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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Evaluation of Integrated Demand Management Looking into Strategic & Tactical Flow Management

The motivation behind Integrated Demand Management (IDM) research is to explore possible improvements to United States National Airspace System (NAS) performance that could be realized through procedural integration of strategic traffic flow management capabilities, such as the Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP), and tactical capabilities, such as Time Based Flow Management (TBFM). An initial IDM concept for clear weather operations was developed and evaluated for potential benefits, including efficiency, delay reduction, predictability and throughput, and to identify any major issues that might represent a showstopper for a fielded application. Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) arrival operations provided a use case for concept development. EWR uses miles-in-trail (MIT) metering to regulate demand into TBFM during high volume operations, and short-haul flights are often penalized with excessive, last-minute ground delays when the overhead stream is saturated. IDM addresses this problem by replacing MIT conditioning with CTOP to better manage the demand delivery to the TBFM entry points. A quasi-real time high-fidelity simulation that would normally involve participants was conducted using heuristic-based procedures that mimicked operators behaviors instead. Five total conditions were compared: two baseline conditions with MIT delivery to TBFM entry points using two different TBFM settings; and three IDM conditions: one with airborne speed control using an Required Time of Arrival (RTA) capability, a second without RTA, and a third with no wind forecast errors. Results suggest that the IDM concept can deliver traffic more efficiently by shifting the delays from airborne to ground for both RTA and non-RTA conditions, while maintaining a target throughput rate. The results also suggest that with good predictability of airport capacity, excessive TBFM ground delay can be minimized by applying more strategic CTOP delay, increasing predictability for the airline operators. Overall, the results indicate that the implementation of an IDM concept under clear weather conditions can improve NAS system performance. Future IDM research aims to expand the concept to address demandcapacity imbalance d severe weather.

Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM)↗
NASA NTRS2019

Comparing Flood-Producing Catastrophic Hurricanes in GEOS: A Study of Juan 1985 and Harvey 2017

Hurricanes Juan (1985) and Harvey (2017) bear remarkable similarities because of the exceptional amount of accumulated precipitation over coastal regions in the Gulf, consequent to the peculiar and rare situation in which a hurricane stalls for several days on a coastal area, displaying minimal progress. This is particularly dangerous because: a) terrestrial drag affect only part of the circulation so that weakening is not as fast as when there is rapid motion inland; b) a part of the circulation remains over water and as such low-level moisture flux convergence is maintained; c) precipitation lasts for a very long time over the same area; d) moisture recycling from flooded areas further contributes to maintaining flood conditions. From the forecast perspective, hurricanes with track singularities such as stalling points, loops, or multiple landfalls over the same region are exceptionally difficult to predict because they result from small variations of opposing mechanisms and are therefore intrinsically unstable. Intensity fluctuations and track singularities are strongly coupled. The representation of fluxes undergoing differential drag (ocean vs. land) inside the same circulation is critically dependent upon resolution. Recent modeling development efforts within the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) have brought the horizontal resolution of the global cubed-sphere Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric model down to 12 km. This has led to innovative findings in the field of tropical cyclone (TC) modeling within a global framework. The GEOS atmospheric model and data assimilation system (DAS), used to produce the MERRA-2 (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis, has a "Replay" capability that adds a forcing term to the model equations to constrain it to follow a specified trajectory. This capability is used to produce global, downscaled versions of the 50 km MERRA-2 reanalysis at a 12.5 km resolution. The full DAS and replay modes both use the Incremental Analysis Update or IAU for applying an analysis increment to the model's background state four times each day at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z. In a full DAS mode, a six-hour free run of the model is made (Predictor Step), writing states that will be used as backgrounds or first-guesses for the analysis centered on 00Z. The Analysis system then produces its best estimate of the 00Z state by blending backgrounds with observations. The difference between this best estimate and the model's original first guess at 00Z is treated as an analysis increment and added uniformly as a forcing term to the model during a second, now forced, run of the 12Z to 03Z window, which produces the assimilated results. Replay mode is very similar, except only the 00Z background is needed from the predictor segment, which is thus half as long, and instead of doing an analysis, a previously analyzed state at 00Z is read in. The increment is then computed and applied to the corrector step in the same way as in the original DAS. When downscaling horizontal spatial filters can be applied to the "analysis" increment used to force the Corrector step, so as to reproduce the full meteorological state or selectively choose or discard certain forcings. In this presentation, full global hindcast simulations of Juan and operational forecasts of Harvey are compared.

Flooding↗
NASA NTRS2001

Role of Stratospheric Air in a Severe Weather Event: Analysis of Potential Vorticity and Total Ozone

The role of dry stratospheric air descending to low and middle tropospheric levels in a severe weather outbreak in the midwestern United States is examined using ACCEPT Eta model output, Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analyses, and Earth probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP/TOMS) total ozone data. While stratospheric air was not found to play a direct role in the convection, backward trajectories show stratospheric air descended to 800 hPa just west of the convection. Damaging surface winds not associated with thunderstorms also occurred in the region of greatest stratospheric descent. Small-scale features in the high-resolution total ozone data compare favorably with geopotential heights and potential vorticity fields, supporting the notion that stratospheric air descended to near the surface. A detailed vertical structure in the potential vorticity appears to be captured by small-scale total ozone variations. The capability of the total ozone to identify mesoscale features assists model verification. The total ozone data suggest biases in the RUC analysis and Eta forecast of this event. The total ozone is also useful in determining whether potential vorticity is of stratospheric origin or is diabatically generated in the troposphere.

Goering, Melissa A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Interval Management with Spacing to Parallel Dependent Runways (IMSPIDR) Experiment and Results

An area in aviation operations that may offer an increase in efficiency is the use of continuous descent arrivals (CDA), especially during dependent parallel runway operations. However, variations in aircraft descent angle and speed can cause inaccuracies in estimated time of arrival calculations, requiring an increase in the size of the buffer between aircraft. This in turn reduces airport throughput and limits the use of CDAs during high-density operations, particularly to dependent parallel runways. The Interval Management with Spacing to Parallel Dependent Runways (IMSPiDR) concept uses a trajectory-based spacing tool onboard the aircraft to achieve by the runway an air traffic control assigned spacing interval behind the previous aircraft. This paper describes the first ever experiment and results of this concept at NASA Langley. Pilots flew CDAs to the Dallas Fort-Worth airport using airspeed calculations from the spacing tool to achieve either a Required Time of Arrival (RTA) or Interval Management (IM) spacing interval at the runway threshold. Results indicate flight crews were able to land aircraft on the runway with a mean of 2 seconds and less than 4 seconds standard deviation of the air traffic control assigned time, even in the presence of forecast wind error and large time delay. Statistically significant differences in delivery precision and number of speed changes as a function of stream position were observed, however, there was no trend to the difference and the error did not increase during the operation. Two areas the flight crew indicated as not acceptable included the additional number of speed changes required during the wind shear event, and issuing an IM clearance via data link while at low altitude. A number of refinements and future spacing algorithm capabilities were also identified.

Baxley, Brian T.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of hurricane disturbance and increased temperature on carbon cycling and storage of a Puerto Rican forest: a mechanistic investigation of above- and belowground processes (Final Technical Report)

The overall goal of the Tropical Responses for Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) is to assess the effects of increasing temperature on tropical plant and soil carbon fluxes and storage as the forest recovers from major hurricane disturbance that occurred in September 2017. Ultimately, we aimed to reduce uncertainty and increase confidence with which tropical forests are represented in Earth System models to make more accurate global forecasts of future climate. We focused on both above- and belowground processes and explored temperature controls over critical aspects of carbon and nutrient cycling for tropical plants, soil, and microbes. TRACE is located in a wet tropical forest in the Luquillo Experimental Forest close to the USDA Forest Service Sabana Field Research Station in Luquillo, Puerto Rico. The warming treatment consists of six 4.7 m diameter plots. Three of the plots receive infrared warming and three have the same infrastructure but are not warmed (using ‘dummy’ heaters). Each plot was monitored from 2018-2023 to investigate two major questions: 1) Are there legacy effects of prior warming on forest recovery following hurricane disturbance? 2) Will the trajectory of forest recovery following disturbance be affected by warmer temperatures? Concurrent soil incubation experiments were conducted to enable more controlled mechanistic investigations of temperature response on microbial function. In sum, our goal was to use this novel climate manipulation experiment (the only of its kind in any tropical forest) and once-in-a-lifetime chance to assess how temperature and hurricane disturbance interact to affect coupled biogeochemical cycling in a tropical forest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Space-Based Ornithology - Studying Bird Migration and Environmental Change in North America

Natural fluctuations in the availability of critical stopover sites coupled with anthropogenic destruction of wetlands, land-use change, and anticipated losses due to climate change present migratory birds with a formidable challenge. Space based technology in concert with bird migration modeling and geographical information analysis yields new opportunities to shed light on the distribution and movement of organisms on the planet and their sensitivity to human disturbances and environmental changes. At the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, we are creating ecological forecasting tools for science and application users to address the consequences of loss of wetlands, flooding, drought or other natural disasters such as hurricanes on avian biodiversity and bird migration. We use an individual-based bird biophysical migration model, driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate and hydrologic data, and biological field observations to study migratory bird responses to environmental change in North America. Simulation allows us to study bird migration across multiple scales and can be linked to mechanistic processes describing the time and energy budget states of migrating birds. We illustrate our approach by simulating the spring migration of pectoral sandpipers from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska. Mean stopover length and trajectory patterns are consistent with field observations.

Smith, James A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

The impact of Los Angeles Basin pollution and stratospheric intrusions on the surrounding San Gabriel Mountains as seen by surface measurements, lidar, and numerical models

In this work, the impact of Los Angeles Basin pollution transport and stratospheric intrusions on the surface ozone levels observed in the San Gabriel Mountains is investigated based on a combination of surface and lidar measurements as well as WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry) and WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) runs. The number of days with observed surface ozone levels exceeding the National Ambient Air Quality Standards exhibit a clear seasonal pattern, with a maximum during summer, when models suggest a minimum influence of stratospheric intrusions and the largest impact from Los Angeles Basin pollution transport. Additionally, measured and modeled surface ozone and PM10 were analyzed as a function of season, time of the day, and wind direction. Measurements and models are in good qualitative agreement, with maximum surface ozone observed for southwest and west winds. For the prevailing summer wind direction, slightly south of the ozone maximum and corresponding to south-southwest winds, lower ozone levels were observed. Back trajectories suggest that this is associated with transport from the central Los Angeles Basin, where titration limits the amount of surface ozone. A quantitative comparison of the lidar profiles with WRF-Chem and WACCM models revealed good agreement near the surface, with models showing an increasing positive bias as function of altitude, reaching 75 % at 15 km above sea level. Finally, three selected case studies covering the different mechanisms affecting the near-surface ozone concentration over the San Gabriel Mountains, namely stratospheric intrusions and pollution transport, are analyzed based on surface and ozone lidar measurements, as well as co-located ceilometer measurements and models.

Impact↗
NASA NTRS2013

Inclusion of Linearized Moist Physics in Nasa's Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation Tools

Inclusion of moist physics in the linearized version of a weather forecast model is beneficial in terms of variational data assimilation. Further, it improves the capability of important tools, such as adjoint-based observation impacts and sensitivity studies. A linearized version of the relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) convection scheme has been developed and tested in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation tools. A previous study of the RAS scheme showed it to exhibit reasonable linearity and stability. This motivates the development of a linearization of a near-exact version of the RAS scheme. Linearized large-scale condensation is included through simple conversion of supersaturation into precipitation. The linearization of moist physics is validated against the full nonlinear model for 6- and 24-h intervals, relevant to variational data assimilation and observation impacts, respectively. For a small number of profiles, sudden large growth in the perturbation trajectory is encountered. Efficient filtering of these profiles is achieved by diagnosis of steep gradients in a reduced version of the operator of the tangent linear model. With filtering turned on, the inclusion of linearized moist physics increases the correlation between the nonlinear perturbation trajectory and the linear approximation of the perturbation trajectory. A month-long observation impact experiment is performed and the effect of including moist physics on the impacts is discussed. Impacts from moist-sensitive instruments and channels are increased. The effect of including moist physics is examined for adjoint sensitivity studies. A case study examining an intensifying Northern Hemisphere Atlantic storm is presented. The results show a significant sensitivity with respect to moisture.

Convection↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ecological acclimation: A framework to integrate fast and slow responses to climate change

Ecological responses to climate change occur across vastly different time-scales, from minutes for physiological plasticity to decades or centuries for community turnover and evolutionary adaptation. Accurately predicting the range of ecosystem trajectories will require models that incorporate both fast processes that may keep pace with climate change and slower ones likely to lag behind and generate disequilibrium dynamics. However, the knowledge necessary for this integration is currently fragmented across disciplines. We develop ‘ecological acclimation’ as a unifying framework to emphasize the similarity of dynamics driven by processes operating on dramatically different time-scales and levels of biological organization. The framework focuses on ecoclimate sensitivities, measured as the change in an ecological response variable per unit of climate change. Acclimation processes acting at different time-scales cause these sensitivities to shift in magnitude and even direction over time. We highlight shifting ecoclimate sensitivities in case studies from diverse ecosystems, including terrestrial plant communities, coral reefs and soil microbiomes. Models predicting future ecosystem states inevitably make assumptions about acclimation processes; these assumptions must be explicit for users to evaluate whether a model is appropriate for a given forecast horizon. Similarly, decision frameworks that clearly account for multiple acclimation processes and their distinct time-scales will help natural resource managers plan for ecological impacts of climate change from years to many decades into the future. We outline a synthetic research programme focused on the time-scales of ecological acclimation to reduce uncertainty in ecological forecasts.

climate adaptation↗
NASA NTRS2018

Progress Towards Integrating the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) Dynamical Core Tangent Linear and Adjoint Models into JEDI

The Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) -- led by the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) -- is an inter-organizational endeavor to develop a common framework for performing data assimilation. This extensive framework will ultimately provide solvers, observation operators, interpolation and model interfaces using object oriented modeling. Two partners involved in JEDI use or plan to use the Finite Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) dynamical core to produce weather forecasts; these are NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office and NOAA's National Center for Environment Prediction. In this work we present an update on ongoing efforts to integrate the FV3 tangent linear and adjoint models into the prototype JEDI framework. We setup and run a simple cycled data assimilation experiment using 4DVAR on the cubed sphere grid and with the FV3 tangent linear and adjoint models. Development of the observation operators for JEDI is separately underway. Instead of using real observations a simplified set of simulated observations will be used. We discuss the steps required to bring the FV3 linearized model into the object oriented framework and consider what would be the computational requirements of running this configuration for an operational system. FV3 uses a small time-step to ensure that small scales are well resolved, however this presents design challenges when running 4DVAR with the adjoint. An approach to storing the FV3 model trajectory has been developed that maintains the flexibility of using automatic differentiation. We discuss how this approach is incorporated into the framework. Other important uses of adjoint models include computing observation impacts and singular vectors, we consider how these tools can be included in JEDI.

Holdaway, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS2003

Large Scale Water Vapor Sources Relative to the October 2000 Piedmont Flood

Very intense mesoscale or synoptic-scale rainfall events can occasionally be observed in the Mediterranean region without any deep cyclone developing over the areas affected by precipitation. In these perplexing cases the synoptic situation can superficially look similar to cases in which very little precipitation occurs. These situations could possibly baffle the operational weather forecasters. In this article, the major precipitation event that affected Piedmont (Italy) between 13 and 16 October 2000 is investigated. This is one of the cases in which no intense cyclone was observed within the Mediterranean region at any time, only a moderate system was present, and yet exceptional rainfall and flooding occurred. The emphasis of this study is on the moisture origin and transport. Moisture and energy balances are computed on different space- and time-scales, revealing that precipitation exceeds evaporation over an area inclusive of Piedmont and the northwestern Mediterranean region, on a time-scale encompassing the event and about two weeks preceding it. This is suggestive of an important moisture contribution originating from outside the region. A synoptic and dynamic analysis is then performed to outline the potential mechanisms that could have contributed to the large-scale moisture transport. The central part of the work uses a quasi-isentropic water-vapor back trajectory technique. The moisture sources obtained by this technique are compared with the results of the balances and with the synoptic situation, to unveil possible dynamic mechanisms and physical processes involved. It is found that moisture sources on a variety of atmospheric scales contribute to this event. First, an important contribution is caused by the extratropical remnants of former tropical storm Leslie. The large-scale environment related to this system allows a significant amount of moisture to be carried towards Europe. This happens on a time- scale of about 5-15 days preceding the Piedmont event. Second, water-vapor intrusions from the African Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and evaporation from the eastern Atlantic contribute on the 2-5 day time-scale. The large-scale moist dynamics appears therefore to be one important factor enabling a moderate Mediterranean cyclone to produce heavy precipitation. Finally, local evaporation from the Mediterranean, water-vapor recycling, and orographically-induced low-level convergence enhance and concentrate the moisture over the area where heavy precipitation occurs. This happens on a 12-72 hour time-scale.

Turato, Barbara↗
NASA NTRS2019

Integrating Remote Sensing Observations with NASA's GEOS-5 Modeling Framework in Support of Retrospective Analyses and Seasonal Prediction of Biosphere-Atmosphere CO2 Flux

The absorption of nearly half of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by terrestrial and marine ecosystems has played a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, a persistent lack of understanding of these uptake processes impedes attribution, and thereby introduces large uncertainties into projections of the trajectory of carbon and climate in coming decades. A better understanding and quantification of the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon flux between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial biospheres is critically needed to improve predictions from Earth system models. We propose to bring together a diverse suite of remote sensing observations, mechanistic models, and NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) model to address two objective 1) quantify the processes controlling the temporal variability of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 flux on seasonal and interannual timescales from 1989 to 2018 and 2) evaluating the predictability of the components of carbon flux on seasonal timescales. Because GEOS-5 has been developed to incorporate a variety of Earth system observations and includes a complete and physically consistent depiction of the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon cycles, it represents a unique and ideal synthesis framework for this effort. By expanding the realism of processes that could be included in GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts, this effort supports NASA's goals toward an integrated Earth system modeling and prediction framework.We propose to integrate a number of observations into the GEOS-5 modeling system to refine retrospective estimates of both terrestrial and marine carbon flux and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of climate drivers on terrestrial carbon flux. This will include assimilating several satellite ocean color products in the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) to improve the representation of ocean biology. We will also utilize remote sensing datasets to increase the temporal resolution of global land-use change estimates and fire emissions to better constrain the temporal variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This information will be incorporated into two NASA terrestrial biosphere models Catchment-CN, a dynamic vegetation model that is integrated within GEOS-5 and the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, a core modeling resource supporting the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission to map biomass. Fluxes will be evaluated through 1) comparison to top-down flux estimates inferred from surface CO2 observations and 2) comparison against available aircraft and satellite observations.By combining predictions of net ecosystem exchange and air-sea CO2 flux from land and ocean models with statistical predictions of land use change, fire, and fossil fuel emissions, we propose to create the first dynamical CO2 forecast on seasonal timescales. Because of the experimental nature of this endeavor, an important project objective will be to evaluate the limits to the predictability of different carbon cycle processes over lead times of 1-12 months using different satellite and surface data streams.

Ott, Lesley↗
NASA NTRS2015

The String Stability of a Trajectory-Based Interval Management Algorithm in the Midterm Airspace

NASA's first Air Traffic Management (ATM) Technology Demonstration (ATD-1) was created to facilitate the transition of mature ATM technologies from the laboratory to operational use. The technologies selected for demonstration are the Traffic Management Advisor with Terminal Metering (TMA-TM), which provides precise time-based scheduling in the terminal airspace; Controller Managed Spacing (CMS), which provides terminal controllers with decision support tools enabling precise schedule conformance; and Interval Management (IM), which consists of flight deck automation that enables aircraft to achieve or maintain a precise spacing interval behind a target aircraft. As the percentage of IM equipped aircraft increases, controllers may provide IM clearances to sequences, or strings, of IM-equipped aircraft. It is important for these strings to maintain stable performance. This paper describes an analytic analysis of the string stability of the latest version of NASA's IM algorithm and a fast-time simulation designed to characterize the string performance of the IM algorithm. The analytic analysis showed that the spacing algorithm has stable poles, indicating that a spacing error perturbation will be reduced as a function of string position. The fast-time simulation investigated IM operations at two airports using constraints associated with the midterm airspace, including limited information of the target aircraft's intended speed profile and limited information of the wind forecast on the target aircraft's route. The results of the fast-time simulation demonstrated that the performance of the spacing algorithm is acceptable for strings of moderate length; however, there is some degradation in IM performance as a function of string position.

Swieringa, Kurt A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) in transportation modeling simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed and realistic information on agents’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Various synthetic population generators have been proposed to address this need. However, most of those currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature and do not account for the dynamics within households and individuals as they progress through life events over time. This is a major shortcoming, as literature has shown that transportation decisions are affected by the transition between and co-occurrence of life cycle events. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this issue, they are developed using cross-sectional data and capture only a small set of life cycle events and their interdependence. Addressing these drawbacks, we propose a demographic microsimulator (DEMOS) that captures the “continuum of life” by considering a range of household- and individual-level life cycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, one of the world’s longest-running longitudinal surveys. The DEMOS submodels consider key life cycle events that are influenced by agents’ demographic variables. DEMOS is applied to evolve the population of the San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results demonstrate how DEMOS generates life trajectories and how DEMOS outputs match the observed demographic trends. DEMOS is expected to enable longitudinal analysis in the context of ABMs and expand ABMs analyses relating to dynamic processes such as household-level vehicle transactions.

Demographic evolution↗
NASA NTRS2008

Storm Surge Measurement with an Airborne Scanning Radar Altimeter

Over the years, hurricane track and intensity forecasts and storm surge models and the digital terrain and bathymetry data they depend on have improved significantly. Strides have also been made in knowledge of the detailed variation of the surface wind field driving the surge. The area of least improvement has been in obtaining data on the details of the temporal/spatial variation of the storm surge dome of water as it evolves and inundates the land to evaluate the performance of the numerical models. Tide gages in the vicinity of the landfall are frequently destroyed by the surge. Survey crews dispatched after the event provide no temporal information and only indirect indications of the maximum surge envelope over land. The landfall of Hurricane Bonnie on 26 August 1998, with a surge less than 2 m, provided an excellent opportunity to demonstrate the potential benefits of direct airborne measurement of the temporal/spatial evolution of storm surge. Despite a 160 m variation in aircraft altitude, an 11.5 m variation in the elevation of the mean sea surface relative to the ellipsoid over the flight track, and the tidal variation over the 5 hour data acquisition interval, a survey-quality Global Positioning System (GPS) aircraft trajectory allowed the NASA Scanning Radar Altimeter carried by a NOAA hurricane research aircraft to produce storm surge measurements that generally fell between the predictions of the NOAA SLOSH model and the North Carolina State University storm surge model.

Wright, C. W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Elevated Water Vapor Signal Associated With the Free Tropospheric Biomass Burning Plume Over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean

In southern Africa, widespread agricultural fires produce substantial biomass burning (BB) emissions over the region. The seasonal smoke plumes associated with these emissions are then advected westward over the persistent stratocumulus cloud deck in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) Ocean, resulting in aerosol effects which vary with time and location. Much work has focused on the effects of these aerosol plumes, but previous studies have also described an elevated free tropospheric water vapor signal over the SEA. Water vapor influences climate in its own right, and it is especially important to consider atmospheric water vapor when quantifying aerosol–cloud interactions and aerosol radiative effects. Here we present airborne observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign over the SEA Ocean. In observations collected from multiple independent instruments on the NASA P-3 aircraft (from near-surface to 6–7 km), we observe a strongly linear correlation between pollution indicators (carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol loading) and atmospheric water vapor content, seen at all altitudes above the boundary layer. The focus of the current study is on the especially strong correlation observed during the ORACLES-2016 deployment (out of Walvis Bay, Namibia), but a similar relationship is also observed in the August 2017 and October 2018 ORACLES deployments. Using reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and specialized WRF-Chem simulations, we trace the plume–vapor relationship to an initial humid, smoky continental source region, where it mixes with clean, dry upper tropospheric air and then is subjected to conditions of strong westward advection, namely the southern African easterly jet (AEJ-S). Our analysis indicates that air masses likely left the continent with the same relationship between water vapor and carbon monoxide as was observed by aircraft. This linear relationship developed over the continent due to daytime convection within a deep continental boundary layer (up to ∼5–6 km) and mixing with higher-altitude air, which resulted in fairly consistent vertical gradients in CO and water vapor, decreasing with altitude and varying in time, but this water vapor does not originate as a product of the BB combustion itself. Due to a combination of conditions and mixing between the smoky, moist continental boundary layer and the dry and fairly clean upper-troposphere air above (∼6 km), the smoky, humid air is transported by strong zonal winds and then advected over the SEA (to the ORACLES flight region) following largely isentropic trajectories. Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) back trajectories support this interpretation. This work thus gives insights into the conditions and processes which cause water vapor to covary with plume strength. Better understanding of this relationship, including how it varies spatially and temporally, is important to accurately quantify direct, semi-direct, and indirect aerosol effects over this region.

Kristina Pistone↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Lagrangian trajectory view on transport and mixing processes between the eye, eyewall, and environment using a high resolution simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998)

The transport and mixing characteristics of a large sample of air parcels within a mature and vertically sheared hurricane vortex is examined. Data from a high-resolution (2 km grid spacing) numerical simulation of "real-case" Hurricane Bonnie (1998) is used to calculate Lagrangian trajectories of air parcels in various subdomains of the hurricane (namely, the eye, eyewall, and near-environment) to study the degree of interaction (transport and mixing) between these subdomains. It is found that 1) there is transport and mixing from the low-level eye to the eyewall that carries high- Be air which can enhance the efficiency of the hurricane heat engine; 2) a portion of the low-level inflow of the hurricane bypasses the eyewall to enter the eye, that both replaces the mass of the low-level eye and lingers for a sufficient time (order 1 hour) to acquire enhanced entropy characteristics through interaction with the ocean beneath the eye; 3) air in the mid- to upper-level eye is exchanged with the eyewall such that more than half the air of the eye is exchanged in five hours in this case of a sheared hurricane; and 4) that one-fifth of the mass in the eyewall at a height of 5 km has an origin in the mid- to upper-level environment where thet(sub e) is much less than in the eyewall, which ventilates the ensemble average eyewall theta(sub e) by about 1 K. Implications of these findings to the problem of hurricane intensity forecasting are discussed.

Cram, Thomas A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Satellite Conjunction Assessment, Risk Analysis and Collision Avoidance Best Practices: The History, Evolution and Opportunities

Since Explorer 1 was launched on January 31, 1958, the United States (U.S.) has reaped the benefits of space exploration. New markets and new technologies have spurred the economy and changed lives in many ways across the national security, civil, and commercial sectors. Space technologies and space-based capabilities now provide global communications, navigation and timing, weather forecasting, and more. Space exploration also presents challenges that impact not only the U.S. but also its allies and other partners. A significant increase in the volume and diversity of activity in space means that it is becoming increasingly congested. Emerging commercial ventures such as satellite servicing, in-space manufacturing, and tourism as well as new technologies enabling small satellites and large constellations of satellites present serious challenges for safely and responsibly using space in a stable, sustainable manner. To meet these challenges, the U.S. seeks to improve global awareness of activity in space by publicly sharing flight safety-related information and by coordinating its own on-orbit activity in a safer, more responsible manner. It seeks to bolster stability and reduce current and future operational on-orbit risks so that space is sustained for future generations. To this end, new and better Space Situational Awareness (SSA) capabilities are needed to keep pace with the increased congestion, and the U.S. seeks to create a dynamic environment that encourages and rewards commercial providers who improve these capabilities. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Best Practices Handbook reflects how NASA currently operates, which has evolved over time. Consideration is given to important topics such as spacecraft and constellation design; spacecraft “trackability;” pre-launch preparation and early launch activities; on-orbit collision avoidance; and automated trajectory guidance and maneuvering. This talk aims to present examples of responsible practices for spacecraft Owners/Operators (O/O) to consider for lowering collision risks and operating safely in space (from LEO and beyond) in a stable and sustainable manner. As technology and innovation continues to improve upon existing capabilities, what kind of new challenges are presented in the SSA community? Can space exploration and commercial ventures thrive while keeping paramount the safety and protection of the space environment? What are the challenges and opportunities that need to be addressed and considered for space situational awareness in Cis-Lunar Space? It may prove useful for entities offering, or intending to offer, SSA or Conjunction Assessment (CA) services to consider such examples of responsible practices to protect the space environment for future use by all.

Collision Avoidance↗