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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1974

Diurnal and seasonal trends in the incidence of Sudden Commencements (SC) and Sudden Impulses SI

Based on world data for the period 1 January 1955 to 31 December 1968, reports of 894 SC cases and 2152 SI cases were collected. A study was made of the diurnal and seasonal trends in the incidence of their appearances. It is shown that the diurnal trend is pronounced for all events with a maximum at (06-8)h universal time. The diurnal trend for SC in the resultant period is more pronounced. The seasonal trend in incidence of appearances of SC and SI is absent. Thus, geomagnetic disturbances of both SC and SI are monitored by world time. These results lead to the conclusion that the presence or absence of SC and SI during geomagnetic storms is determined not only by the nature of the corpuscular flux, the presence of shock waves and tangential discontinuities, but also by purely terrestrial conditions.

Nesmyanovich, E. I.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Analyses of atmospheric extinction data obtained by astronomers. I - A time-trend analysis of data with internal accidental errors obtained at four observatories

Long-term time-trend analysis was performed on astronomical atmospheric extinction data in wideband UBV and various narrow-band systems recorded at Cerro Tololo, Kitt Peak, Lick, and McDonald observatories. All of the data had to be transformed into uniform monochromatic extinction data before trend analysis could be performed. The paper describes the various reduction techniques employed. The time-trend analysis was then carried out by the method of least squares. A special technique, called 'histogram shaping', was employed to adjust for the fact that the errors of the reduced monochromatic extinction data were not essentially Gaussian. On the assumption that there are no compensatory background and local extinction changes, the best values obtained for extinction trends due to background aerosol changes during the years 1960 to 1972 are 0.006 + or - 0.013 (rms) and 0.009 + or - 0.009 (rms) stellar magnitudes per air mass per decade in the blue and yellow wavelength regions, respectively.

Taylor, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Oxidant and precursor trends in the metropolitan Los Angeles region

This paper describes recent historical trends in oxidant and precursors in the Los Angeles region. Control strategies and basinwide emission trends for nitrogen oxides and reactive hydrocarbons are documented year by year from 1965 to 1974. Trends in the geographic distribution of emissions are illustrated by computing net percentage emission changes over the decade for individual counties. The changes in emissions are compared with changes in ambient precursor concentrations and oxidant concentrations. We find that many of the changes in monitored air quality can be explained by trends in both total emissions and the spatial distribution of emissions.

Trijonis, J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Linear trends in Northern Hemisphere tropospheric geopotential height and temperature patterns

Gridded National Meteorological Center data for 500 mb geopotential height and 300-500 mb and 500-700 mb thickness for the period 1951-1978 are subjected to linear trend analyses. The analyses are carried out for each calendar month. Significant geographical and seasonal distributions of cooling and warming patterns are found. An atmospheric cooling trend over the North Pacific during the winter months is seen in a region where oceanic cooling has also been observed, but planetary-wave adjustments rather than ocean-atmosphere feedback mechanisms appear to be dominant in the atmospheric cooling on climatic time scales. Consistently large temperature trends are also seen over the continent of Asia. Comparisons between thickness trends in the layer 300-500 mb and those in the layer 500-700 mb reveal pronounced patterns of stabilization and destabilization.

Reiter, E. R.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Effects of fractional crystallization and cumulus processes on mineral composition trends of some lunar and terrestrial rock series

A plot of Mg of mafic minerals versus An of plagioclase in cumulate rocks from various lunar and terrestrial rock series shows each series to have a distinct curvilinear trend. The slopes of these trends vary from nearly vertical in the case of lunar anorthosites and Mg-norites to nearly horizontal in the case of gabbros from the mid-Atlantic ridge. Calculations based upon known major element partitioning between mafic minerals, plagioclase and subalkaline basaltic liquids indicate that fractional crystallization coupled with cotectic accumulation of mafic minerals and plagioclase will produce mineral composition trends on the Mg versus An diagram with slopes greater than 1 for cases where An is approximately greater than Mg. Furthermore, fractional crystallization of basaltic magmas with alkali concentrations approaching zero will produce near vertical Mg versus An trends. Therefore, the steep slopes of the lunar rock series are consistent with relatively simple fractionation processes. The relatively flat slope of mineral compositions from gabbros collected from the mid-Atlantic ridge at 26 deg N is inconsistent with simple fractionation processes, and calculations show that periodic refilling of a fractionating magma chamber with picritic magma cannot simply explain this flat slope either.

Longhi, J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Bomber design trends

Some basic trends in bomber aircraft are traced from the pre-World War I era to the present time. The historic review includes bombers of many countries. The primary discussion, however, will be based on U.S. bomber programs and, to the extent possible, on USSR bomber programs. The bomber aircraft will be examined in terms of performance and mission capability.Characteristics will include power or thrust loading, wing loading, maximum speed, cruising speed, weight and weight distribution, and payload. These trends can be used to indicate the rationale for certain design types. Performance characteristics can be used to indicate potential mission objectives. The overall design trends should be useful in revealing the influence of mission objectives, the influence of advanced technology and, in turn, may be useful in predicting likely future trends.

Spearman, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Design trends for Army/Air Force airplanes in the United States

Some design trends in Army/Air Force airplane systems in the U.S. are traced from the pre-World War 2 era to the present time. Various types of aircraft systems are reviewed with a view toward noting design features that were used. Some observations concerning the design trends indicate that some may be driven by advanced technology and some by a need for new mission requirements. In addition, it is noted that some design trends are evolutionary and result in an extension of service life or utility of existing systems. In other cases the design trends may be more revolutionary with the intent of creating a system with a new capability. Some examples are included of designs that did not proceed to production for reasons that sometimes were technical and sometimes were not.

Spearman, M. Leroy↗
NASA NTRS1989

Post World War II trends in tropical Pacific surface trades

Multidecadal time series of surface winds from central tropical Pacific islands are used to compute trends in the trade winds between the end of WWII and 1985. Over this period, averaged over the whole region, there is no statistically significant trend in speed or zonal or meridional wind (or pseudostress). However, there is some tendency, within a few degrees of the equator, toward weakening of the easterlies and increased meridional flow toward the equator. Anomalous conditions subsequent to the 1972-73 ENSO event make a considerable contribution to the long-term trends. The period 1974-80 has been noted previously to have been anomalous, and trends over that period are sharply greater than those over the longer records.

Harrison, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Is it possible to identify a trend in problem/failure data

One of the major obstacles in identifying and interpreting a trend is the small number of data points. Future trending reports will begin with 1983 data. As the problem/failure data are aggregated by year, there are just seven observations (1983 to 1989) for the 1990 reports. Any statistical inferences with a small amount of data will have a large degree of uncertainty. Consequently, a regression technique approach to identify a trend is limited. Though trend determination by failure mode may be unrealistic, the data may be explored for consistency or stability and the failure rate investigated. Various alternative data analysis procedures are briefly discussed. Techniques that could be used to explore problem/failure data by failure mode are addressed. The data used are taken from Section One, Space Shuttle Main Engine, of the Calspan Quarterly Report dated April 2, 1990.

Church, Curtis K.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Recent trends in stratospheric ozone - Implications of ozone and temperature correlation

The relation between ozone and temperature in the upper stratosphere is used to estimate the drift in the SBUV spectrometer on Nimbus-7 and the linear trend in ozone from 1979 to 1986. The ozone and temperature variabilities are coupled through chemical and dynamical processes. In the upper stratosphere they are anticorrelated through temperature-dependent loss rates, while in the lower stratosphere their variabilities are positively correlated through dynamical coupling. These relations are used to determine the ozone sensitivity to temperature and ozone trends in terms of temperature trends. It is shown that in the upper stratosphere (approximately 2 mbar), the eight-year trend in ozone is a manifestation of dynamical perturbations. It varies from about +4 percent at the equator to about -1 to -2 percent at high latitudes in both hemispheres.

Chandra, S.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The NASA trend analysis program

The four main areas of the NASA trend analysis program (problem/reliability, performance, supportability, and programmatic trending) are defined and illustrated with examples from Space Shuttle applications. Emphasis is on the programmatic-trending component of the program and several of the statistical techniques used. Also described is the NASA safety, reliability, maintainability, and quality assurance management information center, used to focus management attention on key near-term launch concerns and long-range mission trend issues.

Crawford, J. Larry↗
NASA NTRS1990

Five basic steps to problem trending

Five basic steps to problem trending evolved from experience in trending problems on Space Shuttle hardware are discussed: extracting data; constructing a Pareto chart of all failure modes; constructing normalized subsystem, component, and failure-mode trend charts; identifying trend direction; and providing a summary assessment. The five-step method has been useful for identifying failure modes of concern, evaluating the effectiveness of corrective actions, and determining funding allocation.

Bombara, Elwood L.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Temperature trends in the lower mesosphere

The largest atmospheric temperature changes due to the increase of greenhouse gases are expected in the 40 to 60 km altitude region, where enhanced infrared cooling decreases the temperature. Ten-year (1980-1990) temperature trends at 55 km and 0.4 mb, derived using data from the ground-based lidar at Haute Provence, (France), and the SSU-instrument channel 47X on several satellites, are presented. These data show temperature decreases that are as large and in some cases exceed predictions based on current models. At 44 deg N, the ground-based lidar and satellite techniques give a negative trend of -0.10 + or - 0.04 percent per year and -0.14 + or - 0.02 percent per year, respectively. Agreement between these two data sets based on different measurement techniques gives confidence in the detected trends at this latitude. Further analysis of the SSU 47X satellite data between 45 deg S and 45 deg N indicates a maximum decline of 0.16 percent per year near 30 deg N. A minimum trend decrease of 0.07 percent per year is detected between 20 and 30 deg S. Based on NOAA satellite radiance observations, these long-term temperature changes are larger than changes at any of the other stratospheric levels below 55 km monitored during this period.

Aikin, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Ground-based infrared measurements of HNO3 total column abundances - Long-term trend and variability

The long-term trend and variability of the total column amount of atmospheric nitric acid (HNO3) have been investigated. The study was based on time series of infrared solar absorption spectra recorded at two sites, the International Scientific Station of the Jungfraujoch (ISSJ) in the Swiss Alps (altitude 3.6 km, latitude 46.5 N, longitude 8.0 E) and the National Solar Observatory McMath solar telescope facility on Kitt Peak (altitude 2.1 km, latitude 31.9 N, longitude 111.6 W), Arizona. Measurements of HNO3 absorption features recorded at Kitt Peak between 1980 and 1990 and measurements of the same features in ISSJ solar spectra obtained in June 1951 and June 1986 to June 1990 provide quantitative estimates of the long-term trend in the HNO3 total vertical column. It is found that the trend deduced for each site is equal to zero within the measurement uncertainty. The modern ISSJ measurements show that the fitted trend is (-0.16 + or - 0.50) percent/yr, 2 sigma, which indicates that there has been no detectable change in HNO3 total column over three decades. The Kitt Peak measurements show marked variability in the HNO3 total column, but no obvious seasonal cycle is observed.

Rinsland, C. P.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Report of the International Ozone Trends Panel 1988, volume 2

Chapters on the following topics are presented: trends in stratospheric temperature; theory and observations- model simulations of the period 1955-1985; trends in source gases; trends in stratospheric minor constituents; trends in aerosol abundances and distribution; and observations and theories related to antarctic ozone.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1989

Trends in stratospheric temperature

Stratospheric temperatures for long-term and recent trends and the determination of whether observed changes in upper stratospheric temperatures are consistent with observed ozone changes are discussed. The long-term temperature trends were determined up to 30mb from radiosonde analysis (since 1970) and rocketsondes (since 1969 and 1973) up to the lower mesosphere, principally in the Northern Hemisphere. The more recent trends (since 1979) incorporate satellite observations. The mechanisms that can produce recent temperature trends in the stratosphere are discussed. The following general effects are discussed: changes in ozone, changes in other radiatively active trace gases, changes in aerosols, changes in solar flux, and dynamical changes. Computations were made to estimate the temperature changes associated with the upper stratospheric ozone changes reported by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument aboard Nimbus-7 and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) instruments.

Schoeberl, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Comparison of SBUV and SAGE II ozone profiles: Implications for ozone trends

Solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone profiles have been compared with Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II profiles over the period October 1984 through June 1990, when data are available from both instruments. SBUV measurements were selected to closely match the SAGE II latitude/longitude measurement pattern. There are significant differences between the SAGE II sunrise and the sunset zonal mean ozone profiles in the equatorial zone, particularly in the upper stratosphere, that may be connected with extreme SAGE II solar azimuth angles for tropical sunrise measurements. Calculation of the average sunset bias between SBUV and SAGE II ozone profiles shows that allowing for diurnal variation in Umkehr layer 10, SBUV and SAGE II agree to within +/- 5% for the entire stratosphere in the northern midlatitude zone. The worst agreement is seen at southern midlatitudes near the ozone peak (disagreements of +/- 10%), apparently the result of the SBUV ozone profile peaking at a lower altitude than SAGE. The integrated ozone columns (cumulative above 15 km) agree very well, to within +/- 2.3% in all zones for both sunset and sunrise measurements. A comparison of the time dependence of SBUV and SAGE II shows that there was less than +/- 5% relative drift over the 5.5 years for all altitudes except below 25 km, where the SBUV vertical resolution is poor. The best agreement with SAGE is seen in the integrated column ozone (cumulative above 15 km), where SAGE II has a 1% negative trend relative to SBUV over the comparison period. There is a persistent disagreement of the two instruments in Umkehr layers 9 and 10 of +/- 4% over the 5.5-year comparison period. In the equatorial zone this disagreement may be caused in part by a large positive trend (0.8 K per year) in the National Meteorologica Center temperatures used to convert the SAGE II measurement of ozone density versus altitude to a pressure scale for comparison with SBUV. In the middle stratosphere (30-40 km), SBUV shows a 2-4% negative drift relative to SAGE II. If the actual ozone trends are considered, SBUV and SAGE II agree in showing little ozone change (less than 2%) between 1984 and 1990, except in layer 3 where SAGE II measures a large ozone decrease. But over 11 years, SBUV measured a 7% per decade ozone decrease between 40 and 50 km, decreasing in magnitude at lower altitudes, in good agreement with 11-year trends derived from the average of 5 Umkehr stations.

Mcpeters, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Altitude dependence of stratospheric ozone trends based on Nimbus 7 SBUV data

A multiple regression statistical model is applied to estimate the altitude, latitude, and seasonal dependences of stratospheric ozone trends using 11.5 years of Nimbus 7 SBUV data for the period November 1978 to June 1990. In the upper stratosphere, the derived trends agree in both latitude dependence and approximate amplitude with published predictions from stratospheric models that consider gas-phase chemical processes together with the observed approx. 0.1 ppbV per year increase in tropospheric chlorine. The dominant contribution to column ozone trends occurs in the lower stratosphere where significant negative trends are present at latitudes greater than 20 deg in both hemispheres. The observed latitude dependence is qualitatively consistent with model predictions that include the effects of heterogeneous chemical ozone losses on lower stratospheric aerosols.

Hood, Lon L.↗