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At least 163 records · Page 9

Phase noise effects on turbulent weather radar spectrum parameter estimation

Accurate weather spectrum moment estimation is important in the use of weather radar for hazardous windshear detection. The effect of the stable local oscillator (STALO) instability (jitter) on the spectrum moment estimation algorithm is investigated. Uncertainty in the stable local oscillator will affect both the transmitted signal and the received signal since the STALO provides transmitted and reference carriers. The proposed approach models STALO phase jitter as it affects the complex autocorrelation of the radar return. The results can therefore by interpreted in terms of any source of system phase jitter for which the model is appropriate and, in particular, may be considered as a cumulative effect of all radar system sources.

Lee, Jonggil↗

A Parameter Identification Method for Helicopter Noise Source Identification and Physics-Based Semi-Empirical Modeling

A new physics-based parameter identification method for rotor harmonic noise sources is developed using an acoustic inverse simulation technique. This new method allows for the identification of individual rotor harmonic noise sources and allows them to be characterized in terms of their individual non-dimensional governing parameters. This new method is applied to both wind tunnel measurements and ground noise measurements of two-bladed rotors. The method is shown to match the parametric trends of main rotor Blade-Vortex Interaction (BVI) noise, allowing accurate estimates of BVI noise to be made for operating conditions based on a small number of measurements taken at different operating conditions.

Greenwood, Eric, II↗

Ammonia and Methane Dairy Emission Plumes in the San Joaquin Valley of California from Individual Feedlot to Regional Scales

Agricultural ammonia (NH3) emissions are highly uncertain, with high spatiotemporal variability and a lack of widespread in situ measurements. Regional NH3 emission estimates using mass balance or emission ratio approaches are uncertain due to variable NH3 sources and sinks as well as unknown plume correlations with other dairy source tracers. We characterize the spatial distributions of NH3 and methane (CH4) dairy plumes using in situ surface and airborne measurements in the Tulare dairy feedlot region of the San Joaquin Valley, California, during the NASA Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality 2013 field campaign. Surface NH3 and CH4 mixing ratios exhibit large variability with maxima localized downwind of individual dairy feedlots. The geometric mean NH3:CH4 enhancement ratio derived from surface measurements is 0.15 +/- 0.03 ppmv ppmv−1. Individual dairy feedlots with spatially distinct NH3 and CH4 source pathways led to statistically significant correlations between NH3 and CH4 in 68% of the 69 downwind plumes sampled. At longer sampling distances, the NH3:CH4 enhancement ratio decreases 20-30%, suggesting the potential for NH3 deposition as a loss term for plumes within a few kilometers downwind of feedlots. Aircraft boundary layer transect measurements directly above surface mobile measurements in the dairy region show comparable gradients and geometric mean enhancement ratios within measurement uncertainties, even when including NH3 partitioning to submicron particles. Individual NH3 and CH4 plumes sampled at close proximity where losses are minimal are not necessarily correlated due to lack of mixing and distinct source pathways. Our analyses have important implications for constraining NH3 sink and plume variability influences on regional NH3 emission estimates and for improving NH3 emission inventory spatial allocations.

Miller, David J.↗

Asymptotic Giant Branch stars as a source of short-lived radioactive nuclei in the solar nebula

We carried out a theoretical evaluation of the contribution of Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) stars to some short-lived (10(exp 6) less than or equal to Tau-bar less than or equal to 2 x 10(exp 7) yr) isotopes in the Interstellar Medium (ISM) and in the early solar system using stellar model calculations for thermally pulsing evolutionary phases of low-mass stars. The yields of s-process nuclei in the convective He-shell for different neutron exposures tau(sub 0) were obtained, and AGB stars were shown to produce several radioactive nuclei (especially Pd-107, Pb-205, Fe-60, Zr-93, Tc-99, Cs-135, and Hf-182) in diferent amounts. Assuming either contamination of the solar nebula from a single AGB star or models for continuous injection and mixing from many stars into the ISM, we calculate the ratios of radioactive to stable nuclei at the epoch of the Sun's formation. The dilution factor between the AGB ejecta and the early solar system matter is obtained by matching the observed Pd-107/Pd-108 and depends on the value of tau(sub 0). It is found that small masses M(sub He) of He-shell material (10(exp -4)-10(exp -7) solar mass) enriched in s-process nuclei are sufficient to contaminate 1 solar mass of the ISM to produce the Pd-107 found in the early solar system. Predictions are made for all of the other radioactive isotopes. The optimal model to explain several observed radioactive species at different states of the proto-solar nebula involves a single AGB star with a low neutron exposure (tau(sub 0) = 0.03 mbarn(sup -1)) which contaminated the cloud with a dilution factor of M(sub He)/solar mass approximately 1.5 x 10(exp -4). This will also contribute newly synthesized stable s-process nuclei in the amount of approximately 10(exp -4) of their abundances already present in the proto-solar cloud. Variations in the degree of homogenization (approximately 30%) of the injected material may account for some of the small general isotopic anomalies found in meteorites. It is also found that Fe-60 is produced in small but significant quantities that may be sufficient to explain the observations if the time elapsed delta from the contamination of the ISM to the formation of protoplanetary bodies is not higher than delta = 5 x 10(exp 6) yr. If delta is longer, up to 10 x 10(exp 6) yr, this would require the single AGB star to experience enhanced neutron densities (n(sub n) approximately 3 x 10(exp 9)n/cu cm) in the s-processing zone in order to compensate for the branching at Fe-59. The alternative model of long-term continuous ejection of matter from many AGB stars does not appear to match the observations. We also estimate the Al-26 production from the H-shell and find that the Al-26 abundance in the early solar system may be readily explained in a self-consistent manner. Moreover, Al-26 from AGB stars may contribute substantially to the galactic Al-26 gamma-source, while no significant gamma-flux from Co-60 (deriving from Fe-60 decay) is to be expected.

Wasserburg, G. J.↗

Magnetic storm dynamics of the thermosphere

A theoretical study of the Dst component of magnetic storms is presented. The dynamic characteristics are found significantly different for Joule dissipation and electron precipitation, leading to the conclusion that the former is probably the predominant heat source for the upper thermosphere. Composition measurements on OGO-6, which reveal markedly different characteristics in N2, O and He, can be explained on the basis of energy advection and diffusive mass transport by thermospheric winds. Essential features in the F2-region response are explicable in terms of these dynamic processes. Electric field induced motions are estimated and it is concluded that resultant adiabatic heating could be significant.

Mayr, H. G.↗

GES DISC Long-Term Data Analysis Services Using AIRS and CMS Methane Data as an Example

NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) archives and distributes rich collections of data on atmospheric greenhouse gases from multiple satellite missions and model results. Among those greenhouse gases, atmospheric methane is a powerful greenhouse gas contributing ~0.5 (W/m^2) to total radiative forcing, and its concentration has increased by about 150% since 1750. Observations or estimates of methane emissions typically have sparse spatial and temporal coverage. The lack of comprehensive spatial and temporal coverage of methane source and sink observations has made analyzing atmospheric methane trends challenging. In this study the GES DISC aims to provide the community with the resources to better understand changes in atmospheric methane concentrations and the underlying causes. We will utilize methane datasets from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) retrieved methane concentration and three Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) methane emission datasets (in regions of North America, Canada, and Mexico) to compare AIRS methane growth with corresponding CMS regional methane emissions. Comparisons of AIRS methane growth rates and CMS methane emissions suggests wetland emissions may impact methane growth rate trends over North America. As the record for CMS methane data is extended, both datasets can be used in conjunction to better understand impacts on atmospheric methane trends. GES DISCs new anomaly tool can also be used on select datasets to further quantify trends in atmospheric greenhouse gases.

long-term data analysis↗

Column Number Density Expressions Through M = 0 and M = 1 Point Source Plumes Along Any Straight Path

Providers of payloads carried aboard the International Space Station must conduct analyses to demonstrate that any planned gaseous venting events generate no more than a certain level of material that may interfere with optical measurements from other experiments or payloads located nearby. This requirement is expressed in terms of a maximum column number density (CND). Depending on the level of rarefaction, such venting may be characterized by effusion for low flow rates, or by a sonic distribution at higher levels. Since the relative locations of other sensitive payloads are often unknown because they may refer to future projects, this requirement becomes a search for the maximum CND along any path.In another application, certain astronomical observations make use of CND to estimate light attenuation from a distant star through gaseous plumes, such as the Fermi Bubbles emanating from the vicinity of the black hole at the center of our Milky Way galaxy, in order to infer the amount of material being expelled via those plumes.This paper presents analytical CND expressions developed for general straight paths based upon a free molecule point source model for steady effusive flow and for a distribution fitted to model flows from a sonic orifice. Among other things, in this Mach number range it is demonstrated that the maximum CND from a distant location occurs along the path parallel to the source plane that intersects the plume axis. For effusive flows this value is exactly twice the CND found along the ray originating from that point of intersection and extending to infinity along the plumes axis. For sonic plumes this ratio is reduced to about 43.

Venting↗

An Empirical Temperature Variance Source Model in Heated Jets

An acoustic analogy approach is implemented that models the sources of jet noise in heated jets. The equivalent sources of turbulent mixing noise are recognized as the differences between the fluctuating and Favre-averaged Reynolds stresses and enthalpy fluxes. While in a conventional acoustic analogy only Reynolds stress components are scrutinized for their noise generation properties, it is now accepted that a comprehensive source model should include the additional entropy source term. Following Goldstein s generalized acoustic analogy, the set of Euler equations are divided into two sets of equations that govern a non-radiating base flow plus its residual components. When the base flow is considered as a locally parallel mean flow, the residual equations may be rearranged to form an inhomogeneous third-order wave equation. A general solution is written subsequently using a Green s function method while all non-linear terms are treated as the equivalent sources of aerodynamic sound and are modeled accordingly. In a previous study, a specialized Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) solver was implemented to compute the variance of thermal fluctuations that determine the enthalpy flux source strength. The main objective here is to present an empirical model capable of providing a reasonable estimate of the stagnation temperature variance in a jet. Such a model is parameterized as a function of the mean stagnation temperature gradient in the jet, and is evaluated using commonly available RANS solvers. The ensuing thermal source distribution is compared with measurements as well as computational result from a dedicated RANS solver that employs an enthalpy variance and dissipation rate model. Turbulent mixing noise predictions are presented for a wide range of jet temperature ratios from 1.0 to 3.20.

Khavaran, Abbas↗

Chapter 10 - Remote Sensing Measurements of Aerosol Properties

Satellite instruments have proven especially capable at monitoring the quantity of airborne particles in columns of atmosphere, globally. This chapter describes the principles of satellite measurements and retrieval algorithms, and surveys current instruments and their capabilities. We outline the issues associated with retrieval algorithms, such as surface characterization and aerosol proximity to clouds, and the challenges with interpretation of the results. The relationship between measured aerosol properties and climate-relevant aerosol properties simulated in models is outlined, as well as how measurements are used to evaluate models. Most space-based aerosol instruments are passive sensors that measure reflected sunlight at multiple wavelengths, some at multiple viewing angles. A few are active sensors that send out their own laser light and measure the returned signal. Except when clouds are present, the excess amount of light scattered back to space, beyond that expected from the surface and atmospheric gas, is attributed to aerosol. Satellite measurements are used in many ways in aerosol research. They often provide the only method for monitoring hazardous phenomena such as major wildfire and volcanic eruption plumes, especially in remote areas. Stable, long-term, near-global-scale satellite data records make it possible to identify regional and global aerosol trends. Aerosol radiative effects on climate can be quantified on a near-global scale and used to estimate the strength of aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions as well as to evaluate climate model simulations of these interactions. Aerosol-type mapping from satellite imagery is helpful for source attribution, model validation, and to constrain particle light-absorption properties that are essential for radiative forcing calculations. The range of aerosol properties retrieved from satellite observations has grown considerably since the first global estimates of aerosol optical depth (τ a) over ocean were made in the late 1970s. Methods for retrieving particle size and light-absorption properties were explored in the 1990s using multispectral, multi-angle observations, and polarization in visible and near-infrared wavelengths. Sensitivity to particle light absorption, primarily from black or brown carbon content, improved with the inclusion of UV channels, and sensitivity to very thin aerosol layers in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere was advanced with the use of limb-sounding instruments and active sensors. There are limitations to every measurement technique, including satellite aerosol remote sensing. For wide-swath, passive instruments, aerosol retrievals near clouds can present substantial challenges as far as 15 km away due to cloud-scattered light contaminating the signal. In nearly all cases, retrievals over bright snow and ice surfaces are precluded because surface reflectance uncertainties can overwhelm the aerosol signal. Similarly, meteorological cloud is identified and masked out where possible. Data from passive sensors also lack vertical resolution except those that view toward the limb or where multi-angle imagery is acquired over plumes from wildfires, erupting volcanoes, and wind-blown dust. Yet, passive sensors provide vastly more coverage than the active instruments that mitigate these issues. Particle microphysical information is qualitative from all remote sensing techniques, relying on proxies to infer particle composition, hygroscopicity, and the amount of light-absorbing material. Further, particles smaller than about 200 nm diameter cannot be distinguished from atmospheric gas molecules with remote sensing, which hinders studies of cloud condensation nuclei and their effects on clouds. Most satellite instruments dedicated to aerosol observations are in low-Earth, near-polar, sun-synchronous orbits, which means they cross the equator at the same local time each day. Most are set on cycles that repeat approximately every 16 days, which makes it difficult to monitor aerosol evolution locally. Geostationary satellites make it possible to observe changes occurring from minutes to hours over regions up to 8000 km in size, but lack coverage of high latitudes, and often provide more limited constraints on aerosol properties. Ground-truth data are vital for satellite aerosol-retrieval validation. The AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) of sun photometers was created in 1993 and has become an established global network of over 350 instruments for validating satellite measurements. The network, as well as global networks of ground-based lidars, solar flux radiometers and other sun photometers, are widely used for evaluating global satellite retrievals and model simulations. NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) program beginning in 1999 led to improvements in reliability, spatial resolution, and spectral resolution (and hence, to improved particle size discrimination and light absorption properties). Satellite payloads include advanced broad-swath and multi-angle imagers, along with the first space-based active sensor focused largely on long-term aerosol monitoring. Since about 2002, Europe's SENTINEL and operational meteorological satellite fleets are also providing sustained aerosol observations, with planned continuation until at least 2030. Satellite remote sensing instruments offer valuable data for evaluating aerosol representations in global climate models. They have been used to assess aerosol optical and physical properties, trends and distributions, and are applied increasingly as direct model constraints in data assimilation to create global aerosol reanalysis products. Aerosol optical depth is the most common quantity adopted for routine model evaluation, including multiwavelength data to loosely constrain particle-size distributions. These evaluations of multiple models have revealed general biases in their regional aerosol amounts and seasonal patterns of transport and removal. Although satellite measurements have near-global coverage, substantial errors can be introduced into the model observation comparison unless attention is paid to spatial and temporal collocation, cloud screening, subgrid-scale variability, and measurement uncertainties that vary with retrieval conditions.

aerosol properties↗

An analysis of errors in special sensor microwave imager evaporation estimates over the global oceans

The method proposed by Liu (1984) is used to estimate monthly averaged evaporation over the global oceans from 1 yr of special sensor microwave imager (SDSM/I) data. Intercomparisons involving SSM/I and in situ data are made over a wide range of oceanic conditions during August 1987 and February 1988 to determine the source of errors in the evaporation estimates. The most significant spatially coherent evaporation errors are found to come from estimates of near-surface specific humidity, q. Systematic discrepancies of over 2 g/kg are found in the tropics, as well as in the middle and high latitudes. The q errors are partitioned into contributions from the parameterization of q in terms of the columnar water vapor, i.e., the Liu q/W relationship, and from the retrieval algorithm for W. The effects of W retrieval errors are found to be smaller over most of the global oceans and due primarily to the implicitly assumed vertical structures of temperature and specific humidity on which the physically based SSM/I retrievals of W are based.

Esbensen, S. K.↗

Rotor noise due to inflow turbulence.

The interaction of turbulent velocity fluctuations of the inflow with rotor blades and the resulting acoustic radiation is examined in terms of: dipole sources due to blade loading, monopole sources due to thickness of the rotating blades, and quadrupole sources due to velocity fluctuations in the flow region. Depending upon the length and time scales of the turbulence, sufficient number of blades may interact with a coherent eddy to radiate noise with discrete peaks at blade passing frequency and its harmonics. Theoretical estimates of acoustic radiation to on-axis points from a typical subsonic rotor are presented, and it is noted that the discrete tone noise is primarily from dipole radiation. Discrete tone noise levels observed in narrow band analysis of test data show reasonable agreement with analytical predictions.

Rao, G. V. R.↗

Elevation Changes of Ice Caps in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

Precise repeat airborne laser surveys were conducted over the major ice caps in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago in the spring of 1995 and 2000 in order to measure elevation changes in the region. Our measurements reveal thinning at lower elevations (below 1600 m) on most of the ice caps and glaciers, but either very little change or thickening at higher elevations in the ice cap accumulation zones. Recent increases in precipitation in the area can account for the slight thickening where it was observed, but not for the thinning at lower elevations. For the northern ice caps on the Queen Elizabeth Islands, thinning was generally less than 0.5 m/yr , which is consistent with what would be expected from the warm temperature anomalies in the region for the 5-year period between surveys and appears to be a continuation of a trend that began in the mid 1980s. Further south, however, on the Barnes and Penny ice caps on Baffin Island, this thinning was much more pronounced at over 1 m/yr in the lower elevations. Here temperature anomalies were very small, and the thinning at low elevations far exceeds any associated enhanced ablation. The observations on Barnes, and perhaps Penny are consistent with the idea that the observed thinning is part of a much longer term deglaciation, as has been previously suggested for Barnes Ice Cap. Based on the regional relationships between elevation and elevation-change in our data, the 1995-2000 mass balance for the region is estimated to be 25 cu km/yr of ice, which corresponds to a sea level increase of 0.064 mm/ yr . This places it among the more significant sources of eustatic sea level rise, though not as substantial as Greenland ice sheet, Alaskan glaciers, or the Patagonian ice fields.

Abdalati, W.↗

Correcting STIS CCD Point-Source Spectra for CTE Loss

We review the on-orbit spectroscopic observations that are being used to characterize the Charge Transfer Efficiency (CTE) of the STIS CCD in spectroscopic mode. We parameterize the CTE-related loss for spectrophotometry of point sources in terms of dependencies on the brightness of the source, the background level, the signal in the PSF outside the standard extraction box, and the time of observation. Primary constraints on our correction algorithm are provided by measurements of the CTE loss rates for simulated spectra (images of a tungsten lamp taken through slits oriented along the dispersion axis) combined with estimates of CTE losses for actual spectra of spectrophotometric standard stars in the first order CCD modes. For point-source spectra at the standard reference position at the CCD center, CTE losses as large as 30% are corrected to within approx.1% RMS after application of the algorithm presented here, rendering the Poisson noise associated with the source detection itself to be the dominant contributor to the total flux calibration uncertainty.

Goudfrooij, Paul↗

Prospects for UT1 Measurements from VLBI Intensive Sessions

Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) Intensives are one-hour single baseline sessions to provide Universal Time (UT1) in near real-time up to a delay of three days if a site is not e-transferring the observational data. Due to the importance of UT1 estimates for the prediction of Earth orientation parameters, as well as any kind of navigation on Earth or in space, there is not only the need to improve the timeliness of the results but also their accuracy. We identify the asymmetry of the tropospheric delays as the major error source, and we provide two strategies to improve the results, in particular of those Intensives which include the station Tsukuba in Japan with its large tropospheric variation. We find an improvement when (1) using ray-traced delays from a numerical weather model, and (2) when estimating tropospheric gradients within the analysis of Intensive sessions. The improvement is shown in terms of reduction of rms of length-of-day estimates w.r.t. those derived from Global Positioning System observations

Boehm, Johannes↗

Hydrogen emission from Jupiter: Hydrogen emission from sunlit atmosphere of Saturn

Successful IUE observations of the equatorial sunlit atmosphere of Jupiter and Saturn have been obtained. Spectra containing atomic and molecular hydrogen and solar reflection continuum emissions have been analyzed, with the purpose of determining the long term temporal behavior of the electroglow process. Quantitative estimates have been established for the first time using a model analysis of the short wavelength region of the spectrum. Both systems show varying degrees of long term variability in hydrogen emission rate, but the time scale is too short to determine whether there is a dependence on solar cycle activity. As part of the emission modeling program, a preliminary point source spreading function for the IUE SWP instrument has been established, suggesting a wavelength dependence in spectral line width different from previous analyses. Further IUE observations are planned for both Jupiter and Saturn.

Shemansky, D. E.↗

On fast X-ray rotators with long-term periodicities

The support of previous SAS 3 spacecraft observations by new data gathered by the Monitor Proportional Counter aboard the HEAO 2 spacecraft indicates that the pulse period history of the 13.5 sec-pulsing X-ray source LMC X-4 is consistent with standard accretion and torque models only if LMC X-4 is a fast rotator for which the accretion torques nearly cancel. This result leads to a neutron star magnetic field strength estimate of about 1.2 x 10 to the 13th G. Strong evidence is noted for Her X-1's status as a fast rotator, while SMC X-1 is probably an intermediate-to-fast rotator. In the context of slaved disk models for these objects, it is noted that the precession periods expected for the companion stars are significantly longer than the observed 1-2 month time scales; slaved disk models are thereby undermined.

Naranan, S.↗

Gridded National Inventory of U.S. Methane Emissions

We present a gridded inventory of US anthropogenic methane emissions with 0.1 deg x 0.1 deg spatial resolution, monthly temporal resolution, and detailed scale dependent error characterization. The inventory is designed to be onsistent with the 2016 US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Emissionsand Sinks (GHGI) for 2012. The EPA inventory is available only as national totals for different source types. We use a widerange of databases at the state, county, local, and point source level to disaggregate the inventory and allocate the spatial and temporal distribution of emissions for individual source types. Results show large differences with the EDGAR v4.2 global gridded inventory commonly used as a priori estimate in inversions of atmospheric methane observations. We derive grid-dependent error statistics for individual source types from comparison with the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) regional inventory for Northeast Texas. These error statistics are independently verified by comparison with the California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Measurement (CALGEM) grid-resolved emission inventory. Our gridded, time-resolved inventory provides an improved basis for inversion of atmospheric methane observations to estimate US methane emissions and interpret the results in terms of the underlying processes.

Methane↗

Predicting Airport Runway Configurations for Decision-Support Using Supervised Learning

One of the most challenging tasks for air traffic controllers is runway configuration management (RCM). It deals with the optimal selection of runways to operate on (for arrivals and departures) based on traffic, surface wind speed, wind direction, other environmental variables, noise constraints, and several other airport-specific factors. It affects the efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS) and both surface and airspace operations can benefit from better understanding future runway configurations. In this paper, we present a comprehensive implementation of predictive models for runway configuration estimation from large volumes of historical data. Specifically, operational data from two full years (2018 and 2019) is collected, analyzed, and fused together to build the data product used in this work. The data set differs from prior work in the field in terms of its scope, resolution, and variety of factors collected and considered. Meteorological data is collected from two different sources – current weather conditions from METAR (Meteorological Terminal Aviation Routine Weather Report) and forecast weather conditions from Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP). Operational data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) related to scheduled and actual number of arrivals and departures, average taxi times, etc. are collected. NASA’s Sherlock Data Warehouse is used to identify critical information such as go-arounds, and other events that might impact RCM decision-making. All data is collected and aggregated over 15-minute intervals throughout the two years. This provides a resolution like the timescales that might be necessary for runway configuration management decision-making. A variety of supervised learning algorithms are tested including Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, etc. including tuning of the model hyperparameters. The modeling process is applied and presented on two representative U.S. airports – Charlotte Douglas International Airport (KCLT) and Denver International Airport (KDEN). The two airports present different levels of complexity in terms of the total number of configurations used and provide a balanced perspective on the generalizability of the developed approach to other airports in the NAS. Initial results are promising (F1 score of 0.91 at KCLT and 0.83 at KDEN) for data in the test set. The final paper will contain a comprehensive comparison between different models and model building strategies as well as further refined results. Most important predictors for each airport will be identified along with a discussion and recommendations on adapting the framework to other scenarios.

Tejas G Puranik↗