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At least 163 records · Page 9

Generating realistic building electrical load profiles through the Generative Adversarial Network (GAN)

Building electrical load profiles can improve understanding of building energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and building-grid interactions. Current approaches to generating load profiles are time-consuming and not capable of reflecting the dynamic and stochastic behaviors of real buildings; some approaches also trigger data privacy concerns. In this study, we proposed a novel approach for generating realistic electrical load profiles of buildings through the Generative Adversarial Network (GAN), a machine learning technique that is capable of revealing an unknown probability distribution purely from data. The proposed approach has three main steps: (1) normalizing the daily 24-hour load profiles, (2) clustering the daily load profiles with the k-means algorithm, and (3) using GAN to generate daily load profiles for each cluster. The approach was tested with an open-source database – the Building Data Genome Project. We validated the proposed method by comparing the mean, standard deviation, and distribution of key parameters of the generated load profiles with those of the real ones. The KL divergence of the generated and real load profiles are within 0.3 for majority of parameters and clusters. Additionally, results showed the load profiles generated by GAN can capture not only the general trend but also the random variations of the actual electrical loads in buildings. We report the proposed GAN approach can be used to generate building electrical load profiles, verify other load profile generation models, detect changes to load profiles, and more importantly, anonymize smart meter data for sharing, to support research and applications of grid-interactive efficient buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Turbulent Axial Odometer Model

A Galilean-invariant field equation is proposed and tested on standard turbulence model test cases. The field equation provides an additional non-dimensional outer scale which allows the turbulence models to reproduce the axial normal stress increase with Re seen in high Reynolds numbers experiments. The field equation provides a Reynolds number for every point based on the length of turbulent flow upstream of that point in the domain. This outer scale equation can be considered an odometer that gives a length scale conjectured to be related to the large stream wise structures that are seen in turbulent flow and that require run length to develop. A new RANS model using this additional scale is able to match the Reynolds number variation of the normal stresses seen at high Reynolds number. Furthermore, the good attached flow prediction capabilities of current RANS models appears to be attained. Using this scale equation, the entire Reynolds-stress state appears to be predicted correctly, over a large run length Reynolds number range such as experienced in aircraft design.

Olsen, Michael E.↗

Image Guided Cervical Brachytherapy: 2014 Survey of the American Brachytherapy Society

Purpose: To provide an update of the 2007 American brachytherapy survey on image-based brachytherapy, which showed that in the setting of treatment planning for gynecologic brachytherapy, although computed tomography (CT) was often used for treatment planning, most brachytherapists used point A for dose specification. Methods and Materials: A 45-question electronic survey on cervical cancer brachytherapy practice patterns was sent to all American Brachytherapy Society members and additional radiation oncologists and physicists based in the United States between January and September 2014. Responses from the 2007 survey and the present survey were compared using the χ{sup 2} test. Results: There were 370 respondents. Of those, only respondents, not in training, who treat more than 1 cervical cancer patient per year and practice in the United States, were included in the analysis (219). For dose specification to the target (cervix and tumor), 95% always use CT, and 34% always use MRI. However, 46% use point A only for dose specification to the target. There was a lot of variation in parameters used for dose evaluation of target volume and normal tissues. Compared with the 2007 survey, use of MRI has increased from 2% to 34% (P<.0001) for dose specification to the target. Use of volume-based dose delineation to the target has increased from 14% to 52% (P<.0001). Conclusion: Although use of image-based brachytherapy has increased in the United States since the 2007 survey, there is room for further growth, particularly with the use of MRI. This increase may be in part due to educational initiatives. However, there is still significant heterogeneity in brachytherapy practice in the United States, and future efforts should be geared toward standardizing treatment.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

On the normality and accuracy of simulated random processes.

Efficient methods of simulating stationary and nonstationary random processes and envelopes, by using a series of sine or cosine functions or by using the fast Fourier transform, have been proposed previously. Without applying the central limit theorem, it is shown in this paper that the simulated random processes are asymptotically Gaussian processes as the number of terms, N, of sine or cosine functions approaches infinity. The accuracy of the first-order probability densities of the simulated random processes is investigated by using the fast Fourier transform. Numerical results are computed with respect to the variation of the number of terms, N, of sine or cosine functions used for simulation. It is shown that within the practical range of N, such as 500, the accuracy is remarkably satisfactory even outside the region of 3 standard deviations.

Yang, J.-N.↗

Evidence for enhanced persistent emission during sub-eddington thermonuclear bursts

In a recent paper we found evidence for an increase in the accretion rate during photospheric radius expansion bursts, quantified by a variable normalization factor f{sub a} on the preburst persistent emission. Here we follow this result up on a much larger sample of 1759 type I X-ray bursts from 56 sources. We show that the variable persistent flux method provides improvements in the quality of spectral fits for type I bursts, whether or not they reach the Eddington luminosity. The new approach has an estimated Bayes factor of 64 improvement over the standard method, and we recommend that the procedure be adopted as standard for analyzing type I bursts. We show evidence that the remaining discrepancies to a formally consistent spectral model are due to the burst component deviating significantly from a blackbody, rather than variations in the spectral shape of the persistent emission component. In bursts that do not show radius expansion, the persistent emission enhancement does not exceed 37% of the Eddington flux. We use this observation to constrain the Eddington flux of sources for which F{sub Edd} has not been directly measured.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantifying the Storm Time Thermospheric Neutral Density Variations Using Model and Observations

Accurate determination of thermospheric neutral density holds crucial importance for satellited rag calculations. The problem is twofold and involves the correct estimation of the quiet time climatology and storm time variations. In this work, neutral density estimations from two empirical and threephysics based models of the ionosphere thermosphere are compared with the neutral densities along the Challenging MicroSatellite Payload satellite track for six geomagnetic storms. Storm time variations are extracted from neutral density by (1) subtracting the mean difference between model and observation (bias),(2) setting climatological variations to zero, and (3) multiplying model data with the quiet time ratio between the model and observation. Several metrics are employed to evaluate the model performances. We find that the removal of bias or climatology reveals actual performance of the model in simulating the storm time variations. When bias is removed, depending on event and model, storm time errors in neutral density can decrease by an amount of 113% or can increase by an amount of 12% with respect to error in models with quiet time bias. It is shown that using only average and maximum values of neutral density to determine the model performances can be misleading since a model can estimate the averages fairly well but may not capture the maximum value or vice versa. Since each of the metrics used for determining model performances provides different aspects of the error, among these, we suggest employing mean absolute error, prediction efficiency, and normalized root mean square error together as a standard set ofmetrics for the neutral density.

Eyiguler, E. Ceren Kalafatoglu↗

Characteristics of flattening filter free beams at low monitor unit settings

Purpose: Newer linear accelerators (linacs) have been equipped to deliver flattening filter free (FFF) beams. When FFF beams are used for step-and-shoot intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), the stability of delivery of small numbers of monitor units (MU) is important. The authors developed automatic measurement techniques to evaluate the stability of the dose profile, dose linearity, and consistency. Here, the authors report the performance of the Artiste™ accelerator (Siemens, Erlangen, Germany) in delivering low-MU FFF beams.Methods: A 6 MV flattened beam (6X) with 300 MU/min dose rate and FFF beams of 7 (7XU) and 11 MV (11XU), each with a 500 MU/min dose rate, were measured at 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 10, and 20 MU settings. For the 2000 MU/min dose rate, the 7 (7XUH) and 11 MV (11XUH) beams were set at 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 MU because of the limits of the minimum MU settings. Beams with 20 × 20 and 10 × 10 cm{sup 2} field sizes were alternately measured ten times in intensity modulated (IM) mode, with which Siemens linacs regulate beam delivery for step-and-shoot IMRT. The in- and crossplane beam profiles were measured using a Profiler™ Model 1170 (Sun Nuclear Corporation, Melbourne, FL) in multiframe mode. The frames of 20 × 20 cm{sup 2} beams were identified at the off-axis profile. The 6X beam profile was normalized at the central axis. The 7 and 11 MV FFF beam profiles were rescaled to set the dose at the central axis at 145% and 170%, respectively. Point doses were also measured using a Farmer-type ionization chamber and water-equivalent solid phantom to evaluate the linearity and consistency of low-MU beam delivery. The values displayed on the electrometer were recognized with a USB-type camera and read with open-source optical character recognition software.Results: The symmetry measurements of the 6X, 7XU, and 11XU beam profiles were better than 2% for beams ≥2 MU and improved with increasing MU. The variations in flatness of FFF beams ≥2 MU were ±5%. The standard deviation of the symmetry and flatness also decreased with increasing MU. The linearity of the 6X beam was ±1% and ±2% for the beams of ≥5 and ≥3 MU, respectively. The 7XU and 11XU beams of ≥2 MU showed linearity with ±2% except the 7XU beam of 8 MU (+2.9%). The profiles of the FFF beams with 2000 and 500 MU/min dose rate were similar.Conclusions: The characteristics of low-MU beams delivered in IM mode were evaluated using an automatic measurement system developed in this study. The authors demonstrated that the profiles of FFF beams of the Artiste™ linac were highly stable, even at low MU. The linearity of dose output was also stable for beams ≥2 MU.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

SU-E-P-08: Alarming Range of Seed Activities Ordered for I-125 Plaque Brachytherapy

Purpose: To investigate the variation in I-125 seed activities ordered by various clinics for their plaque brachytherapy cases under a standardized set of assumptions. Methods: A majority of the plaque programs in North America were contacted and a survey was designed to give a few standardized cases to allow inter-comparison of seed activities ordered. Tumor dose, treatment duration, number of seeds, plaque, and tumor apex were held constant in order to reveal differences in prescription point, seed type, and seed activity. Results: While the survey is presently underway, preliminary results show alarmingly wide variations between centers. Differences up to 45% have been found with 15% differences being common. Conclusion: Though knowledge of the TG-43 dose calculation formalism is common, a number of factors in the field of plaque brachytherapy lead to alarming differences in activity of I-125 seeds being ordered for a given tumor. Knowledge of the present reality of widely varying treatment activities, and thus doses to tumor and normal structures, should serve as motivation for centers involved in this modality to review their programs with others in the community and share their experiences.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

THE MASS DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION OF PLANETS

The distribution of orbital period ratios of adjacent planets in extrasolar planetary systems discovered by the Kepler space telescope exhibits a peak near ∼1.5–2, a long tail of larger period ratios, and a steep drop-off in the number of systems with period ratios below ∼1.5. We find from these data that the dimensionless orbital separations have an approximately log-normal distribution. Using Hill’s criterion for the dynamical stability of two planets, we find an upper bound on planet masses such that the most common planet mass does not exceed 10{sup −3.2}m{sub ∗}, or about two-thirds of Jupiter’s mass for solar-mass stars. Assuming that the mass ratio and the dynamical separation (orbital spacings in units of mutual Hill radius) of adjacent planets are independent random variates, and adopting empirical distributions for these, we use Hill’s criterion in a statistical way to estimate the planet mass distribution function from the observed distribution of orbital separations. We find that the planet mass function is peaked in logarithm of mass, with a peak value and standard deviation of logm/M{sub ⊕} of ∼(0.6−1.0) and ∼(1.1−1.2), respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Forest carbon sequestration on the west coast, USA: Role of species, productivity, and stockability

Forest ecosystems store large amounts of carbon and can be important sources, or sinks, of the atmospheric carbon dioxide that is contributing to global warming. Understanding the carbon storage potential of different forests and their response to management and disturbance events are fundamental to developing policies and scenarios to partially offset greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of live tree carbon accumulation are handled differently in different models, with inconsistent results. We developed growth-and-yield style models to predict stand-level live tree carbon density as a function of stand age in all vegetation types of the coastal Pacific region, US (California, Oregon, and Washington), from 7,523 national forest inventory plots. We incorporated site productivity and stockability within the Chapman-Richards equation and tested whether intensively managed private forests behaved differently from less managed public forests. We found that the best models incorporated stockability in the equation term controlling stand carrying capacity, and site productivity in the equation terms controlling the growth rate and shape of the curve. RMSEs ranged from 10 to 137 Mg C/ha for different vegetation types. There was not a significant effect of ownership over the standard industrial rotation length (~50 yrs) for the productive Douglas-fir/western hemlock zone, indicating that differences in stockability and productivity captured much of the variation attributed to management intensity. Our models suggest that doubling the rotation length on these intensively managed lands from 35 to 70 years would result in 2.35 times more live tree carbon stored on the landscape. These findings are at odds with some studies that have projected higher carbon densities with stand age for the same vegetation types, and have not found an increase in yields (on an annual basis) with longer rotations. We suspect that differences are primarily due to the application of yield curves developed from fully-stocked, undisturbed, single-species, “normal” stands without accounting for the substantial proportion of forests that don’t meet those assumptions. The carbon accumulation curves developed here can be applied directly in growth-and-yield style projection models, and used to validate the predictions of ecophysiological, cohort, or single-tree style models being used to project carbon futures for forests in the region. Our approach may prove useful for developing robust models in other forest types.

Chisholm, Paul J. (ORCID:0000000238784707)↗

Global Patterns of Lightning Properties Derived by LIS

The Lightning Imaging Sensor LIS aboard the TRMM satellite provides unmatched empirical data of the global lightning distribution (up to approx.35deg S/N) since end of 1997. Climatological flash rate densities derived from LIS are standard references, e.g. for flash rate parameterizations used in GCMs. It is known that flash characteristics are quite variable, and that various quantities (like the flash energy or the NOx production per flash) vary considerably, statistically as well as systematically on regional and seasonal scales. LIS provides information beyond flash counts, in particular radiance and flash footprint. Here we present an analysis of global patterns of various lightning properties derived from LIS, in relation to the number of flashes. These normalized flash characteristics show consistent spatial patterns of regions with "strong" versus regions with "weak" lightning. Most striking is a clear land-ocean contrast, with oceanic flashes being "stronger" than continental flashes. But also over continents, flash strength shows systematic variations. Highest continental values are found over the US, while values over South America and India are quite low. These regional variations cannot be simply parameterized as function of latitude. Information on spatial patterns of mean flash "strength", though rather qualitative up to now, is potentially a valuable input for improving empirical parameterizations based on flash counts (like precipitation or lightning NOx). Further investigation is in progress to come to a more physical and quantitative understanding of the spatial patterns of the different LIS properties. In particular, it has to be checked how far they could be related to established lightning properties (like energy or the fraction of intra-cloud to cloud-to-ground flashes) or to meteorological quantities (like CAPE).

Beirle, S.↗

Statistical characteristics of cloud variability. Part 1: Retrieved cloud liquid water path at three ARM sites: Observed cloud variability at ARM sites

Statistical characteristics of cloud variability are examined for their dependence on averaging scales and best representation of probability density function with the decade-long retrieval products of cloud liquid water path (LWP) from the tropical western Pacific (TWP), Southern Great Plains (SGP), and North Slope of Alaska (NSA) sites of the Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program. The statistical moments of LWP show some seasonal variation at the SGP and NSA sites but not much at the TWP site. It is found that the standard deviation, relative dispersion (the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean), and skewness all quickly increase with the averaging window size when the window size is small and become more or less flat when the window size exceeds 12 h. On average, the cloud LWP at the TWP site has the largest values of standard deviation, relative dispersion, and skewness, whereas the NSA site exhibits the least. Correlation analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the mean LWP and the standard deviation. The skewness is found to be closely related to the relative dispersion with a correlation coefficient of 0.6. The comparison further shows that the log normal, Weibull, and gamma distributions reasonably explain the observed relationship between skewness and relative dispersion over a wide range of scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of an Uncertainty Model for the National Transonic Facility

This paper introduces an uncertainty model being developed for the National Transonic Facility (NTF). The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to propagate standard uncertainties of measured values through the NTF data reduction equations to calculate the combined uncertainties of the key aerodynamic force and moment coefficients and freestream properties. The uncertainty propagation approach to assessing data variability is compared with ongoing data quality assessment activities at the NTF, notably check standard testing using statistical process control (SPC) techniques. It is shown that the two approaches are complementary and both are necessary tools for data quality assessment and improvement activities. The SPC approach is the final arbiter of variability in a facility. Its result encompasses variation due to people, processes, test equipment, and test article. The uncertainty propagation approach is limited mainly to the data reduction process. However, it is useful because it helps to assess the causes of variability seen in the data and consequently provides a basis for improvement. For example, it is shown that Mach number random uncertainty is dominated by static pressure variation over most of the dynamic pressure range tested. However, the random uncertainty in the drag coefficient is generally dominated by axial and normal force uncertainty with much less contribution from freestream conditions.

Walter, Joel A.↗

Experimental Investigation of Unsteady Shock Wave Turbulent Boundary Layer Interactions About a Blunt Fin

A series of experiments were performed to investigate the effects of Mach number variation on the characteristics of the unsteady shock wave/turbulent boundary layer interaction generated by a blunt fin. A single blunt fin hemicylindrical leading edge diameter size was used in all of the experiments which covered the Mach number range from 2.0 to 5.0. The measurements in this investigation included surface flow visualization, static and dynamic pressure measurements, both on centerline and off-centerline of the blunt fin axis. Surface flow visualization and static pressure measurements showed that the spatial extent of the shock wave/turbulent boundary layer interaction increased with increasing Mach number. The maximum static pressure, normalized by the incoming static pressure, measured at the peak location in the separated flow region ahead of the blunt fin was found to increase with increasing Mach number. The mean and standard deviations of the fluctuating pressure signals from the dynamic pressure transducers were found to collapse to self-similar distributions as a function of the distance perpendicular to the separation line. The standard deviation of the pressure signals showed initial peaked distribution, with the maximum standard deviation point corresponding to the location of the separation line at Mach number 3.0 to 5.0. At Mach 2.0 the maximum standard deviation point was found to occur significantly upstream of the separation line. The intermittency distributions of the separation shock wave motion were found to be self-similar profiles for all Mach numbers. The intermittent region length was found to increase with Mach number and decrease with interaction sweepback angle. For Mach numbers 3.0 to 5.0 the separation line was found to correspond to high intermittencies or equivalently to the downstream locus of the separation shock wave motion. The Mach 2.0 tests, however, showed that the intermittent region occurs significantly upstream of the separation line. Power spectral densities measured in the intermittent regions were found to have self-similar frequency distributions when compared as functions of a Strouhal number for all Mach numbers and interaction sweepback angles. The maximum zero-crossing frequencies were found to correspond with the peak frequencies in the power spectra measured in the intermittent region.

Barnhart, Paul J.↗

WE-A-BRD-01: Innovation in Radiation Therapy Planning I: Knowledge Guided Treatment Planning

Intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy (VMAT) offer the capability of normal tissues and organs sparing. However, the exact amount of sparing is often unknown until the plan is complete. This lack of prior guidance has led to the iterative, trial and-error approach in current planning practice. Even with this effort the search for patient-specific optimal organ sparing is still strongly influenced by planner's experience. While experience generally helps in maximizing the dosimetric advantages of IMRT/VMAT, there have been several reports showing unnecessarily high degree of plan quality variability at individual institutions and amongst different institutions, even with a large amount of experience and the best available tools. Further, when physician and physicist evaluate a plan, the dosimetric quality of the plan is often compared with a standard protocol that ignores individual patient anatomy and tumor characteristic variations. In recent years, developments of knowledge models for clinical IMRT/VMAT planning guidance have shown promising clinical potentials. These knowledge models extract past expert clinical experience into mathematical models that predict dose sparing references at patient-specific level. For physicians and planners, these references provide objective values that reflect best achievable dosimetric constraints. For quality assurance, applying patient-specific dosimetry requirements will enable more quantitative and objective assessment of protocol compliance for complex IMRT planning. Learning Objectives: Modeling and representation of knowledge for knowledge-guided treatment planning. Demonstrations of knowledge-guided treatment planning with a few clinical caanatomical sites. Validation and evaluation of knowledge models for cost and quality effective standardization of plan optimization.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Simulation of PV Variability as a Function of PV Generation and Plant Size: Preprint

The deployment of photovoltaic (PV) systems continues to show significant expansion; however, this growth has brought added attention to issues around the variability of the solar resource. Both spatial and temporal variability exist. Temporal scales can range from the sub-second to multiyear, whereas spatial scales can range from a few meters to tens of kilometers. There are multiple methods described in the literature to quantify PV variability at various spatial and temporal scales. This study focuses on short-term temporal variability and uses similar approaches with the addition of PV plant size a parameter to quantify variability. The method employed here incorporates the normalization of clear- and cloudy-sky conditions and PV plant size to quantify nominal variability metrics. The distribution and fluctuations of these metrics provide relevant information that is useful for system operations. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to simulate PV variability as a function of PV generation and plant size. Hypothetical but realistic system information at 33 locations is used to model PV generation by feeding NSRDB solar irradiance data to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s System Advisor Model (SAM). Over the selected region, it is found that the aggregated ramp rates for the 1-minute data are associated with standard deviations ranging from 0.002–0.055 on a daily basis; however, hourly intervals induce higher aggregated ramp rates than the other timescales. Even though minute-to-minute variations are significant for the 1-minute timescale, the standard deviation aggregated into a daily metric is smaller because of the cancellation of values.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Simulation of PV Variability as a Function of PV Generation and Plant Size

The deployment of photovoltaic (PV) systems continues to show significant expansion; however, this growth has brought added attention to issues around the variability of the solar resource. Both spatial and temporal variability exist. Temporal scales can range from the sub-second to multiyear, whereas spatial scales can range from a few meters to tens of kilometers. There are multiple methods described in the literature to quantify PV variability at various spatial and temporal scales. This study focuses on short-term temporal variability and uses similar approaches with the addition of PV plant size a parameter to quantify variability. The method employed here incorporates the normalization of clear-and cloudy-sky conditions and PV plant size to quantify nominal variability metrics. The distribution and fluctuations of these metrics provide relevant information that is useful for system operations. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to simulate PV variability as a function of PV generation and plant size. Hypothetical but realistic system information at 33 locations is used to model PV generation by feeding NSRDB solar irradiance data to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s System Advisor Model (SAM). Over the selected region, it is found that the aggregated ramp rates for the 1-minute data are associated with standard deviations ranging from 0.002–0.055 on a daily basis; however, hourly intervals induce higher aggregated ramp rates than the other timescales. Even though minute-to-minute variations are significant for the 1-minute time-scale, the standard deviation aggregated into a daily metric is smaller because of the cancellation of values.

irradiance↗

CfAIR2: Near-infrared light curves of 94 TYPE Ia supernovae

CfAIR2 is a large, homogeneously reduced set of near-infrared (NIR) light curves (LCs) for Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) obtained with the 1.3 m Peters Automated InfraRed Imaging TELescope. This data set includes 4637 measurements of 94 SNe Ia and 4 additional SNe Iax observed from 2005 to 2011 at the Fred Lawrence Whipple Observatory on Mount Hopkins, Arizona. CfAIR2 includes JHK{sub s} photometric measurements for 88 normal and 6 spectroscopically peculiar SN Ia in the nearby universe, with a median redshift of z ∼ 0.021 for the normal SN Ia. CfAIR2 data span the range from −13 days to +127 days from B-band maximum. More than half of the LCs begin before the time of maximum, and the coverage typically contains ∼13–18 epochs of observation, depending on the filter. We present extensive tests that verify the fidelity of the CfAIR2 data pipeline, including comparison to the excellent data of the Carnegie Supernova Project. CfAIR2 contributes to a firm local anchor for SN cosmology studies in the NIR. Because SN Ia are more nearly standard candles in the NIR and are less vulnerable to the vexing problems of extinction by dust, CfAIR2 will help the SN cosmology community develop more precise and accurate extragalactic distance probes to improve our knowledge of cosmological parameters, including dark energy and its potential time variation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗