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At least 163 records · Page 9

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NASA NTRS2026

South Asian Monsoon Response to Regional Aerosol Emission Reductions: Insights From RAMIP

Anthropogenic aerosol and associated precursor gas emissions are already declining in many regions and are likely to decline significantly by 2050, with major implications for regional climate. Unlike greenhouse gases, aerosol impacts are spatially heterogeneous and can influence climate both near emission sources and through remote teleconnections. This is particularly important for the South Asian monsoon system, where both local and remote aerosol changes can significantly affect precipitation patterns. Using simulations from the Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project, we examine how local and remote aerosol emission reductions influence South Asian climate across both pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, including weakening of the elevated heat pump (EHP) mechanism during pre-monsoon months. Our analysis employs 10-member ensembles from 10 CMIP6-era models to compare three experiments with global, South Asian, and East Asian aerosol reductions relative to a high-emission baseline (SSP3-7.0). This experimental design allows us to isolate and quantify the distinct impacts of regional emission changes. Results reveal that global aerosol reductions produce a larger all-India precipitation increase (+0.28 mm day −1 ) than South Asian reductions alone (+0.19 mm day −1 ), with the strongest regional responses over the northern Bay of Bengal, the Western Ghats and Indo-Gangetic Plains. East Asian reductions show uncertain but modest precipitation reductions of 0.2-0.6 mm day −1 over parts of west-central and eastern Indian regions. Pre-monsoon carbonaceous aerosol reductions systematically weaken the EHP, cooling the mid-troposphere over the Himalayan foothills by up to 0.4 K and producing localised anomalous descent that opposes the climatological pre-monsoon ascent. Substantial inter-model diversity exists in the spatial patterns and magnitudes of these responses, highlighting key uncertainties in aerosol–monsoon interactions. The South Asian precipitation response is driven by enhanced land–sea thermal contrast, while the pre-monsoon EHP weakening is attributable exclusively to local South Asian carbonaceous aerosol forcing rather than remote teleconnections. These findings have direct implications for air quality and climate adaptation planning across South Asia as regional aerosol emissions diverge under different development pathways.

cmip6↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the large-scale drivers of precipitation in the northeastern United States via linear orthogonal decomposition

This study examines the linear orthogonal modes associated with monthly precipitation in the northeastern United States, from CESM1 LENS (35 ensemble members, 1979–2005) and two reanalysis datasets (ERA5, 1950–2018 and NOAA-CIRES-DOE 20CRv3, 1950–2015). Calendar months are aggregated together, and any linear trends in data are removed. Using region-averaged precipitation anomaly time series and monthly anomalies for several global 2D atmospheric fields, a linear orthogonal decomposition method is implemented to iteratively extract time series (based on field and geographic location) of absolute maximum correlation. Linear modes associated with this method are then projected onto the full set of 2D fields to provide physical insight into the mechanisms involved in generating precipitation. In this region, the first mode is associated with vapor transport from the Atlantic seaboard, the second mode is characterized by westward vapor transport associated with extratropical cyclones, and the third mode captures vapor transport from the Gulf of Mexico during the fall and winter. However, the third mode is less robust in the spring and summer. Results are generally consistent across the datasets, and applying multiple linear regression with the linear modes to predict the precipitation anomalies produces R-squared values of around 0.54–0.65 for CESM1 LENS, and around 0.58–0.88 for reanalysis, with the lowest values generally in the spring and late summer. The influence of low-frequency climate variability on the modes is considered for CESM1 LENS, and the modes in late winter can be predicted with some success via a combination of several, prominent large-scale teleconnection patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the influence of ENSO complexity on Pan-Pacific coastal wave extremes

Significance This study demonstrates how the main wave regimes in the Pacific, in particular related to tropical and extratropical storm activity, are activated by different El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections patterns. By combining these robust relationships with the latest theoretical advances in ENSO research, a mathematical model of wave energy modulation is derived. It allows a better representation of wave extremes over a range of time scales wider than previously possible with the previous baseline understanding of ENSO’s influence on coastal impacts. This paves the way for unprecedented seasonal to monthly forecasts of coastal hazards around the densely populated Pacific basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Warming Pattern over the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes in Boreal Summer 1979–2020

Abstract Significant surface air temperature warming during summer 1979–2020 is not uniformly distributed in the northern midlatitudes over land but rather is confined to several longitudinal sectors including Europe, central Siberia and Mongolia, and both coasts of North America. These hot spots are accompanied by a chain of high pressure ridges from an anomalous, circumglobal Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere. From reanalysis data and several baseline experiments from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that the circulation trend pattern is associated with fluctuations of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. The phase shift of AMV in the 1990s is particularly noteworthy for accelerating warming averaged over the northern midlatitude land. The amplitude of the observed trend in both surface air temperature and the upper-level geopotential height generally falls beyond the range of multidecadal trends simulated by the CMIP6 preindustrial control runs, supporting the likelihood that anthropogenic forcing played a critical role in the observed trend. On the other hand, the fidelity of the simulated low-frequency modes of variability and their teleconnections, especially on multidecadal time scales, is difficult to assess because of the relatively short observational records. Our mechanistic modeling results indicate that synoptic eddy–mean flow interaction is a key to the formation of the anomalous wave train but how the multidecadal modes can modulate the synoptic eddies through atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions remains poorly understood. This gap in our knowledge makes it challenging to quantify the roles of the low-frequency modes and external forcings in causing the observed multidecadal trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nonlocal, Pattern-Aware Response and Feedback Framework for Regional Climate Response

We devise a pattern-aware feedback framework for representing the forced climate response using a suite of Green’s function experiments with solar radiation perturbations. By considering the column energy balance, a comprehensive linear response function (CLRF) for important climate variables and feedback quantities such as moist static energy, sea surface temperature, albedo, cloud optical depth, and lapse rate is learned from Green’s function data. The learned CLRF delineates the effects of the energy diffusion in both the ocean and atmosphere and the pattern-aware feedbacks from the aforementioned radiatively active processes. The CLRF can then be decomposed into forcing–response mode pairs, which are in turn used to construct a reduced-order model describing the dominant dynamics of climate responses. These mode pairs capture nonlocal effects and teleconnections in the climate and thus make the reduced-order model apt for capturing regional features of climate response. A key observation is that the CLRF captures the polar-amplified response as the most excitable mode of the climate system, and this mode is explainable in the data-learned pattern-aware feedback framework. The reduced-order model can be used for predicting the response for a given forcing and for reconstructing the forcing from a given response; we demonstrate these capabilities for multiple independent forcing scenarios.

Feedback↗

DOE OSTI2026

Water4Energy Step-1 Band-M Ready-to-Train Samples for TVA Weeks-to-Years Prediction, Version 0

AI-ready Band-M (monthly) labelled training pack for the Water4Energy Genesis Task-1 project on weeks-to-years prediction of Tennessee Valley temperature and precipitation. The deposit includes leakage-aware issue-time samples (samples_M_v0.nc; N=486), train-only scalers, issue-time split table, supporting monthly panels, and Python generation scripts to recreate the pack from the companion Tier-1 raw observation collection (https://doi.org/10.13139/ORNLNCCS/3398576). Each sample pairs a 12-month lookback of teleconnection indices and SST box anomalies with TVA-mean ERA5 anomaly targets (t2m, tp, msl) at leads 1–3 months.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

AI for Extreme Volcanic Climate Forcing and Feedback Forecasting in the 21st century

Our paradigm-shifting framework will apply machine learning and perform physical analysis of contemporary volcanoes to develop sound forecasts of extreme eruptions in the 21stcentury and their abrupt drying and cooling impacts on the warming climate. We will also bridge climate data driven regression models and earth system model output to trace teleconnections that exacerbate regional impacts such as Arctic amplification and western US droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

Global Disease Outbreaks Associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño Event

Interannual climate variability patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon result in climate and environmental anomaly conditions in specific regions worldwide that directly favor outbreaks and/or amplification of variety of diseases of public health concern including chikungunya, hantavirus, Rift Valley fever, cholera, plague, and Zika. We analyzed patterns of some disease outbreaks during the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event in relation to climate anomalies derived from satellite measurements. Disease outbreaks in multiple El Niño-connected regions worldwide (including Southeast Asia, Tanzania, western US, and Brazil) followed shifts in rainfall, temperature, and vegetation in which both drought and flooding occurred in excess (14–81% precipitation departures from normal). These shifts favored ecological conditions appropriate for pathogens and their vectors to emerge and propagate clusters of diseases activity in these regions. Our analysis indicates that intensity of disease activity in some ENSO-teleconnected regions were approximately 2.5–28% higher during years with El Niño events than those without. Plague in Colorado and New Mexico as well as cholera in Tanzania were significantly associated with above normal rainfall (p < 0.05); while dengue in Brazil and southeast Asia were significantly associated with above normal land surface temperature (p < 0.05). Routine and ongoing global satellite monitoring of key climate variable anomalies calibrated to specific regions could identify regions at risk for emergence and propagation of disease vectors. Such information can provide sufficient lead-time for outbreak prevention and potentially reduce the burden and spread of ecologically coupled diseases.

El Nino↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Response of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to Increased CO and its Modulation by Composition Feedbacks

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) impacts the large-scale circulation by altering lower stratospheric meridional temperature gradients which alter the propagation of upward propagating planetary waves. Proposed teleconnections of the QBO include impacts on the stratospheric polar vortices, extratropical surface winter climate, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, long-term projections of the QBO remain highly uncertain. While recent multi-model investigations (Richter et al. 2019, Butchart et al. 2020) show that the amplitude of the QBO weakens robustly among models, changes in QBO period and stability remain highly uncertain. Here we examine the QBO response to increased greenhouse gases using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Middle Atmosphere Model E2.2 (Rind et al., 2020; Orbe et al. 2020). Compared to lower vertical resolution versions of ModelE, E2.2 also has a higher model top (0.002 hPa) and employs additional interactive non-orographic gravity wave drag sources from convection and shear, which produce a sufficiently realistic QBO, thus rendering it suitable for use in climate change studies. Overall, we find that both the QBO period and amplitude decrease in response to increased CO , the former related to increased lower stratospheric momentum fluxes (associated with convection) and the latter associated partly with a stronger residual mean circulation. Experiments integrated using fully interactive chemistry also reveal that ozone feedbacks significantly impact the magnitude of the QBO amplitude response. Finally, integrations using fixed (pre-industrial) sea surface temperatures (SST) show that the QBO amplitude responds differently to rapid adjustments versus SST feedbacks, as compared to the QBO period.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation↗

DOE OSTI2023

A new climatology of South American extratropical cyclogenesis with an intercomparison among ERA5 , JRA55 and the Brazilian Navy

Abstract In South America, the most destructive extratropical cyclones occur over the southeastern quadrant of the continent, a region that includes some of the world's largest population centres. However, there are few studies of cyclogenesis in this region, and little is known about how the varying origins of these storms impact subsequent behaviour. By supplementing an observational record with current reanalysis data, this study reveals the general characteristics of cyclones that develop in the lee regions of the Andes and those that develop nearer the Atlantic coast. The comparative climatologies demonstrate that cyclone development in these separate contexts is driven by topography, local atmospheric circulations and basin‐scale climate oscillations. The analysis further reveals a low‐frequency seesaw of lee and coastal cyclogenesis, with cross‐basin ocean temperature differences playing a teleconnectional role.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Climatology of diablo winds in Northern California and their relationships with large-scale climate variabilities

The most destructive wildfires recently in Northern California have been linked to the occurrences of Diablo Winds (DWs). This study investigates the climatology of DWs during September–December 1979–2018, and their relationships with various climate modes using observations and two high-resolution reanalysis datasets. Our finding shows that DWs do not have a long-term trend in terms of the annual total number, total duration, and associated maximum wind speeds of DWs over the past 4 decades. However, their associated minimum relative humidity (RH) has decreased significantly, especially in October, which suggests that the dryness during DWs has become more severe with time, possibly leading to an increased chance of fires, and their destructive potential. We also find that the annual total number and duration of DWs have exhibited an quasi-periodic variation, with intervals ranging from 2 to 4 years. The periodic variability of DWs might be attributed to the teleconnections between DWs and climate oscillations, specifically the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), through their modulation of pressure systems near California and the location of the Pacific jet stream. It is suggested that when La Niña and the QBO westerly phases co-occur in the spring, DWs in the following fall and winter tend to occur more frequently, and are associated with more intense high winds and dryness as compared to other springtime QBO and ENSO phases. This relationship may be used to predict the seasonal outlook of DWs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia

Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5’s ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. Moreover, the predictability of SAT during La Niña is comparable to El Niño years over the WSA region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2)

An overview of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) is provided, including a discussion of the challenges encountered during its development and how they were addressed. In addition, an evaluation of a pair of CESM2 long pre-industrial control and historical ensemble simulations is presented. These simulations were performed using the nominal 1° horizontal resolution configuration of the coupled model with both the “low-top” (40 km, with limited chemistry) and “high-top” (140 km, with comprehensive chemistry) versions of the atmospheric component. CESM2 contains many substantial science and infrastructure improvements and new capabilities since its previous major release, CESM1, resulting in improved historical simulations in comparison to CESM1 and available observations. These include major reductions in low latitude precipitation and short-wave cloud forcing biases; better representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation; better El Niño – Southern Oscillation-related teleconnections; and a global land carbon accumulation trend that agrees well with observationally-based estimates. Most tropospheric and surface features of the low- and high-top simulations are very similar to each other, so these improvements are present in both configurations. CESM2 has an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 5.1-5.3°C, larger than in CESM1, primarily due to a combination of relatively small changes to cloud microphysics and boundary layer parameters. In contrast, CESM2’s transient climate response of 1.9-2.0°C is comparable to that of CESM1. The model outputs from these and many other simulations are available to the research community, and theyrepresent CESM2’s contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Danabasoglu, Gokhan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Winter precipitation changes in California under global warming: Contributions of CO2, uniform SST warming, and SST change patterns

Climate models project a wetting winter over California, distinct from the drying in all other Mediterranean climate regions under warming. Dynamic effect via an eastward extension of the westerly jet stream over the North Pacific is the root cause for the wetting California. Utilizing four sets of prescribed-SST (sea surface temperature) simulations, the relative effects of direct CO2 radiative forcing, uniform SST warming, and SST change pattern are investigated. The wetting winter is dominated by uniform SST warming mainly through its effect on the jet extension. As a fundamental response to the enhanced upper-tropospheric warming in the tropics, the jet extension in coupled simulations is well reproduced under uniform SST warming and robust among models. An El Niño-like SST warming pattern has a secondary contribution to the jet extension via atmospheric teleconnection, but with large inter-model spread. Relative to the SST forcing, the direct CO2 radiative effect is negligible.

Dong, Lu↗

DOE OSTI2021

Revisiting ENSO and IOD Contributions to Australian Precipitation

Tropical modes of variability, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), exert a strong influence on the interannual variability of Australian precipitation. Nevertheless, commonly used indices of ENSO and IOD variability display significant co-variability that prevents a robust quantification of the independent contribution of each mode to precipitation anomalies. This co-variability issue is often addressed by statistically removing ENSO or IOD variability from the precipitation field before calculating teleconnection patterns. However, by performing a suite of coupled and uncoupled modeling experiments in which either ENSO or IOD variability is physically removed, we show that ENSO-only-driven precipitation patterns computed by statistically removing the IOD influence significantly underestimate the impact of ENSO on Australian precipitation variability. Here, inspired by this, we propose a conceptual model that allows one to effectively separate the contribution of each mode to Australian precipitation variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Robust evaluation of ENSO in climate models: How many ensemble members are needed?

Large ensembles of model simulations require considerable resources, and thus defining an appropriate ensemble size for a particular application is an important experimental design criterion. We estimate the ensemble size (N) needed to assess a model's ability to capture observed El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) behavior by utilizing the recently developed International CLIVAR ENSO Metrics Package (Planton et al., 2021). Using the larger ensembles available from CMIP6 and the US CLIVAR Large Ensemble Working Group, we find that larger ensembles are needed to robustly capture baseline ENSO characteristics (N > 50) and physical processes (N > 50) than the background climatology (N ≥ 12) and remote ENSO teleconnections (N ≥ 6). While these results vary somewhat across metrics and models, our study quantifies how larger ensembles are required to robustly evaluate simulated ENSO behavior, thereby providing some guidance for the design of model ensembles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Phase-Locking of Tropical North Atlantic and the Contribution of ENSO

The Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) is characterized by significant interannual variability in sea surface temperature (SST), which is phase-locked to the boreal spring. In this study, the phase-locking of TNA is investigated by adopting a linear stochastic-dynamical model (SDM) using seasonally modulated TNA feedbacks together with the seasonal modulation of ENSO forcing. In the observations, the role of local TNA feedbacks and ENSO forcing in TNA phase-locking are equivalently important with both preferring the peak of TNA variability to appear in the boreal spring. Besides, the seasonal modulation of TNA feedbacks and ENSO forcing strength are both mainly controlled by thermodynamic processes. In most climate models, the contribution of ENSO on TNA phase-locking is weaker than that in observations. The strength of ENSO-related TNA phase-locking is highly correlated with the relationship between ENSO and TNA, which is mainly determined by the amplitude of ENSO and its teleconnection patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Decadal Variability of Southeast US Rainfall in an Eddying Global Coupled Model

Abstract Ocean variability is a dominant source of remote rainfall predictability, but in many cases the physical mechanisms driving this predictability are not fully understood. This study examines how ocean mesoscales (i.e., the Gulf Stream SST front) affect decadal Southeast US (SEUS) rainfall, arguing that the local imprint of large‐scale teleconnections is sensitive to resolved mesoscale features. Based on global coupled model experiments with eddying and eddy‐parameterizing ocean, we find that a resolved Gulf Stream improves localized rainfall and remote circulation response in the SEUS. The eddying model generally improves the air‐sea interactions in the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Subtropical High that modulate SEUS rainfall over decadal timescales. The eddy‐parameterizing simulation fails to capture the sharp SST gradient associated with the Gulf Stream and overestimates the role of tropical Pacific SST anomalies in the SEUS rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗