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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9

Divergence Reduction in Monte Carlo Neutron Transport with On-GPU Asynchronous Scheduling

While Monte Carlo Neutron Transport (MCNT) is near-embarrasingly parallel, the effectively unpredictable lifetime of neutrons can lead to divergence when MCNT is evaluated on GPUs. Divergence is the phenomenon of adjacent threads in a warp executing different control flow paths; on GPUS, it reduces performance because each work group may only execute one path at a time. The process of Thread Data Remapping (TDR) resolves these discrepancies by moving data across hardware such that data in the same warp will be processed through similar paths. A common issue among prior implementations of TDR is the synchronous nature of its remapping and processing cycles, which exhaustively sort data produced by prior processing passes and exhaustively evaluate the sorted data. In another work, we defined a method of remapping data through an asynchronous scheduler which allows for work to be stored in shared memory and deferred arbitrarily until that work is a viable option for low-divergence evaluation. This article surveys a wider set of cases, with the goal of characterizing performance trends across a more comprehensive set of parameters. These parameters include cross sections of scattering/capturing/fission, use of implicit capture, source neutron counts, simulation time spans, and tuned memory allocations. Across these cases, we have recorded minimum and average execution times, as well as a heuristically tuned near-optimal memory allocation size for both synchronous and asynchronous scheduling. Across the collected data, it is shown that the asynchronous method is faster and more memory efficient in the majority of cases, and that it requires less tuning to achieve competitive performance.

Computer Science↗

EMOS (Energy Management Optimization System) [SWR-21-46]

EMOS software performs a real-time hierarchal optimal control for energy systems like multi-port electric vehicles charging site with distributed energy resources (DERs) and energy storage systems (ESSs). It gathers information in real-time from electric vehicles, power grid, and DERs, solves a multi-objective energy management optimization problem, and output setpoint for chargers, ESS converters, DERs converters, and grid converters. The software incorporates a novel integration of two control tasks: a) An Energy Management Optimization (EMO), which is the brain of EMOS controller that gathers information in real-time from EVs [e.g., battery size, state-of-charge (SOC), desired SOC, and charge acceptance curve], grid (e.g., electricity price, allowed feeder capacity, ramp rate limit, and reactive power), and DERs (e.g., prediction for solar generation for PV systems). It solves a control optimization problem in real-time to find optimal setpoint for ESSs power dispatch, EVs charging rate, and grid inverters. The objectives are to (1) minimize the charging cost considering grid energy, demand charges, and battery energy, (2) minimize charging time to meet fast charging criterion, (3) keep high energy level on ESSs at the end of an operating period, while satisfying constraints related to grid, EVs, and power converters. b) Real-Time Energy Management System (RT-EMS) is a rule-based algorithm that has faster response than EMO. It receives optimal setpoint from EMO and actual measurements from the system and modify the setpoint to compensate for any fast disturbance in the system, until a new optimum solution is received. Fast disturbances may include vehicle connect/disconnect, unpredicted variation in DERs profiles, variation in grid voltage, errors in PV generation prediction, and others. In addition, RT-EMS regulates voltage at point of common coupling (PCC) by managing reactive power of grid converters.

Mohamed, Ahmed↗

Long-term Multimodal Recording Reveals Epigenetic Adaptation Routes in Dormant Breast Cancer Cells

Patients with estrogen receptor–positive breast cancer receive adjuvant endocrine therapies (ET) that delay relapse by targeting clinically undetectable micrometastatic deposits. Yet, up to 50% of patients relapse even decades after surgery through unknown mechanisms likely involving dormancy. To investigate genetic and transcriptional changes underlying tumor awakening, we analyzed late relapse patients and longitudinally profiled a rare cohort treated with long-term neoadjuvant ETs until progression. Next, we developed an in vitro evolutionary study to record the adaptive strategies of individual lineages in unperturbed parallel experiments. Our data demonstrate that ETs induce nongenetic cell state transitions into dormancy in a stochastic subset of cells via epigenetic reprogramming. Single lineages with divergent phenotypes awaken unpredictably in the absence of recurrent genetic alterations. Targeting the dormant epigenome shows promising activity against adapting cancer cells. Overall, this study uncovers the contribution of epigenetic adaptation to the evolution of resistance to ETs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

How Time Inefficient and Uncertain are Paratransit Trips Compared to Car Trips

The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) stipulates that paratransit mobility be comparable to public transit. However, with just under 5% of the population relying on public transportation, transit is not a representative benchmark. To highlight this inequality, we compare trip times by paratransit to counterfactual car-based travel. Using 2.5 years of demand data from the Denver Regional Transportation District's Access-a-Ride service, we compare paratransit trip times to counterfactual car-based trips for the same origin-destination pairs, controlling for various trip characteristics. Compared to car travel, the findings indicate high variability and uncertainty associated with paratransit trip times. For the same origin-destination pairs, the mean paratransit trip time is almost twice that of the mean car travel time, with a standard deviation for paratransit trip time fourfold that of the standard deviation for car trip time. For perspective, traveling an average of 10 mi during the 7-8 a.m. morning peak can take about 16 min by car with almost no variability, while that same trip can take an average of 25 min by paratransit, with 5% of trips being outside the 95% confidence interval and thus unpredictable. Paratransit trip time inefficiency tends to be particularly worse for females; older adults; those making trips between 9 and 11 a.m.; cash-paying customers; those making shorter trips; and those traveling during inclement weather, including cold temperatures. These findings suggest a need to re-assess using public transit as a benchmark for paratransit supply as regulated by the ADA.

accessible transportation and mobility↗

Non-circular electron beam spot welds in stainless steel alloys

Circularly symmetric-shaped spot welds are desirable for welding applications as they relate to heat and fluid flow conditions in the melt pool with predictable weld penetrations and repeatable results. Non-circular spot welds on the other hand result in undesirable and unpredictable weld penetrations or non-bridging of the liquid melt pool across the joint. Two known causes for non-circular melt pools occur when welding dissimilar metals, or when welding with skewed electron or laser beams that are not perpendicular to the surface. A largely unexplored additional factor, shown here, is an asymmetric power density distribution within the beam that can create non-circular melt pools even though the beam dimensions are much smaller than the melt pool itself.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Planning decentralized urban renewable energy systems using algal cultivation for closed-loop and resilient communities

To tackle climate challenges, communities need to harvest renewable energy and resources on site locally to close the loops for enhancing the resilience of communities facing unpredictable and uncertain future changes. A decentralization planning of urban renewable energy systems is proposed by treating urban waste streams and producing biomass through applying algal biotechnology. When applying algal technology as a renewable and decentralized energy source in urban systems, the overall performance can vary by levels of urban nutrients, solar and CO 2 resources, and the transportation cost when considering its application to different urban densities, urban form, and the spatial scale of urban settings. This research explores three potential impacts on the algal system’s energy performance: (1) urban density, (2) urban form in different contexts, and (3) spatial scale. The research examines the impacts by testing urban settings given in actual contexts in Atlanta, Georgia, USA. Four neighborhoods representing the high-density urban, mid-density urban, mixed suburban, and typical suburban areas are investigated. The density-scale–performance relationships are explored through testing different urban forms of neighborhoods in both hypothetical and actual neighborhood settings. A GIS-based model is developed to estimate the overall energy performance of the decentralized renewable energy system in urban environments. Results show that the energy performance is positive mainly for high-density urban neighborhoods with small-to-medium scales, up to 0.36 MJ per ton of municipal solid wastes for actual settings and 0.37 MJ for hypothetical cases. Neighborhoods with higher density have higher energy performance while up scaling has negative effects on the energy performance with a low degree of significance. Optimal scales are found as a 1-km radius in real test beds and 1.3 km in hypothetical settings, in which the results show trade-offs between scaling effects in the system efficiency gain and the transportation cost increase.

Quan, Steven Jige↗

Dynamic computational optical fringe mitigation in tunable laser absorption spectroscopy

In optical spectroscopic systems where unwanted optical scattering cannot be eliminated, Fabry-Pérot etalons cause unpredictable changes in the spectral background. Frequent system calibration is then required to maintain the desired measurement accuracy, which presents a major limitation to the spectrometer. We introduce a computational approach to mitigate the adverse effects of optical fringing without hardware modifications. Motivated by experimental observations of complicated fringe behaviors, we simplify the problem by decomposing the fringe background into component etalons that can be addressed according to their individual characteristics. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated on a silicon photonic methane sensor, where accurate measurements of methane concentration are obtained from spectral data strongly affected by optical fringes.

Teng, Chu C. (ORCID:0000000152744835)↗

Machine learning of factors for improving oyster hatchery production

Oyster aquaculture and restoration in the Chesapeake Bay are vital, yet hatcheries frequently struggle with inconsistent larval growth and sudden mass mortality events. Unpredictable disruptions in larval production cause large economic losses, represent a perceived risk to growers, and impede industry expansion. To better understand associations between production yield and its potential predictors, we applied machine learning (random forest, and neural network) and statistical (generalized additive model) models to a comprehensive dataset of environmental, water quality, and operational parameters from a Maryland oyster hatchery, aiming to identify key yield predictors and develop a robust forecasting tool. We used recursive Boruta algorithm for variable selection, pinpointing critical predictors, and employed cross-validation to fine-tune model settings. Shapley value analysis offered crucial insights into model interpretations, highlighting week number, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, salinity, turbidity, and fecundity as primary drivers of yield variability. For low-yield cases, salinity-related variables were particularly important. Our findings provide an early warning system for potential production downturns, empowering hatchery operators to make data-driven decisions for optimizing water conditions, feeding schedules, and broodstock management. By boosting predictability and efficiency, this research directly supports economic stability of the oyster industry and ecological health of the Chesapeake Bay.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

Economic Impact of Permitting Timelines on Produced Geothermal Power

Despite having a large geothermal power potential in the United States, only a small fraction has been developed for power generation. Various barriers, including technical, financial, and regulatory permit delays, are attributed to lower contribution of geothermal energy in the national grid. Unpredictable environmental reviews and permitting timelines are some of the non-technical barriers that can cause delays in geothermal exploration and utilization plans. This study shows that the geothermal permitting timelines can vary from six months to several years, depending on the presence or absence of biological resources, cultural resources, and sensitive environmental issues at the project site. The potential impacts of these permit barriers can range from investors abandoning geothermal development to making the product (i.e., electricity) more expensive and uncompetitive.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The genotype-phenotype landscape of an allosteric protein

Allostery is a fundamental biophysical mechanism that underlies cellular sensing, signaling, and metabolism. Yet a quantitative understanding of allosteric genotype-phenotype relationships remains elusive. Here, we report the large-scale measurement of the genotype-phenotype landscape for an allosteric protein: the lac repressor from Escherichia coli , LacI. Using a method that combines long-read and short-read DNA sequencing, we quantitatively measure the dose-response curves for nearly 10 5 variants of the LacI genetic sensor. The resulting data provide a quantitative map of the effect of amino acid substitutions on LacI allostery and reveal systematic sequence-structure-function relationships. We find that in many cases, allosteric phenotypes can be quantitatively predicted with additive or neural-network models, but unpredictable changes also occur. For example, we were surprised to discover a new band-stop phenotype that challenges conventional models of allostery and that emerges from combinations of nearly silent amino acid substitutions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DEEP Solar: Data DrivEn Modeling and Analytics for Enhanced System Layer ImPlementation

Realizing the SETO 2030 mission of reducing solar energy costs to 3-5 c/kWh will require innovative enabling research on effective, cost-efficient integration of local PV within distribution systems. However, the intermittent and variable nature of PVs compels operators to impose conservative hosting capacity constraints. Given the extremely high variability of (intermittent and unpredictable) solar energy generation, relaxing the capacity constraints (which are currently around 15%) and achieving 100% or greater integration of renewables will require a fundamental transformation of the power grid via the utilization of exponentially larger amounts of AMI enabled fine-grained data. To address the challenges in increasing the penetration of renewable energy based DERs, this project envisions an Enhanced System Layer (ESL) at the distribution network level that is reliable, cost-effective and scalable to millions of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs)/devices. This includes developing: 1) Transformative and highly scalable machine learning based predictive analytics tools that plug into distribution system planning and provide real-time situational awareness at the distribution level for short and long-term operational planning. The tools will be built using novel data-driven energy models of millions of active nodes with AMI, 2) Adaptive stochastic analysis and optimization algorithms for real-time grid operations, 3) Dynamic Scenario Analysis using parallel Cloudenabled implementations with < 1 minute computational cycle times.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Virtual Metering for Monitoring Building Energy Consumption

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has standard metering requirements of commercial buildings for optimizing energy performance. The guiding principles are to continuously track and optimize energy performance and install building-level meters for electricity, natural gas, and steam. Some buildings at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) have physical submeters monitoring their energy consumption, but these meters have proven to be unreliable. And, in most cases, replacing them has proven to be a slow process. Installing new submeters also requires a temporary lockout of the circuit on which they are being installed. Many buildings at LANL contain laboratories with ongoing experiments or data centers, which makes an equipment power outage nearly impossible to plan. This inability to plan power outages results in long-term submeter failures. Although most submeters are eventually replaced, failures lead to missing consumption data for some unpredictable, extended time. A building automation system (BAS) is a system that provides control and monitoring on a building to maintain the operational performance of the building and occupancy comfort. Many buildings at LANL currently have a BAS, and all new renovations and installs will include installing a BAS if one does not already exist. The intended purpose for a BAS is primarily to monitor the health and efficiency of a building; however, it is also possible to calculate equipment power and energy consumption using BAS information. This project aims to use virtual meters to monitor building energy consumption as a cost-effective and minimally labor-intensive alternative to installing physical submeters. The fault detection and diagnostics tool, SkySpark, provides a centralized database for all the data from the various BAS that are active at LANL. This data includes the information that is needed to create virtual meters for heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in most buildings, including heating and cooling loads. 9 This report begins with a detailed summary of the project, including the reasoning, procedure, and results. The specific processes of creating the various virtual meters are then identified. Then the limitations are discussed. And, lastly, the results and future potential are presented.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Report of the Condition of a General Electric Transportation Systems Gearbox

Wind power plant operations and maintenance (O&M) costs remain an appreciable contributor to the overall cost of wind energy. Premature of wind turbine gearboxes failures are often a result of abrasive wear, micropitting, scuffing, white-etch cracks, and macropitting issues. Micropitting is a fatigue phenomenon that occurs in Hertzian contacts in both gears and rolling-element bearings that operate in mixed or micro elastohydrodynamic lubrication regimes. Micropitting is influenced by and manifests itself in many different ways depending on operating conditions such as load, speed and operating temperature, and on factors such as gear geometry and accuracy, tooth flank roughness, percentage of tooth sliding, and lubricant composition. Despite much research by many investigators, micropitting remains complex, unpredictable, and difficult to control and remains a problem in wind turbine gearboxes. The purpose of this report is to document and describe the micropitting damage observed in a wind turbine gearbox, thereby facilitating further analysis and examination in future reports.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Quantum Random Number Generator (QRNG)

The Los Alamos QRNG is a hardware-based high-performance Random Number Generator capable of generating 200 Mbit/s or more of true random numbers. The device harvests entropy from fluctuations in an optical source that arise from quantum mechanical properties of light. These quantum effects are irreducibly random; the resulting numbers are unpredictable and beyond the influence of any adversary. Qrypt, Inc., launched in 2017, has amassed multiple quantum entropy sources to create high-quality random keys at scale. The company is engaging with Los Alamos through license and a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement to facilitate the transition of QRNG technology and deploy the technology into the marketplace.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modeling Noise: Paths toward AI-Enabled Stochastic Earth System Models and Parameterizations

Some of the key challenges in Earth system prediction arise from an uncertain representation of unpredictable natural variability, across time and space scales. This variability, hereafter referred to as noise, represents the quantity against which the strength of a signal of interest is measured to assess predictability. Underestimating or overestimating this noise in Earth system models can lead to issues ranging between overconfidence in an erroneous prediction and a lack thereof in an otherwise accurate one. Noise is part of the physical processes in the Earth system and can amplify or damp a signal of interest in a complex manner that is not systematically characterized. Specifically, while there has been significant progress in our understanding of multiscale interactions among known modes of variability (potentially predictable signals), how these are impacted by the noise is not clear. Recent effort toward stochastic parametrization schemes that provide a representation of noise due to uncertain sub-grid processes in climate models (Berner et al., 2017 and references therein) has shown promise not only in reducing biases and improving probabilistic prediction but also in improving the representation of natural variability in the model toward what is observed. However, today’s standard schemes for stochastic parametrization are still simplistic as they do not take the state of the atmosphere into account (other than by the use of multiplicative noise for model tendencies). Furthermore they require hand-tuning and trial-and-error testing for the magnitude of the added noise, which is difficult in a chaotic system that is as complex as the Earth system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Towards A Geo-Data Science Method for Assessing Rare Earth Element and Critical Mineral Occurrences in Coal and Other Sedimentary Systems

While preliminary analyses of data from open-source resources (Ekmann, 2012) show promising concentrations of REE in individual coal samples from a number of sites and basins in the U.S., other sparse data for REE in domestic coal-related strata suggest that many occurrences are low, “subeconomic” concentrations. At present, there is no method for systematically assessing potential sedimentary occurrences of REE. However, the geologic processes responsible for REE occurrences in coal-related strata are systematic; the unpredictability of REE resources in coal-related strata is due to poorly quantified spatial resource trends and the lack of an exploration method tailored to these resources. Thus, there exists a need for a systematic assessment approach that incorporates knowledge of geological variation in the mechanisms of REE enrichment within coal basins to help minimize geologic uncertainty and reduce commercial exploration risk.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

5.5 Hybrid Additively Manufactured Tooling for Large Composite Structures

This program sought to lower tooling costs for tightly toleranced, large composite aerostructures by using large format additive manufacturing (LFAM). LFAM tooling has the potential to lower tooling costs, but the large and unpredictable thermal expansion of polymer-based tooling did not previously allow for the production of large structures made with high performance resins requiring 350 deg F cures. Geometric tolerance issues and demolding concerns continued to arise. The proposed approach for this work was to print a thin shell via additive manufacturing that would be used as a scaffold for a conventional tooling prepreg. The prepreg would be laminated and cured onto both sides of the shell, creating a tool with a sandwich construction. The cured prepreg would then be machined and serve as the tooling surface. In addition to providing a clean, pit-free surface, the prepreg stiffness and low thermal expansion would physically restrain the AM shell and prevent it from expanding during thermal cycling, thus preventing any geometric mismatch between the nominal and actual part dimensions. A stair-step approach was taken to prove out this approach. Coupon level testing was done to ensure a good bond was possible between the AM shell and the tooling prepreg. These samples were also used to determine the amount of prepreg needed to achieve the desired coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE). The project team than progressed to a subscale tool measuring two feet in length. The geometry used was a C-section spar from Airbus’ Wing of Tomorrow program. A hybrid tool, using the AM shell and tooling prepreg, was made, and a composite part was fabricated with the tool. Dimensional scans of the tool and part indicated that the desired CTE was achieved with the tool. A second tooling approach was taken to reduce risk. In this approach, a subscale tool of the same geometry as previously mentioned was created, but the tool was entirely constructed of the tooling prepreg. AM was used to print a “master” that was then used to fabricate the tool by creating a splash off of the master using tooling prepreg. The innovation was that the master was not machined, but rather, was used right off the printer after a small amount of surface preparation. Removing this machining step was thought to make this approach economically viable when compared to conventional master fabrication. As before, the tool was used to fabricate a part and tested for dimensional accuracy. For the conclusion of the program, a ten-foot tool was created using the hybrid tool approach. The geometry also came from the Airbus C-section spar previously mentioned. Some difficulty arose in accurately predicting the geometry of the tool after laminating the tooling prepreg, resulting in multiple material additions and a tool geometry change. A part was fabricated in an autoclave using the tool. A cost savings of almost 50% was achieved on the subscale tool in both the hybrid and master-style tool, but the savings dropped considerably as the tool length increased in the full-scale tool. Given the less than expected cost savings and added complexity of the tool construction, it is suggested that the master-style tool is best for immediate commercialization for larger tools (although it may be appropriate for smaller, table-top size tools). Since its construction is very similar to conventionally made composite tooling, there already exists a broad supply chain for building the tool, and project partner Additive Engineering Solutions (AES) is well acquainted with the design and build of the AM master needed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Verification of Data-Driven Models of Physical Phenomena using Interpretable Approximation

Machine-learned models, specifically neural networks, are increasingly used as “closures” or “constitutive models” in engineering simulators to represent fine-scale physical phenomena that are too computationally expensive to resolve explicitly. However, these neural net models of unresolved physical phenomena tend to fail unpredictably and are therefore not used in mission-critical simulations. In this report, we describe new methods to authenticate them, i.e., to determine the (physical) information content of their training datasets, qualify the scenarios where they may be used and to verify that the neural net, as trained, adhere to physics theory. We demonstrate these methods with neural net closure of turbulent phenomena used in Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show the types of turbulent physics extant in our training datasets, and, using a test flow of an impinging jet, identify the exact locations where the neural network would be extrapolating i.e., where it would be used outside the feature-space where it was trained. Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models, we also generate explanations of the neural net (à la Local Interpretable Model agnostic Explanations) at prototypes placed in the training data and compare them with approximate analytical models from turbulence theory. Finally, we verify our findings by reproducing them using two different methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗