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At least 163 records · Page 9

Sulfur Pellets Responses to a Bare and Steel Reflected Pulse of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Health Physics Research Reactor

The experiments analyzed in this report were conducted at the Health Physics Research Reactor (HPRR), also known as the $\textit{Fast Burst Reactor}$. The reactor was designed and built at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in 1961. The HPRR was an unmoderated, unshielded fast reactor that used highly enriched uranium and molybdenum alloy as fuel. The reactor was initially sent to the Nevada Test Site in 1962, where it was used to evaluate radiation doses received as a result of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings during World War II. A few years later, the reactor was sent back to ORNL to be part of the Dosimetry Application Research (DOSAR) facility shown in Figure 1, which included a reactor building shown on the left (west) of the picture and a control and laboratory building in the upper right corner (northeast). The critical assembly was used for numerous technical studies, including systems calibration, dosimetry, radiobiology of plants and animals, testing of radiation alarms, as well as teaching and training in radiation dosimetry and nuclear engineering. Between 1963 and 1987, the HPRR was operated for thousands of hours, achieving criticality close to 10,000 times and motivating many publications. The HPRR was decommissioned in 1987. The goal of this effort was to use historical data from operation of the HPRR to create a criticality accident alarm system (CAAS) benchmark to be included in the $\textit{International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments}$ (ICSBEP Handbook). A thorough inspection was performed of all available documentation and information available. The most promising experiments that were selected for evaluation were those described in the 1987 ORNL report entitled $\textit{Health Physics Research Reactor Reference Dosimetry}$, ORNL-6240. The report includes reference dosimetry results of the shielded and unshielded configurations of the HPRR after burst operations. Because of changes to the reactor positioning and storage systems that were made in 1985, the previous dosimetry reports became obsolete, and the newly designed experiments were needed to create the HPRR’s adjusted dosimetry data. The various results reported in ORNL-6240 include reference doses and dose equivalents from different conventions at different distances and elevations as determined using the detected neutron fluence and conversion factors. The HPRR neutron fluence was obtained through different methods, including sulfur pellet analysis and threshold detector unit data. Information about the HPRR spectrum was also obtained through Bonner sphere measurements. This benchmark is focused on a part of the measured sulfur fluences reported in Appendix H of ORNL-6240. Standard commercial sulfur pellets were placed at different distances from the HPRR centerline during burst operation and were activated due to the 32 S(n,p) 32 P reaction. The resulting 32 P activity was then measured and the information about the corresponding sulfur fluence and/or neutron dose could be extracted. Many of those measurements have 7 been performed with the HPRR in its bare configuration or with different shields (combinations of Lucite, concrete, steel). All the necessary, precise information about material and/or dimensions of the different shields was not found, so it was decided to focus only on the unshielded and steel-shielded configurations to minimize the benchmark uncertainty. A total of 31 cases (24 unshielded and 7 shielded cases at different positions) of sulfur fluence were selected before evaluation to develop the benchmark.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

New roads and challenges for fuel cells in heavy-duty transportation

The recent release of hydrogen economy roadmaps for several major countries emphasizes the need for accelerated worldwide investment in research and development activities for hydrogen production, storage, infrastructure and utilization in transportation, industry and the electrical grid. Due to the high gravimetric energy density of hydrogen, the focus of technologies that utilize this fuel has recently shifted from light-duty automotive to heavy-duty vehicle applications. Decades of development of cost-effective and durable polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells must now be leveraged to meet the increased efficiency and durability requirements of the heavy-duty vehicle market. This Review summarizes the latest market outlooks and targets for truck, bus, locomotive and marine applications. Required changes to the fuel-cell system and operating conditions for meeting Class 8 long-haul truck targets are presented. The necessary improvements in fuel-cell materials and integration are also discussed against the benchmark of current passenger fuel-cell electric vehicles.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Advancing energy storage through solubility prediction: leveraging the potential of deep learning

Solubility prediction plays a crucial role in energy storage applications, such as redox flow batteries, because it directly affects the efficiency and reliability. Researchers have developed various methods that utilize quantum calculations and descriptors to predict the aqueous solubilities of organic molecules. Notably, machine learning models based on descriptors have shown promise for solubility prediction. As deep learning tools, graph neural networks (GNNs) have emerged to capture complex structure–property relationships for material property prediction. Specifically, MolGAT, a type of GNN model, was designed to incorporate n-dimensional edge attributes, enabling the modeling of intricacies in molecular graphs and enhancing the prediction capabilities. In a previous study, MolGAT successfully screened 23 467 promising redox-active molecules from a database of over 500 000 compounds, based on redox potential predictions. This study focused on applying the MolGAT model to predict the aqueous solubility (log S) of a broad range of organic compounds, including those previously screened for redox activity. The model was trained on a diverse sample of 8494 organic molecules from AqSolDB and benchmarked against literature data, demonstrating superior accuracy compared with other state of the art graph-based and descriptor-based models. Subsequently, the trained MolGAT model was employed to screen redox-active organic compounds identified in the first phase of high-throughput virtual screening, targeting favorable solubility in energy storage applications. The second round of screening, which considered solubility, yielded 12 332 promising redox-active and soluble organic molecules suitable for use in aqueous redox flow batteries. Thus, the two-phase high-throughput virtual screening approach utilizing MolGAT, specifically trained for redox potential and solubility, is an effective strategy for selecting suitable intrinsically soluble redox-active molecules from extensive databases, potentially advancing energy storage through reliable material development. This indicates that the model is reliable for predicting the solubility of various molecules and provides valuable insights for energy storage, pharmaceutical, environmental, and chemical applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Switching speed limits in electrically driven VO 2 structural Mott–Peierls transition

Mott materials are archetypal quantum systems actively explored as next-generation electronic and photonic platforms, with potential applications spanning non-Von Neumann computing, robotics, energy storage, and microwave technologies. Among these, vanadium dioxide (VO 2 ) has emerged as one of the most intensively studied compounds, owing to its sharp, near-room-temperature insulator-to-metal phase transition. VO 2 also serves as a benchmark system for testing cutting-edge theories and experimental techniques. Here, we directly visualize the electrically driven transition dynamics in VO 2 using a microwave-driven, frequency-tunable pulsed transmission electron microscope that combines nanometer spatial and picosecond temporal resolution. Under high-frequency (MHz–GHz) excitation, we capture the ultrafast nucleation, propagation, and dissolution of metallic domains within an operating device over millions of reversible cycles. We observe the ultrafast formation of consistent metallic nuclei beneath the electrodes, followed by the propagation of a structural phase front at 4.54 nm/ns. Our experiments show that phonon-mediated structural recovery ultimately limits reversible switching of VO 2 at GHz frequencies, and that a tunable regime for reversible operation spans from kHz to GHz through device engineering. Beyond VO 2 , our approach provides a powerful framework for probing non-equilibrium structural transformations in correlated and functional materials under realistic electrical stimuli.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Timely Reporting of Heavy Hitters Using External Memory

Given an input stream S of size N, a Φ-heavy hitter is an item that occurs at least ΦN times in S. The problem of finding heavy-hitters is extensively studied in the database literature. In this work, we study a real-time heavy-hitters variant in which an element must be reported shortly after we see its T = Φ N-th occurrence (and hence it becomes a heavy hitter). We call this the Timely Event Detection (TED) Problem. The TED problem models the needs of many real-world monitoring systems, which demand accurate (i.e., no false negatives) and timely reporting of all events from large, high-speed streams with a low reporting threshold (high sensitivity). Like the classic heavy-hitters problem, solving the TED problem without false-positives requires large space (Ω (N) words). Thus in-RAM heavy-hitters algorithms typically sacrifice accuracy (i.e., allow false positives), sensitivity, or timeliness (i.e., use multiple passes). We show how to adapt heavy-hitters algorithms to external memory to solve the TED problem on large high-speed streams while guaranteeing accuracy, sensitivity, and timeliness. Our data structures are limited only by I/O-bandwidth (not latency) and support a tunable tradeoff between reporting delay and I/O overhead. With a small bounded reporting delay, our algorithms incur only a logarithmic I/O overhead. We implement and validate our data structures empirically using the Firehose streaming benchmark. Multi-threaded versions of our structures can scale to process 11M observations per second before becoming CPU bound. In comparison, a naive adaptation of the standard heavy-hitters algorithm to external memory would be limited by the storage device’s random I/O throughput, i.e., ≈100K observations per second.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integrated Energy-Water Data for Cross-Sector Resilience

This white paper focuses on the “energy-for-water” domain, addressing the urgent need for integrated, empirical data to support regional management, benchmarking, and research on improving efficiency and developing technologies for water and wastewater management systems. The costs and energy required for the supply, treatment, and distribution of water and wastewater lack a standard data collection mechanism and centralized database or storage infrastructure, limiting data-driven decision-making across interdependent infrastructure systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Binder-Coated Carbon Cloth Electrodes for All-Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries

Vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs) are a promising solution for integrating intermittent renewable energy sources into the existing power grid. However, enhancing the electrochemical performance of VRFBs is critical for their widespread adoption in grid-scale energy storage. This study investigates the impact of adding a porous binder to a carbon-cloth electrode, with a focus on optimizing thermal activation conditions. The electrochemical performance of the binder-coated electrodes compared to uncoated electrodes is evaluated through electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, polarization curve measurements, and charge-discharge cycling. The surface morphology and structural integrity of the binder-coated electrodes at each activation stage are examined using various material characterization techniques to assess the effects of thermal activation. The results are benchmarked against the experiments using non-coated electrodes to determine the performance improvements offered by the binder coating. Notably, the study reveals that binder-coated electrodes exhibit significantly lower resistance and improved efficiency compared to their uncoated counterparts, with optimal activation conditions enhancing performance metrics crucial for VRFB applications. These findings provide valuable insights for further optimizing electrode design and activation strategies, advancing the development of more efficient VRFB systems for large-scale energy storage.

Caiado, Ashley A.↗

Enabling selective zinc-ion intercalation by a eutectic electrolyte for practical anodeless zinc batteries

Abstract Two major challenges hinder the advance of aqueous zinc metal batteries for sustainable stationary storage: (1) achieving predominant Zn-ion (de)intercalation at the oxide cathode by suppressing adventitious proton co-intercalation and dissolution, and (2) simultaneously overcoming Zn dendrite growth at the anode that triggers parasitic electrolyte reactions. Here, we reveal the competition between Zn 2+ vs proton intercalation chemistry of a typical oxide cathode using ex-situ/ operando techniques, and alleviate side reactions by developing a cost-effective and non-flammable hybrid eutectic electrolyte. A fully hydrated Zn 2+ solvation structure facilitates fast charge transfer at the solid/electrolyte interface, enabling dendrite-free Zn plating/stripping with a remarkably high average coulombic efficiency of 99.8% at commercially relevant areal capacities of 4 mAh cm −2 and function up to 1600 h at 8 mAh cm −2 . By concurrently stabilizing Zn redox at both electrodes, we achieve a new benchmark in Zn-ion battery performance of 4 mAh cm −2 anode-free cells that retain 85% capacity over 100 cycles at 25 °C. Using this eutectic-design electrolyte, Zn | |Iodine full cells are further realized with 86% capacity retention over 2500 cycles. The approach represents a new avenue for long-duration energy storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Cation-Diffusive Carbon Interlayers Stabilize Na Metal and Double the Current in Na-S Redox-Flow Batteries for Grid-Scale Energy Storage

The sodium-sulfur nonaqueous redox-flow batteries (Na-S NARFBs) using earth-abundant elements are highly attractive due to the low material cost and improved energy density for grid-scale energy storage. However, the low current performance, poor Na0/Na+ redox kinetics, and Na dendrite growth pose severe challenges. We introduce cation-diffusive layers (CDLs): thin and Na+ affinitive interlayers at the Na anode that direct Na+ transport and stabilize Na deposition. Benchmarking three archetypal materials—carbon paper (CP), glass microfiber paper (GF), and foam—across Na-Na and Na-Cu, and Na-S cells identifies CP as the optimum. CP reduces symmetric cell overpotential by more than 70%, achieves 98% Na plating-stripping efficiency, and doubles the Na-S cell current density from 0.5 to 1.0 mA cm−2 without sacrificing capacity or efficiency. Ex situ electrochemical and SEM/XPS analysis, combined with molecular dynamics (MD) studies, reveal that electron-rich carbon fibers disperse supporting salt aggregates, enrich near-surface Na+ density, and create ion transport pathways for fast Na0/Na+ exchange while mitigating membrane degradation. Because of the ion-centric mechanism, CDLs can be generalized to other metal-anode designs. Further, this work establishes CDL design rules—cationic affinity and appropriate micro/nanostructure—as a simple, scalable route to high-current, durable metal-anode flow batteries.

Wu, Wenda [ORNL] (ORCID:000900033307687X)↗

Computational Offload with BlueField Smart NICs

The recent introduction of a new generation of "smart NICs" have provided new accelerator platforms that include CPU cores or reconfigurable fabric in addition to traditional networking hardware and packet offloading capabilities. While there are currently several proposals for using these smartNICs for low-latency, in-line packet processing operations, there remains a gap in knowledge as to how they might be used as computational accelerators for traditional high-performance applications. This work aims to look at benchmarks and mini-applications to evaluate possible benefits of using a smartNIC as a compute accelerator for HPC applications. We investigate NVIDIA's current-generation BlueField-2 card, which includes eight Arm CPUs along with a small amount of storage, and we test the networking and data movement performance of these cards compared to a standard Intel server host. We then detail how two different applications, YASK and miniMD can be modified to make more efficient use of the BlueField-2 device with a focus on overlapping computation and communication for operations like neighbor building and halo exchanges. Our results show that while the overall compute performance of these devices is limited, using them with a modified miniMD algorithm allows for potential speedups of 5 to 20% over the host CPU baseline with no loss in simulation accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Influence of the molecular weight and size distribution of PSS on mixed ionic-electronic transport in PEDOT:PSS

The commercially available polyelectrolyte complex poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene):poly(styrene sulfonate) (PEDOT:PSS) is ubiquitous in organic and hybrid electronics. As such, it has often been used as a benchmark material for fundamental studies and the development of new electronic devices. Yet, most studies on PEDOT:PSS have focused on its electronic conductivity in dry environments, with less consideration given to its ion transport, coupled ionic-electronic transport, and charge storage properties in aqueous environments. These properties are essential for applications in bioelectronics (sensors, actuators), charge storage devices, and electrochromic displays. Importantly, past studies on mixed ionic-electronic transport in PEDOT:PSS neglected to consider how the molecular structure of PSS affects mixed ionic-electronic transport. Herein, we therefore investigated the effect of the molecular weight and size distribution of PSS on the electronic properties and morphology of PEDOT:PSS both in dry and aqueous environments, and overall performance in organic electrochemical transistors (OECTs). Using reversible addition–fragmentation chain transfer (RAFT) polymerization with two different chain transfer agents, six PSS samples with monomodal, narrow (D = 1.1) and broad (D = 1.7) size distributions and varying molecular weights were synthesized and used as matrices for PEDOT. We found that using higher molecular weight of PSS (Mn = 145 kg mol –1 ) and broad dispersity led to OECTs with the highest transconductance (up to 16 mS) and [μC*] values (~140 F cm –1 V –1 s –1 ) in PEDOT:PSS, despite having a lower volumetric capacitance (C* = 35 ± 4 F cm –3 ). The differences were best explained by studying the microstructure of the films by atomic force microscopy (AFM). We found that heterogeneities in the PEDOT:PSS films (interconnected and large PEDOT- and PSS-rich domains) obtained from high molecular weight and high dispersity PSS led to higher charge mobility (μOECT ~4 cm 2 V –1 s –1 ) and hence transconductance. Furthermore, these studies highlight the importance of considering molecular weight and size distribution in organic mixed ionic-electronic conductor, and could pave the way to designing high performance organic electronics for biological interfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Performance Analysis of Data Processing in Distributed File Systems with Near Data Processing

In the era of big data, the escalating volume and velocity of data generation pose significant challenges in data processing. Traditional systems like Spark and Hadoop manage the increasing amount and velocity of data by improving data placement and processing speeds. However, they face inherent limitations due to the essential data movement required for processing. In this paper, we explore the Skyhook framework, a novel extension of the Ceph distributed system, which significantly reduces the need for data movement. We present an extensive case study using the Skyhook framework, applying it with the TPC-H and K-means clustering algorithms. More specifically, we leverage the TPC-H benchmark to distinguish between CPU-intensive and I/O-intensive tasks. We explore the integration of K-means clustering into SQL, coupled with a near-data processing system to offload the computational burden of the K-means clustering algorithm to storage nodes. We conduct a comprehensive performance evaluation of distributed data processing applications across three processing approaches: traditional layout (baseline), optimized layout, and near-data processing. Additionally, we introduce the use of the FIO tool to simulate real-world system workloads, enabling the measurement of performance metrics such as average latency and CPU utilization. Our research is a significant advance in understanding how to optimize data processing systems to meet the demands of the modern data landscape.

Hou, Shiyue↗

A Tanks-in-Series Approach to Estimate Parameters for Lithium-Ion Battery Models

Advanced Battery Management Systems (BMS) play a vital role in monitoring, predicting, and controlling the performance of lithium-ion batteries. BMS employing sophisticated electrochemical models can help increase battery cycle life and minimize charging time. However, in order to realize the full potential of electrochemical model-based BMS, it is critical to ensure accurate predictions and proper model parameterization. The accuracy of the predictions of an electrochemical model is dependent on the accuracy of its parameters, the values of which might change with battery cycling and aging. Parameter estimation for an electrochemical model is generally challenging due to the nonlinear nature and computational complexity of the model equations. To this end, this work utilizes the recently proposed Tanks-in-Series model for Li-ion batteries (J.Electrochem. Soc., 167, 013534 (2020)) to perform parameter estimation. The Tanks-in-Series approach allows for substantially faster parameter estimation compared to the original pseudo two-dimensional (p2D) model. The objective of this work is thus to demonstrate the gain in computational efficiency from the Tanks-in-Series approach. A sensitivity analysis of model parameters is also performed to benchmark the fidelity of the Tanks-in-Series model.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

3D Tracking of a Single Electron in IOTA

High-resolution observations of single-particle dynamics have potential as a powerful tool in the diagnostics, tuning and design of storage rings. We are presenting the results of experiments with single electrons that were conducted at Fermilab’s IOTA ring to explore the feasibility of this approach. A set of sensitive, high-resolution digital cameras was used to detect the synchrotron radiation emitted by an electron, and the resulting images were used to reconstruct the time evolution of oscillation amplitudes in all three degrees of freedom. From the evolution of the oscillation amplitudes, we deduce transverse emittances, momentum spread, damping times, beam energy and estimated residual-gas density and composition. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the dynamics of a single particle in a storage ring has been tracked in all three dimensions. We discuss farther development of a single particle diagnostics that may allow reconstruction of its turn-by-turn coordinates over macroscopic periods of time facilitating ultra-precise lattice diagnostics and direct benchmarking of tracking codes.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

NASA Data for Water Resources Applications

Water Management Applications is one of twelve elements in the Earth Science Enterprise National Applications Program. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is supporting the Applications Program through partnering with other organizations to use NASA project results, such as from satellite instruments and Earth system models to enhance the organizations critical needs. The focus thus far has been: 1) estimating water storage including snowpack and soil moisture, 2) modeling and predicting water fluxes such as evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation and river runoff, and 3) remote sensing of water quality, including both point source (e.g., turbidity and productivity) and non-point source (e.g., land cover conversion such as forest to agriculture yielding higher nutrient runoff). The objectives of the partnering cover three steps of: 1) Evaluation, 2) Verification and Validation, and 3) Benchmark Report. We are working with the U.S. federal agencies including the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) and the Department of Agriculture (USDA). We are using several of their Decision Support Systems (DSS) tools. This includes the DSS support tools BASINS used by EPA, Riverware and AWARDS ET ToolBox by USBR and SWAT by USDA and EPA. Regional application sites using NASA data across the US. are currently being eliminated for the DSS tools. The current NASA data emphasized thus far are from the Land Data Assimilation Systems WAS) and MODIS satellite products. We are currently in the first two steps of evaluation and verification validation. Water Management Applications is one of twelve elements in the Earth Science Enterprise s National Applications Program. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is supporting the Applications Program through partnering with other organizations to use NASA project results, such as from satellite instruments and Earth system models to enhance the organizations critical needs. The focus thus far has been: 1) estimating water storage including snowpack and soil moisture, 2) modeling and predicting water fluxes such as evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation and river runoff, and 3) remote sensing of water quality, including both point source (e.g., turbidity and productivity) and non-point source (e.g., land cover conversion such as forest to agriculture yielding higher nutrient runoff). The objectives of the partnering cover three steps of 1) Evaluation, 2) Verification and Validation, and 3) Benchmark Report. We are working with the U.S. federal agencies the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) and the Department of Agriculture (USDA). We are using several of their Decision Support Systems (DSS) tools. T us includes the DSS support tools BASINS used by EPA, Riverware and AWARDS ET ToolBox by USBR and SWAT by USDA and EPA. Regional application sites using NASA data across the US. are currently being evaluated for the DSS tools. The current NASA data emphasized thus far are from the Land Data Assimilation Systems (LDAS) and MODIS satellite products. We are currently in the first two steps of evaluation and verification and validation.

Toll, David↗

Computational Tools to Design Molten Salt Electrolytes for High-Temperature Environments

Current Li-ion batteries are designed for a small operating window of 5 °C to 55 °C. Modifications to the electrolyte for operation in Mars atmosphere extended this range on the lower bound to ~ -40 °C. These operating-temperature ranges are far from those presented in high-temperature environments, such as the Venus surface, where temperatures are around 450 °C. Protecting the state-of-the-art Li-ion batteries require insulations that decreases the volumetric capacity and limiting the operational time-window. These unique challenges require a paradigm shift in materials used for designing high-temperature batteries. Molten salt electrolyte-based batteries offer a plausible route to designing high-temperature batteries. ZEBRA batteries are known to be one of the safest energy storage devices operating at 270-350 °C. Nitrate based eutectics, operating at 150 °C have also been used in Li-O2 batteries. In this study, we will examine molten-salt electrolyte transport and electrochemical properties using first-principles computations and benchmark against experiments. Further, we will present thermodynamics-based models for designing and predicting melting point of molten salt mixtures. Based on these computational tools, new molten salt mixtures designed with desired operating temperatures and electrochemical windows will be presented. Implications of these new eutectics in the context of high-temperature environment exploration will also be discussed.

Balachandran Radhakrishnan↗

Seasonal forecasting skill for the High Mountain Asia region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorologically relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks to months is an area of active research and development. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1–3-month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981–2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2 m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to the similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from an anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system's ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal Forecasting Skill for the High Mountain Asia Region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorological relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks-to-months is an area of active research and development. NASA’s 15 Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1-3 month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian Subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981-2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2-m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and 20 Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are 25 evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system’s ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

GEOS↗