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DOE OSTI2026

Data for: A hybrid biophysical-machine learning framework for diurnal surface energy flux estimation using proximal sensing

Thermal-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal datasets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for specific surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of an ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81-0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46-0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical – machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

Agricultural Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

A statistical and simulation-informed model for estimating permeability from pore size distribution in saturated geomaterials

Accurate permeability estimation is essential across subsurface engineering applications but remains challenging due to the complex pore structures of natural geomaterials. Traditional empirical methods and simplified theoretical models often inadequately capture the role of pore size distribution and connectivity. Here, this study develops a statistical and simulation-informed permeability model that collapses pore-scale complexity into a compact scaling of the form k = αϕμ d 2 , where ϕ is porosity, μ d is mean pore size, and α is a weakly varying coefficient. By combining pore network simulations with statistical analysis of unimodal and bimodal pore size distributions, we identify three key findings: (i) permeability is much more sensitive to mean pore size than to porosity; (ii) across extensive datasets, the ratio σ d /μ d (standard deviation to mean) clusters around a characteristic value ∼0.4, allowing the effects of the full pore size distribution to be represented by μ d and a narrowly varying α ≈ 0.05; and (iii) for bimodal systems, there exists a critical fraction of small pores ∼0.78 above which flow becomes small-pore dominated, enabling the definition of an effective flow-controlling pore population and facilitating simplified permeability estimation for such systems. The resulting model, which requires only porosity and a representative mean pore size as inputs, is validated against comprehensive experimental datasets (>1700 samples) spanning diverse soils and rocks and achieves good predictive accuracy. Overall, this work provides a physically grounded yet practically simple permeability estimator suitable for subsurface engineering, environmental protection, and resource management applications.

Permeability↗

DOE OSTI2026

Atomistic Simulation of Glasses and Amorphous Materials: Challenges and Opportunities for the Next Decade

Atomistic simulations have become indispensable tools for understanding glass structure, dynamics, and properties, yet persistent challenges limit their predictive power. This perspective examines three interconnected issues, namely glass formation procedures, interatomic potential development, and machine learning applications, which emerged from the 5th International Workshop on Challenges of Atomistic Simulations of Glasses and Amorphous Materials. We identify convergent community priorities for (i) standardized validation protocols, (ii) curated benchmark datasets with complete metadata, and (iii) open repositories for glasses. A systematic was forward is provided by a hierarchical validation framework for assessing the structural fidelity, property prediction, and behavioral realism of simulation techniques. Looking ahead, transformative advances are promised by the fusion of classical techniques with machine learning based approaches, for instance, by integrating swap Monte Carlo with machine-learning (ML) potentials, leveraging foundation models through transfer learning, and finetuning ML potentials with experimental data. Progress depends on the community committing to validated models, reproducible protocols, and sustained data sharing.

Krishnan, N. M. Anoop↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimation of constituent properties of concrete materials with an artificial neural network based method

Multi-scale models are developed for heterogeneous concrete materials to estimate their macroscopic mechanical properties in terms of micro-structural data. One crucial challenge of those models is the identification of local properties of constituent phases. In this paper, we present an efficient method based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Typical concrete materials are taken as example. A macroscopic analytical strength criterion is established from three steps of nonlinear homogenization procedure. The macroscopic strength of materials is determined as a function of the frictional coefficient and cohesion of solid cement particles at nanometer scale, intra-particle pores, inter-particle pores and aggregates (inclusions). The objective is to identify the nanoscopic frictional coefficient and cohesion of cement particle from measured macroscopic values of uniaxial compression and tensile strengths. For this purpose, a numerical method based on the ANN is developed. With the analytical macroscopic strength criterion, sensitivity studies are first realized to identify the most important micro-structural parameters influencing the macroscopic strength of concrete. A simplified analytical macroscopic strength criterion is then proposed. A large dataset is further constructed through the inversion of the analytical strength criterion by using the aggregates volume fraction, porosity, macroscopic uniaxial tensile and compressive strengths as input variables and the frictional coefficient and cohesion of cement particles as output unknowns. An ANN model containing four hidden layers and 100 neurons in each layer is constructed and trained by using this dataset. Various types of validation of the ANN model are performed. It is found that the proposed ANN based model can effectively predict the frictional coefficient and cohesion of porous cement paste at the microscopic scale with a very good accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Neural Posterior Estimation for Scalable and Accurate Inverse Parameter Inference in Li-Ion Batteries

Diagnosing the internal state of Li-ion batteries is critical for battery research, operation of real-world systems, and prognostic evaluation of remaining lifetime. By using physics-based models to perform probabilistic parameter estimation via Bayesian calibration, diagnostics can account for the uncertainty due to model fitness, data noise, and the observability of any given parameter. However, Bayesian calibration in Li-ion batteries using electrochemical data is computationally intensive even when using a fast surrogate in place of physics-based models, requiring many thousands of model evaluations. A fully amortized alternative is neural posterior estimation (NPE). NPE shifts the computational burden from the parameter estimation step to data generation and model training, reducing the parameter estimation time from minutes to milliseconds, enabling real-time applications. The present work shows that NPE can infer parameters equally or more accurately than Bayesian calibration, even if it leads to higher voltage reconstruction errors. We also demonstrate that the higher computational costs for data generation are tractable even in high-dimensional cases (ranging from 6 to 27 estimated parameters). The NPE method also offers several interpretability advantages over Bayesian calibration, such as local parameter sensitivity to specific regions of the voltage curve. The NPE method is demonstrated using an experimental fast charge dataset, with parameter estimates validated against measurements of loss of lithium inventory and loss of active material. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NatLabRockies/BatFIT).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

A non-isothermal breakage-damage model for plastic-bonded granular materials incorporating temperature, pressure, and rate dependencies

Plastic-bonded granular materials (PBM) are widely used in industrial sectors, including building construction, abrasive applications, and defense applications such as plastic-bonded explosives. The mechanical behavior of PBM is highly nonlinear, irreversible, rate dependent, and temperature sensitive governed by various micromechanical attributions such as grain crushing and binder damage. This paper presents a thermodynamically consistent, microstructure-informed constitutive model to capture these characteristic behaviors of PBM. Key features of the model include a breakage internal variable to upscale the grain-scale information to the continuum level and to predict grain size evolution under mechanical loading. In addition, a damage internal state variable is introduced to account for the damage, deterioration, and debonding of the binder matrix upon loading. Temperature is taken as a fundamental external state variable to handle non-isothermal loading paths. The proposed model is able to capture with good accuracy several important aspects of the mechanical properties of PBM, such as pressure-dependent elasticity, pressure-dependent yield strength, brittle-to-ductile transition, temperature dependency, and rate dependency in the post-yielding regime. Furthermore, the model is validated against multiple published datasets obtained from confined and unconfined compression tests, covering various PBM compositions, confining pressures, temperatures, and strain rates.

Breakage↗

DOE OSTI2022

Non-destructive measurement and real-time monitoring of apple hardness during ultrasonic contact drying via portable NIR spectroscopy and machine learning

Portable near-infrared spectrometer in the spectral range of 900–1700 nm was evaluated for the first time to assess and monitor apple hardness in real-time during ultrasonic drying. Calibration models were developed using PLS and ANN, and their performances were evaluated by internal leave-one-out cross-validation and an external dataset. Several pre-treatments including standard normal variate (SNV), multiplicative scatter correction (MSC), Savitzky–Golay first and second derivatives were employed to examine the effects of spectral variations in hardness prediction. Seven important wavelengths were selected using weighted regression coefficients to develop a simple MLR model to facilitate the model interpretation and circumvent noise. The models using PLS, MLR, and ANN with selected wavelengths predicted the apple hardness with R 2 p of 0.91, 0.91, 0.95, and RMSEP of 14.78, 14.85, and 12.46 N, respectively. Finally, the results indicate that portable NIR spectrometers are quite promising for real-time monitoring of apple hardness during ultrasonic drying.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tangent functional connectomes uncover more unique phenotypic traits

Functional connectomes (FCs) containing pairwise estimations of functional couplings between pairs of brain regions are commonly represented by correlation matrices. As symmetric positive definite matrices, FCs can be transformed via tangent space projections, resulting into tangent-FCs. Tangent-FCs have led to more accurate models predicting brain conditions or aging. Motivated by the fact that tangent-FCs seem to be better biomarkers than FCs, we hypothesized that tangent-FCs have also a higher fingerprint. We explored the effects of six factors: fMRI condition, scan length, parcellation granularity, reference matrix, main-diagonal regularization, and distance metric. Our results showed that identification rates are systematically higher when using tangent-FCs across the “fingerprint gradient” (here including test-retest, monozygotic and dizygotic twins). Highest identification rates were achieved when minimally (0.01) regularizing FCs while performing tangent space projection using Riemann reference matrix and using correlation distance to compare the resulting tangent-FCs. Such configuration was validated in a second dataset (resting-state).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of the optical model of the T2K 3D segmented plastic scintillator detector unit cube

The magnetized near detector (ND280) of the T2K long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment has been recently upgraded aiming to satisfy the requirement of reducing the systematic uncertainty from measuring the neutrino–nucleus interaction cross section, which is the largest systematic uncertainty in the search for leptonic charge-parity symmetry violation. A key component of the upgrade is SuperFGD, a 3D segmented plastic scintillator detector made of approximately 2,000,000 optically-isolated 1 cm 3 cubes. The SuperFGD cube unit shows promising optical performance, including a high light yield of about 40 photoelectrons (p.e.) per channel, a low cube-to-cube crosstalk rate below 3%, and a sub-nanosecond time resolution of 0.96 ns. By combining tracking and stopping power measurements of final state particles, this novel detector enables precise 3D-imaging of GeV neutrino interactions with reduced systematic uncertainties. A detailed Geant4 based optical simulation of the SuperFGD building block, i.e. a plastic scintillating cube read out by three wavelength shifting fibers, has been developed and validated with the different datasets collected in various beam tests. In this manuscript the description of the optical model as well as the comparison with data are reported.

Neutrino oscillations↗

DOE OSTI2025

Conditioned quantum-assisted deep generative surrogate for particle-calorimeter interactions

Particle collisions at accelerators like the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), recorded by experiments such as ATLAS and CMS, enable precise standard model measurements and searches for new phenomena. Simulating these collisions significantly influences experiment design and analysis but incurs immense computational costs, projected at millions of CPU-years annually during the high luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) phase. Currently, simulating a single event with Geant4 consumes around 1000 CPU seconds, with calorimeter simulations especially demanding. To address this, we propose a conditioned quantum-assisted generative model, integrating a conditioned variational autoencoder (VAE) and a conditioned restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM). Our RBM architecture is tailored for D-Wave’s Pegasus-structured advantage quantum annealer for sampling, leveraging the flux bias for conditioning. This approach combines classical RBMs as universal approximators for discrete distributions with quantum annealing’s speed and scalability. We also introduce an adaptive method for efficiently estimating effective inverse temperature, and validate our framework on Dataset 2 of CaloChallenge.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heterogeneous estimations of non-pharmaceutical mitigation behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of human behavior in mitigating the spread of disease. Nonetheless, human behavior is often overlooked in models of disease spread, particularly by underutilizing real-world data. We address this by estimating probabilities that individuals engage in behaviors that influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk during the COVID-19 pandemic, between September 2020 and June 2022. These behaviors include wearing a mask, using public transportation, spending time with others, avoiding contact with others, and going to work. Our estimates account for the age and sex of individuals and are generated for every county in the United States. We utilized multiple open-source datasets and United States Census data to produce these estimates. Multiple datasets were used for validation, showing our estimates demonstrated comparable accuracy and robustness. Our estimates aid in understanding human behavior dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and could be used to inform monthly or longer-term behavior in simulations of COVID-19. Moreover, the methods presented can be applied to other behaviors and features for future simulations of infectious disease.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Accelerating massively parallel hemodynamic models of coarctation of the aorta using neural networks

Comorbidities such as anemia or hypertension and physiological factors related to exertion can influence a patient’s hemodynamics and increase the severity of many cardiovascular diseases. Observing and quantifying associations between these factors and hemodynamics can be difficult due to the multitude of co-existing conditions and blood flow parameters in real patient data. Machine learning-driven, physics-based simulations provide a means to understand how potentially correlated conditions may affect a particular patient. Here, we use a combination of machine learning and massively parallel computing to predict the effects of physiological factors on hemodynamics in patients with coarctation of the aorta. We first validated blood flow simulations against in vitro measurements in 3D-printed phantoms representing the patient’s vasculature. We then investigated the effects of varying the degree of stenosis, blood flow rate, and viscosity on two diagnostic metrics – pressure gradient across the stenosis (ΔP) and wall shear stress (WSS) - by performing the largest simulation study to date of coarctation of the aorta (over 70 million compute hours). Using machine learning models trained on data from the simulations and validated on two independent datasets, we developed a framework to identify the minimal training set required to build a predictive model on a per-patient basis. We then used this model to accurately predict ΔP (mean absolute error within 1.18 mmHg) and WSS (mean absolute error within 0.99 Pa) for patients with this disease.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Genetic program activity delineates risk, relapse, and therapy responsiveness in multiple myeloma

Despite recent advancements in the treatment of multiple myeloma (MM), nearly all patients ultimately relapse and many become refractory to multiple lines of therapies. Therefore, we not only need the ability to predict which patients are at high risk for disease progression but also a means to understand the mechanisms underlying their risk. Here, we report a transcriptional regulatory network (TRN) for MM inferred from cross-sectional multi-omics data from 881 patients that predicts how 124 chromosomal abnormalities and somatic mutations causally perturb 392 transcription regulators of 8549 genes to manifest in distinct clinical phenotypes and outcomes. We identified 141 genetic programs whose activity profiles stratify patients into 25 distinct transcriptional states and proved to be more predictive of outcomes than did mutations. The coherence of these programs and accuracy of our network-based risk prediction was validated in two independent datasets. We observed subtype-specific vulnerabilities to interventions with existing drugs and revealed plausible mechanisms for relapse, including the establishment of an immunosuppressive microenvironment. Investigation of the t(4;14) clinical subtype using the TRN revealed that 16% of these patients exhibit an extreme-risk combination of genetic programs (median progression-free survival of 5 months) that create a distinct phenotype with targetable genes and pathways.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Active learning of a crystal plasticity flow rule from discrete dislocation dynamics simulations

Continuum-scale material deformation models, such as crystal plasticity (CP), can significantly enhance their predictive accuracy by incorporating input from lower-scale (i.e. mesoscale) models. The procedure to generate and extract the relevant information is however typically complex and ad hoc, involving decision and intervention by domain experts, leading to long development times. In this study, we develop a principled approach for calibration of continuum-scale models using lower scale information by representing a CP flow rule as a Gaussian process model. This representation allows for efficient parameter space exploration, guided by the uncertainty embedded in the model through a process known as Bayesian optimization (BO). We demonstrate a semi-autonomous BO loop which instantiates discrete dislocation dynamics simulations whose initial conditions are automatically chosen to optimize the uncertainty of a model CP flow rule. Our self-guided computational pipeline efficiently generated a dataset and corresponding model whose error, uncertainty, and physical feature sensitivities were validated with comparison to an independent dataset four times larger, demonstrating a valuable and efficient active learning implementation readily transferable to similar material systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Photovoltaic (PV) System Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Evaluation with Grid Support Function Valuation and Service Lifetime Estimation

Photovoltaic (PV) systems play a critical role in renewable energy resource grid integration, and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is commonly used to evaluate PV system feasibility in modern power grids. In this work, a revised PV system LCOE calculation model is derived to quantify the potential of LCOE reduction. Particularly, the grid support functions are valuated to offset the investment and operation costs of PV systems, which thereby reduces the LCOE. Meanwhile, PV system service lifetime is also estimated with the derived PV inverter reliability model, considering the critical components (i.e., semiconductor devices and capacitors). The case studies with field datasets are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the developed LCOE calculation model.

Zhao, Shijia↗

DOE OSTI2023

Burst Pressure Solutions of Thin and Thick-Walled Cylindrical Vessels

Pressure vessels (PVs) are widely used in the energy industry. Accurate burst pressure is critical to structural design and safe operation for both thin and thick-walled PVs. The traditional strength theories utilized a single-parameter material property, such as the yield stress or the ultimate tensile stress (UTS) to develop failure models for determining the yield or ultimate pressure carrying capacity in the PV design. The UTS-based Barlow formula is a typical burst pressure model developed from the Tresca strength theory that provides the basis for developing regulation rules and failure models for different industry design codes, such as ASME BPVC, ASME B31.3, and ASME B31G, among others. In order to reduce the conservatism of the Tresca strength model, ASME BPVC recently adapted failure models developed from the von Mises strength theory for the PV design and analysis. It has been commonly accepted that the burst pressure of pipelines depends on the UTS and strain hardening exponent, n, of the pipeline steel. An average shear stress yield theory was thus developed, and the Zhu-Leis solution of burst pressure was obtained as a function of UTS and n for thin-walled line pipes. Experiments showed that the Zhu-Leis solution provides an accurate, reliable prediction of burst pressure for defect-free thin-walled pipes. In order to extend the Zhu–Leis solution to thick-walled cylindrical PVs, this paper defined three new flow stresses, modified the traditional strength theories, and obtained three new burst pressure solutions that are valid for both thin and thick-walled cylindrical vessels. The proposed flow stresses are able to describe the tensile strength and the plastic flow response of PVs for a strain hardening steel. The associated strength theories were then developed in terms of the Tresca, von Mises, and Zhu-Leis yield criteria. From these new strength theories, three burst pressure solutions were obtained for thick-walled cylinders, where the von Mises solution is an upper bound prediction, the Tresca solution is a lower bound prediction, and the Zhu-Leis solution is an intermediate prediction of burst pressure for thick-walled cylinders. Lastly, the proposed burst pressure solutions were evaluated and validated by two large datasets of full-scale burst tests for thick-walled tubes and for thin-walled pipes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Structure-aware annotation of leucine-rich repeat domains

Protein domain annotation is typically done by predictive models such as HMMs trained on sequence motifs. However, sequence-based annotation methods are prone to error, particularly in calling domain boundaries and motifs within them. These methods are limited by a lack of structural information accessible to the model. With the advent of deep learning-based protein structure prediction, existing sequenced-based domain annotation methods can be improved by taking into account the geometry of protein structures. We develop dimensionality reduction methods to annotate repeat units of the Leucine Rich Repeat solenoid domain. The methods are able to correct mistakes made by existing machine learning-based annotation tools and enable the automated detection of hairpin loops and structural anomalies in the solenoid. The methods are applied to 127 predicted structures of LRR-containing intracellular innate immune proteins in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana and validated against a benchmark dataset of 172 manually-annotated LRR domains.

Xu, Boyan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Best Practices for Nuclear Experiment Data Preservation at Idaho National Laboratory: A Guide for Researchers and Reactor Operators

Preserving experimental data is essential for supporting advancements in nuclear science and ensuring the longevity of Idaho National Laboratory's contributions to reactor technology and safety. This report provides a comprehensive guide to best practices for experimental data management and preservation, focusing on standardized data formats, redundancy in storage, metadata documentation, and alignment with international standards. By following these recommendations, experimentalists and reactor operators can enhance the accessibility, reproducibility, and utility of critical datasets for regulatory review, validation computational methods, and future research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗