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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Losing Control of Your Linear Network? Try Resilience Theory

Resilience of cyber-physical networks to unexpected failures is a critical need widely recognized across domains. For instance, power grids, telecommunication networks, transportation infrastructures, and water treatment systems have all been subject to disruptive malfunctions and catastrophic cyberattacks. Following such adverse events, we investigate scenarios where a node of a linear network suffers a loss of control authority over some of its actuators. These actuators are not following the controller's commands and are instead producing undesirable outputs. The repercussions of such a loss of control can propagate and destabilize the whole network despite the malfunction occurring at a single node. To assess system vulnerability, we establish resilience conditions for networks with a subsystem enduring a loss of control authority over some of its actuators. Furthermore, we quantify the destabilizing impact on the overall network when such a malfunction perturbs a nonresilient subsystem. We illustrate our resilience conditions on two academic examples, on an islanded microgrid and on the linearized IEEE 39-bus system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preemptive optimization of a clinical antibody for broad neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 variants and robustness against viral escape

Most previously authorized clinical antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have lost neutralizing activity to recent variants due to rapid viral evolution. To mitigate such escape, we preemptively enhance AZD3152, an antibody authorized for prophylaxis in immunocompromised individuals. Using deep mutational scanning (DMS) on the SARS-CoV-2 antigen, we identify AZD3152 vulnerabilities at antigen positions F456 and D420. Through two iterations of computational antibody design that integrates structure-based modeling, machine-learning, and experimental validation, we co-optimize AZD3152 against 24 contemporary and previous SARS-CoV-2 variants, as well as 20 potential future escape variants. Our top candidate, 3152-1142, restores full potency (100-fold improvement) against the more recently emerged XBB.1.5+F456L variant that escaped AZD3152, maintains potency against previous variants of concern, and shows no additional vulnerability as assessed by DMS. This preemptive mitigation demonstrates a generalizable approach for optimizing existing antibodies against potential future viral escape.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distribution Grid Impact Study in Highland Park, Michigan: Understanding Rooftop Solar, Behind-the-Meter Energy Storage, Electric Vehicle Charging, and Building Electrification [Slides]

Through the Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) Pilot, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) engaged the Highland Park Stakeholder Coalition to scope four technical assistance work areas to address their energy needs and goals. This slide deck addresses the highlighted tasks under work area "B" related to policy analysis, due diligence, and case studies for removing barriers and providing best practices for local clean energy development. Highland Park community members face frequent, long-duration power interruptions due largely to the aging distribution system serving the area and the legacy design standards used in its construction. While degrading physical infrastructure such as poles, crossarms, and transformers can result in this substandard reliability, another notable characteristic of this legacy system is the lower, 4.8 kV, voltage class. This is a legacy construction standard which many utilities, DTE included, are phasing out in favor of higher, 15 or 25 kV, voltage classes instead. The existing 4.8 kV distribution system serving Highland Park may limit significant adoptions of clean-energy technologies like high percentages of building electrification or electric vehicle adoption. The following analysis seeks to quantify these limitations under a variety of clean-energy technology adoption scenarios. It compares the overall system risks of the present system to those of a hypothetical, upgraded 13.2 kV system, using NREL-developed risk metrics and offers upgrade cost considerations. The legacy 4.8 kV voltage class serving Highland park is not, as we have modeled it, a major limitation to the widespread adoption of cost-optimal rooftop solar and/or behind-the-meter energy storage. Within our modeling framework, these technologies namely impact secondary, low-voltage assets, which may be remedied without the need for a system-wide upgrade to a 13.2 kV voltage class. Our model of the current 4.8kV system indicates it is not capable of supporting community-wide electrification efforts. Widespread building electrification, and the resulting large increase in wintertime load, dramatically increases the prevalence of voltage violations and thermal overloading on the current 4.8 kV distribution system. These impacts illustrate the need for system-wide upgrades to a 13.2 kV voltage class to accommodate these technologies. Low to Moderate DER adoption does not adversely impact the grid but does improve undervoltage and asset overloading issues. However, these benefits are insufficient to defer grid upgrades. Higher DER penetration is shown to increase overvoltage and asset overloading in future electrification scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electric Grid Security (EGS) FY24 Annual Report

Sandia’s Electric Grid Security program advances a national vision of a secure, resilient, and affordable electric system for all users. Our achievements reflect a strategic approach combining technology development; modeling, simulation, and data analytics; and partnered demonstrations and outreach to further the adoption of advanced grid and storage technologies. Our FY24 efforts leverage the strengths of our partnerships—spanning Sandia’s core science and technology competencies as well as external technology leaders—to develop the solutions today which enable the grid of tomorrow. Key accomplishments in this report that support our strategy span our technical program areas and include: • The advancement of energy storage technologies, including creation of a national Long Duration Energy Storage Consortium; • Applications of artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhanced grid operations and planning; • Development of solid-state power conversion technologies and a new medium-voltage research lab; • New technologies to assess wildfire vulnerabilities and mitigate potential impacts; • Advanced applications of new cybersecurity technologies with industry partners; • Contributions to understanding the impacts of electromagnetic pulses and geomagnetic disturbances on grid components; and • Digital twin development for hybrid microgrids with multiple generators, storage, and loads.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

FY25 Electric Grid Security Annual Report

Sandia’s Electric Grid Security program advances a national vision of energy dominance and accessibility, while applying our national security -emphasis on ensuring of a secure, resilient, and affordable electric system for all users. Our achievements reflect a strategic approach combining technology development; modeling, simulation, and data analytics; and partnered demonstrations and outreach to further the adoption of advanced grid and storage technologies. Our FY25 efforts leverage the strengths of our partnerships—spanning Sandia’s core science and technology competencies as well as external technology leaders—to develop the solutions today which enable the grid of tomorrow. Key accomplishments in this report that support our strategy span our technical program areas and include: • New open-source analytical tools for systems -level planning and optimization, including significant advances to the QuESt analytical environment; • Further advancement of artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhanced grid operations and planning as we rise to the challenge of new large loads; • Development of solid-state power conversion technologies and a new medium-voltage research lab; • New technologies to assess wildfire vulnerabilities and mitigate potential impacts; • Advanced applications of new cybersecurity technologies with industry partners; • Contributions to understanding the impacts of electromagnetic pulses and geomagnetic disturbances on grid components; and • Digital twin development for hybrid microgrids with multiple generators, storage, and loads. This report indicates key areas of research and engagement and summarizes the impact of Sandia’s contributions through notable accomplishments, journal publications, patents, and technical conferences and presentations. It is provided with the hope that readers discover ways we can further team to create our modern grid and apply the outcomes of our efforts. The bulk of work described herein is funded by several offices within the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE), including the Office of Electricity (OE); Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER); former offices such as the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), the Grid Deployment Office (GDO), the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (OCED), and other key programs at USDOE. As we continue to state in these annual reports, the contributors to our successes are too numerous to name here, though our team wishes to express our deep gratitude to the numerous program and project sponsors at the US Department of Energy, who often function equally as technical collaborators; our many partners in industry, academia, utilities, and other national labs; and fellow researchers and business partners at Sandia whose leadership and creativity have enabled the accomplishments described herein.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cybersecurity Resiliency of Marine Renewable Energy Systems Part 2: Cybersecurity Best Practices and Risk Management

Marine renewable energy (MRE) is an emerging source of power for marine applications, marine devices, and coastal communities. This energy source relies on industrial control systems and IT to support operations and maintenance activities, which create a pathway for an adversary to gain unauthorized access to systems and data and disrupt operations. Incorporating cybersecurity risk prevention measures and mitigation capabilities from inception, development, operation, to decommissioning of the MRE system and components is paramount to the protection of energy generation and the security of network architecture and infrastructure. To improve the resilience of MRE systems as a predictable, affordable, and reliable source of energy, cybersecurity guidance was developed to enable operators to assess cybersecurity risks and implement security measures commensurate with the risk. This publication is the second of a two-part series, with Part 1 addressing a framework to determine cybersecurity risk by assessing the vulnerability of an MRE system to potential cyber threats and the consequences a cyberattack would have on the end user. This Part 2 publication describes an approach to select appropriate cybersecurity best practices commensurate with the MRE system's cybersecurity risk. The guidance includes 86 cybersecurity best practices, which are associated with 36 cybersecurity domains and grouped into nine categories. The best practices follow the core functions of the National Institute of Science and Technology Cybersecurity Framework (e.g., identify, detect, protect, respond, and and recover) and insights from both maritime and energy industry guidance documents to identify security measures effective in protecting information and operational technology assets prevalent in MRE systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Inferred inflow forecast horizons guiding reservoir release decisions across the United States

Abstract. Medium- to long-range forecasts often guide reservoir release decisions to support water management objectives, including mitigating flood and drought risks. While there is a burgeoning field of science targeted at improving forecast products and associated decision support models, data describing how and when forecasts are applied in practice remain undeveloped. This lack of knowledge may prevent hydrological modelers from developing accurate reservoir release schemes for large-scale, distributed hydrology models that are increasingly used to assess the vulnerabilities of large regions to hydrological stress. We address this issue by estimating seasonally varying, regulated inflow forecast horizons used in the operations of more than 300 dams throughout the conterminous United States (CONUS). For each dam, we take actual forward observed inflows (perfect foresight) as a proxy for forecasted flows available to the operator and then identify for each week of the year the forward horizon that best explains the release decisions taken. Resulting “horizon curves” specify for each dam the inferred inflow forecast horizon as a function of the week of the water year. These curves are analyzed for strength of evidence for contribution of medium- to long-range forecasts in decision making. We use random forest classification to estimate that approximately 80 % of large dams and reservoirs in the US (1553±50 out of 1927 dams with at least 10 Mm3 storage capacity) adopt medium- to long-range inflow forecasts to inform release decisions during at least part of the water year. Long-range forecast horizons (more than 6 weeks ahead) are detected in the operations of reservoirs located in high-elevation regions of the western US, where snowpack information likely guides the release. A simulation exercise conducted on four key western US reservoirs indicates that forecast-informed models of reservoir operations may outperform models that neglect the horizon curve – including during flood and drought conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Thermal analysis of combinatorial solid geometry models using SINDA

Algorithms have been developed using Monte Carlo techniques to determine the thermal network parameters necessary to perform a finite difference analysis on Combinatorial Solid Geometry (CSG) models. Orbital and laser fluxes as well as internal heat generation are modeled to facilitate satellite modeling. The results of the thermal calculations are used to model the infrared (IR) images of targets and assess target vulnerability. Sample analyses and validation are presented which demonstrate code products.

Gerencser, Diane↗
NASA NTRS1994

Science priorities for the human dimensions of global change

The topics covered include the following: defining research needs; understanding land use change; improving policy analysis -- research on the decision-making process; designing policy instruments and institutions to address energy-related environmental problems; assessing impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation to global changes; and understanding population dynamics and global change.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mapping SIEM Vulnerabilities in STIG

SIEM (Security Information and Event Management) tools monitor network traffic and allow users to quickly detect problems in their networks. Because of the valuable information processed by SIEM tools, it is important to understand their vulnerabilities. STIG (Structured Threat Intelligence Graph) is an application created at INL used to visualize data related to cyber threats. Using STIG can allow users to understand vulnerabilities related to their SIEM products and how to protect their systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Supporting U.S. National Security Through Cybersecurity Partnerships

At NLR, we're studying energy evolutions and threats to understand the challenges they pose and uncover ways to leverage grid advancements to achieve more secure, defensible, and reliable systems. Our integrated research approach bridges the gap between cyber threats and real-world consequences to deliver actionable solutions that reduce vulnerabilities and help strengthen U.S. national security.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bridge Seismic Screening Tool (BSST), Version 2.0

The Regional Resiliency Assessment Program (RRAP) is a cooperative assessment of specific critical infrastructure within a designated geographic area and a regional analysis of the surrounding infrastructure that addresses a range of infrastructure resilience issues that could have regionally and nationally significant consequences. In 2018, DHS’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) sponsored the Oregon Transportation Systems RRAP project in coordination with the Office of the Governor (under the oversight of the state resilience officer), the Oregon Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT), and other regional stakeholders (CISA 2021). This project focuses on assessing the impacts of a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake on state transportation systems and, in particular, how those impacts may affect the ability of emergency response efforts to move supplies into the region. The intended outcome of this analysis is the prioritization of transportation routes and modes for additional planning, investment, hardening, or other activities to enhance their resilience—and therefore, to enhance their ability to support response and recovery efforts following a CSZ earthquake. An important part of this transportation system-level assessment has been to assess the seismic vulnerability of the state highway system. In doing so, the RRAP project team used the Bridge Seismic Screening Tool (BSST) to assess, at a system-level, the potential impacts that a CSZ earthquake could have on state highway bridges (Bergerson et al. 2019).1 Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne), in collaboration with the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT), originally developed the BSST as part of the 2017 Washington State Transportation Systems RRAP project, a sister project to the 2018 Oregon Transportation Systems RRAP project. Argonne updated the BSST during this more recent project in Oregon based on feedback from stakeholders and subject matter experts (SMEs) on the original version of the tool. The first step in the BSST is to assess the seismic vulnerability of roadway bridges following a CSZ earthquake to determine a projected or potential damage state. Damage states then help determine approximate reopening times for bridge crossings.2 This document provides details on the BSST methodology, the implementation of that tool to analyze the projected damage incurred in a CSZ earthquake scenario, and the determination of corresponding reopening times of interstate, state highway, and local bridges following such an event.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Mathematical Framework for Representing Cyber-Physical System Interdependencies and Resilience

U.S. critical infrastructure is increasingly composed of integrated cyber-physical systems (CPS) whose components are operationally interdependent. These interdependencies can create additional vulnerabilities beyond those that are typically evaluated through independent physical and cyber risk assessments. These additional vulnerabilities, previously undetected at the sub-system and/or component level, could cause cascading effects across both the physical and cyber domains that could lead to infrastructure disruption or failure. This paper will review an initial mathematical framework developed to help understand the dynamics of these interfacing physical and cyber components at a holistic system level. The resulting framework also provides a method for modeling and assessing the resilience of CPS in complex and adaptive systems. It frames the system in terms of mission performance and the potential effects to performance caused by attacks that are cyber, physical, or blended in nature. The framework utilizes a systems-based, state-space modeling approach to reason about risk, resilience, and interdependencies in CPS. Probabilities are applied to each CPS component regarding a threat (both man-made and natural) and the likelihood of that particular component being impacted, along with indirect impact to other interdependent components. These component-level impacts from threats then translate into mission-level impact and systemic state change.

Brigantic, Robert T.↗
NASA NTRS1972

A modular approach for assessing the effect of radiation environments on man in operational systems. The radiobiological vulnerability of man during task performance

A modular approach for assessing the affects of radiation environments on man in operational systems has been developed. The feasibility of the model has been proved and the practicality has been assessed. It has been applied to one operational system to date and information obtained has been submitted to systems analysts and mission planners for the assessment of man's vulnerability and impact on systems survivability. In addition, the model has been developed so that the radiobiological data can be input to a sophisticated man-machine interface model to properly relate the radiobiological stress with other mission stresses including the effects of a degraded system.

Ewing, D. E.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mapping heat vulnerability in cities: A tale of two california cities

Extreme heat is a major cause of weather-related deaths in the United States. To address this, a heat vulnerability index (HVI) is crucial for assessing heat risk and identifying vulnerable urban areas and populations, supporting city planning and emergency response. Current HVI studies often use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on environmental, socioeconomic, and medical data to aggregate vulnerability indicators into a single index. However, these fixed aggregation weights struggle to adapt to different use cases, which may require varying focuses. Moreover, existing tools primarily consider outdoor heat exposure, providing an incomplete picture of actual exposure, as people spend most of their time indoors. Our research introduces an HVI web mapping tool that addresses these gaps in the literature by: (1) allowing flexible weights to adapt to different use cases, and (2) uniquely integrating both outdoor and indoor heat exposure by considering building characteristics for a more comprehensive risk assessment. We demonstrated this tool in two California cities with contrasting climates: Fresno (inland, arid, hot summers) and Oakland (temperate coastal). This HVI mapping tool provides essential decision support for policymakers and stakeholders in both short-term heat mitigation and long-term urban planning for building interventions and infrastructure development.

BES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

Future water scarcity is a global concern with significant impacts on the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods consumed around the world, so disruptions resulting from land and water scarcity in LAC are a source of global supply chain risk. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could drive that scarcity to emerge is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity impacts in LAC is challenging given the multisector dynamic interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across different spatial scales. We use scenario discovery to explore the drivers of future water scarcity, considering assumptions related to climate, socioeconomics, and the EWL sectors. Understanding what factors drive uncertainty across outcomes can help stakeholders in targeting long-term solutions and future data collection efforts. To illuminate these dynamics, we use a database consisting of a large ensemble of scenarios representing diverse worlds simulated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across the scenarios using three metrics: (1) physical water scarcity, (2) water price, and (3) crop profit. We find that physical water scarcity and water price are driven primarily by reservoir storage capacity assumptions, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability and accessibility. Crop profit is driven by a combination of water supply and demand assumptions, which emphasizes the complex nature of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for development, water basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high levels of severity and uncertainty across the future scenarios for at least one of the metrics. We find that the drivers of extreme scarcity vary spatially and across the metrics, further highlighting the heterogeneity of the region and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity vulnerability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vulnerability and resilience of urban energy ecosystems to extreme climate events: A systematic review and perspectives

We reviewed the present studies on the vulnerability and resilience of the energy ecosystem (most parts of the energy ecosystem), considering extreme climate events. This study revealed that the increased interactions formed during the transformation of the energy landscape into an ecosystem could notably increase the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure. Such complex ecosystem cannot be assessed using the present state of the art models used by the energy system modelers. Therefore, this study introduces a novel analogy known as the COVID analogy to understand the propagation of disruption within and beyond the energy ecosystem and organized the present state of the art based on the COVID analogy. The analogy helps to categorize the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure into three stages. The study revealed that although there are many publications covering the vulnerability and resilience of the energy infrastructure, considering extreme climate events, the majority are focused on the direct impact of extreme climate on the energy ecosystem. In addition, most of the studies do not consider the impact of future climate variations during this assessment. The propagation of disruptions was assessed mainly for wildfires and hurricanes. Further, there is a clear research gap in considering vulnerability assessment for interconnected energy infrastructure. Here, the transformation of energy systems into a complex ecosystem notably increases the complexity, making it difficult to assess vulnerability and resilience. A shift from a centralized to decentralized modeling architecture could be beneficial when considering the complexities brought by that transformation. Hybrid models consisting of both physical and data-driven machine learning techniques could also be beneficial in this context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗