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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

A New Approach to Evaluate and Reduce Uncertainty of Model-Based Biodiversity Projections for Conservation Policy Formulation

Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this article, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities.

Bonnie J E Myers↗
NASA NTRS1980

Atmospheric opacity in the Schumann-Runge bands and the aeronomic dissociation of water vapor

Knowledge of the aeronomic production of odd hydrogen in the dissociation of water vapor is limited by uncertainties in the penetration of solar irradiance in the Schumann-Runge bands of O2 and by incomplete information concerning the products of photolysis at Lyman alpha. Consideration of all error sources involved in computing the H2O dissociation rate in the wavelength region 175-200 nm leads to an estimated uncertainty of plus or minus 35% at an altitude of 90 km for an overhead sun. The uncertainty increases with decreasing altitude such that the true dissociation rate at 60 km for an overhead sun lies between 0.45 and 1.55 times the results computed using the best input parameters currently available. Calculations of the H2O dissociation rate by Lyman alpha should include the variation in O2 opacity across the solar line width. Neglect of this can lead to errors as large as 50% at altitudes where the process is the major source of odd hydrogen.

Frederick, J. E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit Determination with Simulated DSN Observations

This paper presents the results of a high-fidelity simulation of spacecraft orbit determination in a near rectilinear halo orbit (NRHO). Others in the literature have examined this problem with linear covariance analysis, but the highly-nonlinear dynamics of this orbit challenge the assumptions underlying such analyses. The present work builds on similar analysis performed by other authors to contribute a fuller understanding of the operational requirements for NRHO navigation. The present work serves as a check to the assumptions of previous studies and an independent verification of those results. The results from the literature are extended by quantifying the space of orbital states from which a spacecraft with given control authority can safely return to the nominal path. Spacecraft state uncertainty estimates are evaluated as a function of time. Simulated range and range-rate measurements with the Deep Space Network (DSN) ground stations are used to model orbit determination accuracy. Orbit maintenance maneuvers are performed using both short-horizon and long-horizon stationkeeping targeting. Monte Carlo analysis of orbit determination and stationkeeping is performed. This paper quantifies the achievable state uncertainty with deep space network (DSN)-only range and range-rate observations. This paper also addresses requirements on the frequency of DSN observation periods and correlates ground contact frequency with navigation accuracy. The results of several related studies are presented and discussed: the effect of missing ground station passes, the effect of missing stationkeeping maneuvers, the sensitivity of the spacecraft state estimate to realistic error sources, and stationkeeping propellant budget.

Nathan L Parrish↗
NASA NTRS1994

Spatially resolved optical and near-infrared spectroscopy of the low-metallicity galaxy UGC 4483

UGC 4483 is a dwarf irregular galaxy in the M81 group. Narrow-band imaging has revealed an H II region in UGC 4483 with an H alpha flux approximately = 1 x 10 (exp - 13) ergs/sq cm/s. Optical and near-infrared spectroscopy of this H ll region yields He, N, O, Ne, and S abundances for the interstellar matter (ISM) in this galaxy. The spectra were acquired with several different telescope/instrument combinations in order to assess the quality of the derived uncertainties. With oxygen abundance of 3.3 x 10 (exp -5) (12 + log (O/H) = 7.5), this galaxy is similar to GR 8 and among the most metal poor dwarf irregulars known to date. However, the H II region in UGC 4483 has high excitation and higher surface brightness than GR 8, allowing very accurate abundance estimates. The N/O ratio is 3%, in good agreement with other low-metallicity dwarf galaxies. The S/O abundance ratio in UGC 4483 is close to the solar ratio, consistent with results for I Zw 18 and other low-metallicity dwarf irregulars. A He/H abundance of 0.079 +/- 0.002 is derived from observations of the lambda 6678 He ll emission line. A comparison of observations obtained with different telescopes and with the same telescope on different nights supports our relatively small estimated uncertainty in this measurement. We determine that the neutral helium fraction is insignificant through both direct observations of the He(+)/H(+) ratio across the nebula and through photoionization modeling. This results in a helium mass fraction of 0.239 +/- 0.006, consistent with the most recent theoretical and observational determinations of the primordial helium abundance. We also discuss remaining systematic uncertainties in the calculation of the primordial helium abundance

Skillman, Evan D.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Radiation Effects and Protection for Moon and Mars Missions

Manned and robotic missions to the Earth's moon and Mars are exposed to a continuous flux of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) and occasional, but intense, fluxes of Solar Energetic Particles (SEP). These natural radiations impose hazards to manned exploration, but also present some constraints to the design of robotic missions. The hazards to interplanetary flight crews and their uncertainties have been studied recently by a National Research Council Committee (Space Studies Board 1996). Considering the present uncertainty estimates, thick spacecraft shielding would be needed for manned missions, some of which could be accomplished with onboard equipment and expendables. For manned and robotic missions, the effects of radiation on electronics, sensors, and controls require special consideration in spacecraft design. This paper describes the GCR and SEP particle fluxes, secondary particles behind shielding, uncertainties in radiobiological effects and their impact on manned spacecraft design, as well as the major effects on spacecraft equipment. The principal calculational tools and considerations to mitigate the radiation effects are discussed, and work in progress to reduce uncertainties is included.

Parnell, Thomas A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Asteroid orbit determination using Bayesian probabilities

Bayesian a priori and a posteriori probability densities are employed to determine asteroid orbital elements from optical astrometric observations. For near-earth asteroids and Jupiter Trojans, the two-body approximation can yield grossly erroneous uncertainty estimates because of the scattering effect of close planetary encounters or prolonged weak planetary perturbations. For main-belt asteroids, the two-body approximation works efficiently, from which it is inferred that, although the ephemeris must be computed from an integrated orbit, only approximate partial derivatives are needed to attain sufficient accuracy in predicting ephemeris uncertainties. The semimajor and semiminor axes of the 2D 1-sigma sky-plane uncertainty ellipse during the years 1993 to 2005 in the many-body and two-body linear approximations are shown.

Muinonen, Karri↗
NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Land Model Calibration on Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry and wet land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through calibration of the Noah land surface model using the new optimization and uncertainty estimation subsystem in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE). The impact of the calibration on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) the simulated heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations is then assessed. Changes in ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling are evaluated along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Results indicate that the offline calibration leads to systematic improvements in land-PBL fluxes and near-surface temperature and humidity, and in the process provide guidance on the questions of what, how, and when to calibrate land surface models for coupled model prediction.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Mission Analysis Program for Solar Electric Propulsion (MAPSEP). Volume 2: User's manual for earth orbital MAPSEP

The trajectory simulation mode (SIMSEP) requires the namelist SIMSEP to follow TRAJ. The SIMSEP contains parameters which describe the scope of the simulation, expected dynamic errors, and cumulative statistics from previous SIMSEP runs. Following SIMSEP are a set of GUID namelists, one for each guidance correction maneuver. The GUID describes the strategy, knowledge or estimation uncertainties and cumulative statistics for that particular maneuver. The trajectory display mode (REFSEP) requires only the namelist TRAJ followed by scheduling cards, similar to those used in GODSEP. The fixed field schedule cards define: types of data displayed, span of interest, and frequency of printout. For those users who can vary the amount of blank common storage in their runs, a guideline to estimate the total MAPSEP core requirements is given. Blank common length is related directly to the dimension of the dynamic state (NDIM) used in transition matrix (STM) computation, and, the total augmented (knowledge) state (NAUG). The values of program and blank common must be added to compute the total decimal core for a CDC 6500. Other operating systems must scale these requirements appropriately.

Source record↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Measured and Modeled Vineyard Canopy Development and Water Use

Two publicly available applications relevant to vineyard irrigation management are described. OpenET is a satellite-based system that applies an ensemble of remote sensing methods to enable wide-area monitoring of evapotranspiration (ET) and related measures such as vegetation canopy development (via the NDVI spectral index). Data are freely available at one-quarter acre spatial resolution, and may be automatically aggregated to the individual block level. The satellite-based daily ET data were compared with in-situ eddy covariance measurements collected by micro-meteorological instrumentation in a Central Coast vineyard over a three-year period (2020-2022). Estimation uncertainties were reasonably consistent with prior reports for GRAPEX sites in the Central Valley and North Coast. The CropManage (CM) web application is a free software tool developed and operated U.C. Cooperative Extension for ET-based irrigation scheduling of major specialty crops. CM provides specific guidance for irrigation events in terms of irrigation system runtime. Applied water recommendations are based largely on estimated ET, derived from assumed canopy cover and associated crop coefficients, since the last irrigation or rainfall event. The application was recently adapted to vineyards by accounting for presence of winter/spring cover crop, and vine water stress imposed by regulated deficit irrigation. A 2022 field campaign involved 12 Central Coast and San Joaquin Valley commercial vineyards, and OpenET data were used to help evaluate CM output. Maximum percent vine cover was compared to estimates derived from average July satellite NDVI. The difference for 10 sites lacking midseason groundcover ranged from 0-7% between datasets with average agreement near 4%. Cumulative ET estimates agreed with OpenET to within 12% at the majority of sites, while larger discrepancies at the remaining sites may require additional data collection and analysis during the 2023 season. Satellite based systems such as OpenET have the potential to help parameterize CropManage and similar agricultural decision-support systems.

Measured↗
NASA NTRS2005

Probabilistic Analysis of Impact of Wake Vortices on Closely-Spaced Parallel Approaches

One of the primary constraints on the capacity of the nation's air transportation system is the landing capacity of its largest airports. Many airports with closely spaced parallel runways suffer a severe runway acceptance rate when the weather conditions do not allow full utilization of these parallel runways. The present requirement for simultaneous independent landings in Instrument Meteorological Conditions, IMC, is at least 4300 feet of lateral runway spacing (as close as 3000 feet for runways with a Precision Runway Monitor). Operations in Visual Meteorological Conditions, VMC, to Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches only require a lateral runway spacing greater than 750 feet. A study by Hardy and Lewis integrated and extended earlier studies and concepts in lateral traffic separation, longitudinal station keeping, wake prediction, wake display, and the concepts of R N P into a preliminary system concept for Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches in IMC. This system allows IMC airport acceptance rates to approach those for VMC. The system concept that was developed, presented traffic and wake information on the NAVigation Display, NAV, and developed operational procedures for a mix of conventional and Runway Independent Aircraft with different approach speeds to Closely Spaced Parallel Runways. This paper first describes some improvements made on the technology needed to better predict and formulate a probabilistic representation for the time-dependent motion and spreading of the hazardous region associated with the lift-generated vortex wakes of preceding aircraft. In this way, the time at which the vortex wakes of leading aircraft intrude into the airspace of adjacent flight-corridor/runway combinations can be more reliably predicted. Such a prediction is needed because it determines restraints to be placed on in-trail separation distances; or, the allowable time intervals between aircraft executing nearly simultaneous landings or takeoffs on very closely-spaced runways. Improved estimates of wake spreading are achieved by inclusion of representations in the equations for wake spreading due to ambient turbulence and due to the long-wave instability of a vortex pair. Wake motion and spreading due to the time-averaged wind and its variations with time, are retained. The more detailed representation of wake spreading presented here permits the development of probabilistically-based uncertainty estimates for wake spreading. Measurements needed within actual aircraft wake vortices to validate and support this analysis are also described. The second part of the paper uses the improvements in the accuracy of the location of wake vortices to extend the preliminary system concept for Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches described earlier with more robust operational procedures. Additionally, improvements in longitudinal station keeping, wake display, and risk assessment methodologies are incorporated and described.

Hardy, Gordon H.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Framework for Propagation of Uncertainties in the Kepler Data Analysis Pipeline

The Kepler space telescope is designed to detect Earth-like planets around Sun-like stars using transit photometry by simultaneously observing 100,000 stellar targets nearly continuously over a three and a half year period. The 96-megapixel focal plane consists of 42 charge-coupled devices (CCD) each containing two 1024 x 1100 pixel arrays. Cross-correlations between calibrated pixels are introduced by common calibrations performed on each CCD requiring downstream data products access to the calibrated pixel covariance matrix in order to properly estimate uncertainties. The prohibitively large covariance matrices corresponding to the ~75,000 calibrated pixels per CCD preclude calculating and storing the covariance in standard lock-step fashion. We present a novel framework used to implement standard propagation of uncertainties (POU) in the Kepler Science Operations Center (SOC) data processing pipeline. The POU framework captures the variance of the raw pixel data and the kernel of each subsequent calibration transformation allowing the full covariance matrix of any subset of calibrated pixels to be recalled on-the-fly at any step in the calibration process. Singular value decomposition (SVD) is used to compress and low-pass filter the raw uncertainty data as well as any data dependent kernels. The combination of POU framework and SVD compression provide downstream consumers of the calibrated pixel data access to the full covariance matrix of any subset of the calibrated pixels traceable to pixel level measurement uncertainties without having to store, retrieve and operate on prohibitively large covariance matrices. We describe the POU Framework and SVD compression scheme and its implementation in the Kepler SOC pipeline.

Clarke, Bruce D.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Comparison of Two Methods for Estimating the Sampling-Related Uncertainty of Satellite Rainfall Averages Based on a Large Radar Data Set

The uncertainty of rainfall estimated from averages of discrete samples collected by a satellite is assessed using a multi-year radar data set covering a large portion of the United States. The sampling-related uncertainty of rainfall estimates is evaluated for all combinations of 100 km, 200 km, and 500 km space domains, 1 day, 5 day, and 30 day rainfall accumulations, and regular sampling time intervals of 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 8 h, and 12 h. These extensive analyses are combined to characterize the sampling uncertainty as a function of space and time domain, sampling frequency, and rainfall characteristics by means of a simple scaling law. Moreover, it is shown that both parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques of estimating the sampling uncertainty produce comparable results. Sampling uncertainty estimates, however, do depend on the choice of technique for obtaining them. They can also vary considerably from case to case, reflecting the great variability of natural rainfall, and should therefore be expressed in probabilistic terms. Rainfall calibration errors are shown to affect comparison of results obtained by studies based on data from different climate regions and/or observation platforms.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

Space Weather↗
NASA NTRS2001

Launcher Systems Development Cost: Behavior, Uncertainty, Influences, Barriers and Strategies for Reduction

This paper will report on the activities of the IAA Launcher Systems Economics Working Group in preparations for its Launcher Systems Development Cost Behavior Study. The Study goals include: improve launcher system and other space system parametric cost analysis accuracy; improve launcher system and other space system cost analysis credibility; and provide launcher system and technology development program managers and other decisionmakers with useful information on development cost impacts of their decisions. The Working Group plans to explore at least the following five areas in the Study: define and explain development cost behavior terms and concepts for use in the Study; identify and quantify sources of development cost and cost estimating uncertainty; identify and quantify significant influences on development cost behavior; identify common barriers to development cost understanding and reduction; and recommend practical, realistic strategies to accomplish reductions in launcher system development cost.

Shaw, Eric J.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Surface Irradiances Consistent With CERES-Derived Top-of-Atmosphere Shortwave and Longwave Irradiances

The estimate of surface irradiance on a global scale is possible through radiative transfer calculations using satellite-retrieved surface, cloud, and aerosol properties as input. Computed top-of-atmosphere (TOA) irradiances, however, do not necessarily agree with observation-based values, for example, from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). This paper presents amethod to determine surface irradiances using observational constraints of TOA irradiance from CERES. A Lagrange multiplier procedure is used to objectively adjust inputs based on their uncertainties such that the computed TOA irradiance is consistent with CERES-derived irradiance to within the uncertainty. These input adjustments are then used to determine surface irradiance adjustments. Observations by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO), CloudSat, andModerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) that are a part of the NASA A-Train constellation provide the uncertainty estimates. A comparison with surface observations from a number of sites shows that the bias [root-mean-square (RMS) difference] between computed and observed monthlymean irradiances calculated with 10 years of data is 4.7 (13.3) W/sq m for downward shortwave and 22.5 (7.1) W/sq m for downward longwave irradiances over ocean and 21.7 (7.8) W m22 for downward shortwave and 21.0 (7.6) W/sq m for downward longwave irradiances over land. The bias andRMS error for the downward longwave and shortwave irradiances over ocean are decreased from those without constraint. Similarly, the bias and RMS error for downward longwave over land improves, although the constraint does not improve downward shortwave over land. This study demonstrates how synergetic use of multiple instruments (CERES,MODIS, CALIPSO, CloudSat, AIRS, and geostationary satellites) improves the accuracy of surface irradiance computations.

Kato, Seiji↗
NASA NTRS2012

Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) Interactions playa critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (US-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF Simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Calibrated Land Surface Model Parameters on the Accuracy and Uncertainty of Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Remaining Useful Life Estimation in Prognosis: An Uncertainty Propagation Problem

The estimation of remaining useful life is significant in the context of prognostics and health monitoring, and the prediction of remaining useful life is essential for online operations and decision-making. However, it is challenging to accurately predict the remaining useful life in practical aerospace applications due to the presence of various uncertainties that affect prognostic calculations, and in turn, render the remaining useful life prediction uncertain. It is challenging to identify and characterize the various sources of uncertainty in prognosis, understand how each of these sources of uncertainty affect the uncertainty in the remaining useful life prediction, and thereby compute the overall uncertainty in the remaining useful life prediction. In order to achieve these goals, this paper proposes that the task of estimating the remaining useful life must be approached as an uncertainty propagation problem. In this context, uncertainty propagation methods which are available in the literature are reviewed, and their applicability to prognostics and health monitoring are discussed.

Uncertainty Quantification↗