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DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced Control, Optimization, and Integration of Distributed Energy Applications (ECO-IDEA)

With support from the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) partnered with Xcel Energy, Schneider Electric, Varentec, and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to meet the goals of the Enabling Extreme Real-Time Grid Integration of Solar Energy (ENERGISE) program. This project developed and validated an innovative data-enhanced hierarchical control architecture that enables the efficient, reliable, resilient, and secure operation of future distribution systems with a high penetration of distributed energy resources like solar energy. The architecture enables a hybrid control approach where a centralized control layer is complemented by distributed control algorithms for solar inverters and autonomous control of grid edge devices. It is fully interoperable and includes all the cybersecurity aspects necessary for reliable and secure system operation. The hybrid approach can seamlessly integrate multiple voltage-regulation technologies, both at central and grid-edge levels, which enables reliable and efficient system operation in the face of unpredictable conditions. The overarching goal of the Eco-Idea project is to develop, validate, and deploy a unique and innovative Data-Enhanced Hierarchical Control (DEHC) architecture that comprehensively addresses the formidable challenges associated with proliferation of high penetration of distributed PV such as reverse power flows, transients from variability of PV systems, feeder load balancing, and voltage stability. These issues are exposing the weaknesses of existing grid operations and controls - including, but not limited to, lack of grid situational awareness, heuristic and slow-acting control actions, latency of control for emergency situations, and points of failure in communications. The proposed architecture will comprehensively resolve the deficiencies of current operational settings - where monitoring and control solutions proposed across industry and academia may not be interoperable and may not coexist in the same system - and will enable an efficient, reliable, resilient, and secure operation of future distribution systems with penetration of solar energy well beyond current limits. The DEHC architecture was developed and validated rigorously through hardware-in-loop simulations in the laboratory environment and deployed on the field.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

DOE COVID-19 Data Curation Effort: Overview of Initial Data Collection Coverage (March - June 2020)

During the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, major case reporting outlets quickly coalesced around two or three primary vendors. Johns Hopkins University and The New York Times were among the more prominent, and all were of great value to the nation, particularly during the uncertain early stages of the pandemic. They primarily focused on three major attributes: number of new cases, deaths, and recovery, but only at the state level. Recognizing that many states were reporting very detailed data sets (e.g., hospital beds) at a count level or finer, the ORNL Pandemic Modeling team embarked on a major data curation effort from March to June 2020 for the purpose of capturing this wealth of detailed data. The challenge of curating this data was daunting. The number of attributes reported by the states grew on almost on a weekly basis. States were routinely shifting their web tool strategies away from easily parsable HTML-based formatting to new Tableau and ArcGIS content. This growth in the sheer number of attributes combined with the unpredictable shifts in data format meant an aggressive and agile combination of automated scripting and manual scraping was required to capture new daily streams. To keep up, the team had to scale up staff and widen its approach for capture and storage. The DOE COVID-19 data collection effort resulted in over 11 million data points being collected, covering over 13,000 unique geographies and over 2,000 unique attributes that spanned predominantly from early March through the end of June 2020.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stress Intensity Thresholds for Development of Reliable Brittle Materials

Brittle material failure in high consequence systems can appear random and unpredictable at subcritical stresses. Gaps in our understanding of how structural flaws and environmental factors (humidity, temperature) impact fracture propagation need to be addressed to circumvent this issue. A combined experimental and computational approach composed of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, numerical modeling, and atomic force microscopy (AFM) has been undertaken to identify mechanisms of slow crack growth in silicate glasses. AFM characterization of crack growth as slow as 10 -13 m/s was observed, with some stepwise crack growth. MD simulations have identified the critical role of inelastic relaxation in crack propagation, including evolution of the structure during relaxation. A numerical model for the existence of a stress intensity threshold, a stress intensity below which a fracture will not propagate, was developed. This transferrable model for predicting slow crack growth is being incorporated into mission-based programs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multilevel Analysis, Design, and Modeling of Coupling Advanced Nuclear Reactors and Thermal Energy Storage in an Integrated Energy System

This report discusses the different options for coupling thermal energy storage (TES) systems to advanced nuclear power plants (A-NPPs) in order to enable flexible and hybrid plant operation. An advanced light-water reactor (A LWR), a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) and a liquid-metal fast reactor (LMFR) were selected as the initial use cases for demonstrating a thermally balanced energy storage coupling design for thermal power extraction. The models presented herein showcase several design considerations, focusing on optimal deployment methodologies for achieving steady-state and transient-state operation with minimum disruption to the nuclear power cycle. This first part of the study presents steady-state models developed using Aspen HYSYS®, with the thermal energy bypass for NPP-TES coupling being varied at up to 50%. The various components were sized using the Aspen Process Economic Analyzer (APEA) and Aspen Exchanger Design and Rating (EDR), when applicable. Cost functions from these models were developed using the latest publicly available data obtained from APEA V11. The TES-coupled A-NPP steady-state models and cost functions then provided a baseline for dynamic operation and process optimization by using Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tools. A stochastic optimization of the various energy storage systems coupled to the A-NPPs was then performed using the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and its dispatch optimization plugin, the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON). The signal processing and synthetic history capabilities of RAVEN were used to account for the unpredictable behavior of electricity markets. An autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model was used to analyze price signals from the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) market and were applied to the HERON analysis in order to optimize a system with the best economics. Transient modeling evaluation was then performed using Modelica models within the HYBRID repository, which was developed at INL for the Department of Energy Integrated Energy Systems program for the characterization of dynamic integrated system behavior and feedback. This includes evaluation of the TES-coupled A-LWR systems’ impact on physical and thermal system response during imposed system demands. Additional TES-coupled reactor types, coupling approaches, markets, and TES technologies will be evaluated in future work.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Harmonized Automatic Relay Mitigation of Nefarious Intentional Events (HARMONIE) - Special Protection Scheme (SPS)

The harmonized automatic relay mitigation of nefarious intentional events (HARMONIE) special protection scheme (SPS) was developed to provide adaptive, cyber-physical response to unpredictable disturbances in the electric grid. The HARMONIE-SPS methodology includes a machine learning classification framework that analyzes real time cyber-physical data and determines if the system is in normal conditions, cyber disturbance, physical disturbance, or cyber-physical disturbance. This classification then informs response, if needed and/or suitable, and included cyber-physical corrective actions. Beyond standard power system mitigations, a few novel approaches were developed that included a consensus algorithm-based relay voting scheme, an automated power system triggering condition and corrective action pairing algorithm, and a cyber traffic routing optimization algorithm. Both the classification and response techniques were tested within a newly integrated emulation environment composed of a real-time digital simulator (RTDS) and SCEPTRE™. This report details the HARMONIE-SPS methodology, highlighting both the classification and response techniques, and the subsequent testing results from the emulation environment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hierarchical Model-Free Transactive Control of Building Loads to Support Grid Services

Residential buildings consume 4.4 quads of electricity annually, approximately 37% of the total electricity consumption in the United States. This represents a vast resource that can be used for demand management and other ancillary services. This project aims to develop a robust, scalable hierarchical transactional control mechanism incorporating elements of model-free control (MFC) and game theory to harness buildings to provide ancillary services to the grid. This approach is being taken to address the challenges of incorporating traditional transactional control schemes into existing buildings. The challenges include small individual building sizes requiring aggregation of many buildings, unpredictable energy usage that makes model identification difficult, and satisfying the sensitive occupant comfort constraints. In the proposed approach, by separating the control mechanism into two layers above and below the load aggregator, MFC can be used below the aggregator to modulate flexible building loads in response to pricing signals with guaranteed performance. This allows the burden of identifying an accurate model of the system to be shifted to the above-aggregator layer, where fluctuations in individual building usage have less impact on predicted building system behavior. Game theory concepts can then be used to determine pricing curves and control signals among regional aggregators. Managing this control in a game-theoretic approach will allow us to build in financial incentives that increase customer engagement. Additionally, the usage of MFC necessitates less burdensome computational and communication requirements, thus, it is easily deployable on small, embedded devices. In a broader sense, developing a strategy capable of effectively incorporating residential and small commercial buildings will allow greater throughput of existing and emerging grid services in addition to future transactive energy grid management methods. Using MFC within a hierarchical control architecture will allow the shifting of existing forecasting challenges to an aggregate level, where dynamics are slower and more predictable. This will enable a smooth interface between the grid services requests of utilities and the reliable control required by participating buildings. MFC, which supports distributed control architecture, permits a scalable solution that can be deployed to neighborhood-size systems as well as individual buildings. This project focuses on three objectives: (1) developing the mathematical framework, algorithm toolkit, and software toolset of the two-layer transactive control testbed; (2) developing a scalable solution for application over many residential and small-size commercial buildings with sparse distributed communication; and (3) field testing and implementation on hardware of the control strategies developed in the previous two objectives. The research and development activities are focused and designed to be impactful within the relevant 2025 targets timeframe. An open-source control framework for exploiting variability and dispatchability of building loads will be delivered as the outcome of the project. This capability enables greater participation of loads in electricity markets and ancillary services that are both useful for the utility and financially beneficial for building owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

CRADA Number NFE-20-08292 with Quantum Lock Technologies LLC (CRADA Final Report)

At Quantum Lock Technologies, our mission is to use future-proof hardware and software to bridge the gap between physical access control and cyber security. Physical security includes access to doors, lockboxes/containers, and machinery/robots. Connecting physical access control to the cloud allows for remote detection, fast ledger updates, and mobile or remote access. However, this also opens physical security up to the world of cyber-attacks. At Quantum Lock, we use quantum random number generation to generate completely random and unpredictable digital keys to be used by connected equipment in a facility. This quantum technology is then paired with end-to-end encryption and a one-time-key communication protocol to ensure the highest level of security. Through the Innovation Crossroads program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, we have developed benchtop prototypes of our technology, connected with utility boards as our first target customers, and prepared for our first pilot with customers (target end of summer 2022).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence (NA-213) [Slides]

The risk of a terrorist group acquiring radioactive/nuclear materials requires NSDD's continuous efforts to build capacity of partner countries to deter, detect, and investigate acts of nuclear smuggling. Over the past 25 years, NSDD has and continues to deploy radiation detection equipment tailored to operational requirements with the goal of developing a layered, flexible, varied, and unpredictable nuclear detection architecture. An effective counter nuclear smuggling strategy considers both technical and operational challenges to develop the tools necessary to achieve the mission. LANL provides expert support to the NSDD mission to constantly improve and adapt to any future challenges.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2023

Backup Power Performance of Solar-plus-Storage Systems during Routine Power Interruptions: A Case Study Application of Berkeley Lab’s PRESTO Model

This technical brief estimates the expected performance of a solar photovoltaic and energy storage system (PVESS) for providing backup power during short-duration power interruption events, accounting for the unpredictable nature of those events. The analysis relies on the Power Reliability Event Simulation TOol (PRESTO), a publicly available model developed by Berkeley Lab to simulate the occurrence of short-duration power interruption events at the county-level. A separate storage dispatch model is then used to simulate PVESS operation and backup performance for each of the large number of interruption events produced by PRESTO. In performing this simulation, the analysis accounts for how the customer operates its battery on a day-to-day basis—in this case, we assume the battery is cycled each day in response to time-of-use rates—and how that, in turn, impacts the battery’s state of charge at the beginning of each interruption event. The analysis presented here is intended to demonstrate an application of the PRESTO model as well as to illustrate some of the key determinants of PVESS backup power performance during short-duration power interruption events. The analysis focuses initially on a typical single-family home in Maricopa County, Arizona, and includes a limited set of scenarios related to system sizing, backup power configuration, and whether the customer charges its battery storage system from the grid during normal operating conditions. The analysis also presents comparative results for two other counties, in Massachusetts (Middlesex) and California (Los Angeles), illustrating how regional differences in climate, interruption patterns, and retail rate structures can affect PVESS performance as a backup power source. In the conclusions, we highlight a number of other important considerations for evaluating PVESS backup power capabilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the Vertical Transport and Removal of Aerosols during Deep Convective Events

Atmospheric aerosols affect the global energy budget by scattering and absorbing sunlight (direct effects) and by changing the microphysical structure, lifetime, and coverage of clouds (indirect effects). Globally, the free troposphere is a major source of nucleation- and Aitken-mode aerosols due to the enhanced new particle formation rates at high altitudes. Recent studies have shown deep convective systems are capable of transporting these small aerosols from the free troposphere to the boundary layer by strong convective downdrafts and weaker downward motions in the stratiform regions. These vertically transported aerosols can grow into cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and play a significant role in the global climate. During the deep convective processes, existing accumulation-mode aerosols that act as coagulation sinks of smaller particles are also removed by wet scavenging. Compared to the vertical transport of these particles by entrainment mixing, which is slower but more prevalent, the deep convective downdraft processes may be more rapid and efficient in the vertical transport of aerosols. However, most of the current climate models do not include this mechanism as a source of CCN, mainly because the frequency of deep convective events varies significantly with geographic location and thus their contributions to CCN are unpredictable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Togiak Heat Recovery Project

Togiak is one of hundreds of Alaskan Native, roadless communities only accessible by boat or plane. This project constructed a heat recovery (HR) system which pipes what was previously wasted heat generated at the power plant to four nearby community buildings. The power plant houses diesel fired generators which provide electricity to the community. This project designed and constructed the system that recovers a portion of the heat produced by the generators and pipes it to the end-user buildings. The heat recovery system integrates with each building’s internal heating system. The objective is to significantly reduce the heating costs in these four community facilities. By reducing the energy use and cost in these community facilities, the local economy is strengthened by keeping the funds inside the community that were formerly used to purchase imported fuel, thereby multiplying the impact of the energy cost reduction. Energy independence is enhanced and energy resilience is increased by reducing dependence on long fuel supply chains which are easily interrupted by unpredictable natural and man-made disasters such as earthquakes, climate change, road rail and sea accidents, etc.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Approximate Entropy Analysis for Nonlinear Beam Dynamics

In this paper, we applied an approximate entropy (ApEn) analysis to nonlinear beam dynamics. Due to the presence of strong nonlinear magnets, the degree of chaos in beam motion gradually increases proportionally with its amplitude. Such chaos can be quantitatively characterized with ApEn of beam turn-by-turn readings. ApEn analysis is a technique used to quantify the amount of regularity and the unpredictability of fluctuations with respect to time-series data. The ApEn, when applied as a chaos indicator, can then be used for nonlinear lattice optimization and analysis. The National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II) electron storage ring lattice was used as an example of a real-world application of our technique.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Testing Paired Neural Network Models for Aftershock Identification

Aftershock sequences are a burden to real-time seismic monitoring. Cross-correlation can be used because aftershocks exhibit similar waveforms, but the method is computationally expensive. Deep learning may be an alternative, as it is computationally efficient, but great attention to training and testing is required in order to trust that the model can generalize to new aftershock sequences. This is problematic for aftershock sequences, because large-magnitude earthquakes are unpredictable and are globally widespread. Here, we test several paired neural network (PNN) models trained on a augmented (noise-added) earthquake dataset, to determine whether they can be generalized to process real aftershock sequences. Two aftershock datasets that were originally detected by cross-correlation and subsequently validated by an expert analyst were used. We found that current PNN models struggle to generalize to aftershock sequences. However, we identify approaches to improve training future PNN models and believe that improvements may be achieved by transfer learning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Field Evaluation of the Caney Shale as an Emerging Unconventional Play, Southern Oklahoma

The Mississippian-age Caney Shale is an emerging unconventional oil and gas (UOG) resource play in the southern Midcontinent and is prospective in the Anadarko, Ardmore, Marietta and western Arkoma basins. This play is enigmatic in that time equivalent Fayetteville Shale in the eastern Arkoma basin and Barnett Shale in the Ft. Worth Basin are major unconventional plays, whereas Caney Shale production is sparse and unpredictable (Cardott, 2017). In the Anadarko, Ardmore and Marietta basins, the Caney Shale is in the oil window, but its resource potential has not been adequately assessed. The Caney reservoir is about 60-300 m thick, is rich in total organic carbon, contains a large oil resource base, and has a strong natural gas drive; however, development has been hampered by high clay content and reactivity of the formation with water. The main objective of this initial four-year research project was to address these issues by establishing a Caney Shale Field Laboratory in the Ardmore Basin of southern Oklahoma to (a) conduct a comprehensive field characterization (b) perform field experiments, and (c) validate cost-effective technologies that will lead to a comprehensive and efficient development strategy plan for Caney Shale.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bill Savings vs. Backup Power: Evaluating operational tradeoffs for home solar+storage systems [Slides]

Adoption of residential solar photovoltaic+energy storage systems (PVESS) is driven by both bill savings opportunities and customer demand for backup power. Prior work by this team (Gorman et al., 2022; Gorman et al., 2023) explored PVESS backup power capabilities during long-duration power interruptions (e.g., due to severe weather events), when customers are assumed to be able to anticipate the event and charge their batteries in advance. In many cases, however, power interruptions are unpredictable (and often relatively short); for those types of events, a customer will typically set its battery to maintain some minimum capacity in reserve in case of an interruption, which reduces the capacity available for managing utility bills. This study evaluates this operational tradeoff to help customers and installers configure backup reserve settings, and to inform decision-making more generally about the customer value of backup power services compared to utility bill savings. This study utilizes Berkeley Lab’s PRESTO tool to produce stochastic simulations of (predominantly short-duration) power interruption events, and builds on an earlier case-study demonstrating PVESS backup performance during short-duration interruptions (Baik et al., 2023).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantum Lock Technologies: Innovation Crossroads Final Report

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design, Optimization, and Control of Floating Offshore Wind Farms for Optimal Energy Production (Final report)

The uncertainty and irregularity of ocean waves and the ocean environment is a major factor in the development of commercial scale floating wind turbines as the operation of floating structures in such an environment can lead to irregular and unpredictable loading, fatigue, and ultimately a reduction in the operational life of the turbine system which affects energy production over the lifetime of the turbine. Control solutions that can limit float motions and mitigate stressful events on the structure become essential for extending lifetime and limiting the operational uncertainty of a floating wind turbine. Digital twins are computational replicas of physical systems that operate in parallel with the operation of the physical system. Given advanced knowledge of a systems input, digital twins have the ability to predict the behavior of a system in advance, which can be valuable in the control of that system. In this project, we developed and assessed potential digital twin models developed in house and openly available (OpenFast) for use in the real time control of the six degree of freedom response motions of a floating wind turbine in ocean waves. Coupling these models with near-field real time irregular sea surface (wve) measurement/sensings and prediction models, we used the digital twin to predict how the floating turbine will respond to the incoming waves. Applying this information to a motion control system of the float, one can limit and control float motions to prevent undesirable loading events/large angular motions, thus increasing system life and ultimately contributing to optimizing energy production. Due to the computational intensity of operating a digital twin in real time, we investigated the use of artificial intelligence techniques to speed-up the processes of the digital twin, as well as the wave reconstruction/prediction models. Model tank testing at the University of Rhode Island and University of Maine both validated and demonstrated the developed techniques on simple float geometries and a scale model of the NREL 15 MW reference turbine.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reinforcement Learning for In-Spill Optimization of the Mu2e Resonant Extraction: Compensating Non-Stationarity

We present design considerations and challenges for the fast machine learning component of a third-order resonant beam extraction regulation system being commissioned to deliver steady beam rates to the mu2e experiment at Fermilab. Dedicated quadrupoles drive the tune toward the 29/3 resonance each spill, extracting beam at kV multiwire septa. The overall Spill Regulation System consists of (1) a “slow” process using ~100-spill averages to adjust the base quad ramp infrequently, (2) a feedforward harmonic content compensator, and (3) the “fast” ML agent reacting during each ongoing spill with on-the-fly additive corrections to the sum of (1) and (2). We have demonstrated improved beam-rate steadying for a fast ML agent compared to a PID controller using a quasi-physical spill simulation, and demonstrated distillation of that simulation into a predictive surrogate model. Current work includes a data-and-training pipeline to generate data-aware surrogates with real-world dynamics, even as the dynamics shift unpredictably. The surrogates are to act as RL environments against which to train our fast ML control agents before deploying them on FPGA in the live system. Further current efforts focus on modeling and controlling beam loss around the storage ring, understanding additional available hardware inputs to the model, and the interplay of these with beam-steadying performance.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗