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Mineralogical, magnetic and geochemical data constrain the pathways and extent of weathering of mineralized sedimentary rocks

The oxidative weathering of sulfidic rock can profoundly impact watersheds through the resulting export of acidity and metals. Weathering leaves a record of mineral transformation, particularly involving minor redox-sensitive phases, that can inform the development of conceptual and quantitative models. In sulfidic sedimentary rocks, however, variations in depositional history, diagenesis and mineralization can change or overprint the distributions of these trace minerals, complicating the interpretation of weathering signatures. Here we show that a combination of bulk mineralogical and geochemical techniques, micrometer-resolution X-ray fluorescence microprobe analysis and rock magnetic measurements, applied to drill core samples and single weathered fractures, can provide data that enable the development of a geochemically consistent weathering model. This work focused on one watershed in the Upper Colorado River Basin sitting within the Mesaverde Formation, a sedimentary sandstone bedrock with disseminated sulfide minerals, including pyrite and sphalerite, that were introduced during diagenesis and subsequent magmatic-hydrothermal mineralization. Combined analytical methods revealed the pathways of iron (Fe), carbonate and silicate mineral weathering and showed how pH controls element retention or release from the actively weathering fractured sandstone. Drill core logging, whole rock X-ray diffraction, and geochemical measurements document the progression from unweathered rock at depth to weathered rock at the surface. X-ray microprobe analyses of a 1-cm size weathering profile along a fracture surface are consistent with the mobilization of Fe(II) and Fe(III) into acidic pore water from the dissolution of primary pyrite, Fe-sphalerite, chlorite, and minor siderite and pyrrhotite. These reactions are followed by the precipitation of secondary minerals such as of goethite and jarosite, a Fe-(oxyhydr)oxide and hydrous Fe(III) sulfate, respectively. Microscale analyses also helped explain the weathering reactions responsible for the mineralogical transformations observed in the top and most weathered section of the drill core. For example, dissolution of feldspar and chlorite neutralizes the acidity generated by Fe and sulfide mineral oxidation, oversaturating the solution in both Fe-oxides. The combination of X-ray spectromicroscopy and magnetic measurements show that the Fe(III) product is goethite, mainly present either as a coating on fracture surfaces in the actively weathering region of the core or more homogeneously contained within the unconsolidated regolith at the top of the core. Low-temperature magnetic data reveal the presence of ferromagnetic Fe-sulfide pyrrhotite that, although it occurs at trace concentrations, could provide a qualitative proxy for unweathered sulfide minerals because the loss of pyrrhotite is associated with the onset of oxidative weathering. Pyrrhotite loss and goethite formation are detectable through room-temperature magnetic coercivity changes, suggesting that rock magnetic measurements can determine weathering intensity in rock samples at many scales. In conclusion, this work contributes evidence that the weathering of sulfidic sedimentary rocks follows a geochemical pattern in which the abundance of sulfide minerals controls the generation of acidity and dissolved elements, and the pH-dependent mobility of these elements controls their export to the ground- and surface-water.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Model Data Archive Associated with Manuscript "Fire-altered Carbon Pools Create Disturbance Memory in Stream Dissolved Organic Carbon"

This data package supports the publication “Fire-altered Carbon Pools Create Disturbance Memory in Stream Dissolved Organic Carbon” by Li et al. (2026). The package contains processed model inputs, configuration files, restart files, simulation outputs, scripts, and visualization products used to evaluate post-fire dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics in the Naches River Watershed, Washington, USA, following the 2021 Schneider Springs Fire. The modeling workflow couples ELM-BGC, the biogeochemistry-enabled Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model; ATS, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator for integrated surface-subsurface hydrology; and PFLOTRAN, a reactive transport model for multicomponent aqueous geochemistry. Together, these models simulate how wildfire-induced changes in vegetation, litter, coarse woody debris, and soil organic matter influence DOC production, transport, and reaction from burned hillslopes to stream networks. The archive includes preprocessed meteorological, geospatial, hydrologic, and biogeochemical forcing data; ELM-BGC-derived DOC source terms; ATS mesh files; PFLOTRAN reactive-transport inputs; model configuration files; spin-up and transient restart files; watershed-scale diagnostic outputs; stream concentration time series; and figures or visualization files used to inspect and reproduce key results. File types include Hierarchical Data Format 5 (HDF5) files for gridded forcing and model-coupling data, model input and configuration files for ELM-BGC, ATS, and PFLOTRAN, restart and simulation-output files generated by the modeling workflow, tabular or time-series diagnostic outputs, scripts for post-processing and figure generation, and image or visualization products associated with the manuscript. Use of the package depends on the intended task. Re-running the simulations requires the relevant modeling software, including ELM-BGC, ATS, and PFLOTRAN as ATS's geochemical engine. Inspecting outputs and reproducing figures requires Python with scientific plotting libraries such as Matplotlib, and three-dimensional model outputs may be viewed with ParaView. Geographic information system files or maps may be inspected with ArcGIS Pro or comparable GIS software. The data package is intended to enable traceability, reuse, and partial reproduction of the coupled land-to-watershed hydro-biogeochemical modeling workflow used to test how wildfire disturbance affects terrestrial carbon pools and downstream DOC dynamics.

ATS↗

rabpro: global watershed boundaries, river elevation profiles, and catchment statistics

River and Basin Profiler (rabpro) is a Python package to delineate watersheds, extract river flowlines and elevation profiles, and compute watershed statistics for any location on the Earth’s surface. As fundamental hydrologically-relevant units of surface area, watersheds are areas of land that drain via aboveground pathways to the same location, or outlet. Delineations of watershed boundaries are typically performed on digital elevation models (DEMs) that represent surface elevations as gridded rasters. Depending on the resolution of the DEM and the size of the watershed, delineation may be very computationally expensive. With this in mind, we designed rabpro to provide user-friendly workflows to manage the complexity and computational expense of watershed calculations given an arbitrary coordinate pair. In addition to basic watershed delineation, rabpro will extract the elevation profile for a watershed’s mainchannel flowline. This enables the computation of river slope, which is a critical parameter in many hydrologic and geomorphologic models. Finally, rabpro provides a user-friendly wrapper around Google Earth Engine’s (GEE) Python API to enable cloud-computing of zonal watershed statistics and/or time-varying forcing data from hundreds of available datasets. Altogether, rabpro provides the ability to automate or semi-automate complex watershed analysis workflows across broad spatial extents.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics Within Water‐Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models

Determining the age distribution of water exiting a catchment is important for understanding groundwater storage and mixing. New water-tagging capabilities within models track precipitation events as they move through simulated storages, yet forward modeling of individual events may not systematically capture the full transit time distribution (TTD). Here, we present a “sequential precipitation input tagging” (SPIT) framework to tag all input precipitation at regular intervals during extended model simulations. Monthly tags over 7 years were applied at six National Ecological Observatory Network sites to calculate TTDs and derive mean virtual tracer age, $\overline{T_{V}}$, fractions of young water, F yw , and hydrologic tracer concentrations (water isotopes δ 18 O and δ 2 H) within a tagging enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecast hydrologic model (WRF-Hydro). Throughout seven simulation years, the fraction of simulated discharge derived from tagged events, F tag , increased each year, with the final year's F tag ranging from 66% to 100% and highlights the need to apply SPIT over many years to understand TTDs. When the F tag was >75%, simulated $\overline{T_{V}}$ ranged 179–923 days and F yw 0.6%–23.9%, with daily values exhibiting a power-law relationship with precipitation, discharge, and groundwater. Through implementation of SPIT, we find this hydrologic model configuration performs poorly in estimation of $\overline{T_{V}}$ and F yw (root mean squared error of 469 days and 14.4% respectively), suggesting it misrepresents subsurface mixing. Thus, the SPIT framework provides a reproducible approach to calculate watershed transit times within tagging enabled models and thereby assess and improve representation of hydrologic processes.

fraction of young water↗

Improving tide-estuary representation in MPAS-Ocean (Final Report)

The overarching goal of this research is to produce a skill-assessed tide-estuary representation, including BGC (biogeochemistry) components of the ecosystem, into the MPAS-O global climate modeling system. Specifically, in the original proposal we proposed one-way nesting, into global MPAS-O, of a high-resolution model for TES (tidal and estuary systems) including the coupling of the BGC components. We have completed the proposed tasks during the past 4 years. Specifically, after extensive consultation with the MPAS-O group during the first year, we have decided to go beyond the original proposal and to two-way nest SCHISM into MPAS-O. As a result, SCHISM-CoSiNE (with CoSiNE being the BGC model) is now fully integrated into MPAS-O as a subroutine (more precisely, an analysis member) and can be invoked as MPAS-O is running with two-way exchange of information between the TES and global models (with proper spatial interpolation done on the fly). As originally proposed, we have also developed the new finite-volume (FV) model MPAS-OI (aka ELCIRC-sub) for TES. We have conducted several tests using the coupled MPAS-SCHISM- CoSiNE model and also MPAS-OI for Columbia River, San Francisco Bay and Chesapeake Bay. Four journal publications have been produced so far as the result of the project and 1 is under review (cf. Publication section). With these achievements, we will be ready to conduct fully coupled simulations of TES and global ocean anywhere, as soon as some missing capabilities in MPAS-O (e.g. tides, improved ability to handle the boundary conditions, and streamlining of the global BGC model) are worked out. The significance of the outcome of this project cannot be overstated. It marks the first time, as far as we know, that a global climate model is tightly coupled to a bona fide nearshore and terrestrial model (SCHISM system); in fact SCHISM is the first bona fide compound flooding model that seamlessly covers the coastal ocean, estuaries, rivers and watersheds (Ye et al. 2020; Zhang et al. 2020). The coupled model will reduce the errors and uncertainties of the MPAS-O global climate model system. It also complements and extends on-going E3SM project, as the latter seeks in the long-term to include components required to simulate impacts of sea-level change and storm surge on coastal regions, including wave models and focusing resolution in coastal and storm-track regions, as an important component of the Cryosphere-ocean system. Note that a spectral wave model (the unstructured-grid version of Wave Watch III, aka Wind Wave Model) is already incorporated inside the SCHISM system and is therefore directly accessible in the coupled system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hydrological controls of a riparian wetland based on stable isotope data and model simulations

Isotopic evidence of groundwater and stream water is frequently used to investigate water exchanges with groundwater. Monthly sampling of rain, stream water, and groundwater was conducted at Tims Branch watershed in South Carolina for the oxygen and hydrogen stable isotope (δ 2 H and δ 18 O) measurement, as well as pH and oxidation–reduction potential (ORP). Together with a mass balance perspective, it was determined that it takes a few weeks to one month for groundwater in the hyporheic zone to fully exchange with stream water. From hydrodynamic modelling, we show that substantial (up to 70 %) groundwater exchange occurs at gaining and losing sites. Groundwater exfiltration, i.e. inflow into stream water, contributes up to 4 % to stream water, with the remainder from upstream exfiltration. A 2–4 % per day renewal rate of adjacent groundwater would indirectly indicate a groundwater residence time in the order of half a month to a full month (assuming either a well-mixed case or large dispersion rate in pulse flow case), in agreement with a greatly reduced variability of δ 2 H and δ 18 O of groundwater compared to stream water and rain. This reduced variability of stable isotope signal from groundwater confirms our hypothesis that riparian groundwater mixing at Tims Branch is more of a mixed type rather than a pulse flow type. As a result, a monthly time scale is sufficient for groundwater to become anoxic at exit points into stream water resulting in the episodic production of natural organic matter- and iron-rich flocs upon oxidation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of climate change on future hurricane induced rainfall and flooding in a coastal watershed: A case study on Hurricane Harvey

The warming climate is likely to increase hurricane-associated extreme rainfall and lead to sea-level rise (SLR). Thus, how the floods induced by intense hurricanes respond to these potential changes is of great concern. This study investigates the future warmer climate impacts on hurricane-induced extreme rainfall, and—more importantly—the subsequent compound flooding at the watershed scale (from an event-based analysis perspective). To this goal, a modeling framework is designed based on the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the Two-Dimensional fvand the Regional Community Earth System Model (R-CESM). The framework was applied to Hurricane Harvey (2017) at the Clear Creek watershed (a coastal watershed in the southern Houston) as a case study. The results show that the projected maximum rainfall totals over the watershed would be exacerbated by 17.7 % and 49.7 % in the 2050s and 2090s (respectively) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5). This means a 16.1 % increase in Harvey rainfall over the watershed per degree Celsius increase in Mean Surface Temperature over the Gulf of Mexico region (18°~31° N, 77°~98° W). Meanwhile, the increases in maximum inundation extent would be 11.0 % (2050s) and 19.5 % (2090s). Furthermore, considerable increases in maximum inundation depth and duration in regions along the middle and downstream of Clear Creek (and also those around Clear Lake) are expected. The projected SLR will have little effect on the maximum inundation depth and extent if storm surge changes are not taken into account; meanwhile, it will influence the inundation duration at downstream locations. In conclusion, this modeling framework can be also applied at other coastal watersheds to evaluate the projected climate change impacts on the compound flooding induced by extreme climate events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ParFlow-CLM model simulation files for Maina et al., Journal of Hydrology, 2022

This dataset contains the files to run a ParFlow-CLM integrated hydrologic model simulation for Maina et al., HESS, 2022. It also contains the associated daily pressure output of those simulations. Simulations are for a hillslope-similarity approach based on seasonal groundwater changes in the East River, Colorado. Comparisons are made to different clustering, or functional zonation approaches. We assess the ability of these clustering approaches to identify and categorize hillslopes with similar static characteristics, hydroclimate, land surface processes, and subsurface dynamics in a mountainous watershed. ParFlow binary files (.pfb) are model specific, and can be modified/viewed with conversion to .sa, .silo, or .vtk file formats. ParFlow input scripts are in the .tcl file format. Associated post-processing scripts are included as .f90 files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Location Identifiers, Metadata, and Map for Field Measurements at the East-Taylor Watershed Community Observatory, Colorado, USA (Version 3.3)

This dataset contains identifiers, metadata, and a map of the locations where field measurements have been conducted at the East-Taylor Watershed Community Observatory located in the Upper Colorado River Basin, United States. This is version 3.3 of the dataset and replaces the prior version 3.2 (see below for details on changes between the versions). Dataset description: The East River-Taylor Watershed is the primary field site of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (WFSFA) and the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory. Researchers from several institutions generate highly diverse hydrological, biogeochemical, climate, vegetation, geological, remote sensing, and model data at the East-Taylor Watershed in collaboration with the WFSFA. Thus, the purpose of this dataset is to maintain an inventory of the field locations and instrumentation to provide information on the field activities in the East-Taylor Watershed and coordinate data collected across different locations, researchers, and institutions. The dataset contains (1) a README file with information on the various files, (2) three csv files describing the metadata collected for each surface point location, plot and region registered with the WFSFA, (3) csv files with metadata and contact information for each surface point location registered with the WFSFA, (4) a csv file with with metadata and contact information for plots, (5) a csv file with metadata for geographic regions and sub-regions within the watershed, (6) a compiled xlsx file with all the data and metadata which can be opened in Microsoft Excel, (7) a kml map of the locations plotted in the watershed which can be opened in Google Earth, (8) a jpg image of the kml map which can be viewed in any photo viewer, and (9) a zipped file with the registration templates used by the SFA team to collect location metadata. The zipped template file contains two csv files with the blank templates (point and plot), two csv files with instructions for filling out the location templates, and one compiled xlsx file with the instructions and blank templates together. Additionally, the templates in the xlsx include drop down validation for any controlled metadata fields. Persistent location identifiers (Location_ID) are determined by the WFSFA data management team and are used to track data and samples across locations. Dataset uses: This location metadata is used to update the Watershed SFA’s publicly accessible Field Information Portal (an interactive field sampling metadata exploration tool; https://wfsfa-data.lbl.gov/watershed/), the kml map file included in this dataset, and other data management tools internal to the Watershed SFA team. Version Information: The latest version of this dataset publication is version 3.3. This version contains 167 new point locations, 1 new plot, and 2 new geographic regions. Overall, there are a total of 1439 point locations, 75 plots, and 54 geographic regions. Additionally, the kml map of locations and image now includes two boundaries (Upper Ohio Creek (UO) and Carbon Creek (CA)) outside of the East River watershed (USGS HUC-10) and accompanying stream network that represents areas of focus. Refer to methods for further details on the version history. This dataset will be updated on a periodic basis with new measurement location information. Researchers interested in having their East-Taylor Watershed measurement locations added to this list should reach out to the WFSFA data management team at wfsfa-data@googlegroups.com. Acknowledgments: Please cite this dataset if using any of the location metadata in other publications or derived products. If using the location metadata for the 2018 NEON hyperspectral campaign, additionally cite Chadwick et al. (2020). doi:10.15485/1618130. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. Part of this work was performed at SLAC Accelerator Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-76SF00515.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗

SWAT model application for evaluating agricultural conservation practice effectiveness in reducing phosphorous loss from the Western Lake Erie Basin

Lake Erie is threatened by eutrophication and harmful algal blooms due to excess nutrient loading from agricultural sources. Agricultural conservation practices (ACPs) have been developed and implemented to reduce nutrient losses but estimating ACP effectiveness is challenging. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used to investigate ACP effectiveness for water quality improvement. Many SWAT applications have been developed by different investigators to evaluate ACP effectiveness for reducing nutrient, particularly phosphorus (P), loading in the agriculturally-dominated Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB). Our objective is to establish what has been achieved by past modeling research and make suggestions for future applications and improvements. We synthesized the findings of 28 SWAT modeling studies within the WLEB. Models generally performed satisfactorily against accepted criteria for streamflow and sediment, but performance for P loads, like soluble reactive P, was mostly “unsatisfactory”. The “unsatisfactory” performance maybe due to imperfections and idealizations in model formulations and/or parameterization. Thus, simulations of P transport and transformation processes need improvement. In addition, model parameter selection is the key part of model set-up. Most SWAT modeling studies used default values during initial set-up, then performed calibration and validation. It was found that the calibrated P related parameter values varied widely across different studies, even within the same watershed with some values unrealistic for the study areas. The phenomena of different combinations of model parameters producing similar outputs indicates equifinality. Equifinality in the baseline model may impact results when ACPs are incorporated. Furthermore, the unrealistic values used in ACP assessment undermine the credibility of ACP effectiveness. Future model applications should try to re-examine the calibrated P parameters and make sure they are realistic for the study area as well as reduce equifinality by constraining the model with characterization of watershed conditions, better understanding of hydrologic processes, and parameter values based on real-world observations. As a result, future model applications should focus on improving P transport and transformation processes, using measured watershed characteristics for parameterization, and improving reflections of climate change, which could result in more accurate assessments of ACP effectiveness to meet targeted goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modelling the Sensitivity of Yukon River Biogeochemical Dynamics to Environmental and Chemical Drivers: Implications for Dissolved Organic Carbon

Riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a critical biogeochemical component that transmits information from Arctic soils to the Arctic Ocean, significantly influencing carbon dynamics in this unique ecosystem. As DOC travels downstream, it undergoes transformations that alter its composition and fate. The Yukon River serves as an effective testbed for modelling these dynamics, offering sufficient scale to capture key biogeochemical processes while having a simpler hydrology than other major Arctic rivers, as well as long-term DOC observational data for model validation. To investigate DOC transformations during transit in the Yukon River, we adapted our Arctic Riverine Organic Macromolecular Model by applying regional-specific parameterisations. Our model simulates the transport and transformation of 15 organic macromolecules, including CDOM (coloured dissolved organic matter), proteins, polysaccharides, lipids, lignin phenols, and humic substances. Initial DOC concentrations were derived from observed soil organic carbon stocks in the surrounding watershed, while chemical transformations and hydrological dynamics were modelled along the river's course. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were conducted using a Monte Carlo approach under two experimental setups. Results revealed that variability in DOC and CDOM concentrations at the river mouth were predominantly driven by initial DOC concentration (~70% of variability explained) and dilution at confluence points (~10%). The refractory fraction of DOC explained 21%–88% of the variability in 14 macromolecular concentrations and ranked in the top five sensitive parameters for all outputs when a uniform parameter distribution was assumed. However, when a more likely variability was applied to this parameter, its influence on DOC and CDOM decreased. Given that refractory DOC accounts for ~80% of total DOC in Arctic Rivers, this suggests that most DOC resists degradation and retains its chemical composition during transport to the coastal environment. River velocity, which determines residence time, explained 8%–47% of the variability in protein, polysaccharide, lipid, pigments, and lignin phenols at the river mouth. In contrast, chemical turnover times contributed only 1%–5% to output variability. Our findings underscore the need for improved land-specific headwater observations, including seasonal soil moisture and lateral transport dynamics that control the initial tributary-specific DOC inputs. With accelerated permafrost thaw and increasing river discharge, extending our model to other Arctic River systems and seasons will enhance understanding of Arctic riverine carbon fluxes and their contributions to the Arctic Ocean.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Combined Effects of Stream Hydrology and Land Use on Basin‐Scale Hyporheic Zone Denitrification in the Columbia River Basin

Abstract Denitrification in the hyporheic zone (HZ) of river corridors is crucial to removing excess nitrogen in rivers from anthropogenic activities. However, previous modeling studies of the effectiveness of river corridors in removing excess nitrogen via denitrification were often limited to the reach‐scale and low‐order stream watersheds. We developed a basin‐scale river corridor model for the Columbia River Basin with random forest models to identify the dominant factors associated with the spatial variation of HZ denitrification. Our modeling results suggest that the combined effects of hydrologic variability in reaches and substrate availability influenced by land use are associated with the spatial variability of modeled HZ denitrification at the basin scale. Hyporheic exchange flux can explain most of spatial variation of denitrification amounts in reaches of different sizes, while among the reaches affected by different land uses, the combination of hyporheic exchange flux and stream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration can explain the denitrification differences. Also, we can generalize that the most influential watershed and channel variables controlling denitrification variation are channel morphology parameters (median grain size (D50), stream slope), climate (annual precipitation and evapotranspiration), and stream DOC‐related parameters (percent of shrub area). The modeling framework in our study can serve as a valuable tool to identify the limiting factors in removing excess nitrogen pollution in large river basins where direct measurement is often infeasible.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Insights on Simulating Summer Warming of the Great Lakes: Understanding the Behavior of a Newly Developed Coupled Lake-Atmosphere Modeling System

The Laurentian Great Lakes are the world's largest freshwater system and regulate the climate of the Great Lakes region, which has been increasingly experiencing climatic, hydrological, and ecological changes. An accurate mechanistic representation of the Great Lakes thermal structure in Regional Climate Models (RCMs) is paramount to studying the climate of this region. Currently, RCMs have primarily represented the Great Lakes through coupled one-dimensional (1D) column lake models; this approach works well for small inland lakes but is unable to resolve the realistic hydrodynamics of the Great Lakes and leads to inaccurate representations of lake surface temperature (LST) that influence regional climate and weather patterns. This work overcomes this limitation by developing a fully two-way coupled modeling system using the Weather Research and Forecasting model and a three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic model. The coupled model system resolves the interactive physical processes between the atmosphere, lake, and surrounding watersheds; and validated against a range of observational data. The model is then used to investigate the potential impacts of lake-atmosphere coupling on the simulated summer LST of Lake Superior. By evaluating the difference between our two-way coupled modeling system and our observation-driven modeling system, we find that coupled-lake atmosphere dynamics can lead to a higher LST during June-September through higher net surface heat flux entering the lake in June and July and a lower net surface heat flux entering the lake in August and September. The unstratified water in June distributes the entering surface heat flux throughout the water column leading to a minor LST increase, while the stratified waters of July create a conducive thermal structure for the water surface to warm rapidly under the higher incoming surface heat flux. This research provides insight into the coupled modeling system behavior, which is critical for enhancing our predictive understanding of the Great Lakes climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Event-scale predictions of water and nitrogen exports in coastal watersheds

Focal Area(s): The purpose of this white paper is to call for the improvement of the predictability and explainability of the magnitude and timing of water and nutrient exports in coastal watersheds. In this regard, hybrid machine learning approaches and process-based numerical models provide new opportunities to maximize predictability, emulate process-based model components, and explicitly address model uncertainty associated with event-scale predictions in coastal watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data and scripts associated with “Allometric scaling of hyporheic respiration across basins in the Pacific Northwest USA"

This data package is associated with the publication “Allometric scaling of hyporheic respiration across basins in the Pacific Northwest USA” submitted to JGR-Biogeosciences (Regier et al. 2025).This study used reach-scale modeled estimates of hyporheic aerobic respiration made by the River Corridor Model (Fang et al. 2020) and watershed characteristics across the Willamette and Yakima River basins to explore potential allometric scaling (i.e., power-law relationships between size and function) of cumulative hyporheic respiration across catchment-to-basin scales. Scaling was explored quantitatively via the R2, slope, and y-intercept of relationships between cumulative hyporheic respiration and watershed area, divided into hyporheic exchange flux (HEF) quantiles. We also explored relationships between allometric scaling and other watershed characteristics through linear regression, spatial patterns, and mutual information analyses. Our results also suggest variability of hyporheic respiration allometry for middle exchange flux quantiles, and in relation to land-cover. Our findings provide initial evidence that allometric scaling may be useful for predicting hyporheic biogeochemical dynamics across watersheds from reach to basin scales. This data package is associated with the GitHub repository found at https://github.com/peterregier/rc_wrb_yrb_scaling. The data package is organized into several key directories. The “data” folder contains multiple CSV files, including landscape heterogeneity, scaling analysis, and watershed boundary data. The “figures” folder has all figure files in both PDF and PNG formats. Core analysis scripts and figure generation scripts are in the “scripts” directory, systematically numbered for sequential execution. The root directory includes essential project files; please see the file ending in “flmd.csv” for a list and description of all files contained in this data package and the file ending in “dd.csv” for data dictionaries used to describe tabular column headers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Field Guide to Corralling the Chaos: A Conceptual Framework for Using Models to Guide Opportunistic Field Studies of Natural Disturbances

Watersheds regulate biogeochemical processes and provide ecosystem services to human societies, but disturbances can fundamentally alter these processes across space and time. Determining when and where to sample to capture disturbance impacts in watersheds remains a central challenge. Manipulation studies and long-term monitoring are often constrained by scope, and opportunistic studies often lack pre-disturbance data needed to statistically determine disturbance impacts. We identify a persistent knowledge gap: the absence of a clear, transferable framework to guide opportunistic disturbance research where pre-disturbance data collection is not a feasible option. To address this gap, we present a conceptual framework that intentionally integrates modeling and empirical observation in an iterative, stepwise model–experiment workflow. We demonstrate its application through two contrasting case studies: wildfire impacts on headwater streams using a pre-disturbance preparedness approach, and saltwater flooding impacts on coastal forests using an ‘ex-post-facto’ approach. From these applications, we assess strengths, limitations, and the critical role of team science for transferability across disturbance types and study designs. Broadly, this framework offers a scalable path towards more rigorous, timely, and actionable disturbance science that can inform watershed management, hazard risk reduction, and ecosystem resilience.

Coastal Biogeochemistry↗

Model Data for the Mesh Convergence Study Demonstrating Benefits of Mixed-polyhedral Mesh in Integrated Hydrology Simulations

This archived model data is related to a study introducing a unique method that employs a stream-aligned mixed-polyhedral mesh to effectively and accurately represent river valleys, stream corridors, and narrow engineered channels in integrated hydrology simulations. The study finds that utilizing stream-aligned mixed-polyhedral meshes in integrated hydrology simulations achieves accuracy on par with a finely refined TIN-based mesh while markedly diminishing computational costs. This archive contains scripts and data files needed to generate the ATS model input, including mesh and ATS input files, for all mesh scenarios using the Watershed Workflow package. Additionally, this archive also provides key outputs from the model simulations that are used in the analysis and post-processing scripts to reproduce figures in the manuscript. The Watershed Workflow package is implemented in Python3. The Jupyter notebooks can be executed through multiple open-source tools, for example, Anaconda Jupyter Lab, VS Studio Code, etc. Other data files include CSV and HDF5 files, which can be read through Python scripts. The input files for the ATS model, open-source integrated hydrology, and transport model are in XML format and can be edited in any commonly used text editors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model-Data for Joint Estimation of Biogeochemical Model Parameters from Multiple Experiments: A Bayesian Approach Applied to Mercury Methylation

This modeling archive supports the manuscript submitted for publication in the Environmental Modeling and Software. This study is supported by ORNL-SFA and IDEAS-Watershed. This study aims to improve calibration of complex biogeochemical models using datasets from multiple experiments targeting specific subprocesses. The proposed Bayesian joint-fitting scheme calibrates the entire biogeochemical model in one go using all the available datasets and estimate parameter uncertainties using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This allows for complete propagation of uncertainties and utilization of the information shared between different datasets. Mapping joint distribution of parameters guides model improvement by identifying null spaces in the parameter space. This archive contains files used to perform MCMC, post-process outputs and visualize results.

East Fork Poplar Creek↗