicating the exposure is much more difficult than modeling the frontside exposure. This project aims to study how various back sheets and junction box materials degrade under different conditions and to develop Python code to help model and predict degradation. The stress factors for back-sheet degradation must be quantified to extrapolate accelerated stress tests to the field. Test samples were placed in the A3, A4, and A5 conditions, as defined in IEC 62788-7-2, to assess the temperature and humidity dependence of ultraviolet (UV) induced degradation. We are utilizing a custom chamber with exposure from 0.5 UV-suns to 5 UV-suns to understand the dependence of degradation on light intensity. A group of samples put in the A3 condition had glass filters with 50% UV cut-offs of 320 nm, 335 nm, and 360 nm to assess the wavelength dependence of UV degradation. All this data is necessary to assess the impact of non-standard UV light exposure. The material evaluation tests include gloss measurements, attenuated total internal reflectance Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR), UV-visible reflectance/transmittance utilizing a Cary Ci7000 spectrophotometer, and a nano-indenter for surface hardness and modulus measurements. Alongside the experimental work, there is a computational effort using raytracing and Python open-source tools in PVDeg , PVLib, and Bifacial_Radiance. This code will create specific exposure scenarios and enable the evaluation of chamber degradation relative to field degradation. Equation 1 is a strawman equation used to model degradation on the backside of a PV module. We will create simplified code, based on the results of ray-tracing calculations, which uses a view factor approach to provide fast calculations for the most common exposure scenarios.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Dielectron production in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s}=7 $ TeV

The first measurement of e + e - pair production at mid-rapidity (|η e | < 0.8) in pp collisions at s√=7 TeV with ALICE at the LHC is presented. The dielectron production is studied as a function of the invariant mass (m ee < 3.3 GeV/c 2 ), the pair transverse momentum (pT, ee < 8 GeV/c), and the pair transverse impact parameter (DCA ee ), i.e., the average distance of closest approach of the reconstructed electron and positron tracks to the collision vertex, normalised to its resolution. The results are compared with the expectations from a cocktail of known hadronic sources and are well described when PYTHIA is used to generate the heavy-flavour contributions. In the low-mass region (0.14 < m ee < 1.1 GeV/c2), prompt and non-prompt e + e - sources can be separated via the DCA ee . In the intermediate-mass region (1.1 < m ee < 2.7 GeV/c 2 ), a double-differential fit to the data in m ee and pT, ee and a fit of the DCA ee distribution allow the total $c\overline{c}$ and $b\overline{b}$ cross sections to be extracted. Two different event generators, PYTHIA and POWHEG, can reproduce the shape of the two-dimensional mee and pT,ee spectra, as well as the shape of the DCA ee distribution, reasonably well. However, differences in the cc and bb cross sections are observed when using the generators to extrapolate to full phase space. Finally, the ratio of inclusive to decay photons is studied via the measurement of virtual direct photons in the transverse-momentum range 1 < pT < 8 GeV/c. This is found to be unity within the statistical and systematic uncertainties and consistent with expectations from next-to-leading order perturbative quantum chromodynamic calculations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Constraining hadronization mechanisms with Λ c + / D 0 production ratios in Pb–Pb collisions at s NN = 5.02 TeV

The production of prompt $\ Λ^{+}_{c}$ baryons at midrapidity (|y|<0.5) was measured in central (0–10%) and mid-central (30–50%) Pb–Pb collisions at the center-of-mass energy per nucleon–nucleon pair $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ TeV with the ALICE detector. The results are more precise, more differential in centrality, and reach much lower transverse momentum (p T =1 GeV/c) with respect to previous measurements performed by the ALICE, STAR, and CMS Collaborations in nucleus–nucleus collisions, allowing for an extrapolation down to p T =0. The p T -differential $\ Λ^{+}_{c}$/D 0 ratio is enhanced with respect to the pp measurement for 4 < p T < 8 GeV/c by 3.7 standard deviations (σ), while the p T -integrated ratios are compatible within 1σ. The observed trend is similar to that observed in the strange sector for the Λ/$\ K^{0}_{S}$ ratio. Model calculations including coalescence or statistical hadronization for charm-hadron formation are compared with the data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The ATLAS Data Management System Rucio: Supporting LHC Run-2 and beyond

With this contribution we present some recent developments made to Rucio, the data management system of the High-Energy Physics Experiment ATLAS. Already managing 300 Petabytes of both official and user data, Rucio has seen incremental improvements throughout LHC Run-2, and is currently laying the groundwork for HEP computing in the HL-LHC era. The focus of this contribution are (a) the automations that have been put in place such as data rebalancing or dynamic replication of user data, as well as their supporting infrastructures such as real-time networking metrics or transfer time predictions; (b) the flexible approach towards inclusion of heterogeneous storage systems, including object stores, while unifying the potential access paths using generally available tools and protocols; (c) machine learning approaches to help with transfer throughput estimation; and (d) the adoption of Rucio for two other experiments, AMS and Xenon1t. We conclude by presenting operational numbers and figures to quantify these improvements, and extrapolate the necessary changes and developments for future LHC runs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Multiple element isotope probes, NanoSIMS, and the functional genomics of microbial carbon cycling in soils in response to chronic climatic change

In this project, we developed an innovative and ground-breaking technique, quantitative stable isotope probing, a technique that uses density separation of nucleic acids as a quantitative measurement technique. This work is substantial because it advances SIP beyond the qualitative technique that has dominate the field for years. The first methods paper was published in Applied and Environmental Microbiology (Hungate et al. 2015), and this paper describes the mathematical model underlying the quantitative interpretation. A second methods paper (Schwartz et al. 2015) provides a conceptual overview of the method and its application to research problems. A third methods paper was just published (Koch et al. 2018), in which we develop the quantitative model combining sequencing and isotope data to estimate actual rates of microbial growth and death in natural populations. This work has met much enthusiasm in scientific presentations around the world. It has met with equally enthusiastic resistance in the peer-review process, though our record of publication to date argues that people are accepting the merits of the approach. The skepticism and resistance are also potentially signs that this technique is pushing the field forward, albeit with some of the discomfort that accompanies extrapolation. Part of this is a cultural element in the field – the field of microbiology is not accustomed to the assumptions of ecosystem science. Research conducted in this project has pushed the philosophical perspective that major advances can occur when we advocate a sound merger between the traditions of strong inference in microbiology with those of grounded scaling in ecosystem science.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Physics from Cosmic Surveys (Final Report)

The main focus of the PI during this time was leading the effort to produce cosmological results on the data set from the first three years from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). The analysis combines weak gravitational lensing and maps of the galaxy distribution, supplemented by estimates of the redshifts of galaxies. This will ultimately lead to 33 papers, culminating in a single paper that brings all this together and provides a constraint on the clustering parameter σ 8 .This will be directly compared to the constraint obtained by high-redshift experiments, such as the Planck satellite, extrapolated forward assuming the CDM model. If the two values disagree, as they currently seem to at the 2-sigma level, this will be an indication that the model is incorrect or incomplete. These papers are expected to be submitted in January, 2021. Leading this effort, with help from many others, has been the primary research focus of the PI during this grant.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Observations in interplanetary space of relativistic electrons from Jupiter

Evidence for the presence of Jovian electrons in interplanetary space as much as 1 AU inside the orbit of Jupiter is summarized. Electron flux patterns at Pioneer 10 can only rarely be correlated with solar activity. Clear variations in intensity and spectrum with a period of 10 hrs are seen at varying distances from Jupiter, consistent with similar observations inside the magnetosphere. Extrapolated electron flux maxima and minima are in good agreement with the observed phase at distances as large as 80 million km from Jupiter, indicating rapid propagation of electrons from the planet. Anisotropy is greatest during the rising phase of the 10 hr variations and in a direction consistent with the interpretation of electrons traveling toward the sun along interplanetary spiral field lines. The propagation time calculated by Chenette's derivation is much larger than that implied by the data.

Chenette, D. L.↗

A comparison of two independent measurements and analysis of jet aircraft flyover noise

Flyover noise measurements were made simultaneously by two groups. The measurements were made close to one another for the same flyover conditions and with similar measurement procedures, but with different acoustic equipment and personnel. Each group also independently processed the data in accordance with FAR 36 procedures, indluding corrections to reference meteorological, performance, and flight-path conditions. Measured and corrected data, from 24 controlled flyovers processed by both groups, are compared and the differences in the results obtained by the two groups are discussed. It is observed that the average value of the difference between the groups' measured acoustic descriptors (PNL, PNLTM, and EPNL) was less than or = 0.8 db; the average difference for the corrected descriptors (PNL, PNLTM, and EPNL) was less than or = 1.5 db. Causes of the differences were found to be mainly related to different spectrum extrapolation and preemphasis techniques used by the two groups.

Hosier, R. N.↗

Assessment of Potential Aerodynamic Benefits from Spanwise Blowing at the Wing Tip

A comprehensive set of experimental and analytical investigations have been conducted to assess the potential aerodynamic benefits from spanwise blowing at the tip of a moderate aspect ratio, swept wing. An analytical model has been developed to simulate a jet exhausting from the wing tip. An experimental study of a subsonic jet exhausting from the wing tip was conducted to investigate the effect of spanwise blowing from the tip on the aerodynamic characteristics of a moderate aspect ratio, swept wing. Wing force and moment data and surface pressure data were measured at Mach numbers up to 0.72. Results indicate that small amounts of blowing from small jets increase the lift curve slope a small amount, but have no effect on drag. Larger amounts of blowing from longer jets blowing increases lift near the tip and reduce drag at low Mach numbers. These benefits decrease with increasing Mach number, and vanish at Mach 0.5. A Navier-Stokes solver with modified boundary conditions at the tip was used to extrapolate the results to a Mach number of 0.72. With current technology and conventional wing shapes, spanwise blowing at the wing tip does not appear to be a practical means of reducing drag of moderate aspect ratio wings at high subsonic Mach numbers.

Mineck, Raymond Edward↗

The distribution of dark matter in the A2256 cluster

Using spatially resolved X-ray spectroscopy, it was determined that the X-ray emitting gas in the rich cluster A2256 is nearly isothermal to a radius of at least 0.76/h Mpc, or about three core radii. These data can be used to measure the distribution of the dark matter in the cluster. It was found that the total mass interior to 0.76/h Mpc and 1.5/h Mpc is (0.5 +/- 0.1 and 1.0 +/- 0.5) x 10(exp 15)/h of the solar mass respectively where the errors encompass the full range allowed by all models used. Thus, the mass appropriate to the region where spectral information was obtained is well determined, but the uncertainties become large upon extrapolating beyond that region. It is shown that the galaxy orbits are midly anisotropic which may cause the beta discrepancy in this cluster.

Henry, J. Patrick↗

Automated identification of OB associations in M31

A new identification of OB associations in M31 has been performed using the Path Linkage Criterion (PLC) technique of Battinelli (1991). We found 174 associations with a very small contamination (less than 5%) by random clumps of stars. The expected total number and average size of OB associations in the region of M 31 covered by our data set (Magnier et al. 1992) are approximately 280 and approximately 90 pc, respectively. M31 associations therefore have sizes similar to those of OB associations observed in nearby galaxies, so that we can consider them to be classical OB associations. This list of OB associations will be used for the study of the spatial distribution of OB associations and their correlation with other objects. Taking into account the fact that we do not cover the entire disk of M31, we extrapolate a total number of association in M31 of approximately 420.

Magnier, Eugene A.↗

Estimates of Lake Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Chlorophyll‐ a Concentrations to Characterize Harmful Algal Bloom Risk Across the United States

Abstract Excess nutrient pollution contributes to the formation of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that compromise fisheries and recreation and that can directly endanger human and animal health via cyanotoxins. Efforts to quantify the occurrence, drivers, and severity of HABs across large areas is difficult due to the resource intensive nature of field monitoring of lake nutrient and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations. To better characterize how nutrients interact with other environmental factors to produce algal blooms in freshwater systems, we used spatially explicit and temporally matched climate, landscape, in‐lake characteristic, and nutrient inventory data sets to predict nutrients and chlorophyll‐aacross the conterminous US (CONUS). Using a nested modeling approach, three random forest (RF) models were trained to explain the spatiotemporal variation in total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations across US EPA's National Lakes Assessment (n = 2,062). Concentrations of TN and TP were the most important predictors and, with other variables, the RF model accounted for 68% of variation in chlorophyll‐a. We then used these RF models to extrapolate lake TN and TP predictions to lakes without nutrient observations and predict chlorophyll‐afor ∼112,000 lakes across the CONUS. Risk for high chlorophyll‐aconcentrations is highest in the agriculturally dominated Midwest, but other areas of risk emerge in nutrient pollution hot spots across the country. These catchment and lake‐specific results can help managers identify potential nutrient pollution and chlorophyll‐ahot spots that may fuel blooms, prioritize at‐risk lakes for additional monitoring, and optimize management to protect human health and other environmental end goals.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Ground-state properties of light 4 n self-conjugate nuclei in ab initio no-core Monte Carlo shell model calculations with nonlocal N N interactions

We report J π = 0 + ground-state energies and point-proton radii of 4 He, 8 Be, 12 C, 16 O, and 20 Ne nuclei calculated by the ab initio no-core Monte Carlo shell model with the JISP16 and Daejeon16 nonlocal NN interactions. Ground-state energies are obtained in the basis spaces up to seven oscillator shells (N shell =7) with several oscillator energies (ℏω) around the optimal oscillator energy for the convergence of ground-state energies. These energy eigenvalues are extrapolated to obtain estimates of converged ground-state energies in each basis space using energy variances of computed energy eigenvalues. We further extrapolate these energy-variance-extrapolated energies obtained in the finite basis spaces to infinite basis-space results with an empirical exponential form. This form features a dependence on the basis-space size but is independent of the value of ℏω used for the harmonic-oscillator basis functions. Point-proton radii for these states of atomic nuclei are also calculated following techniques employed for the energies. From these results, it is found that the Daejeon16 NN interaction provides good agreement with experimental data up to approximately 16 O, while the JISP16 NN interaction provides good agreement with experimental data up to approximately 12 C. Beyond these nuclei, the interactions produce overbinding accompanied by radii that are too small. These findings suggest and encourage further revisions of nonlocal NN interactions towards the investigation of nuclear structure in heavier-mass regions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗