SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “variable importance”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Convergence Criteria for Multiphysics Simulations

The behavior of engineered systems is often influenced by multiple physical phenomena, such as mechanical deformation, heat transfer, and chemical species transport and reactions. There are often strong interactions between these phenomena, and there is increasing interest in applying coupled-physics models to improve understanding of physical behavior under complex environmental conditions. Multiple simulation frameworks that facilitate coupled-physics simulations are in widespread use, and these employ a variety of techniques to account for interactions between those physics. Many frameworks solve the physics models independently and transfer results between them. Alternatively, a single monolithic system of equations for every physics model can be formed and solved. Each of these approaches has its benefits and drawbacks, and the optimal approach varies depending on the nature of the problem. The open-source MOOSE framework was developed targeting solution of large-scale multiphysics problems. Although it provides options for all these coupling approaches, its standard approach for multiphysics solutions is to form and solve a single monolithic system of equations containing the unknowns for all physics models. MOOSE provides a streamlined approach for users to define the solution variables, the terms in the partial differential equations pertaining to each variable, and interactions between solution variables. One aspect of the monolithic solution approach that can be problematic, however, is defining appropriate convergence criteria for the nonlinear system. A standard approach is to determine convergence is to simply take a norm of the residual vector corresponding to the full vector of unknowns. However, if the residual vector contains variables for multiple physics models, the magnitudes of those variables can differ significantly, and the variables can converge at significantly different rates from each other. It is important to ensure that the variables for each of the physics are converged, and also ensure that the convergence criteria are not excessively stringent in cases when there is little change in the solution. This talk presents representative multiphysics problems to highlight these issues, and shows strategies for convergence criteria in MOOSE that are robust for multiphysics models under a variety of conditions.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Drivers of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability using a Stochastic Model Hierarchy

The relative importance of ocean and atmospheric dynamics in generating Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) remains an open question. Comparisons between climate models with SLAB and fully-dynamic (FULL) ocean components are often used to explore this question, but cannot reveal how individual ocean processes generate these differences. We build a hierarchy of physically interpretable stochastic models to investigate the contribution of two upper-ocean processes to AMV: the role of seasonal variation and mixed-layer entrainment. This interpretability arises from the stochastic model’s simplified representation of sea surface temperature (SST), considering only the local upper ocean response to white-noise atmospheric forcing and its impact on surface heat exchange. We focus on understanding differences between SLAB and FULL non-eddy resolving pre-industrial control simulations of the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM), and estimate the stochastic model parameters from each respective simulation. Despite its simplicity, the stochastic model reproduces temporal characteristics of SST variability in the SPG, including reemergence, seasonal-to-interannual persistence and power spectra. Furthermore, unrealistically persistent SST of the CESM-SLAB ocean simulation is reproduced in the equivalent stochastic model configuration where the mixed-layer depth (MLD) is constant. The stochastic model also reveals that vertical entrainment primarily damps SST variability, thus explaining why SLAB exhibits larger SST variance than FULL. Here, the stochastic model driven by temporally stochastic, spatially coherent forcing patterns reproduces the canonical AMV pattern. However, the amplitude of low-frequency variability remains underestimated, suggesting a role for ocean dynamics beyond entrainment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using feature importance as an exploratory data analysis tool on Earth system models

Abstract. Machine learning (ML) models are commonly used to generate predictions, but these models can also support the discovery of new science. Generating accurate predictions necessitates that a model captures the structure of the underlying data. If the structure is properly extracted, ML could be a useful exploratory and evidential tool. In this paper, we present a case study that demonstrates the use of ML for exploratory data analysis (EDA) in the climate space. We apply the ML explainability method of spatiotemporal zeroed feature importance (stZFI) to understand how climate-variable associations evolve over space and time. Our analyses focus on data from ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs) which provide data on different climate states and conditions. We elect to work with ESM ensembles since they allow us to compare feature importance across alternative scenarios not available with observed data. The ensembles also account for natural variability so that we can distinguish between signal and noise due to natural climate variability when computing feature importance. The use of perturbed initial condition ensembles introduces variability mimicking the natural variability in the atmosphere; thus the signals emerging using feature importance (FI) can be evaluated against the natural variability in the climate system. For our analyses, we consider the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which was a large stratospheric aerosol injection. We explore the climate pathway associated with the eruption from aerosols to radiation to temperature at both the near-surface and stratospheric levels. In addition to applying the method to data generated from two different ESMs, we apply stZFI to reanalysis data to compare the associations identified by stZFI. We show how stZFI tracks the importance of aerosol optical depth over time on forecasting temperatures. This case study illustrates usefulness of an ML tool (stZFI) for EDA on a well-studied climate exemplar.

Ries, Daniel (ORCID:0000000250294647)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Separate the Role of Southern and Northern Extra‐Tropical Pacific in Tropical Pacific Climate Variability

Abstract Observational and modeling studies have elucidated the influential role played by the southern and northern extratropical Pacific (SEP and NEP) forcing in shaping dynamics of tropical Pacific climate variability. However, the relative importance of the NEP and SEP and the timescale on which they impact the tropics remain unclear. Using a linear inverse model (LIM) that selectively incorporates or excludes tropical‐extratropical coupling, we find a reduction in tropical interannual variability (∼40%) and low‐frequency (sub‐decadal to decadal) variability in the southeastern tropical Pacific region (∼70%) in the absence of SEP. Conversely, the absence of NEP yields no significant impact on tropical interannual variability but markedly diminishes low‐frequency variability in the central tropical Pacific region (∼70%). LIM and statistic diagnostics on CMIP6 models show the low‐frequency to total variability ratio in the tropical Pacific depending on their NEP and SEP representation. Models with more (less) low‐frequency power tend to show stronger NEP (SEP) dynamics.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2020

Time of Emergence and Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemical Trends

Anthropogenically forced changes in ocean biogeochemistry are underway and critical for the ocean carbon sink and marine habitat. Detecting such changes in ocean biogeochemistry will require quantification of the magnitude of the change (anthropogenic signal) and the natural variability inherent to the climate system (noise). Here we use Large Ensemble (LE) experiments from four Earth system models (ESMs) with multiple emissions scenarios to estimate Time of Emergence (ToE) and partition projection uncertainty for anthropogenic signals in five biogeochemically important upper-ocean variables. We find ToEs are robust across ESMs for sea surface temperature and the invasion of anthropogenic carbon; emergence time scales are 20–30 yr. For the biological carbon pump, and sea surface chlorophyll and salinity, emergence time scales are longer (50+ yr), less robust across the ESMs, and more sensitive to the forcing scenario considered. We find internal variability uncertainty, and model differences in the internal variability uncertainty, can be consequential sources of uncertainty for projecting regional changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the coming decades. In combining structural, scenario, and internal variability uncertainty, this study represents the most comprehensive characterization of biogeochemical emergence time scales and uncertainty to date. Our findings delineate critical spatial and duration requirements for marine observing systems to robustly detect anthropogenic change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Discoveries in Blast-Driven Turbulence of Astrophysical Relevance

The fluid mixing caused by variable-density instabilities is important in a wide variety of scenarios from ocean mixing and astrophysical phenomena to nuclear fusion techniques and atomic weapons. This thesis explores the mixing resulting from a specific instability known as the Blast Driven Instability (BDI). This work investigates the variable density mixing in an explosively driven environment due to the fluid instabilities at the material interfaces. Specifically, diverging Richtmyer-Meshkov (impulsive-acceleration environment) and Rayleigh-Taylor (variable-acceleration environment) instabilities (present in supernova and inertial confinement fusion) are studied using advanced high-speed diagnostics in carefully designed laboratory experiments. The BDI morphology is presented through a time development of Mie scattering images, and steps through the parameter space (varying density ratio and driver speed), highlighting the development of the structures that form during mixing. A scaling criterion is used to relate the two systems of vastly different spatiotemporal scales. Velocity fields in the BDI have been captured for the first time using the high temporal resolution PIV technique. Subsequent analysis of the dynamics of the instability from the velocity fields illustrates the distribution of kinetic energy, the transition to turbulence, and the characteristic growth of the instability are discussed. This study furthers understanding of how blast-driven instability pertains to supernova and inertial confinement fusion science. The morphology of the BDI has been characterized for the first time. This work steps through the parameter space covered in Mie scattering experiments, and how the different parameters contribute to development of structures and mixing. It also examines a scaling of the Atwood number for expanding predictive capabilities to other experimental conditions and simulations. The first collection of velocity fields acquired for the BDI are recorded, and subsequent analysis evaluating the distribution of kinetic energy throughout space and time for two density ratios from the overall parameter space, as well as the transition to turbulence, estimated from a Reynolds number calculated based on momentum mixing are all presented. This information is useful in advancing the development of models to predict physics of high energy density applications where experiments are not always readily available. This research has successfully demonstrated understanding for the time criteria defining regimes where the shock driven (Richtmyer-Meshkov instability) and the buoyancy driven (Rayleigh-Taylor instability) dominates through a parametric study of density variation (Atwood number) and driver speed (Mach number). All this furthers understanding of how the BDI pertains to SN and ICF.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Automatic Search of Cataclysmic Variables Based on LightGBM in LAMOST-DR7

The search for special and rare celestial objects has always played an important role in astronomy. Cataclysmic Variables (CVs) are special and rare binary systems with accretion disks. Most CVs are in the quiescent period, and their spectra have the emission lines of Balmer series, HeI, and HeII. A few CVs in the outburst period have the absorption lines of Balmer series. Owing to the scarcity of numbers, expanding the spectral data of CVs is of positive significance for studying the formation of accretion disks and the evolution of binary star system models. At present, the research for astronomical spectra has entered the era of Big Data. The Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopy Telescope (LAMOST) has produced more than tens of millions of spectral data. the latest released LAMOST-DR7 includes 10.6 million low-resolution spectral data in 4926 sky regions, providing ideal data support for searching CV candidates. To process and analyze the massive amounts of spectral data, this study employed the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) algorithm, which is based on the ensemble tree model to automatically conduct the search in LAMOST-DR7. Finally, 225 CV candidates were found and four new CV candidates were verified by SIMBAD and published catalogs. This study also built the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models and used Accuracy, Precision, Recall, the F1-score, and the ROC curve to compare the four models comprehensively. Experimental results showed that LightGBM is more efficient. The search for CVs based on LightGBM not only enriches the existing CV spectral library, but also provides a reference for the data mining of other rare celestial objects in massive spectral data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Disentangling the Relative Drivers of Seasonal Evapotranspiration Across a Continental-Scale Aridity Gradient

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a significant ecosystem flux, governing the partitioning of energy at the land surface. Understanding the seasonal pattern and magnitude of ET is critical for anticipating a range of ecosystem impacts, including drought, heat-wave events, and plant mortality. Here, in this study, we identified the relative controls of seasonal variability in ET, and how these controls vary among ecosystems. We used overlapping AmeriFlux and PhenoCam time series at a daily timestep from 20 sites to explore these linkages (# site-years >100), and our study area covered a broad climatological aridity gradient in the U.S. and Canada. We focused on disentangling the most important controls of bulk surface conductance (G s ) and evaporative fraction (EF = LE/[H + LE]), where LE and H represent latent and sensible heat fluxes, respectively. Specifically, we investigated how vegetation phenology varied in importance relative to meteorological variables (vapor pressure deficit and antecedent precipitation) as a driver of G s and EF using path analysis, a framework for quantifying and comparing the causal linkages among multiple response and explanatory variables. Our results revealed that the drivers of G s and EF seasonality varied significantly between energy- and water-limited ecosystems. Specifically, precipitation had a much higher effect in water-limited ecosystems, while seasonal patterns in canopy greenness emerged as a stronger control in energy-limited ecosystems. Given that phenology is expected to shift under future climate, our findings provide key information for understanding and predicting how phenology may impact 21st-century hydroclimate regimes and the surface-energy balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Synergistic interactions between anammox and dissimilatory nitrate reducing bacteria sustains reactor performance across variable nitrogen loading ratios

Anaerobic ammonium oxidizing (anammox) bacteria are utilized for high efficiency nitrogen removal from nitrogen-laden sidestreams in wastewater treatment plants. The anammox bacteria form a variety of competitive and mutualistic interactions with heterotrophic bacteria that often employ denitrification or dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) for energy generation. These interactions can be heavily influenced by the influent ratio of ammonium to nitrite, NH 4 + :NO 2 - , where deviations from the widely acknowledged stoichiometric ratio (1:1.32) have been demonstrated to have deleterious effects on anammox efficiency. Thus, it is important to understand how variable NH 4 + :NO 2 - ratios impact the microbial ecology of anammox reactors. We observed the response of the microbial community in a lab scale anammox membrane bioreactor (MBR) to changes in the influent NH 4 + :NO 2 - ratio using both 16S rRNA gene and shotgun metagenomic sequencing. Ammonium removal efficiency decreased from 99.77 ± 0.04% when the ratio was 1:1.32 (prior to day 89) to 90.85 ± 0.29% when the ratio was decreased to 1:1.1 (day 89–202) and 90.14 ± 0.09% when the ratio was changed to 1:1.13 (day 169–200). Over this same timespan, the overall nitrogen removal efficiency (NRE) remained relatively unchanged (85.26 ± 0.01% from day 0–89, compared to 85.49 ± 0.01% from day 89–169, and 83.04 ± 0.01% from day 169–200). When the ratio was slightly increased to 1:1.17–1:1.2 (day 202–253), the ammonium removal efficiency increased to 97.28 ± 0.45% and the NRE increased to 88.21 ± 0.01%. Analysis of 16S rRNA gene sequences demonstrated increased relative abundance of taxa belonging to Bacteroidetes, Chloroflexi, and Ignavibacteriae over the course of the experiment. The relative abundance of Planctomycetes, the phylum to which anammox bacteria belong, decreased from 77.19% at the beginning of the experiment to 12.24% by the end of the experiment. Analysis of metagenome assembled genomes (MAGs) indicated increased abundance of bacteria with nrfAH genes used for DNRA after the introduction of lower influent NH 4 + :NO 2 - ratios. The high relative abundance of DNRA bacteria coinciding with sustained bioreactor performance indicates a mutualistic relationship between the anammox and DNRA bacteria. Understanding these interactions could support more robust bioreactor operation at variable nitrogen loading ratios.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evolutionary Variation in MADS Box Dimerization Affects Floral Development and Protein Abundance in Maize

Interactions between MADS-box transcription factors are critical in the regulation of floral development, and shifting MADS-box protein-protein interactions are predicted to have influenced floral evolution. However, precisely how evolutionary variation in protein-protein interactions affects MADS-box protein function remains unknown. To assess the impact of changing MADS-box protein-protein interactions on transcription factor function, we turned to the grasses, where interactions between B-class MADS-box proteins vary. We tested the functional consequences of this evolutionary variability using maize as an experimental system. We found that differential B-class dimerization was associated with subtle, quantitative differences in stamen shape. In contrast, differential dimerization resulted in large-scale changes to downstream gene expression. Differential dimerization also affected B-class complex composition and abundance, independent of transcript levels. This indicates that differential B-class dimerization affects protein degradation, revealing an important consequence for evolutionary variability in MADS-box interactions. Our results highlight complexity in the evolution of developmental gene networks - changing protein-protein interactions could affect not only the composition of transcription factor complexes, but also their degradation and persistence in developing flowers. Here, our results also show how coding change in a pleiotropic master regulator could have small, quantitative effects on development.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimization of direct air capture processes using reactive transport models of adsorption-desorption cycles

In this study, we develop and implement a reactive transport model in COMSOL Multiphysics® to address the challenges of direct air carbon capture. The model is validated against experimental data and used to simulate the cyclic steady state of the adsorption-desorption process. The optimization of this model is achieved through advanced trust-region methods integrated with Gaussian Processes. Key decision variables, including adsorption and desorption times, desorption temperature and pressure, input velocity, bed porosity, column length, and radius were optimized to minimize the capture cost. After optimization, a sensitivity analysis revealed the complex interplay between the decision variables and their effect on the specific energy and cost of removing the CO 2 . We optimized the capture cost while taking into account the trade-off between energy consumption and productivity. The resulting minimum capture cost was determined to be 265.2 $/t-CO 2 , which aligns with expected values reported in the literature. Numerical results suggest the effectiveness of the optimization strategies applied, and underscore the importance of simultaneous decision variable selection in improving the performance in direct air capture processes. We also extend the modeling approach to a 2D axisymmetric model to better visualize CO₂ uptake and temperature profiles, revealing significant radial gradients during the regeneration step. As a main drawback, this enhanced model comes with a computational cost approximately 40 times higher than that of the 1D model.

Adsorption-desorption process↗

DOE OSTI2020

Imprecise global sensitivity analysis using bayesian multimodel inference and importance sampling

Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) aims to understand the relative importance of uncertain input variables to model response. Conventional GSA involves calculating sensitivity (Sobol’) indices for a model with known model parameter distributions. However, model parameters are affected by aleatory and epistemic uncertainty, with the latter often caused by lack of data. In this paper, we propose a new framework to quantify uncertainty in probability model-form and model parameters resulting from small datasets and integrate these uncertainties into Sobol’ index estimates. First, the process establishes, through Bayesian multimodel inference, a set of candidate probability models and their associated probabilities. Imprecise Sobol’ indices are calculated from these probability models using an importance sampling reweighting approach. This results in probabilistic Sobol’ indices, whose distribution characterizes uncertainty in the sensitivity resulting from small dataset size. The imprecise Sobol’ indices thus provide a measure of confidence in the sensitivity estimate and, moreover, can be used to inform data collection efforts targeted to minimize the impact of uncertainties. Through an example studying the parameters of a Timoshenko beam, we show that these probabilistic Sobol’ indices converge to the true/deterministic Sobol’ indices as the dataset size increases and hence, distribution-form uncertainty reduces. The approach is then applied to assess the sensitivity of the out-of-plane properties of an E-glass fiber composite material to its constituent properties. This second example illustrates the approach for an important class of materials with wide-ranging applications when data may be lacking for some input parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying spatiotemporal variability in occupant exposure to an indoor airborne contaminant with an uncertain source location

Well-mixed zone models are often employed to compute indoor air quality and occupant exposures. While effective, a potential downside to assuming instantaneous, perfect mixing is underpredicting exposures to high intermittent concentrations within a room. When such cases are of concern, more spatially resolved models, like computational-fluid dynamics methods, are used for some or all of the zones. But, these models have higher computational costs and require more input information. A preferred compromise would be to continue with a multi-zone modeling approach for all rooms, but with a better assessment of the spatial variability within a room. Here to do so, we present a quantitative method for estimating a room's spatiotemporal variability, based on influential room parameters. Our proposed method disaggregates variability into the variability in a room's average concentration, and the spatial variability within the room relative to that average. This enables a detailed assessment of how variability in particular room parameters impacts the uncertain occupant exposures. To demonstrate the utility of this method, we simulate contaminant dispersion for a variety of possible source locations. We compute breathing-zone exposure during the releasing (source is active) and decaying (source is removed) periods. Using CFD methods, we found after a 30 minutes release the average standard deviation in the spatial distribution of exposure was approximately 28% of the source average exposure, whereas variability in the different average exposures was lower, only 10% of the total average. We also find that although uncertainty in the source location leads to variability in the average magnitude of transient exposure, it does not have a particularly large influence on the spatial distribution during the decaying period, or on the average contaminant removal rate. By systematically characterizing a room's average concentration, its variability, and the spatial variability within the room important insights can be gained as to how much uncertainty is introduced into occupant exposure predictions by assuming a uniform in-room contaminant concentration. We discuss how the results of these characterizations can improve our understanding of the uncertainty in occupant exposures relative to well-mixed models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of a dynamic grid mix and climate on operational carbon emissions modeling for different building typologies and climate zones

Calculating operational carbon emissions through a building’s lifecycle is complex due to the dynamic nature of influencing factors such as climate and energy grid mix. This paper introduces a novel methodology for modeling 30-year operational carbon impacts of buildings and applies this method to mid-rise office and residential typologies across various US climate zones. The method accounts for these temporal variabilities using new and scarcely cited data sources. Key findings indicate that future changes in the climate, while impactful, play a relatively modest role in operational carbon emissions compared to significant reductions with modeling scenarios using the projected decarbonization of the electricity grid. Here, the study also finds that using annual, month-hourly, or hourly grid emission factors have a minimal impact on carbon accounting, except in certain climates and program types where emission patterns do not align with a building’s energy consumption. Warmer climates like Miami, Florida and Tucson, Arizona, which rely heavily on cooling, demonstrate larger variations in carbon emissions when using higher temporal resolution emission factors. Ultimately, this study underscores the critical role of grid decarbonization in reducing long-term emissions and the importance of incorporating this variable in life cycle assessment (LCA) modeling.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Subdecadal Holocene Warm-Season Temperature Variability in Central Europe Recorded by Biochemical Varves

Paleoclimate data provide important information about the character of natural climate variability. However, records with sufficient length and resolution to resolve high-frequency (decadal-scale) variability across the Holocene are scarce. We present a 10,800-year reconstruction of spring and summer temperature at three-year resolution based on biochemical varves from Lake $\dot{Z}abi$$\acute{n}skie$, Poland. The reconstruction is based on Ca/Ti ratio, which are significantly correlated with instrumental spring and summer temperature spanning 240 years. Major climate events of the Holocene period are represented in the reconstruction, including the Holocene Thermal Maximum, 8.2 ka Event, Medieval Climate Anomaly, and Little Ice Age. A low-frequency 8,000-year decreasing trend in warm-season temperatures is driven by declining summer insolation. Temperature variability is highest during the early Holocene, likely related to warmer and drier conditions. The rate of warming during the past 90 years is extremely unusual, if not unprecedented for the Holocene, based on our reconstruction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Freundlich isotherm equation best represents phosphate sorption across soil orders and land use types in tropical soils of Puerto Rico

Biomass production in the lowland wet tropical forest is greater than in any other biome, and it is typically limited by soil phosphorus (P) availability. However, the mechanisms involved in the P cycle remain poorly represented in Earth System Models (ESMs). Soil P sorption processes are key in the P cycle and for understanding the extent of P limitation for plant productivity. Currently, a few ESMs include isotherm equations to model these processes. Although the Langmuir equation is widely cited, other isotherm equations may better describe sorption in tropical soils. Here, we use a diverse range of soil samples from Puerto Rico to test the validity of the Langmuir, Freundlich, and Temkin equation. We found that across four soil orders (Inceptisols, Mollisols, Oxisols, Ultisols), and forested and cultivated land use types, the Freundlich equation best represented soil P sorption. Furthermore, the Langmuir and the Temkin equations poorly represent soil P adsorption, especially at low P concentrations. Specifically, the Langmuir equation underestimated soil P adsorption by 40% and the Temkin equation overestimated adsorption by 76%. We also found, as expected, that soil clay content and pH were the most important parameters explaining the variability of the Freundlich (K f ) constant. Greater clay content and lower pH, common in highly weathered Ultisols and Oxisols which are abundant in the tropics, led to greater K f values. Overall, our results suggest that a diversity of soils can prompt underestimation of P sorption when using the Langmuir isotherm, which leads to an overestimation of available P that can have repercussions on ESM predictions of the P cycle and tropical forest productivity.

Earth system models↗

DOE OSTI2021

Concrete shrinkage and creep under drying/wetting cycles

Concrete shrinkage and creep under variable hydric conditions are important factors for the safety and durability of concrete especially in nuclear reactor or nuclear waste storage background. A large (and long – more than 900 days) experimental campaign, conducted on two different concretes, has therefore been designed to study the strains of non loaded and loaded concretes submitted to drying and liquid water imbibition cycles. For the purposes of comparison, concrete strains and mass variations during drying only (50% RH) and/or following cycles of drying/rewetting were also recorded. This allowed the identification of desiccation shrinkage, basic creep and drying creep at 10 MPa of axial stress. Important results were found and have shown that the final mass and strain are not deeply modified by the introduction of a rewetting phase either for a loaded or a non loaded material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic energy system modeling using hybrid physics-based and machine learning encoder–decoder models

Three model configurations are presented for multi-step time series predictions of the heat absorbed by the water and steam in a thermal power plant. The models predict over horizons of 2, 4, and 6 steps into the future, where each step is a 5-minute increment. The evaluated models are a pure machine learning model, a novel hybrid machine learning and physics-based model, and the hybrid model with an incomplete dataset. The hybrid model deconstructs the machine learning into individual boiler heat absorption units: economizer, water wall, superheater, and reheater. Each configuration uses a gated recurrent unit (GRU) or a GRU-based encoder–decoder as the deep learning architecture. Mean squared error is used to evaluate the models compared to target values. The encoder–decoder architecture is over 11% more accurate than the GRU only models. The hybrid model with the incomplete dataset highlights the importance of the manipulated variables to the system. The hybrid model, compared to the pure machine learning model, is over 10% more accurate on average over 20 iterations of each model. Automatic differentiation is applied to the hybrid model to perform a local sensitivity analysis to identify the most impactful of the 72 manipulated variables on the heat absorbed in the boiler. The models and sensitivity analyses are used in a discussion about optimizing the thermal power plant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗