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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2000

Probabilistic Structural Analysis of the Solid Rocket Booster Aft Skirt External Fitting Modification

NASA has funded several major programs (the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods Project is an example) to develop probabilistic structural analysis methods and tools for engineers to apply in the design and assessment of aerospace hardware. A probabilistic finite element software code, known as Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress, is used to determine the reliability of a critical weld of the Space Shuttle solid rocket booster aft skirt. An external bracket modification to the aft skirt provides a comparison basis for examining the details of the probabilistic analysis and its contributions to the design process. Also, analysis findings are compared with measured Space Shuttle flight data.

Townsend, John S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Practical Approach to Uncertainty Quantification Using Probability Boxes

To date, while the use of CFD for aerospace vehicle design and development is prevalent, the documentation of uncertainties associated with the simulations are rare. Instead, the current state-of-the-art relies heavily on the experience of the CFD practitioner to estimate the uncertainty associated with their simulations through simple sensitivity studies or subject matter expertise. This practice will have to be replaced with a formal uncertainty quantification (UQ) process if CFD is to play an expanded role in the research and engineering design community, test and evaluation community, and ultimately certification for flight. Accounting for uncertainties in a formal manner is a tedious process. Moreover, the typical CFD practitioner is not likely to be familiar with formal UQ methods. These factors have prevented the adoption of UQ methods in the engineering design and development cycle. This presentation will outline a credible approach to UQ using Probability Boxes that is straightforward to apply, and can readily be automated using existing UQ tool sets such as the DAKOTA packaged developed at Sandia. The added expense incurred when moving away from a deterministic CFD process to a stochastic one that captures uncertainties to enable risk-informed decision making will be discussed, as well as effective ways to reduce the computational costs.

Uncertainty Quantification↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward data assimilation of ship-induced aerosol–cloud interactions

Satellite imagery can detect temporary cloud trails or ship tracks formed from aerosols emitted from large ships traversing our oceans, a phenomenon that global climate models cannot directly reproduce. Ship tracks are observable examples of marine cloud brightening, a potential solar climate intervention that shows promise in helping combat climate change. In this paper, we demonstrate a simulation-based approach in learning the behavior of ship tracks based upon a novel stochastic emulation mechanism. Our method uses wind fields to determine the movement of aerosol–cloud tracks and uses a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) to model their persistence behavior. This SPDE incorporates both a drift and diffusion term which describes the movement of aerosol particles via wind and their diffusivity through the atmosphere, respectively. We first present our proposed approach with examples using simulated wind fields and ship paths. We then successfully demonstrate our tool by applying the approximate Bayesian computation method-sequential Monte Carlo for data assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Neuromorphic scaling advantages for energy-efficient random walk computations

Computing stands to be radically improved by neuromorphic computing (NMC) approaches inspired by the brain's incredible efficiency and capabilities. Most NMC research, which aims to replicate the brain's computational structure and architecture in man-made hardware, has focused on artificial intelligence; however, less explored is whether this brain-inspired hardware can provide value beyond cognitive tasks. We demonstrate that high-degree parallelism and configurability of spiking neuromorphic architectures makes them well-suited to implement random walks via discrete time Markov chains. Such random walks are useful in Monte Carlo methods, which represent a fundamental computational tool for solving a wide range of numerical computing tasks. Additionally, we show how the mathematical basis for a probabilistic solution involving a class of stochastic differential equations can leverage those simulations to provide solutions for a range of broadly applicable computational tasks. Despite being in an early development stage, we find that NMC platforms, at a sufficient scale, can drastically reduce the energy demands of high-performance computing platforms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Route Optimization for Energy Efficient Airport Shuttle Operations - A Case Study from Dallas Fort Worth International Airport

Air travel and requisite surface traffic supporting passenger arrival/departure constitutes a significant portion of travel and emissions in cities with large airports. An airport trip can segment into three parts namely: i) travel from a location in the city to the airport; ii) travel from a parking lot or rental car center to the terminal (i.e., within the airport premises), and iii) travel inside the terminal. Depending on the airport access mode all or a part of these legs comprise a traveler’s journey to the airport. The priority of airport ground transport management teams is to provide passengers with a seamless travel experience within the airport, so it is understandable that within airport shuttle routes might not be optimized for minimizing energy consumption. Solutions that meet the dual objective of reducing energy consumption from airport shuttle operations without compromising on passenger travel experience are key to improving system efficiency. There is currently a dearth of research and tools that can inform airports in making such decisions. Addressing this need, this research effort puts forth an optimization model that generates optimal shuttle routes for a given set of constraints, and a discrete-event simulator that evaluates the optimal solutions in a stochastic environment to understand the tradeoffs between passenger wait times, and within airport shuttle energy consumption. The proposed set of tools are tested in the context of optimizing airport shuttles routes within the Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW). In addition to shuttle spatial positioning, and passenger demand information, high-fidelity vehicle data was collected using data loggers installed on DFW shuttles. Results show that 20% energy reduction in shuttle operations is possible with a modest two-minute increase in average passenger wait times. The tools developed in this research effort are designed to be generalizable and can help optimize shuttle operations planning at any major airport.

air travel↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Stochastic Variability in Multiband Time-series Data

In preparation for the era of time-domain astronomy with upcoming large-scale surveys, we propose a state-space representation of a multivariate damped random walk process as a tool to analyze irregularly-spaced multifilter light curves with heteroscedastic measurement errors. We adopt a computationally efficient and scalable Kalman filtering approach to evaluate the likelihood function, leading to maximum O(k 3 n) complexity, where k is the number of available bands and n is the number of unique observation times across the k bands. This is a significant computational advantage over a commonly used univariate Gaussian process that can stack up all multiband light curves in one vector with maximum O(k 3 n 3 ) complexity. Using such efficient likelihood computation, we provide both maximum likelihood estimates and Bayesian posterior samples of the model parameters. Three numerical illustrations are presented: (i) analyzing simulated five-band light curves for a comparison with independent single-band fits; (ii) analyzing five-band light curves of a quasar obtained from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 to estimate short-term variability and timescale; (iii) analyzing gravitationally lensed g- and r-band light curves of Q0957+561 to infer the time delay. Two R packages, Rdrw and timedelay, are publicly available to fit the proposed models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Hybrid FPOG Applications in Regulated and Deregulated Markets Using HERON

Recent changes in the U.S. energy market, such as low natural gas prices and increased electricity production for variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, have led to an economic crisis for existing light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPP). Many owners and operators of LWRs have elected to decommission these plants rather than continue using them as consistent sources of clean baseload power. This has led to exploration of various possibilities to increase the economic viability of these units, including market restructuring to monetize benefits LWRs already provide to the grid through ancillary markets, load following and economic dispatch, and possible integration of secondary systems directly to the NPP for production of additional products through technologies such as hydrogen electrolysis or water desalination. Previous studies have considered the technologies associated with these Integrated Energy Systems (IES) activities, and the analysis of markets for these secondary products. To analyze the economic viability of various system configurations including IES, especially given the uncertainty surrounding load demand, electricity prices, and the availability of VRE resources, the stochastic technoeconomic analysis package HERON (Heuristic Energy Resource Optimization Network) was released earlier this year as an extension of the risk analysis framework RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual Environment). HERON focuses foremost on making the complex uncertainty quantification analysis tools approachable for energy systems analysts, also providing general dispatch optimization algorithms for those workflows. HERON continues to be improved and tested as a significant part of the IES viability analyses performed in this work. HERON is not a capacity expansion model. To consider market and grid energy system development in a variety of scenarios, HERON is best used in coupling with modelling tools such as US-REGEN, which sacrifice some of the uncertainty analysis and resolution of HERON's modelling for the ability to efficiently predict the change in the grid energy system's profile due to economic drivers over decades. HERON can then use this information to explore the economic viability of introducing changes to the predicted outcomes, such as the introduction of an IES. In this work, experts at EPRI using US-REGEN provide six projection scenarios for use in HERON stochastic technoeconomic analysis (STEA) in considering the options available for increasing LWR economic viability through introduction of a hydrogen-centric IES using a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant (HTSE), hydrogen storage, and a constant-rate contracted hydrogen consumer. The results obtained are differential in nature; they do not report expected profits for any configuration, but rather report on the possible increase in the NPV of a configuration with respect to a baseline no-IES configuration. Due to the uncertainty captured in the variable net load of the systems, there is likewise uncertainty in the mean values reported. We consider this viability both in terms of a regulated market, where the energy producers and IES are owned and operated by single entity, as well as a deregulated market, where the IES chooses its bid for electricity generation and is then dispatched by the grid system operator. Results indicate that for deregulated markets, the inclusion of the IES is often statistically beneficial. This is especially true in policies that are not favorable towards nuclear, as nuclear is less often dispatched and is forced to deal with frequent idle capacity. In the nominal case as well as the case of carbon tax policies, inclusion of the IES clearly benefited the economic performance of the NPP. In the regulated case, however, there was a trend towards minimizing the IES, likely due to the optimal sizing performed by US-REGEN of the NPP within the system as well as the lack of penalty for idle capacity at the NPP in the regulated market analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Crossing the Streams – Sampler and the TemplateEngine [Slides]

This presentation discusses Sampler, which is a versatile UQ and parametric study tool that can be applied to any SCALE Sequence. Sampler can perturb any quantity in any SCALE input. Recent work at ORNL has developed new types of covariance data that allow Sampler UQ to be applied to nearly all SCALE applications, including reactor depletion, UNF fuel characterization, source term analysis, and decay heat calculation. In SCALE 6.2 releases, CE data in transport cannot be perturbed. Sampler was originally designed for stochastic sampling with any sequence within SCALE and Parametric capability added in SCALE 6.2.2. Sampler can be used for uncertainty quantification, including sample data in static or depletion calculations and sample inputs for uncertainties in compositions and dimensions. The SCALE TemplateEngine allows for expanding templates to full inputs and the combination provides a powerful UQ tool.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A low-cost and realistic noisy light system for studying photosynthesis

Unlike the light conditions commonly used to grow photosynthetic organisms in the research laboratory, the light intensity in real environments is dynamic. A simple and low-cost system is described in which a commercial dimmable LED panel is controlled to simulate a sinusoidal function representing daylight hours and overlaid with stochastic shading events. The output closely resembles light intensity measurements on Earth’s surface on partly cloudy days or in lower levels of plant canopies. Here, this tool may be useful to researchers studying photosynthetic acclimation responses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Novel Deep Reinforcement Learning Approach to Traffic Signal Control with Connected Vehicles

The advent of connected vehicle (CV) technology offers new possibilities for a revolution in future transportation systems. With the availability of real-time traffic data from CVs, it is possible to more effectively optimize traffic signals to reduce congestion, increase fuel efficiency, and enhance road safety. The success of CV-based signal control depends on an accurate and computationally efficient model that accounts for the stochastic and nonlinear nature of the traffic flow. Without the necessity of prior knowledge of the traffic system’s model architecture, reinforcement learning (RL) is a promising tool to acquire the control policy through observing the transition of the traffic states. In this paper, we propose a novel data-driven traffic signal control method that leverages the latest in deep learning and reinforcement learning techniques. By incorporating a compressed representation of the traffic states, the proposed method overcomes the limitations of the existing methods in defining the action space to include more practical and flexible signal phases. The simulation results demonstrate the convergence and robust performance of the proposed method against several existing benchmark methods in terms of average vehicle speeds, queue length, wait time, and traffic density.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1992

Structural reliability assessment capability in NESSUS

The principal capabilities of NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress), an advanced computer code developed for probabilistic structural response analysis, are reviewed, and its structural reliability assessed. The code combines flexible structural modeling tools with advanced probabilistic algorithms in order to compute probabilistic structural response and resistance, component reliability and risk, and system reliability and risk. An illustrative numerical example is presented.

Millwater, H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling the Stochastic Response of Fiber Reinforced Composites with Varied Representative Volume Element Sizes

Fiber reinforced composites are desirable in applications where low weight and high strength are needed, but are susceptible to variability and flaws during manufacturing, making failure predictions difficult. These flaws may occur at the microscale where mechanical properties vary locally due to regions of fiber clusters and matrix pockets. In this study, a multiscale approach was taken to model 3-point bend, 4-point bend, and tensile experiments of a unidirectional composite from only having microstructure scans of these samples and constituent properties from literature. These scans were sampled with different sized windows, and statistically equivalent microstructures were generated, then simulated for stiffness, strength, and fracture toughness using a reduced order micromechanical model and NASA’s Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT). Mesoscale models were created with equivalent element sizes to microstructures and properties sampled from microscale simulation results. Results showed how microscale size affects certain mechanical properties. Also shown is how well mesoscale models agree to experiments when using stochastic element properties and varying element size.

microstructure↗
DOE OSTI2023

Classification of four-qubit entangled states via machine learning

We apply the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm to derive a set of entanglement witnesses (EW) to identify entanglement patterns in families of four-qubit states. The effectiveness of SVM for practical EW implementations stems from the coarse-grained description of families of equivalent entangled quantum states. The equivalence criteria in our work is based on the stochastic local operations and classical communication classification and the description of the four-qubit entangled Werner states. We numerically verify that the SVM approach provides an effective tool to address the entanglement witness problem when the coarse-grained description of a given family state is available. Here, we also discuss and demonstrate the efficiency of nonlinear kernel SVM methods as applied to four-qubit entangled state classification.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1992

Observations on the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition

The Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (P.O.D.), also known as the Karhunen-Loeve expansion, is a procedure for decomposing a stochastic field in an L(2) optimal sense. It is used in diverse disciplines from image processing to turbulence. Recently the P.O.D. is receiving much attention as a tool for studying dynamics of systems in infinite dimensional space. This paper reviews the mathematical fundamentals of this theory. Also included are results on the span of the eigenfunction basis, a geometric corollary due to Chebyshev's inequality and a relation between the P.O.D. symmetry and ergodicity.

Berkooz, Gal↗
NASA NTRS2004

Development of Improved Models, Stochasticity, and Frameworks for the MIT Extensible Air Network Simulation

MEANS, the MIT Extensible Air Network Simulation, was created in February of 2001, and has been developed with support from NASA Ames since August of 2001. MEANS is a simulation tool which is designed to maximize fidelity without requiring data of such a low level as to preclude easy examination of alternative scenarios. To this end, MEANS is structured in a modular fashion to allow more detailed components to be brought in when desired, and left out when they would only be an impediment. Traditionally, one of the difficulties with high-fidelity models is that they require a level of detail in their data that is difficult to obtain. For analysis of past scenarios, the required data may not have been collected, or may be considered proprietary and thus difficult for independent researchers to obtain. For hypothetical scenarios, generation of the data is sufficiently difficult to be a task in and of itself. Often, simulations designed by a researcher will model exactly one element of the problem well and in detail, while assuming away other parts of the problem which are not of interest or for which data is not available. While these models are useful for working with the task at hand, they are very often not applicable to future problems. The MEAN Simulation attempts to address these problems by using a modular design which provides components of varying fidelity for each aspect of the simulation. This allows for the most accurate model for which data is available to be used. It also provides for easy analysis of sensitivity to data accuracy. This can be particularly useful in the case where accurate data is available for some subset of the situations that are to be considered. Furthermore, the ability to use the same model while examining effects on different parts of a system reduces the time spent learning the simulation, and provides for easier comparisons between changes to different parts of the system.

Clarke, John-Paul↗
DOE OSTI2021

Release a public version of HERON (HERON 2.0) with improved algorithms for the treatment of energy storage

Integrated energy systems (IESs) are essential for decarbonizing electricity and industrial sectors and fully exploiting these systems requires sophisticated planning, scheduling, and dispatching tools to maximize their socio-economic benefits. The Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) is a generic software plugin for the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) to perform stochastic technoeconomic analysis of IES with economic drivers. This report summarizes the updates made to HERON 2.0. Particularly, we demonstrate one of the added features, Function-based Control Mechanics, by comparing a price-based dispatch strategy with the original perfect foresight baselines. Our case studies successfully demonstrate that the model is capable to incorporate artificial control algorithm into the dispatch of IES components. In addition, our results from the price-based strategy indicate that the control strategies of IES components are key to the economic and temporal performance of our model; therefore, more sophisticated dispatch strategies are required to improve the model performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Variational Monte Carlo Calculations of A ≤ 4 Nuclei with an Artificial Neural-Network Correlator Ansatz

Here, the complexity of many-body quantum wave functions is a central aspect of several fields of physics and chemistry where nonperturbative interactions are prominent. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have proven to be a flexible tool to approximate quantum many-body states in condensed matter and chemistry problems. In this work we introduce a neural-network quantum state ansatz to model the ground-state wave function of light nuclei, and approximately solve the nuclear many-body Schrodinger equation. Using efficient stochastic sampling and optimization schemes, our approach extends pioneering applications of ANNs in the field, which present exponentially scaling algorithmic complexity. We compute the binding energies and point-nucleon densities of A ≤ 4 nuclei as emerging from a leading-order pionless effective field theory Hamiltonian. We successfully benchmark the ANN wave function against more conventional parametrizations based on two- and three-body Jastrow functions, and virtually exact Green's function Monte Carlo results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Social network structure and the spread of complex contagions from a population genetics perspective

Ideas, behaviors, and opinions spread through social networks. If the probability of spreading to a new individual is a non-linear function of the fraction of the individuals’ affected neighbors, such a spreading process becomes a “complex contagion”. This non-linearity does not typically appear with physically spreading infections, but instead can emerge when the concept that is spreading is subject to game theoretical considerations (e.g. for choices of strategy or behavior) or psychological effects such as social reinforcement and other forms of peer influence (e.g. for ideas, preferences, or opinions). Here we study how the stochastic dynamics of such complex contagions are affected by the underlying network structure. Motivated by simulations of complex contagions on real social networks, we present a framework for analyzing the statistics of contagions with arbitrary non-linear adoption probabilities based on the mathematical tools of population genetics. The central idea is to use an effective lower-dimensional diffusion process to approximate the statistics of the contagion. This leads to a tradeoff between the effects of ”selection” (microscopic tendencies for an idea to spread or die out), random drift, and network structure. Our framework illustrates intuitively several key properties of complex contagions: stronger community structure and network sparsity can significantly enhance the spread, while broad degree distributions dampen the effect of selection compared to random drift. Finally, we show that some structural features can exhibit critical values that demarcate regimes where global contagions become possible for networks of arbitrary size. Our results draw parallels between the competition of genes in a population and memes in a world of minds and ideas. Our tools provide insight into the spread of information, behaviors, and ideas via social influence, and highlight the role of macroscopic network structure in determining their fate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗