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At least 163 records · Page 9

Uncertainty of Five-Hole Probe Measurements

A new algorithm for five-hole probe calibration and data reduction using a non-nulling technique was developed, verified, and reported earlier (Wendt and Reichert, 1993). The new algorithm's simplicity permits an analytical treatment of the propagation of uncertainty in five-hole probe measurement. The objectives of the uncertainty analysis are to quantify the uncertainty of five-hole probe results (e.g., total pressure, static pressure, and flow direction) and to determine the dependence of the result uncertainty on the uncertainty of all underlying experimental and calibration measurands. This study outlines a general procedure that other researchers may use to determine five-hole probe result uncertainty and provides guidance for improving the measurement technique.

Reichert, Bruce A.↗

Evaluating Shielding Effectiveness for Reducing Space Radiation Cancer Risks

We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDF s are used in significance tests of the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDF s. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the 95% confidence level (CL) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions (<180 d), SPE s present the most significant risk, however one that is mitigated effectively by shielding, especially for carbon composites structures with high hydrogen content. In contrast, for long duration lunar (>180 d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits, with 95% CL s exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding can not be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Station coordinates for GEOS-C altimeter calibration and experimentation

Station coordinates are given for the C-band radar GEOS-C altimeter calibration sites at Bermuda, Merritt, Grand Turk, and Wallops Islands. The coordinates were estimated in a multi-arc dynamic solution using GEOS-2 C-band radar and laser ranges with a priori information from the GSFC-1973 station coordinate solution. Comparisons with other solutions suggest a relative uncertainty of a few meters in each coordinate. Data reductions show that station coordinates of this quality can introduce a rapidly changing error into the altitude of a satellite whose orbit is determined from calibration area data alone. In contrast, global tracking constrains the orbit and results in slowly varying satellite position error.

Marsh, J. G.↗

Stepwise Regression Analysis of MDOE Balance Calibration Data Acquired at DNW

This paper reports a comparison of two experiment design methods applied in the calibration of a strain-gage balance. One features a 734-point test matrix in which loads are varied systematically according to a method commonly applied in aerospace research and known in the literature of experiment design as One Factor At a Time (OFAT) testing. Two variations of an alternative experiment design were also executed on the same balance, each with different features of an MDOE experiment design. The Modern Design of Experiments (MDOE) is an integrated process of experiment design, execution, and analysis applied at NASA's Langley Research Center to achieve significant reductions in cycle time, direct operating cost, and experimental uncertainty in aerospace research generally and in balance calibration experiments specifically. Personnel in the Instrumentation and Controls Department of the German Dutch Wind Tunnels (DNW) have applied MDOE methods to evaluate them in the calibration of a balance using an automated calibration machine. The data have been sent to Langley Research Center for analysis and comparison. This paper reports key findings from this analysis. The chief result is that a 100-point calibration exploiting MDOE principles delivered quality comparable to a 700+ point OFAT calibration with significantly reduced cycle time and attendant savings in direct and indirect costs. While the DNW test matrices implemented key MDOE principles and produced excellent results, additional MDOE concepts implemented in balance calibrations at Langley Research Center are also identified and described.

DeLoach, RIchard↗

An improved lunar moment of inertia determination - A proposed strategy

A strategy for determining an improved lunar moment of inertia is proposed. An improved uncertainty in the lunar inhomogeneity parameter could reduce the core density error from 4.20 gr/cu cm to 0.1 gm/cu cm for the case of a lunar density model having a 300 km core radius. The current error of 0.0025 for the lunar inhomogeneity parameter is mostly due to the uncertainties in the C20 and C22 gravity harmonics. An optimum reduction strategy for obtaining an order of magnitude improvement in the gravity estimates is based on covariance analyses of Doppler data. The long-arc reduction method is shown to provide better results than the short-arc technique, and the use of an orbit with a 7000 km semimajor axis along with certain terms of up to degree and order eight is recommended.

Ananda, M. P.↗

Ground-based cometary spectroscopy

The observational problems presented by bright comets near perihelion are discussed. High and low resolution spectra (3100-800A) of the bright comets Kohoutek, Kobayashi-Berger-Milon, West and d'Arrest are presented. Digital reduction of calibrated photographic spectra to relative intensity versus wavelength, can provide useful information. The reduction of comet spectra to absolute intensities involves, however, large uncertainties and should be interpreted cautiously. Data on recent comets lead to the following results: tentative identification of a new ion in the tail of comets, namely, NH(+); spectroscopic resolution of the fragmented nucleus of comet West; and an accurate monochromatic intensity profile of the Co+ emission (4020A) in comet West.

Wyckoff, S.↗

Reduction and Analysis of Phosphor Thermography Data With the IHEAT Software Package

Detailed aeroheating information is critical to the successful design of a thermal protection system (TPS) for an aerospace vehicle. This report describes NASA Langley Research Center's (LaRC) two-color relative-intensity phosphor thermography method and the IHEAT software package which is used for the efficient data reduction and analysis of the phosphor image data. Development of theory is provided for a new weighted two-color relative-intensity fluorescence theory for quantitatively determining surface temperatures on hypersonic wind tunnel models; an improved application of the one-dimensional conduction theory for use in determining global heating mappings; and extrapolation of wind tunnel data to flight surface temperatures. The phosphor methodology at LaRC is presented including descriptions of phosphor model fabrication, test facilities and phosphor video acquisition systems. A discussion of the calibration procedures, data reduction and data analysis is given. Estimates of the total uncertainties (with a 95% confidence level) associated with the phosphor technique are shown to be approximately 8 to 10 percent in the Langley's 31-Inch Mach 10 Tunnel and 7 to 10 percent in the 20-Inch Mach 6 Tunnel. A comparison with thin-film measurements using two-inch radius hemispheres shows the phosphor data to be within 7 percent of thin-film measurements and to agree even better with predictions via a LATCH computational fluid dynamics solution (CFD). Good agreement between phosphor data and LAURA CFD computations on the forebody of a vertical takeoff/vertical lander configuration at four angles of attack is also shown. In addition, a comparison is given between Mach 6 phosphor data and laminar and turbulent solutions generated using the LAURA, GASP and LATCH CFD codes. Finally, the extrapolation method developed in this report is applied to the X-34 configuration with good agreement between the phosphor extrapolation and LAURA flight surface temperature predictions. The phosphor process outlined in the paper is believed to provide the aerothermodynamic community with a valuable capability for rapidly obtaining (4 to 5 weeks) detailed heating information needed in TPS design.

Merski, N. Ronald↗

Global and Regional Trends of Atmospheric Sulfur

The profound changes in global SO[subscript 2] emissions over the last decades have affected atmospheric composition on a regional and global scale with large impact on air quality, atmospheric deposition and the radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols. Reproduction of historical atmospheric pollution levels based on global aerosol models and emission changes is crucial to prove that such models are able to predict future scenarios. Here, we analyze consistency of trends in observations of sulfur components in air and precipitation from major regional networks and estimates from six different global aerosol models from 1990 until 2015. There are large interregional differences in the sulfur trends consistently captured by the models and observations, especially for North America and europe. europe had the largest reductions in sulfur emissions in the first part of the period while the highest reduction came later in North America and east Asia. the uncertainties in both the emissions and the representativity of the observations are larger in Asia. However, emissions from East Asia clearly increased from 2000 to 2005 followed by a decrease, while in India a steady increase over the whole period has been observed and modelled. the agreement between a bottom-up approach, which uses emissions and process-based chemical transport models, with independent observations gives an improved confidence in the understanding of the atmospheric sulfur budget.

Aas, Wenche↗

Hybrid Propulsion In-Situ Resource Utilization Test Facility Results for Performance Characterization

Hybrid propulsion presents a promising alternative to conventional systems for in-space propulsion applications using In-Situ Propellant Production (ISPP). A hybrid propulsion test facility has been built at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) with the capability to evaluate ISPP oxidizers (gaseous mixtures of O2 and CO2) and modify fuel type and chamber geometry. This work is the result of a continuing effort at JPL to characterize the burn characteristics and performance of different propellant combinations and motor configurations in order to refine and support preliminary designs. Twelve tests using gaseous oxygen and two paraffin based fuels (Black Paraffin and SP1X) from the 2015 campaign are presented. Different reduction techniques are compared in an effort to determine the uncertainty associated with deriving a regression rate law and evaluating c* efficiency with the collected data.

Mechentel, F. S.↗

Parametric Study of Federated Conflict Resolution for UAM Operations

This work presents a federated conflict resolution algorithm and its parametric study for UAM operations. A federated speed-control-based conflict resolution algorithm is introduced first, including its rules of the road, data exchange requirement, and critical parameters. Two experiments were set up for the parametric study. The first investigates five parameters: look ahead time, resolution update interval, maximum allowed speed reduction, traffic flow interval, and crossing angle. The second experiment studies the uncertainty of departure time. Metrics associated with safety, efficiency, and conflict resolution effort were measured for each scenario. A Design Of Experiment (DOE) analysis was used to perform the multi-factor analysis for the first experiment. It revealed that the crossing angle and flow interval were the most critical parameters across all three metrics, followed by maximum allowed speed reduction. Look ahead time and resolution update interval were of minor significance to safety and conflict resolution effort, but had little to no effect on efficiency. The analysis of the second experiment showed that, given a flow rate, the fluctuation in departure time was absorbed by the conflict resolution algorithm, which resulted in a relatively small fluctuation in airborne delay.

Urban air mobility↗

Parametric Study of Federated Conflict Resolution for UAM Operations using DOE Analysis

This work presents a federated conflict resolution algorithm and its parametric study for UAM operations. A federated speed-control-based conflict resolution algorithm is introduced first, including its rules of the road, data exchange requirement, and critical parameters. Two experiments were set up for the parametric study. The first investigates five parameters: look ahead time, resolution update interval, maximum allowed speed reduction, traffic flow interval, and crossing angle. The second experiment studies the uncertainty of departure time. Metrics associated with safety, efficiency, and conflict resolution effort were measured for each scenario. A Design Of Experiment (DOE) analysis was used to perform the multi-factor analysis for the first experiment. It revealed that the crossing angle and flow interval were the most critical parameters across all three metrics, followed by maximum allowed speed reduction. Look ahead time and resolution update interval were of minor significance to safety and conflict resolution effort, but had little to no effect on efficiency. The analysis of the second experiment showed that, given a flow rate, the fluctuation in departure time was absorbed by the conflict resolution algorithm, which resulted in a relatively small fluctuation in airborne delay.

Urban air mobility↗

Modeling Large Dust Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.

mineral dust↗

A Reliability Comparison of Classical and Stochastic Thickness Margin Approaches to Address Material Property Uncertainties for the Orion Heat Shield

The Orion Thermal Protection System (TPS) margin process uses a root-sum-square approach with branches addressing trajectory, aerothermodynamics, and material response uncertainties in ablator thickness design. The material response branch applies a bondline temperature reduction between the Avcoat ablator and EA9394 adhesive by 60 C (108 F) from its peak allowed value of 260 C (500 F). This process is known as the Bond Line Temperature Material Margin (BTMM) and is intended to cover material property and performance uncertainties. The value of 60 C (108 F) is a constant, applied at any spacecraft body location and for any trajectory. By varying only material properties in a random (monte carlo) manner, the perl-based script mcCHAR is used to investigate the confidence interval provided by the BTMM. In particular, this study will look at various locations on the Orion heat shield forebody for a guided and an abort (ballistic) trajectory.

margins↗

A Reliability Comparison of Classical and Stochastic Thickness Margin Approaches to Address Material Property Uncertainties for the Orion Heat Shield

The Orion Thermal Protection System (TPS) margin process uses a root-sum-square approach with branches addressing trajectory, aerothermodynamics, and material response uncertainties in ablator thickness design. The material response branch applies a bond line temperature reduction between the Avcoat ablator and EA9394 adhesive by 60 C (108 F) from its peak allowed value of 260 C (500 F). This process is known as the Bond Line Temperature Material Margin (BTMM) and is intended to cover material property and performance uncertainties. The value of 60 C (108 F) is a constant, applied at any spacecraft body location and for any trajectory. By varying only material properties in a random (monte carlo) manner, the perl-based script mcCHAR is used to investigate the confidence interval provided by the BTMM. In particular, this study will look at various locations on the Orion heat shield forebody for a guided and an abort (ballistic) trajectory.

FIAT↗

Adaptive Trajectory Prediction Algorithm for Climbing Flights

Aircraft climb trajectories are difficult to predict, and large errors in these predictions reduce the potential operational benefits of some advanced features for NextGen. The algorithm described in this paper improves climb trajectory prediction accuracy by adjusting trajectory predictions based on observed track data. It utilizes rate-of-climb and airspeed measurements derived from position data to dynamically adjust the aircraft weight modeled for trajectory predictions. In simulations with weight uncertainty, the algorithm is able to adapt to within 3 percent of the actual gross weight within two minutes of the initial adaptation. The root-mean-square of altitude errors for five-minute predictions was reduced by 73 percent. Conflict detection performance also improved, with a 15 percent reduction in missed alerts and a 10 percent reduction in false alerts. In a simulation with climb speed capture intent and weight uncertainty, the algorithm improved climb trajectory prediction accuracy by up to 30 percent and conflict detection performance, reducing missed and false alerts by up to 10 percent.

Seperation Assurance↗

Causes and control of solar electric propulsion interactive effects

Contaminant effects and questions of thrust system operation status are discussed together with the sources of contaminant effects and the areas of contaminant impact. Contaminant reduction techniques are considered, giving attention to magnetic contamination, dc electric contamination, ac electric contamination, conducted EM interference, radio frequency interference, and material transport and deposition. Design goals for the reduction of contaminant levels are examined along with some areas of uncertainty.

Sellen, J. M., Jr.↗

Geoid height versus age for symmetric spreading ridges

Geoid height-age relations have been extracted from Geos 3 altimeter data for large areas in the North Atlantic, South Atlantic, southeast Indian, and southeast Pacific oceans. Except for the southeast Pacific area, geoid height decreases approximately linearly with the age of the ocean floor for ages less than about 80 m.y. in agreement with the prediction of an isostatically compensated thermal boundary layer model (Haxby and Turcotte, 1978). The geoid-age data for 0 to 80 m.y. are consistent with constant slopes of -0.094 + or - -0.131 + or - 0.041, and -0.149 + or - 0.028 m/m.y. for the South Atlantic, southeast Indian, and North Atlantic regions, respectively. For ages greater than 80 m.y. the geoid-age relation for the North Atlantic is nearly flat, indicating a reduction in the rate of boundary layer thickening with age. The uncertainties in the geoid slope-age estimates are positively correlated with spreading velocity.

Sandwell, D.↗

Solar Dynamics Observatory On-Orbit Jitter Testing, Analysis, and Mitigation Plans

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) was designed to understand the Sun and the Sun s influence on Earth. SDO was launched on February 11, 2010 carrying three scientific instruments: the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), and the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE). Both AIA and HMI are sensitive to high frequency pointing perturbations and have sub-arcsecond level line-of-sight (LOS) jitter requirements. Extensive modeling and analysis efforts were directed in estimating the amount of jitter disturbing the science instruments. To verify the disturbance models and to validate the jitter performance prior to launch, many jitter-critical components and subassemblies were tested either by the mechanism vendors or at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). Although detailed analysis and assembly level tests were performed to obtain good jitter predictions, there were still several sources of uncertainties in the system. The structural finite element model did not have all the modes correlated to test data at high frequencies (greater than 50 Hz). The performance of the instrument stabilization system was not known exactly but was expected to be close to the analytical model. A true disturbance-to-LOS observatory level test was not available due to the tight schedule of the flight spacecraft, the cost in time and manpower, difficulties in creating gravity negation systems, and risks of damaging flight hardware. To protect the observatory jitter performance against model uncertainties, the SDO jitter team devised several on-orbit jitter reduction plans in addition to reserve margins on analysis results. Since some of these plans severely restricted the capabilities of several spacecraft components (e.g. wheels and High Gain Antennas), the SDO team performed on-orbit jitter tests to determine which jitter reduction plans, if any, were necessary to satisfy science LOS jitter requirements. The SDO on-orbit jitter tests were designed to satisfy the following four objectives: 1. Determine the acceptable reaction wheel operational speed range during Science Mode. 2. Determine HGA algorithm jitter parameters (number of stagger steps and enable/disable no-steprequests). 3. Determine acceptable EVE instrument filter wheels spin rates. 4. Determine if AIA instrument filter wheels excite the first AIA telescope structural mode. This paper provides detailed information on the SDO wheel jitter test plan, shows on-orbit jitter measurements and how ground predictions compare to those measurements, and describes the final jitter mitigation plan executed on SDO.

Liu, Kuo-Chia (Alice)↗