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DOE OSTI2023

Evolution of titanium particle combustion in potassium perchlorate and air

Understanding titanium particle combustion processes is critical not only for characterizing existing pyrotechnic systems but also for creating new igniter designs. In order to characterize titanium particle combustion processes, morphologies, and temperatures, simultaneous spatially-resolved electric field holography and imaging pyrometry techniques were used to capture post-ignition data at up to 7 kHz. Due to the phase and thermal distortions present in the combustion cloud, traditional digital in-line holography techniques fail to capture accurate data. Here in this work, electric field holography techniques are used in order to cancel distortions and capture the three-dimensional spatial locations and diameters of the particles. In order to estimate the projected surface temperatures of the titanium particles, an imaging pyrometry method that ratios emission at 750 and 850 nm is utilized. Using these diagnostics, joint statistics are collected for particle size, morphology, velocity, and temperature. Results show that, early in the combustion process, the titanium particles are primarily oxidized by potassium perchlorate inside the igniter cup, resulting in projected surface temperatures near 3000 K. Later in the process, the particles interact with ambient air, resulting in lower surface temperatures around 2400 K and the formation of flame zones. These results are consistent with adiabatic flame temperature predictions as well as particle morphology observations of a titanium core with a TiO 2 surface. Late stage particle expansion, star fragmentation, and molten droplet breakup events are also observed using the time-resolved morphology and temperature diagnostics. These results illustrate the different stages of titanium particle combustion in pyrotechnic environments, which can be used to inform improvements in next-generation igniters.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Binomial Stochastic Framework for Efficiently Modeling Discrete Statistics of Convective Populations

Abstract Understanding the coupling between convective clouds and the general circulation, as well as addressing the gray zone problem in convective parameterization, requires insight into the genesis and maintenance of spatial patterns in cumulus cloud populations. In this study, a simple toy model for recreating populations of interacting convective objects as distributed over a two‐dimensional Eulerian grid is formulated to this purpose. Key elements at the foundation of the model include i) a fully discrete formulation for capturing discrete behavior in convective properties at small population sample sizes, ii) object age‐dependence for representing life‐cycle effects, and iii) a prognostic number budget allowing for object interactions and co‐existence of multiple species. A primary goal is to optimize the computational efficiency of this system. To this purpose the object birth rate is represented stochastically through a spatially aware Bernoulli process. The same binomial stochastic operator is applied to horizontal advection of objects, conserving discreteness in object number. The applicability to atmospheric convection as well as behavior implied by the formulation is assessed. Various simple applications of the BiOMi model (Binomial Objects on Microgrids) are explored, suggesting that important convective behavior can be captured at low computational cost. This includes i) subsampling effects and associated powerlaw scaling in the convective gray zone, ii) stochastic predator‐prey behavior, iii) the downscale turbulent energy cascade, and iv) simple forms of spatial organization and convective memory. Consequences and opportunities for convective parameterization in next‐generation weather and climate models are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2003

Preliminary Optical And Electric Field Pulse Statistics From Storm Overflights During The Altus Cumulus Electrification Study

The Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) was conducted during the month of August, 2002 in an area near Key West, Florida. One of the goals of this uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) study was to collect high resolution optical pulse and electric field data from thunderstorms. During the month long campaign, we acquired 5294 lightning generated optical pulses with associated electric field changes. Most of these observations were made while close to the top of the storms. We found filtered mean and median 10-10% optical pulse widths of 875 and 830 microns respectively while the 50-50% mean and median optical pulse widths are 422 and 365 microns respectively. These values are similar to previous results as are the 10-90% mean and median rise times of 327 and 265 microns. The peak electrical to optical pulse delay mean and median were 209 and 145 microns which is longer than one would expect from theoretical results. The results of the pulse analysis will contribute to further validation of the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) satellites. Pre-launch estimates of the flash detection efficiency were based on a small sample of optical pulse measurements associated with less than 350 lightning discharges collected by NASA U-2 aircraft in the early 1980s. Preliminary analyses of the ACES measurements show that we have greatly increased the number of optical pulses available for validation of the LIS and other orbital lightning optical sensors. Since the Altus was often close to the cloud tops, many of the optical pulses are from low-energy pulses. From these low-energy pulses, we can determine the fraction of optical lightning pulses below the thresholds of LIS, OTD, and any future satellite-based optical sensors such as the geostationary Lightning Mapping Sensor.

Mach, D. A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Efficient Bayesian Approach to Learning Droplet Collision Kernels: Proof of Concept Using “Cloudy,” a New n -Moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme

The small-scale microphysical processes governing the formation of precipitation particles cannot be resolved explicitly by cloud resolving and climate models. Instead, they are represented by microphysics schemes that are based on a combination of theoretical knowledge, statistical assumptions, and fitting to data (“tuning”). Historically, tuning was done in an ad hoc fashion, leading to parameter choices that are not explainable or repeatable. Recent work has treated it as an inverse problem that can be solved by Bayesian inference. The posterior distribution of the parameters given the data—the solution of Bayesian inference—is found through computationally expensive sampling methods, which require over $\mathcal{O}$(10 5 ) evaluations of the forward model; this is prohibitive for many models. We present a proof of concept of Bayesian learning applied to a new bulk microphysics scheme named “Cloudy,” using the recently developed Calibrate-Emulate-Sample (CES) algorithm. Cloudy models collision-coalescence and collisional breakup of cloud droplets with an adjustable number of prognostic moments and with easily modifiable assumptions for the cloud droplet mass distribution and the collision kernel. The CES algorithm uses machine learning tools to accelerate Bayesian inference by reducing the number of forward evaluations needed to $\mathcal{O}$(10 2 ). It also exhibits a smoothing effect when forward evaluations are polluted by noise. In a suite of perfect-model experiments, we show that CES enables computationally efficient Bayesian inference of parameters in Cloudy from noisy observations of moments of the droplet mass distribution. In an additional imperfect-model experiment, a collision kernel parameter is successfully learned from output generated by a Lagrangian particle-based microphysics model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

Exploring Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 diversity for Flood inundation mapping using deep learning

Identification of flood water extent from satellite images has historically relied on either synthetic aperture radar (SAR) or multi-spectral (MS) imagery. MS sensors are limited to cloud free conditions, whereas SAR imagery is plagued by noise-like speckle. Prior studies that use combinations of MS and SAR data to overcome individual limitations of these sensors have not fully examined sensitivity of flood mapping performance to different combinations of SAR and MS derived spectral indices or band transformations in color space. This study explores the use of diverse bands of Sentinel 2 (S2) through well-established water indices and Sentinel 1 (S1) derived SAR imagery along with their combinations to assess their capability for generating accurate flood inundation maps. The robustness in performance of S-1 and S-2 band combinations was evaluated using 446 hand labeled flood inundation images spanning across 11 flood events from Sen1Floods11 dataset which are highly diverse in terms of land cover as well as location. A modified K-fold cross validation approach is used to evaluate the performance of 32 combinations of S1 and S2 bands using a fully connected deep convolutional neural network known as U-Net. Our results indicated that usage of elevation information has improved the capability of S1 imagery to produce more accurate flood inundation maps. Compared to a median F1 score of 0.62 when using only S1 bands, the combined use of S1 and elevation information led to an improved median F1 score of 0.73. Water extraction indices based on S2 bands have a statistically significant superior performance in comparison to S1. Among all the band combinations, HSV (Hue, Saturation, Value) transformation of S2 bands provides a median F1 score of 0.9, outperforming the commonly used water spectral indices owing to HSV’s transformation’s superior contrast distinguishing abilities. Additionally, U-Net algorithm was able to learn the relationship between raw S2 based water extraction indices and their corresponding raw S2 bands, but not of HSV owing to relatively complex computation involved in the latter. Results of the paper establishes important benchmarks for the extension of S1 and S2 data-based flood inundation mapping efforts over large spatial extents.

Goutam Konapala↗

NASA NTRS1993

Metal abundances at z = 3.4

Echelle spectroscopy data were taken of the quasar 0000-263 on the 4m telescope at CTIO in Chile. Three nights of red and three nights of blue data were obtained (about four hours data per night). The resolution is typically 0.4 A at 5000 A (lamda/d(lamda) = 12500) and has good signal-to-noise over the wavelength range 4600 A to 8000 A. To keep the statistics manageable the data were not rebinned, although the instrument was stable enough for each night's data on the object to be co-added. Arc spectra taken between each exposure were also co-added within the nights. During profile fitting the model was convolved with a Gaussian whose width was equal to nearby arc lines, so any broadening generated by the co-adding of data will not affect the final results. Since OI and HI have the same ionization potential (13.6 eV), (O/H) is approximately (OI/HI). Unfortunately, in this data only the 1302 A OI transition is visible, and it is blended with HI in the Lyman Alpha forest. However, OI and NI coexist (the ionization potential for NI is 14.5 eV) and so the NI triplet can constrain the redshift and turbulent width of the OI. When a fit was made to the regions containing OI and NI absorption three systems were apparent with similar redshifts and velocity widths. These three systems were fitted with tied redshifts and turbulent widths, while the other lines in the region were fitted as Lyman-Alpha. The saturated Lyman-Alpha profile was then fitted with three components at the same redshifts as these observed lines, with the line widths tied. Finally, metallicity ratios for the individual lines and their totals were calculated and compared to solar values. The results for the separate clouds from low to high redshift and for the total are presented.

Cooke, Andrew↗

DOE OSTI2020

Description of the LASSO Data Bundles Product

The U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility began a pilot project in May 2015 to design a routine, high-resolution modeling capability to complement ARM’s extensive suite of measurements. This modeling capability has evolved into the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) datastream. The datastream, broadly termed data bundles, contains high-resolution model output, input files, observations for evaluation, and skill scores for the simulations. The initial focus of LASSO is on shallow convection at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. The availability of LES simulations with concurrent observations serves many purposes. LES helps bridge the scale gap between DOE ARM observations and models, and the use of routine LES adds value to observations. It provides a self-consistent representation of the atmosphere and a dynamical context for the observations. Further, it elucidates unobservable processes and properties. LASSO generates a simulation library for researchers that enables statistical approaches beyond a single-case mentality. It also provides tools necessary for modelers to reproduce the LES and conduct their own sensitivity experiments. The LASSO library of data bundles is designed to facilitate a wide range of research. For an observationalist, LASSO can help inform instrument remote-sensing retrievals, conduct observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs), and test implications of radar scan strategies or flight paths. For a theoretician, LASSO can help calculate estimates of fluxes and co-variability of values, and test relationships without having to run the model personally. For a modeler, LASSO can help one know ahead of time which days have good forcing, have co-registered observations at high-resolution scales, and have simulation inputs and corresponding outputs to test parameterizations. Further details on the overall LASSO project are available at https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/modeling/lasso.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Sao Paulo Lightning Mapping Array (SP-LMA): Network Assessment and Analyses for Intercomparison Studies and GOES-R Proxy Activities

A 12 station Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) network was deployed during October 2011 in the vicinity of Sao Paulo, Brazil (SP-LMA) to contribute total lightning measurements to an international field campaign [CHUVA - Cloud processes of tHe main precipitation systems in Brazil: A contribUtion to cloud resolVing modeling and to the GPM (GlobAl Precipitation Measurement)]. The SP-LMA was operational from November 2011 through March 2012 during the Vale do Paraiba campaign. Sensor spacing was on the order of 15-30 km, with a network diameter on the order of 40-50km. The SP-LMA provides good 3-D lightning mapping out to 150 km from the network center, with 2-D coverage considerably farther. In addition to supporting CHUVA science/mission objectives, the SP-LMA is supporting the generation of unique proxy data for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), on NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R: scheduled for a 2015 launch). These proxy data will be used to develop and validate operational algorithms so that they will be ready to use on "day1" following the GOES-R launch. As the CHUVA Vale do Paraiba campaign opportunity was formulated, a broad community-based interest developed for a comprehensive Lightning Location System (LLS) intercomparison and assessment study, leading to the participation and/or deployment of eight other ground-based networks and the space-based Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). The SP-LMA data is being intercompared with lightning observations from other deployed lightning networks to advance our understanding of the capabilities/contributions of each of these networks toward GLM proxy and validation activities. This paper addresses the network assessment including noise reduction criteria, detection efficiency estimates, and statistical and climatological (both temporal and spatially) analyses for intercomparison studies and GOES-R proxy activities.

Bailey, J. C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Training and Validation of Spectral Gap Filling Algorithm for Cpf-Ceres Intercalibration

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) Pathfinder (CPF) mission is set to launch an SI-traceable reflective solar (RS) spectrometer aboard the International Space Station to measure Earth-reflected solar radiation with a radiometric uncertainty of 0.3% (k=1). The CPF intercalibration team has devised a cutting-edge methodology to accurately transfer the benchmark CPF calibration reference to the shortwave (SW) channel (200-5000 nm) of the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument. The spectral range of CPF measurements spans from 350-2300 nm, while the CERES SW channel measures the Earth-reflected broadband solar radiances between 200 nm to 5 μm. To conduct precise CPF-CERES intercalibration analysis, the CPF-like spectral radiances outside the CPF spectral range need to be estimated to match the CERES SW spectral range. In response, the team has developed a fast algorithm that leverages spectrally redundant information within the CPF-measured portion through principal component analysis (PCA) and utilizes pre-established spectral correlation relationships among wavelengths to extend the CPF spectrum below 350 nm and above 2300 nm. Our results show that the algorithm achieves excellent accuracy in generating the missing energy in the UV and IR portions. The RMS error in the UV region is less than 4.5x10-3 W/m2/sr/nm, while in the IR region, it is smaller than 8x10-5 W/m2/sr/nm. Our methodology was validated using measured EMIT radiance data, which covers the spectral range from 0.381 μm to 2.493 μm. We employed EMIT radiances within the wavelength range of 0.43 – 2.25 μm to generate radiances for both the shorter wavelength range (0.381 – 0.43 μm) and longer wavelength range (2.25 – 2.493 μm). The generated radiances agree very well with the measured EMIT radiances. The standard deviation in the integrated broadband radiances was about 0.1%, and the bias is less than 0.004% for over 1.5 million EMIT measured samples. These statistics show that the spectral gap filling algorithm is robust and effective in substantially reducing the spectral difference-induced uncertainty in the CPF-CERES intercalibration samples.

Qiguang Yang↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulating cosmological evolution by quantum quench of an atomic Bose-Einstein condensate

In cosmological evolution, it is the homogeneous scalar field (inflaton) that drives the universe to expand isotropically and to generate standard model particles. However, to simulate cosmology, atomic gas research has focused on the dynamics of Bose-Einstein condensates (BEC) with continuously applied forces. In this paper we argue that a complementary approach needs also to be pursued; we thus consider the analog BEC experiments in a nondriven and naturally closed atomic system. We implement this using a BEC in an optical lattice which, after a quench, freely transitions from an unstable to a stable state. Furthermore, this dynamical evolution displays the counterpart “preheating,” “reheating,” and “thermalization” phases of cosmology. Importantly, our studies of these analog processes yield tractable analytic models. Additionally, of great utility to the cold atom community, such understanding elucidates the dynamics of nonadiabatic condensate preparation. Indeed, the dynamical processes discussed here are generic and in future cold atom reequilibration experiments it will be important to observe both the preheating stage, corresponding to a fragmented condensate, and the reheating stage, corresponding to a particle cloud.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1995

Windowed and Wavelet Analysis of Marine Stratocumulus Cloud Inhomogeneity

To improve radiative transfer calculations for inhomogeneous clouds, a consistent means of modeling inhomogeneity is needed. One current method of modeling cloud inhomogeneity is through the use of fractal parameters. This method is based on the supposition that cloud inhomogeneity over a large range of scales is related. An analysis technique named wavelet analysis provides a means of studying the multiscale nature of cloud inhomogeneity. In this paper, the authors discuss the analysis and modeling of cloud inhomogeneity through the use of wavelet analysis. Wavelet analysis as well as other windowed analysis techniques are used to study liquid water path (LWP) measurements obtained during the marine stratocumulus phase of the First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment. Statistics obtained using analysis windows, which are translated to span the LWP dataset, are used to study the local (small scale) properties of the cloud field as well as their time dependence. The LWP data are transformed onto an orthogonal wavelet basis that represents the data as a number of times series. Each of these time series lies within a frequency band and has a mean frequency that is half the frequency of the previous band. Wavelet analysis combined with translated analysis windows reveals that the local standard deviation of each frequency band is correlated with the local standard deviation of the other frequency bands. The ratio between the standard deviation of adjacent frequency bands is 0.9 and remains constant with respect to time. This ratio defined as the variance coupling parameter is applicable to all of the frequency bands studied and appears to be related to the slope of the data's power spectrum. Similar analyses are performed on two cloud inhomogeneity models, which use fractal-based concepts to introduce inhomogeneity into a uniform cloud field. The bounded cascade model does this by iteratively redistributing LWP at each scale using the value of the local mean. This model is reformulated into a wavelet multiresolution framework, thereby presenting a number of variants of the bounded cascade model. One variant introduced in this paper is the 'variance coupled model,' which redistributes LWP using the local standard deviation and the variance coupling parameter. While the bounded cascade model provides an elegant two- parameter model for generating cloud inhomogeneity, the multiresolution framework provides more flexibility at the expense of model complexity. Comparisons are made with the results from the LWP data analysis to demonstrate both the strengths and weaknesses of these models.

Gollmer, Steven M.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Creating User-Friendly Tools for Data Analysis and Visualization in K-12 Classrooms: A Fortran Dinosaur Meets Generation Y

During the summer of 2007, as part of the second year of a NASA-funded project in partnership with Christopher Newport University called SPHERE (Students as Professionals Helping Educators Research the Earth), a group of undergraduate students spent 8 weeks in a research internship at or near NASA Langley Research Center. Three students from this group formed the Clouds group along with a NASA mentor (Chambers), and the brief addition of a local high school student fulfilling a mentorship requirement. The Clouds group was given the task of exploring and analyzing ground-based cloud observations obtained by K-12 students as part of the Students' Cloud Observations On-Line (S'COOL) Project, and the corresponding satellite data. This project began in 1997. The primary analysis tools developed for it were in FORTRAN, a computer language none of the students were familiar with. While they persevered through computer challenges and picky syntax, it eventually became obvious that this was not the most fruitful approach for a project aimed at motivating K-12 students to do their own data analysis. Thus, about halfway through the summer the group shifted its focus to more modern data analysis and visualization tools, namely spreadsheets and Google(tm) Earth. The result of their efforts, so far, is two different Excel spreadsheets and a Google(tm) Earth file. The spreadsheets are set up to allow participating classrooms to paste in a particular dataset of interest, using the standard S'COOL format, and easily perform a variety of analyses and comparisons of the ground cloud observation reports and their correspondence with the satellite data. This includes summarizing cloud occurrence and cloud cover statistics, and comparing cloud cover measurements from the two points of view. A visual classification tool is also provided to compare the cloud levels reported from the two viewpoints. This provides a statistical counterpart to the existing S'COOL data visualization tool, which is used for individual ground-to-satellite correspondences. The Google(tm) Earth file contains a set of placemarks and ground overlays to show participating students the area around their school that the satellite is measuring. This approach will be automated and made interactive by the S'COOL database expert and will also be used to help refine the latitude/longitude location of the participating schools. Once complete, these new data analysis tools will be posted on the S'COOL website for use by the project participants in schools around the US and the world.

Chambers, L. H.↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Transition of High-Resolution NASA MODIS Sea Surface Temperatures into the WRF Environmental Modeling System

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea surface temperature (SST) composite at 2-km resolution that has been implemented in version 3 of the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Environmental Modeling System (EMS). The WRF EMS is a complete, full physics numerical weather prediction package that incorporates dynamical cores from both the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). The installation, configuration, and execution of either the ARW or NMM models is greatly simplified by the WRF EMS to encourage its use by NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and the university community. The WRF EMS is easy to run on most Linux workstations and clusters without the need for compilers. Version 3 of the WRF EMS contains the most recent public release of the WRF-NMM and ARW modeling system (version 3 of the ARW is described in Skamarock et al. 2008), the WRF Pre-processing System (WPS) utilities, and the WRF Post-Processing program. The system is developed and maintained by the NWS National Science Operations Officer Science and Training Resource Coordinator. To initialize the WRF EMS with high-resolution MODIS SSTs, SPoRT developed the composite product consisting of MODIS SSTs over oceans and large lakes with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) filling data over land points. Filling the land points is required due to minor inconsistencies between the WRF land-sea mask and that used to generate the MODIS SST composites. This methodology ensures a continuous field that adequately initializes all appropriate arrays in WRF. MODIS composites covering the Gulf of Mexico, western Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean are generated daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC corresponding to overpass times of the NASA Aqua and Terra polar orbiting satellites. The MODIS SST product is output in gridded binary-1 (GRIB-1) data format for a seamless incorporation into WRF via the WPS utilities. The full-resolution, 1-km MODIS product is sub-sampled to 2-km grid spacing due to limitations in handling very large dimensions in the GRIB-1 data format. The GRIB-1 files are posted online at ftp://ftp.nsstc.org/sstcomp/WRF/, which is directly accessed by the WRF EMS scripts. The MODIS SST composites are also downloaded to the EMS data server, which is accessible by the WRF EMS users and NWS WFOs. The SPoRT MODIS SST composite provides the model with superior detail of the ocean gradients around Florida and surrounding waters, whereas the operational RTG SST typically depicts a relatively smooth field and is not able to capture sharp horizontal gradients in SST. Differences of 2-3 C are common over small horizontal distances, leading to enhanced SST gradients on either side of the Gulf Stream and along the edges of the cooler shelf waters. These sharper gradients can in turn produce atmospheric responses in simulated temperature and wind fields as depicted in LaCasse et al. Differences in atmospheric verification statistics over a several month study were generally small in the vicinity of south Florida; however, the validation of SSTs at specific buoy locations revealed important improvements in the biases and RMS errors, especially in the vicinity of the cooler shelf waters off the east-central Florida coast. A current weakness in the MODIS SST product is the occurrence of occasional discontinuities caused by high latency in SST coverage due to persistent cloud cover. An enhanced method developed by Jedlovec et al. (2009, GHRSST User Symposium) reduces the occurrence of these problems by adding Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer -- EOS (AMSR-E) SST data to the compositing process. Enhanced SST composites are produced over the ocean regions surrounding the Continental U.S. at four times each day corresponding to Terra and Aqua equator crossing times. For a given day and overpass time, both MODInd AMSR-E data from the previous seven days form a collection used in the compositing. At each MODIS pixel, cloud-free SST values from the collection are used to form a weighted average based on their latency (number of days from the current day). In this way, recent SST data are given more weight than older data. One of the primary issues involved in incorporating the AMSR-E microwave data in the composites is the tradeoff between the decreased spatial resolution of the AMSR-E data (25 km) and the increased coverage due to its near all-weather capability. Currently, the AMSR-E is given a weight of 20% compared to MODIS data, thereby preserving the spatial structure observed in the MODIS data. Day-time (night-time) AMSR-E SST data from Aqua are used with both Terra and Aqua MODIS day-time (night-time) SST data sets.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Monte Carlo Approach to Modeling the Breakup of the Space Launch System EM-1 Core Stage with an Integrated Blast and Fragment Catalogue

The Liquid Propellant Fragment Overpressure Acceleration Model (L-FOAM) is a tool developed by Bangham Engineering Incorporated (BEi) that produces a representative debris cloud from an exploding liquid-propellant launch vehicle. Here it is applied to the Core Stage (CS) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS launch vehicle). A combination of Probability Density Functions (PDF) based on empirical data from rocket accidents and applicable tests, as well as SLS specific geometry are combined in a MATLAB script to create unique fragment catalogues each time L-FOAM is run-tailored for a Monte Carlo approach for risk analysis. By accelerating the debris catalogue with the BEi blast model for liquid hydrogen / liquid oxygen explosions, the result is a fully integrated code that models the destruction of the CS at a given point in its trajectory and generates hundreds of individual fragment catalogues with initial imparted velocities. The BEi blast model provides the blast size (radius) and strength (overpressure) as probabilities based on empirical data and anchored with analytical work. The coupling of the L-FOAM catalogue with the BEi blast model is validated with a simulation of the Project PYRO S-IV destruct test. When running a Monte Carlo simulation, L-FOAM can accelerate all catalogues with the same blast (mean blast, 2 σ blast, etc.), or vary the blast size and strength based on their respective probabilities. L-FOAM then propagates these fragments until impact with the earth. Results from L-FOAM include a description of each fragment (dimensions, weight, ballistic coefficient, type and initial location on the rocket), imparted velocity from the blast, and impact data depending on user desired application. LFOAM application is for both near-field (fragment impact to escaping crew capsule) and far-field (fragment ground impact footprint) safety considerations. The user is thus able to use statistics from a Monte Carlo set of L-FOAM catalogues to quantify risk for a multitude of potential CS destruct scenarios. Examples include the effect of warning time on the survivability of an escaping crew capsule or the maximum fragment velocities generated by the ignition of leaking propellants in internal cavities.

Richardson, Erin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Conditions Affecting Global Mesoscale Convective System Occurrence

Abstract The ERA5 environments of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), tracked from satellite observations, are assessed over a 20-yr period. The use of a large set of MCS tracks allows us to robustly test the sensitivity of the results to factors such as region, latitude, and diurnal cycle. We aim to provide novel information on environments of observed MCSs for assessments of global atmospheric models and to improve their ability to simulate MCSs. Statistical analysis of all tracked MCSs is performed in two complementary ways. First, we investigate the environments when an MCS has occurred at different spatial scales before and after MCS formation. Several environmental variables are found to show marked changes before MCS initiation, particularly over land. The vertically integrated moisture flux convergence shows a robust signal across different regions and when considering MCS initiation diurnal cycle. We also found spatial scale dependence of the environments between 200 and 500 km, providing new evidence of a natural length scale for use with MCS parameterization. In the second analysis, the likelihood of MCS occurrence for given environmental conditions is evaluated, by considering all environments and determining the probability of being in an MCS core or shield region. These are compared to analogous non-MCS environments, allowing discrimination between conditions suitable for MCS and non-MCS occurrence. Three environmental variables are found to be useful predictors of MCS occurrence: total column water vapor, midlevel relative humidity, and total column moisture flux convergence. Such relations could be used as trigger conditions for the parameterization of MCSs, thereby strengthening the dependence of the MCS scheme on the environment. Significance Statement Large storm systems called mesoscale convective systems form across Earth. These are collections of thunderstorms, with associated high-level clouds that produce substantial, lighter rainfall and modulate Earth’s energy balance. They produce hazardous weather conditions, such as floods and high winds, and are responsible for a high percentage of rainfall in many regions globally. We investigate the environmental conditions under which they form, so that we can understand the spatial extent of the environment which is important for their formation, and also where and when the effects of these storms might be felt. The novel information generated here should help improve the representation of these storms in weather and climate models, improving the prediction of rainfall, thunderclouds, and high-level clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emulation and detection of physical faults and cyber-attacks on building energy systems through real-time hardware-in-the-loop experiments

The increasing use of remote or mobile access, integrated wearable technologies, data exchange, and cloud-based data analytics in modern smart buildings is steering the building industry towards open communication technologies. The increased connectivity and accessibility could lead to more cyber-attacks in smart buildings. On the other hand, physical faults (e.g., HVAC -heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning faults) may have similar adverse impacts as those from the cyber-attacks on building energy systems, such as occupant discomfort, energy wastage, and equipment downtime. However, current physical behavior-based anomaly detection methods fail to differentiate between cyber-attacks and physical faults in building energy systems. Moreover, the challenge in collecting real-world threat data with ground truth has led researchers to rely on numerical models with user-defined assumptions, which may not accurately reflect real-world conditions due to the lack of in-situ experimental datasets. To address these challenges and gaps, this paper presents a flexible hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed for generating cyber-attack and physical fault datasets and demonstrating threat detection algorithms in a real building automation system (BAS) environment. This testbed combines hardware (i.e., real BAS with local HVAC controllers and a physical network) with software (i.e., high-fidelity models to represent behaviors of building envelope and HVAC energy systems), enabling emulations of realistic threats. Five HIL experiments, including one baseline without any threats, two with physical faults, and two with cyber-attacks, were conducted to generate datasets containing detailed network traffic and system states. A joint classification framework, incorporating a network analyzer and a physical HVAC fault detector, was proposed to automatically detect cyber-physical abnormalities on BAS at both the network and the physical HVAC levels. The network analyzer comprises a conditional random fields (CRF) based command validator and a statistics-based detection strategy. The fault detector employs a weather and schedule-based pattern matching and feature-based principal component analysis (WPM-FPCA) method. Evaluation of the classification using four metrics from the multi-class confusion matrix revealed an average accuracy of 90.2%, recall of 89.7%, precision of 88.5% and F1-score of 89.2%. Finally, these results demonstrate that the proposed joint classification framework can effectively differentiate between specific types of cyber-attacks (e.g., device reinitialization attack, network Denial-of-Service attack) and physical faults (e.g., air handling unit operational fault, cooling coil valve stuck) in real time for improved building energy management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2002

A Downscaling Analysis of the Urban Influence on Rainfall: TRMM Satellite Component AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography

A recent publication by Shepherd et al. (2002) demonstrated the feasibility of using TRMM precipitation radar (PR) estimates to identify precipitation anomalies caused by urbanization. The approach is particularly useful for investigating this global process because TRMM data span large portions of the globe and comprise an extended temporal dataset. Recent literature suggests that urbanized regions of Houston, Texas may be influencing lightning and precipitation formation over and downwind of the city. Possible mechanisms include: (1) enhanced convergence through interactions between the sea breeze, Galveston bay breeze, and urban heat island circulations, (2) enhanced convergence due to increased surface roughness over the city and/or destabilization of the boundary layer by the UHI, or (3) enhanced cloud condensation nuclei due to urban and industrial aerosol sources. In this study, a downscaling analysis of spatial and temporal trends in rainfall around the Houston Area is being conducted. The downscaling analysis concept involves identifying and quantifying urban rainfall anomalies at progressively smaller spatial and temporal scales using the TRMM satellite, ground-based radar, and a dense network of rain gauges. The goal is to test the hypothesis that the Houston urban district and regions in the climatological downwind region of the city exhibit enhanced rainfall amounts relative to the climatological upwind regions. TRMM was launched in 1997 and currently operates in a low-inclination (35 deg), non-sun-synchronous orbit at an altitude of 402 km (350 km prior to August 2001). The satellite analysis follows the methodologies described in Shepherd et al. (2002). Nearly five years of TRMM PR-derived mean monthly rainfall estimates are utilized to produce annual and warm season isohyetal analyses around Houston. Early results indicate that rainfall rates (mm/h) for the entire period are largest within 100 km northeast and east of Houston (e.g. the "hypothesized downwind region"). The mean rainfall rate over the Houston urban center is 30.5% larger than the upwind control region. The mean rainfall rate in the downwind region is 34.4% larger than the upwind region. An analysis of a parameter called the urban rainfall ratio (URR) illustrates that 65% (88%) of the satellite-derived rainfall rates in the downwind (upwind control) region are greater (less) than the mean background rainfall rate of the entire study region. When the data is stratified by summer months from 1998 to 2001 (June-August), even greater influence over and downwind of the urban area is observed in the statistics. This result is consistent with published reports of urban-generated rainfall being more prevalent in the warm season. The research demonstrates that the evolving TRMM satellite climatology is a credible way to detect mesoscale precipitation signatures that may be linked to urbanization. Early results also corroborate recent findings on Houston-induced convection/drainfall anomalies. Burian and Shepherd will report on other aspects of the downscaling analysis in future forums, but early rain gauge results are consistent with the satellite-based observations.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

DOE OSTI2024

RCEMIP-II: mock-Walker simulations as phase II of the radiative–convective equilibrium model intercomparison project

Abstract. The radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) model intercomparison project (RCEMIP) leveraged the simplicity of RCE to focus attention on moist convective processes and their interactions with radiation and circulation across a wide range of model types including cloud-resolving models (CRMs), general circulation models (GCMs), single-column models, global cloud-resolving models, and large-eddy simulations. While several robust results emerged across the spectrum of models that participated in the first phase of RCEMIP (RCEMIP-I), two points that stand out are (1) the strikingly large diversity in simulated climate states and (2) the strong imprint of convective self-aggregation on the climate state. However, the lack of consensus in the structure of self-aggregation and its response to warming is a barrier to understanding. Gaining a deeper understanding of convective aggregation and tropical climate will require reducing the degrees of freedom with which convection can vary. Therefore, we propose phase II of RCEMIP (RCEMIP-II) that utilizes a prescribed sinusoidal sea surface temperature (SST) pattern to provide a constraint on the structure of convection and move one critical step up the model hierarchy. This so-called “mock-Walker” configuration generates features that resemble observed tropical circulations. The specification of the mock-Walker protocol for RCEMIP-II is described, along with example results from one CRM and one GCM. RCEMIP-II will consist of five required simulations: three simulations with the same three mean SSTs as in RCEMIP-I but with an SST gradient and two additional simulations at one of the mean SSTs with different values of the SST gradients. We also test the sensitivity to the imposed SST gradient and the domain size. Under weak SST gradients, unforced self-aggregation emerges across the entire domain, similar to what was found in RCEMIP. As the SST gradient increases, the convective region narrows and is more confined to the warmest SSTs. At warmer mean SSTs and stronger SST gradients, low-frequency variability in the convective aggregation emerges, suggesting that simulations of at least 200 d may be needed to achieve robust equilibrium statistics in this configuration. Simulations with different domain sizes generally have similar mean statistics and convective structures, depending on the value of the SST gradient. The prescribed SST boundary condition is the only difference in the set-up between RCEMIP-II and RCEMIP-I, which enables comparison between the two; however, we also welcome participation in RCEMIP-II from models that did not participate in RCEMIP-I.

Geology↗