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NASA NTRS1977

Probabilistic fracture mechanics and optimum fracture control of the solid rocket motor case of the shuttle

Development of a procedure for the reliability analysis of the solid rocket motor case of the space shuttle is described. The analysis is based on probabilistic fracture mechanics and consideration of a probability distribution for the initial flaw sizes. The reliability analysis can be used to select design variables, such as the thickness of the SRM case, projected design life and proof factor, on the basis of minimum expected cost and specified reliability bounds. Effects of fracture control plans such as the non-destructive inspections and the material erosion between missions can also be considered in the developed methodology for selection of design variables. The reliability-based procedure can be easily modified to consider other similar structures and different fracture control plans.

Hanagud, S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Sparse Direct Effects in Multivariate Regression With the Spike-and-Slab LASSO

The multivariate regression interpretation of the Gaussian chain graph model simultaneously parametrizes (i) the direct effects of p predictors on q outcomes and (ii) the residual partial covariances between pairs of outcomes. We introduce a new method for fitting sparse versions of these models with spike-and-slab LASSO (SSL) priors. We develop an Expectation Conditional Maximization algorithm to obtain sparse estimates of the p × q matrix of direct effects and the q × q residual precision matrix. Our algorithm iteratively solves a sequence of penalized maximum likelihood problems with self-adaptive penalties that gradually filter out negligible regression coefficients and partial covariances. Because it adaptively penalizes individual model parameters, our method is seen to outperform fixed-penalty competitors on simulated data. We establish the posterior contraction rate for our model, buttressing our method’s excellent empirical performance with strong theoretical guarantees. Using our method, we estimated the direct effects of diet and residence type on the composition of the gut microbiome of elderly adults.

EM algorithm↗

NASA NTRS1969

Analysis of urban residential environments using color infrared aerial photography: An examination of socioeconomic variables and physical characteristics of selected areas in the Los Angeles basin, with addendum: An application of the concepts of the Los Angeles residential environment study to the Ontario-Upland region of California

Aerial photographs taken with color infrared film were used to differentiate various types of residential areas in the Los Angeles basin, using characteristics of the physical environment which vary from one type of residential area to another. Residential areas of varying quality were classified based on these characteristics. Features of the physical environment, identifiable on CIR aerial photography were examined to determine which of these are the best indicators of quality of residential areas or social areas, as determined by the socioeconomic characteristics of the inhabitants of the selected areas. Association between several physical features and the socioeconomic variables was found to exist.

Mullens, R. H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Characterization of New Hard X-ray Cataclysmic Variables

Aims. We aim at characterizing a sample of nine new hard X-ray selected Cataclysmic Variable (CVs), to unambiguously identify them as magnetic systems of the Intermediate Polar (IP) type. Methods. We performed detailed timing and spectral analysis by using X-ray, and simultaneous UV and optical data collected by XMM−Newton, complemented with hard X-ray data provided by INTEGRAL and Swift. The pulse arrival time were used to estimate the orbital periods. The broad band X-ray spectra were fitted using composite models consisting of different absorbing columns and emission components. Results. Strong X-ray pulses at the White Dwarf (WD) spin period are detected and found to decrease with energy. Most sources are spin-dominated systems in the X-rays, though four are beat dominated at optical wavelengths. We estimated the orbital period in all system (except for IGR J16500-3307), providing the first estimate for IGRJ08390-4833, IGRJ18308-1232, and IGR J18173-2509. All X-ray spectra are multi-temperature. V2069 Cyg and RX J0636+3535 poses a soft X-ray optically thick component at kT approx. 80 eV. An intense K (sub alpha) Fe line at 6.4 keV is detected in all sources. An absorption edge at 0.76 keV from OVII is detected in IGR J08390-4833. The WD masses and lower limits to the accretion rates are also estimated. Conclusions. We found all sources to be IPs. IGR J08390-4833, V2069 Cyg, and IGR J16500-3307 are pure disc accretors, while IGR J18308-1232, IGR J1509-6649, IGR J17195-4100, and RX J0636+3535 display a disc-overflow accretion mode. All sources show a temperature gradient in the post-shock regions and a highly absorbed emission from material located in the pre-shock flow which is also responsible for the X-ray pulsations. Reflection at the WD surface is likely the origin of the fluorescent iron line. There is an increasing evidence for the presence of a warm absorber in IPs, a feature that needs future exploration. The addition of two systems to the subgroup of soft X-ray IPs confirms a relatively large (∼ 30%) incidence.

hard X-ray↗

DOE OSTI2018

Investigation of soil properties using different techniques of mid‐infrared spectroscopy

Summary Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRF), attenuated total reflectance spectroscopy (ATR) and Fourier transform infrared photoacoustic spectroscopy (PAS) are useful techniques that are commonly used to characterize soil properties. Here, these techniques were used to evaluate individual properties of 1456 paddy soil samples from Nanjing, China, to explore their features in the mid‐infrared range. The diffuse reflectance spectroscopy showed broad and shouldered peaks that ranged from 4000 to 500 cm −1 . Attenuated total reflectance spectroscopy produced main peaks around 1000 cm −1 . Fourier transform infrared photoacoustic spectroscopy spectra showed several moderate intensity peaks in the regions of 4000–2600 and 2500–500 cm −1 . The effective variables (wavenumbers) were selected using an uninformative variable elimination (UVE) algorithm to predict soil pH, and soil organic matter (SOM), total nitrogen (TN) and available phosphorus (AP) contents; it used a self‐adaptive partial least squares model (SAM–PLS). The results showed that selected wavenumbers improved the accuracy of prediction for pH, and SOM, TN and AP contents. For the prediction of pH, ATR spectra showed marginally better performance than the other spectra. The DRF spectroscopy was the optimal method for SOM and TN prediction. Available phosphorus contents were predicted poorly by all three spectra. Furthermore, mid‐infrared incident light paths, absorption modes, sensing styles, as well as peak interference and the prediction model, were the main factors that affected the assessment of soil properties in the three types of spectroscopy. Highlights Soil spectra data were measured with DRF, ATR and PAS spectrometers over the range 4000–500 cm −1 . A UVE algorithm was used to select effective wavenumbers from the full spectrum. The pH, SOM, TN and AP were estimated using three techniques based on a SAM–PLS model. Mid‐infrared incident light paths and absorption modes affected prediction performance of the three techniques.

Ma, F.↗

DOE OSTI2020

The STRong lensing Insights into the Dark Energy Survey (STRIDES) 2017/2018 follow-up campaign: discovery of 10 lensed quasars and 10 quasar pairs

Here, we report the results of the STRong lensing Insights into the Dark Energy Survey (STRIDES) follow-up campaign of the late 2017/early 2018 season. We obtained spectra of 65 lensed quasar candidates with ESO Faint Object Spectrograph and Camera 2 on the NTT and Echellette Spectrograph and Imager on Keck, confirming 10 new lensed quasars and 10 quasar pairs. Eight lensed quasars are doubly imaged with source redshifts between 0.99 and 2.90, one is triply imaged (DESJ0345-2545, z = 1.68), and one is quadruply imaged (quad: DESJ0053-2012, z = 3.8). Singular isothermal ellipsoid models for the doubles, based on high-resolution imaging from SAMI on Southern Astrophysical Research Telescope or Near InfraRed Camera 2 on Keck, give total magnifications between 3.2 and 5.6, and Einstein radii between 0.49 and 1.97 arcsec. After spectroscopic follow-up, we extract multi-epoch grizY photometry of confirmed lensed quasars and contaminant quasar + star pairs from DES data using parametric multiband modelling, and compare variability in each system’s components. By measuring the reduced χ 2 associated with fitting all epochs to the same magnitude, we find a simple cut on the less variable component that retains all confirmed lensed quasars, while removing 94 per cent of contaminant systems. Based on our spectroscopic follow-up, this variability information improves selection of lensed quasars and quasar pairs from 34-45 per cent to 51–70 per cent, with most remaining contaminants being star-forming galaxies. Using mock lensed quasar light curves we demonstrate that selection based only on variability will over-represent the quad fraction by 10 per cent over a complete DES magnitude-limited sample, explained by the magnification bias and hence lower luminosity/more variable sources in quads.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1993

A seven-year northern sky survey of Ap stars for rapid variability

A high-speed photometric survey of 120 Ap stars in the northern sky, has been conducted, between 1985 and 1991, in order to search for rapid variability. Stars of spectral types, namely from B8 to F4, have been selected for the survey. The selected pulsational variable stars occupy the hotter regions of the instability strip of the Hertzsprung-Russel diagram. Noted is the absence of pulsations in the hotter B8-A3 Ap stars; this does not, however, preclude the existence of pulsations, since HD 218495 was recently discovered to be a rapidly oscillating Ap (roAp) star. The primary result of this study is that various combinations of photometric indices, while pointing towards roAp stars having the characteristic signatures of cool, SrCrEu stars, still fail to isolate the roAp phenomenon from similar nonpulsating Ap stars. Color-magnitude and color-color diagrams are presented in order to complete this survey.

Nelson, Matthew J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Training data selection for event classification in a highly variable environment

A problem of interest for nuclear nonproliferation is monitoring activities at nuclear facilities, where proliferation events may only take place a few times and often under variable conditions. Machine learning has revolutionized data analytics by enabling the use of measurable signatures to generate predictive models of facility operations. However, traditional methods for training these models require large, reliable data sets with labeled observations, a challenge for nonproliferation. Highly variable conditions further complicate this as events from training data may have occurred in conditions quite different from the event of interest. Our hypothesis is that when events occur in a highly variable environment, careful training data selection for each test event could outperform the standard approach of using all available training data. We developed a method to optimize training data selection for the given test event and applied it to predicting the power level of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. In this study, the reactor startup exhibits variability between occurrences due to natural variability in environmental conditions and operational procedures. Using a combination of analysis techniques, a similitude assessment was performed on data collected from HFIR to isolate clusters that were optimal for training a predictive model. Concepts such as dynamic time warping and Jaccard similarity were used in conjunction with clustering analysis. In order to validate this approach, the model was trained on every combination of unique training events and the predictive performance was compared to the performance using a subset of the training data selected by isolated clusters found through the similitude assessment.

Iyer, A↗

NASA NTRS2019

Discerning the Impact of Powder Feedstock Variability on Structure, Property, and Performance of Selective Laser Melted Alloy 718: A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of Feedstock Variability

Extensive mechanical, chemical and microstructural analyses were conducted on additively manufactured Alloy 718 to characterize powders from multiple vendors to determine the effects of variations observed in the powders had on the consolidated material. With over 190 variables examined, it was necessary to reduce the number of variables and identify the variables and classes of variables that had the greatest effect. Principle Component Analysis (PCA) was used to reduce the number of variable to effectively 12 while identifying several classes of variables as most important.

Ellis, David↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identification of Climatological Representative Days in the Mid-Atlantic for High-Fidelity Offshore Wind Energy Modeling

The goal of reaching 30 GW of offshore wind energy by 2030 becomes more realistic with the continued approval of offshore wind energy areas by the Biden Administration. In the Mid-Atlantic, where wind energy projects are in the most advanced stages of development, there is increased research focus on the eventual interaction of these wind farms. These interactions, in the form of wakes and cluster wakes, or wakes from multiple wind farms, could have detrimental effects on power production and forecastability for downwind wind farms (Pryor et al. 2022, Golbazi et al. 2022, Rosencrans et al. 2023). To help alleviate these issues, numerical simulations in the form of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and large eddy simulations (LES) can provide insight into when cluster wake situations may occur, but running such simulations can be expensive and difficult to run for multiple years. In this study, we leverage and build upon existing techniques in the literature (Fischereit et al. 2022) to identify climatologically representative days for wind energy areas in the Mid-Atlantic where conditions would promote cluster wake situations. We select meteorological variables (wind speed, wind direction, atmospheric stability, boundary-layer height, TKE) critical to understanding wind energy production and wake propagation. We then consider two different NWP datasets of varying spatial and temporal resolution: ERA5 provides data at hourly intervals from 1940 to present at 0.25 deg (31 km) spatial resolution (Hersbach et al. 2020), and the NOW-23 dataset provides data at 5-minute resolution for 21 years at 2-km spatial resolution (Bodini et al. 2020). Our first step is to compare these two datasets for an overlapping 21-year time period. Initial results show that the required number of days to represent the long-term climate increases with each additional variable considered. In their study of the German Bight, Fischereit et al. (2022) found that they could represent the long-term wind and wave climate in a "near-perfect" way with -180 days, by reaching a Perkins Skill Score (PSS) of 0.9; our investigation of the mid-Atlantic wind resource region with ERA5 and NOW-23 data suggests that we will need -100 days to reach a PSS of 0.9. As we expand our parameter space to include multiple variables, the number of required days will likely grow. These results will ultimately be used to select case studies to best represent cluster wake conditions that apply to this region for the lifetime of likely wind farms in this mid-Atlantic region.

clusterwakes↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimization of a High Pressure Turbine Blade and Sector-Based Annular Rig Design for Supercritical CO2 Power Cycle Representative Testing

Abstract As part of the ongoing research into the design of hardware for zero emission cycles, a first-stage high-pressure turbine (HPT) blade is optimized for a 300 MWe supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycle using the surrogate-assisted genetic algorithm optimizer in Numeca FINE/Design three-dimensional with objectives of increasing efficiency and decreasing heat load to the blade. Supercritical CO2 property tables are constructed from NIST REFPROP data for the condensable gas simulation in FINE/Turbo. A detailed mesh sensitivity study is performed for a baseline design to identify the proper-grid refinement and efficiently allocate resources for the optimization. Seventy design variables are selected for the initial population generation. Self-organizing maps are then used to focus the design variables on the most important ones affecting the objective functions. The optimization results in approximately 3000 three-dimensional Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes simulations of different blade shapes with increases in efficiency of up to 0.85% and decreases in heat load of 14%. Families of blade shapes are identified for experimental testing in an annular rig at the Purdue Experimental Turbine Aerothermal Laboratory. A design to adapt the annular cascade for testing optimized geometries is introduced, which features eccentric radius sectors allowing for scaled-up geometries of sCO2 optimized blade profiles to be tested at design cycle representative conditions at high Reynolds numbers in dry air. Analysis into the effects of Reynolds number, working fluid, and geometric relations are presented to prove the efficacy of the test method.

Engineering↗

NASA NTRS1971

Reward and uncertainty in exploration programs

A set of variables which are crucial to the economic outcome of petroleum exploration are discussed. These are treated as random variables; the values they assume indicate the number of successes that occur in a drilling program and determine, for a particular discovery, the unit production cost and net economic return if that reservoir is developed. In specifying the joint probability law for those variables, extreme and probably unrealistic assumptions are made. In particular, the different random variables are assumed to be independently distributed. Using postulated probability functions and specified parameters, values are generated for selected random variables, such as reservoir size. From this set of values the economic magnitudes of interest, net return and unit production cost are computed. This constitutes a single trial, and the procedure is repeated many times. The resulting histograms approximate the probability density functions of the variables which describe the economic outcomes of an exploratory drilling program.

Kaufman, G. M.↗

NASA NTRS1980

An investigation of dynamic-analysis methods for variable-geometry structures

Selected space structure configurations were reviewed in order to define dynamic analysis problems associated with variable geometry. The dynamics of a beam being constructed from a flexible base and the relocation of the completed beam by rotating the remote manipulator system about the shoulder joint were selected. Equations of motion were formulated in physical coordinates for both of these problems, and FORTRAN programs were developed to generate solutions by numerically integrating the equations. These solutions served as a standard of comparison to gauge the accuracy of approximate solution techniques that were developed and studied. Good control was achieved in both problems. Unstable control system coupling with the system flexibility did not occur. An approximate method was developed for each problem to enable the analyst to investigate variable geometry effects during a short time span using standard fixed geometry programs such as NASTRAN. The average angle and average length techniques are discussed.

Austin, F.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Efficiency optimization of a thermionic converter array

Intensive study of the outer planets of the solar system requires the use of nuclear power for electric propulsion of spacecraft. Among the power conversion devices being considered for this application are thermionic converters. This paper presents the results of computer modeling of thermionic converters to identify the major design variables and select an optimum size for each of the thermionic converters for the power conversion system under consideration. Among the variables investigated were electrical and thermal losses in electrodes, leads and heat chokes. Those elements which minimized the electrical losses tended to increase thermal losses and system weight. Overall mechanical design and relative positioning of components also had impacts on converter efficiency and the power subsystem weight. Numerical calculations were made using the computer heat transfer code SINDA coupled with electrical loss parameters. The results of the computations are presented in this paper.

Kuo, Y. S.↗

NASA NTRS2015

High Performance EVA Glove Collaboration: Glove Injury Data Mining Effort

Human hands play a significant role during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) missions and Neutral Buoyancy Lab (NBL) training events, as they are needed for translating and performing tasks in the weightless environment. Because of this high frequency usage, hand and arm related injuries are known to occur during EVA and EVA training in the NBL. The primary objectives of this investigation were to: 1) document all known EVA glove related injuries and circumstances of these incidents, 2) determine likely risk factors, and 3) recommend interventions where possible that could be implemented in the current and future glove designs. METHODS: The investigation focused on the discomforts and injuries of U.S. crewmembers who had worn the pressurized Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) spacesuit and experienced 4000 Series or Phase VI glove related incidents during 1981 to 2010 for either EVA ground training or in-orbit flight. We conducted an observational retrospective case-control investigation using 1) a literature review of known injuries, 2) data mining of crew injury, glove sizing, and hand anthropometry databases, 3) descriptive statistical analyses, and finally 4) statistical risk correlation and predictor analyses to better understand injury prevalence and potential causation. Specific predictor statistical analyses included use of principal component analyses (PCA), multiple logistic regression, and survival analyses (Cox proportional hazards regression). Results of these analyses were computed risk variables in the forms of odds ratios (likelihood of an injury occurring given the magnitude of a risk variable) and hazard ratios (likelihood of time to injury occurrence). Due to the exploratory nature of this investigation, we selected predictor variables significant at p≤0.15. RESULTS: Through 2010, there have been a total of 330 NASA crewmembers, from which 96 crewmembers performed 322 EVAs during 1981-2010, resulting in 50 crewmembers being injured inflight and 44 injured during 11,704 ground EVA training events. Of the 196 glove related injury incidents, 106 related to EVA and 90 to EVA training. Over these 196 incidents, 277 total injuries (126 flight; 151 training) were reported and were then grouped into 23 types of injuries. Of EVA flight injuries, 65% were commonly reported to the hand (in general), metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joint, and finger (not including thumb) with fatigue, abrasion, and paresthesia being the most common injury types (44% of total flight injuries). Training injuries totaled to more than 70% being distributed to the fingernail, MCP joint, and finger crotch with 88% of the specific injuries listed as pain, erythema, and onycholysis. Of these training injuries, when reporting pain or erythema, the most common location was the index finger, but when reporting onycholysis, it was the middle finger. Predictor variables specific to increased risk of onycholysis included: female sex (OR=2.622), older age (OR=1.065), increased duration in hours of the flight or training event (OR=1.570), middle finger length differences in inches between the finger and the EVA glove (OR=7.709), and use of the Phase VI glove (OR=8.535). Differentiation between training and flight and injury reporting during 2002-2004 were significant control variables. For likelihood of time to first onycholysis injury, there was a 24% reduction in rate of reporting for each year increase in age. Also, more experienced crewmembers, based on number of EVA flight or training events completed, were less likely to report an onycholysis injury (3% less for every event). Longer duration events also found reporting rates to occur 2.37 times faster for every hour of length. Crewmembers with larger hand size reported onycholysis 23% faster than those with smaller hand size. Finally, for every 1/10th of an inch increase in difference between the middle finger length and the glove, the rate of reporting increased by 60%. DISCUSSION: One key finding was that the Series 4000 glove had a lower injury risk than the Phase VI, which provides a platform for further evaluation. General interventions that reduce hand overexertion and repetitive use exposure through tool development, procedural changes and shorter exposures may be one mitigation path, but due to the way the training event times were reported, we cannot provide a guideline for a specific event duration change. When the finger length was different from the glove length, the risk of injury increased indicating that the use of larger finger take-ups could be contributing to injury and therefore may not be recommended. Prior to this investigation, there was one previous investigation indicating hand anthropometry may be related to onycholysis. We found different hand anthropometry variables indicated by this investigation as compared to the prior, specifically differences in middle finger length compared to glove finger length, which point more towards a sizing issue than a specific anthropometry issue. Additionally, although this investigation has identified sizing as an issue, the force and environmental-related variables of the EVA glove that could also cause injury were not accounted for.

Reid, C. R.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying physical parameterization uncertainties associated with land-atmosphere interactions in the WRF model over Amazon

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to diagnose regional land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling strength in the absence of sufficient observations but subjected to uncertainties associated with model physical parameterizations. In this study, we propose a framework to quantify and reduce model physical parameterization uncertainties associated with surface fluxes and L-A coupling. An ensemble of WRF simulations with different physical schemes is used to simulate surface fluxes and land-atmosphere coupling strength over the Amazon region. The physical parameterizations investigated include cloud microphysics (MP), land surface processes (LSM), planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface layer (SL), and cumulus (CU). We perform 120 ensemble simulations using the WRF model and different combinations of six MPs, three LSMs, six PBLs and SLs and three CUs. The measurements from the GoAMAZON field campaign and satellite data are used to evaluate model performance. A Multi-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is applied to quantify the relative importance of different physics processes on L-A coupling. The Tukey’s test is used to sort schemes that have no significant differences into one group. The suite of physics that result in the best simulations of the corresponding variables are selected based on the Taylor skill score. Results show that the relative importance of processes and their interaction vary with the variables of interest. For example, CU was the most important process in modulating soil moisture, 2 m-humidity, latent heat, and net radiation. LSM showed dominant effects on 2 m-temperature and also has the largest impact on sensible heat and the lifting condensation level. The best physical parameterization ensembles show much narrower ranges of the variables of interest than the priori ensemble. Results of this study show the roles of different physical processes in modulating L-A interactions, quantify model uncertainties from physical processes, and provide insights for improving the model physics parameterizations.

Wang, Chen↗

NASA NTRS1978

Anthropometry

Data on body-size measurement are presented to aid in spacecraft design. Tabulated dimensional anthropometric data on 59 variables for 12 selected populations are given. The variables chosen were those judged most relevant to the manned space program. A glossary of anatomical and anthropometric terms is included. Selected body dimensions of males and females from the potential astronaut population projected to the 1980-1990 time frame are given. Illustrations of drawing-board manikins based on those anticipated body sizes are included.

Mcconville, J. T.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Determinants of project success

The interactions of numerous project characteristics, with particular reference to project performance, were studied. Determinants of success are identified along with the accompanying implications for client organization, parent organization, project organization, and future research. Variables are selected which are found to have the greatest impact on project outcome, and the methodology and analytic techniques to be employed in identification of those variables are discussed.

Murphy, D. C.↗