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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Direct sensitivity analysis on the parameterization of crystal plasticity models

Various methods for calibrating crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) models lead to non-unique input parameter values, which subsequently introduce uncertainty in the predicted mechanical response. Sensitivity analysis (SA) conducted on crystal plasticity models is used to identify how variability in these parameters contribute to output uncertainty. Traditional SA on CPFE parameters uses simplified surrogate models to save computational time. However, the accuracy of the surrogate models depends on the quantity of training data used, and any modeling error can propagate into the SA results, potentially affecting their reliability. In this work, the elementary effects test (EET) method, a global SA technique using direct CPFE simulations was employed, and the results obtained were compared with the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method. ExaConstit, an open-source GPU-enabled CPFE code, was used to perform the simulations and direct SA. The EET method was accurately able to capture the non-linear effects of all the input parameters on the output and is a valuable approach for reliably attributing parameter sensitivities in CPFE models. Based on the results, efficient strategies to perform future parameter calibration and SA are discussed. Additionally, the SA trends observed in different single crystal orientations closely mirrored the activity of the slip systems.

Elementary Effects Test↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Fe-βGa 2 O 3 for Photoconductive Semiconductor Switching

We present iron-doped beta gallium oxide (Fe- β Ga2O3) as a candidate for photoconductive semiconductor switches (PCSSs) with sub-bandgap light. From a commercially available Fe- β Ga2O3 wafer, we first did material characterization. This included measurements of absorption coefficient and dopant composition, carrier activation energy up to 200 °C, break down field of planar electrodes (limited from material passivation), and free carrier recombination lifetime, and thermal effects up to 203 °C on photocurrent with a 447 nm light emitting diode (LED) source. Here, we then demonstrated pulsed operation of a Fe- β Ga2O3 PCSS under different sub-bandgap wavelengths (355, 532, and 1064 nm) and sub-ns pulses. Fe- β Ga2O3 is a candidate for high temperature PCSS with 355 nm responsivity of 7×10 -7 A-cm/W-kV at room temperature and up to 5.5×10 -4 A-cm/W-kV at 200 °C. From these investigations, we discuss a simple trap model to describe the illumination process of the PCSS. Fe- β Ga2O3 has a high breakdown field and has moderate responsivity characteristics, but the dark current at high temperature leads to low photo-to-dark current ratio (PDCR). Regardless, we verify its potential as a PCSS material for harsh environment applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Synergistic Effect of High Sulfur Loading Layered Cathode, Ceramic Separator and Gel Electrolyte

Lithium sulfur (Li-S) batteries are promising candidates for next-generation energy storage devices as they are capable of providing higher energy density and lower cost in comparison to the state of the art Li-ion batteries. To gain these characteristics, there are challenges such as polysulfide crossover, large volume changes during cycling, and deposition of insulating lithium sulfide that need to be alleviated. A popular approach to address these issues is to control the structure and properties of the carbon cathode in order to influence the transport of polysulfides, surface area for reaction, and lithium sulfide deposition. Ceramic separators on the other hand can drastically affect ion diffusion and overall battery performance. Safety concerns regarding the flammable liquid electrolyte can be reduced by deploying gel electrolyte. Towards this direction, we developed a layer-on-layer cathode structure with sulfur-impregnated activated carbon alternating with graphene layer, which was fabricated by Air-assisted electrospray. A much higher sulfur loading compared to slurry cast cathodes can be provided in this method. Combining the new cathode with gel electrolyte can offer higher safety of the battery and capacity retention. Ceramic separator would compensate the reduced ion conductivity of the gel electrolyte and the combination of these variables will be very promising in improvement of battery performance and safety.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Status of Research Activities on LVDTs: Modeling and Simulation Development and Performance Characterization of Commercial LVDTs

FY-22 research focused on two major areas. The first area was modeling and simulation with linked testing that will advance the Linear Variable Differential Transformers (LVDT) technology for use by stakeholders requiring LVDTs in upcoming irradiation tests. The second area focused on testing LVDTs purchased from U.S. suppliers that were investigated in FY-21. These cross-cutting development activities will ensure stakeholders have the current state-of-the-art LVDT-based technologies for deployment in future irradiation tests. Two stand-alone reports are included in the appendixes. The purpose of this report is to provide a convenient body of work to access the reports and to evaluate the data and conclusions provided. Appendix A, “Testing of the RDP Translation Transducer,” contains a complete evaluation of an RDP Electrosense linear transducer that has the capability of replicating the form, fit, and function of LVDTs currently being used at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Appendix B is an extract from the report, “Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation Program at Boise State University (BSU), August 2022, Linear Variable Differential Transformers.” This report contains modeling and testing results conducted at BSU and INL.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance and Cost Potential for Direct-Fired Supercritical CO2 Natural Gas Power Plants

Direct-fired supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycles are being explored as an attractive alternative to natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Therefore, understanding their performance and cost potential is important for the commercialization of the technology. This study presents the techno-economic optimization results of natural gas-fired, utility-scale power plants based on the direct sCO2 power cycle, which are lacking in public literature. To identify the optimum plant configuration, the study considered multiple cases with varying levels of thermal integration with the plant air separation unit (ASU). Several design variables for each power cycle configuration were identified and optimized to minimize the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for each case. The optimization design variables include the sCO2 cooler outlet temperatures, recuperator approach temperatures, and pressure drops. High fidelity models for recuperators, coolers, and turbines were developed and used to capture the impact of design variables on plant efficiency and capital costs. The optimization was conducted using a combination of manual sensitivity analyses and automated derivative-free optimization algorithms available under NETL’s Framework for Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty and Sensitivity platform. The optimized direct sCO2 power plants offered similar or slightly higher plant efficiencies than the reference NGCC plants based on the F-class gas turbine with CCS. The LCOE of the optimized direct sCO2 plants is 13 to 17% higher than the reference NGCC plants with CCS due to high capital costs associated with the ASU and sCO2 power block, though there is significant room for improvement due to the high uncertainty in component capital costs for these new plants. Recuperators make up over 50% of the sCO2 power block costs. Consequently, any research and development efforts to reduce the recuperator capital costs will benefit the technology’s commercialization. The study also presents preliminary results showing the impact of co-firing landfill gas and natural gas on plant efficiency, LCOE, and CO2 emissions.

Pidaparti, Sandeep↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance and Cost Potential for Direct-Fired Supercritical CO2 Natural Gas Power Plants

Direct-fired supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycles are being explored as an attractive alternative to natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Therefore, understanding their performance and cost potential is important for the commercialization of the technology. This study presents the techno-economic optimization results of natural gas-fired, utility-scale power plants based on the direct sCO2 power cycle, which are lacking in public literature. To identify the optimum plant configuration, the study considered multiple cases with varying levels of thermal integration with the plant air separation unit (ASU). Several design variables for each power cycle configuration were identified and optimized to minimize the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for each case. The optimization design variables include the sCO2 cooler outlet temperatures, recuperator approach temperatures, and pressure drops. High fidelity models for recuperators, coolers, and turbines were developed and used to capture the impact of design variables on plant efficiency and capital costs. The optimization was conducted using a combination of manual sensitivity analyses and automated derivative-free optimization algorithms available under NETL’s Framework for Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty and Sensitivity platform. The optimized direct sCO2 power plants offered similar or slightly higher plant efficiencies than the reference NGCC plants based on the F-class gas turbine with CCS. The LCOE of the optimized direct sCO2 plants is 13 to 17% higher than the reference NGCC plants with CCS due to high capital costs associated with the ASU and sCO2 power block, though there is significant room for improvement due to the high uncertainty in component capital costs for these new plants. Recuperators make up over 50% of the sCO2 power block costs. Consequently, any research and development efforts to reduce the recuperator capital costs will benefit the technology’s commercialization. The study also presents preliminary results showing the impact of co-firing landfill gas and natural gas on plant efficiency, LCOE, and CO2 emissions.

Pidaparti, Sandeep↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing the origin of the two-component structure of broad-line region by reverberation mapping of an extremely variable quasar

ABSTRACT The physical origins of quasar components, such as the broad-line region (BLR) and dust torus, remain under debate. To gain insights into them, we focused on changing-state quasars (CSQs) which provide a unique perspective through structural changes associated with accretion disc state transitions. We targeted SDSS J125809.31+351943.0, an extremely variable CSQ, to study its central core structure and kinematics. We conducted reverberation mapping with optical spectroscopy to explore the structure of the BLR and estimate the black hole mass. The results from Hβ reverberation mapping indicated a black hole mass of $10^{9.64^{+0.11}_{-0.20}}\rm {M_\odot }$. Additionally, we analysed variations in the optical to X-ray spectral indices, αox, before and after the state transition, to investigate the accretion disc. These variations in αox and the Eddington ratio (from 0.4 per cent to 2.4 per cent) exhibitied behaviour similar to state transitions observed in X-ray binary systems. Spectral analysis of Hβ revealed a predominantly double-peaked profile during dim periods, transitioning to include a single-peaked component as the quasar brightened, suggesting that Hβ contains a mixture of two components. Each of these components has its distinct characteristics: the first is a double-peaked profile that remains stable despite changes in the accretion rate, while the second is a variable single-peaked profile. Using time-lags from reverberation mapping, we estimated the spatial relationships between these BLR components, the accretion disc, and the dust torus. Our results suggest that the BLR consists of two distinct components, each differing in location and origin.

Nagoshi, Shumpei (ORCID:0000000326504322)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of the pseudo-global warming method under flood conditions: a case study from the northeastern US

Abstract. Intensified extreme precipitation and corresponding floods are the most relevant consequences of climate change over the northeastern US (NEUS). To evaluate the impacts of climate change or certain climate perturbations on future extreme weather events which are dynamically similar to historic analogs, the pseudo-global warming (PGW) method has been frequently employed; however, this method lacks precise definition and guidelines, thus limiting its application. More specifically, three key questions related to the application of the PGW method remain unanswered: at what spatial scale should climate perturbations be applied? Among the different meteorological variables available, which ones should be perturbed? And will PGW projections vary significantly when different perturbations are applied? To address these questions, we examine the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from the PGW method over the NEUS by conducting multiple PGW experiments with varied perturbation spatial scales and choice of perturbed meteorological variables. The results show that the projections of precipitation and other essential variables at the regional mean scale are consistent across the PGW simulations, with a relative difference of much less than 10 %; however, different perturbation modifications can cause significant displacements of the storm events being simulated. Several previously assumed advantages of modifying only the temperature at regional mean scale, such as the preservation of geostrophic balance, do not appear to hold. Also, for these experiments, we find the regional mean perturbation produces a positive precipitation bias because it ignores the land–ocean warming contrast, which is a robust regional response to global warming. Overall, PGW experiments with perturbations from temperature or the combination of temperature and wind at the grid point scale are both recommended, depending on the research questions. The first approach can isolate the spatially dependent thermodynamic impact, and the latter incorporates both the thermodynamic and dynamic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multiscale Temporal Variability of the Global Air‐Sea CO 2 Flux Anomaly

Abstract The global air‐sea CO 2 flux (F) impacts and is impacted by a plethora of climate‐related processes operating at multiple time scales. In bulk mass transfer formulations, F is driven by physico‐ and bio‐chemical factors such as the air‐sea partial pressure difference (∆pCO 2 ), gas transfer velocity, sea surface temperature, and salinity–all varying at multiple time scales. To de‐convolve the impact of these factors on variability in F at different time scales, time‐resolved estimates of F were computed using a global data set assembled between 1988 and 2015. The F anomalies were defined as temporal deviations from the 28‐year time‐averaged value. Spectral analysis revealed four dominant timescales of variability in F–subseasonal, seasonal, interannual, and decadal with relative amplitude differences varying across regions. A second‐order Taylor series expansion was then conducted along these four timescales to separate drivers across differing regions. The analysis showed that on subseasonal timescales, wind speed variability explains some 66% of the global F anomaly and is the dominant driver. On seasonal, interannual, and decadal timescales, the ∆pCO 2 effect controlled by the ∆pCO 2 anomaly, explained much of the F anomaly. On decadal timescales, the F anomaly was almost entirely governed by the ∆pCO 2 effect with large contributions from high latitudes. The main drivers across timescales also dominate the regional F anomaly, particularly in the mid‐high latitude regions. Finally, the driver of the ∆pCO 2 effect was closely connected with the relative strength of atmospheric pCO 2 and the nonthermal component of oceanic pCO 2 anomaly associated with dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Blast Effects on Buildings (Final Report)

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has conservatively reduced the explosive safety standards suggested by the Small Quantities in Research Laboratories (SQRL) program testing by 60%. For this reason, further research into the detailed effects of small amounts of explosives in typically constructed rooms is needed in order to improve their factor of safety. The team was tasked with designing an experiment to investigate the effect of different variables on drywall under explosive blasts. In order to meet this objective, the team conducted a comprehensive literature review to gain an understanding of industry-standard construction practices and review previous tests conducted by the Army corp of engineers. Since the team used PBXN-5 rather than C4, as in SQRL, an initial shot was conducted to compare damage levels. From those results and the physical constraints of the testing chamber, the team redesigned multiple single-panel drywall frames to capture the entirety of the incurred damage. Proposed designs were narrowed down using a decision matrix. From the study of previous tests and literature review, variables were chosen that the team hypothesized to have an impact on drywall strength. The variables that were tested were chosen from the results of that work and specific variables the sponsor was interested in, and they were paint, humidity/moisture content, and explosive positioning relative to the studs. Detailed plans were made for each variable according to what conditions the team wanted to investigate. For humidity, this involved testing low, ambient, and high conditions by treating the panels in a chamber. Preliminary shots were performed to test the structural integrity of the frame and streamline the test diagnostics which involved a high-speed camera placed behind the drywall, outside of the chamber, and a pressure probe placed behind the drywall, inside the chamber. Once the instrumentation, diagnostics, and frame design were finalized, a quantitative damage criteria matrix was created to categorize the results of the main shot series. In conjunction with evidence from the high-speed video, the achieved damage levels indicate that high moisture content drywall is better able to withstand explosive blasts. Larger stud damage and lower drywall damage occurred when the explosive was located directly in front of a stud. Paint had no noticeable impact on strength. Ultimately, the team conducted a total of 17 tests, leaving the door open for future in-depth research into the impact of humidity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Microwave resonance enhanced CO 2 reduction using biochar

The conventional process for CO 2 conversion requires high energy and expensive catalysts, and shows poor product selectivity. Here, in this study, we address these challenges by investigating an environmentally friendly method for CO production through the variable frequency microwave-driven CO 2 Boudouard reaction over biochar. We hypothesized that tuning the microwave frequency to align with the dielectric properties of biochar, and thereby induce a resonance effect, could significantly enhance reaction efficiency. Experiments were conducted to explore the effect of microwave frequency on CO 2 conversion efficiency in the variable frequency microwave reactor operating within a frequency range of 2430–6000 MHz. Results reveal a significant resonance effect at 4225 MHz resulting in an outstanding CO 2 conversion of 96.3%, in sharp contrast to the complete absence of conversion observed at the conventional 2450 MHz. The resonance frequency not only facilitated exceptional conversion but also remarkably improved energy efficiency, yielding a productivity of 1427.5 µmol/kJ of CO. This represents a remarkable 474-fold increase compared to electrical heating. Furthermore, continuous microwave irradiation at this optimized frequency demonstrated remarkable stability and induced substantial enhancements in the pore structure and surface area of biochar. This innovative approach provides promising insights into sustainable and efficient CO production processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigation of onshore wind farm wake recovery with in situ aircraft measurements during AWAKEN

The share of wind power for electricity supply is increasing worldwide. This highly variable resource requires the improved prediction of power output for network stability. The interaction between wind farm wakes and the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) introduces uncertainties in power production that warrant detailed investigation. The flow downwind of wind farms is characterized by a reduction in wind speed and an increase in turbulence, which both vary with atmospheric conditions. During the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN), the Technische Universität Braunschweig conducted measurement flights with a research aircraft upwind and downwind of onshore wind farms in the southern Great Plains in Oklahoma in the USA. This study utilizes data from 20 flights conducted at approximately hub height in September 2023 to investigate the wind field variability downwind of the wind farms and vertical profiles to observe atmospheric stratification. The flights were aligned perpendicular to the main wind direction downwind of the King Plains and Armadillo Flats wind farms. Additionally, lidar data from both upwind and downwind ground-based measurement sites and sonic anemometer data were used for comprehensive analysis. Results indicate that under stable ABL conditions, the wake persists at greater downwind distances with a higher velocity deficit in the wake relative to the undisturbed flow compared to unstable stratification. In homogeneous terrain under stable conditions, wake recovery to 95 % occurs between a distance of 4.5 and 9 km downwind of the wind farm. In the semi-complex terrain characterized by shallow hills, slopes, and valleys, the wake exhibits a higher velocity deficit compared to homogeneous terrain, while in some cases the wake was amplified by the terrain resulting in higher velocity deficit 10 km downwind of the wind farm compared to the measurements closer to the wind farm. The turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and “TKE difference” was found to be a valuable measure in understanding wakes in a semi-complex terrain, showing a clear wake recovery and formation depending on the stratification of the ABL.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electrode and Microstructure Dependence of Oxygen Diffusion in Ferroelectric Hafnium Zirconium Oxide Thin Films

Hafnia-based ferroelectrics hold promise to reduce energy demand for computing by enabling compute-in-memory and as non-volatile memories. The ferroelectric phase in this material system is, in part, stabilized by oxygen vacancies. While oxygen vacancies may be a necessity for phase stability, they limit device endurance through diffusion and accumulation into conducting channels. Herein, it is shown that oxygen diffusion is spatially variable within individual grains of ferroelectric hafnium zirconium oxide (HZO). Using 18 O tracers and finite difference modeling, it is shown that grain boundaries and regions near electrode interfaces allow for relatively rapid oxygen diffusion, with values as much as 10 4 larger than the grain cores. Further, the selection of electrode material affects the diffusion coefficients across all microstructural regions. HZO films in contact with TiN electrodes result in more oxygen-deficient HZO films and higher oxygen diffusion coefficients. Tungsten electrodes result in fewer vacancies and lower diffusion coefficients. Diffusion activation energy differences between the HZO with the two electrodes is reconciled by differing populations of charged and uncharged oxygen vacancies. This insight into the local vacancy populations and diffusion pathways provides a platform for designing hafnia-based films, deposition processes, and integration strategies to reduce vacancy gradients and improve performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Are better combinations of DERs more profitable?: Combinatorial optimization for aggregation of DERs in wholesale electricity markets

Recently, regulatory changes in various countries have enabled the participation of small-scale distributed energy resources (DERs) aggregated in virtual power plants (VPPs) in wholesale electricity markets. The inherent uncertainty and variability of resources comprising VPPs can lead to imbalances between forecasted and metered outputs, potentially resulting in the deficient settlement of generation under imbalance settlement rules. To address this challenge, it is essential to manage variability in the planning phase and uncertainty in the operation phase. Most current research focuses on managing forecasting errors in the operational phase, with insufficient attention given to the planning phase. Here, to bridge this gap, this paper proposes an optimal combination strategy for DERs to maximize the market participation revenue of VPPs by proactively managing variability in the planning phase. To estimate the expected revenue, we conducted analyses for homogeneous and heterogeneous DERs using Monte Carlo simulations and genetic algorithms. Remarkably, the proposed method demonstrated approximately 8 % higher revenue compared to the neighboring group case when considering diversity in DER set configuration with equal proportions of photovoltaics and wind.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extension of Large Fire Emissions From Summer to Autumn and Its Drivers in the Western US

Abstract Burned areas in the western US have increased ten‐fold since 1980s, which are attributable to multiple factors, including increasing heat, changing precipitation patterns, and extended drought. To better understand how these factors contribute to large fire emissions (gridded monthly fire emissions >95th percentile of all the fire emissions in the western US; 0.009 Gg/month), we build a machine learning model to predict fire emissions (PM 2.5 ) over the western US at 0.25° resolution, interpreted using explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). From the predictor contributions derived from XAI, we conduct k‐means clustering analysis to identify four clusters of predictor variables representing different drivers of large fire emissions. The four clusters feature the contributions of fuel load (Cluster 1) and different levels of dryness (Cluster 2–4), controlled by fuel moisture, drought condition, and fire‐favorable large‐scale meteorological patterns featuring high temperature, high pressure, and low relative humidity. In the past two decades, large fire emissions peak in summer. However, large fire emissions increased significantly in September and October in 2010–2020 relative to 2000–2009, extending the peak large fire emissions from summer to autumn. The larger enhancements of large fire emissions during autumn compared to summer are contributed by decreased fuel moisture, along with more frequent concurrent fire‐favorable large‐scale meteorological patterns and drought. These results highlight fuel drying as a common driver supported by multiple drivers, such as warmer temperature and more frequent synoptic patterns favorable for fires, in increasing the autumn risk of large fire emissions across the western US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

How will future climate change impact prescribed fire across the contiguous United States?

As of 2023, the use of prescribed fire to manage ecosystems accounts for more than 50% of area burned annually across the United States. Prescribed fire is carried out when meteorological conditions, including temperature, humidity, and wind speed are appropriate for its safe and effective application. However, changes in these meteorological variables associated with future climate change may impact future opportunities to conduct prescribed fire. In this study, we combine climate projections with information on prescribed burning windows for ecoregions across the contiguous United States (CONUS) to compute the number of days when meteorological conditions allow for the safe and effective application of prescribed fire under present-day (2006–2015) and future climate (2051–2060) conditions. The resulting projections, which cover 57% of all vegetated area across the CONUS, indicate fewer days with conditions suitable for prescribed burning across ecoregions of the eastern United States due to rising maximum daily temperatures, but opportunities increase in the northern and northwestern United States, driven primarily by rising minimum temperatures and declining wind speeds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Polar Scaling Technique for the Regularization of Strongly Singular and Strongly Near-Singular Helmholtz Surface Integrals Evaluated Over 2-D Domains

The numerical integration of expressions containing strong singularities or strong near-singularities has long been a challenging problem in the electromagnetics community. Much attention has been paid to this problem, as strong $1/R^{{2}}$ singularities routinely appear when implementing electromagnetic simulation techniques like the method of moments (MoM). To date, several techniques, from singularity extraction to singularity cancellation (SC), have been employed to deal with problems that require the evaluation of 2-D strongly singular integrals. However, no single technique has been proposed that can deal with both strong singularities and strong near-singularities in a fully numerical manner for arbitrary 2-D domains. Moreover, it has been claimed that the Helmholtz-type strongly singular integral found in the MoM is convergent in a principal value sense, but this convergence value has yet to be proven mathematically. In this work, we will conduct the convergence proof and introduce a “polar scaling” change of variables method that may be used to evaluate Helmholtz integrals with both strong and weak singularities/near-singularities. The technique is fully numerical and can in principle be applied to any planar or curved polygon and any nonsingular basis function. We will also provide numerical results showing useful convergence behavior for integrals involving both exact and near-singularities.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

VAINE: Visualization and AI for Natural Experiments

Natural experiments are observational studies where the assignment of treatment conditions to different populations occur by chance ``in the wild''. Researchers from fields such as economics, healthcare, and the social sciences leverage natural experiments to conduct hypothesis testing and causal effect estimation for treatment and outcome variables that would otherwise be costly, infeasible, or unethical. In this paper, we introduce VAINE (Visualization and AI for Natural Experiments), a visual analytics tool for identifying and understanding natural experiments from observational data. We then demonstrate how VAINE can be used to validate causal relationships, estimate average treatment effects, and identify statistical phenomena such as Simpson’s paradox through two use cases.

Guo, Grace↗