Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “statistical thermodynamics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Cloud Properties Observed by MODIS: Preliminary Level-3 Results from the Collection 5 Reprocessing

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was developed by NASA and launched onboard the Terra spacecraft on December 18, 1999 and Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002. It achieved its final orbit and began Earth observations on February 24, 2000 for Terra and June 24, 2002 for Aqua. A comprehensive set of operational algorithms for the retrieval of cloud physical and optical properties (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path, thermodynamic phase) have recently been updated and are being used in the new "Collection 5" processing stream being produced by the MODIS Adaptive Processing System (MODAPS) at NASA GSFC. All Terra and Aqua data are undergoing Collection 5 reprocessing with an expected completion date by the end of 2006. The archived products from these algorithms include 1 km pixel-level (Level-2) and global gridded Level-3 products. The cloud products have applications in climate change studies, climate modeling, numerical weather prediction, as well as fundamental atmospheric research. In this talk, we will summarize the available Level-3 cloud properties and their associated statistical data sets, and show preliminary Terra and Aqua results from the available Collection 5 reprocessing effort. Anticipated results include the latitudinal distribution of cloud optical and radiative properties for both liquid water and ice clouds, as well as joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and effective radius for selected geographical locations around the world.

King, Michael D.↗

Vector representation of trade cumulus thermodynamic fluxes

A tephigram of BOMEX averaged thermodynamic flux vectors, developed from two tradewind budgets, is presented. The parametric model, which is utilized to represent the fluxes in the tradewind layer of the product as a mass flux and a cloud-environment difference, is examined. A table of mean structure and fluxes of a dataset for the BOMEX ship array, and the Bowen ratio and convective mass flux for a nonmixing and a cloud-top mixing model is provided. The fluxes which are displayed in a simple vector format, using the saturation point notation of Betts (1982) reveal a coupling of fluxes and the relationship between Bowen ratio and height. It is concluded that with good tradewind budget data about the statistics of cloud mixing and radiative-convective coupling can be expressed.

Betts, A. K.↗

Statistical relation between monthly mean precipitable water and surface-level humidity over global oceans

Monthly summaries of atmospheric soundings taken over 17 years from 49 midocean stations at small islands and weather ships distributed over major oceans are examined. Over tropical oceans, precipitable water is found to be a better predictor of surface-level humidity than surface-level air temperature. A statistical relation in the form of a polynomial is derived; from this relation, the monthly-mean, surface-level mixing ratio can be computed from monthly-mean precipitable water. The root-mean-square differences between the measured and derived values were found to be less than 8 x 10 to the -4th over most ocean areas. Such a relation is useful in deriving large-scale evaporation and latent heat flux data from the ocean, using spaceborne observations. The temporal and spatial variabilities of data deviations from this relation are examined. This relation is found to be applicable to all major ocean basins and can be used to monitor interannual variability. Boundary-layer thermodynamics of different air masses are suggested as an explanation of some characteristics of this relation.

Liu, W. T.↗

The Relationships Between the Trends of Mean and Extreme Precipitation

This study provides a better understanding of the relationships between the trends of mean and extreme precipitation in two observed precipitation data sets: the Climate Prediction Center Unified daily precipitation data set and the Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) pentad data set. The study employs three kinds of definitions of extreme precipitation: (1) percentile, (2) standard deviation and (3) generalize extreme value (GEV) distribution analysis for extreme events based on local statistics. Relationship between trends in the mean and extreme precipitation is identified with a novel metric, i.e. area aggregated matching ratio (AAMR) computed on regional and global scales. Generally, more (less) extreme events are likely to occur in regions with a positive (negative) mean trend. The match between the mean and extreme trends deteriorates for increasingly heavy precipitation events. The AAMR is higher in regions with negative mean trends than in regions with positive mean trends, suggesting a higher likelihood of severe dry events, compared with heavy rain events in a warming climate. AAMR is found to be higher in tropics and oceans than in the extratropics and land regions, reflecting a higher degree of randomness and more important dynamical rather than thermodynamical contributions of extreme events in the latter regions.

global warming↗

The chromospheric structure of the cool giant star g Herculis

Non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (LTE) calculations of semiempirical chromospheric models are presented for 30 g Her (M6 III). This star is one of the coolest (T(sub eff) = 3250 K) SRb (semiregular) variable stars and has a mass perhaps as great as 4 solar mass. Chromospheric features we have observed in its spectrum include Mg II h and k; C II) UV0.01, which is sensitive to electron density; Mg I lambda 2852; Ca II H, K, and IRT; Ca I lambda 4227 and lambda 6573; Al II) UV 1; and H alpha. We pay special attention to fitting the C II intersystem lines and the Mg II resonance lines but use all the other features as constraints to some extent. The equations of radiative transfer and statistical equilibrium are solved self-consistently for H I, H(-), H2, He I, C I, C II, Na I, Mg I, Mg II, Al I, Al II, Ca I, and Ca II with the equivalent two-level technique. To simplify these calculations, a one-dimensional hydrostatic, plane-parallel atmosphere is assumed. We investigate 10 separate 'classical' chromospheric models, differing most importantly in total mass column density above the temperature minimum. Synthetic spectra from these models fit some but not all of the observations. These comparisons are discussed in detail. However, we find that no single-component classical model in hydrostatic equilibrium is able to reproduce both the Mg II line profiles and the relative strengths of the CII) lines. In all these models, chromospheric emission features are formed relatively close to the star (approximately less than 0.05 R(sub *). The circumstellar environment has a thick, cool component overlying the Mg II emission region, which is relatively static and very turbulent. Finally, we find that thermalization in the Mg II h and k lines in the coolest giant stars is controlled by continuum absorption from Ca I 4p 4p3 P0 bound-free opacity and not collisional de-excitation as is the case for warmer K giants.

Luttermoser, Donald G.↗

Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Combined kinematic and thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich measurements from BOSS CMASS and LOWZ halos

The scattering of cosmic microwave background (CMB) photons off the free-electron gas in galaxies and clusters leaves detectable imprints on high resolution CMB maps: the thermal and kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effects (tSZ and kSZ respectively). We use combined microwave maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope DR5 and Planck in combination with the CMASS (mean redshifthzi¼0.55and host halo masshMviri¼3×1013M⊙) and LOWZ (hzi¼0.31,hMviri¼5×1013M⊙) galaxy catalogs from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS DR10 and DR12), to study the gas associated with these galaxy groups. Using individual reconstructed velocities, we perform a stacking analysis and reject the no-kSZ hypothes is at 6.5σ, the highest significance to date. This directly translates into a measurement of the electron number density profile, and thus of the gas density profile. Despite the limited signal to noise, the measurement shows at high significance that the gas density profile is more extended than the dark matter density profile, for any reasonable baryon abundance (formally>90σfor the cosmic baryon abundance). We simultaneously measure the tSZ signal, i.e., the electron thermal pressure profile of the same CMASS objects, and reject theno-tSZ hypothesis at10σ. We combine tSZ and kSZ measurements to estimate the electron temperature to20% precision in several aperture bins, and find it comparable to the virial temperature. In a companion paper, we analyze these measurements to constrain the gas thermodynamics and the properties of feedback inside galaxy groups. We present the corresponding LOWZ measurements in this paper, ruling out a null kSZ (tSZ)signal at 2.9ð13.9Þσ, and leave their interpretation to future work. This paper and the companion paper demonstrate that current CMB experiments can detect and resolve gas profiles in low mass halos and at high redshifts, which are the most sensitive to feedback in galaxy formation and the most difficult to measure any other way. They will be a crucial input to cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, thus improving our understanding of galaxy formation. These precise gas profiles are already sufficient to reduce the main limiting theoretical systematic in galaxy-galaxy lensing: baryonic uncertainties. Future such measurements will thus unleash the statistical power of weak lensing from the Rubin, Euclid and Roman observatories. Our stacking software Thumb Stack is publicly available and directly applicable to future Simons Observatory andCMB-S4 data.

Emmanuel Schaan↗

The NASA/MSFC Global Reference Atmospheric Model: 1999 Version (GRAM-99)

The latest version of Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM-99) is presented and discussed. GRAM-99 uses either (binary) Global Upper Air Climatic Atlas (GUACA) or (ASCII) Global Gridded Upper Air Statistics (GGUAS) CD-ROM data sets, for 0-27 km altitudes. As with earlier versions, GRAM-99 provides complete geographical and altitude coverage for each month of the year. GRAM-99 uses a specially-developed data set, based on Middle Atmosphere Program (MAP) data, for 20-120 km altitudes, and NASA's 1999 version Marshall Engineering Thermosphere (MET-99) model for heights above 90 km. Fairing techniques assure smooth transition in overlap height ranges (20-27 km and 90-120 km). GRAM-99 includes water vapor and 11 other atmospheric constituents (O3, N2O, CO, CH4, CO2, N2, O2, O, A, He and H). A variable-scale perturbation model provides both large-scale (wave) and small-scale (stochastic) deviations from mean values for thermodynamic variables and horizontal and vertical wind components. The small-scale perturbation model includes improvements in representing intermittency ("patchiness"). A major new feature is an option to substitute Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) data for conventional GRAM climatology when a trajectory passes sufficiently near any RRA site. A complete user's guide for running the program, plus sample input and output, is provided. An example is provided for how to incorporate GRAM-99 as subroutines in other programs (e.g., trajectory codes).

Justus, C. G.↗

The utilization of Nimbus-7 SMMR measurements to delineate rainfall over land

Based on previous theoretical calculations, an empirical statistical approach to use satellite multifrequency dual polarized passive microwave data to detect rainfall areas over land was initiated. The addition of information from a lower frequency channel (18.0 or 10.7 GHz) was shown to improve the discrimination of rain from wet ground achieved by using a single frequency dual polarized (37 GHz) channel alone. The algorithm was developed and independently tested using data from the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer. Horizontally and vertically polarized brightness temperature pairs at 37, 18, 10.7 GHz were sampled for raining areas over land (determined from ground base radar), wet ground areas (adjacent and upwind from rain areas determined from radar), and dry land regions (areas where rain had not fallen in a 24h period) over the central and eastern United States. Surface thermodynamic temperatures were both above and below 15 deg C.

Rogers, E.↗

Theoretical Study of Indium Compounds of Interest for Organometallic Chemical Vapor Deposition

The structural. electronic and therinochemical properties of indium compounds which are of interest in halide transport and organometallic chemical vapor deposition processes have been studied by ab initio and statistical mechanics methods. The compounds reported include: indium halides and hydrides (InF, InCl, InCl3, InH, InH2, InH3); indium clusters (In2, In3); methylindium, dimethylindium, and their hydrogen derivatives [In(CH3), In(CH3)H, In(CH3)H2, In(CH3)2, In(CH3)2H]; dimethyl-indium dimer [In2(CH3)4], trimethyl-indium [In(CH3)3]; dehydrogenated methyl, dimethyl and trimethylindium [In(CH3)2CH2, In(CH3)CH2, In(CH2)], trimethylindium adducts with ammonia, trimethylamine and hydrazine [(CH3)3In:NH3, (CH3)3In:N(CH3)3, (CH3)3In:N(H2)N(H2)]; dimethylamino-indium and methylimino-indium [In(CH3)2(NH2), In(CH3)(NH)]; indium nitride and indium nitride dimer (InN, In2N2), indium phosphide, arsenide and antimonide ([InP, InAs, InSb). The predicted electronic properties are based on density functional theory calculations; the calculated thermodynamic properties are reported following the format of the JANAF (Joint Army, Navy, NASA, Air Force) Tables. Equilibrium compositions at two temperatures (298 and 1000 K) have been analyzed for groups of competing simultaneous reactions.

Cardelino, B. H.↗

A Characterization of the Terrestrial Environment of Kodiak Island, Alaska for the Design, Development and Operation of Launch Vehicles

A quantitative characterization of the terrestrial environment is an important component in the success of a launch vehicle program. Environmental factors such as winds, atmospheric thermodynamics, precipitation, fog, and cloud characteristics are among many parameters that must be accurately defined for flight success. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently coordinating weather support and performing analysis for the launch of a NASA payload from a new facility located at Kodiak Island, Alaska in late 2001 (NASA, 1999). Following the first launch from the Kodiak Launch Complex, an Air Force intercontinental ballistic missile on November 5, 1999, the site's developer, the Alaska Aerospace Development Corporation (AADC), is hoping to acquire a sizable share of the many launches that will occur over the next decade. One such customer is NASA, which is planning to launch the Vegetation Canopy Lidar satellite aboard an Athena I rocket, the first planned mission to low earth orbit from the new facility. To support this launch, a statistical model of the atmospheric and surface environment for Kodiak Island, AK has been produced from rawinsonde and surface-based meteorological observations for use as an input to future launch vehicle design and/or operations. In this study, the creation of a "reference atmosphere" from rawinsonde observations is described along with comparisons between the reference atmosphere and existing model representations for Kodiak. Meteorological conditions that might result in a delay on launch day (cloud cover, visibility, precipitation, etc.) are also explored and described through probabilities of launch by month and hour of day. This atmospheric "mission analysis" is also useful during the early stages of a vehicle program, when consideration of the climatic characteristics of a location can be factored into vehicle designs. To be most beneficial, terrestrial environment definitions should a) be available at the inception of the program and based on the desired operational performance of the launch vehicle, b) be issued under the signature of the program manager and be part of the controlled program definition and requirements documentation, and c) specify the terrestrial environment for all phases of activity including prelaunch, launch, ascent, on-orbit, decent, and landing. Since the beginning of the space era, NASA has utilized some of the most detailed assessments of the terrestrial climatic environment in design, development, and operations of both expendable and reusable launch vehicles.

Rawlins, Michael A.↗

Ising model of cardiac thin filament activation with nearest-neighbor cooperative interactions

We have developed a model of cardiac thin filament activation using an Ising model approach from equilibrium statistical physics. This model explicitly represents nearest-neighbor interactions between 26 troponin/tropomyosin units along a one-dimensional array that represents the cardiac thin filament. With transition rates chosen to match experimental data, the results show that the resulting force-pCa (F-pCa) relations are similar to Hill functions with asymmetries, as seen in experimental data. Specifically, Hill plots showing (log(F/(1-F)) vs. log [Ca]) reveal a steeper slope below the half activation point (Ca(50)) compared with above. Parameter variation studies show interplay of parameters that affect the apparent cooperativity and asymmetry in the F-pCa relations. The model also predicts that Ca binding is uncooperative for low [Ca], becomes steeper near Ca(50), and becomes uncooperative again at higher [Ca]. The steepness near Ca(50) mirrors the steep F-pCa as a result of thermodynamic considerations. The model also predicts that the correlation between troponin/tropomyosin units along the one-dimensional array quickly decays at high and low [Ca], but near Ca(50), high correlation occurs across the whole array. This work provides a simple model that can account for the steepness and shape of F-pCa relations that other models fail to reproduce.

Evaluation Studies↗

Evaluation of the MODIS Collection 6 Multilayer Cloud Detection Algorithm Through Comparisons with Cloudsat Cloud Profiling Radar and CALIPSO CALIOP Products

Since multilayer cloud scenes are common in the atmosphere and can be an important source of uncertainty in passive satellite sensor cloud retrievals, the MODIS MOD06 and MYD06 standard cloud optical property products include a multilayer cloud detection algorithm to assist with data quality assessment. This paper presents an evaluation of the Aqua MODIS MYD06 Collection 6 multilayer cloud detection algorithm through comparisons with active Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) products that have the ability to provide cloud vertical distributions and directly classify multilayer cloud scenes and layer properties. To compare active sensor products with an imager such as MODIS, it is first necessary to define multilayer clouds in the context of their radiative impact on cloud retrievals. Three main parameters have thus been considered in this evaluation: (1) the maximum separation distance between two cloud layers, (2) the thermodynamic phase of those layers and (3) the upper-layer cloud optical thickness. The impact of including the Pavolonis–Heidinger multilayer cloud detection algorithm, introduced in Collection 6, to assist with multilayer cloud detection has also been assessed. For the year 2008, the MYD06 C6 multilayer cloud detection algorithm identifies roughly 20% of all cloudy pixels as multilayer (decreasing to about 13% if the Pavolonis–Heidinger algorithm output is not used). Evaluation against the merged CPR and CALIOP2B-CLDCLASS-lidar product shows that the MODIS multilayer detection results are quite sensitive to how multilayer clouds are defined in the radar and lidar product and that the algorithm performs better when the optical thickness of the upper cloud layer is greater than about 1.2 with a minimum layer separation distance of 1 km. Finally, we find that filtering the MYD06 cloud optical properties retrievals using the multilayer cloud flag improves aggregated statistics, particularly for ice cloud effective radius.

MODIS↗

Combining New Satellite Tools and Models to Examine Role of Mesoscale Interactions in Formation and Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

The objective of this research is to start filling the mesoscale gap to improve understanding and probability forecasts of formation and intensity variations of tropical cyclones. Sampling by aircraft equipped to measure mesoscale processes is expensive, thus confined in place and time. Hence we turn to satellite products. This paper reports preliminary results of a tropical cyclone genesis and early intensification study. We explore the role of mesoscale processes using a combination of products from TRMM, QuikSCAT, AMSU, also SSM/I, geosynchronous and model output. Major emphasis is on the role of merging mesoscale vortices. These initially form in midlevel stratiform cloud. When they form in regions of lowered Rossby radius of deformation (strong background vorticity) the mesoscale vortices can last long enough to interact and merge, with the weaker vortex losing vorticity to the stronger, which can then extend down to the surface. In an earlier cyclongenesis case (Oliver 1993) off Australia, intense deep convection occurred when the stronger vortex reached the surface; this vortex became the storm center while the weaker vortex was sheared out as the major rainband. In our study of Atlantic tropical cyclones originating from African waves, we use QuikSCAT to examine surface winds in the African monsoon trough and in the vortices which move westward off the coast, which may or may not undergo genesis (defined by NHC as reaching TD, or tropical depression, with a west wind to the south of the surface low). We use AMSU mainly to examine development of warm cores. TRMM passive microwave TMI is used with SSM/I to look at the rain structure, which often indicates eye formation, and to look at the ice scattering signatures of deep convection. The TRMM precipitation radar, PR, when available, gives precipitation cross sections. So far we have detailed studies of two African-origin cyclones, one which became severe hurricane Floyd 1999, and the other reached TD2 in June 2000 and then died out. The atmosphere off West African is dry and stable. It becomes less so between June and September, as the SST and convection heat up. QuikSCAT shows the African monsoon trough and shear zone extend westward over the ocean to nearly 30 degrees West. The evidence is strong that the two cyclones had in common multiple midlevel mergers, which extended to the surface keeping the surface vortex strong. These continued until both systems were designated TD's by NHC. In the June 2000 case, the main reason for failure was the lower SST and dry, stable atmosphere. This is shown by the comparison of the equivalent potential temperature maps and profiles with those from pre-Floyd. In the vortex which became Floyd, QuikSCAT shows continuous importation of high theta e (warm, moist) air from the south. From September 2-8, this air flowed around the vortex center, building up a high theta-e pool to the north. Then late on September 9, a 100-km wide jet of high theta-e air penetrated the vortex core, a major convective burst' was observed, and an intensifying, more elevated warm core was seen on AMSU. Rapid pressure fall and wind intensification were underway by 0000 UTC on September 10. Floyd became a Hurricane at 1200 UTC on Sept 10, 1999, with successive convective bursts running the hurricane thermodynamic engine by intensifying the warm core. TD2 was a strong African vortex, sustained by moderate convection (up to about 12.5 km) offshore of Africa. It peaked on June 23, showing an apparent "eye" on passive microwave composites. However, it could not assemble the ingredients for a convective burst. Thus it failed to get the thermodynamic hurricane engine going before it moved too far west of the region of lowered Rossby radius. By June 26, cloud systems were dying out. On June 25, a surface vortex was no longer seen on QuikSCAT, although one continued above the surface on model profiles until June 27. One of our main findings so far is showing the role of the mesoscale vortex interactions in sustaining some African vortices far out in to the mid Atlantic, where under adequate thermal/moisture conditions the hurricane heat engine can sometimes be started. We are working on similar studies of Cindy and Irene 1999. Cindy illustrates a case of wind shear working against an early-stage hurricane heat engine, while Irene formed from a Caribbean wave. An enormous value of combinations of satellite tools is that tropical cyclones can be studied in all parts of the global oceans where they occur. Detailed studies like ours are labor intensive but many statistical studies can be based on physical postulates developed. There are other new tools such as MODIS on TERRA of the Earth Observing System (EOS) which can be used to study the microphysics of tropical cyclones world wide, in particular to investigate the presence of mixed phase and the impact of atmospheric aerosols on the hydrometeor structure and rainfall from tropical cyclones.

Simpson, Joanne↗

Ten Years of Cloud Optical and Microphysical Retrievals from MODIS

The MODIS cloud optical properties algorithm (MOD06/MYD06 for Terra and Aqua MODIS, respectively) has undergone extensive improvements and enhancements since the launch of Terra. These changes have included: improvements in the cloud thermodynamic phase algorithm; substantial changes in the ice cloud light scattering look up tables (LUTs); a clear-sky restoral algorithm for flagging heavy aerosol and sunglint; greatly improved spectral surface albedo maps, including the spectral albedo of snow by ecosystem; inclusion of pixel-level uncertainty estimates for cloud optical thickness, effective radius, and water path derived for three error sources that includes the sensitivity of the retrievals to solar and viewing geometries. To improve overall retrieval quality, we have also implemented cloud edge removal and partly cloudy detection (using MOD35 cloud mask 250m tests), added a supplementary cloud optical thickness and effective radius algorithm over snow and sea ice surfaces and over the ocean, which enables comparison with the "standard" 2.1 11m effective radius retrieval, and added a multi-layer cloud detection algorithm. We will discuss the status of the MOD06 algorithm and show examples of pixellevel (Level-2) cloud retrievals for selected data granules, as well as gridded (Level-3) statistics, notably monthly means and histograms (lD and 2D, with the latter giving correlations between cloud optical thickness and effective radius, and other cloud product pairs).

Platnick, Steven↗

Full Aerothermal Characterization of the 6- by 9-Foot Icing Research Tunnel (2019 Test)

A full aerothermal characterization of the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) was completed in August 2019. A mandatory maintenance period required the test entry to be separated into two phases: the first occurring in April 2019 and the second in August 2019. The hardware used during this test entry consisted of the 6-foot quick-check rake, 6-foot traversing rake, RTD array, and hot-wire rake. The 6-foot quick check rake collects static pressure, total pressure, total temperature, and flow angularity data along the centerline of the test section. The data from the 6-foot quick-check rake were used to generate test section calibration relationships for total and static pressure as well as implement statistical process control. The 6-foot traversing rake collects flow uniformity data across the test section for various flow parameters, such as static pressure, total pressure, and flow angularity. Total temperature flow uniformity data is mapped by the RTD array and is used to generate the test section calibration relationship for total temperature. The hot-wire rake measures turbulence intensity at three lateral locations and characterizes airspeed unsteadiness in the test section. The test entry resulted in updated calibration relationships and a full characterization of test section flow quality and flow uniformity in the IRT.

Wind↗

Cosmic Complexity

What explains the extraordinary complexity of the observed universe, on all scales from quarks to the accelerating universe? My favorite explanation (which I certainty did not invent) ls that the fundamental laws of physics produce natural instability, energy flows, and chaos. Some call the result the Life Force, some note that the Earth is a living system itself (Gaia, a "tough bitch" according to Margulis), and some conclude that the observed complexity requires a supernatural explanation (of which we have many). But my dad was a statistician (of dairy cows) and he told me about cells and genes and evolution and chance when I was very small. So a scientist must look for me explanation of how nature's laws and statistics brought us into conscious existence. And how is that seemll"!gly Improbable events are actually happening a!1 the time? Well, the physicists have countless examples of natural instability, in which energy is released to power change from simplicity to complexity. One of the most common to see is that cooling water vapor below the freezing point produces snowflakes, no two alike, and all complex and beautiful. We see it often so we are not amazed. But physlc!sts have observed so many kinds of these changes from one structure to another (we call them phase transitions) that the Nobel Prize in 1992 could be awarded for understanding the mathematics of their common features. Now for a few examples of how the laws of nature produce the instabilities that lead to our own existence. First, the Big Bang (what an insufficient name!) apparently came from an instability, in which the "false vacuum" eventually decayed into the ordinary vacuum we have today, plus the most fundamental particles we know, the quarks and leptons. So the universe as a whole started with an instability. Then, a great expansion and cooling happened, and the loose quarks, finding themselves unstable too, bound themselves together into today's less elementary particles like protons and neutrons, liberating a little energy and creating complexity. Then, the expanding universe cooled some more, and neutrons and protons, no longer kept apart by immense temperatures, found themselves unstable and formed helium nuclei. Then, a little more cooling, and atomic nuclei and electrons were no longer kept apart, and the universe became transparent. Then a little more cooling, and the next instability began: gravitation pulled matter together across cosmic distances to form stars and galaxies. This instability is described as a "negative heat capadty" in which extracting energy from a gravitating system makes it hotter -- clearly the 2nd law of thermodynamics does not apply here! (This is the physicist's part of the answer to e e cummings' question: what is the wonder that's keeping the stars apart?) Then, the next instability is that hydrogen and helium nuclei can fuse together to release energy and make stars burn for billions of years. And then at the end of the fuel source, stars become unstable and explode and liberate the chemical elements back into space. And because of that, on planets like Earth, sustained energy flows support the development of additional instabilities and all kinds of complex patterns. Gravitational instability pulls the densest materials into the core of the Earth, leaving a thin skin of water and air, and makes the interior churn incessantly as heat flows outwards. And the heat from the sun, received mostly near the equator and flowing towards the poles, supports the complex atmospheric and oceanic circulations. And because or that, the physical Earth is full of natural chemical laboratories, concentrating elements here, mixing them there, raising and lowering temperatures, ceaselessly experimenting with uncountable events where new instabilities can arise. At least one of them was the new experiment called life. Now that we know that there are at least as many planets as there are stars, it is hard to imagine that nature's ceasess experimentation would not be able to produce life elsewhere -- but we don't know for sure. And life went on to cause new Instabilities, constantly evolving, with living things in an extraordinary range of environments, changing the global environment, with boom-and-bust cycles. with predators for every kInd of prey, with criminals for every possible crime, with governments to prevent them, and instabilities of the governments themselves. One of the instabilities Is that humans demand new weapons and new products of all sort, leading to serious investments in science and technology. So the natural/human world of competition and combat is structured to lead to advanced weaponry and cell phones. So here we are In 2012, with people writing essays and wondering whether their descendents will be artificial life forms travelling back into space. And, pondering what are the origins of those forces of nature that give rise to everything. Verllnde has argued that gravitation, the one force that has so far resisted our efforts at a Quantum description, is not even a fundamental force, but is itself it a statistical force, like osmosis. What an amazing turn of events! But after all I've just said, I should not be surprised a bit.

Mather, John C.↗

A Nowcasting Approach for Low Earth Orbit Hyperspectral Infrared Soundings Within the Convective Environment

Low Earth orbit (LEO) hyper-spectral infrared (IR) sounders have significant yet untapped potential for characterizing thermodynamic environments of convective initiation and ongoing convection. While LEO soundings are of value to weather forecasters, the temporal resolution needed to resolve the rapidly evolving thermodynamics of the convective environment is limited. We have developed a novel nowcasting methodology to extend snapshots of LEO soundings forward in time up to six hours to create a product available within National Weather Service systems for user assessment. Our methodology is based on parcel forward-trajectory calculations from the satellite observing time to generate future soundings of temperature (T) and specific humidity (q) at regularly gridded intervals in space and time. The soundings are based on NOAA-Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) retrievals from the Suomi NPP and NOAA-20 satellite platforms. The tendencies of derived convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) are evaluated against gridded, hourly accumulated rainfall obtained from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) observations for 24 hand-selected cases over the Contiguous United States. Areas with forecast increases in CAPE (reduced CIN) are shown to be associated with areas of precipitation. The increases in CAPE and decreases in CIN are largest for areas that have the heaviest precipitation and are statistically significant compared to areas without precipitation. These results imply that adiabatic parcel advection of LEO satellite sounding snapshots forward in time are capable of identifying convective initiation over an expanded temporal scale compared to soundings used only during the LEO satellite overpass time.

North America↗

The NASA MSFC Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model-2007 Version

Reference or standard atmospheric models have long been used for design and mission planning of various aerospace systems. The NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) was developed in response to the need for a design reference atmosphere that provides complete global geographical variability, and complete altitude coverage (surface to orbital altitudes) as well as complete seasonal and monthly variability of the thermodynamic variables and wind components. A unique feature of GRAM is that, addition to providing the geographical, height, and monthly variation of the mean atmospheric state, it includes the ability to simulate spatial and temporal perturbations in these atmospheric parameters (e.g. fluctuations due to turbulence and other atmospheric perturbation phenomena). A summary comparing GRAM features to characteristics and features of other reference or standard atmospheric models, can be found Guide to Reference and Standard Atmosphere Models. The original GRAM has undergone a series of improvements over the years with recent additions and changes. The software program is called Earth-GRAM2007 to distinguish it from similar programs for other bodies (e.g. Mars, Venus, Neptune, and Titan). However, in order to make this Technical Memorandum (TM) more readable, the software will be referred to simply as GRAM07 or GRAM unless additional clarity is needed. Section 1 provides an overview of the basic features of GRAM07 including the newly added features. Section 2 provides a more detailed description of GRAM07 and how the model output generated. Section 3 presents sample results. Appendices A and B describe the Global Upper Air Climatic Atlas (GUACA) data and the Global Gridded Air Statistics (GGUAS) database. Appendix C provides instructions for compiling and running GRAM07. Appendix D gives a description of the required NAMELIST format input. Appendix E gives sample output. Appendix F provides a list of available parameters to enable the user to generate special output. Appendix G gives an example and guidance on incorporating GRAM07 as a subroutine in other programs such as trajectory codes or orbital propagation routines.

Leslie, F.W.↗