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DOE OSTI2023

Hanford Waste Treatment Plant LAB Facility Stack Effluent Monitoring: Sampling Probe Location Qualification Evaluation

The Waste Treatment Plant laboratory (LAB) facility stack monitor locations were qualified using scale model stacks to mitigate the risk of identifying that sampling locations do not meet the qualification criteria on the full-scale stack. As required by the American National Standards Institute/Health Physics Society (ANSI/HPS) N13.1-1999 standard, the scale model and its sampling location were geometrically similar to the actual stack, and the Reynolds numbers for both the actual and model stacks were >10,000. An additional criterion is that the product of the hydraulic diameter and mean velocity (DV) of the full-scale stack must be between 1/6 DV and 6 DV of the scale model stack tests. Verification tests of the LAB stacks were performed at normal operating conditions. The minimum 1/6 DV value, along with the maximum 6 DV value from the scale model testing, determines the range of conditions for which the full-scale stack may be operated and remain in compliance with the stack verification criterion. A practical range for the full-scale stack qualification uses the average DV through 6 DV from the scale model tests to compute the corresponding flow rates. Table S1 lists the operating flow rates along with the average and maximum qualified stack flow rates for each of the LAB facility stacks. For each stack, the operating flow is below the maximum qualified stack flow, which means that the scale model test results are acceptable for stack qualification. The remaining criteria for the stack verification to be considered valid involve the flow angle and velocity uniformity results. First, the flow angle at the full-scale stack must be ≤20°. Second, the velocity uniformity at the full-scale stack must be ≤20% coefficient of variance (COV). Finally, the velocity uniformity results for the actual and scale model stack tests must agree within 5% COV. These criteria were met through the full-scale stack tests at the LAB facility. Flow angle results were primarily less than 10°, except for the LB-C2 Fan A results, which were an average of 13.7°; all flow angle results were within the ≤20° criterion. The velocity uniformity results for each test condition averaged between 1.5 and 4.1% COV, which were all within the range of the target percent coefficient of variation values from the scale model tests. Based on these stack verification test results, the three LAB filtered exhaust stack sampling locations meet the qualification criteria provided in the ANSI/HPS N13.1-1999 standard for all fan operating configurations. This includes single-fan as well as dual-fan operations for LB-C2, each of the dual-fan operating conditions for LB-S1, and each single-fan operating condition for LB-S2. Further changes to the system configuration or operating conditions that are outside the bounds described in this report may require additional tests or analyses to determine compliance with the standard.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ship-based Observations and Climate Model Simulations of Cloud Phase over the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean (SO) clouds exert a significant influence on the Earth’s radiation budget. Here we analyzed ship-based remote sensing observations of SO clouds over a five-month long DOE ARM Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation and Clouds over the Southern Oceans (MARCUS) field campaign to better understand cloud phase variability. We developed a method to classify eight categories of hydrometeors (ice, liquid, mixed phase, rain, drizzle, snow, aerosols, and clear sky) based on measurements of lidar, radar and radiosondes. Cloud thermodynamic phases (liquid, ice and mixed phase) at coarser scales were further derived to compare with the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) simulation and the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC 2 ) instrument simulator. For a scale-aware comparison with climate model simulations, we found that spatially averaging the raw remote sensing data (e.g., backscatter, reflectivity) results in increased cloud cover and cloud liquid, whereas, directly averaging cloud phase from higher to lower resolution maintains clear air regions and is thus recommended for in-cloud frequency comparisons. For cloud thermodynamic phases in stratiform clouds, the E3SM underestimates cloud ice and overestimates cloud liquid at temperatures between -40 and 0°C. When latitudes increase, both observations and simulations show a transition of dominant phase from liquid to ice for cloud tops as well as for the entire cloud columns, but the model underestimation of ice phase is more severe at higher latitudes. Such model bias is unlikely caused by spatial scale differences or lack of heterogeneity in cloud vertical structure in the simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of stochastic coalescence variability on warm rain initiation using Lagrangian microphysics in box and large-eddy simulations

Various coalescence methods for Lagrangian microphysics schemes are tested in box and large-eddy simulation (LES) models, including the stochastic all-or-nothing super-droplet method (SDM) and a version of SDM (dSDM) that applies a fractional approach similar to the average impact method. In LES, variabilities driven by microphysics and by flow realizations are separated using the “piggybacking” technique. Rain initiation averaged over many realizations of the box model is delayed and rain variability increases as the number of super-drops per collision volume ( N SD ) is decreased using SDM. In contrast, rain initiation time using SDM in LES is insensitive to N SD for 32 ≤ N SD ≤ 512. This is explained through the interaction between LES grid boxes, each acting as a separate collision volume. Variability across the ensemble of LES collision volumes using SDM results in rain quickly initiating in some of the LES grid cells at low N SD and leading to a similar overall timing of rain initiation from the cloud compared to simulations with high N SD . There is a ~20% decrease in the total rain mass and mean rain flux as N SD is increased from 32 to 256, with little additional change as N SD is increased from 256 to 512. The fractional coalescence approach in dSDM leads to reduced microphysical variability and a 15-18 min delay in rain initiation compared to SDM. Finally, an additional LES ensemble with microphysical variability feeding back to the dynamics shows that flow variability dominates the impact of microphysical variability on rain properties. Thus, flow variability must be constrained to isolate impacts of microphysical variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Supersonic flow computations by two-equation turbulence modeling

In the present work a solver for the Reynolds averaged compressible Navier-Stokes equations, to compute high speed turbulent flows characterized by interacting shock waves and viscous layers, is presented. A k-epsilon turbulence model that accounts for compressibility effects is developed. The numerical algorithm is based on a finite volume multistage Runge Kutta technique that is explicit for the solution of the mean flow variables, and implicit for the solution of the k-epsilon equations. The model is validated by extensive comparison with experimental results of flows over compression ramps characterized by interacting shock waves/boundary layers.

Grasso, Francesco↗
NASA NTRS2022

NASA Symposium on Turbulence Modeling: Roadblocks, and the Potential for Machine Learning

A three-day symposium sponsored by NASA was held in July 2022 in Suffolk, Virginia on the subject of Turbulence Modeling: Roadblocks, and the Potential for Machine Learning. This meeting brought together over 80 experts from academia, government, and industry to discuss critical issues for Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes turbulence and transition models, as well as to evaluate the results from a collaborative testing challenge based on data-driven methods and machine learning technology. This report puts this symposium in context with an earlier similar meeting and summarizes many of the questions, discussions, and conclusions that arose from it. Next steps are suggested.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2021

Verification of a quasi-linear model for gyrokinetic turbulent transport

The verification and calibration of a new quasi-linear transport model with a large database of gyrokinetic turbulence simulations is presented in this paper. In a previous paper (Staebler et al 2020 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 63 015013), a model for the saturated spectrum of electric potential fluctuations was developed based on the properties of the non-linear 3D spectrum. In this paper, a modification to the overall multiplicative factor in this model is found to be necessary to improve the fit to scans of the temperature and density gradients. The error in the fit of the quasi-linear fluxes of electron and ion energy fluxes is significantly better than for previous saturation models. The spectral shift model for the impact of equilibrium E × B velocity shear (Staebler et al 2013 Phys. Rev. Lett. 110 055003) and the zonal flow mixing model for electron-scale turbulence (Staebler et al 2016 Phys. Plasmas 23 062518) are both revised to be compatible with this new model. Furthermore, the models for the loss of bounce averaging and electron collisions in the TGLF reduced linear equations (Staebler et al 2005 Phys. Plasmas 12 102508) are also changed to improve the linear eigenmodes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2018

GMI-IPS: Python Processing Software for Aircraft Campaigns

NASA's Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) seeks to understand the impact of anthropogenic air pollution on gases in the Earth's atmosphere. Four flight campaigns are being deployed on a seasonal basis to establish a continuous global-scale data set intended to improve the representation of chemically reactive gases in global atmospheric chemistry models. The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI), is creating chemical transport simulations on a global scale for each of the ATom flight campaigns. To meet the computational demands required to translate the GMI simulation data to grids associated with the flights from the ATom campaigns, the GMI ICARTT Processing Software (GMI-IPS) has been developed and is providing key functionality for data processing and analysis in this ongoing effort. The GMI-IPS is written in Python and provides computational kernels for data interpolation and visualization tasks on GMI simulation data. A key feature of the GMI-IPS, is its ability to read ICARTT files, a text-based file format for airborne instrument data, and extract the required flight information that defines regional and temporal grid parameters associated with an ATom flight. Perhaps most importantly, the GMI-IPS creates ICARTT files containing GMI simulated data, which are used in collaboration with ATom instrument teams and other modeling groups. The initial main task of the GMI-IPS is to interpolate GMI model data to the finer temporal resolution (1-10 seconds) of a given flight. The model data includes basic fields such as temperature and pressure, but the main focus of this effort is to provide species concentrations of chemical gases for ATom flights. The software, which uses parallel computation techniques for data intensive tasks, linearly interpolates each of the model fields to the time resolution of the flight. The temporally interpolated data is then saved to disk, and is used to create additional derived quantities. In order to translate the GMI model data to the spatial grid of the flight path as defined by the pressure, latitude, and longitude points at each flight time record, a weighted average is then calculated from the nearest neighbors in two dimensions (latitude, longitude). Using SciPya's Regular Grid Interpolator, interpolation functions are generated for the GMI model grid and the calculated weighted averages. The flight path points are then extracted from the ATom ICARTT instrument file, and are sent to the multi-dimensional interpolating functions to generate GMI field quantities along the spatial path of the flight. The interpolated field quantities are then written to a ICARTT data file, which is stored for further manipulation. The GMI-IPS is aware of a generic ATom ICARTT header format, containing basic information for all flight campaigns. The GMI-IPS includes logic to edit metadata for the derived field quantities, as well as modify the generic header data such as processing dates and associated instrument files. The ICARTT interpolated data is then appended to the modified header data, and the ICARTT processing is complete for the given flight and ready for collaboration. The output ICARTT data adheres to the ICARTT file format standards V1.1. The visualization component of the GMI-IPS uses Matplotlib extensively and has several functions ranging in complexity. First, it creates a model background curtain for the flight (time versus model eta levels) with the interpolated flight data superimposed on the curtain. Secondly, it creates a time-series plot of the interpolated flight data. Lastly, the visualization component creates averaged 2D model slices (longitude versus latitude) with overlaid flight track circles at key pressure levels. The GMI-IPS consists of a handful of classes and supporting functionality that have been generalized to be compatible with any ICARTT file that adheres to the base class definition. The base class represents a generic ICARTT entry, only defining a single time entry and 3D spatial positioning parameters. Other classes inherit from this base class; several classes for input ICARTT instrument files, which contain the necessary flight positioning information as a basis for data processing, as well as other classes for output ICARTT files, which contain the interpolated model data. Utility classes provide functionality for routine procedures such as: comparing field names among ICARTT files, reading ICARTT entries from a data file and storing them in data structures, and returning a reduced spatial grid based on a collection of ICARTT entries. Although the GMI-IPS is compatible with GMI model data, it can be adapted with reasonable effort for any simulation that creates Hierarchical Data Format (HDF) files. The same can be said of its adaptability to ICARTT files outside of the context of the ATom mission. The GMI-IPS contains just under 30,000 lines of code, eight classes, and a dozen drivers and utility programs. It is maintained with GIT source code management and has been used to deliver processed GMI model data for the ATom campaigns that have taken place to date.

Damon, M. R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving BC Mixing State and CCN Activity Representation With Machine Learning in the Community Atmosphere Model Version 6 (CAM6)

Abstract Representing mixing state of black carbon (BC) is challenging for global climate models (GCMs). The Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) with the four‐mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4) represents aerosols as fully internal mixtures with uniform composition within each aerosol mode, resulting in high degree of internal mixing of BC with non‐BC species and large mass ratio of coating to BC ( R BC , the mass ratio of non‐BC species to BC in BC‐containing particles). To improve BC mixing state representation, we coupled a machine learning (ML) model of BC mixing state index trained on particle‐resolved simulations to the CAM6 with MAM4 (MAM4‐ML). In MAM4‐ML, we use R BC to partition accumulation mode particles into two new modes, BC‐free particles and BC‐containing particles. We adjust R BC to make the modeled BC mixing state index ( χ mode ) match the one predicted by the ML model ( χ ML ). On a global average, the mass fraction of BC‐containing particles in accumulation mode decreases from 100% (MAM4‐default) to 48% (MAM4‐ML). The globally averaged χ mode decreases from 78% (MAM4‐default) to 63% (MAM4‐ML, 19% reduction) and agrees well with χ ML (66%). The R BC decreases by 52% for accumulation mode and better agrees with observations. The hygroscopicity drops by 9% for BC‐containing particles in accumulation mode, leading to a 20% reduction in the BC activation fraction. The surface BC concentration increases most (6.9%) in the Arctic, and the BC burden increases by 4%, globally. Our study highlights the application of the ML model for improving key aerosol processes in GCMs.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-model analysis of the impact of water vapor on the radiative forcing of volcanic aerosols after the 2022 Hunga Eruption

On 15 January 2022, the Hunga volcano eruption released unprecedented amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere alongside a modest amount of SO 2 . In this work we analyse results from multiple Earth system models as part of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison Project. Our results show a good model agreement over the climatic outcomes of the eruption, overall indicating a significant negative radiative forcing from the Hunga eruption. The multi-model mean of global instantaneous radiative forcing averaged over 2022–2023 is estimated at −0.19 ± 0.06 W m −2 at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), and −0.16 ± 0.06 W m −2 at the surface. Simulations with free-running meteorology and climatological sea surface temperatures and sea ice yield a global mean TOA forcing of −0.14 ± 0.10 W m −2 across two models for the first 2 years, decreasing to −0.09 ± 0.10 W m −2 on average between 2022 and 2027. However, these global values may be underestimated by about 50 %, considering that recent SO 2 injection retrievals suggest nearly twice the amount than the 0.5 Tg-SO 2 used in the protocol. We also find that the contribution from added stratospheric water vapor is minimal and that the injected SO 2 and the resulting formation of stratospheric sulfate dominate the radiative forcing. However, water vapor played a key role in the initial aerosol growth, leading to a stronger negative radiative forcing during the first 6 months after the eruption compared to simulations without water vapor co-injection.

Geosciences↗
NASA NTRS2004

Towards a High Temporal Frequency Grass Canopy Thermal IR Model for Background Signatures

In this paper, we present our first results towards understanding high temporal frequency thermal infrared response from a dense plant canopy and compare the application of our model, driven both by slowly varying, time-averaged meteorological conditions and by high frequency measurements of local and within canopy profiles of relative humidity and wind speed, to high frequency thermal infrared observations. Previously, we have employed three-dimensional ray tracing to compute the intercepted and scattered radiation fluxes and for final scene rendering. For the turbulent fluxes, we employed simple resistance models for latent and sensible heat with one-dimensional profiles of relative humidity and wind speed. Our modeling approach has proven successful in capturing the directional and diurnal variation in background thermal infrared signatures. We hypothesize that at these scales, where the model is typically driven by time-averaged, local meteorological conditions, the primary source of thermal variance arises from the spatial distribution of sunlit and shaded foliage elements within the canopy and the associated radiative interactions. In recent experiments, we have begun to focus on the high temporal frequency response of plant canopies in the thermal infrared at 1 second to 5 minute intervals. At these scales, we hypothesize turbulent mixing plays a more dominant role. Our results indicate that in the high frequency domain, the vertical profile of temperature change is tightly coupled to the within canopy wind speed In the results reported here, the canopy cools from the top down with increased wind velocities and heats from the bottom up at low wind velocities. .

Ballard, Jerrell R., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Incorporation of an Energy Equation into a Pulsed Inductive Thruster Performance Model

A model for pulsed inductive plasma acceleration containing an energy equation to account for the various sources and sinks in such devices is presented. The model consists of a set of circuit equations coupled to an equation of motion and energy equation for the plasma. The latter two equations are obtained for the plasma current sheet by treating it as a one-element finite volume, integrating the equations over that volume, and then matching known terms or quantities already calculated in the model to the resulting current sheet-averaged terms in the equations. Calculations showing the time-evolution of the various sources and sinks in the system are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the model, with two separate resistivity models employed to show an example of how the plasma transport properties can affect the calculation. While neither resistivity model is fully accurate, the demonstration shows that it is possible within this modeling framework to time-accurately update various plasma parameters.

Polzin, Kurt A.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Transonic viscous flow calculations for a turbine cascade with a two equation turbulence model

A numerical method for the study of steady, transonic, turbulent viscous flow through plane turbine cascades is presented. The governing equations are written in Favre-averaged form and closed with a first order model. The turbulent quantities are expressed according to a two-equation kappa-epsilon model where low Reynolds number and compressibility effects are included. The solution is obtained by using a pseudo-unsteady method with improved perturbation propagation properties. The equations are discretized in space by using a finite volume formulation. An explicit multistage dissipative Runge-Kutta algorithm is then used to advance the flow equations in the pseudo-time. First results of calculations compare fairly well with experimental data.

Boretti, A. A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A regional analysis of cloudy mean spherical albedo over the marine stratocumulus region and the tropical Atlantic Ocean

Since clouds are the largest variable in Earth's radiation budget, it is critical to determine both the spatial and temporal characteristics of their radiative properties. The relationships between cloud properties and cloud fraction are studied in order to supplement grid scale parameterizations. The satellite data used is from three hourly ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) and monthly ERBE (Earth Radiation Budget Experiment) data on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg latitude-longitude grid. Mean cloud spherical albedo, the mean optical depth distribution, and cloud fraction are examined and compared off the coast of California and the mid-tropical Atlantic for July 1987 and 1988. Individual grid boxes and spatial averages over several grid boxes are correlated to Coakley's theory of reflection for uniform and broken layered cloud and to Kedem, et al.'s findings that rainfall volume and fractional area of rain in convective systems is linear. Kedem's hypothesis can be expressed in terms of cloud properties. That is, the total volume of liquid in a box is a linear function of cloud fraction. Results for the marine stratocumulus regime indicate that albedo is often invariant for cloud fractions of 20% to 80%. Coakley's satellite model of small and large clouds with cores (1 km) and edges (100 m) is consistent with this observation. The cores maintain high liquid water concentrations and large droplets while the edges contain low liquid water concentrations and small droplets. Large clouds are just a collection of cores. The mean optical depth (TAU) distributions support the above observation with TAU values of 3.55 to 9.38 favored across all cloud fractions. From these results, a method based upon Kedem, et al's theory is proposed to separate the cloud fraction and liquid water path (LWP) calculations in a general circulation model (GCM). In terms of spatial averaging, a linear relationship between albedo and cloud fraction is observed. For tropical locations outside the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), results of cloud fraction and albedo spatial averaging followed that of the stratus boxes containing few overcast scenes. Both the ideas of Coakley and Kedem, et al. apply. Within the ITCZ, the grid boxes tended to have the same statistical properties as stratus boxes containing many overcast scenes. Because different dynamical forcing mechanisms are present, it is difficult to devise a method for determining subgrid scale variations. Neither of the theories proposed by Kedem, et al. or Coakley works well for the boxes with numerous overcast scenes.

Ginger, Kathryn M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A Regional Analysis of Cloudy Mean Spherical Albedo over the Marine Stratocumulus Region and the Tropical Atlantic Ocean

Since clouds are the largest variable in Earth's radiation budget, it is critical to determine both the spatial and temporal characteristics of their radiative properties. This study examines the relationships between cloud properties and cloud fraction in order to supplement grid scale parameterizations. The satellite data used in this study is from three hourly ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) and monthly ERBE (Earth Radiation Budget Experiment) data on a 2.50 x 2.50 latitude-longitude grid. Mean cloud spherical albedo, the mean optical depth distribution and cloud fraction are examined and compared off the coast of California and the mid-tropical Atlantic for July 1987 and 1988. Individual grid boxes and spatial averages over several grid boxes are correlated to Coakleys (1991) theory of reflection for uniform and broken layered cloud and to Kedem, et al.(1990) findings that rainfall volume and fractional area of rain in convective systems is linear. Kedem's hypothesis can be expressed in terms of cloud properties. That is, the total volume of liquid in a box is a linear function of cloud fraction. Results for the marine stratocumulus regime indicate that albedo is often invariant for cloud fractions of 20% to 80%. Coakley's satellite model of small and large clouds with cores (1 km) and edges (100 in) is consistent with this observation. The cores maintain high liquid water concentrations and large droplets while the edges contain low liquid water concentrations and small droplets. Large clouds are just a collection of cores. The mean optical depth (TAU) distributions support the above observation with TAU values of 3.55 to 9.38 favored across all cloud fractions. From these results, a method based upon Kedem, et al. theory is proposed to separate the cloud fraction and liquid water path (LWP) calculations in a general circulation model (GCM). In terms of spatial averaging, a linear relationship between albedo and cloud fraction is observed. For tropical locations outside the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), results of cloud fraction and albedo spatial averaging followed that of the stratus boxes containing few overcast scenes. Both the ideas of Coakley and Kedem, et al. apply. Within the ITCZ, the grid boxes tended to have the same statistical properties as stratus boxes containing many overcast scenes. Because different dynamical forcing mechanisms are present, it is difficult to devise a method for determining subgrid scale variations. Neither of the theories proposed by Kedem, et al. or Coakley works well for the boxes with numerous overcast scenes.

Ginger, Kathryn M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Verification Test Suite for Spalart-Allmaras QCR2000 Turbulence Model

The paper presents three benchmark cases for verification of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solvers. The verification studies focus on a one-equation Spalart-Allmaras model, SA-[neg]-QCR2000, that uses a version of quadratic constitutive relations.The benchmark cases are a two-dimensional subsonic flow around a Joukowski airfoil, a three-dimensional supersonic flow through a square duct, and a three-dimensional flow over a wing-fuselage configuration. The turbulence-model formulation, geometry, flow conditions, grids, and the expected output are described in detail. Reference solutions computed by several established codes are shown

Computational Aerodynamics↗
NASA NTRS2021

The PMIP4 Last Glacial Maximum experiments: preliminary results and comparison with the PMIP3 simulations

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future using paleoclimate reconstructions. A new generation of climate models has been used to generate LGM simulations as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Here, we provide a preliminary analysis and evaluation of the results of these LGM experiments (PMIP4, most of which are PMIP4-CMIP6) and compare them with the previous generation of simulations (PMIP3, most of which are PMIP3-CMIP5). We show that the global averages of the PMIP4 simulations span a larger range in terms of mean annual surface air temperature and mean annual precipitation compared to the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations, with some PMIP4 simulations reaching a globally colder and drier state. However, the multi-model global cooling average is similar for the PMIP4 and PMIP3 ensembles, while the multi-model PMIP4 mean annual precipitation average is drier than the PMIP3 one. There are important differences in both atmospheric and oceanic circulations between the two sets of experiments, with the northern and southern jet streams being more poleward and the changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation being less pronounced in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations than in the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations. Changes in simulated precipitation patterns are influenced by both temperature and circulation changes. Differences in simulated climate between individual models remain large. Therefore, although there are differences in the average behaviour across the two ensembles, the new simulation results are not fundamentally different from the PMIP3-CMIP5 results. Evaluation of large-scale climate features, such as land–sea contrast and polar amplification, confirms that the models capture these well and within the uncertainty of the paleoclimate reconstructions. Nevertheless, regional climate changes are less well simulated: the models underestimate extratropical cooling, particularly in winter, and precipitation changes. These results point to the utility of using paleoclimate simulations to understand the mechanisms of climate change and evaluate model performance.

Last Glacial Maximum↗
NASA NTRS2011

Climate Hazard Assessment for Stakeholder Adaptation Planning in New York City

This paper describes a time-sensitive approach to climate change projections, developed as part of New York City's climate change adaptation process, that has provided decision support to stakeholders from 40 agencies, regional planning associations, and private companies. The approach optimizes production of projections given constraints faced by decision makers as they incorporate climate change into long-term planning and policy. New York City stakeholders, who are well-versed in risk management, helped pre-select the climate variables most likely to impact urban infrastructure, and requested a projection range rather than a single 'most likely' outcome. The climate projections approach is transferable to other regions and consistent with broader efforts to provide climate services, including impact, vulnerability, and adaptation information. The approach uses 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios to calculate monthly change factors based on 30-year average future time slices relative to a 30- year model baseline. Projecting these model mean changes onto observed station data for New York City yields dramatic changes in the frequency of extreme events such as coastal flooding and dangerous heat events. Based on these methods, the current 1-in-10 year coastal flood is projected to occur more than once every 3 years by the end of the century, and heat events are projected to approximately triple in frequency. These frequency changes are of sufficient magnitude to merit consideration in long-term adaptation planning, even though the precise changes in extreme event frequency are highly uncertain

Horton, Radley M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the effectiveness of neural operators at zero-shot weather downscaling

Machine-learning (ML) methods have shown great potential for weather downscaling. These data-driven approaches provide a more efficient alternative for producing high-resolution weather datasets and forecasts compared to physics-based numerical simulations. Neural operators, which learn solution operators for a family of partial differential equations, have shown great success in scientific ML applications involving physics-driven datasets. Neural operators are grid-resolution-invariant and are often evaluated on higher grid resolutions than they are trained on, i.e., zero-shot super-resolution. Given their promising zero-shot super-resolution performance on dynamical systems emulation, we present a critical investigation of their zero-shot weather downscaling capabilities, which is when models are tasked with producing high-resolution outputs using higher upsampling factors than are seen during training. To this end, we create two realistic downscaling experiments with challenging upsampling factors (e.g., 8x and 15x) across data from different simulations: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) and the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit. While neural operator-based downscaling models perform better than interpolation and a simple convolutional baseline, we show the surprising performance of an approach that combines a powerful transformer-based model with parameter-free interpolation at zero-shot weather downscaling. We find that this Swin-Transformer-based approach mostly outperforms models with neural operator layers in terms of average error metrics, whereas an Enhanced Super-Resolution Generative Adversarial Network-based approach is better than most models in terms of capturing the physics of the ground truth data. We suggest their use in future work as strong baselines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗