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Wind Energy Accomplishments and Year-End Performance Report: Fiscal Year 2024

As the largest source of clean, renewable power generation in the United States and one of the fastest growing sources of new electricity supply, wind energy will play a large role in the nation's energy future. In Fiscal Year (FY) 2024, scientists, engineers, analysts, and support professionals at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) worked to accelerate the pace of innovation in wind energy science and technology, advance grid systems integration, and develop sustainable solutions to deployment challenges. Much of NREL's research, development, and deployment work aligns with addressing the Grand Challenges of Wind Energy. Beginning in 2019, DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office partnered with the International Energy Agency to identify the barriers to greater wind energy deployment and related research gaps. The world's leading wind energy scientists and engineers identified five research areas as critical to advancing wind energy deployment: wind atmospheric science, wind turbine systems, wind plants and grid, environmental co-design, and social science. In FY 2024, NREL's accomplishments helped narrow the research gaps in these critical areas. This report provides details on those accomplishments.

accomplishments↗

Flow Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) Wind Plant Power Production Data Sets

This dataset contains turbine- and plant-level power outputs for 252,500 cases of diverse wind plant layouts operating under a wide range of yawing and atmospheric conditions. The power outputs were computed using the Gaussian wake model in NREL's FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) model, version 2.3.0. The 252,500 cases include 500 unique wind plants generated randomly by a specialized Plant Layout Generator (PLayGen) that samples randomized realizations of wind plant layouts from one of four canonical configurations: (i) cluster, (ii) single string, (iii) multiple string, (iv) parallel string. Other wind plant layout parameters were also randomly sampled, including the number of turbines (25-200) and the mean turbine spacing (3D-10D, where D denotes the turbine rotor diameter). For each layout, 500 different sets of atmospheric conditions were randomly sampled. These include wind speed in 0-25 m/s, wind direction in 0 deg.-360 deg., and turbulence intensity chosen from low (6%), medium (8%), and high (10%). For each atmospheric inflow scenario, the individual turbine yaw angles were randomly sampled from a one-sided truncated Gaussian on the interval 0 deg.-30 deg. oriented relative to wind inflow direction. This random data is supplemented with a collection of yaw-optimized samples where FLORIS was used to determine turbine yaw angles that maximize power production for the entire plant. To generate this data, a subset of cases were selected (50 atmospheric conditions from 50 layouts each for a total of additional 2,500 cases) for which FLORIS was re-run with wake steering control optimization. The IEA onshore reference turbine, which has a 130 m rotor diameter, a 110 m hub height, and a rated power capacity of 3.4 MW was used as the turbine for all simulations. The simulations were performed using NREL's Eagle high performance computing system in February 2021 as part of the Spatial Analysis for Wind Technology Development project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office. The data was collected, reformatted, and preprocessed for this OEDI submission in May 2023 under the Foundational AI for Wind Energy project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office. This dataset is intended to serve as a benchmark against which new artificial intelligence (AI) or machine learning (ML) tools may be tested. Baseline AI/ML methods for analyzing this dataset have been implemented, and a link to their repository containing those models has been provided. The .h5 data file structure can be found in the GitHub repository under explore_wind_plant_data_h5.ipynb.

AI↗

Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Wind Energy

Global wind resources greatly exceed current electricity demand and the levelized cost of energy from wind turbines has shown precipitous declines. Accordingly, the installed capacity of wind turbines grew at an annualized rate of about 14% during the last two decades and wind turbines now provide ~6–7% of the global electricity supply. This renewable electricity generation source is thus already playing a role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. Here we document trends within the industry, examine projections of future installed capacity increases and compute the associated climate change mitigation potential at the global and regional levels. Key countries (the USA, UK and China) and regions (e.g., EU27) have developed ambitious plans to expand wind energy penetration as core aspects of their net-zero emissions strategies. The projected climate change mitigation from wind energy by 2100 ranges from 0.3–0.8 °C depending on the precise socio-economic pathway and wind energy expansion scenario followed. The rapid expansion of annual increments to wind energy installed capacity by approximately two times current rates can greatly delay the passing of the 2 °C warming threshold relative to pre-industrial levels. To achieve the required expansion of this cost-effective, low-carbon energy source, there is a need for electrification of the energy system and for expansion of manufacturing and installation capacity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Performance of wind assessment datasets in United States coastal areas

The atmospheric dynamics that occur near the intersection of land and water offer exciting and challenging opportunities for wind energy deployment in coastal locations. New models and tools are continually being developed in support of wind resource assessment, and three recent products are explored in this work for their performance in representing characteristics of the wind resource at coastal locations: the Global Wind Atlas 3 (GWA3), the 2023 National Offshore Wind dataset (NOW-23), and the wind climate simulations that are a component of the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit Long-Term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED Climate). These relatively new products are freely available and user-friendly so that anyone – from a utility-scale developer to a resident or business owner – can evaluate the potential for wind energy generation at their location of interest. The validations in this work provide guidance on the accuracy of wind resource assessments for coastal customers interested in installing small or midsize wind turbines (≤ 1 MW in capacity) to support energy needs at the residential, business, or community scale, such as the island and remotely located participants of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project. At 23 coastal locations across the United States, dataset performance varies according to different evaluation metrics. All three recent datasets tend to overestimate the observed coastal wind resource. GWA3 produces the smallest annual average wind speed relative errors, whereas WTK-LED Climate is in best agreement in terms of representing diurnal wind speed cycles. NOW-23 is the highest performing of the datasets for representing seasonal and interannual trends in the coastal wind resource. While GWA3 and WTK-LED Climate are relatively insensitive to the dataset output heights selected for wind resource assessment at small and midsize wind turbine hub heights (20–60 m), significant variation in the NOW-23 representation of wind shear across the wind profile in the lowest 100 m of the atmosphere leads to notable differences in wind speed estimates according to the dataset output heights selected for evaluation. GWA3 exhibits challenges in the representation of observed wind speed diurnal cycles at small and midsize turbine hub heights, likely due to the dataset's consistent treatment of hourly wind speed trends regardless of altitude.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Assessing the Performance of a Circular Economy for Wind Energy Technologies: A Summary of Three Analytical Tools

A circular economy emphasizes the efficient use of all resources and presents opportunities for addressing series of economic and environmental objectives at local, regional, and national levels. Despite anticipated overall benefits to society, the transition to a circular economy is likely to create regional differences in impacts. As a result, it is important to evaluate the performance and tradeoffs associated with circular economy transitions. This poster summaries three previously published analytical tools that were used to assess the performance of developing a circular economy for wind energy technologies: the Renewable Energy Materials Properties Database (REMPD), a circular economy agent-based model for wind blades (CE Wind ABM), and the Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and Visualization (CELAVI) framework. The REMPD is a comprehensive database of materials used in wind and solar plants, including material quantities and physical materials availability. The CE Wind ABM allows us to understand how wind stakeholders' end-of-life behaviors influence wind blade circularity and evaluate the impact of regional variables (e.g., logistics and transportation). And, the CELAVI framework is a modular framework that can be used to evaluate the impacts associated with circular economy transitions. These three analytical tools have been applied to evaluate circular economy transitions for wind energy technologies and they could be expanded to other technologies and products.

agent-based modeling↗

Categorizing distributed wind energy installations in the United States to inform research and stakeholder priorities

Abstract Background Distributed wind energy adoption in the United States can contribute to the diverse portfolio of energy technologies needed to achieve ambitious decarbonization goals. However, with limited deployment to date, the current distributed wind market must be better understood; these efforts will support the range of stakeholders who will drive successful deployment. This article first distinguishes three categories of distributed wind from existing literature: (1) behind the meter, (2) intended for explicit local load, and (3) physically distributed. A novel methodology to classify individual wind installations into each of these categories is then presented and applied to two data sets of wind installations in the United States to categorize and illuminate distinct segments in the distributed wind market. Results Physically distributed installations, constituted by small to moderately sized projects serving local loads on distribution systems solely because of their proximity to them, account for the highest amount of capacity but the lowest number of installations out of the three categories. The inverse is true for behind-the-meter installations, which are used to serve on-site loads. Installations intended for explicit local load, which are interconnected on the utility side of the distribution system and intentionally built to provide energy to loads on the same distribution system, rank in the middle for both installed capacity and number of installations. Conclusions Distributed wind energy deployment in the United States is geographically widespread, but the extent to which a single category is developed in each state varies. Policies, wind resources, and broad energy technology trends contribute to these deployment patterns. By identifying the extent to which each category of installations exists, decision-makers are empowered with data necessary to tailor research and development programs and address stakeholder priorities through policy and other means, ultimately supporting future deployment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Identifying Meteorological Drivers for Errors in Modeled Winds along the Northern California Coast

Abstract An accurate wind resource dataset is required for assessing the potential energy yield of floating offshore wind farms that are expected along the California outer continental shelf. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has developed and disseminated an updated wind resource dataset offshore of California, using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, referred to as the CA20 dataset. As compared to buoy lidar measurements that have become available recently, the CA20 dataset showed significant positive biases for 100-m wind speeds along Northern California wind energy lease areas. To investigate the meteorological drivers for the model errors, we first consider two 1-yr simulations run with two different planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations: the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) PBL scheme (the chosen configuration in the CA20 dataset) and the Yonsei University PBL scheme (which significantly reduces the bias in modeled winds). By comparing the 1-yr simulations to the concurrent lidar buoy observations, we find that errors are larger with the MYNN PBL scheme in warm seasons. We then dive deeper into the analysis by running simulations for short-term (3-day) case studies to evaluate the sensitivity of initial/boundary condition forcings on model results. By analyzing the short-term simulations, we find that during synoptic-scale northerly flows driven by the North Pacific high and inland thermal low, a coastal warm bias in the MYNN simulation is mainly responsible for the modeled wind speed bias by altering the boundary layer thermodynamics. The results of our analysis will help guide the creation of an updated version of the CA20 dataset.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Public perceptions of wave energy development on the west coast of North America: Risks, benefits, and coastal attachment

While solar and wind energy continue to grow as significant sources of renewable energy, a global energy transition away from fossil fuels will require an expanding portfolio of generating resources. Marine renewable energy has the potential to contribute greatly in the coming decades, as the more predictable nature of wave energy can support the resiliency of the power grid and complement solar and inland wind generation. Yet, the broad deployment of marine energy technologies like wave energy will depend on public support, making it critical to identify the relevant factors associated with public attitudes and risk/benefit perceptions. This paper draws on social representations theory to specifically examine perceptions of wave energy on the west coast of North America, a site chosen because of the high suitability for wave energy generation and the fact that one of only three wave energy test sites in the world is under development off the coast of Oregon. Using an online survey in June 2020, we recruited a sample of 2000 respondents from California, Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. We found a majority of respondents held positive attitudes to wave energy, but respondents also had low familiarity – with a quarter of respondents lacking sufficient information to form an opinion. We used logistic regression to identify factors correlated with wave energy attitudes, finding that respondents who were more supportive of wind and solar energy, more optimistic about new technology, and reported more familiarity with wave energy were significantly more likely to have a positive impression of wave energy. Respondents with higher levels of place attachment to coastal areas were more split, as they perceived higher benefits of wave energy – but also higher risks. Our results indicate broad appeal of wave energy on the west coast, but we caution policymakers and developers to not take initial siting processes for granted. As experience has shown for offshore wind, broad appeal does not guarantee a smooth siting process in a local context. Furthermore, the role of place attachment to coastal areas must be taken seriously or risk alienating local communities.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Cybersecurity concerns for the energy sector in the maritime domain

The world has seen a number of high-profile maritime disasters in recent months and years, and has felt the impact of them. At the same time, the world has also seen a number of high-profile cyberattacks. It has felt their impact, as well. And, likely no sector has been more affected by the maritime and cyber incidents than the energy sector, as fuel prices often spike or trough, and access to energy resources can become an instant source of concern, tension, or even conflict. As energy sectors—in all their forms—continue to rely on the maritime domain or even increase that reliance, they must be mindful that traditional maritime threats—like piracy, theft, and weather events—are not the only threats they face today. Maritime cybersecurity concerns are among the most potentially disruptive to energy-sector interests and, yet, are among the least understood and least addressed. This paper identifies nine areas in which the energy sector faces harmful cyber vulnerabilities in the maritime domain, to provide enough insight and examples to allow for action to be taken to reduce the risk of harm from these different vulnerabilities. The paper develops the example of offshore wind energy to model how to assess cyber considerations more fully. Ultimately, it concludes with a series of recommendations that offer policymakers, energy-sector actors, and security and law-enforcement professionals steps to minimize the exposure of the maritime energy sector to harmful cyberattacks.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Community-Scale Solar Deployment in the Northwest Arctic

NANA Regional Corporation (NRC, or NANA) was formed as an Alaska Native Corporation (ANC) pursuant to the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act of 1971. Our lands cover 39,000 square miles of the Northwest Arctic region of Alaska. We partner closely with the Northwest Arctic Borough (NAB) and our 11 remote communities on numerous projects and activities, especially around clean energy initiatives that improve quality of life and help to reduce extremely high energy costs experienced by the communities in our region. Collectively, the regional partnership has developed numerous successful solar, wind, biomass, and energy storage, distribution upgrade, and efficiency projects. To further progress, we created the Northwest Arctic Energy Steering Committee to share and replicate these benefits across the region. NANA’s mission is to provide economic opportunities for our more than 13,500 Iñupiat shareholders and to protect and enhance NANA lands.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Optimal Dispatch for the US Virgin Islands to Increase Renewable Rates in Saint Croix

The US Virgin Islands, like many other small island nations, face significant challenges related to its energy supply. Their dependency on imported fossil fuels not only drives up energy costs, but also contributes to different environmental problems. Nevertheless, their generally sunny and windy climate makes this archipelago an ideal location for renewable energy development. Increasing the use of sources such as wind, and solar can help reduce their energy dependency, lower their levelized cost of electricity, and improve the health and wellbeing of local communities. In this paper, an optimal dispatcher is employed to analyze the implications on energy security of employing different technology options according to the plans of the local system operator. In this context, short term stability is ensured by inserting operational constraints in the energy management system based on stability analysis developed in PSCAD. The results highlight the usefulness of integrating PV and battery system, while further analysis are required to justify integrating wind power.

energy islands↗

Gulf of Mexico Offshore Wind Energy Hurricane Risk Assessment

NREL's feasibility assessment of offshore wind in the Gulf of Mexico concluded that hurricane risk was one of the major challenges that would need to be overcome for a mature offshore wind industry to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. To ensure the robust design of wind turbines in the Gulf of Mexico, it is critical to understand the added risk posed by the threat of major hurricanes, as those affecting the Gulf of Mexico region have a significant potential to exceed design limits prescribed by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) wind design standards. To satisfy this charge, this project defines the wind hazard for the Gulf of Mexico Offshore Wind Energy area using the hurricane hazard model develop by Applied Research Associates and published extensively in the open literature. In doing so, the return periods associated with the IEC Class 1A and Typhoon Class limit-state hurricanes are estimated on a grid with nominal resolution of 10 km to determine where hurricane risk results in the exceedance of the IEC design criteria. On the same grid, wind speeds hazard contours associated with return periods varying from 50 to 1,000 years are also estimated. An additional challenge in assessing hurricane wind speed risk in the Gulf of Mexico arises from inconsistent terminology across the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale and the IEC design criteria. Saffir-Simpson definitions are based on 1-minute sustained wind speeds estimated at 10-m height over marine terrain, while the IEC uses a different averaging period (3-second versus 1-minute) and reference height (assumed herein a hub height of 150 m versus 10 m). Employing the latest research on turbulence characteristics of the hurricane boundary layer, conversions between various durations (e.g., 3-seconds, 1-minute, 10-minutes, 1-hour) and between elevations near the surface (10 m) to near hub height (assumed herein 150 m) are developed. IEC Class 1A and Typhoon Class limit states are also provided in terms of an equivalent Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind speed category.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

GE 1.5 ESS Wind Turbine Retrofit Controller Development (CRADA Final Report)

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Bachmann electronic corp. will collaborate on the development of a software application to be used on an existing aftermarket Bachmann controller, utilizing and existing Bachmann software platform, which will be used on the General Electric (GE) 1.5 ESS wind turbine. This retrofit will significantly enhance NREL’s ability to control experiments it is planning to conduct on the GE 1.5 wind turbine as part of the Gearbox Reliability Collaborative, Atmosphere to Electrons and other future R&D. The proposed work is leveraging ongoing Department of Energy (DOE) Annual Operating Plan activities on the GE 1.5 ESS wind turbine at the National Wind Technology Center.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Searay Autonomous Offshore Power System AOPS: Results of Sea Trials and Payload Support Demonstration

As the offshore energy sector looks to fully implement resident, autonomous, robotic, digital systems offshore, one missing piece of the puzzle is remote power generation. Further complicating these efforts are the owner/operators’ move towards net zero operations. Here, the combination represents a significant dilemma for the offshore energy industry: if gensets and topside vessels are not appropriate or practical power sources for future resident systems, how will these needed cost and carbon-saving innovations come to market and get deployed in the field?

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Expected occurrence of wildlife in US Atlantic offshore wind areas

Offshore wind energy has entered a pivotal phase of development for the U.S. Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), a region that supports critical habitats, migratory corridors and flyways for many marine species. Assessing where and when marine wildlife occurs is a crucial first step in developing a risk assessment framework to evaluate potential risks and impacts of offshore wind development. In this study, we perform this initial assessment by evaluating the expected occurrence of marine mammal, seabird and sea turtle taxa in areas of interest to identify patterns and potential areas of concern. Specifically, this work depicts the expected monthly density of 84 marine species and taxa within each of the 29 active wind energy lease areas plus a 10 km buffer to account for nearby activity. We then compare these densities to subregional thresholds, evaluated as the 90th percentile of the subregion’s monthly density, to provide comparisons across the shelf region. This analysis synthesizes the most recent spatial distribution models of 31 marine mammal taxa (26 species and 5 guilds), 49 seabird species and 4 sea turtle species to provide a unified evaluation of the major marine wildlife in the region. Out of the 84 species and taxa analyzed, 56 exhibit levels of expected density in wind energy areas that exceed the corresponding 90th percentile subregional threshold at some point throughout the year. These results represent an initial assessment in the broader Occurrence, Exposure, Response, and Consequence (OERC) framework, originally developed by the U.S. Navy for marine species risk assessments. These results offer valuable guidance to marine spatial planners, management agencies and offshore wind developers on the expected locations and timing of interaction risk to wildlife species in or near wind energy areas across the region.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Accomplishments and Mid-Year Performance Report: Wind Energy Program Fiscal Year 2020

Through transformative science and innovation, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Flatirons Campus helps lead the way to a sustainable energy future that powers America with significant levels of reliable, low-cost, and accessible wind energy. Since 1976, NREL has provided an ideal environment for the research and development (R&D) of advanced energy technologies through: Wind energy resource assessments, World-class research facilities, High-performance computing and modeling, Data and technology analysis, Manufacturing breakthroughs, Environmental analysis and wildlife conservation efforts, Education and training programs for a future workforce. These activities enable the innovations needed to advance U.S. wind systems, address market and deployment barriers, and drive down the cost of wind energy with more efficient, more reliable, and more predictable wind energy systems. This report provides an overview of the achievements NREL delivered on behalf of DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) and other partners during the first and second quarters of Fiscal Year (FY) 2020.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

Valuation of Wind Energy Turbines Using Volatility of Wind and Price

The limitedness of the nonrenewable local energy resources in Israel, even in the background of the later gas fields’ findings, continues to force the state to devote various efforts towards ‘green’ energy development. These efforts include installations, both for the solar and for wind energy, thus improving the diversity of energy sources. While the standard discounted cash flow (DCF) method using the net present value (NPV) criterion is extensively adopted to evaluate investments, the standard DCF method is inappropriate for the rapidly changing investment climate and for the managerial flexibility in investment decisions. In recent years, the real options analysis (ROA) technique has been widely applied in many studies for the valuation of renewable energy investment projects. Taking into account the above background, we apply, in this study, the real options analysis approach for the valuation of wind energy turbines and apply it to the analysis of wind energy economic potential in Israel, which is the context of our work. We hypothesize that due to nature of wind energy production uncertainties, the ROA method is better than the alternative. The novelty of this paper includes the following: real world wind statistics of the Merom Golan site in Israel (velocity 3.73 m/s, with a standard deviation of 2.03 m/s), a realistic power generation estimation (power generation of 1205.84 kW with a standard deviation of about 0.5% in annual value which is worth about 1.3 M$ per annum), and an economic model to evaluate the profitability of such a project. We thus discuss the existing challenges of diversifying renewable energy sources in Israel by adding wind installations. Our motivation is to introduce a method which will allow investors and officials to take into account uncertainties when deciding in investing in such wind installations. The outcomes of the paper, which are obtained using the method of Weibull statistics and the Black–Scholes ROA technique, include the result that market price volatility adds to the uncertainties much more than any wind fluctuations, provided that the analysis is integrated over a long enough time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗