A probability distribution for the number of thunderstorm events at Cape Kennedy, Florida
Negative binomial distribution for number of thunderstorms at Cape Kennedy, Florida
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Negative binomial distribution for number of thunderstorms at Cape Kennedy, Florida
Negative binomial distribution as new probability model for representing thunderstorm hit variation per day at Cape Kennedy
Peak wind statistics associated with thunderstorms at Cape Kennedy, Florida
Thunderstorm turbulence relationship to weather radar echoes from storm penetrations in Oklahoma by instrumented aircraft
Probability distributions for thunderstorms at Cape Kennedy
Dynamical analysis of outflow from tornado producing thunderstorms as revealed by ATS 3 pictures
Frequency and duration of thunderstorms at Cape Kennedy
Thunderstorm cold air outflow leading edge structure recorded by NASA meteorological tower at Kennedy Space Center
Vertical wind distribution associated with thunderstorm outflow, measuring wind direction oscillations at Kennedy Space Center
Tornado producing thunderstorms using conventional surface and upper air data combined with ATS-III data, discussing mesoscale disturbances and momentum exchange
Thunderstorms lightning flashes time distribution recorded visually and on radar screens, discussing statistical variations in sigma
Thunderstorm bottom wind profile model, analyzing flow distribution, isotach, isogon and isotherm characteristics
Binomial distribution models for thunderstorm activity at Cape Kennedy
Tornado producing thunderstorms upper level outflow synoptic and dynamic processes from ATS 3 pictures, discussing convective warming effects
One of the major problems concerning meteorologists at the Kennedy Space Center, Fla, involves the forecasting of thunderstorm activity and associated adverse weather phenomena. The purpose of the study is to outline some of the more successful diagnostic tools which have been developed to aid the forecaster. These involve a variety of statistical procedures including conditional probabilities, exposure-period probabilities, and systems of multiple-regression equations based on nonlinear predictors.
Infrared radiometric inference measurements of the mass of water vapor injected into the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere by a number of plains thunderstorms show an average threefold increase over the fair weather background mass of water vapor. These airborne measurements, made from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Convair 990 jet laboratory, extended over a sample size much larger than that possible by balloon and other techniques.
Peak value and risetime distributions for the electric radiation fields produced by lightning strokes to ground in three isolated Florida thunderstorms are presented. The storm at 195 km produced about 1000 return strokes having an average peak radiation field (normalized to 100 km) of about 5.5 V/m, the storm at 110 km produced about 700 strokes having 2.0 V/m, and the storm within 10 km produced about 100 strokes having 15.0 V/m. For each storm the average peak radiation field for first strokes was only slightly greater than the average peak field for subsequent strokes. For the sample of three storms the average peak radiation field in a given storm was proportional to the number of subsequent strokes per flash in that storm. The field risetimes for the two distant storms have statistical properties which are essentially identical to those reported for distant storms in Pennsylvania, whereas the close Florida storm exhibited significantly faster risetimes.
A Bayesian analysis of the two discrete probability models, the negative binomial and the modified negative binomial distributions, which have been used to describe thunderstorm activity at Cape Kennedy, Florida, is presented. The Bayesian approach with beta prior distributions is compared to the classical approach which uses a moment method of estimation or a maximum-likelihood method. The accuracy and simplicity of the Bayesian method is demonstrated.