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DOE OSTI2023

Projections of wildfire risk and activities under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios

Wildfires are important ecosystem processes that have a significant impact on terrestrial vegetation, environment, and climate. This study investigates how future wildfire risk and activities could change under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios relative to pre-industrial levels using a modified McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDIn) and the CLM4.5-BGC land surface model. Sixteen Earth System Models (ESMs) from CMIP5 and CMIP6 were employed to supply the variables of climate change under low, middle, and high greenhouse emission scenarios in the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios. The ensemble means from the FFDIn and results from the CLM4.5-BGC with multiple forcings show that the dry areas in the southwestern US, Brazilian Highlands, and Arabian islands are projected to face higher wildfire risk with larger burned areas and more carbon emissions under a warmer climate. The Congo Basin and part of the Amazon could have a lower wildfire risk with smaller burned areas and less carbon emissions. The absolute changes in the projected FFDIn are small, although large increases are observed in boreal areas, particularly in the winter and spring. Burned area and carbon emissions are projected to increase in general in the boreal area but decrease in northeastern Asia. Compared to the 1.5 °C scenario, the wildfire risk and burned area levels are projected to increase under the 2.0 °C scenario except in the western Amazon. However, fire carbon emissions are projected to decrease more in tropical areas under the 2.0 °C scenario. The different change directions in eastern North America and eastern China produced by the FFDIn and CLM4.5-BGC suggest the potential effect of non-meteorological elements on fire activities.

1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming↗

DOE OSTI2023

Linking repeat lidar with Landsat products for large scale quantification of fire-induced permafrost thaw settlement in interior Alaska

The permafrost–fire–climate system has been a hotspot in research for decades under a warming climate scenario. Surface vegetation plays a dominant role in protecting permafrost from summer warmth, thus, any alteration of vegetation structure, particularly following severe wildfires, can cause dramatic top–down thaw. A challenge in understanding this is to quantify fire-induced thaw settlement at large scales (>1000 km 2 ). In this study, we explored the potential of using Landsat products for a large-scale estimation of fire-induced thaw settlement across a well-studied area representative of ice-rich lowland permafrost in interior Alaska. Six large fires have affected ~1250 km 2 of the area since 2000. We first identified the linkage of fires, burn severity, and land cover response, and then developed an object-based machine learning ensemble approach to estimate fire-induced thaw settlement by relating airborne repeat lidar data to Landsat products. The model delineated thaw settlement patterns across the six fire scars and explained ~65% of the variance in lidar-detected elevation change. Our results indicate a combined application of airborne repeat lidar and Landsat products is a valuable tool for large scale quantification of fire-induced thaw settlement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2023

Modeling Global Indices for Estimating Non-Photosynthetic Vegetation Cover

Non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) includes plant litter, senesced leaves, and crop residues. NPV plays an essential role in terrestrial ecosystem processes, and is an important indicator of drought severity, ecosystem disturbance, agricultural resilience, and wildfire danger. Current moderate spatial resolution multispectral satellite systems (e.g., Landsat and Sentinel-2) have only a single band in the 2000–2500 nm shortwave infrared “SWIR2” range where non-pigment biochemical constituents of NPV, including cellulose and lignin, have important spectral absorption features. Thus, these current systems have suboptimal capabilities for characterizing NPV cover. This research used simulated spectral mixtures accounting for variability among NPV and soils to evaluate globally-appropriate hyperspectral and multispectral indices for estimation of fractional NPV cover. The Continuum Interpolated NPV Depth Index (CINDI), a weighted ratio index measuring lignocellulose absorption near 2100 nm, was found to produce the lowest error in estimating NPV cover. CINDI was less sensitive to variability in soil spectra and green vegetation cover than competing indices. While CINDI was sensitive to the relative water content of soil and NPV, this sensitivity allowed for correcting error in estimated NPV cover as water content increased. CINDI bands were less capable than Dual Absorption NPV Index (DANI) bands for maintaining continuity with the heritage Landsat SWIR2 band, but combining multiple CINDI bands demonstrated adequate continuity. Three SWIR2 bands with band centers at 2038, 2108, and 2211 nm can provide superior capabilities for future moderate resolution multispectral/superspectral systems targeting NPV monitoring, including the next generation Landsat mission (Landsat Next). These bands and the associated CINDI index provide potential for global NPV monitoring using a constellation of future superspectral sensors and imaging spectrometers, with applications including improving soil management, preventing land degradation, evaluating impacts of drought, mapping ecosystem disturbance, and assessing wildfire danger.

Index optimization↗

DOE OSTI2024

Detecting Anomalies for Fire Prevention in Distribution Systems: Challenges and Analytical Techniques

Electric utilities in California have historically been linked to up to 10% of wildfires. To mitigate this risk, Southern California Edison has invested significantly in wildfire prevention strategies, including undergrounding cables and enhancing equipment inspections. This article explores a novel approach to fire prevention by detecting anomalies in the distribution system that may indicate potential fire hazards. The focus is on identifying arcing conditions through high-resolution point-on-wave (POW) measurements. Arcing, a precursor to fires, is challenging to detect due to its subtle transients and complex system topology. The article discusses the use of advanced signal processing and machine learning techniques, such as spectral correlation function and discrete wavelet transform, to extract features from POW data and accurately identify arcing events. The study demonstrates a high accuracy rate in detecting arcing, paving the way for improved fire prevention measures in electric distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2020

Leveraging Space and Ground Assets in a Sensorweb for Scientific Monitoring: Early Results and Opportunities for the Future

Increased space and ground sensing is enabling dramaticnew measurements of a wide range of Earth Science andApplied Earth Science phenomena. New space sensors tomonitor volcanism, flooding, wildfires, weather, and manyother phenomena abound.New challenges exist to rapidly assimilate available dataand to optimize measurements (e.g. direct assets) to bestobserve these complex and dynamic spatiotemporalphenomena. Artificial Intelligence offers the potential toassist in data interpretation and resource allocation to bestallocate sensing assets. We describe some efforts to buildand experiment with such “sensorweb” systems as well asoffer some direction for the future sensorweb observationsystems.

Chien, Steve↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA SPoRT-Land Information System and Vegetation Stress Real-Time Products for Drought, Wildfire, and Pluvial Analysis

The NASA SPoRT Center has been producing a near real-time instance of the NASA Land Information System over a CONUS domain (hereafter “SPoRT-LIS”) since ~2015. The SPoRT-LIS runs the legacy Noah LSM in an observations-constrained manner, with outputs of soil moisture and temperature at layered depths along with surface energy fluxes. The unique configuration of SPoRT-LIS enables decision-making on operational timescales since it incorporates near real-time observations such as VIIRS Green Vegetation Fraction and MRMS QPE. An additional in-house Alaska-LIS is produced in real time to help inform end-users on spring snow melt and summer soil moisture trends during the wildfire season. Use of the SPoRT-LIS has gradually expanded in recent years as a component of drought analysis, feedback to the USDM, and is utilized by State Climate Offices. Operational feedback has led to increased applicability for analyses by other end-users in the drought community. This presentation will provide SPoRT-LIS applications for drought, pluvial, and fire weather case-studies. We will also present preliminary results of 2-week SPoRT-LIS forecast percentiles that were recently implemented using GFS model forecast fields. We will additionally discuss the pathway toward extending these forecasts into the future by incorporating ensemble forecasts for probabilistic guidance on soil moisture trends for potential flash drought and subseasonal outlooks.

Soil Moisture↗

DOE OSTI2022

Past fires and post-fire impacts reconstructed from a southwest Australian stalagmite

Speleothem records of past environmental change provide an important opportunity to explore fire frequency and intensity in the past, and the antecedent climatic conditions leading to fire events. Here, fire sensitive geochemical signals in a stalagmite from Yonderup Cave, a shallow cave in Western Australia, are compared to well-documented wildfire events that occurred in recent decades. The results are extended to identify wildfires during the growth interval of the speleothem (1760 CE–2005 CE). Principal component analysis of the stalagmite time-series revealed distinct peaks in a combination of phosphorus and metal (aluminium, zinc, copper and lead) concentrations in response to known fire events, which are interpreted to have come from ash. Varying responses in the geochemical signal in the pre- and post-European colonisation period are likely linked to changes in land management, fire frequency and fire intensities. Of note is what we infer to be a particularly intense fire event concluded to have occurred in 1897 ± 5 CE, which climate sensitive proxies (δ18O and bedrock-derived elements) indicate was preceded by a multi-decadal dry period that began in the late 1860s. The intensity of the deduced fire event is supported by a peak in P that is 6.3 times higher than elsewhere in the speleothem, accompanied by a peak in Zn. It was also inferred that changes to the surface-cave hydrology occurred as a result of this event, indicated by increased input of colloidal organic material onto the stalagmite that was interpreted to be caused by shallow karst bedrock fracturing from the heat-induced deformation that is observed after intense fires. These findings show the potential for speleothems to provide dated records of fire intensity and recurrence intervals. Further development could lead to a better understanding of the climate-fire relationship and the effects of land-management practices on wildfire frequency and intensity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microwave-Mediated ammonia synthesis over Co 2 Mo 3 N catalysts at low pressures

The Haber-Bosch process for ammonia (NH 3 ) synthesis is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and is responsible for > 2 % of the world’s energy consumption each year encouraging the need for alternative renewable-based options. Here, this study investigates an earth-abundant ternary metal nitride (i.e., Co 2 Mo 3 N) catalyst to develop a renewable-based NH 3 synthesis approach, utilizing an energy-efficient microwave-assisted route. Using a combination of spectroscopic and catalytic measurements coupled with surface analysis techniques, Co 2 Mo 3 N was evaluated as a stable and efficient NH 3 synthesis catalyst. Results presented here demonstrate NH 3 synthesis on Co 2 Mo 3 N at ~420 °C and ambient pressure yield ~0.7 mmolNH3.g cat -1 .h -1 and up to ~12 mmol NH3 .g cat -1 .h -1 at 28 bar under microwave irradiation. Co 2 Mo 3 N displayed an activation energy of ~72 kJ.mol -1 and yielded NH 3 following first-order kinetics with respect to both H 2 and N 2 . These studies illustrate the potential of using this catalyst for a sustainable, cost-effective, and environmentally friendly approach to producing NH 3 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ponderosa pine hydraulic stress predicts more extreme wildfire behavior under future conditions in Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

Background Live fuel moisture contributes to wildfire spread and reflects plant stress and physiological traits. The anticipated change in live fuel moisture under future conditions is likely non-linear, owing to physiological plant thresholds in water hydraulics. We constructed a mechanistic model of live fuel moisture’s response to water stress to understand the impact of future climate on live fuel moisture. We first gathered data on plant physiology and live fuel moisture for Pinus ponderosa at Bandelier National Monument, NM, USA, and modeled their relationship. We then parameterized a mechanistic plant hydrodynamics model (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate changes in plant stress and a statistical model to simulate the resulting impact on live fuel moisture. We then simulated FATES-HYDRO under future climate anomalies (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5: 2080–2100) to understand the change in plant stress and estimate its impact on live fuel moisture. Results We found that the number of days below crucial thresholds of live fuel moisture (100% and 79%) increased from contemporary levels (< 100%: 72 days, < 79%: 1.4 days) under SSP2-4.5 (< 100%: 185 days, < 79%: 10.2 day) and increased exponentially under SSP5-8.5 (< 100%: 215 days, < 79%: 65 days). We found that gross primary productivity decreased under both future climate scenarios (contemporary: 336 g C m −2 , SSP2-4.5: 203 g C m −2 , SSP5-8.5: 243 g C m −2 ); however, spring productivity increased under SSP5-8.5, potentially altering fuel loading. We additionally see a potentially lethal loss of conductivity in hydraulic P. ponderosa under SSP5-8.5. Conclusions The overall increase in plant water stress (as represented by loss of hydraulic conductivity and leaf water potential) and lower live fuel moisture appear to be driven by reduced precipitation during late summer monsoons typical of the region, extending the fire season later in the year. We predict increasing variability in the P. ponderosa wildfire regime under both climate projections driven by changing productivity, rising mortality, and an overall decrease in live fuel moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The drivers and predictability of wildfire re-burns in the western United States (US)

Evidence is mounting that the effectiveness of using prescribed burns as a management tactic may be diminishing due to the higher incidence of wildfire re-burns. The development of predictive models of re-burns is thus essential to better understand their primary drivers so that forest management practices can be updated to account for these events. First, we assess the potential for human activity as a driver of re-burns by evaluating re-burn trends both within and outside of the wildland–urban interface (WUI) of the western US. Next, we investigate the predictability of re-burns through the application of both random forest and the explanatory machine learning non-negative matrix factorization using k-means clustering (NMFk) algorithms to predict re-burn occurrence over California based on a number of climate factors. Our findings indicate that while most states showed increasing trends within the WUI when trends were conducted over longer moving windows (e.g. 20 years), California was the only state where the rate of increase was consistently higher in the WUI, indicating a stronger potential for human activity as a driver in that location. Furthermore, we find model performance was found to be robust over most of California (Testing F1 scores = 0.688), although results were highly variable based on EPA level III Ecoregion (F1 scores = 0.0–0.778). Insights provided from this study will lead to a better understanding of climate and human activity drivers of re-burns and how these vary at broad spatial scales so that improvements in forest management practices can be tuned according to the level of change that is expected for a given region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wildfire Emergency Response Hazard Extraction and Analysis of Trends (HEAT) through Natural Language Processing and Time Series

A methodology for Hazard Extraction and Analysis of Trends (HEAT) is proposed and conducted on a data set of wildfire incident response forms, known as ICS-209-PLUS.The HEAT processes: (1) extract a set of hazards from a data set, (2) calculate hazard-relevant metrics in a primary analysis, (3) analyze trends over time in metrics using timeseries, and (4) examine potential explanations for metric trends using a secondary analysis. Hazards are extracted from narrative data in the ICS-209-PLUS based on a framework previously developed by the authors, using natural language processing. Metrics examined for each hazard include operational time to occurrence, rate of occurrence, frequency, and severity. Primary results include a taxonomy of hazards present in the data set with relevant quantitative metrics. The most frequent hazards identified are environmental and include hazardous terrain. Most hazards occur on average between 35-55% containment. Incidents with hazards tend to have a higher average severity score when compared to the average score for all incidents. Time series of the metrics and relevant predictors, including fire characteristics, fire intensity, and operations, are created to facilitate further analysis. Secondary results used to determine which factors best predict hazard frequency include a correlation matrix and regression analysis. These findings are relevant to safety for current, as well as emerging wildfire operations, and are an exploratory first step in developing historical data-driven risk assessment models.

Sequoia R. Andrade↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Firesense: Supporting Operational Partners Through Co-Development

Fire is a natural disturbance and fundamental to many ecosystems, but, across the United States and many areas globally, fires have become more common, larger and more likely to occur at the same time. This has the potential to challenge resource allocation and response and requires coordinated integration of technology and tools at the spatial and temporal scales required by practitioners who make wildland fire management decisions. In the US wildfire is currently managed across state, federal, and tribal agencies who leverage various datasets to guide management decisions. FireSense, a NASA Science Mission Directorate project, aims to develop and deliver trailblazing technology and tools for use before, during, and after wildland fires by working together with land managers and practitioners. FireSense is focused on turning information into solutions by expanding partnerships and collaborations with operational agencies to inform and deliver data and technology to support decisions for wildland fire management. Through implementation across the US and with campaign activities in a variety of landscapes, coordinated research and development work will build upon adaptive and use-inspired approaches that can be put into operation. By leveraging and complementing partner activities through coordinated investment, we support a more comprehensive and cohesive response that can advance fire science to better understand fire behavior and effects through integrated measurement, monitoring and modeling. We present updates from in-progress technology development and field campaigns within the US which include sampling and application across scales with information from multiple sensors collocated with field measurements and highlighting the importance of cross-scale observations during the fire lifecycle. Coordinated investment in new science and technology for the complete fire lifecycle supports a comprehensive and cohesive fire response that help to overcome barriers and anticipate and manage the new reality of extreme fires in a warming world.

Jacquelyn Shuman↗

DOE OSTI2021

NACHOS, a CubeSat-based high-resolution UV-Visible hyperspectral imager for remote sensing of trace gases: system overview and science objectives

Here, the Nano-satellite Atmospheric Chemistry Hyperspectral Observation System (NACHOS) is a high-throughput (f/2.9), high spectral resolution (~1.3 nm optical resolution, 0.6 nm sampling) Offner-design hyperspectral imager operating in the 300-500 nm spectral region. The 1.5U instrument payload (1U optical system, 0.5U electronics module) is hosted by a 1.5U LANL-designed CubeSat bus to comprise a 3U complete satellite. Spectroscopically similar to NASA’s Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), which provides wide-field global mapping of ozone and other gases at coarse spatial resolution, NACHOS fills the complementary niche of targeted measurements at much higher spatial resolution. With 350 across-track spatial pixels and a 15-degree across-track field of view, NACHOS will provide spectral imaging at roughly 0.4 km per pixel from 500 km altitude. NACHOS incorporates highly streamlined gas-retrieval algorithms for rapid onboard processing, alleviating the need to routinely downlink massive hyperspectral data cubes. We will discuss the instrument design, challenges in achieving mechanical robustness to launch vibration in such a compact instrument, the onboard calibration system, and gas-retrieval data downlink strategy. We will also discuss potential science missions, including monitoring of NO 2 as an easily detected proxy for anthropogenic fossil-fuel greenhouse gases, monitoring lowlevel SO 2 degassing at pre-eruptive volcanoes, H 2 CO from wildfires, and characterization of aerosols. The long-term vision is for a many-satellite constellation that could provide both high spatial resolution and frequent revisits for selected targets of interest. As an initial technology demonstration of this vision, the NACHOS project is currently slated to launch two CubeSats in early 2022.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Eucalyptus Wood Smoke Extract Elicits a Dose-Dependent Effect in Brain Endothelial Cells

The frequency, duration, and size of wildfires have been increasing, and the inhalation of wildfire smoke particles poses a significant risk to human health. Epidemiological studies have shown that wildfire smoke exposure is positively associated with cognitive and neurological dysfunctions. However, there is a significant gap in knowledge on how wildfire smoke exposure can affect the blood–brain barrier and cause molecular and cellular changes in the brain. Our study aims to determine the acute effect of smoldering eucalyptus wood smoke extract (WSE) on brain endothelial cells for potential neurotoxicity in vitro. Primary human brain microvascular endothelial cells (HBMEC) and immortalized human brain endothelial cell line (hCMEC/D3) were treated with different doses of WSE for 24 h. WSE treatment resulted in a dose-dependent increase in IL-8 in both HBMEC and hCMEC/D3. RNA-seq analyses showed a dose-dependent upregulation of genes involved in aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) and nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 (NRF2) pathways and a decrease in tight junction markers in both HBMEC and hCMEC/D3. When comparing untreated controls, RNA-seq analyses showed that HBMEC have a higher expression of tight junction markers compared to hCMEC/D3. In summary, our study found that 24 h WSE treatment increases IL-8 production dose-dependently and decreases tight junction markers in both HBMEC and hCMEC/D3 that may be mediated through the AhR and NRF2 pathways, and HBMEC could be a better in vitro model for studying the effect of wood smoke extract or particles on brain endothelial cells.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

Fuel availability not fire weather controls boreal wildfire severity and carbon emissions

Carbon (C) emissions from wildfires are a key terrestrial–atmosphere interaction that influences global atmospheric composi-tion and climate. Positive feedbacks between climate warming and boreal wildfires are predicted based on top-down controls of fire weather and climate, but C emissions from boreal fires may also depend on bottom-up controls of fuel availability related to edaphic controls and overstory tree composition. Here we synthesized data from 417 field sites spanning six ecoregions in the northwestern North American boreal forest and assessed the network of interactions among potential bottom-up and top-down drivers of C emissions. Our results indicate that C emissions are more strongly driven by fuel availability than by fire weather, highlighting the importance of fine-scale drainage conditions, overstory tree species composition and fuel accumulation rates for predicting total C emissions. By implication, climate change-induced modification of fuels needs to be considered for accu-rately predicting future C emissions from boreal wildfires.

X J Walker↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microwave-assisted ammonia decomposition over metal nitride catalysts at low temperatures

The negative environmental impact of fossil fuel-based energy systems has unveiled the need to develop a CO x -free sustainable hydrogen (H 2 ) economy. Employing a microwave-assisted route, a ternary metal nitride catalyst (i.e., Co 2 Mo 3 N), and a low-temperature-pressure NH 3 decomposition process, this study investigated the possibility of developing a distributed H 2 production process. Here, this study not only explored lower cost-based catalyst systems but also the use of a microwave reactor to increase the energy efficiency of the process. Results from catalytic NH 3 decomposition experiments, performed in microwave reactors on Co 2 Mo 3 N catalyst, demonstrated the peak energy efficiency (of ~0.006 kgH 2 /kWh) at 400 °C in ambient pressure (with an NH 3 conversion >90%) which was around ninety times (~90 x) more efficient than a conventional system. Activation energy calculation also displayed a 20% less energy requirement for the microwave-based process (~31 kJ mol -1 ) than the conventional system (~37 kJ mol -1 ), indicating the advantage of the microwave-based process. Further microwave-assisted catalytic measurements and characterization of the Co 2 Mo 3 N catalyst, using x-ray diffraction (XRD) technique and scanning electron microscopic (SEM) images, revealed the excellent stability of this material at its peak performance (at 400 °C) and illustrated the potential of using this catalyst for a sustainable, economic, and energy-efficient approach for producing CO x -free H 2 .

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Microwave-enhanced catalytic ammonia synthesis under moderate pressure and temperature

In this study, an alternative approach based on microwave-enhanced ammonia synthesis for Haber-Bosch process was carried out under moderate pressure of 0.1–0.65 MPa and temperature range of 280–400 °C over a stable CsRu/CeO 2 catalyst. The ammonia production rate is significantly improved under microwave conditions. At 0.65 MPa and 320 °C, maximum ammonia production rate was achieved at H 2 /N 2 ratio of 1/1. Stable performance was obtained in a 6-cycles of startup-shutdown operation for cumulative on-line time of 80 h. The work demonstrates the potential of microwave catalytic technology for the distributed ammonia synthesis using renewable power having intermittent nature of energy supply.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2004

Characterization of Transport Errors in Chemical Forecasts from a Global Tropospheric Chemical Transport Model

We propose a new methodology to characterize errors in the representation of transport processes in chemical transport models. We constrain the evaluation of a global three-dimensional chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM) with an extended dataset of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations obtained during the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft campaign. The TRACEP mission took place over the western Pacific, a region frequently impacted by continental outflow associated with different synoptic-scale weather systems (such as cold fronts) and deep convection, and thus provides a valuable dataset. for our analysis. Model simulations using both forecast and assimilated meteorology are examined. Background CO concentrations are computed as a function of latitude and altitude and subsequently subtracted from both the observed and the model datasets to focus on the ability of the model to simulate variability on a synoptic scale. Different sampling strategies (i.e., spatial displacement and smoothing) are applied along the flight tracks to search for systematic model biases. Statistical quantities such as correlation coefficient and centered root-mean-square difference are computed between the simulated and the observed fields and are further inter-compared using Taylor diagrams. We find no systematic bias in the model for the TRACE-P region when we consider the entire dataset (i.e., from the surface to 12 km ). This result indicates that the transport error in our model is globally unbiased, which has important implications for using the model to conduct inverse modeling studies. Using the First-Look assimilated meteorology only provides little improvement of the correlation, in comparison with the forecast meteorology. These general statements can be refined when the entire dataset is divided into different vertical domains, i.e., the lower troposphere (less than 2 km), the middle troposphere (2-6 km), and the upper troposphere (greater than 6 km). The best agreement between the observations and the model is found in the lower and middle troposphere. Downward displacements in the lower troposphere provide a better fit with the observed value, which could indicate a problem in the representation of boundary layer height in the model. Significant improvement is also found for downward and southward displacements in the upper troposphere. There are several potential sources of errors in our simulation of the continental outflow in the upper troposphere which could lead to such biases, including the location and/or the strength of deep convective cells as well as that of wildfires in Southeast Asia.

Bey, I.↗