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DOE OSTI2022

Future Trends in Nuclear Physics Computing

In nuclear physics (NP) today the study of quarks, gluons and their strong interactions extends across a broad research program at a varied range of collaborative scales, from a few collaborators up to large experiments at scales comparable to those typical of high energy physics (HEP). Overall, the software and computing efforts vary accordingly, from pragmatic do-it-yourself approaches among a few, to substantial organized software and computing activities within large experiments. With new experiments starting up and on the horizon [1], and rapidly increasing data volumes [2, 3] and processing demands even at small experiments, the NP community has in recent years been thinking about the next generation of data processing and analysis workflows that will maximize the science output. One context for this discussion has been a series of workshops, “Future Trends in Nuclear Physics Computing” [4]. The most recent in this series took place in Fall 2020, organized by the authors together with colleagues. The workshop focused on identifying the unique aspects of software and computing in NP, and discussing how the NP community could strengthen common efforts and chart a path forward for the next decade, sure to be an exciting one with rich ongoing scientific programs at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Jefferson Lab (JLab), and other NP facilities, and culminating in datataking at the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) [5,6,7] in the early 2030s. Without claiming to present a collective view from the workshop and discussions since—fortunately this is not expected of us in this opinion editorial—we offer here our reflections on the topic, informed by the workshop and the summary we authored with our colleagues [8], as well as discussions and developments in the eventful time since.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

An ab initio molecular dynamics exploration of associates in Ba-Bi liquid with strong ordering trends

Fictive associates are widely used to describe and model liquid phases with strong ordering trends. However, little evidence is known about the assumed associates in most cases. In the present work, an ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) study is employed to investigate the characters of the Ba-Bi liquid, in which associates have been assumed in existing thermodynamic modeling. It is found that in the Ba rich melt, the Bi atoms are almost completely surrounded by Ba atoms. The Bi-centered coordination polyhedrons are strongly associated to crystalline structures of Ba 5 Bi 3 and Ba 4 Bi 3 with a longer lifetime than other polyhedrons during the AIMD simulations. In addition, these Bi-centered polyhedrons in Ba rich melt connect with each other through vertex, edge, face, and/or bipyramid sharing to form medium range orders (MRO). In the Bi rich melt, the Ba-centered polyhedrons also form MROs, but they are both structurally and compositionally diverse with a shorter lifetime. These findings from AIMD study provide evidences that there exist a strongly ordering Ba 4 Bi 3 associate and a weakly ordering BaBi 3 associate in the Ba-Bi liquid. Here, the predicted enthalpy of mixing in the liquid agrees well with the results by the CALPHAD modeling in the literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Chemical trends favoring interstitial cluster formation in bcc high-entropy alloys from first-principles calculations

Achieving high strength and ductility is a common goal in structural alloy design. Body-centered cubic high-entropy alloys (HEAs) commonly highlight the conflict between these properties, with stronger alloys being brittle and vice versa. Recent reports suggest interstitial solutes can be used to overcome this trade-off, in some cases providing both strength and ductility enhancements. This effect has been correlated with interstitial cluster formation, although the conditions favoring their formation remain incompletely understood. Using first-principles calculations of solution energies and diffusivities, we provide insights into thermodynamic and kinetic factors favoring interstitial solute clusters. Among C, N and O solutes, O interstitials display most desirable diffusion kinetics. Further, the results highlight the importance of local composition fluctuations in the HEAs to enable the formation of clusters of appreciable size. The results are explained in terms of bonding and distortion trends across solutes and HEA compositions to provide guidelines for alloy design.

Borges, Pedro P P O↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating grid stress and reliability in future electricity grids across a range of demand, generation mix, and weather trends

The reliability of power grids in the future will depend on how system planners account for the integration of new technologies, extreme weather events, and uncertainties in demand growth from increased electrification and data centers. This study introduces an open-source, multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that projects grid stress and reliability trends between 2020 and 2055 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. The framework integrates global to national energy-water-land dynamics with power plant siting and hourly grid operations modeling. We analyze future wholesale electricity price shocks and unserved energy events across eight scenarios spanning a range of population growth and economic change, generation mixes, and weather conditions. Our results show future grids with high percentage of non-renewable generation and strong economic growth are characterized by higher reliability and lower wholesale electricity prices than lower growth scenarios because of larger reliance on dispatchable generators and lower fossil fuel extraction costs. Scenarios with high percentage of renewable resources have lower median but more volatile wholesale electricity prices as well as more frequent and severe unserved energy events compared to scenarios relying more on dispatchable generators. These events occur because higher proportion of solar and wind energy causes net demand curves to deepen during midday (duck curves get progressively severe), exacerbating the challenge of meeting demand during summer evening peaks. This study suggests that robust and co-optimized transmission and energy storage planning could help maintain low wholesale electricity prices and high reliability levels in future electricity grids across uncertainties in generation mixes.

Electric grid reliability↗

DOE OSTI2022

Qualitative trend analysis based on a mixed-integer representation

Shape constrained spline fitting is a useful method to impose prior knowledge onto flexible semi-parametric models during parameter estimation. Most typically, the function shape is imposed through order restrictions on the regression coefficients. The intended shape is considered known or selected based on heuristic rules. In this study, we present a method to estimate the optimal set of order restrictions to segment a univariate data series into episodes with distinct shapes. This is also known as the qualitative trend analysis (QTA) problem. The obtained solution uses a trade-off between lack-of-fit and model complexity. Further, our practical implementation takes inspiration from the generalized order restricted information criterion (GORIC) for inequality-constrained model selection. From this, one learns (a) that QTA can be formulated as a mixed-integer quadratic program (MIQP) and (b) that the newly proposed mixed order restricted information criterion (MORIC) enables optimal segmentation. This is illustrated through didactic case studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Trends in best-in-class energy-efficient technologies for room air conditioners

Improving the efficiency of room air conditioners (RACs) could provide significant energy and associated emissions savings, particularly in emerging economies with hot climates where the cooling demand is expected to increase dramatically. To help accelerate efficiency improvements, this study identifies “best-in-class” high-efficiency RAC components and products. The findings show that manufacturers tend to minimize manufacturing costs by using RAC designs that are readily available or standardized to their production, and they share components across various models. High-efficiency RAC models use advanced compressor technologies optimized at a low frequency, large heat exchangers with thermodynamically effective materials and designs, highly efficient direct current fan motors, advanced metering devices, and smart sensors for temperature and humidity control. Recently RAC manufacturers have been improving seasonal efficiency – better reflecting part-load operation – especially via variable-speed (inverter) drives for compressor motors. Recent highest-efficiency RAC models use low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants, having transitioned from conventional high-GWP refrigerants, in regions where RACs that use these low-GWP refrigerants are commercially available. Recently demonstrated innovative technologies show trends toward smart hybrid designs, evaporative cooling, and solid-state materials beyond the conventional vapor-compression technology. This information could help policymakers improve their RAC market-transformation programs to align with the most-efficient global technology.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Facets of hydro power and future trends in a Nordic Context

Hydropower technologies bolster high penetration of variable renewable energies (VREs) in the net zero emissions scenarios. Nevertheless, there are various challenges to meeting the ambitious goal, such as stability, reliability, resiliency, security, lack of reactive power, voltage support and inertia, large-scale storage deployment and coordination, interconnectedness, demand-side response, higher thermal cycles with increased start/stops, and inadequate Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for system-wise VRE integration and profitability. This survey conducts a bottom-up analysis to unveil the opportunities to utilize hydropower facilities and disentangle the nested problem for intertwining design features, control algorithms, operation, optimization approaches, incentives, services, and market mechanisms using a three-pillar framework perspective: grid owners, power producers, and machine designers. The survey identified emerging trends in real-time and capacity markets, flexible power systems, and enhanced grid capabilities, including advanced voltage support and updated grid codes. These developments present significant opportunities for hydropower, such as achieving super-flexibility through hybridization, expanded reactive power capabilities, and advanced operational modes like a synchronous condenser and power adequator functionalities. These opportunities require novel design philosophies — including new winding, stator, and rotor configurations, optimized ventilation, and active cooling systems — to enhance performance under stressed grid and climate conditions. Finally, integrating climate and energy models for multi-basin optimization with finer spatial and temporal granularity enhances the planning accuracy for water management of hydropower while addressing environmental challenges. The review delivers helpful prospective suggestions and tools that would serve researchers, power engineers, and stakeholders in making decisions about hydropower technologies and services in 2050 and beyond.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Use of a Radiation Tumor Bed Boost After Breast-Conserving Surgery and Whole-Breast Irradiation: Time Trends and Correlates

We sought to evaluate time trends and correlates of the use of a radiation tumor bed boost (TBB) after breast-conserving surgery and either conventional or hypofractionated whole-breast irradiation (CWBI or HWBI) for patients with early stage breast cancer.