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At least 163 records · Page 9

Future Sterile Neutrino Searches in NOvA using the Booster Neutrino Beam

The NOvA experiment’s most recent search for eV-scale sterile neutrinos under a 3+1 model simultaneously analyses muon neutrino and neutral current datasets from the NuMI beam at it's Near ($\sim$1 km baseline) and Far (810 km baseline) detectors to look for oscillations consistent with a sterile neutrino. The analysis is systematically limited in the region of parameter space where $\Delta m^{2}_{41} $>~1 eV^2$. This region of parameter space is preferred by sterile neutrino interpretations of current experimental anomalies and so improving sensitivity here is high-priority. The Near Detector’s position on-site at Fermilab means that it is also able to observe neutrinos from a second neutrino beam, the BNB, 160 mrad off-axis. This data probes a similar L/E to the NuMI data, but using a different neutrino energy, and being subject to different beam-related uncertainties. Jointly analysing these datasets can help us to constrain our systematic uncertainties, improving our sensitivity. NOvA has been taking BNB data since 2015, but has not yet analysed these data. This poster will present first sensitivities from the combined analysis of the BNB and NuMI datasets.

Lister, Adam [U. Wisconsin, Madison (main)]↗

Regression Convolutional Neural Network for Energy Estimation in NOvA

Regression Convolutional Neural Network for Energy Estimation in NOvA" Abstract: "NOvA (NuMI Off-Axis $\nu_e$ Appearance) is a long baseline neutrino experiment designed to measure neutrino oscillations over a distance of 810 km. NOvA employs a near and far detector to observe $\nu_\mu$ disappearance and $\nu_e$ appearance of neutrinos produced by the NuMI beam at Fermilab. Energy reconstruction is critical for precise measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters and cross sections, which are functions of neutrino energy. Energy estimation remains difficult due to the complexity of detector response and final state particle kinematics. We present a regression-based convolutional neural network (CNN) method that reconstructs neutrino and lepton energies based on raw pixel inputs for NOvA. The trained model is able to reconstruct event energy for different interaction modes and complex final states containing leptons and hadrons. Studies of regression CNN networks show improved energy resolution and reduced sensitivity to calibration scale uncertainties relative to traditional kinematics-based energy reconstruction techniques. The results demonstrate the potential of the regression CNN method for neutrino physics analyses by improving on standard kinematics-based reconstruction.

Zhao, Larry [UC, Irvine (main)]↗

Economics of Crop Rotations With and Without Carinata for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production in the SE United States

In 2019, the aviation sector in the United States emitted 255 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, i.e., about five percent of the total domestic CO 2 emissions from the energy sector. The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) derived from carinata (Brassica carinata) could reduce CO 2 emissions of the aviation sector in the United States. Therefore, it is important to estimate changes in farm economics with and without carinata for ascertaining its production feasibility. In this context, the current study first assesses a combination of 12 popular rotations of corn, cotton, peanut, and soybean with winter crops of winter wheat and carinata in South Georgia over 4 years. Then, the net present values (NPVs) of 292 feasible cropping systems over 4 years are calculated. Finally, this study develops a risk model for ascertaining the probability distributions of NPVs for selected cropping systems subject to uncertainties related to prices and yields of summer and winter crops. Carinata in the corn-corn-soybean rotation has the highest NPV ($\$$2,996/ha). The least risky rotation is cotton-cotton-peanut, with a 58.9% probability of a positive NPV. Carinata can decrease the risk level of crop rotations by 8.1%, only if a contract price of $\$$440.9/t is offered. Therefore, a risk averse, risk neutral, or risk acceptant farmer can potentially include carinata in the rotation. Overall, carinata would increase the profitability of farm operations and decrease risk in the SE United States, and therefore, a high likelihood exists, that farmers would adopt it for meeting the growing demand for SAF in the United States.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Ocean Energy Systems Wave Energy Modelling Task: Modelling, Verification and Validation of Wave Energy Converters

The International Energy Agency Technology Collaboration Programme for Ocean Energy Systems (OES) initiated the OES Wave Energy Conversion Modelling Task, which focused on the verification and validation of numerical models for simulating wave energy converters (WECs). The long-term goal is to assess the accuracy of and establish confidence in the use of numerical models used in design as well as power performance assessment of WECs. To establish this confidence, the authors used different existing computational modelling tools to simulate given tasks to identify uncertainties related to simulation methodologies: (i) linear potential flow methods; (ii) weakly nonlinear Froude–Krylov methods; and (iii) fully nonlinear methods (fully nonlinear potential flow and Navier–Stokes models). This article summarizes the code-to-code task and code-to-experiment task that have been performed so far in this project, with a focus on investigating the impact of different levels of nonlinearities in the numerical models. Two different WECs were studied and simulated. The first was a heaving semi-submerged sphere, where free-decay tests and both regular and irregular wave cases were investigated in a code-to-code comparison. The second case was a heaving float corresponding to a physical model tested in a wave tank. We considered radiation, diffraction, and regular wave cases and compared quantities, such as the WEC motion, power output and hydrodynamic loading.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Multifrequency radar observations of clouds and precipitation including the G-band

Abstract. Observations collected during the 25 February 2020 deployment of the Vapor In-Cloud Profiling Radar at the Stony Brook Radar Observatory clearly demonstrate the potential of G-band radars for cloud and precipitation research, something that until now was only discussed in theory. The field experiment, which coordinated an X-, Ka-, W- and G-band radar, revealed that the Ka–G pairing can generate differential reflectivity signal several decibels larger than the traditional Ka–W pairing underpinning an increased sensitivity to smaller amounts of liquid and ice water mass and sizes. The observations also showed that G-band signals experience non-Rayleigh scattering in regions where Ka- and W-band signal do not, thus demonstrating the potential of G-band radars for sizing sub-millimeter ice crystals and droplets. Observed peculiar radar reflectivity patterns also suggest that G-band radars could be used to gain insight into the melting behavior of small ice crystals. G-band signal interpretation is challenging, because attenuation and non-Rayleigh effects are typically intertwined. An ideal liquid-free period allowed us to use triple-frequency Ka–W–G observations to test existing ice scattering libraries, and the results raise questions on their comprehensiveness. Overall, this work reinforces the importance of deploying radars (1) with sensitivity sufficient enough to detect small Rayleigh scatters at cloud top in order to derive estimates of path-integrated hydrometeor attenuation, a key constraint for microphysical retrievals; (2) with sensitivity sufficient enough to overcome liquid attenuation, to reveal the larger differential signals generated from using the G-band as part of a multifrequency deployment; and (3) capable of monitoring atmospheric gases to reduce related uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing A Custom-Built Metal Aerosol Processing Chamber: Analysis of Aerosol Coagulation at Low Humidities

We have developed an intermediate size (906 L) aerosol processing chamber, and this work reports on the design and initial characterization of dry aerosol experiments. Specifically, we are determining wall-loss and coagulation correction factors using the observed size distribution measurements for surrogates of common aerosol classes: sodium chloride, sucrose, and biomass burning aerosol smoke. Results show that, on average, sodium chloride, sucrose, and smoke wall-loss rates converge to similar values on relatively short time scales (< 1 h). The fitted coagulation correction factor, W C -1 , for smoke particles (1.23 ± 0.312), indicates that on average they adhere to each other more than sodium chloride (0.969 ± 0.524) and sucrose (1.16 ± 1.38). The relative uncertainty is high for the coagulation correction, but it is consistent with our Monte Carlo error analysis. This study lays the foundation for future experiments at elevated humidity and supersaturation conditions to characterize the influence of particle shape on coagulation and cloud parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of aerosol optical properties to the aerosol size distribution over central Europe and the Mediterranean Basin using the WRF-Chem v.3.9.1.1 coupled model

The size distribution of atmospheric aerosols plays a key role for understanding and quantifying the uncertainties related to aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions. These interactions ultimately depend on the size distribution through optical properties (such as aerosol optical depth, AOD) or cloud microphysical properties. Hence, the main objective of this contribution is to disentangle the impact of the representation of aerosol size distribution on aerosol optical properties over central Europe, particularly over the Mediterranean Basin, during a summertime aerosol episode. To fulfill this objective, a sensitivity test has been conducted using the coupled chemistry–meteorology model WRF-Chem (Weather Research Forecast model coupled with Chemistry). The test modified the parameters defining a lognormal size distribution (geometric diameter and standard deviation) by 10 %, 20 %, and 50 %. Results reveal that the reduction in the standard deviation of the accumulation mode leads to the largest impacts on AOD due to a transfer of particles from the accumulation mode to the coarse mode. A reduction in the geometric diameter of the accumulation mode also has an influence on AOD representation since particles in this mode are assumed to be smaller. In addition, an increase in the geometric diameter of the coarse mode produces a redistribution through the total size distribution by relocating particles from the finer modes to the coarse.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM)

Abstract. Multi-meter sea level rise (SLR) is thought to be possible within the next few centuries, with most of the uncertainty originating from the Antarctic land ice contribution. One source of uncertainty relates to the ice sheet model initialization. Since ice sheets have a long response time (compared to other Earth system components such as the atmosphere), ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. To assess this, we generated 25 different ice sheet spin-ups, using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) at a 4 km resolution. During each spin-up, we varied two key parameters known to impact the sensitivity of the ice sheet to future forcing: one related to the sensitivity of the ice shelf melt rate to ocean thermal forcing (TF) and the other related to the basal friction. The spin-ups all nudge toward observed thickness and enforce a no-advance calving criterion, such that all final spin-up states resemble observations but differ in their melt and friction parameter settings. Each spin-up was then forced with future ocean thermal forcings from 13 different CMIP6 models under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)5-8.5 emissions scenario and modern climatological surface mass balance data. Our results show that the effects of the ice sheet and ocean parameter settings used during the spin-up are capable of impacting multi-century future SLR predictions by as much as 2 m. By the end of this century, the effects of these choices are more modest, but still significant, with differences of up to 0.2 m of SLR. We have identified a combined ocean and ice parameter space that leads to widespread mass loss within 500 years (low friction and high melt rate sensitivity). To explore temperature thresholds, we also ran a synthetically forced CISM ensemble that is focused on the Amundsen region only. Given certain ocean and ice parameter choices, Amundsen mass loss can be triggered with thermal forcing anomalies between 1.5 and 2 ∘C relative to the spin-up. Our results emphasize the critical importance of considering ice sheet and ocean parameter choices during spin-up for SLR predictions and suggest the importance of including glacial isostatic adjustment in ice sheet simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wind farm flow control: prospects and challenges

Abstract. Wind farm control has been a topic of research for more than two decades. It has been identified as a core component of grand challenges in wind energy science to support accelerated wind energy deployment and to transition to a clean and sustainable energy system for the 21st century. The prospect of collective control of wind turbines in an array, to increase energy extraction, reduce structural loads, improve the balance of systems, reduce operation and maintenance costs, etc. has inspired many researchers over the years to propose innovative ideas and solutions. However, practical demonstration and commercialization of some of the more advanced concepts has been limited by a wide range of challenges, which include the complex physics of turbulent flows in wind farms and the atmosphere, uncertainties related to predicting structural load and failure statistics, and the highly multi-disciplinary nature of the overall design optimization problem, among others. In the current work, we aim at providing a comprehensive overview of the state of the art and outstanding challenges, thus identifying the key research areas that could further enable commercial uptake and success of wind farm control solutions. To this end, we have structured the discussion on challenges and opportunities into four main areas: (1) insight in control flow physics, (2) algorithms and AI, (3) validation and industry implementation, and (4) integrating control with system design (co-design).

Meyers, Johan (ORCID:0000000228284397)↗

Polarization and Centre-of-mass Energy Calibration at FCC-ee

The first stage of the FCC (Future Circular Collider) is a high-luminosity electron-positron collider (FCC-ee) with centre-of-mass energy ranging from 88 to 365 GeV, to study with high precision the Z, W, Higgs and top particles, with samples of $5 \times 10^{12}$ Z bosons, $10^8$ W pairs, $10^6$ Higgs bosons and $10^6$ top quark pairs. A cornerstone of the physics program lays in the precise (ppm) measurements of the W and Z masses and widths, as well as forward-backward asymmetries. To this effect the centre-of-mass energy distribution should be determined with the high precision. This document describes the capacity offered by FCC-ee, starting with transverse polarization of the beams around the Z pole and the W pair threshold. A running scheme based on regular measurements of the beam energy by resonant depolarization of pilot bunches, during physics data taking, is proposed. The design for polarization wigglers, polarimeter and depolarizer is outlined. The $e^\pm$ beam energies will be monitored with a relative precision of $10^{-6}$. The centre-of-mass energy is derived subject to further corrections, related to the beam acceleration, synchrotron radiation and beamstrahlung; these effects are identified and evaluated. Dimuon events $e^+e^- \to \mu^+ \mu^-$, recorded in the detectors, provide with great precision the beam crossing angle, the centre-of-mass energy spread, and the $e^+$ and $e^-$ energy difference. Monitoring methods to minimize absolute error and relative uncertainties are discussed. The impact on the physics measurements is given. A programme of further simulations, design, monitoring and R&D is outlined.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Safeguards Modeling for Advanced Nuclear Facility Design.

Future nuclear fuel cycle facilities will see a significant benefit from considering materials accountancy requirements early in the design process. The Material Protection, Accounting, and Control Technologies (MPACT) working group is demonstrating Safeguards and Security by Design (SSBD) for a notional electrochemical reprocessing facility as part of a 2020 Milestone. The idea behind SSBD is to consider regulatory requirements early in the design process to provide more optimized systems and avoid costly retrofits later in the design process. Safeguards modeling, using single analyst tools, allows the designer to efficiently consider materials accountancy approaches that meet regulatory requirements. However, safeguards modeling also allows the facility designer to go beyond current regulations and work toward accountancy designs with rapid response and lower thresholds for detection of anomalies. This type of modeling enables new safeguards approaches and may inform future regulatory changes. The Separation and Safeguards Performance Model (SSPM) has been used for materials accountancy system design and analysis. This paper steps through the process of designing a Material Control and Accountancy (MC&A) system, presents the baseline system design for an electrochemical reprocessing facility, and provides performance metrics from the modeling analysis. The most critical measurements in the electrochemical facility are the spent fuel input, electrorefiner salt, and U/TRU product output measurements. Finally, material loss scenario analysis found that measurement uncertainties (relative standard deviations) for Pu would need to be at 1% (random and systematic error components) or better in order to meet domestic detection goals or as high as 3% in order to meet international detection goals, based on a 100 metric ton per year plant size.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Measurement of ( n, γ ) cross section of 90 Zr [Abstract]

The isotopes of Zr with A = [90, 91, 92, 94] make up more than 97% of naturally occurring Zr and are important to many nuclear applications such as nuclear reactors. One of the attractive qualities of naturally occurring Zr isotopes is that they have a low σγ/σt ratio at most neutron energies, such that they improve the neutron economy in reactors by preferentially scattering neutrons rather than absorbing them. This same quality also presents a challenge to measuring the capture cross section, σγ, of Zr isotopes. The ENDF/B-VIII.0 library has a relative uncertainty of approximately 10-20% for incident neutron energies < 0.1 MeV, and uncertainty greater than 20% for energies > 0.1 MeV for the majority of natural Zr isotopes. This motivated the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) to embark on a campaign to accurately measure and evaluate these isotopes of Zr. Here we will show energy-dependent neutron capture cross section measurements for the first enriched sample to be measured: 90 Zr. The measurements of isotopically enriched samples are being carried out at the Geel Electron Linear Accelerator (GELINA) facility of the Joint Research Center - Geel (JRC-Geel) of the European Union. As isotopic enrichment is a costly process we are careful not to activate any of the samples, as this may hinder future radiation-sensitive measurements. The activation analysis is presented in a report by Brown et al.. Once we were satisfied that the Zr samples would not be activated by the measurements, the 90 Zr sample was fabricated at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and shipped to GELINA. The dimensions of the cylindrical sample are approximately 0.12 cm thick and a radius of 2.5 cm. Since 90 Zr is not chemically reactive to air, bare metallic samples were employed. The sample was measured at a flight path (FP) length of 60 m, using four C 6 D 6 detectors on FP14. The final paper will include experimental details and measured cross section data for 90 Zr compared to current evaluated nuclear data libraries.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Pilot Business Case Analysis for Digital Infrastructure

The Inflation Reduction Act Has Provided an Opening to Dramatically Change and Improve the Economics of Nuclear Power Until recently, the commercial nuclear sector has faced unprecedented financial challenges driven by low natural gas prices and subsidized renewables, in a marketplace that did not reward carbon-free baseload capacity. The industry is also plagued by labor shortages, increasingly obsolete labor-centric operating models and antiquated analog technology that threaten the viability of the long-term operations of domestic nuclear facilities. In this context, the economic survival of nuclear power plants requires an efficient and technology-centric operating model that harvests the native efficiencies of advanced technology. Such transformations have been made in many other industries – notably, oil and gas. The passage by Congress of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022 provides nuclear operators with unprecedented economic incentives to pursue these upgrades. To realize the benefits of these incentives and achieve the necessary transformations in the nuclear operating model, the nuclear industry must overcome both the continuing unease about licensing pathways and uncertainty related to implementation costs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Zr Nuclear Data Campaign: Measurement of (n,γ) cross section of 90,91 Zr [Abstract]

The isotopes of Zr with mass number A = [90; 91; 92; 94] make up more than 97% of naturally occurring Zr and are important to many nuclear applications due to their desirable mechanical and nuclear properties. For example, the zirconium alloys are used as cladding material in nuclear reactors. In addition to the mechanical properties, Zr-90 has a closed neutron shell, hence the capture cross sections of the zirconium isotopes are relatively small, such that they improve the neutron economy in reactors by preferentially scattering neutrons rather than absorbing them. This same quality also presents a challenge to measuring the capture cross section, σ γ (E), of Zr isotopes. For incident neutron energies < 0.1 MeV, the ENDF library reports a relative uncertainty of approximately 20% and uncertainty greater than 20% above this energy. This motivates the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) to perform new neutron induced cross section measurements to accurately evaluate these four isotopes of Zr.

ENDF↗

A Novel Measurement of the Anomalous Muon Spin Precession Frequency in the Muon $g-2$ Experiment at Fermilab

The Muon $g-2$ Experiment operated at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL, or Fermilab) between 2018 and 2023 to produce the world's most precise measurement of the muon's \textit{anomalous magnetic moment}, $a_\mu = \frac{g_\mu - 2}{2}$, which expresses the relative deviation in the muon's $g$-factor from a baseline theoretical expectation that $g_\mu = 2$. In the Standard Model of particle physics, $g_\mu > 2$ and hence $a_\mu > 0$ by a calculable amount that depends on all possible interactions between the muon and all other fundamental particles, including any potentially undiscovered interactions beyond the Standard Model. For this reason, measurements of the electron anomaly $a_e$ and later the muon anomaly $a_\mu$ have helped guide the development of the Standard Model since the inception of quantum field theory, and the measured value of $a_\mu$ provides a valuable constraint for new hypotheses that extend the Standard Model. As of 2006, the leading measurement and Standard Model prediction for $a_\mu$ exhibited tension at the level of about three standard deviations, motivating an improved measurement at Fermilab that could test the tension more precisely. The experiment functions by storing a polarized beam of $\mu^+$ in a uniform magnetic field, which simultaneously induces circular motion and spin precession. As the stored muons undergo the Michel decay $\mu^+ \to e^+ + \nu_e + \bar{\nu}_\mu$, mediated by the parity-violating weak interaction, the rest-frame $e^+$ emission direction is correlated with the parent $\mu^+$ spin orientation. Boosting into the laboratory frame encodes this correlation in the decay $e^+$ energy, which is higher when the emission (i.e. $\mu^+$ spin direction) is aligned with the $\mu^+$ momentum, and lower when opposite. Detectors then count the rate of high-energy decay $e^+$, which modulates at the difference between the $\mu^+$ revolution and spin precession frequencies. This observed frequency, called the \textit{anomalous spin precession frequency} $\omega_a$, is directly proportional to $a_\mu$. The extraction of $\omega_a$ proceeds by fitting the time spectrum of detected $e^+$, which requires precise modeling of the $\omega_a$ oscillation as well as any perturbations from beam dynamics and detector acceptance. Using the $\omega_a$ analysis presented in this work, based on Runs 4 -- 6 of the Muon $g-2$ Experiment at Fermilab, we find that $a_\mu = 0.001\,165\,920\,738(162)$ with a relative uncertainty of 139 parts per billion.

Barrett, Tyler [Cornell U.]↗

Propulsion System Design using a Dual 3-Phase PM Synchronous Reluctance Machine with X-Type Multi-Level GaN Inverter

— A propulsion system design is exhibited here that comprises of an X-type GaN power module based dual multi-level inverter and a PM Synchronous Reluctance motor. With the critical benefits of multi-level operation, namely low common mode EMI noise, low switching loss, low current Total Harmonic Distortion (THD), smoother torque and lower iron loss, this topology targets high system-level efficiency and high power density while using reduced rare earth (RE) elements in its motor. General Motors and Purdue University jointly designed and developed this 800V class, highly scalable traction drive that can deliver 200+ kW of power suitable for C-SUV to truck vehicle class. The 3-phase electric machine design utilizes dual winding with 6 terminals to work in line with the GaN X-type inverter, and results in a tractive solution that ensures higher machine efficiency while reducing cost and uncertainty related to use and availability of heavy rare earth/rare earth elements in its rotor.

MOMEN, FAIZUL [General Motors LLC, Detroit, MI (Un↗

Multifidelity Monte Carlo estimation for efficient uncertainty quantification in climate-related modeling

Abstract. Uncertainties in an output of interest that depends on the solution of a complex system (e.g., of partial differential equations with random inputs) are often, if not nearly ubiquitously, determined in practice using Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. While simple to implement, MC estimation fails to provide reliable information about statistical quantities (such as the expected value of the output of interest) in application settings such as climate modeling, for which obtaining a single realization of the output of interest is a costly endeavor. Specifically, the dilemma encountered is that many samples of the output of interest have to be collected in order to obtain an MC estimator that has sufficient accuracy – so many, in fact, that the available computational budget is not large enough to effect the number of samples needed. To circumvent this dilemma, we consider using multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) estimation which leverages the use of less costly and less accurate surrogate models (such as coarser grids, reduced-order models, simplified physics, and/or interpolants) to achieve, for the same computational budget, higher accuracy compared to that obtained by an MC estimator – or, looking at it another way, an MFMC estimator obtains the same accuracy as the MC estimator at lower computational cost. The key to the efficacy of MFMC estimation is the fact that most of the required computational budget is loaded onto the less costly surrogate models so that very few samples are taken of the more expensive model of interest. We first provide a more detailed discussion about the need to consider an alternative to MC estimation for uncertainty quantification. Subsequently, we present a review, in an abstract setting, of the MFMC approach along with its application to three climate-related benchmark problems as a proof-of-concept exercise.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Partitioning uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice

Abstract Improved knowledge of the contributing sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice over the 21st century is essential for evaluating impacts of a changing Arctic environment. Here, we consider the role of internal variability, model structure and emissions scenario in projections of Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) by using six single model initial-condition large ensembles and a suite of models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. For projections of September Arctic SIA change, internal variability accounts for as much as 40%–60% of the total uncertainty in the next decade, while emissions scenario dominates uncertainty toward the end of the century. Model structure accounts for 60%–70% of the total uncertainty by mid-century and declines to 30% at the end of the 21st century in the summer months. For projections of wintertime Arctic SIA change, internal variability contributes as much as 50%–60% of the total uncertainty in the next decade and impacts total uncertainty at longer lead times when compared to the summertime. In winter, there exists a considerable scenario dependence of model uncertainty with relatively larger model uncertainty under strong forcing compared to weak forcing. At regional scales, the contribution of internal variability can vary widely and strongly depends on the calendar month and region. For wintertime SIA change in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian and Barents Seas, internal variability contributes 60%–70% to the total uncertainty over the coming decades and remains important much longer than in other regions. We further find that the relative contribution of internal variability to total uncertainty is state-dependent and increases as sea ice volume declines. These results demonstrate that internal variability is a significant source of uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice.

Bonan, David B. (ORCID:0000000338676009)↗