Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “variability prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9

A mixture of grass–legume cover crop species may ameliorate water stress in a changing climate

Climate change models predict increasing precipitation variability in the mid-latitude regions of Earth, generating a need to reduce the negative impacts of these changes on crop production. Despite considerable research on how cover crops support agriculture in a changing climate, understanding is limited of how climate change influences the growth of cover crops. We investigated the early development of two common cover crop species—crimson clover (Trifolium incarnatum) and rye (Secale cereale)—and hypothesized that growing them in the mixture would ameliorate stress from drought or waterlogging. This hypothesis was tested in a 25-day greenhouse experiment, where the two factors (species number and water stress) were fully crossed in randomized blocks, and plant responses were quantified through survival, growth rate, biomass production and root morphology. Water stress negatively influenced the early growth of these two species in contrasting ways: crimson clover was susceptible to drought while rye performed poorly under waterlogging. Per-plant biomass in rye was always greater in mixture than in monoculture, while per-plant biomass of crimson clover was greater in mixture under drought. Both species grew longer roots in mixture than in monoculture under drought, and total biomass of mixtures did not differ significantly from the more-productive monoculture (rye) in any water condition. In the face of increasingly variable precipitation, growing crimson clover and rye together has potential to ameliorate water stress, a possibility that should be further investigated in field experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multimode Metastructures: Novel Hybrid 3D Lattice Topologies

With the rapid proliferation of additive manufacturing and 3D printing technologies, architected cellular solids including truss-like 3D lattice topologies offer the opportunity to program the effective material response through topological design at the mesoscale. The present report summarizes several of the key findings from a 3-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program. The program set out to explore novel lattice topologies that can be designed to control, redirect, or dissipate energy from one or multiple insult environments relevant to Sandia missions, including crush, shock/impact, vibration, thermal, etc. In the first 4 sections, we document four novel lattice topologies stemming from this study: coulombic lattices, multi-morphology lattices, interpenetrating lattices, and pore-modified gyroid cellular solids, each with unique properties that had not been achieved by existing cellular/lattice metamaterials. The fifth section explores how unintentional lattice imperfections stemming from the manufacturing process, primarily sur face roughness in the case of laser powder bed fusion, serve to cause stochastic response but that in some cases such as elastic response the stochastic behavior is homogenized through the adoption of lattices. In the sixth section we explore a novel neural network screening process that allows such stocastic variability to be predicted. In the last three sections, we explore considerations of computational design of lattices. Specifically, in section 7 using a novel generative optimization scheme to design novel pareto-optimal lattices for multi-objective environments. In section 8, we use computational design to optimize a metallic lattice structure to absorb impact energy for a 1000 ft/s impact. And in section 9, we develop a modified micromorphic continuum model to solve wave propagation problems in lattices efficiently.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Repurposing Fossil-Fueled Assets For Energy Storage

The annual retirement of U.S. coal-fired electricity generation units (CF-EGU) is at an all-time high and is expected to continue. This loss of reliable baseload generation, combined with predicted growth of variable renewable energy (VRE) generation, is expected to stress grid reliability as the number of load-following resources drops below the experienced load variability. Many regions are already experiencing challenges, and fossil retirement-related warnings by the North American Electric Reliability Corp. are becoming more dire. All CF-EGU retirements pose significant challenges to asset owners, local workforces, and their communities. Repurposing a retiring CF-EGU as a long-duration energy storage plant can address these challenges and offer a suite of additional benefits to asset owners, the grid, and society. This project performed a techno-economic evaluation and assessment of repurposing a Duke Energy fossil-fueled asset (in particular, a coal plant) into an energy storage system by integrating the retiring asset with a Malta long duration Pumped Heat Energy Storage (PHES) system. The project validated the technoeconomic benefits of repurposing retiring coal plants into long-duration energy storage using Malta’s PHES. Key findings for this project are summarized below: (1) Technical: (a) Retiring coal plants (and other steam turbine fossil generation) can be repurposed to enable the clean energy transition using Malta’s technology. (b) For older retiring coal plants, repurposing the site and electrical interconnection for a standalone PHES plant is the most economically favorable option. (c) For newer coal plants where there is also a local peaking capacity need, repowering the steam cycle into a hybrid integration with PHES is attractive. (d) A process was developed to assist fossil generation owners in choosing the best path for each plant’s circumstances. (2) Economic (a) Communities facing economic challenges caused by the retirement of fossil generation would benefit from repurposing the plant as long-duration energy storage using Malta’s PHES. (b) On a $/MW basis, repowering retiring coal units into Malta PHES plants can maintain the same number and types of jobs and economic activity. (c) For a 70% carbon reduction scenario, a 10-hour Malta PHES plant is more economic for the asset owner than similar-power 4-hour batteries. This project showed that repurposing a retiring coal unit into thermal energy storage, by integrating it with a Malta PHES system, makes techno-economic sense. At least two integration options are available, with the optimal solution depending on the coal plant and its location. Repurposing retiring coal plant into energy storage results in economic benefits for the plant owner and local communities.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications: Fourth Edition

As the world increasingly seeks low-carbon energy solutions, solar power emerges as the most abundant resource on our planet. However, the challenge of effectively harnessing this energy is crucial in the coming years. Solar energy applications such as photovoltaics, solar heating and cooling, and concentrating solar power use different technologies to capitalize on sunlight. Each system has unique capabilities and requirements, underscoring the need for reliable information about solar resources across diverse installations, from residential rooftops to large-scale power plants. This is especially important for substantial projects, often exceeding $1 billion in construction costs. Before embarking on such ventures, it is imperative to obtain accurate data concerning solar resource quality and reliability at specific sites. Developers require detailed historical information, including seasonal, daily, hourly, and, ideally, subhourly variability to effectively predict a power plant's annual performance. Without these vital data, financial analyses fall short. Moreover, with the growing adoption of distributed photovoltaics, integrating these generation sources becomes critical to maintaining grid reliability and stability. By accurately forecasting generation patterns, utilities and system operators can facilitate greater integration of solar energy, thus ensuring the operational stability of the grid. The complexity and importance of these issues have prompted the foremost experts in the field to collaborate under the auspices of the International Energy Agency's (IEA's) Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (PVPS) Task 16 to publish this handbook, which summarizes state-of-the-art information about all these topics. The efforts focus on providing reliable data and insights that can help shape our investments in solar energy and drive a sustainable future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Connecting Nitrogen Transformations Mediated by the Rhizosphere Microbiome to Perennial Cropping System Productivity in Marginal Lands

The demand for energy from biofuel production is increasing, prompting concerns about the environmental impact and long-term sustainability of bioenergy cropping systems. These cropping systems will make up much of our future landscapes, and threaten to take the place of food cropping systems. Many life cycle analyses of bioenergy sustainability focus on carbon accrual and budgets, since they want to maximize carbon accrual while producing alternative fuel. Less attention has been given to nitrogen (N) dynamics in these systems. N is the most commonly limiting nutrient for plants, but applying nitrogen fertilizer- as we do for most cropping systems – is harmful to the environment, energetically costly, and produces greenhouse gases. In other words, adding nitrogen by fertilizer bioenergy systems could add to the very problems (climate change) it is trying to address. This is especially true for the areas that are proposed for bioenergy systems: marginal lands. These more degraded lands do not complete with food crops, but do have limited nitrogen. If we are to use these marginal lands for bioenergy, we need to understand the mechanisms regulating nutrient acquisition, and identify ways that bioenergy crops can get nitrogen in sustainable ways. Nutrient acquisition in the soil is performed by microbes in the root zone, or rhizosphere. Microbes can either mineralize nitrogen in the soil (from organic forms) or fix nitrogen from the air, in a process called nitrogen fixation. The goal of our project was thus to understand how the rhizosphere microbiome provides nutrients to bioenergy crops on marginal lands. We focus especially on the process of nitrogen fixation, since it has potential to get “fertilizer for free” that has much less environmental harm. We investigated this goal using sites from the DOE Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center (GLBRC) in the upper Midwest, and associated lab and ‘omics methods. We group our findings into three major areas. First, we showed that nitrogen fixation, the conversion of N2 gas from the air to ammonium that is usable by plants, is performed in bioenergy soils, and benefits switchgrass crops. While more well-studied in leguminous plants, free-living nitrogen fixation can occur in some systems, and represents a potential opportunity to gain ‘free’ sustainable nitrogen source. We identified the nitrogen fixing bacteria that were most active in providing switchgrass with N, and showed that the drivers of nitrogen fixation occurred at a microscale; it is not well-predicted by bulk variables like soil moisture or plant phenology. Second, we showed that nitrogen fixation is not suppressed by long-term fertilizer. We expected that plentiful nitrogen would reduce the symbiotic relationship between nitrogen fixers and plants, and ‘downregulate’ fixation. We did not find evidence for this, either after long-term fertilizer in the field, or short-term fertilizer in the greenhouse. Finally, we identified the root exudates, carbon compounds that are emitted from the root, that best stimulate nitrogen fixation. We found that carbohydrates were better at stimulating fixation than organic acids. We expected these exudates to be emitted from the plant in periods of high N demand, but we found they are emitted when N is plentiful. This suggests that the stimulation of N fixation by plants is a passive process. Overall, we show that nitrogen fixation has potential to support bioenergy cropping system, and future management could develop ways to maximize it. However, this may not be best achieved via the plant – we found very little evidence of a ‘transactional’ system by which plants are controlling when and where nitrogen fixation is stimulated. It will be better to understand how management practices like planting and fertilizer application affect the microscale soil dynamics, which will determine nitrogen fixation rates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

WiDS Livermore Datathon 2025

The WiDS Datathon 2025 requires participants to build a model to predict both an individual’s sex and their ADHD diagnosis using functional brain imaging data of children and adolescents and their socio-demographic, emotions, and parenting information. The task is to create a multi-outcome model to predict two target variables: 1) ADHD (1=yes or 0=no) and 2) female (1=yes or 0=no).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

UNCERTAINTY-AWARE DEEP LEARNING FRAMEWORK FOR FORECASTING COASTAL WATER LEVEL IN VIRGINIA BEACH

Coastal areas like Virginia Beach, USA, are increasingly vulnerable to flooding. To mitigate the impact of flooding, it is crucial for the City of Virginia Beach to have reliable 72-hour-ahead (3 days) forecasts of water levels at key gauge locations. To support this effort, several sensors have been installed throughout the city to monitor water levels and other environmental parameters such as wind speed, precipitation, and atmospheric pressure. Leveraging sensor data from one of these locations, we developed an uncertainty-aware deep learning model to forecast water levels. We employed deep quantile regression (DQR) to quantify variability in the predictions and examined the performance of three different model architectures. In addition to exclusively including historical data, we investigated the improvement wind forecasts provide to the accuracy of 72-hour-ahead water level predictions. The results show a twelvefold improvement in the flood forecast for a real flooding event.

Hasan, Mahmud [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerat↗

Pilot-Scale Pelleting Tests on High-Moisture Pine, Switchgrass, and Their Blends: Impact on Pellet Physical Properties, Chemical Composition, and Heating Values

In this study, we evaluated the pelleting characteristics of southern yellow pine (SYP), switchgrass (SG), and their blends for thermochemical conversion processes, such as pyrolysis and gasification. Using a pilot-scale ring-die pellet mill, we specifically assessed the impact of blend moisture, length-to-diameter (L/D) ratio in the pellet die, and ratio of pine to SG on the physico-chemical properties of the resulting pellets. We found that an increase in pine content by 25–50% marginally affected the bulk density; however, it also led to an increase in calorific value by 7% and a decrease in ash content by 72%. A moisture content of 25% (wet basis) and an L/D ratio of 5 resulted in poor pellet durability at <90% and bulk density values of <500 kg/m 3 , but increasing the L/D ratio to 9 and lowering the moisture content to 20% (w.b.) improved the pellet durability to >90% and the bulk density to >500 kg/m 3 . Blends with ≥50% pine content resulted in lower energy consumption, while a lower L/D ratio resulted in higher pelleting energy. Based on these findings, we successfully demonstrated the high-moisture pelleting of 2.5 ton of pine top residues blended with SG at 60:40 and 50:50 ratios. The quality of the pellets was monitored off-line and at-line by near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. Multivariate models constructed by combining the NIR data and the pelleting process variables could successfully predict the pine content (R 2 = 0.99), higher heating value (R 2 = 0.98), ash (R 2 = 0.95), durability (R 2 = 0.94), and bulk density (R 2 = 0.86) of the pellets. Thus, we established how blending and densification of SYP and SG biomass could improve feedstock specifications and that NIR spectroscopy can effectively monitor the pellet properties during the high-moisture pelleting process.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7

Abstract. Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. Consequently, the role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system continues to be of great interest. Recent simulations suggest the possibility of significant changes in both large-scale aspects of the ocean and atmospheric circulations and in the regional responses to climate change, as well as improvements in representations of small-scale processes and extremes, when resolution is enhanced. The first phase of the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP1) was successful at producing a baseline multi-model assessment of global simulations with model grid spacings of 25–50 km in the atmosphere and 10–25 km in the ocean, a significant increase when compared to models with standard resolutions on the order of 1° that are typically used as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments. In addition to over 250 peer-reviewed manuscripts using the published HighResMIP1 datasets, the results were widely cited in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and were the basis of a variety of derived datasets, including tracked cyclones (both tropical and extratropical), river discharge, storm surge, and impact studies. There were also suggestions from the few ocean eddy-rich coupled simulations that aspects of climate variability and change might be significantly influenced by improved process representation in such models. The compromises that HighResMIP1 made should now be revisited, given the recent major advances in modelling and computing resources. Aspects that will be reconsidered include experimental design and simulation length, complexity, and resolution. In addition, larger ensemble sizes and a wider range of future scenarios would enhance the applicability of HighResMIP. Therefore, we propose the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) to improve and extend the previous work, to address new science questions, and to further advance our understanding of the role of horizontal resolution (and hence process representation) in state-of-the-art climate simulations. With further increases in high-performance computing resources and modelling advances, along with the ability to take full advantage of these computational resources, an enhanced investigation of the drivers and consequences of variability and change in both large- and synoptic-scale weather and climate is now possible. With the arrival of global cloud-resolving models (currently run for relatively short timescales), there is also an opportunity to improve links between such models and more traditional CMIP models, with HighResMIP providing a bridge to link understanding between these domains. HighResMIP also aims to link to other CMIP projects and international efforts such as the World Climate Research Program lighthouse activities and various digital twin initiatives. It also has the potential to be used as training and validation data for the fast-evolving machine learning climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Engagement: Hyperparameter Optimization of Generative Adversarial Network Models for High-Energy Physics Simulations

We present our SciDAC FASTMath-HEP partnership results for tuning generative adversarial models (GANs) for high energy physics applications. The GANs are used in hybrid simulations to accelerate otherwise time-consuming computations. We optimize for both, prediction accuracy and variability with the goal to find GAN architectures that are reliable and robust.

high energy physics↗

Experimental and computational design tools for industrial drying processes: Challenges in process‐limit prediction

Abstract The coating and drying of inks and slurries are important steps to manufacture a plethora of products. Drying processes, particularly, comprise energy‐intensive steps that affect product cost and quality. Prior work has highlighted failures of various multicomponent diffusivity models to conserve mass in dryer modeling and challenges in predicting process limits given variability in published values of key thermodynamic parameters. Herein, we develop a computational model and benchtop drying experiments to investigate these concerns for drying polymer‐laden coatings. Model predictions of process limits in a single‐zone drying oven demonstrate that published variability in Flory–Huggins parameter yields large variations in predicted operating temperatures above which blistering occurs. This indicates that caution should be exercised when choosing approaches to obtain or predict the Flory–Huggins parameter, and that both benchtop drying experiments and a set of additional experiments, such as sorption experiments, are needed to fully characterize and optimize a given drying process.

Parrish, Chance↗

An interpretable machine learning model for advancing terrestrial ecosystem predictions

We apply an interpretable Long Short-Term Memory (iLSTM) network for land-atmosphere carbon flux predictions based on time series observations of seven environmental variables. iLSTM enables interpretability of variable importance and variable-wise temporal importance to the prediction of targets by exploring internal network structures. The application results indicate that iLSTM not only improves prediction performance by capturing different dynamics of individual variables, but also reasonably interprets the different contribution of each variable to the target and its different temporal relevance to the target. This variable and temporal importance interpretation of iLSTM advances terrestrial ecosystem model development as well as our predictive understanding of the system.

Lu, Dan↗

Elastic Changepoint Detection for Globally-indexed Functional Time Series Data with Climate Applications

Changepoint detection is a vital tool in the application of climate data analysis. Numerous types of climate observation data are most properly represented by functional time series, implying a need for accurate changepoint detection methods applicable to functional time series data. Such data taken at a global scale often contain both spatial heterogeneity and dependence as well as phase (time) misalignment. In this report, we present methods which can detect spatially-dependent changepoints while allowing different estimates of change time and change strength depending on location. Additionally, we provide extensions to this spatially-predicted model which controls for phase variability among observations. Our methods provide the ability to detect a single change, or control for epidemic changes (where a “return-to-normal” change is more likely to be detected than the initial change). We showcase results analyzing the June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, where our methods demonstrate the ability to accurately detect both single and epidemic changepoints even in the presence of strong seasonal variability. We find that our spatially-predicted model improves the detection of relevant changepoints versus methods which do not take spatial information into account, and we find that controlling for phase variability helps to control the false discovery rate during the detection process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of Arsenic and Selenium in Coal Fly Ash to Improve Evaluations for Disposal and Reuse Potential (Final Technical Report)

Coal fly ash is a high volume waste material that is discarded in landfills and surface water impoundments across the U.S. and is also widely recycled for a variety of applications. The leaching of potential of contaminants of concern, such as arsenic (As) and selenium (Se), is often the driver of risk assessments for coal ash disposal and reuse. The extent of leachable As and Se depends on several factors related to environmental conditions and fly ash characteristics. Previous studies employed various methods to delineate the concentration, chemical form, and distribution of As and Se in fly ash materials. However, few studies have attempted to directly correlate these properties to mobilization parameters relevant to disposal and reuse. Instead, the coal residuals industries often rely upon standardized leaching protocols that can be laborious or involve hazardous chemicals. The goals of the project were to: 1) Develop and evaluate a characterization protocol that can be used to screen fly ash samples for leachability of As and Se; 2) Characterize As, Se, and associated constituents of fly ash particles at multiple length scales (nanometer to micrometer) to determine if elemental associations differ as a function of the resolution of characterization; and 3) Establish a predictive model for the chemical composition of coal ash produced annually at major U.S. coal fired power facilities on 50-year national coal supply records. For the first objective, we performed leaching experiments with 52 fly ash samples collected from 15 different U.S. power plants and representing coal feedstocks from the three major domestic coal regions. For this work, we assessed the mobilization potential of As and Se in fly ash based on standardized leaching protocols and performed multivariate and lasso regression analyses to explore correlations of leachable As and Se contents with characteristics such as major element contents, loss on ignition (LOI) and pH. The results of regression models indicated that major elements (Fe, Ca, Al) for a wide range of fly ashes can serve as predictor variables for the leaching potential of As, but not for Se. LOI and pH were not important predictive variables in the models. Both regression approaches resulted in relatively strong fits for leachable As (correlation coefficient R 2 = 0.78 for both models) compared to models for leachable Se (R 2 = 0.49). Overall, these results suggest that correlation models combined with on-site elemental analysis with portable analyzers may enable a screening method for leachable As in coal ash. For the second objective, we utilized nanoscale 2-D imaging (30-50 nm spot size) with the Hard X-ray Nanoprobe (HXN) in combination with microprobe X-ray capabilities (~5 µm resolution) to determine As and Se elemental associations in fly ash particles. Speciation of As and Se was also measured at the nano- to microscale with X-ray absorption spectroscopy. The enhanced resolution of HXN showed As and Se that were diffusely located around or comingled with Ca- and Fe-rich particles. The results also showed nanoparticles of Se attached to the surface of fly ash grains. Overall, a comparison of As and Se species across scales highlights the heterogeneity and complexity of chemical associations for these trace elements of concern in coal fly ash. For the final objective, we developed a predictive model for major element composition of coal ash in reserve at disposal sites of major U.S. coal fired power plants. This model was constructed from coal purchase records of 705 power stations from 1973-2022 and was trained on coal ash composition data showing that coal ash elemental composition is strongly associated with the source of feedstock coal. The model showed regional shifts in the major element contents of ash produced by power plants in the last 50 years, particularly for calcium and iron (expressed as %CaO and %Fe 2 O 3 ), as coal-fired power stations changed their source of coal over this time frame. Our approach enables an estimation of coal ash chemical composition that is stored in waste impoundments at individual power stations. Such information can help delineate the regional market potential for material applications that would utilize coal ash harvested from disposal sites across the U.S.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Subseasonal prediction with and without a well-represented stratosphere in CESM1

There is a growing demand for understanding sources of predictability on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Predictability at subseasonal time scales is believed to come from processes varying slower than the atmosphere such as soil moisture, snowpack, sea ice, and ocean heat content. The stratosphere as well as tropospheric modes of variability can also provide predictability at subseasonal time scales. Furthermore, the contributions of the above sources to S2S predictability are not well quantified. Here we evaluate the subseasonal prediction skill of the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), in the default version of the model as well as a version with the improved representation of stratospheric variability to assess the role of an improved stratosphere on prediction skill. We demonstrate that the subseasonal skill of CESM1 for surface temperature and precipitation is comparable to that of operational models. We find that a better-resolved stratosphere improves stratospheric but not surface prediction skill for weeks 3–4.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗