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NASA NTRS1993

A satellite-borne radar wind sensor (RAWS)

Modeling global atmospheric circulations and forecasting the weather would improve if worldwide information on winds aloft were available. Accurate prediction of weather is important to agriculture, shipping, air traffic, and many other fields. Global system models of climate are of great importance. Current global atmospheric models use pressure measurements and thermodynamic properties to calculate the effects of wind for use in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Inputs to the NWP models are temperature, pressure and wind velocities at different heights. Clearly direct wind measurements could significantly improve the NWP model performance. The RAdar Wind Sounder (RAWS) program at the University of Kansas is a study of the feasibility and the trade-offs in the design of a space-based radar system to measure wind vectors. This can be done by measuring the Doppler shift of cloud and rain returns from three or more points and calculating the components of the wind vector. The RAWS study to date uses the candidate system selected after preliminary study of frequencies and sensitivities. Two frequencies chosen, 10 and 35 GHz, allow higher sensitivity for clouds and more penetration for rain. The past year was devoted to modeling the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) achievable for the two frequencies. The determination of SNR versus cloud penetration depth used a cloud backscattering and attenuation model in the appropriate radar equation. Calculations assumed reasonable losses in reception and transmission, in addition to the atmospheric attenuation. We discovered that ice clouds provide a higher SNR than previously calculated, but some water clouds give lower SNRs than we calculated before. One of the primary issues in the SNR calculation was the choice of the drop size distribution. Although Xin used several distributions (e.g., log normal, Khrigian and Mazin), this year we used the Deirmendjian cloud model. SNR versus cloud penetration plots were generated to validate the candidate system. Rain, which appears in the cloud models at the lower altitudes, provides ample SNR, as do the higher clouds composed of ice particles. However, in some cloud situations we found the sensitivity for the clouds was marginal or inadequate. At 35 GHz, two of the cloud models characterized by 1 to 2 g/cu m of water content at altitudes extending from 150 to 1500 meters, produced a sufficient SNR. Other models, however, with water contents ranging from 0.5 to 4 g/cu m and altitudes up to 4000 meters, exhibit SNR of -3 to -23 dB, largely because of attenuation in the upper cloud layers. These results coupled with the lower SNR at 10 GHz, led to an investigation of alternate frequencies. The rain present beneath these clouds provides adequate SNR at 10 GHz, and in most cases, at GHz.

Moore, Richard K.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Cockpit weather information needs

The primary objective is to develop an advanced pilot weather interface for the flight deck and to measure its utilization and effectiveness in pilot reroute decision processes, weather situation awareness, and weather monitoring. Identical graphical weather displays for the dispatcher, air traffic control (ATC), and pilot crew should also enhance the dialogue capabilities for reroute decisions. By utilizing a broadcast data link for surface observations, forecasts, radar summaries, lightning strikes, and weather alerts, onboard weather computing facilities construct graphical displays, historical weather displays, color textual displays, and other tools to assist the pilot crew. Since the weather data is continually being received and stored by the airborne system, the pilot crew has instantaneous access to the latest information. This information is color coded to distinguish degrees of category for surface observations, ceiling and visibilities, and ground radar summaries. Automatic weather monitoring and pilot crew alerting is accomplished by the airborne computing facilities. When a new weather information is received, the displays are instantaneously changed to reflect the new information. Also, when a new surface or special observation for the intended destination is received, the pilot crew is informed so that information can be studied at the pilot's discretion. The pilot crew is also immediately alerted when a severe weather notice, AIRMET or SIGMET, is received. The cockpit weather display shares a multicolor eight inch cathode ray tube and overlaid touch panel with a pilot crew data link interface. Touch sensitive buttons and areas are used for pilot selection of graphical and data link displays. Time critical ATC messages are presented in a small window that overlays other displays so that immediate pilot alerting and action can be taken. Predeparture and reroute clearances are displayed on the graphical weather system so pilot review of weather along the route can be accomplished prior to pilot acceptance of the clearance. An ongoing multiphase test series is planned for testing and modifying the graphical weather system. Preliminary data shows that the nine test subjects considered the graphical presentation to be much better than their current weather information source for situation awareness, flight safety, and reroute decision making.

Scanlon, Charles H.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Predicting the impacts of new technology aircraft on international air transportation demand

International air transportation to and from the United States was analyzed. Long term and short term effects and causes of travel are described. The applicability of econometric methods to forecast passenger travel is discussed. A nomograph is developed which shows the interaction of economic growth, airline yields, and quality of service in producing international traffic.

Ausrotas, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS2021

LMI Automated Air Cargo Operations Market Research and Forecast

Air cargo companies and aircraft manufacturers are making significant investments to enable the movement of cargo via various levels of automated aircraft, such as aircraft with simplified operations requiring a pilot, remotely monitored or piloted aircraft, and fully autonomous aircraft. These investments will enable greater utilization of aircraft while unlocking new air markets traditionally served by ground transportation only. Many cargo companies and aerospace experts envision an operating environment where a single pilot can remotely pilot numerous aircraft for significant increases in aircraft utilization. The future operating environment is also expected to include air cargo companies flying smaller aircraft from airports and distribution centers outside of major U.S. cities directly to city centers, avoiding congested roads and increasing the velocity of cargo shipments, particularly those that are high-value, time-sensitive, and security sensitive (e.g., pharmaceuticals). These are just a few benefits and use cases cargo companies and aerospace experts see with the advancement of automated aircraft. To better understand industry’s direction, NASA asked the LMI team to research the forecasted market, timeline, risks, and opportunities for integrating unmanned air cargo vehicles into the National Airspace System (NAS) for the development and prioritization of the NASA Air Traffic Management Exploration’s research portfolio. To begin the market assessment, we gathered data via numerous interviews with key stakeholders and subject matter experts and literature reviews. We then incorporated the data into a custom-developed systems dynamics model and visualization dashboard. The systems dynamics model classifies the size of the market (e.g., overall fleet size of automated aircraft) for four distinct use cases over the next 20 years. The model projects the year in which various types of automated aircraft will enter the commercial cargo market based on our team’s collective research on when the aircraft will become viable due to manufacturing and certification timelines and the lifespan of current, traditional aircraft in service, to name a few factors. While this report defines our team’s estimated timeline of entry and growth, the model is dynamic—it enables NASA users to change variables based on future-year events. If the necessary technology does not mature in accordance with our assumptions, then NASA can change the entry of service point to a future year to evaluate the changes in market size in the out years. This flexibility will be key to deciding when and how NASA should invest in various areas.

air traffic management↗

NASA NTRS2016

Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool Development

NASA is developing the Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool (FACT) to support airline and airport operations during winter storms. The goal is to reduce flight delays and cancellations due to winter weather. FACT concentrates relevant information from the Internet and FAA databases on one screen for easy access. It provides collaboration tools for those managing the winter weather event including the airline operations center, airport authority (runway treatment), the Federal Aviation Administration air traffic control tower, and de-icing operators. Prediction tools are being added to improve FACT capabilities including one that anticipates changes in airport departure rates from weather forecasts. We have formed two user teams from affected airports to guide the design and evaluate the web-based prototype. Future work includes adding more automated capabilities and conducting a simulation to evaluate FACT in a realistic environment.

Mogford, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2019

Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool

NASA is developing the Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool (FACT) to support airline and airport operations during winter storms. The goal is to reduce flight delays and cancellations due to winter weather. FACT concentrates relevant information from the Internet and FAA databases on one screen for easy access. It provides collaboration tools for those managing the winter weather event including the airline operations center, airport authority (runway treatment), the Federal Aviation Administration air traffic control tower, and de-icing operators. Prediction tools are being added to improve FACT capabilities including one that anticipates changes in airport departure rates from weather forecasts. Future work includes adding more automated capabilities and collaborating with industry.

Mogford, Richard H.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool Development

Mogford, Richard↗

NASA NTRS1986

US long distance fiber optic networks: Technology, evolution and advanced concepts. Volume 1: Executive summary

Over the past two decades, fiber optics has emerged as a highly practical and cost-efficient communications technology. Its competitiveness vis-a-vis other transmission media, especially satellite, has become a critical question. This report studies the likely evolution and application of fiber optic networks in the United States to the end of the century. The outlook for the technology of fiber systems is assessed and forecast, scenarios of the evolution of fiber optic network development are constructed, and costs to provide service are determined and examined parametrically as a function of network size and traffic carried. Volume 1 consists of the Executive Summary. Volume 2 focuses on fiber optic technology and long distance fiber optic networks. Volume 3 develops a traffic and financial model of a nationwide long distance transmission network. Among the study's most important conclusions are: revenue requirements per circuit for LATA-to-LATA fiber optic links are less than one cent per call minute; multiplex equipment, which is likely to be required in any competing system, is the largest contributor to circuit costs; the potential capacity of fiber optic cable is very large and as yet undefined; and fiber optic transmission combined with other network optimization schemes can lead to even lower costs than those identified in this study.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1996

High-Speed Civil Transport Forecast: Simulated Airlines Scenarios for Mach 1.6, Mach 2.0, and Mach 2.4 Configurations for Year 2015

The report describes the development of a database of fuel burn and emissions from projected High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) fleets that reflect actual airlines' networks, operational requirement, and traffic flow as operated by simulated world wide airlines for Mach 1.6, 2.0, and 2.4 HSCT configurations. For the year 2015, McDonnell Douglas Corporation created two supersonic commercial air traffic networks consisting of origin-destination city pair routes and associated traffic levels. The first scenario represented a manufacturing upper limit producible HSCT fleet availability by year 2015. The fleet projection of the Mach 2.4 configuration for this scenario was 1059 units with a traffic capture of 70 percent. The second scenario focused on the number of units that can minimally be produced by the year 2015. Using realistic production rates, the HSCT fleet projection amounts to 565 units. The traffic capture associated with this fleet was estimated at 40 percent. The airlines network was extracted from the actual networks of 21 major world airlines. All the routes were screened for suitability for HSCT operations. The route selection criteria included great circle distance, difference between flight path distance and great circle distance to avoid overland operations, and potential flight frequency.

Metwally, Munir↗

NASA NTRS2004

Computationally-Efficient Minimum-Time Aircraft Routes in the Presence of Winds

A computationally efficient algorithm for minimizing the flight time of an aircraft in a variable wind field has been invented. The algorithm, referred to as Neighboring Optimal Wind Routing (NOWR), is based upon neighboring-optimal-control (NOC) concepts and achieves minimum-time paths by adjusting aircraft heading according to wind conditions at an arbitrary number of wind measurement points along the flight route. The NOWR algorithm may either be used in a fast-time mode to compute minimum- time routes prior to flight, or may be used in a feedback mode to adjust aircraft heading in real-time. By traveling minimum-time routes instead of direct great-circle (direct) routes, flights across the United States can save an average of about 7 minutes, and as much as one hour of flight time during periods of strong jet-stream winds. The neighboring optimal routes computed via the NOWR technique have been shown to be within 1.5 percent of the absolute minimum-time routes for flights across the continental United States. On a typical 450-MHz Sun Ultra workstation, the NOWR algorithm produces complete minimum-time routes in less than 40 milliseconds. This corresponds to a rate of 25 optimal routes per second. The closest comparable optimization technique runs approximately 10 times slower. Airlines currently use various trial-and-error search techniques to determine which of a set of commonly traveled routes will minimize flight time. These algorithms are too computationally expensive for use in real-time systems, or in systems where many optimal routes need to be computed in a short amount of time. Instead of operating in real-time, airlines will typically plan a trajectory several hours in advance using wind forecasts. If winds change significantly from forecasts, the resulting flights will no longer be minimum-time. The need for a computationally efficient wind-optimal routing algorithm is even greater in the case of new air-traffic-control automation concepts. For air-traffic-control automation, thousands of wind-optimal routes may need to be computed and checked for conflicts in just a few minutes. These factors motivated the need for a more efficient wind-optimal routing algorithm.

Jardin, Matthew R.↗

NASA NTRS1978

The 20/30 GHz satellite systems technology needs assessment

Rain attenuation in the 20/30 GHz bands, and the resultant impact on system user costs were estimated for a variety of satellite communication system concepts. Results of previous and current NASA Lewis contractual and in-house studies on system design are reported as well as market studies conducted to evaluate the concepts and test their relevancy against forecasted market needs. The 20/30 GHz bands appear attractive economically and, with certain technology, appear to offer a virtually unlimited spectrum resource. This attractiveness is especially relevant to high density trunking where there is sufficient traffic to justify dual-station site diversity.

Stevens, G.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Future Air Traffic Growth and Schedule Model User's Guide

The Future Air Traffic Growth and Schedule Model was developed as an implementation of the Fratar algorithm to project future traffic flow between airports in a system and of then scheduling the additional flights to reflect current passenger time-of-travel preferences. The methodology produces an unconstrained future schedule from a current (or baseline) schedule and the airport operations growth rates. As an example of the use of the model, future schedules are projected for 2010 and 2022 for all flights arriving at, departing from, or flying between all continental United States airports that had commercial scheduled service for May 17, 2002. Inter-continental US traffic and airports are included and the traffic is also grown with the Fratar methodology to account for their arrivals and departures to the continental US airports. Input data sets derived from the Official Airline Guide (OAG) data and FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) are included in the examples of the computer code execution.

Kimmel, William M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Future Air Traffic Growth and Schedule Model, Supplement

Kimmel, William M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Integrated Analysis of Airport Capacity and Environmental Constraints

LMI conducted an integrated analysis of airport capacity and environmental constraints. identifying and ranking the key factors limiting achievement of NextGen capacity goals. The primary metric used was projected throughput, which was estimated for the years 2015 and 2025 based on the unconstrained demand forecast from the Federal Aviation Administration, and planned improvements including those proposed in the NextGen plan. A set of 310 critical airports was identified.. collectively accounting for more than 99 percent of domestic air traffic volume; a one-off analytical approach was used to isolate the constraint being assessed. The study considered three capacity constraints (runway.. taxiway, and gate) and three environmental constraints (fuel, NO(x) emissions, and noise). For the ten busiest airports, runway and noise are the primary and secondary constraints in both 2015 and 2025. For the OEP 35 airports and overall for the remaining airports, the most binding constraint is noise. Six of the 10 busiest airports, will face runway constraints in 2025, and 95 will face gate constraints. Nearly every airport will be subject to constraints due to emissions and NOx. Runway and taxi constraints are more concentrated in the large airports: environmental constraints are present at almost every airport regardless of size.

Hasan, Shahab↗

NASA NTRS2018

Required Time of Arrival as a Control Mechanism to Mitigate Uncertainty in Arrival Traffic Demand Management

The objective of this study is to explore the use of Required Time of Arrival (RTA) capability on the flight deck as a control mechanism on arrival traffic management to improve traffic delivery accuracy by mitigating the effect of traffic demand uncertainty. The uncertainties are caused by various factors, such as departure error due to the difference between scheduled departure and the actual take-off time. A simulation study was conducted using the Multi Aircraft Control System (MACS) software, a comprehensive research platform developed in the Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) at NASA Ames Research Center. The Crossing Time (CT) performance (i.e. the difference between target crossing time and actual crossing time) of the RTA for uncertainty mitigation during cruise phase was evaluated under the influence of varying two main factors: wind severity (heavy wind vs. mild wind), and wind error (1 hour, 2 hours, and 5 hours wind forecast errors). To examine the CT performance improvement made by the RTA, the comparison to the CT of the aircraft that were not assigned with RTA (Non-RTA) under the influence of the selected factors was also made. The Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) was chosen for this study. A total 66 inbound traffic to the EWR (34 of them were airborne when the simulation was initiated, 32 were pre-departures at that time) was simulated, where the pre-scripted departure error was assigned to each pre-departure (61 conform to their Expected Departure Clearance Time, which is +-300 seconds of their scheduled departure time). The results of the study show that the delivery accuracy improvement can be achieved by assigning RTA, regardless of the influence of the selected two factors (the wind severity and the wind information inaccuracy). Across all wind variances, 66.9 (265 out of 396) of the CT performance of the RTA assigned aircraft was within +- 60 seconds (i.e. target tolerance range) and 88.9 (352 out of 396) aircraft met +-300 seconds marginal tolerance range, while only 33.6 (133 out of 396) of the Non-RTA assigned aircrafts CT performance achieved the target tolerance range and 75.5 (299 out of 396) stayed within the marginal. Examination of the impact of different error sources i.e. departure error, wind severity, and wind error suggest that although large departure errors can significantly impact the CT performance, the impacts of wind severity and errors were modest relative the targeted +- 60 second conformance range.

required time of arrival (RTA)↗

NASA NTRS2016

Application of Aviation Turbulence Information to Air-Traffic Management (ATM): Chapter - 24

Unexpected turbulence especially in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere where cabin crews and passengers in cruising aircraft are likely to unbuckle causes in-flight injuries, structural damage, and flight delay. Therefore, turbulence information can be used to improve safety while pursuing efficiency in Air-Traffic Management (ATM). In this chapter, simple modeling of aircraft trajectories combined with wind and turbulence predictions can suggest the optimal solution of flight plans that minimizes both total flight time (e.g., fuel consumption) and potential encounters of turbulence from departure to arrival airports. Also, probabilistic ensemble turbulence forecasts are applied to suggest an optimal strategic and tactical ATM route planning in a given weather and turbulence condition in the United States which are evaluated against in situ Eddy Dissipation Rate observations from commercial aircraft. Finally, variations of long-haul trans-Oceanic flight routes and their turbulence potentials are investigated using a global reanalysis data to understand how the upper-level large-scale flow patterns can affect the long-term ATM planning through the changes of winds and turbulence conditions.

Wind Optimal↗

NASA NTRS2019

Prognostics As-A-Service: A Scalable Cloud Architecture for Prognostics

Comprehensive aircraft system health-state awareness is critical for maintaining safe, efficient growth in global operations, enabling higher levels of autonomy, and facilitating new forms of aviation. Maintainers, vehicle operators, air traffic controllers, dispatchers, pilots, autonomous systems, and other decision-makers must have reliable real-time knowledge of the vehicle health, the health of its critical composite systems, predictions of how health changes with time, and forecasts of how its capabilities change with health degradation to preserve safety and efficiency. Providing this information in a reliable manner in computationally constrained environments and across a wide range of vehicles and systems continues to be a challenge. This challenge can be partially resolved through cloud computing, where the execution of prognostic and diagnostic algorithms is performed on a network of remote servers hosted on the internet. NASA is developing a cloud computing service, Prognostics As-A-Service (PaaS), that explores the feasibility and challenges of cloud-enhanced prognostics. Though such a system has broad applicability, this research effort is focused on aviation applications.

Prognostics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Propagation in Pre-Flight Prediction of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Separation Violation

Current forecasts on the future of aeronautics suggest an in- creasing number of unmanned aerial vehicles entering the low- altitude airspace in the next decades (FAA, 2018; Kopardekar et al., 2016). Small vehicles for package delivery as well as larger vehicles for urban air mobility will change the airspace drastically, increasing density of operations both in time, i.e. high number of take-off and landings per unit time, and in space, operating in dense urban environment. This scenario poses challenges to the current approach to air traffic control, and large efforts from academia, industry and regulatory bodies are dedicated to the development of new traffic management strategies that leverage higher computing and simulating capabilities available today. In this paper, we propose a simple look-ahead approach to predict potential minimum separation violations at the strategic level, that is before vehicles start flying, depending on the predefined 4D trajectories and uncertainty affecting the wind acting along those routes. The wind field is extracted from the NOAA North America Mesoscale Forecast System and interpolated using Gaussian process regression, while uncertainty affecting the expected cruise airspeed is propagated through error intervals. The approach allows the prediction of aircraft separation as a function of time, highlighting potential safety violations that would go undetected if uncertainty affecting the expected 4D trajectories is not considered. The paper will also discuss issues related to accuracy and scalability of the approach to multiple vehicle operations.

Trajectory Prediction↗