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Results for “statistically designed experiments”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Responsiveness of miscanthus and switchgrass yields to stand age and nitrogen fertilization: A meta‐regression analysis

Abstract Optimal management of the perennial bioenergy crops, miscanthus and switchgrass, requires an understanding of their responsiveness to nitrogen (N) fertilizer at different maturity stages across locations and growing conditions. Earlier studies that have examined the yield response of these crops to N and stand age using field experiments or meta‐analysis techniques provide mixed evidence. We extend earlier studies by applying a multi‐level mixed‐effects (MLME) meta‐regression model to conduct a more extensive multivariate regression of yield response of these crops to N and stand age, while controlling for climate and location conditions and unobserved factors related to study design. Our findings are based on 1403 and 2811 yield observations for miscanthus and switchgrass, respectively, from experiments conducted between 2002 and 2019 across the rainfed region in the United States. We find statistically significant evidence that an additional year of maturity increases miscanthus and switchgrass yields but at a decreasing rate; yields peak at the 7th and 6th year respectively, for the observed range of applied N rates and stands. We also find that an increase in N application increases yield by a statistically significant level, but at a declining rate; the magnitude of the yield response to N is, however, small and varies with the age of the crop. The impact of N is larger on older compared to younger and middle‐aged stands of miscanthus. In contrast, the impact of N on switchgrass is larger on middle‐aged compared to younger and older stands of switchgrass. We do not find a statistically significant effect of soil productivity on yield for either crop. This analysis provides a basis for developing N application recommendations and optimal rotation age for miscanthus and switchgrass and shows that these energy crops can grow just as productively on low productivity land as on high productivity land.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Influence of the laser light absorption by the colloid on the properties of silver nanoparticles produced by laser ablation in stirred and stationary liquid

Silver nanoparticles were produced by nanosecond pulsed-laser ablation at 1064 nm of Ag in pure water. These experiments were performed using an alternative ablation cell design where a cylindrical shaped Ag target was horizontally irradiated, while the liquid was stirred by a stir rod coaxially arranged to the target. The repeatability of the generated colloids properties (extinction and size distribution) is assessed by statistical tools. The colloids properties prepared under stationary liquid are found to be unpredictable, while they are highly repeatable at high stirring speed. At the same time, electronic microscopy examinations of the irradiated Ag targets revealed that the width of the laser-machined grooves exponentially decays in stationary liquid and almost linearly under high stirring speed as the ablation proceeds. In the latter case, the decay rate was found to be constant from one experiment to the other, while it was not repeatable stationary liquid. We show that the decay of the groove width is due to an attenuation of the laser energy reaching the target surface due to the formation of a more or less dense NPs layer in front of the target as the ablation proceeds. Using the ablation time-dependence of the groove width, we can quantify the attenuation factor of the laser energy with exposure time. Finally, the relationship between the laser energy attenuation, stirring speed, and repeatability of the colloids properties is interpreted and discussed in terms of mass transfer.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Effects of Platform Design on the Customer Experience in an Online Solar PV Marketplace

We analyze a unique dataset of residential solar PV quotes offered in an online marketplace to understand how platform design changes affect customer outcomes. Three of the four design changes are associated with statistically significant and robust reductions in offer prices, though none of the policies were designed explicitly to reduce prices. The results suggest that even small changes in how prospective solar PV customers interact with installers can affect customer outcomes such as prices. Specifically, the four changes we evaluate are: 1) a customer map that shows potential new EnergySage registrants the locations of nearby customers; 2) a quote cap that precludes more than seven installers from bidding on any one customer; 3) a price guidance feature that informs installers about competitive prices in the customer's market before they submit quotes; and 4) no pre-quote messaging to prohibit installers from contacting customers prior to offering quotes. We calculate descriptive statistics to investigate whether each design change accomplished its specific objectives. Then, we econometrically evaluate the impacts of the design changes on PV quote prices and purchase prices using a regression discontinuity approach.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-Temperature SiC Cladding End Plug Irradiation Design and HFIR Readiness

This report documents the design of a High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) irradiation experiment intended to evaluate irradiation effects on the hermeticity of silicon carbide (SiC) end plug specimens under a radial fast neutron flux gradient at representative light-water reactor (LWR) temperatures of approximately 300 °C. The overarching goal of this work is to statistically evaluate SiC end plug hermeticity and mechanical properties following irradiation using the high-throughput irradiation capability discussed here. Each specimen consists of a short section of SiC fiber–reinforced SiC (SiC/SiC) tube with a single monolithic SiC end plug joined to one end. The experiment allows up to 66 specimens to be irradiated in six different stacks within a dry, sealed irradiation capsule derived from the previously developed high-temperature SiC/SiC cladding bowing experiment. The neutronics basis, thermal analysis, and HFIR readiness of the experiment are discussed in this report for two possible design cases. The first design case is based on existing approval documentation and components that are on hand and approved for use, so the experiment insertion would require only specimen receipt, specimen pre-irradiation characterization, experiment assembly, and final fabrication package approval. The second design case provides improved thermal robustness and the preferred end plug geometry but requires fabrication of a modified holder and revisions to the HFIR approval documentation, in addition to the other activities required for the first design case, before insertion.

Hott, Daniel [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-Throughput Discovery Illuminates Design Principles and Limits for Long-Lived Charged Species in Organic Electrolytes

The chemical stability of charged molecules in all-organic redox flow batteries (RFBs) is required for the prolonged operation of these devices. Molecular engineering and electrolyte optimization are used to mitigate parasitic reactions and extend the lifetimes of the charge carriers. However, how much can structural variation extend the lifetime? To probe this query, we designed a high-throughput kinetic study of the radical cation of N-methylphenothiazinium, guided by statistical sampling and learning algorithms. Using Argonne’s autonomous discovery facility, we conducted over 6,000 kinetic experiments with robotic sample preparation, parallel kinetic measurements, and machine learning inputs, testing 188 solvent molecules selected from a space of over 540 candidates from 11 chemical classes. Algorithmic selections guided us to stable solvent candidates, which were further tested in high concentration with and without supporting electrolyte. Our findings reveal the inherent difficulty of exceeding the current state of the art through solvent variation. The desired stability is statistically rare and poorly predictable. Among the many tested, only three solvents significantly outperformed our baseline, acetonitrile─and none by more than a factor of 3─suggesting a general challenge in achieving the necessary techno-economic targets. Furthermore, we suggest that self-discharge through solvent homolysis is the cause of the observed limitations. Several structural motifs contribute to >1,000 h half-life stability including molecular simplicity, symmetry, oxidation complement, and strategic fluorination. Importantly, this workflow establishes effective assays for diagnosing and predicting oxidative stress for highly stable liquid electrolytes in all batteries.

Batteries↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving Self-Driving Labs: Quantifying System-Level Experiment Repeatability and Broadening Instrument-Level Compatibility

Modular Autonomous Research System (MARS) is a self-driving laboratory (SDL) which performs wet-lab science with peptide-lanthanide combinations in an automated and, ultimately, an autonomous manner to aid in soil analysis for domestic lithium mining. Autonomous experimentation involves automated experimentation, experiment planning, and active learning. MARS consists of a 6-axis robotic arm (UR5e) on a linear rail, pipette robots (Opentrons 2), and microplate readers. These components transport, operate on, and collect data with chemical solutions in standard labware. For effective autonomy, MARS must perform system-level labware operations repeatably, plan experiments autonomously, and be portable between research-domains. Repeatability is evaluated by labware placement precision, such that future operations can properly locate labware, as well as the elapsed time, so that low variance mean estimates of experiment duration can inform high-level researcher decision making. Autonomous experiment planning is the next step to decouple experimentation from human management; however, there is a conflict between the ideal system-level experiment goals and the constraints imposed by instruments’ limitations. Sub-domain portability is a long-term goal to extend MARS’ research beyond the chemistry of peptide-lanthanide binding to other sub-domains without having to invest significant overhead to system retrofitting. To address these goals, we manually trained the robotic arm labware placement and modelled statistical failurerate and uncertainty Additionally, we benchmarked the duration and variance of each experiment sub-operation as a heuristic for research decision making. Next, we use a parameterized geometric program (PGP) approach to design experiments that optimize system-level objectives and satisfy instrument-level constraints. Lastly, we proposed a Python framework to maximize MARS’ extensibility to other scientific sub-domains through a JSON-based experiment specification.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Road to PROSPECT-II

The Precision Reactor Oscillation and SPECTrum (PROSPECT) experiment is based in a segmented liquid scintillator antineutrino detector situated approximately 7 meters from the highly enriched High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Its main goal is to investigate short-baseline antineutrino oscillations. The first phase of data collection, known as PROSPECT-I, was held from 2018 to 2019 and was used for several high-precision analyses, including multiple measurements of the $^{235}U$ antineutrino spectrum and searches for $eV$-scale sterile antineutrino oscillations. The collaboration is now preparing for the second phase, PROSPECT-II, which features an upgraded detector design. This advancement will enhance sensitivity and statistical power, allowing for a broader range of analyses beyond those achieved in PROSPECT-I. As we transition into this new phase, new questions have arisen concerning background simulation and its potential differences from those conducted during the initial phase of the experiment. Moreover, it is essential to ascertain, through simulations, the positive effects that an improved detector could have on the study of oscillations. This information is crucial for justifying the proposed enhancements, and I will cover all of this in the talk.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Road to PROSPECT-II

The Precision Reactor Oscillation and SPECTrum (PROSPECT) experiment is based in a segmented liquid scintillator antineutrino detector situated approximately 7 meters from the highly enriched High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Its main goal is to investigate short-baseline antineutrino oscillations. The first phase of data collection, known as PROSPECT-I, was held from 2018 to 2019 and was used for several high-precision analyses, including multiple measurements of the $^{235}U$ antineutrino spectrum and searches for $eV$-scale sterile antineutrino oscillations. The collaboration is now preparing for the second phase, PROSPECT-II, which features an upgraded detector design. This advancement will enhance sensitivity and statistical power, allowing for a broader range of analyses beyond those achieved in PROSPECT-I. As we transition into this new phase, new questions have arisen concerning background simulation and its potential differences from those conducted during the initial phase of the experiment. Moreover, it is essential to ascertain, through simulations, the positive effects that an improved detector could have on the study of oscillations. This information is crucial for justifying the proposed enhancements, and I will cover all of this in the talk.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Antenna arrays for neutrino mass measurements with cyclotron radiation emission spectroscopy

Cyclotron Radiation Emission Spectroscopy (CRES) is a technique for precision measurements of kinetic energies of charged particles, pioneered by the Project 8 experiment to measure the neutrino mass using the tritium end-point method. It was recently employed for the first time to measure the molecular tritium spectrum and place a limit on the neutrino mass using a cubic-centimeter-scale detector. Future direct neutrino mass experiments are developing the technique to overcome the systematic and statistical limitations of current detectors. Here, this paper describes one such approach, namely the use of antenna arrays for CRES in free space. Phenomenology, detector design, simulation, and performance estimates are discussed, culminating with an example design with a projected sensitivity of 𝑚 𝛽 < ⁢0.04 eV/𝑐 2 . Prototype antenna array measurements are also shown for a demonstrator-scale setup as a benchmark for the simulation. By consolidating these results, this paper serves as a comprehensive reference for the development and performance of antenna arrays for CRES.

Physics - Nuclear physics and radiation physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Anomaly Identification of Synchronized Voltage Waveform for Situational Awareness of Low Inertia Systems

Inverter-based resources (IBRs) such as photovoltaics (PVs), wind turbines, and battery energy storage systems (BESSs) are widely deployed in low-carbon power systems. However, these resources typically do not provide the inertia needed for grid stability, resulting in a low-inertia power system. IBRs and lack of inertia have been known to cause anomalies such as waveform distortions and wideband oscillations in power systems due to the limited inertia level, leading to increased generation trips and load shedding. Here, to achieve effective anomaly identification, this paper proposes a synchro-waveform-based algorithm utilizing real-time synchronized voltage waveform measurements from waveform measurement units (WMUs). In the proposed method, different physical characteristics, as well as statistical features, are extracted from synchronized voltage waveform measurements to filter anomalies. Then, the anomaly identification approach based on the random forest is developed and deployed into the FNET/GridEye system considering trade-offs among accuracy, computational burden, and deployment cost. Moreover, four WMUs are specially designed and deployed on Kauai Island to receive instantaneous synchronized voltage waveform measurements. To verify the performance of the proposed algorithm, different experiments are carried out with collected field test data. The result demonstrates that the performance of the proposed synchro-waveform-based anomaly categorization algorithm can accurately identify anomalies 95.35% of the time, which has comparable performance among benchmarking algorithms.

Situational awareness↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep learning-based predictive models for laser direct drive at the Omega Laser Facility

The rich and complex physics of inertial confinement fusion provides a unique and challenging space for high-fidelity first-principles modeling. Consequently, simulation codes that are used to design experiments are computationally expensive and lack the predictive capability required for extensive parameter exploration in search of a high-performing design for laser direct drive. In this article, we present two deep-learning-based predictive models intended to address these difficulties. The first model (TL DNN) acts as a fast emulator of simulations as well as experiments at the Omega Laser Facility. This model is trained on a simulation database and subsequently calibrated on experimental data using transfer learning. To facilitate the development of this model, an autoencoder is developed to reduce the dimensionality of the input space by compressing the laser pulse input. The model predicts key experimental scalar observables of Omega experiments with high accuracy and minimal computational cost. This deep neural net enables rapid exploration of a high-dimensional input parameter space for an optimal implosion design. The second model (DNN SM+) aims to extend the statistical modeling work of Lees et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 127, 105001 (2021)], by increasing the complexity of the model space and allowing for coupling between degradation terms. Since the model capacity of DNN SM+ is higher than the model of Lees et al., DNN SM+ can potentially provide an improvement in predictive capability, and we use this model to provide insight into complicated degradation dependencies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Omics-Lethal Human Viruses, West Nile Experiment WLN002

The purpose of this experiment was to evaluate the host response to wild-type West Nile virus infectious clone (WNV-NY99 clone 382) and mutant WNV-E218A (WNV-NY99 382 E218A 2 nt) virus infection. Sample data was obtained from mouse popliteal draining lymph nodes for mRNA and miRNA expression analysis. See Experiment WLN003 for corresponding omics analysis. Secondary host-associated viral dataset downloads contain one or more statistically processed (normalization data transformation) quantitative dataset collections resulting in qualitative expression analyses of primary host-pathogen experimental study designs. Transcriptomics dataset downloads have a direct relationship to a primary sample submission corresponding to a specific West Nile virus infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Omics-Lethal Human Viruses, West Nile Experiment WLN003

The purpose of this experiment was to evaluate the host response to wild-type West Nile virus infectious clone (WNV-NY99 clone 382) and mutant WNV-E218A (WNV-NY99 382 E218A 2 nt) virus infection. Sample data was obtained from mouse popliteal draining lymph nodes for proteomics, metabolomics, and lipidomics expression analysis. See Experiment WLN002 for corresponding transcriptome analysis. Secondary host-associated viral dataset downloads contain one or more statistically processed (normalization data transformation) quantitative dataset collections resulting in qualitative expression analyses of primary host-pathogen experimental study designs. Leveraging unique high-resolution Omics capabilities for proteomics, metabolomics, and lipidomics dataset downloads each have a direct relationship to a primary sample submission corresponding to a specific West Nile virus infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

Banff Challenge 2

Experimental particle physics collaborations constantly seek newer and better ideas for improving the sensitivity of their searches for new particles and phenomena. Statistical techniques are the last step in interpreting the results of an experiment; they are used to make discoveries (hypothesis testing), and to measure parameters (point estimation). They are also used in the first step - experiment and analysis design. Banff Challenge 2 asks participants to test their methods of discovering hidden signals in simulated datasets and of measuring the properties of these signals. The Challenge problems are described, and the performances of the submitted entries is summarized, for datasets with and without simulated signals present.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lambda baryon production in neutrino-nucleus interactions and light signals reconstruction in the Short-Baseline Near Detector

The field of neutrino physics is nowadays entering the era of precision measurements, with new detectors capable of capturing neutrino interactions with unprecedented detail and high intensity neutrino beams. Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPCs) have become one of the main neutrino detection technologies, providing excellent imaging capabilities and particle identification. The Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND) at Fermilab is a LArTPC experiment designed to capture neutrinos from the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB). Its proximity to the beam target (110\,m) and large size (112\,ton) enable the recording of millions of neutrino interactions annually. SBND provides the highest statistics worldwide for neutrino-argon cross-section measurements, facilitating the study of rare channels like Cabibbo-suppressed quasielastic hyperon production. Specifically, this thesis focuses on neutral $\Lambda$ baryon production for which only tens of events have been observed up to date. Our work introduces a novel selection strategy leveraging LArTPC imaging capabilities to identify the distinctive decay signatures of $\Lambda$ baryons, enhancing sensitivity to this channel. Besides being a very mature technology, LArTPCs are an evolving technology. Part of the focus of the new developments lies in harnessing the potential of scintillation light signals. The Photon Detection System (PDS) in SBND has been designed to provide an efficient detection of the scintillation light, representing a major R\&D opportunity in the LArTPC community. Its design provides a high and more uniform light yield, an excellent timing resolution and an independent 3D reconstruction of the events, including the drift coordinate, using exclusively the light signals. This work presents the first comprehensive study of the SBND PDS capabilities. The new developments in the simulation and reconstruction of the light signals in SBND are presented. The whole chain is applied to accurately tag neutrino events through timing information, with a predicted resolution $\mathcal{O}$(2\,ns), and ultimately retrieve the pulse structure of the BNB.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A statistical model to predict ignition probability

Ignition capability is a critical design constraint for aeronautical gas turbines. However the current trend toward overall lean burn is detrimental to the engine ignition and relight and the ignition system must be adapted to ensure a fast and reliable light-round in all circumstances. As ignition is a stochastic phenomenon, the optimization of an ignition system requires to build ignition probability maps, which is difficult and costly with either experiment or numerical simulation as both require many tests. Here, this work proposes a model to predict the ignition probability map, knowing only flow statistics in non-reacting conditions, i.e., with only one test. The originality of the model is to construct statistics of the flame kernel trajectory, which are then combined with local flow indicators to evaluate the ignition probability at the considered sparking location. Application to a swirled burner operated in premixed, non-premixed and spray combustion modes illustrates the model concepts and demonstrates its ability to recover the experimental ignition map with good accuracy.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Data Assimilation - Advances and Applications

This presentation provides an overview of data assimilation (model calibration) for complex computer experiments. Calibration refers to the process of probabilistically constraining uncertain physics/engineering model inputs to be consistent with observed experimental data. An initial probability distribution for these parameters is updated using the experimental information. Utilization of surrogate models and empirical adjustment for model form error in code calibration form the basis for the statistical methodology considered. The role of probabilistic code calibration in supporting code validation is discussed. Incorporation of model form uncertainty in rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) analyses is also addressed. Design criteria used within a batch sequential design algorithm are introduced for efficiently achieving predictive maturity and improved code calibration. Predictive maturity refers to obtaining stable predictive inference with calibrated computer codes. These approaches allow for augmentation of initial experiment designs for collecting new physical data. A standard framework for data assimilation is presented and techniques for updating the posterior distribution of the state variables based on particle filtering and the ensemble Kalman filter are introduced.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗