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Techniques for generation of control and guidance signals derived from optical fields, part 2

The development is reported of a high resolution technique for the detection and identification of landmarks from spacecraft optical fields. By making use of nonlinear regression analysis, a method is presented whereby a sequence of synthetic images produced by a digital computer can be automatically adjusted to provide a least squares approximation to a real image. The convergence of the method is demonstrated by means of a computer simulation for both elliptical and rectangular patterns. Statistical simulation studies with elliptical and rectangular patterns show that the computational techniques developed are able to at least match human pattern recognition capabilities, even in the presence of large amounts of noise. Unlike most pattern recognition techniques, this ability is unaffected by arbitrary pattern rotation, translation, and scale change. Further development of the basic approach may eventually allow a spacecraft or robot vehicle to be provided with an ability to very accurately determine its spatial relationship to arbitrary known objects within its optical field of view.

Hemami, H.↗

Mechanisms of cardiac hypertrophy in canine volume overload

This study tested whether the modest hypertrophy that develops in dogs in response to mitral regurgitation is due to a relatively small change in the rate of protein synthesis or, alternatively, is due to a decreased rate of protein degradation. After 3 mo of severe experimental mitral regurgitation, the left ventricular (LV) mass-to-body weight ratio increased by 23% compared with baseline values. This increase in LV mass occurred with a small, but not statistically significant, increase in the fractional rate of myosin heavy chain (MHC) synthesis (Ks), as measured using continuous infusion with [3H]leucine in dogs at 2 wk, 4 wk, and 3 mo after creation of severe mitral regurgitation. Translational efficiency was unaffected by mitral regurgitation as measured by the distribution of MHC mRNA in polysome gradients. Furthermore, there was no detectable increase in translational capacity as measured by either total RNA content or the rate of ribosome formation. These data indicate that translational mechanisms that accelerate the rate of cardiac protein synthesis are not responsive to the stimulus of mitral regurgitation. Most of the growth after mitral regurgitation was accounted for by a decrease in the fractional rate of protein degradation, calculated by subtracting fractional rates of protein accumulation at each time point from the corresponding Ks values. We conclude that 1) volume overload produced by severe mitral regurgitation does not trigger substantial increases in the rate of protein synthesis and 2) the modest increase in LV mass results primarily from a decrease in the rate of protein degradation.

Non-NASA Center↗

Ten Years of Cloud Properties from MODIS: Global Statistics and Use in Climate Model Evaluation

The NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), launched onboard the Terra and Aqua spacecrafts, began Earth observations on February 24, 2000 and June 24,2002, respectively. Among the algorithms developed and applied to this sensor, a suite of cloud products includes cloud masking/detection, cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure), and optical properties (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path, and thermodynamic phase). All cloud algorithms underwent numerous changes and enhancements between for the latest Collection 5 production version; this process continues with the current Collection 6 development. We will show example MODIS Collection 5 cloud climatologies derived from global spatial . and temporal aggregations provided in the archived gridded Level-3 MODIS atmosphere team product (product names MOD08 and MYD08 for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively). Data sets in this Level-3 product include scalar statistics as well as 1- and 2-D histograms of many cloud properties, allowing for higher order information and correlation studies. In addition to these statistics, we will show trends and statistical significance in annual and seasonal means for a variety of the MODIS cloud properties, as well as the time required for detection given assumed trends. To assist in climate model evaluation, we have developed a MODIS cloud simulator with an accompanying netCDF file containing subsetted monthly Level-3 statistical data sets that correspond to the simulator output. Correlations of cloud properties with ENSO offer the potential to evaluate model cloud sensitivity; initial results will be discussed.

Platnick, Steven E.↗

Heterogeneous reactions of HNO3(g) + NaCl(s) yields HCl(g) + NaNO3(s) and N2O5(g) + NaCl(s) yields ClNO2(g) + NaNO3(s)

The heterogeneous reactions of HNO3(g) + NaCl(s) yields HCl(g) + NaNO3(s) (eq 1) and N2O5(g) + NaCl(s) yields ClNO2(g) + NaNO3(S) (eq 2) were investigated over the temperature range 223-296 K in a flow-tube reactor coupled to a quadrupole mass spectrometer. Either a chemical ionization mass spectrometer (CIMS) or an electron-impact ionization mass spectrometer (EIMS) was used to provide suitable detection sensitivity and selectivity. In order to mimic atmospheric conditions, partial pressures of HNO3 and N2O5 in the range 6 x 10(exp -8) - 2 x 10(exp -6) Torr were used. Granule sizes and surface roughness of the solid NaCl substrates were determined by using a scanning electron microscope. For dry NaCl substrates, decay rates of HNO3 were used to obtain gamma(1) = 0.013 +/- 0.004 (1sigma) at 296 K and > 0.008 at 223 K, respectively. The error quoted is the statistical error. After all corrections were made, the overall error, including systematic error, was estimated to be about a factor of 2. HCl was found to be the sole gas-phase product of reaction 1. The mechanism changed from heterogeneous reaction to predominantly physical adsorption when the reactor was cooled from 296 to 223 K. For reaction 2 using dry salts, gamma(2) was found to be less than 1.0 x 10(exp -4) at both 223 and 296 K. The gas-phase reaction product was identified as ClNO2 in previous studies using an infrared spectrometer. An enhancement in reaction probability was observed if water was not completely removed from salt surfaces, probably due to the reaction of N2O5(g) + H2O(s) yields 2HNO3(g). Our results are compared with previous literature values obtained using different experimental techniques and conditions. The implications of the present results for the enhancement of the hydrogen chloride column density in the lower stratosphere after the El Chichon volcanic eruption and for the chemistry of HCl and HNO3 in the marine troposphere are discussed.

Leu, Ming-Taun↗

Classifying Urban Land Covers Using Local Indices of Spatial Complexity

The skewed statistical distributions of land cover types in complex, heterogeneous urban areas limits the effectiveness of traditional spectrally based maximum-likelihood classifiers. This work examines the utility of fractal dimension and Moran's I index of spatial autocorrelation in segmenting high-resolution panchromatic and lower-resolution multispectral imagery. Tools available in the Image Characterization and Modeling System (ICAMS) were used to analyze multi-temporal and multi-platform imagery of Atlanta, Georgia. In this example, land cover change trajectories from forest or grassland to built up land covers lead to decreased spatial autocorrelation. In lower resolution imagery such as Landsat MSS, the complex details of forested land covers and urbanized areas are smoothed, and texture-based change detection is less effective. Although segmentation of panchromatic images is possible using fractal dimension or Moran's I, widely differing land covers often yield similar values of these indices. Better results are obtained when a surface of local fractal dimension or spatial autocorrelation is combined as an additional layer in a supervised maximum-likelihood multispectral classification.

Arumugam, Mahesh↗

Using Satellite Data to Characterize the Temporal Thermal Behavior of an Active Volcano: Mount St. Helens, WA

ASTER thermal infrared data over Mt. St Helens were used to characterize its thermal behavior from Jun 2000 to Feb 2006. Prior to the Oct 2004 eruption, the average crater temperature varied seasonally between -12 and 6 C. After the eruption, maximum single-pixel temperature increased from 10 C (Oct 2004) to 96 C (Aug 2005), then showed a decrease to Feb 2006. The initial increase in temperature was correlated with dome morphology and growth rate and the subsequent decrease was interpreted to relate to both seasonal trends and a decreased growth rate/increased cooling rate, possibly suggesting a significant change in the volcanic system. A single-pixel ASTER thermal anomaly first appeared on Oct 1, 2004, eleven hours after the first eruption - 10 days before new lava was exposed at the surface. By contrast, an automated algorithm for detecting thermal anomalies in MODIS data did not trigger an alert until Dec 18. However, a single-pixel thermal anomaly first appeared in MODIS channel 23 (4 um) on Oct 13, 12 days after the first eruption - 2 days after lava was exposed. The earlier thermal anomaly detected with ASTER data is attributed to the higher spatial resolution (90 m) compared with MODIS (1 m) and the earlier visual observation of anomalous pixels compared to the automated detection method suggests that local spatial statistics and background radiance data could improve automated detection methods.

Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflectio↗

On the Coronal Mass Ejection Detection Rate during Solar Cycles 23 and 24

The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission's white light coronagraphs have observed more than25,000 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from 1996 January to the end of 2015 July. This period of time covers almost two solar cycles (23 and 24). The basic attributes of CMEs, reported in the SOHO/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) catalog, during these solar cycles were statistically analyzed. The question of the CME detection rate and its connection to the solar cycles was considered in detail. Based on the properties and detection rate, CMEs can be divided into two categories: regular and specific events. The regular events are pronounced and follow the pattern of sunspot number. On the other hand, the special events are poorer and more correlated with the general conditions of heliosphere and corona. Nevertheless, both groups of CMEs are the result of the same physical phenomenon, viz. release of magnetic energy from closed field regions. It was demonstrated that the enhanced CME rate, since the solar cycle 23 polar-field reversal, is due to a significant decrease of total(magnetic and plasma) heliospheric pressure as well as the changed magnetic pattern of solar corona. CMEs expel free magnetic energy and helicity from the Sun; therefore, they are related to complex solar magnetic field structure. It is also worth emphasizing that the CMEs listed in the SOHO/LASCO catalog are real ejections (not false identification). Their detection rate reflects the global evolution of the magnetic field on the Sun, and not only changes in the magnetic structures associated with sunspots.

Michalek, Grzegorz↗

Ecological effects of strip mining in Ohio

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 imagery has identified when reclamation has proved successful, when little lateral extension has occurred in the strip mine, when water has filled an impoundment (4 - 5 acres), and detected narrow contour mines. It has been proven that the CCT contains more information than the imagery received from NASA. A stream is visible in the band 7 digital printout that is not visible in the imagery. Also narrow bodies of water between the high wall and spoils bank and small impoundments (2 - 3 acres) are observed in the digital printout and not in the imagery. Disruption maps (water and bare earth within the mined area) can be made by statistically processing the CCT (decision imagery) or mapping the digital printout with a Bendix digitizer. Reclamation maps will be produced in the near future through decision imagery. There seems little doubt that the mapping of present stripping and the monitoring of the strip mine cycle for changes are practical. Disruption mapping is now an operational capability.

Chase, P. E.↗

Algorithm for Detection of Ground and Canopy Cover in Micropulse Photon-Counting Lidar Altimeter Data in Preparation for the ICESat-2 Mission

NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite-II (ICESat-2) mission is a decadal survey mission (2016 launch). The mission objectives are to measure land ice elevation, sea ice freeboard, and changes in these variables, as well as to collect measurements over vegetation to facilitate canopy height determination. Two innovative components will characterize the ICESat-2 lidar: 1) collection of elevation data by a multibeam system and 2) application of micropulse lidar (photon-counting) technology. A photon-counting altimeter yields clouds of discrete points, resulting from returns of individual photons, and hence new data analysis techniques are required for elevation determination and association of the returned points to reflectors of interest. The objective of this paper is to derive an algorithm that allows detection of ground under dense canopy and identification of ground and canopy levels in simulated ICESat-2 data, based on airborne observations with a Sigma Space micropulse lidar. The mathematical algorithm uses spatial statistical and discrete mathematical concepts, including radial basis functions, density measures, geometrical anisotropy, eigenvectors, and geostatistical classification parameters and hyperparameters. Validation shows that ground and canopy elevation, and hence canopy height, can be expected to be observable with high accuracy by ICESat-2 for all expected beam energies considered for instrument design (93.01%-99.57% correctly selected points for a beam with expected return of 0.93 mean signals per shot (msp), and 72.85%-98.68% for 0.48 msp). The algorithm derived here is generally applicable for elevation determination from photoncounting lidar altimeter data collected over forested areas, land ice, sea ice, and land surfaces, as well as for cloud detection.

Algorithms↗

Plasmaspheric Drainage Plumes: Inner-Magnetospheric Coupling from the IMAGE/EUV Perspective

Plasmaspheric drainage plumes appear in the aftermath of periods of enhanced convection/erosion and are interpreted as a near-equatorial signature of the redistribution of thermal plasma along streamlines. Analysis of IMAGE/EUV observations from "FirstLight" through the end of calendar year 2002 reveals that for Kp greater than or equal to 3, there is an 84% probability of observing a plasmaspheric plume in EUV data. We present a statistical analysis of the geomagnetic conditions [Kp, Dst, and solar wind-induced electric field] associated with EUV plume observations. This analysis yields a peak in observational probability when Kp = 4 and Dst = -50 nT. Additionally, EUV pllume observations are associated with a solar wind-induced convection electric field at Earth [Ev, SM] characterized by bi-modal behavior with a positive mode peaked at approximately 4 m V(raised dot) m(sup -1) and a negative model that peaks at -2 mV (raised dot) m(sup -1). Analysis of the time rate of change of the plume-associated Ev, SM indicated that once the mechanism for plume formation is initiated, a slowly changing convection environment is required to allow for sufficient plume development prior to EUV detection.

Adrian, Mark L.↗

Recent Decline in Extratropical Lower Stratospheric Ozone Attributed to Circulation Changes

The 1998-2016 ozone trends in the lower stratosphere are examined using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) and related National Aeronautics and Space Administration products. After removing biases resulting from step changes in the MERRA-2 ozone observations, a discernible negative trend of 1.67 +/- 0.54 Dobson units per decade (DU/decade) is found in the 10-km layer above the tropopause between 20 deg N and 60 deg N. A weaker but statistically significant trend of 1.17 +/- 0.33 DU/decade exists between 50 deg S and 20 deg S. In the Tropics, a positive trend is seen in a 5-km layer above the tropopause. Analysis of an idealized tracer in a model simulation constrained by MERRA-2 meteorological fields provides strong evidence that these trends are driven by enhanced isentropic transport between the tropical (20 deg S-20 deg N) and extratropical lower stratosphere in the past two decades. This is the first time that a reanalysis data set has been used to detect and attribute trends in lower stratospheric ozone.

trend↗

Potential of VIIRS Time Series Data for Aiding the USDA Forest Service Early Warning System for Forest Health Threats: A Gypsy Moth Defoliation Case Study

This report details one of three experiments performed during FY 2007 for the NASA RPC (Rapid Prototyping Capability) at Stennis Space Center. This RPC experiment assesses the potential of VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data for detecting and monitoring forest defoliation from the non-native Eurasian gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar). The intent of the RPC experiment was to assess the degree to which VIIRS data can provide forest disturbance monitoring information as an input to a forest threat EWS (Early Warning System) as compared to the level of information that can be obtained from MODIS data. The USDA Forest Service (USFS) plans to use MODIS products for generating broad-scaled, regional monitoring products as input to an EWS for forest health threat assessment. NASA SSC is helping the USFS to evaluate and integrate currently available satellite remote sensing technologies and data products for the EWS, including the use of MODIS products for regional monitoring of forest disturbance. Gypsy moth defoliation of the mid-Appalachian highland region was selected as a case study. Gypsy moth is one of eight major forest insect threats listed in the Healthy Forest Restoration Act (HFRA) of 2003; the gypsy moth threatens eastern U.S. hardwood forests, which are also a concern highlighted in the HFRA of 2003. This region was selected for the project because extensive gypsy moth defoliation occurred there over multiple years during the MODIS operational period. This RPC experiment is relevant to several nationally important mapping applications, including agricultural efficiency, coastal management, ecological forecasting, disaster management, and carbon management. In this experiment, MODIS data and VIIRS data simulated from MODIS were assessed for their ability to contribute broad, regional geospatial information on gypsy moth defoliation. Landsat and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) data were used to assess the quality of gypsy moth defoliation mapping products derived from MODIS data and from simulated VIIRS data. The project focused on use of data from MODIS Terra as opposed to MODIS Aqua mainly because only MODIS Terra data was collected during 2000 and 2001-years with comparatively high amounts of gypsy moth defoliation within the study area. The project assessed the quality of VIIRS data simulation products. Hyperion data was employed to assess the quality of MODIS-based VIIRS simulation datasets using image correlation analysis techniques. The ART (Application Research Toolbox) software was used for data simulation. Correlation analysis between MODIS-simulated VIIRS data and Hyperion-simulated VIIRS data for red, NIR (near-infrared), and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) image data products collectively indicate that useful, effective VIIRS simulations can be produced using Hyperion and MODIS data sources. The r(exp 2) for red, NIR, and NDVI products were 0.56, 0.63, and 0.62, respectively, indicating a moderately high correlation between the 2 data sources. Temporal decorrelation from different data acquisition times and image misregistration may have lowered correlation results. The RPC experiment also generated MODIS-based time series data products using the TSPT (Time Series Product Tool) software. Time series of simulated VIIRS NDVI products were produced at approximately 400-meter resolution GSD (Ground Sampling Distance) at nadir for comparison to MODIS NDVI products at either 250- or 500-meter GSD. The project also computed MODIS (MOD02) NDMI (Normalized Difference Moisture Index) products at 500-meter GSD for comparison to NDVI-based products. For each year during 2000-2006, MODIS and VIIRS (simulated from MOD02) time series were computed during the peak gypsy moth defoliation time frame in the study area (approximately June 10 through July 27). Gypsy moth defoliation mapping products from simated VIIRS and MOD02 time series were produced using multiple methods, including image classification and change detection via image differencing. The latter enabled an automated defoliation detection product computed using percent change in maximum NDVI for a peak defoliation period during 2001 compared to maximum NDVI across the entire 2000-2006 time frame. Final gypsy moth defoliation mapping products were assessed for accuracy using randomly sampled locations found on available geospatial reference data (Landsat and ASTER data in conjunction with defoliation map data from the USFS). Extensive gypsy moth defoliation patches were evident on screen displays of multitemporal color composites derived from MODIS data and from simulated VIIRS vegetation index data. Such defoliation was particularly evident for 2001, although widespread denuded forests were also seen for 2000 and 2003. These visualizations were validated using aforementioned reference data. Defoliation patches were visible on displays of MODIS-based NDVI and NDMI data. The viewing of apparent defoliation patches on all of these products necessitated adoption of a specialized temporal data processing method (e.g., maximum NDVI during the peak defoliation time frame). The frequency of cloud cover necessitated this approach. Multitemporal simulated VIIRS and MODIS Terra data both produced effective general classifications of defoliated forest versus other land cover. For 2001, the MOD02-simulated VIIRS 400-meter NDVI classification produced a similar yet slightly lower overall accuracy (87.28 percent with 0.72 Kappa) than the MOD02 250-meter NDVI classification (88.44 percent with 0.75 Kappa). The MOD13 250-meter NDVI classification had a lower overall accuracy (79.13 percent) and a much lower Kappa (0.46). The report discusses accuracy assessment results in much more detail, comparing overall classification and individual class accuracy statistics for simulated VIIRS 400-meter NDVI, MOD02 250-meter NDVI, MOD02-500 meter NDVI, MOD13 250-meter NDVI, and MOD02 500-meter NDMI classifications. Automated defoliation detection products from simulated VIIRS and MOD02 data for 2001 also yielded similar, relatively high overall classification accuracy (85.55 percent for the VIIRS 400-meter NDVI versus 87.28 percent for the MOD02 250-meter NDVI). In contrast, the USFS aerial sketch map of gypsy moth defoliation showed a lower overall classification accuracy at 73.64 percent. The overall classification Kappa values were also similar for the VIIRS (approximately 0.67 Kappa) versus the MOD02 (approximately 0.72 Kappa) automated defoliation detection product, which were much higher than the values exhibited by the USFS sketch map product (overall Kappa of approximately 0.47). The report provides additional details on the accuracy of automated gypsy moth defoliation detection products compared with USFS sketch maps. The results suggest that VIIRS data can be effectively simulated from MODIS data and that VIIRS data will produce gypsy moth defoliation mapping products that are similar to MODIS-based products. The results of the RPC experiment indicate that VIIRS and MODIS data products have good potential for integration into the forest threat EWS. The accuracy assessment was performed only for 2001 because of time constraints and a relative scarcity of cloud-free Landsat and ASTER data for the peak defoliation period of the other years in the 2000-2006 time series. Additional work should be performed to assess the accuracy of gypsy moth defoliation detection products for additional years.The study area (mid-Appalachian highlands) and application (gypsy moth forest defoliation) are not necessarily representative of all forested regions and of all forest threat disturbance agents. Additional work should be performed on other inland and coastal regions as well as for other major forest threats.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

Understanding software faults and their role in software reliability modeling

This study is a direct result of an on-going project to model the reliability of a large real-time control avionics system. In previous modeling efforts with this system, hardware reliability models were applied in modeling the reliability behavior of this system. In an attempt to enhance the performance of the adapted reliability models, certain software attributes were introduced in these models to control for differences between programs and also sequential executions of the same program. As the basic nature of the software attributes that affect software reliability become better understood in the modeling process, this information begins to have important implications on the software development process. A significant problem arises when raw attribute measures are to be used in statistical models as predictors, for example, of measures of software quality. This is because many of the metrics are highly correlated. Consider the two attributes: lines of code, LOC, and number of program statements, Stmts. In this case, it is quite obvious that a program with a high value of LOC probably will also have a relatively high value of Stmts. In the case of low level languages, such as assembly language programs, there might be a one-to-one relationship between the statement count and the lines of code. When there is a complete absence of linear relationship among the metrics, they are said to be orthogonal or uncorrelated. Usually the lack of orthogonality is not serious enough to affect a statistical analysis. However, for the purposes of some statistical analysis such as multiple regression, the software metrics are so strongly interrelated that the regression results may be ambiguous and possibly even misleading. Typically, it is difficult to estimate the unique effects of individual software metrics in the regression equation. The estimated values of the coefficients are very sensitive to slight changes in the data and to the addition or deletion of variables in the regression equation. Since most of the existing metrics have common elements and are linear combinations of these common elements, it seems reasonable to investigate the structure of the underlying common factors or components that make up the raw metrics. The technique we have chosen to use to explore this structure is a procedure called principal components analysis. Principal components analysis is a decomposition technique that may be used to detect and analyze collinearity in software metrics. When confronted with a large number of metrics measuring a single construct, it may be desirable to represent the set by some smaller number of variables that convey all, or most, of the information in the original set. Principal components are linear transformations of a set of random variables that summarize the information contained in the variables. The transformations are chosen so that the first component accounts for the maximal amount of variation of the measures of any possible linear transform; the second component accounts for the maximal amount of residual variation; and so on. The principal components are constructed so that they represent transformed scores on dimensions that are orthogonal. Through the use of principal components analysis, it is possible to have a set of highly related software attributes mapped into a small number of uncorrelated attribute domains. This definitively solves the problem of multi-collinearity in subsequent regression analysis. There are many software metrics in the literature, but principal component analysis reveals that there are few distinct sources of variation, i.e. dimensions, in this set of metrics. It would appear perfectly reasonable to characterize the measurable attributes of a program with a simple function of a small number of orthogonal metrics each of which represents a distinct software attribute domain.

Munson, John C.↗

Remote sensing of changes in morphology and physiology of trees under stress

Results of continuing studies of forest trees subjected to varying types of stress are reported. Both greenhouse and field studies are included. Greenhouse work with tree seedlings exposed to varying levels of NaCl and CaCl2 in the soil indicated that, in the initial stages, palisade cells shrink and the amount of air space in the leaf increases. As the severity of damage increases, the cells of the spongy mesophyll shrink and flatten, and the amount of air space in the leaf decreases. Statistical analysis of foliar reflectance and associated moisture content data led to a series of regression equations for predicting foliar moisture content from reflectance data. Equations were calculated for three species, yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britton), sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) and white ash (Fraxinus americana L.) having multiple correlation coefficients of 0.98, 0.94 and 0.93 respectively. Interpretation of multispectral imagery of the Ann Arbor Forestry Test Site (NASA Site 190) provided evidence that infections of Fomes annosus can be detected in the early stages. Infections of two needle cast diseases were also detected in conifer plantations in the test site. A study of automatic interpretation of multispectral scanner imagery for tree species recognition provided encouraging results.

Olson, C. E., Jr.↗

Microbial Risk Assessment

Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose-response characteristics may be affected by a potentially dysfunctional crew immune system during a mission. In addition, microbial virulence has been shown to change under certain conditions during spaceflight, further complicating dose-response characterization. An initial study of the applicability of microbial risk assessment techniques was performed using Crew Health Care System (CHeCS) operational data from the International Space Station potable water systems. The risk of infection from potable water was selected as the flight systems and microbial ecology are well defined. This initial study confirmed the feasibility of using microbial risk assessment modeling for spaceflight systems. While no immediate threat was detected, the study identified several medically significant microorganisms that could pose a health risk if uncontrolled. The study also identified several specific knowledge gaps in making a risk assessment and noted that filling these knowledge gaps is essential as the risk estimates may change by orders of magnitude depending on the answers. The current phase of the microbial risk assessment studies focuses on the dose-response relationship of specific infectious agents, focusing on Salmonella enterica Typhimurium, Pseudomonas spp., and Escherichia coli, as their evaluation will provide a better baseline for determining the overall hazard characterization. The organisms were chosen as they either have been isolated on spacecraft or have an identified route of infection during a mission. The characterization will utilize dose-response models selected either from the peer-reviewed literature and/or by using statistical approaches. Development of these modeling and risk assessment techniques will help to optimize flight requirements and to protect the safety, health, and performance of the crew.

Ott, C. M.↗

Using x ray images to detect substructure in a sample of 40 Abell clusters

Using a method for constraining the dynamical state of a galaxy cluster by examining the moments of its x-ray surface brightness distribution, we determine the statistics of cluster substructure for a sample of 40 Abell clusters. Using x-ray observations from the Einstein Observatory Imaging Proportional Counter (IPC), we measure the first moment M1(r), the ellipsoidal orientation angle theta2(r), and the axial ratio eta(r) at several different radii in the cluster. We determine the effects of systematics such as x-ray point source emission, telescope vignetting, Poisson noise, and characteristics of the IPC by measuring the same parameters on an ensemble of simulated cluster images. Due to the small band-pass of the IPC, the ICM emissivity is nearly independent of temperature so the intensity at each point in the IPC images is simply proportional to the emission measure calculated along the line of sight through the cluster (e.g. Fabricant et al. 1980). Therefore, barring a change superposition of two x-ray emitting clusters, a significant variation in the image centroid M1(r) as a function of radius indicates that the center of mass of the intra-cluster medium (ICM) varies with radius. We argue that such a configuration (essentially an m = 1 component in the ICM density distribution) is a non-equilibrium component; it results from an off-center subclump or a recent merger in the ICM.

Mohr, J. J.↗

Remote-Sensing Time Series Analysis, a Vegetation Monitoring Tool

The Time Series Product Tool (TSPT) is software, developed in MATLAB , which creates and displays high signal-to- noise Vegetation Indices imagery and other higher-level products derived from remotely sensed data. This tool enables automated, rapid, large-scale regional surveillance of crops, forests, and other vegetation. TSPT temporally processes high-revisit-rate satellite imagery produced by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and by other remote-sensing systems. Although MODIS imagery is acquired daily, cloudiness and other sources of noise can greatly reduce the effective temporal resolution. To improve cloud statistics, the TSPT combines MODIS data from multiple satellites (Aqua and Terra). The TSPT produces MODIS products as single time-frame and multitemporal change images, as time-series plots at a selected location, or as temporally processed image videos. Using the TSPT program, MODIS metadata is used to remove and/or correct bad and suspect data. Bad pixel removal, multiple satellite data fusion, and temporal processing techniques create high-quality plots and animated image video sequences that depict changes in vegetation greenness. This tool provides several temporal processing options not found in other comparable imaging software tools. Because the framework to generate and use other algorithms is established, small modifications to this tool will enable the use of a large range of remotely sensed data types. An effective remote-sensing crop monitoring system must be able to detect subtle changes in plant health in the earliest stages, before the effects of a disease outbreak or other adverse environmental conditions can become widespread and devastating. The integration of the time series analysis tool with ground-based information, soil types, crop types, meteorological data, and crop growth models in a Geographic Information System, could provide the foundation for a large-area crop-surveillance system that could identify a variety of plant phenomena and improve monitoring capabilities.

McKellip, Rodney↗

The 183-WSL Fast Rain Rate Retrieval Algorithm. Part II: Validation Using Ground Radar Measurements

The Water vapour Strong Lines at 183 GHz (183-WSL) algorithm is a method for the retrieval of rain rates and precipitation type classification (convectivestratiform), that makes use of the water vapor absorption lines centered at 183.31 GHz of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit module B (AMSU-B) and of the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) flying on NOAA-15-18 and NOAA-19Metop-A satellite series, respectively. The characteristics of this algorithm were described in Part I of this paper together with comparisons against analogous precipitation products. The focus of Part II is the analysis of the performance of the 183-WSL technique based on surface radar measurements. The ground truth dataset consists of 2.5 years of rainfall intensity fields from the NIMROD European radar network which covers North-Western Europe. The investigation of the 183-WSL retrieval performance is based on a twofold approach: 1) the dichotomous statistic is used to evaluate the capabilities of the method to identify rain and no-rain clouds; 2) the accuracy statistic is applied to quantify the errors in the estimation of rain rates.The results reveal that the 183-WSL technique shows good skills in the detection of rainno-rain areas and in the quantification of rain rate intensities. The categorical analysis shows annual values of the POD, FAR and HK indices varying in the range 0.80-0.82, 0.330.36 and 0.39-0.46, respectively. The RMSE value is 2.8 millimeters per hour for the whole period despite an overestimation in the retrieved rain rates. Of note is the distribution of the 183-WSL monthly mean rain rate with respect to radar: the seasonal fluctuations of the average rainfalls measured by radar are reproduced by the 183-WSL. However, the retrieval method appears to suffer for the winter seasonal conditions especially when the soil is partially frozen and the surface emissivity drastically changes. This fact is verified observing the discrepancy distribution diagrams where2the 183-WSL performs better during the warm months, while during the winter time the discrepancies with radar measurements tends to maximum values. A stable behavior of the 183-WSL algorithm is demonstrated over the whole study period with an overall overestimation for rain rates intensities lower than 1 millimeter per hour. This threshold is crucial especially in wintertime where the low precipitation regime is difficult to be classified.

validationradar↗