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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Importance Sampling Monte Carlo to Analyze Aircraft Takeoff and Landing

Aircraft have achieved high levels of reliability, so the probability of undesirable dynamics is very low. The low probability of a bad takeoff or landing challenges nondeterministic methods to quantify the uncertainty of these improbable events. In the present work, a Monte Carlo method is defined to more effectively quantify these unlikely events that is suitable for uncertainty analysis of a mature design with many uncertainty parameters. The proposed Monte Carlo method has been applied to the takeoff and landing of the X-59 Quiet SuperSonic Technology (QueSST). Takeoff and landing simulation profiles were defined using a combination of industry standards and piloted simulation experience. The proposed method is shown to be able to quantify events with significantly fewer samples than would be required with conventional Monte Carlo. These results improve understanding of the sensitivity of the takeoff and landing dynamics to inform further studies and test planning.

Jeffrey Ouellette↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Importance Sampling Monte Carlo to Analyze Aircraft Takeoff and Landing

Jeffrey Ouellette↗

NASA NTRS2014

Calibration of the NASA Glenn Research Center 16 in. Mass-Flow Plug

The results of an experimental calibration of the NASA Glenn Research Center 16 in. Mass-Flow Plug (MFP) are presented and compared to a previously obtained calibration of a 15 in. Mass-Flow Plug. An ASME low-beta, long-radius nozzle was used as the calibration reference. The discharge coefficient for the ASME nozzle was obtained by numerically simulating the flow through the nozzle from the WIND-US code. The results showed agreement between the 15 and 16 in. MFPs for area ratios (MFP to pipe area ratio) greater than 0.6 but deviate at area ratios below this value for reasons that are not fully understood. A general uncertainty analysis was also performed and indicates that large uncertainties in the calibration are present for low MFP area ratios.

Davis, David O.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Calibration of the NASA GRC 16 In. Mass-Flow Plug

The results of an experimental calibration of the NASA Glenn Research Center 16 in. Mass-Flow Plug (MFP) are presented and compared to a previously obtained calibration of a 15 in. Mass-Flow Plug. An ASME low-beta, long-radius nozzle was used as the calibration reference. The discharge coefficient for the ASME nozzle was obtained by numerically simulating the flow through the nozzle from the WIND-US code. The results showed agreement between the 15 in. and 16 in. MFPs for area ratios (MFP to pipe area ratio) greater than 0.6 but deviate at area ratios below this value for reasons that are not fully understood. A general uncertainty analysis was also performed and indicates that large uncertainties in the calibration are present for low MFP area ratios.

Davis, David O.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Performance and Reliability Optimization for Aerospace Systems subject to Uncertainty and Degradation

This report summarizes work performed by the Space Systems Laboratory (SSL) for NASA Langley Research Center in the field of performance optimization for systems subject to uncertainty. The objective of the research is to develop design methods and tools to the aerospace vehicle design process which take into account lifecycle uncertainties. It recognizes that uncertainty between the predictions of integrated models and data collected from the system in its operational environment is unavoidable. Given the presence of uncertainty, the goal of this work is to develop means of identifying critical sources of uncertainty, and to combine these with the analytical tools used with integrated modeling. In this manner, system uncertainty analysis becomes part of the design process, and can motivate redesign. The specific program objectives were: 1. To incorporate uncertainty modeling, propagation and analysis into the integrated (controls, structures, payloads, disturbances, etc.) design process to derive the error bars associated with performance predictions. 2. To apply modern optimization tools to guide in the expenditure of funds in a way that most cost-effectively improves the lifecycle productivity of the system by enhancing the subsystem reliability and redundancy. The results from the second program objective are described. This report describes the work and results for the first objective: uncertainty modeling, propagation, and synthesis with integrated modeling.

Miller, David W.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Primary reference cell calibrations at SERI - History and methods

The tabular calibration method used at the Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI) for primary reference cells is derived and described in detail. An uncertainty analysis shows that the tabular method should have a total uncertainty of + or - 1.0 percent; data from five years of calibrations are then shown to support this analysis. Results from SERI's tabular method are compared with terrestrial calibrations performed by the NASA Lewis Research Center in the late 1970s.

Osterwald, C. R.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Validity of trace element cosmothermometer

A reply is made to previous criticisms of the claim that the range of accretion of ordinary chondrites can be narrowed to 500-420 K (from 560-405 K) using volatile metals as cosmothermometers. Questions concerning uncertainties in vapor pressure data, entropy of mixing, methods of analysis, uncertainties in condensation curves, metamorphic transport, alloy formation, condensation of Tl, condensation of In, and concordance with other thermometers (FeO contents of silicates) are addressed. It is concluded that the original claim is valid.

Anders, E.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Probabilistic Design and Analysis Framework

PRODAF is a software package designed to aid analysts and designers in conducting probabilistic analysis of components and systems. PRODAF can integrate multiple analysis programs to ease the tedious process of conducting a complex analysis process that requires the use of multiple software packages. The work uses a commercial finite element analysis (FEA) program with modules from NESSUS to conduct a probabilistic analysis of a hypothetical turbine blade, disk, and shaft model. PRODAF applies the response surface method, at the component level, and extrapolates the component-level responses to the system level. Hypothetical components of a gas turbine engine are first deterministically modeled using FEA. Variations in selected geometrical dimensions and loading conditions are analyzed to determine the effects of the stress state within each component. Geometric variations include the cord length and height for the blade, inner radius, outer radius, and thickness, which are varied for the disk. Probabilistic analysis is carried out using developing software packages like System Uncertainty Analysis (SUA) and PRODAF. PRODAF was used with a commercial deterministic FEA program in conjunction with modules from the probabilistic analysis program, NESTEM, to perturb loads and geometries to provide a reliability and sensitivity analysis. PRODAF simplified the handling of data among the various programs involved, and will work with many commercial and opensource deterministic programs, probabilistic programs, or modules.

Strack, William C.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Quantitative Evaluation of MODIS Fire Radiative Power Measurement for Global Smoke Emissions Assessment

Satellite remote sensing is providing us tremendous opportunities to measure the fire radiative energy (FRE) release rate or power (FRP) from open biomass burning, which affects many vegetated regions of the world on a seasonal basis. Knowledge of the biomass burning characteristics and emission source strengths of different (particulate and gaseous) smoke constituents is one of the principal ingredients upon which the assessment, modeling, and forecasting of their distribution and impacts depend. This knowledge can be gained through accurate measurement of FRP, which has been shown to have a direct relationship with the rates of biomass consumption and emissions of major smoke constituents. Over the last decade or so, FRP has been routinely measured from space by both the MODIS sensors aboard the polar orbiting Terra and Aqua satellites, and the SEVIRI sensor aboard the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite. During the last few years, FRP has steadily gained increasing recognition as an important parameter for facilitating the development of various scientific studies and applications relating to the quantitative characterization of biomass burning and their emissions. To establish the scientific integrity of the FRP as a stable quantity that can be measured consistently across a variety of sensors and platforms, with the potential of being utilized to develop a unified long-term climate data record of fire activity and impacts, it needs to be thoroughly evaluated, calibrated, and validated. Therefore, we are conducting a detailed analysis of the FRP products from MODIS to evaluate the uncertainties associated with them, such as those due to the effects of satellite variable observation geometry and other factors, in order to establish their error budget for use in diverse scientific research and applications. In this presentation, we will show recent results of the MODIS FRP uncertainty analysis and error mitigation solutions, and demonstrate their implications for biomass burning emissions assessment.

Ichoku, Charles↗

NASA NTRS2016

Identifying and Analyzing Uncertainty Structures in the TRMM Microwave Imager Precipitation Product over Tropical Ocean Basins

Despite continuous improvements in microwave sensors and retrieval algorithms, our understanding of precipitation uncertainty is quite limited, due primarily to inconsistent findings in studies that compare satellite estimates to in situ observations over different parts of the world. This study seeks to characterize the temporal and spatial properties of uncertainty in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager surface rainfall product over tropical ocean basins. Two uncertainty analysis frameworks are introduced to qualitatively evaluate the properties of uncertainty under a hierarchy of spatiotemporal data resolutions. The first framework (i.e. 'climate method') demonstrates that, apart from random errors and regionally dependent biases, a large component of the overall precipitation uncertainty is manifested in cyclical patterns that are closely related to large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. By estimating the magnitudes of major uncertainty sources independently, the climate method is able to explain 45-88% of the monthly uncertainty variability. The percentage is largely resolution dependent (with the lowest percentage explained associated with a 1 deg x 1 deg spatial/1 month temporal resolution, and highest associated with a 3 deg x 3 deg spatial/3 month temporal resolution). The second framework (i.e. 'weather method') explains regional mean precipitation uncertainty as a summation of uncertainties associated with individual precipitation systems. By further assuming that self-similar recurring precipitation systems yield qualitatively comparable precipitation uncertainties, the weather method can consistently resolve about 50 % of the daily uncertainty variability, with only limited dependence on the regions of interest.

Climate↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Improvement in the NASA Glenn Research Center 8- by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel

Within the past decade, a measurement uncertainty analysis (MUA) team was assembled at NASA Glenn Research Center to assist the wind tunnel characterization team with quantification of uncertainty estimates for variables of interest in wind tunnels and test cells across the center. The initial analysis performed by the team was conducted on the 8- by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel using results from the 1996/97 full calibration test entry. These MUA results were published in 2016 which included recommendations for methods to improve the uncertainty estimates for various variables of interest, such as changes to regression models, tunnel operation philosophy, and instrumentation choices. The wind tunnel characterization team utilized the proposed methods in 2019 during a full characterization test entry. Following publication of the 2019 test section characterization results, the MUA team pursued an update to the uncertainty estimates for the facility, which validated previous recommendations and revealed significantly reduced systematic uncertainties across most variables of interest. Inclusion of within-test repeat points in the 2019 test entry allowed for higher fidelity estimates of random uncertainty to be generated, as well. This collaboration between the facility, wind tunnel characterization, and MUA teams serves as an example of the data quality benefits that can be achieved through rigorous analysis of the sources of uncertainty in a ground-test facility.

Uncertainty↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Improvement in the NASA Glenn Research Center 8- by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel

Within the past decade, a measurement uncertainty analysis (MUA) team was assembled at the NASA Glenn Research Center to assist the wind tunnel characterization team with quantification of uncertainty estimates for variables of interest in wind tunnels and test cells across the center. The initial analysis performed by the team was conducted on the 8- by 6- Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel using results from the 1996/97 full calibration test entry. These MUA results were published in 2016 which included recommendations for methods to improve the uncertainty estimates for various variables of interest, such as changes to regression models, tunnel operation philosophy, and instrumentation choices. The wind tunnel characterization team utilized the proposed methods in 2019 during a full characterization test entry. Following publication of the 2019 test section characterization results, the MUA team pursued an update to the uncertainty estimates for the facility, which validated previous recommendations and revealed significantly reduced systematic uncertainties across most variables of interest. Inclusion of within-test repeat points in the 2019 test entry allowed for higher fidelity estimates of random uncertainty to be generated, as well. This collaboration between the facility, wind tunnel characterization, and MUA teams serves as an example of the data quality benefits that can be achieved through rigorous analysis of the sources of uncertainty in a ground-test facility.

Uncertainty↗

NASA NTRS1987

Measurement uncertainty for the Uniform Engine Testing Program conducted at NASA Lewis Research Center

An uncertainty analysis was conducted to determine the bias and precision errors and total uncertainty of measured turbojet engine performance parameters. The engine tests were conducted as part of the Uniform Engine Test Program which was sponsored by the Advisory Group for Aerospace Research and Development (AGARD). With the same engines, support hardware, and instrumentation, performance parameters were measured twice, once during tests conducted in test cell number 3 and again during tests conducted in test cell number 4 of the NASA Lewis Propulsion Systems Laboratory. The analysis covers 15 engine parameters, including engine inlet airflow, engine net thrust, and engine specific fuel consumption measured at high rotor speed of 8875 rpm. Measurements were taken at three flight conditions defined by the following engine inlet pressure, engine inlet total temperature, and engine ram ratio: (1) 82.7 kPa, 288 K, 1.0, (2) 82.7 kPa, 288 K, 1.3, and (3) 20.7 kPa, 288 K, 1.3. In terms of bias, precision, and uncertainty magnitudes, there were no differences between most measurements made in test cells number 3 and 4. The magnitude of the errors increased for both test cells as engine pressure level decreased. Also, the level of the bias error was two to three times larger than that of the precision error.

Abdelwahab, Mahmood↗

NASA NTRS2024

Uncertainty Budget for Detector-Based Absolute Radiometric Calibration With GLAMR

The accuracy of the absolute radiometric calibration (RadCal) for remote sensing instruments is essential to their wide range of applications. The uncertainty associated to the traditional source-based RadCal method is assessed at a 2% (k=1) or higher level for radiance measurement. To further improve the accuracy to meet the demands of climate studies, a detector-based approach using tunable lasers as a light source has been devised. The Goddard Laser for Absolute Measurement of Radiance, known as the GLAMR system, is a notable example of the incorporation of such technology. Using transfer radiometers calibrated at NIST as calibration standards, the absolute spectral response (ASR) function of a remote sensing instrument is measured with its uncertainty traceable to the International System of Units. This paper presents a comprehensive uncertainty analysis of the detector-based absolute RadCal using the GLAMR system. It identifies and examines uncertainty sources during the GLAMR RadCal test, including those from the GLAMR system, the testing configuration, and data processing methodologies. Analysis is carried out to quantify the contribution of each source and emphasize the most influential factors. It is shown that the calibration uncertainty of GLAMR RadCal can be better than 0.3% (k=1) in the wavelength range of 350-950 nm and 0.6% (k=1) between 950-2300 nm, with the exception of regions with strong water absorption. In addition, recommendations are made to refine the calibration process to further reduce the uncertainty.

Zhipeng Wang↗

NASA NTRS2020

Calibration Probe Uncertainty and Validation for the Hypersonic Material Environmental Test System

This paper presents an uncertainty analysis of the stagnation-point calibration probe surface predictions for conditions that span the performance envelope of the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System facility located at NASA Langley Research Center. A second-order stochastic expansion was constructed over 47 uncertain parameters to evaluate the sensitivities, identify the most significant uncertain variables, and quantify the uncertainty in the stagnation-point heat flux and pressure predictions of the calibration probe for a low- and high-enthalpy test condition. A sensitivity analysis showed that measurement bias uncertainty is the most significant contributor to the stagnation-point pressure and heat flux variance for the low-enthalpy condition. For the high-enthalpy condition, a paradigm shift in sensitivities revealed the computational fluid dynamics model input uncertainty as the main contributor. A comparison between the prediction and measurement of the stagnation-point conditions under uncertainty showed that there was evidence of statistical disagreement. A validation metric was proposed and applied to the prediction uncertainty to account for the statistical disagreement when compared to the possible stagnation-point heat flux and pressure measurements.

Brune, Andrew J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Simultaneous three-dimensional velocity and mixing measurements by use of laser Doppler velocimetry and fluorescence probes in a water tunnel

A water tunnel investigation was conducted to demonstrate the capabilities of a laser-based instrument that can measure velocity and fluorescence intensity simultaneously. Fluorescence intensity of an excited fluorescent dye is directly related to concentration level and is used to indicate the extent of mixing in flow. This instrument is a three-dimensional laser Doppler velocimeter (LDV) in combination with a fluorometer for measuring fluorescence intensity variations. This capability allows simultaneous flow measurements of the three orthogonal velocity components and mixing within the same region. Two different flows which were generated by two models were studied: a generic nonaxisymmetric nozzle propulsion simulation model with an auxiliary internal water source that generated a jet flow and an axisymmetric forebody model with a circular sector strake that generated a vortex flow. The off-body flow fields around these models were investigated in the Langley 16- by 24-Inch Water Tunnel. The experimental results were used to calculate 17 quantities that included mean and fluctuating velocities, Reynolds stresses, mean and fluctuating dye fluorescence intensities (proportional to concentration), and fluctuating velocity and dye concentration correlations. An uncertainty analysis was performed to establish confidence levels in the experimental results. In general, uncertainties in mean velocities varied between 1 and 7 percent of free-stream velocity; uncertainties in fluctuating velocities varied between 1 and 5 percent of reference values. The results show characteristics that are unique to each type of flow.

Neuhart, Dan H.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Rayleigh Scattering Diagnostic for Dynamic Measurement of Velocity and Temperature

A new technique for measuring dynamic gas velocity and temperature is described. The technique is based on molecular Rayleigh scattering of laser light, so no seeding of the flow is necessary. The Rayleigh scattered light is filtered with a fixed cavity, planar mirror Fabry-Perot interferometer. A minimum number of photodetectors were used in order to allow the high data acquisition rate needed for dynamic measurements. One photomultiplier tube (PMT) was used to measure the total Rayleigh scattering, which is proportional to the gas density. Two additional PMTs were used to detect light that passes through two apertures in a mask located in the interferometer fringe plane. An uncertainty analysis was used to select the optimum aperture parameters and to predict the measurement uncertainty due to photon shot-noise. Results of an experiment to measure the velocity of a subsonic free jet are presented.

Seasholtz, Richard G.↗

NASA NTRS2024

The Activity Profiles and Peak Flux of Radar Meteor Showers

Meteor showers are transient phenomena; a limited duration is what distinguishes a shower from a sporadic source. They do not, however, have clear start and end times; instead, shower activity gradually (or rapidly) increases over time, reaches a peak, and then decays. In this report, we examine the activity profiles of 38 meteor showers using 20 years of single-station shower fluxes from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). We find that a number of showers, such as the Southern delta Aquariids (SDAs), exhibit a broad maximum in activity rather than a sharp peak. We also find that approximately one-third of showers exhibit asymmetric activity profiles in which the rate in which activity rises prior to the peak differs from the rate at which it decays after the peak. We provide a functional form for meteor shower activity profiles that incorporates these features and use these profile fits to estimate each shower’s peak flux. This report also includes an uncertainty analysis for CMOR fluxes. This includes the first (to our knowledge) characterization of systematic uncertainty in radar meteor fluxes.

A V Moorhead↗