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At least 163 records · Page 9

ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model

Abstract. The future retreat rate for marine-based regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest uncertainties in sea-level projections. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) aims to improve projections and quantify uncertainties by running an ensemble of ice sheet models with atmosphere and ocean forcing derived from global climate models. Here, the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) is used to run ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. Using multiple combinations of sub-ice-shelf melt parameterizations and calibrations, CISM is spun up to steady state over many millennia. During the spin-up, basal friction parameters and basin-scale thermal forcing corrections are adjusted to optimize agreement with the observed ice thickness. The model is then run forward for 550 years, from 1950–2500, applying ocean thermal forcing anomalies from six climate models. In all simulations, the ocean forcing triggers long-term retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, especially in the Filchner–Ronne and Ross sectors. Mass loss accelerates late in the 21st century and then rises steadily for several centuries without leveling off. The resulting ocean-forced sea-level rise at year 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm, depending on the melt scheme and ocean forcing. Further experiments show relatively high sensitivity to the basal friction law, moderate sensitivity to grid resolution and the prescribed collapse of small ice shelves, and low sensitivity to the stress-balance approximation. The Amundsen sector exhibits threshold behavior, with modest retreat under many parameter settings but complete collapse under some combinations of low basal friction and high thermal forcing anomalies. Large uncertainties remain, as a result of parameterized sub-shelf melt rates, simplified treatments of calving and basal friction, and the lack of ice–ocean coupling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

initMIP-Antarctica: an Ice Sheet Model Initialization Experiment of ISMIP6

Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.

ice sheet model↗

Site-decorated model for unconventional frustrated magnets: Ultranarrow phase crossover and two-dimensional spin reversal transition

Here, the site-decorated Ising model is introduced to advance the understanding and experimental realization of the recently discovered one-dimensional (1D) finite-temperature ultranarrow phase crossover in an external magnetic field, while mitigating the geometric complexities of traditional bond-decorated models. The unconventional frustration and physics are clarified by exactly mapping the 1D site-decorated Ising model in a magnetic field onto a zero-field bond-decorated 𝐽 1 −𝐽 2 Ising model with conventional geometrical frustration. Furthermore, although higher-dimensional Ising models in an external field remain unsolved exactly, an exact solution for a spin-reversal transition—driven by an exotic, hidden half-ice, half-fire state induced by site decoration—is derived. This transition, triggered by a slight variation in temperature or magnetic field—without changing its direction—even in the weak-field limit, offers a promising route toward energy-efficient applications such as data storage and processing. The results suggest that site decoration offers an avenue for materials and device design, particularly in systems such as mixed 𝑑−𝑓 compounds, optical lattices, and neural networks, calling for further studies with site-decorated Heisenberg models. In addition, the site-decorated model offers a rigorous test ground for artificial intelligence (AI) in science, as the analytic derivation of the present results was not only validated but also improved by a general-purpose large language model, inspiring the use of AI as scientific discoverer.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Disintegration of Long-period Comet C/2019 Y4 (ATLAS). I. Hubble Space Telescope Observations

The near-Sun comet C/2019 Y4 (ATLAS) is the first member of a long-period comet group observed to disintegrate well before perihelion. Here we present our investigation into this disintegration event using images obtained in a three-day Hubble Space Telescope campaign. We identify two fragment clusters produced by the initial disintegration event, corresponding to fragments C/2019 Y4-A and C/2019 Y4-B identified in ground-based data. These two clusters started with similar integrated brightness but exhibit different evolutionary behavior. C/2019 Y4-A was much shorter-lived compared to C/2019 Y4-B and showed signs of significant mass loss and changes in size distribution throughout the three-day campaign. The cause of the initial fragmentation is undetermined by the limited evidence but crudely compatible with either the spin-up disruption of the nucleus or runaway sublimation of subsurface supervolatile ices, either of which would lead to the release of a large amount of gas as inferred from the significant bluing of the comet observed shortly before its disintegration. Gas can only be produced by the sublimation of volatile ices, which must have survived at least one perihelion passage at a perihelion distance of q = 0.25 au. We speculate that Comet ATLAS is derived from the ice-rich interior of a nonuniform, kilometer-wide progenitor that split during its previous perihelion. This suggests that comets down to a few kilometers in diameter can still possess complex, nonuniform interiors that can protect ices against intense solar heating.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Distribution of Martian ground-ice table: Preliminary results about climatic variations

Rampart craters seem to have been emplaced by flows around craters over the surface just after the impact event by melting of volatiles. Such rampart craters are considered to be good ground-ice indicators. A map shows a latitudinal distribution of Martian ground-ice with a deep ground-ice table at equatorial latitudes and subsurface ground-ice tables at mid and high latitudes. Some studies suggest the presence of large amounts of ground-ice on Mars, with near surface ground-ice in the northern plains and a permafrost at low latitudes containing a large amount of volatiles at depth. Spatial variations in the spin axis of the planet affect the latitudinal distribution of the Sun's isolation, and therefore the Martian ground-ice distribution.

Costard, F. M.↗

The ortho/para ratio of water vapor in Comet Halley

The ortho/para ratio of H2O is shown to be an invariant in the cometary coma. The dependence of ortho-para ratio on temperature in thermal equilibrium is given, and the nuclear-spin-temperature is defined. Its relation to the physical temperature of the cometary ices is discussed, and the prospects for using the observed ortho/para ratio to infer properties of the cometary nucleus are explored. The ortho/para ratio in Halley's comet is derived from high resolution infrared spectra of near 2.7 microns wavelength. On UT December 24.1, 1985 it was 2.73 + or - 0.17, and on UT March 22.7, 1986 it was 3.23 + or - 0.37. The nuclear-spin-temperature was 35 K (+9 K, -5 K) pre-perihelion, and less than 40 K post-perihelion, at the 67% confidence limit. Both numbers are consistent with modeled values of the equilibrium temperature of the cometary nucleus at aphelion (47 K). However, at the 95% confidence limit they are also fully consistent with temperatures less than 50 K, corresponding to an ortho/para ratio of about 3.0.

Mumma, Michael J.↗

Cryo-EM visualization of viruses from partially irrigated soils

Viruses are numerically the most abundant forms on Earth, and most are present in soil. Even though viruses are highly abundant in soil and critical to rhizosphere function, visualizing the diverse morphotypes within soil has been challenging. The difficulty is primarily due to the heterogenous nature of isolated suspensions that typically contain nanometer to micron scale debris which renders protein crystallography for structural studies unfeasible and hinders cryo-electron microscopy due to ice thickness and contrast issues. Here we employed and compared a simple spin filtration method to cleanup solutions of extracted viruses for direct observation with cryo-electron microscopy. The method employs common physical biochemical separation steps to remove large and small debris which dramatically improves image quality and preservation of structural features to permit visualizing morphotypes not typically seen with conventional negative stain approaches. In addition to tailed and non-tailed polyhedral phages, several under reported or novel morphotypes of soil viruses are directly visualized as a particle library with both 2D and 3D information.

cryo-EM↗

The dynamical history of comet Halley

The history of the attempts to predict the motion of comet Halley is outlined and the importance of the so-called nongravitational forces acting upon this comet is emphasized. Recent orbital work of the International Halley Watch Astrometry Network is reviewed. Comet Halley's transverse nongravitational parameter is positive and nearly constant with time suggesting that the comet is in direct rotation without precession of the spin pole. The nongravitational effects are consistent with the vaporization of water ice from the comet's nucleus and long term integrations suggest that the comet has been in its present orbit for at least 16,000 years and probably much longer.

Yeomans, D. K.↗

Dark Material at the Surface of Polar Crater Deposits on Mercury

Earth-based radar measurements [1-3] have yielded images of radar-bright material at the poles of Mercury postulated to be near-surface water ice residing in cold traps on the permanently shadowed floors of polar impact craters. The Mercury Laser Altimeter (MLA) on board the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft has now mapped much of the north polar region of Mercury [4] (Fig. 1). Radar-bright zones lie within polar craters or along poleward-facing scarps lying mainly in shadow. Calculations of illumination with respect to solid-body motion [5] show that at least 0.5% of the surface area north of 75deg N lies in permanent shadow, and that most such permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) coincide with radar-bright regions. MLA transmits a 1064-nm-wavelength laser pulse at 8 Hz, timing the leading and trailing edges of the return pulse. MLA can in some cases infer energy and thereby surface reflectance at the laser wavelength from the returned pulses. Surficial exposures of water ice would be optically brighter than the surroundings, but persistent surface water ice would require temperatures over all seasons to remain extremely low (<110 K). Thermal models [6,7] incorporating direct and scattered radiation, Mercury s eccentric orbit, 3:2 spin-orbit resonance, and near-zero obliquity generally do not support such conditions in all permanently shadowed craters but suggest that water ice buried near the surface (<0.5 m depth) could survive for > 1 Gy. We describe measurements of reflectivity derived from MLA pulse returns. These reflectivity data show that surface materials in the shadowed regions are darker than their surroundings, enough to strongly attenuate or extinguish laser returns. Such measurements appear to rule out widespread surface exposures of water ice. We consider explanations for the apparent low reflectivity of these regions involving other types of volatile deposit.

Neumann, Gregory A.↗

Identification of lunar rock types and search for polar ice by gamma ray spectroscopy

This paper examines the possibility of mapping the surface composition of the moon from an orbiting spin-stabilized spacecraft, using gamma ray spectroscopy and a cooled germanium solid-state device as a detector. A design for accommodating the germanium detector gamma ray spectrometer was devised, and the detection sensitivity was applied to typical lunar-rock compositions. For sets comprising nine highland and 16 mare types, the most useful elements were found to be Mg, Al, K, Ti, Fe, U, and Th. An analysis of the expected instrument response to the gamma ray and neutron fluxes of water ice indicated that a neutron mode added to the spectrometer will be more sensitive than the gamma ray mode to the possible presence of polar ice. It was calculated that, with a pair of selected neutron absorbers and a model which provides that 2.5 percent of the area above 75-deg latitude is occupied by trapping sites, the instrument will provide a 1-yr mission detection limit of 0.056 percent H2O by weight for each polar region.

Metzger, Albert E.↗

Non-Synchronous Rotation on Europa Driven by Ocean Currents

It has been suggested that the ice shell of Jupiter's moon Europa may drift non-synchronously due to tidal torques. Here we argue that torques applied by the underlying ocean are also important and can result in non-synchronous rotation. The resulting spin rate can be slightly slower than the synchronous angular rate that would have kept the same point of the ice shell facing Jupiter. We develop an ice shell rotation model, driven by ocean stress calculated using a high-resolution state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model, and take into account the viscoelastic deformation of the ice shell. We use the ice shell model results together with observed limits on the ice shell drift speed to constrain ice shell parameters such as effective viscosity, which is currently uncertain by at least four orders of magnitude. Our results suggest, at best, sluggish ice shell convection. Depending on the relaxation time scale of the ice shell and on the ocean currents, the ice shell may exhibit negligible drift, constant drift, or oscillatory drift superimposed on random fluctuations. The expected rotation rate exceeds ~30 m/yr; future spacecraft observations can be used to test these predictions and yield insight into the properties of the ice shell and underlying ocean.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Cometary ephemerides for spacecraft flyby missions

The determination of cometary ephemerides is considered with reference to proposed missions to Comet Halley. It is noted that the ability of spacecraft without onboard navigation capability to fly close to target comets is limited chiefly by the comet's ephemeris uncertainty. The situation is complicated by nongravitational forces acting on a comet's nucleus and the paucity of observers currently making astrometric observations of comets. The nongravitational forces affecting Comet Halley are consistent with the rocket effect of an outgassing water ice nucleus; the nucleus is apparently rotating in a direct sense about a stable spin axis. It is emphasized that accurate Comet Halley ephemerides for close spacecraft flybys will require continued efforts to refine the existing nongravitational force model. In addition, the flyby mission to Comet Halley will require a well-organized network of astrometric observers. For this purpose, an Astrometry Network is being set up within NASA's International Halley Watch program.

Yeomans, D. K.↗

The International Cometary Explorer mission to comet Giacobini-Zinner

The International Cometary Explorer (ICE), scheduled to pass the tail of Comet Giacobini-Zinner on September 11, 1985, was expected to address first-order questions bout the interaction between solar wind and comets. Since ICE was not initially intended for comet studies, it did not have sun-sensitive imaging instruments designed to image the comet nucleus. In effect, ICE was free to pass through the tail of the comet. The ICE spacecraft, a 16-faceted cylindrical drum just over five ft high with a spin axis normal to the ecliptic plane, was designed to encounter the comet at a distance of 0.47 AU from the earth. Scientific instruments on board the spacecraft include: (1) the electron plasma experiment, (2) the vector helium magnetometer, (3) the plasma wave experiment, (4) the radio waves experiment, (5) the plasma ion experiment, (6) the low-energy cosmic ray experiment, and (7) the energetic protons experiment. Targeting error was expected as a result of solar-wind induced plasma tail wagging. Comet interception was planned to be at a distance of 10,000 km from the nucleus.

Von Rosenvinge, T. T.↗

Results of the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (ISOMIP+)

Ocean-driven basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves plays an important role in the mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Ice shelf cavity-resolving ocean models are a valuable tool for understanding ice shelf-ocean interactions and for simulating projections of ice shelf and ocean states under future climate. Designed to assess the current state of ice shelf–ocean modelling, the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, ISOMIP+, consists of 12 ocean model configurations submitted with a common, idealised experimental setup. Here, we focus on the experiments Ocean0–2 (Asay-Davis et al., 2016), which are ocean models with idealised, static ice shelf geometries, but where the ocean reaches a balance with prescribed far-field ocean conditions. Different thermal transfer coefficient values (ranging from 0.011 to 0.2) are used for each model in the melting parameterisation to achieve a common, tuned melt rate since the models cover a range of types of vertical coordinates, ice–ocean boundary layer treatments, and numerical schemes. These model differences lead to spread in the resultant ocean properties, circulation, boundary-layer structure and spatial distribution of melting. We also highlight similarities between models, such as a shared linear relationship across most models between melt rate and overturning and barotropic streamfunctions during the spin-up and spin-down, demonstrating a robust relationship between melt and circulation across models and forcing conditions. The ISOMIP+ results provide a systematic comparison of ice shelf cavity-capable ocean models. However, we also demonstrate the need for realistic ice shelf–ocean model intercomparison projects (some already underway) to assess model biases and inter-model variation against sparse observations. Further research is needed to understand the differences between models and further improve our modelled representations of the ice–ocean boundary layer and ice shelf cavity circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Idealized Short Period Comet Model: Surface Insolation, H2O Flux, Dust Flux and Mantle Evolution

The present cometary activity model integrates feedback processes that involve the transport of heat, gas, and dust, as well as dust mantle development, and includes the effects of latitude, rotation, and spin orientation. Attention is given to the development, structural change, and distribution of dust mantles and their mutual interaction with ice surface temperature and gas and dust production. The results obtained suggest that an initially homogeneous, short period comet with a cosmic dust to water ice ratio, as well as typical orbit, rotation rate, and grain size distribution, would develop only a thin, less than 1 mm cyclic mantle at all points on the nucleus. Most H2O dust histories deduced from brightness data are noted to be in reasonable agreement with the model, allowing for uncertainty in radius and albedo. The exceptional case of Comet Encke is discussed.

Fanale, F. P.↗

Galileo Probe Measurements of Thermal and Solar Radiation Fluxes in the Jovian Atmosphere

The Galileo probe net flux radiometer (NFR) measured radiation fluxes in Jupiter's atmosphere from about 0.44 to 14 bars, using five spectral channels to separate solar and thermal components. Onboard calibration results confirm that the NFR responded to radiation approximately as expected. NFR channels also responded to a superimposed thermal perturbation, which can be approximately removed using blind channel measurements and physical constraints. Evidence for the expected NH3 cloud was seen in the spectral character of spin-induced modulations of the direct solar beam signals. These results are consistent with an overlying cloud of small NH3 ice particles (0.5-0.75 microns in radius) of optical depth 1.5-2 at 0.5 microns. Such a cloud would have so little effect on thermal fluxes that NFR thermal channels provide no additional constraints on its properties. However, evidence for heating near 0.45 bar in the NFR thermal channels would seem to require either an additional opacity source beyond this small-particle cloud, implying a heterogeneous cloud structure to avoid conflicts with solar modulation results, or a change in temperature lapse rate just above the probe measurements. The large thermal flux levels imply water vapor mixing ratios that are only 6% of solar at 10 bars, but possibly increasing with depth, and significantly subsaturated ammonia at pressures less than 3 bars. If deep NH3 mixing ratios at the probe entry site are 3-4 times ground-based inferences, as suggested by probe radio signal attenuation, then only half as much water is needed to match NFR observations. No evidence of a water cloud was seen near the 5-bar level. The 5-microns thermal channel detected the presumed NH4SH cloud base near 1.35 bars. Effects of this cloud were also seen in the solar channel upflux measurements but not in the solar net fluxes, implying that the cloud is a conservative scatterer of sunlight. The minor thermal signature of this cloud is compatible with particle radii near 3 gm, but it cannot rule out smaller particles. Deeper than about 3 bars, solar channels indicate unexpectedly large absorption of sunlight at wavelengths longer than 0.6 microns, which might be due to unaccounted-for absorption by NH3 between 0.65 and 1.5 microns.

Sromovsky, L. A.↗

Galileo Probe Measurements of Thermal and Solar Radiation Fluxes in the Jovian Atmosphere

The Galileo probe net flux radiometer (NFR) measured radiation fluxes in Jupiter's atmosphere from about 0.44 to 14 bars, using five spectral channels to separate solar and thermal components. Onboard calibration results confirm that the NFR responded to radiation approximately as expected. NFR channels also responded to a superimposed thermal perturbation, which can be approximately removed using blind channel measurements and physical constraints. Evidence for the expected NH3 cloud was seen in the spectral character of spin-induced modulations of the direct solar beam signals. These results are consistent with an overlying cloud of small NH3 ice particles (0.5-0.75 microns in radius) of optical depth 1.5-2 at 0.5 microns. Such a cloud would have so little effect on thermal fluxes that NFR thermal channels provide no additional constraints on its properties. However, evidence for heating near 0.45 bar in the NFR thermal channels would seem to require either an additional opacity source beyond this small-particle cloud, implying a heterogeneous-cloud structure to avoid conflicts with solar modulation results, or a change in temperature lapse rate just above the probe measurements. The large thermal flux levels imply water vapor mixing ratios that are only 6% of solar at 10 bars, but possibly increasing with depth, and significantly subsaturated ammonia at pressures less than 3 bars. If deep NH3 mixing ratios at the probe entry site are 3-4 times ground-based inferences, as suggested by probe radio signal attenuation, then only half as much water is needed to match NFR observations. No evidence of a water cloud was seen near the 5-bar level. The 5 microns thermal channel detected the presumed NH4SH cloud base near 1.35 bars. Effects of this cloud were also seen in the solar channel upflux measurements but not in the solar net fluxes, implying that the cloud is a conservative scatterer of sunlight. The minor thermal signature of this cloud is compatible with particle radii near 3 microns, but it cannot rule out smaller particles. Deeper than about 3 bars, solar channels indicate unexpectedly large absorption of sunlight at wavelengths longer than 0.6 microns, which might be due to unaccounted-for absorption by NH3 between 0.65 and 1.5 microns.

Sromovsky, L. A.↗

Systems Engineering Challenges for GSFC Space Science Mission Operations

The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Space Science Mission Operations (SSMO) project currently manages19 missions for the NASA Science Mission Directorate, within the Planetary, Astrophysics, and Heliophysics Divisions. The mission lifespans range from just a few months to more than20 years. The WIND spacecraft, the oldest SSMO mission, was launched in 1994. SSMO spacecraft reside in low earth, geosynchronous,highly elliptical, libration point, lunar, heliocentric,and Martian orbits. SSMO spacecraft range in size from 125kg (Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM)) to over 4000kg (Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope (Fermi)). The attitude modes include both spin and three-axis stabilized, with varying requirements on pointing accuracy. The spacecraft are operated from control centers at Goddard and off-site control centers;the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS)mission were built at Goddard. The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and Wind are operated out of a multi-mission operations center, which will also host several SSMO-managed cubesats in 2017. This paper focuses on the systems engineeringchallenges for such a large and varied fleet of spacecraft.

Spacecraft↗