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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9

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DOE OSTI2025

“Godzilla,” the Extreme African Dust Event of June 2020: Origins, Transport, and Impact on Air Quality in the Greater Caribbean Basin

In June 2020, the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Basin were affected by a series of African dust outbreaks unprecedented in size and intensity. These events, informally named “Godzilla,” coincided with CALIMA, a large field campaign, offering a rare opportunity to assess the impact of African dust on air quality in the Greater Caribbean Basin. Network measurements of respirable particles (i.e., PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) showed that dust significantly degraded regional air quality and increased the risk to public health in the Caribbean, the southern United States, northern South America, and Central America. CALIMA examined the meteorological context of Godzilla dust events over North Africa and how these conditions might relate to the greatly increased dust emissions and enhanced transport to the Americas. Godzilla was linked to strong pressure anomalies over West Africa, resulting in a large-scale geostrophic wind anomaly at 700 hPa over North Africa. We used surface-based and columnar measurements to test the performance of two frequently used aerosol forecast models: the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) models. The models showed some skills but differed substantially between their forecasts, suggesting large uncertainties in these forecasts that are critical for issuing early warnings of health-threatening dust events. Our results demonstrate the value of an integrated approach in characterizing the spatial and temporal variability of African dust transport and assessing its impact on regional air quality. Future studies are needed to improve models and to track the long-term changes in dust transport from Africa under a changing climate.

Aerosols/particulates↗

DOE OSTI2022

Performance of New Near-Real-Time PERSIANN Product (PDIR-Now) for Atmospheric River Events over the Russian River Basin, California

Most heavy precipitation events and extreme flooding over the U.S. Pacific coast can be linked to prevalent atmospheric river (AR) conditions. Thus, reliable quantitative precipitation estimation with a rich spatiotemporal resolution is vital for water management and early warning systems of flooding and landslides over these regions. At the same time, high-quality near-real-time measurements of AR precipitation remain challenging due to the complex topographic features of land surface and meteorological conditions of the region: specifically, orographic features occlude radar measurements while infrared-based algorithms face challenges, differentiating between both cold brightband (BB) precipitation and the warmer nonbrightband (NBB) precipitation. It should be noted that the latter precipitation is characterized by greater orographic enhancement. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a recently developed near-real-time satellite precipitation algorithm: Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate-Now (PDIR-Now). This model is primarily dependent on infrared information from geostationary satellites as input; consequently, PDIR-Now has the advantage of short data latency, 15–60-min delay between observation to precipitation product delivery. The performance of PDIR-Now is analyzed with a focus on AR-related events for cases dominated by NBB and BB precipitation over the Russian River basin. In our investigations, we utilize S-band (3-GHz) precipitation profilers with Joss/Parsivel disdrometer measurements at the Middletown and Santa Rosa stations to classify BB and NBB precipitation events. In general, our analysis shows that PDIR-Now is more skillful in retrieving precipitation rates over both BB and NBB events across the topologically complex study area as compared to PERSIANN-Cloud Classification System (CCS). Also, we discuss the performance of well-known operational near-real-time precipitation products from 2017 to 2019. Conventional categorical and volumetric categorical indices, as well as continuous statistical metrics, are used to show the differences between various high-resolution precipitation products such as Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Flood Predictability in Taiwan through Coupled Atmospheric–Hydrological and High-Performance Hydrodynamic Models

Effective flood simulation capabilities can tremendously support early warning and disaster prevention. To examine the applicability of a fully physics-based and high-performance flood simulation and forecasting modeling framework for a flood-prone region in Taiwan, we conduct a numerical experiment that couples the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, WRF-Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro), and the Two-Dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON) to perform integrated rainfall, streamflow, and flood simulations. Furthermore, we first use the coupled WRF and WRF-Hydro (WWH) to predict rainfall and streamflow and then drive TRITON with the predicted streamflow hydrographs to simulate flood depth and inundation area. With the refined spatial resolution and parameterization, this framework can better predict rainfall with reasonable spatial patterns. Although WWH could overestimate the amount of rainfall in some areas, the uncertain rainfall–streamflow predictions produce reasonable flood maps able to pinpoint regions at risk of flooding. In terms of model efficiency, the graphics processing unit–based computation can yield a speed-up factor as high as ∼13 compared to the central processing unit–based computation, promoting the efficacy of the coupled modeling framework in practical real-time flood forecasting.

Coupled models↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of machine learning errors on human decision-making: manipulations of model accuracy, error types, and error importance

Abstract This study addressed the cognitive impacts of providing correct and incorrect machine learning (ML) outputs in support of an object detection task. The study consisted of five experiments that manipulated the accuracy and importance of mock ML outputs. In each of the experiments, participants were given the T and L task with T-shaped targets and L-shaped distractors. They were tasked with categorizing each image as target present or target absent. In Experiment 1, they performed this task without the aid of ML outputs. In Experiments 2–5, they were shown images with bounding boxes, representing the output of an ML model. The outputs could be correct (hits and correct rejections), or they could be erroneous (false alarms and misses). Experiment 2 manipulated the overall accuracy of these mock ML outputs. Experiment 3 manipulated the proportion of different types of errors. Experiments 4 and 5 manipulated the importance of specific types of stimuli or model errors, as well as the framing of the task in terms of human or model performance. These experiments showed that model misses were consistently harder for participants to detect than model false alarms. In general, as the model’s performance increased, human performance increased as well, but in many cases the participants were more likely to overlook model errors when the model had high accuracy overall. Warning participants to be on the lookout for specific types of model errors had very little impact on their performance. Overall, our results emphasize the importance of considering human cognition when determining what level of model performance and types of model errors are acceptable for a given task.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Driver Identification Dataset

The ORNL Driver Identification Dataset was created to collect and analyze driving behavior data from 50 different drivers. Each driver operated a 2014 Kenworth T270 Class 6 truck around Fort Collins, Colorado while various data sources recorded their driving behavior and vehicle performance. The dataset includes CANbus (Controller Area Network) data, GPS data, inertial measurement data, and biometric data from a heart rate monitor. A cyberattack was executed during each drive, which caused multiple dashboard warning lights to illuminate and set the tachometer and speedometer to zero, regardless of actual speed. The attack was stopped either after one minute or if the driver pulled over. By downloading the dataset, you agree to the following: 1) I will not use or disclose the data for any purpose other than Research as that term is defined in 10 CFR 745.102. 2) I will not, under any circumstances, request or accept private or linking identifiers for the data used. 3) I will not attempt to determine the identity of the individuals associated with the data. 4) I will use appropriate safeguards to prevent the use or disclose of the data for any purpose other than Research.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improving probabilistic infectious disease forecasting through coherence

With an estimated $10.4 billion in medical costs and 31.4 million outpatient visits each year, influenza poses a serious burden of disease in the United States. To provide insights and advance warning into the spread of influenza, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) runs a challenge for forecasting weighted influenza-like illness (wILI) at the national and regional level. Many models produce independent forecasts for each geographical unit, ignoring the constraint that the national wILI is a weighted sum of regional wILI, where the weights correspond to the population size of the region. We propose a novel algorithm that transforms a set of independent forecast distributions to obey this constraint, which we refer to as probabilistically coherent. Enforcing probabilistic coherence led to an increase in forecast skill for 79% of the models we tested over multiple flu seasons, highlighting the importance of respecting the forecasting system’s geographical hierarchy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Early prediction of antigenic transitions for influenza A/H3N2

Influenza A/H3N2 is a rapidly evolving virus which experiences major antigenic transitions every two to eight years. Anticipating the timing and outcome of transitions is critical to developing effective seasonal influenza vaccines. Using a published phylodynamic model of influenza transmission, we identified indicators of future evolutionary success for an emerging antigenic cluster and quantified fundamental trade-offs in our ability to make such predictions. The eventual fate of a new cluster depends on its initial epidemiological growth rate––which is a function of mutational load and population susceptibility to the cluster––along with the variance in growth rate across co-circulating viruses. Logistic regression can predict whether a cluster at 5% relative frequency will eventually succeed with ~80% sensitivity, providing up to eight months advance warning. As a cluster expands, the predictions improve while the lead-time for vaccine development and other interventions decreases. However, attempts to make comparable predictions from 12 years of empirical influenza surveillance data, which are far sparser and more coarse-grained, achieve only 56% sensitivity. By expanding influenza surveillance to obtain more granular estimates of the frequencies of and population-wide susceptibility to emerging viruses, we can better anticipate major antigenic transitions. This provides added incentives for accelerating the vaccine production cycle to reduce the lead time required for strain selection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making

West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m–km, days–weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning of factors for improving oyster hatchery production

Oyster aquaculture and restoration in the Chesapeake Bay are vital, yet hatcheries frequently struggle with inconsistent larval growth and sudden mass mortality events. Unpredictable disruptions in larval production cause large economic losses, represent a perceived risk to growers, and impede industry expansion. To better understand associations between production yield and its potential predictors, we applied machine learning (random forest, and neural network) and statistical (generalized additive model) models to a comprehensive dataset of environmental, water quality, and operational parameters from a Maryland oyster hatchery, aiming to identify key yield predictors and develop a robust forecasting tool. We used recursive Boruta algorithm for variable selection, pinpointing critical predictors, and employed cross-validation to fine-tune model settings. Shapley value analysis offered crucial insights into model interpretations, highlighting week number, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, salinity, turbidity, and fecundity as primary drivers of yield variability. For low-yield cases, salinity-related variables were particularly important. Our findings provide an early warning system for potential production downturns, empowering hatchery operators to make data-driven decisions for optimizing water conditions, feeding schedules, and broodstock management. By boosting predictability and efficiency, this research directly supports economic stability of the oyster industry and ecological health of the Chesapeake Bay.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2026

Daily evapotranspiration changes during heatwaves at 32 NEON sites, 2019-2021

This dataset provides partitioned evapotranspiration (ET, the combined loss of water from soil and plant surfaces) anomalies during heatwave events—soil evaporation (E) and transpiration (T)—for 268 heatwave events across 32 National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) flux sites in the contiguous United States from 2019–2021. Using an ensemble of four high-frequency turbulence methods (Flux-variance Similarity, Conditional Eddy Covariance [CEC], CEC with Water-Use Efficiency, and Conditional Eddy Accumulation; see Zahn and Bou-Zeid 2024), half-hourly transpiration-to-evapotranspiration (T/ET) ratios were derived from 20 hertz (Hz, cycles per second) eddy covariance measurements of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and water vapor (H₂O) concentrations. The dataset spans six vegetation types including evergreen and deciduous forests, grasslands, cultivated crops, shrublands, and emergent herbaceous wetlands. Data Package Contents: The dataset includes a single CSV (comma-separated values) file containing daily anomalies (deviations from baseline conditions) for transpiration (Delta_T), evaporation (Delta_E), total evapotranspiration (Delta_ET), and T/ET ratio (Delta_T_ET) during each day of identified heatwave events. The file also includes site codes, dates, heatwave event identifiers, and day-of-heatwave indicators. The CSV file can be opened with spreadsheet software (Microsoft Excel, Google Sheets) or programming environments (Python, R, MATLAB). This resource enables researchers to investigate ecosystem-specific responses to thermal extremes, validate land surface model partitioning of ET fluxes, and examine feedbacks between water cycling and surface energy balance during heatwaves. The dataset is particularly valuable for studies linking vegetation hydraulic strategies to climate resilience, as it captures the divergent responses of shallow-rooted versus deep-rooted ecosystems. Potential applications include improving drought early warning systems, informing irrigation management strategies, and advancing our mechanistic understanding of land-atmosphere interactions under extreme heat conditions.

Day of Heatwave↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Wrapper to Use a Machine-Learning-Based Algorithm for Earthquake Monitoring

Seismology is one of the main sciences used to monitor volcanic activity worldwide. Fast, efficient, and accurate seismicity detectors are crucial to assess the activity level of a volcano in near–real time and to issue timely warnings. Traditional real–time seismic processing software uses phase onset pickers followed by a phase association algorithm to declare an event and estimate its location. The pickers typically do not identify whether the detected phase is a P or S arrival, which can have a negative impact on hypocentral location quality and complicates phase association. We implemented the deep–neural–network–based method PhaseNet to identify in real time P and S seismic waves on data from one– and three–component seismometers. We tuned the Earthworm binder_ew associator module to use the phase identification from PhaseNet to detect and locate the events, which we archive in a SeisComP3 database. We assessed the performance of the algorithm by comparing the results with existing catalogs built to monitor seismic and volcanic activity in Mayotte and the Lesser Antilles region. Our algorithm, which we refer to as PhaseWorm, showed promising results in both contexts and clearly outperformed the previous automatic method implemented in Mayotte. As a result, this innovative real–time processing system is now operational for seismicity monitoring in Mayotte and Martinique.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Crowdsourcing Felt Reports Using the MyShake Smartphone App

MyShake is a free citizen science smartphone app that provides a range of features related to earthquakes. Features available globally include rapid postearthquake notifications, live maps of earthquake damage as reported by MyShake users, safety tips, and various educational features. The app also uses the accelerometer in the mobile device to detect earthquake shaking, and to record and submit waveforms to a central archive. In addition, MyShake delivers earthquake early warning alerts in California, Oregon, and Washington. Here, in this study, we compare the felt shaking reports provided by MyShake users in California with the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGSs) “Did You Feel It?” intensity reports. The MyShake app simply asks, “What strength of shaking did you feel?” and users report on a five-level scale. When the MyShake reports are averaged in spatial or time bins, we find strong correlation with the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale values reported by the USGS based on the DYFI surveys. The MyShake felt reports can therefore contribute to the creation of shaking intensity maps.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

IDAES-PSE 2.0 Release

The Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Integrated Platform is a versatile computational environment offering extensive process systems engineering (PSE) capabilities for optimizing the design and operation of complex, interacting technologies and systems. IDAES enables users to efficiently search vast, complex design spaces to discover the lowest cost, most environmentally sustainable solutions while supporting the full process modeling lifecycle, from conceptual design to dynamic optimization and control. The extensible, open platform empowers users to create models of novel processes and rapidly develop custom analyses, workflows, and end-user applications. IDAES-PSE 2.0.0 Release Highlights Removal of deprecated features from IDAES v1 Update to Pyomo v6.5 – this required a number of updates to support the new NL solver writer and to address some changes in Pyomo Creation of new testing suite for backward compatibility, model robustness and verification More general implementation of the Helmholtz EoS. This brings some new features like standard property diagrams, choice of mass or mole basis, and new state variable options Standardizing names in Heat Exchanger models (breaking change from v2.0.0a2): Control Volumes named hot_side and cold_side Ports names hot_side_inlet, hot_side_outlet, cold_side_inlet and cold_side_outlet Config Blocks names hot_side_config and cold_side_config Config arguments for user provided names for each side: hot_side_name and cold_side_name. Updating Keras surrogate tool to use v1.1 of OMLT New prototype API for model initialization (idaes.core.initialization) The new API uses "Model Initializer" objects instead of class methods, allowing for the definition of multiple initialization routines for a single model A number of common, model agnostic initialization routines have also been defined, including initialization from data, block-decomposition and a general hierarchical approach equivalent to the existing method for common unit models New metadata for thermophysical properties – valid_range This can be used to record the range of values over which a property value can be trusted, such as the range of experimental data used to regress parameters A number of new utility functions have been added to check for properties with values outside the valid range and to set bounds based on this metadata Updated construction of balance expressions in Control Volumes to remove unneeded terms In the past, unneeded terms were added as a constant 0 term, however they will now be dropped entirely from the expression This was necessary due to more strict unit checking in the new Pyomo solver writer which no longer ignores 0 terms Updates to metadata for thermophysical properties to better define known properties and units of measurement This results in more strict enforcement of standard naming for thermophysical and reaction properties Users can still define custom properties, but these must be done explicitly using the define_custom_properties() method instead of being implicitly created by add_property() Updated convergence tester utility tool to support definition of benchmark files (JSON format) and comparison of performance to benchmarks Set default iteration limit for IPOPT in IDAES config to 200 iterations Update scaling of example models to work with new Pyomo NL solver writer Improve testing of extensions and examples infrastructure to avoid need for downloading files Updated distillation column to centralize common functionality and remove a number of Pyomo warnings

IDAES↗

DOE OSTI2022

PARETO 0.3.0 Release

PARETO 0.3.0 Release. Highlights: - Fixing Warning in get_data - Clean up of old main function which has been replaced by the run files - Adding plot_scatter() function - Support node capacity - Add Gurobi troubleshooting files to gitignore by @melody-shellman - Set slacks to zero - Water treatment case study - Fix defaultvalue treatement - Fix bug for incorrect number of input arguments in water quality - Pipeline configs documentation - Enable rendering Unicode characters in ReadTheDocs PDF builds - Adding support for units - Add discrete water quality to the model - Updating documentation for strategic model, and corresponding fixes to strategic model - Rework getting started docs build section and more - Enable Codecov reports in CI builds - Correct error in CompletionsPadSupplyBalanceRule

PARETO,PSE,Process Systems Engineering,Produced wa↗

DOE OSTI2023

IDAES-PSE 2.3.0 Release

DiagnosticsToolbox,IDAES,PSE,Process Systems Engin↗

DOE OSTI2024

IDAES-PSE 2.5.0 Release

The Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Integrated Platform is a versatile computational environment offering extensive process systems engineering (PSE) capabilities for optimizing the design and operation of complex, interacting technologies and systems. IDAES enables users to efficiently search vast, complex design spaces to discover the lowest cost, most environmentally sustainable solutions while supporting the full process modeling lifecycle, from conceptual design to dynamic optimization and control. The extensible, open platform empowers users to create models of novel processes and rapidly develop custom analyses, workflows, and end-user applications. IDAES-PSE 2.5.0 Release Highlights Upcoming Changes IDAES will be switching to the new Pyomo solver interface in the next release. Whilst this will hopefully be a smooth transition for most users, there are a few important changes to be aware of. The new solver interface uses a different version of the IPOPT writer (“ipopt_v2”) and thus any custom configuration options you might have set for IPOPT will not carry over and will need to be reset. By default, the new Pyomo linear presolver will be activated with ipopt_v2. Whilst are working to identify any bugs in the presolver, it is possible that some edge cases will remain. IDAES will begin deploying a new set of scaling tools and APIs over the next few releases that make use of the new solver writers. The old scaling tools and APIs will remain for backward compatibility but will begin to be deprecated. New Models, Tools and Features New diagnostics check for near-parallel variables and constraints. New diagnostics tools for identifying causes of infeasibility in models. New example for creating a custom model of a liquid-liquid extractor unit operation. Bug Fixes Fixed bug in Gibbs reactor that caused it to appear to have additional spurious degrees of freedom. Fixed bug in the Modular Property Framework that would cause errors when trying to use phase-based material balances with phase equilibria. Fixed bug in Modular Properties Framework that caused errors when initializing models with non-vapor-liquid phase equilibria. Testing and Robustness Deployed the IDAES Diagnostics Toolbox to confirm that there are no structural or numerical issues in the core model libraries. Additional robustness tests for core model, and some associated improvements in the converge tester class. Fixed a number of issues that were causing unexpected warnings to be emitted during testing. Deprecations and Removals Removed examples for RIPE tool which has not been supported for a number of releases.

AS↗

DOE OSTI2020

MCNP6 Source Primer: Release 1.0

This document contains examples of MCNP general source usage to support the MCNP6 User’s Manual. The examples range from basic to advanced sources with different applications. There are also examples of how MCNP can fail and warnings for the users to look for at the output to ensure proper results are being created. The overall aim of this document is to provide solid examples of how to define sources with MCNP as well as how to verify the sources are setup properly. The reasoning for needing such complex sources is not discussed in the present work. Also, this document is not meant to be exhaustive of every MCNP source option and combinations of source options possible. However, it is intended to frequently update this document with new source examples provided by users. Please feel free to contact the MCNP6 development team to learn about how to submit a new or updated source example. Please include “General Sources Primer” in the subject line to route the request to the appropriate developers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

ADPSM Learning Team Review 2015-001. NPI-7 Drum/POC Dropped – Leads to Improved Lifting

As part of the ADPSM Safety Improvement Plan, the WSST has established a subcommittee for a Learning Team. The purpose of a Learning Team is to transfer and communicate the information into operational feedback and improvement. We want to pay attention to the small things that go wrong because they are often early warning signals and may provide insight into the health of the whole system.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗