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At least 163 records · Page 9

Applying Waveform Correlation to Aftershock Sequences Using a Global Sparse Network

Agencies that monitor for underground nuclear tests are interested in techniques that automatically characterize earthquake aftershock sequences to reduce the human analyst effort required to produce high-quality event bulletins. Waveform correlation is effective in detecting similar seismic waveforms from repeating earthquakes, including aftershock sequences. We report the results of an experiment that uses waveform templates recorded by multiple stations of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty International Monitoring System during the first twelve hours after a mainshock to detect and identify aftershocks that occur during the subsequent week. We discuss approaches for station and template selection, threshold setting, and event detection that are specialized for aftershock processing for a sparse, global network. We apply the approaches to three aftershock sequences to evaluate the potential for establishing a set of standards for aftershock waveform correlation processing that can be effective for operational monitoring systems with a sparse network. We compare candidate events detected with our processing methods to the Reviewed Event Bulletin of the International Data Center to develop an intuition about potential reduction in analyst workload.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Korean coastal water depth/sediment and land cover mapping /1:25,000/ by computer analysis of Landsat imagery

Computer analysis was applied to single data Landsat MSS imagery of a coastal area near Seoul, Korea equivalent to a 1:50,000 topographic map, and featuring large dynamic sediment transport processes. Supervised image processing yielded a test classification map containing five water depth/sediment classes, two shoreline/tidal classes and five coastal land cover classes at a scale of 1:25,000 and with a training set accuracy of 76%; the training sets were selected by direct examination of the digitally displayed imagery. The unsupervised ISOCLAS (Senkus, 1976) clustering analysis was performed to assess the relative value of this approach to image classification in areas of sparse or nonexistent ground control. Results indicate that it is feasible to produce quantitative maps for detailed study of dynamic coastal processes given a Landsat image data base at sufficiently frequent time intervals.

Park, K. Y.↗

Weak-form inference for hybrid dynamical systems in ecology

Species subject to predation and environmental threats commonly exhibit variable periods of population boom and bust over long timescales. Understanding and predicting such behaviour, especially given the inherent heterogeneity and stochasticity of exogenous driving factors over short timescales, is an ongoing challenge. A modelling paradigm gaining popularity in the ecological sciences for such multi-scale effects is to couple short-term continuous dynamics to long-term discrete updates. We develop a data-driven method utilizing weak-form equation learning to extract such hybrid governing equations for population dynamics and to estimate the requisite parameters using sparse intermittent measurements of the discrete and continuous variables. The method produces a set of short-term continuous dynamical system equations parametrized by long-term variables, and long-term discrete equations parametrized by short-term variables, allowing direct assessment of interdependencies between the two timescales. We demonstrate the utility of the method on a variety of ecological scenarios and provide extensive tests using models previously derived for epizootics experienced by the North American spongy moth ( Lymantria dispar dispar ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Three-dimensional reconstruction of x-ray emission volumes in magnetized liner inertial fusion from sparse projection data using a learned basis

The ability to visualize x-ray and neutron emission from fusion plasmas in 3D is critical to understand the origin of the complex shapes of the plasmas in experiments. Unfortunately, this remains challenging in experiments that study a fusion concept known as Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) due to a small number of available diagnostic views. Here, we present a basis function-expansion approach to reconstruct MagLIF stagnation plasmas from a sparse set of x-ray emission images. A set of natural basis functions is “learned” from training volumes containing quasi-helical structures whose projections are qualitatively similar to those observed in experimental images. Tests on several known volumes demonstrate that the learned basis outperforms both a cylindrical harmonic basis and a simple voxel basis with additional regularization, according to several metrics. Two-view reconstructions with the learned basis can estimate emission volumes to within 11% and those with three views recover morphology to a high degree of accuracy. The technique is applied to experimental data, producing the first 3D reconstruction of a MagLIF stagnation column from multiple views, providing additional indications of liner instabilities imprinting onto the emitting plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Applying Waveform Correlation to Mining Blasts Using a Global Sparse Network

Agencies that monitor for underground nuclear tests are interested in techniques that automatically characterize mining blasts to reduce the human analyst effort required to produce high-quality event bulletins. Waveform correlation is effective in finding similar waveforms from repeating seismic events, including mining blasts. We report the results of an experiment that uses waveform templates recorded by multiple International Monitoring System stations of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty for up to 10 years prior to detect and identify mining blasts that occur during single weeks of study. We discuss approaches for template selection, threshold setting, and event detection that are specialized for mining blasts and a sparse, global network. We apply the approaches to two different weeks of study for each of two geographic regions, Wyoming and Scandinavia, to evaluate the potential for establishing a set of standards for waveform correlation processing of mining blasts that can be effective for operational monitoring systems with a sparse network. We compare candidate events detected with our processing methods to the Reviewed Event Bulletin of the International Data Centre to develop an intuition about potential reduction in analyst workload.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Applying Waveform Correlation to Mining Blasts Using a Global Sparse Network

Agencies that monitor for underground nuclear tests are interested in techniques that automatically characterize mining blasts to reduce the human analyst effort required to produce high-quality event bulletins. Waveform correlation is effective in finding similar waveforms from repeating seismic events, including mining blasts. We report the results of an experiment that uses waveform templates recorded by multiple International Monitoring System stations of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization for up to 10 years prior to the time period of interest to detect and identify mining blasts that occur during single weeks of study. We discuss approaches for template selection, threshold setting, and event detection that are specialized for mining blasts and a sparse, global network. We apply the approaches to two different weeks of study for each of two geographic regions, Wyoming and Scandinavia, to evaluate the potential for establishing a set of standards for waveform correlation processing of mining blasts that can be effective for operational monitoring systems with a sparse network. We compare candidate events detected with our processing methods to the Reviewed Event Bulletin of the International Data Centre to develop an intuition about potential reduction in analyst workload.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Reconstruction of jointly sparse vectors via manifold optimization

In this paper, we consider the challenge of reconstructing jointly sparse vectors from linear measurements. Firstly, we show that by utilizing the rank of the output data matrix we can reduce the problem to a full column rank case. This result reveals a reduction in the computational complexity of the original problem and enables a simple implementation of joint sparse recovery algorithms for full-rank setting. Secondly, we propose a new method for joint sparse recovery in the form of a non-convex optimization problem on a non-compact Stiefel manifold. In our numerical experiments our method outperforms the commonly used l 2,1 minimization in the sense that much fewer measurements are required for accurate sparse reconstructions. Here, we postulate this approach possesses the desirable rank aware property, that is, being able to take advantage of the rank of the unknown matrix to improve the recovery.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Two-dimensional shape recognition using sparse distributed memory

Researchers propose a method for recognizing two-dimensional shapes (hand-drawn characters, for example) with an associative memory. The method consists of two stages: first, the image is preprocessed to extract tangents to the contour of the shape; second, the set of tangents is converted to a long bit string for recognition with sparse distributed memory (SDM). SDM provides a simple, massively parallel architecture for an associative memory. Long bit vectors (256 to 1000 bits, for example) serve as both data and addresses to the memory, and patterns are grouped or classified according to similarity in Hamming distance. At the moment, tangents are extracted in a simple manner by progressively blurring the image and then using a Canny-type edge detector (Canny, 1986) to find edges at each stage of blurring. This results in a grid of tangents. While the technique used for obtaining the tangents is at present rather ad hoc, researchers plan to adopt an existing framework for extracting edge orientation information over a variety of resolutions, such as suggested by Watson (1987, 1983), Marr and Hildreth (1980), or Canny (1986).

Kanerva, Pentti↗

Hierarchical semi-Markov models with duration-aware dynamics for activity sequences

Residential electricity demand at granular scales is driven by what people do and for how long. Accurately forecasting this demand for applications like microgrid management and demand response therefore requires generative models for activities that can produce realistic daily activity sequences, capturing both the timing and duration of human behavior. This paper develops a generative model of human activity sequences using nationally representative time-use diaries at a 10-min resolution. We use this model to quantify which demographic factors are most critical for improving predictive performance. We propose a hierarchical semi-Markov framework that addresses two key modeling challenges. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov router learns the patterns of “which activity comes next.” Second, a semi-Markov hazard component explicitly models activity durations, capturing “how long” activities realistically last. To ensure statistical stability when data are sparse, the model pools information across related demographic groups and time blocks. The entire framework is trained and evaluated using survey design weights to ensure our findings are representative of the U.S. population. On a held-out test set, we demonstrate that explicitly modeling durations with the hazard component provides a substantial and statistically significant improvement over purely Markovian models. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a clear hierarchy of demographic factors: Sex, Day-Type, and Household Size provide the largest predictive gains, while Region and Season, though important for energy calculations, contribute little to predicting the activity sequence itself. The result is an interpretable and robust generator of synthetic activity traces, providing a high-fidelity foundation for downstream energy systems modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Measurement of charge state distributions using a scintillation screen

Absolute cross sections measured using electromagnetic devices to separate and detect heavy recoiling ions need to be corrected for charge state fractions. Accurate prediction of charge state distributions using theoretical models is not always a possibility, especially in energy and mass regions where data is sparse. As such, it is often necessary to measure charge state fractions directly. In this paper we present a novel method of using a scintillation screen along with a CMOS camera to image the charge dispersed beam after a set of magnetic dipoles. A measurement of the charge state distribution for 88 Sr passing through a natural carbon foil is performed. Using a Bayesian model to extract statistically meaningful uncertainties from these images, we find agreement between the new method and a more traditional method using Faraday cups. Additional future work is need to better understand systematic uncertainties. Our technique offers a viable method to measure charge state distributions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Active learning of reactive Bayesian force fields applied to heterogeneous catalysis dynamics of H/Pt

Abstract Atomistic modeling of chemically reactive systems has so far relied on either expensive ab initio methods or bond-order force fields requiring arduous parametrization. Here, we describe a Bayesian active learning framework for autonomous “on-the-fly” training of fast and accurate reactive many-body force fields during molecular dynamics simulations. At each time-step, predictive uncertainties of a sparse Gaussian process are evaluated to automatically determine whether additional ab initio training data are needed. We introduce a general method for mapping trained kernel models onto equivalent polynomial models whose prediction cost is much lower and independent of the training set size. As a demonstration, we perform direct two-phase simulations of heterogeneous H 2 turnover on the Pt(111) catalyst surface at chemical accuracy. The model trains itself in three days and performs at twice the speed of a ReaxFF model, while maintaining much higher fidelity to DFT and excellent agreement with experiment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Guidelines for Publicly Archiving Terrestrial Model Data to Enhance Usability, Intercomparison, and Synthesis

Scientific communities are increasingly publishing data to evaluate, accredit, and build on published research. However, guidelines for curating data for publication are sparse for model-related research, limiting the usability of archived simulation data. In particular, there are no established guidelines for archiving data related to terrestrial models that simulate land processes and their coupled interactions with climate. Terrestrial modelers have a unique set of challenges when publishing data due to the diversity of scientific domains, research questions, and the types and scales of simulations. Researchers in the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) projects use a variety of multiscale models to advance robust predictions of terrestrial and subsurface ecosystem processes. Here, we synthesize archiving needs for data associated with different DOE models, and provide guidelines for publishing terrestrial model data components following FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) principles. The guidelines recommend archiving model inputs and testing data used in final simulation runs along with associated codes, workflow scripts, and metadata in public repositories. Researchers should consider archiving model outputs if they are within the storage limits of the repository. We also provide considerations for how to bundle files into different data publications with citable digital object identifiers. Finally, we identify repository features and tools that would enable storage and reuse of model data. Given the diversity of DOE terrestrial models, these guidelines are transferable to other model types and will enable efficient reuse of simulation data for purposes such as model intercomparisons, initialization, benchmarking, synthesis, and comparisons with field observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A detailed gravimetric geoid of North America, Eurasia, and Australia

A detailed gravimetric geoid of North America, the North Atlantic, Eurasia, and Australia computed from a combination of satellite-derived and surface 1 x 1 gravity data, is presented. Using a consistent set of parameters, this geoid is referenced to an absolute datum. The precision of this detailed geoid is + or - 2 meters in the continents but may be in the range of 5 to 7 meters in those areas where data was sparse. Comparisons of the detailed gravimetric geoid with results of Rice for the United States, Bomford and Fischer in Eurasia, and Mather in Australia are presented. Comparisons are also presented with geoid heights from satellite solutions for geocentric station coordinates in North America, the Caribbean, Europe, and Australia.

Vincent, S.↗

Linear and nonlinear trending and prediction for AVHRR time series data

The variability of AVHRR calibration coefficient in time was analyzed using algorithms of linear and non-linear time series analysis. Specifically we have used the spline trend modeling, autoregressive process analysis, incremental neural network learning algorithm and redundancy functional testing. The analysis performed on available AVHRR data sets revealed that (1) the calibration data have nonlinear dependencies, (2) the calibration data depend strongly on the target temperature, (3) both calibration coefficients and the temperature time series can be modeled, in the first approximation, as autonomous dynamical systems, (4) the high frequency residuals of the analyzed data sets can be best modeled as an autoregressive process of the 10th degree. We have dealt with a nonlinear identification problem and the problem of noise filtering (data smoothing). The system identification and filtering are significant problems for AVHRR data sets. The algorithms outlined in this study can be used for the future EOS missions. Prediction and smoothing algorithms for time series of calibration data provide a functional characterization of the data. Those algorithms can be particularly useful when calibration data are incomplete or sparse.

Smid, J.↗

Airborne Observations of the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Tropospheric Carbon Dioxide during the INTEX-B Campaign

The Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-North America (INTEX-NA) is an international field campaign envisioned to investigate the transport and transformation of gases and aerosols on transcontinental/intercontinental scales and assess their impact on air quality and climate. Phase B (INTEX-B) of the mission was conducted during a 10- week period from March 1 to May 15, 2006 and focused initially on pollution outflow from the Mexico City Metropolitan Area, later addressing the transport of pollution from Asia to North America during springtime meteorological conditions. During the deployment, fast-response (1-s resolution) CO2 measurements were recorded aboard the NASA DC-8 providing valuable regional-scale information on carbon sources and sinks over sparsely sampled areas of North America and adjacent ocean basins. When coupled with the enormously sophisticated chemistry payload on the DC-8, these measurements collectively afford extremely powerful multi-tracer constraints for carbon source/sink attribution. Preliminary examination of the two data sets from the INTEX-B campaign, acquired one month apart, reveals not only the influence of the CO2 seasonal cycle, but also the preponderance of human population and industrial activity in the northern hemisphere. In this presentation, a synergy of the ensemble of airborne and surface observations, bottomup emission inventories, as well as transport history are invoked in a GIS framework to elucidate the source/sink processes reflected in the observations. The airborne CO2 data, along with simultaneous surface measurements (e.g. NOAA ESRL), are examined to establish the vertical distribution and variability of CO2 as a function of location. The role of localized sources, long-range transport, the biosphere, stratospheric exchange, and dynamical processes on the CO2 spatial variability observed throughout the tropospheric column will be discussed.

Vay, Stephanie A.↗

Searches for New Physics With Muon Conversion at Fermilab and Triboson Production at the LHC

We report on several efforts to search for physics beyond the standard model of particle physics at broad energy scales. The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for charged lepton flavor violation via the muon to electron conversion process, which is suppressed in the Standard Model. Mu2e will be operated at a low energy, yet can probe New Physics at very high mass scales (O(1e3 - 1e4 ) TeV). At high energies, the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC continues to deliver an impressive suite of Standard Model measurements and limits on a variety of New Physics signatures. Mu2e is under construction and slated to collect its first physics data in the coming years. This thesis describes work done during the construction phase of Mu2e and focuses on two critical areas: magnetic field modeling and statistical analysis. We describe a novel method for field modeling which we validate using a simulated dataset representing the expected magnetic field in the Detector Solenoid. This method blends a standard least-squares fitting technique that utilizes physically motivated analytical model functions with a novel physics informed network that is constructed to obey Maxwell’s equations. We show the technique can model the field with an accuracy of 10−7 despite the presence of injected noise in the pseudo-measurements at the 10−5 level. We then present preliminary results of the calibration of 3D Hall probes at the sub-10−4 level. These probes will be used to directly measure the Mu2e Detector Solenoid magnetic field on a sparse grid; these measurements serve as the input to the field model fitting. Finally, we describe the first implementation of both an unbinned shape analysis and a Bayesian interpretation applied to Mu2e pseudo-data. Up to 20% tighter limits can be set by the shape analysis compared to a standard cut & count analysis. The AlCap experiment collected data at PSI in 2015 to measure several important quantities related to nuclear muon capture on an aluminum target, which is a significant background process for Mu2e. The neutron emission from muon capture can introduce background hits in the Mu2e detectors and can increase radiation damage in various elements of the apparatus. We present measurements of the neutron group fluence and mean neutron multiplicity for muon capture on aluminum nuclei. Finally, we discuss an analysis of triboson production at CMS using an Effective Field Theory framework. Standard Model triboson production, which was first observed at CMS in 2020, has a relatively small cross section and provides direct access to both anomalous triple gauge couplings and quartic gauge couplings. These couplings, interpreted in the Standard Model Effective Field Theory, are studied in the present work. We target the boosted regime where the background rate is low and yields are enhanced when dimension-6 and dimension-8 Wilson coefficients are non-zero. We do not observe an excess in the data and therefore set bounds on the Wilson coefficients. For dimension-6 coefficients the tightest observed (expected) bounds are set on cW /Λ2 where Λ is the mass scale of new physics; the bounds are [−0.13, 0.12] TeV−2 ([−0.12, 0.12] TeV−2 ) at 95% CL. The tightest bounds in dimension-8 are set on fT,0 / Λ4 ; the observed (expected) bounds at 95% CL are [−0.63, 0.69] TeV−4 ([−0.54, 0.62] TeV−4 ). Additional results are presented which include scenarios where multiple Wilson coefficients are non-zero, the application of signal model clipping to address unitarity violation in Effective Field Theories, and a novel template fit developed for easier reinterpretation of our results.

Kampa, Cole Erik [Northwestern U. (main)] (ORCID:0↗

Upper-Stratospheric Ozone Trends 1979-1998

Extensive analyses of ozone observations between 1978 and 1998 measured by Dobson Umkehr, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) I and II, and Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) and (SBUV)/2 indicate continued significant ozone decline throughout the extratropical upper stratosphere from 30-45 km altitude. The maximum annual linear decline of -0.8 +/- 0.2 %/yr(2sigma) occurs at 40 km and is well described in terms of a linear decline modulated by the 11-year solar variation. The minimum decline of -0.110.1% yr-1(2o) occurs at 25 km in midlatitudes, with remarkable symmetry between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres at 40 km altitude. Midlatitude upper-stratospheric zonal trends exhibit significant seasonal variation (+/- 30% in the Northern Hemisphere, +/- 40% in the Southern Hemisphere) with the most negative trends of -1.2%/yr occurring in the winter. Significant seasonal trends of -0.7 to -0.9%/yr occur at 40 km in the tropics between April and September. Subjecting the statistical models used to calculate the ozone trends to intercomparison tests on a variety of common data sets yields results that indicate the standard deviation between trends estimated by 10 different statistical models is less than 0.1%/yr in the annual-mean trend for SAGE data and less than 0.2%/yr in the most demanding conditions (seasons with irregular, sparse data) [World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1998]. These consistent trend results between statistical models together with extensive consistency between the independent measurement-system trend observations by Dobson Umkehr, SAGE I and II, and SBUV and SBUV/2 provide a high degree of confidence in the accuracy of the declining ozone amounts reported here. Additional details of ozone trend results from 1978 to 1996 (2 years shorter than reported here) along with lower-stratospheric and tropospheric ozone trends, extensive intercomparisons to assess relative instrument drifts, and retrieval algorithm details are given by WMO [1998].

Newchurch, M. J.↗

Data-driven analysis of dipole strength functions using artificial neural networks

Here, we present a data-driven analysis of dipole strength functions across the nuclear chart, employing an artificial neural network to model nuclear dipole responses. We train the network on a dataset of experimentally measured dipole strength functions for 216 different nuclei. To assess its predictive capability, we test the trained model on an additional set of 10 new nuclei, where experimental data exist. We demonstrate that the artificial neural network not only accurately reproduces known data but also identifies potential inconsistencies in experimental datasets, indicating which results may warrant further review or possible rejection. For nuclei where experimental data are sparse or unavailable, the network confirms theoretical calculations, reinforcing its utility as a predictive tool in nuclear physics. Finally, utilizing the predicted electric dipole polarizability, we extract the value of the symmetry energy at saturation density and find it consistent with results from the literature.

artificial neural networks↗