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At least 163 records · Page 9

MADWEC Techno-Economic Analysis: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report

The objective of this project was for the facility to conduct a techno-economic assessment of the Maximal Asymmetric Drag Wave Energy Converter (MADWEC), developed by the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth (UMass Dartmouth), used for powering remote monitoring and AUV charging systems compared to other existing power supply options. The assessment estimates capital expenditures (CapEx), operational expenditures (OpEx), and power performance for 18 scenarios with the purpose of identifying key cost drivers, comparing total system cost, and comparing the power performance of the power supply options in terms of required installed capacity and estimated theoretical annual energy performance. The scenarios include two end-uses: (1) AUV charging and (2) offshore remote monitoring); three power sources: (1) MADWEC), (2) photovoltaic (PV) solar buoy, (3) and traditional battery swapping); and three locations; (1) nearshore, (2) far-offshore, and (3) high-latitude). In addition, other project goals included developing high level installation, operation, and maintenance plans for each scenario.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Grand Tour missions to the outer solar system with Saturn /Intermediate 20/.

Discussion of the hazards, spacecraft features, time schedules, scientific objectives, and experiment packages which would probably characterize Grand Tour missions to the outer planets. The capabilities of the Saturn Intermediate 20 vehicle and supporting subsystems presently envisioned for such missions are outlined on the basis of comparison with other candidate launch vehicles. Hazard estimates are given for asteroid encounters, on-board and external radiation sources, trajectory perturbations, and operational reliability of equipment. Direct, swingby, and multiplanet missions are discussed in terms of launch opportunities, injection velocities, and flight durations. Measurements which should be carried out are evaluated for relevant contributions to knowledge of the outer planets.

Hale, D. P.↗

Satellite-Based Spatiotemporal Trends in PM2.5 Concentrations: China 2004-2013

Three decades of rapid economic development is causing severe and widespread PM2.5(particulate matter (is) less than 2.5 ) pollution in China. However, research on the health impacts of PM2.5 exposure has been hindered by limited historical PM2.5 concentration data. We estimated ambient PM2.5 concentrations from 2004 to 2013 in China at 0.1 deg resolution using the most recent satellite data and evaluated model performance with available ground observations. We developed a two-stage spatial statistical model using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6 aerosol optical depth (AOD) and assimilated meteorology, land use data, and PM2.5 concentrations from China's recently established ground monitoring network. An inverse variance weighting (IVW) approach was developed to combine MODIS Dark Target and Deep Blue AOD to optimize data coverage. We evaluated model predicted PM2.5 concentrations from 2004 to early 2014 using ground observations. The overall model cross-validation R(sup 2) and relative prediction error were 0.79 and 35.6%, respectively. Validation beyond the model year (2013) indicated that it accurately predicted PM(sub 2.5) concentrations with little bias at the monthly (R(sup 2) = 0.73), regression slope = 0.91) and seasonal (R(sup 2) = 0.79), regression slope = 0.92) levels. Seasonal variations revealed that winter was the most polluted season and that summer was the cleanest season. Analysis of predicted PM2.5 levels showed a mean annual increase of 1.97 micro-g/cu cm between 2004 and 2007 and a decrease of 0.46 micro-g/cu cm between 2008 and 2013. Our satellite-driven model can provide reliable historical PM2.5 estimates in China at a resolution comparable to those used in epidemiologic studies on the health effects of long-term PM2.5 exposure in North America. This data source can potentially advance research on PM2.5 health effects in China.

satellite remote sensing↗

A compact hydrogen maser with exceptional long-term stability

A passive hydrogen maser employing a smaller microwave cavity than previous masers is described. The volume of the entire resonator package, including a conventional source, hexapole state selector, and four magnetic shields, is estimated at 20 liters. The techniques for constructing the ceramic cavity, coating it with FEP, and attaching the endcaps to achieve a stable container (to allow its use as a single vacuum system) are described in detail. Frequency stability measurements were made of four such masers, against an NBS-4 cesium primary standard, against each other, and against eight commercial cesium clocks; frequency stability level is reported as 1.7 x 10 to the -12th tau exp -1/2 from 1 to 100,000 sec, and no drift above 1 x 10 to the -15th/day was found. Pressure and temperature effects on frequency stability were found at the 1 x 10 to the -14th level. Noise behavior beyond 200,000 sec is characterized as random walk. The potential use of a compact stable maser as a clock is suggested.

Howe, D. A.↗

Methods for Cloud Cover Estimation

Several methods for cloud cover estimation are described relevant to assessing the performance of a ground-based network of solar observatories. The methods rely on ground and satellite data sources and provide meteorological or climatological information. One means of acquiring long-term observations of solar oscillations is the establishment of a ground-based network of solar observatories. Criteria for station site selection are: gross cloudiness, accurate transparency information, and seeing. Alternative methods for computing this duty cycle are discussed. The cycle, or alternatively a time history of solar visibility from the network, can then be input to a model to determine the effect of duty cycle on derived solar seismology parameters. Cloudiness from space is studied to examine various means by which the duty cycle might be computed. Cloudiness, and to some extent transparency, can potentially be estimated from satellite data.

Glackin, D. L.↗

Sources of variability in satellite-derived estimates of phytoplankton production in the eastern tropical Pacific

As a proxy for satellite CZCS observations and concurrent measurements of primary production rates, data from 138 stations occupied seasonally during 1967-1968 in the offshore eastern tropical Pacific were analyzed in terms of six temporal groups and our current regimes. Multiple linear regressions on column production Pt show that simulated satellite pigment is generally weakly correlated, but sometimes not correlated with Pt, and that incident irradiance, sea surface temperature, nitrate, transparency, and depths of mixed layer or nitracline assume little or no importance. After a proxy for the light-saturated chlorophyll-specific photosynthetic rate P(max) is added, the coefficient of determination ranges from 0.55 to 0.91 (median of 0.85) for the 10 cases. In stepwise multiple linear regressions the P(max) proxy is the best predictor for Pt.

Banse, Karl↗

On the 2018 Outburst of the Accreting Millisecond X-Ray Pulsar Swift J1756.9-2508 As Seen with NICER

We report on the coherent timing analysis of the 182 Hz accreting millisecond X-ray pulsar SwiftJ1756.92508during its 2018 outburst as observed with the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER). Combiningour NICER observations with Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer observations of the 2007 and 2009 outbursts, we alsostudied the long-term spin and orbital evolution of this source. We find that the binary system is well describedby a constant orbital period model, with an upper limit on the orbital period derivative of Pb < 7.4 ´ 10-13 ss1.Additionally, we improve upon the source coordinates through astrometric analysis of the pulse arrival times,finding R.A.=17h56m57 18±0 08 and decl.=25°0627 8±3 5, while simultaneously measuring thelong-term spin frequency derivative as n = -7.3 ´ 10-16 Hzs1. We briefly discuss the implications of thesemeasurements in the context of the wider population of accreting millisecond pulsars. We reported on the coherent timing analysis of the 2018 outburst of Swift J1756 as observed with NICER. Consistent with analyses of the previous outbursts (Krimm et al. 2007b; Patruno et al. 2010), we find that the X-ray pulsations have energy dependent amplitudes; the fractional amplitude of the fundamental increases with energy, whereas the fractional amplitude of the harmonic shows a slight decline with energy. This energy dependent behavior is not unusual in AMXPs (Patruno & Watts 2012) and can be interpreted in terms of the thermal emission from the stellar hotspot and reprocessing in the accretion column (e.g., Gierliński et al. 2002; Ibragimov & Poutanen 2009). The pulse arrival times of the 2018 outburst are well described by a timing model consisting of a circular orbit with a constant spin frequency. The pulse phases with respect to this model do not show spurious residuals with time or orbital phase, and no evidence is found that the pulse arrival times exhibit an additional delay associated with passing through the gravitational well of the companion star (Shapiro delay). We note, however, that the expected Shapiro delay is given as (Shapiro et al. 1971) Equation (5) where Φ is the orbital phase, G is the gravitational constant, c is the speed of light, and i is the inclination. Even for the maximum allowed companion mass, ${M}_{C}=0.030\,{M}_{\odot }$ (Krimm et al. 2007b, but see Section 4.2 for more details) and an inclination of 90°, the largest delay we can expect is only 4 μs. As this time-delay is smaller than the uncertainty on our phase residuals by nearly two orders of magnitude (see Figure 1), we are not sensitive to Shapiro delays in Swift J1756. Comparing our measurements for the 2018 outburst with those of the 2007 and 2009 outbursts as observed with RXTE, we analyzed the long-term evolution of this source. We found that the binary system is consistent with having a constant orbital period and that the pulsar shows a spin frequency derivative of $\dot{\nu }=-7.3\times {10}^{-16}\,\mathrm{Hz}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}$. 4.1. Spin-down Evolution The long-term spin frequency derivative measured in Swift J1756 is of the same order as the spin frequency derivatives measured in other AMXPs (Hartman et al. 2008; Patruno 2010; Riggio et al. 2011). This frequency change is most likely driven by the neutron star's loss of rotational energy. If so, then the spin-down luminosity is given as Equation (6) where I represents the neutron star moment of inertia. The long-term spin-down of a neutron star is usually assumed to be dominated by the braking torque associated with a spinning magnetic field. Assuming this mechanism is responsible for the observed spin-down in Swift J1756, we can compute the magnetic dipole moment as (Spitkovsky 2006) Equation (7) where α is the misalignment angle between the rotational and magnetic poles. Considering α = 0°–90°, we then find a magnetic field strength of $B\simeq (4\mbox{--}6)\times {10}^{8}$ G at the stellar magnetic poles. This magnetic field strength estimate is in line with those obtained for other accreting millisecond pulsars (see Mukherjee et al. 2015 and references therein). 4.2. Orbit Evolution The observed long-term binary evolution of Swift J1756 is consistent with this source having a constant orbital period and a lower limit on the evolutionary timescale of Equation (8) Binary evolution theory predicts that systems of this type evolve due to angular momentum loss through gravitational radiation (Kraft et al. 1962; Rappaport et al. 1982; Verbunt 1993). For conservative mass transfer, the binary period derivative is given by di Salvo et al. (2008), Equation (9) where MNS is the neutron star mass, $q={M}_{C}/{M}_{\mathrm{NS}}$ is the binary mass ratio, and −1/3 < n < 1 is the mass–radius index of the companion star. Depending on the source inclination, Krimm et al. (2007b) derived a companion mass of ${M}_{C}\,=0.007\mbox{--}0.022\,{M}_{\odot }$ for a neutron star mass of 1.4 ${M}_{\odot }$. For a neutron star mass of 2.2 ${M}_{\odot }$, the allowed range increased to ${M}_{C}=0.009\mbox{--}0.030\,{M}_{\odot }$. In both cases, they assumed an upper limit on the inclination of i < 85°, motivated by the fact that Swift J1756 does not show eclipses in its light curve. Accounting for the extreme cases of stellar masses and n, the binary may either be contracting or expanding. In either case, however, the rate of change is limited to $| {\dot{P}}_{b}| \lesssim 7\times {10}^{-14}$ s s−1, which is well below the upper limit obtained in this work. Although the binary evolution timescale we obtain for Swift J1756 is consistent with theory, it is worth noting that this is not generally true for low-mass X-ray binaries (see Patruno et al. 2017, for a comprehensive discussion). The AMXP SAX J1808.4–3658, in particular, has been found to evolve on a much shorter timescale, with a first derivative on the orbital period of $3.5\times {10}^{-12}$ s s−1 (Hartman et al. 2008; Patruno et al. 2012; Sanna et al. 2017a). Two models have been proposed to explain this discrepancy: highly nonconservative mass transfer due to irradiation of the companion star by the pulsar (di Salvo et al. 2008; Burderi et al. 2009), and spin–orbit coupling in the companion star (Hartman et al. 2008, 2009). While the latter depends on the companion star, and may vary from source to source, the former should operate in all AMXPs (see also Patruno 2017; Sanna et al. 2017c), including Swift J1756. The spin-down luminosity impinging on the companion star can be estimated as Equation (10) where ${\dot{E}}_{\mathrm{abl}}$ is the ablation luminosity, RL2 is the Roche lobe radius of the companion (Eggleton 1983), and a the binary separation. The irradiation fraction is $f={\dot{E}}_{\mathrm{abl}}/{\dot{E}}_{\mathrm{sd}}$, which, accounting for the range of allowed neutron star and companion masses, evaluates to f = 0.15%–0.35%. The associated mass loss for the companion is given by Equation (11) such that, assuming an efficiency of η = 100%, ${\dot{M}}_{C}\,\sim -3\times {10}^{-10}\,{M}_{\odot }$ yr−1. The effect of this mass loss on the orbital period follows through the relation (Frank et al. 2002) Equation (12) giving a period derivative due to mass loss of ${\dot{P}}_{b,\mathrm{ML}}\,=5\times {10}^{-12}$ s s−1. This value is well above our limit on the period derivative. Hence, in order for this mechanism to be consistent with our observations of Swift J1756, the efficiency at which the companion star converts the incident luminosity into mass loss must be η < 15%. This value is very different from the 40% required in SAX J1808.4–3658 (Patruno et al. 2016) and is instead in line with the <5% efficiency determined for IGR J00291+5934 (Patruno 2017). This work was supported by NASA through the NICER mission and the Astrophysics Explorers Program, and made use of data and software provided by the High Energy Astrophysics Science Archive Research Center (HEASARC). P.B. was supported by an NPP fellowship at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. D.A. acknowledges support from the Royal Society.

Bult, Peter↗

Risk-Aware Measurement Synchronization and Recovery for DSSE With Heterogeneous Data Sources

Power distribution systems are increasingly integrating heterogeneous sensors with varying data reporting rates and types, which pose challenges to achieving observability at the desired temporal resolution of distribution system state estimation (DSSE). Multisensor failures caused by extreme events exacerbate these issues, introducing substantial uncertainties into DSSE. This article proposes a novel solution to these challenges by ensuring high-resolution system observability despite heterogeneous data sources and multisensor failures. First, a deep learning architecture combining long short-term memory (LSTM) and graph convolutional network (GCN) is employed to synchronize meters with different reporting rates, aiming to achieve system observability. A random-walk-model-based approach is introduced to generate pseudo-measurements while properly characterizing their uncertainties under multisensor failures. Finally, a disaster-risk-informed observability metric (RiOM) is defined to quantify the uncertainty associated with state estimation results. The proposed framework offers deeper insights into the system observability on the fly compared with conventional analysis. The effectiveness of the framework is demonstrated on an IEEE standard test case and a large-scale real-world distribution feeder in mid-Minnesota in the U.S.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

TEAMER: MADWEC Techno-Economic Analysis

The objective of this project was for the facility to conduct a techno-economic assessment (TEA) of the Maximal Asymmetric Drag Wave Energy Converter (MADWEC), developed by the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth (UMass Dartmouth). MADWEC is used for powering remote monitoring and Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) charging systems compared to other existing power supply options. The assessment estimates capital expenditures (CapEx), operational expenditures (OpEx), and power performance for 18 scenarios with the purpose of identifying key cost drivers, comparing total system cost, and comparing the power performance of the power supply options in terms of required installed capacity and estimated theoretical annual energy performance. The 18 assessed scenarios include two end-uses: 1) AUV charging and 2) offshore remote monitoring); three power sources: 1) MADWEC), 2) photovoltaic (PV) solar buoy, 3) and traditional battery swapping); and three locations; 1) nearshore, 2) far-offshore, and 3) high-latitude). In addition, other project goals included developing high level installation, operation, and maintenance plans for each scenario. The techno-economic model, created in Microsoft Excel, estimates CapEx, OpEx, and the power performance of each power supply source. The model has a dynamic format that allows custom inputs to accommodate future changes to the systems being assessed. This is a TEA for the MADWEC project, TEAMER RFTS 7 (request for technical support) program.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Assessment of Tropospheric Concentrations of NO2 from the TROPOMI/Sentinel-5 Precursor for the Estimation of Long-Term Exposure to Surface NO2 over South Korea

Since April 2018, the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) has provided data on tropospheric NO2 column concentrations (CTROPOMI) with unprecedented spatial resolution. This study aims to assess the capability of TROPOMI to acquire high spatial resolution data regarding surface NO2 mixing ratios. In general, the instrument effectively detected major and moderate sources of NO2 over South Korea with a clear weekday–weekend distinction. We compared the CTROPOMI with surface NO2 mixing ratio measurements from an extensive ground-based network over South Korea operated by the Korean Ministry of Environment (SKME; more than 570 sites), for 2019. Spatiotemporally collocated CTROPOMI and SKME showed a moderate correlation (correlation coefficient, r = 0.67), whereas their annual mean values at each site showed a higher correlation (r = 0.84). The CTROPOMI and SKME were well correlated around the Seoul metropolitan area, where significant amounts of NO2 prevailed throughout the year, whereas they showed lower correlation at rural sites. We converted the tropospheric NO2 from TROPOMI to the surface mixing ratio (STROPOMI) using the EAC4 (ECMWF Atmospheric Composition Reanalysis 4) profile shape, for quantitative comparison with the SKME. The estimated STROPOMI generally underestimated the in-situ value obtained, SKME (slope = 0.64), as reported in previous studies.

TROPOMI↗

The spectra of IceCube Neutrino (SIN) candidate sources – III. Optical spectroscopy and source characterization of the full sample

A correlation between astrophysical high-energy neutrinos and blazars has been suggested by various authors. In particular, a likely association between IceCube events and intermediate- and high-energy peaked BL Lac objects has led to a sample of 47 objects having a high probability of being neutrino sources. In the first paper of this series we reported optical spectroscopy of 17 objects, which together with data taken from the literature covered 80 per cent of the sample. Here, we present spectroscopy obtained at large aperture telescopes of a further 17 objects (plus four additional targets), which completes the sample coverage. For 12 objects we are able to determine the redshift (0.07 < z < 1.6), while for the others we set a lower limit on it, based on either the robust detection of intervening absorption systems or on an estimation derived from the absence of spectral signatures of the host galaxy. With these new data we expand and reinforce the main results of our previous papers, namely the fact that in terms of their broad-band properties our sources appear to be indistinguishable from the rest of the blazar population and the relatively large (>34 per cent and possibly as high as 80 per cent) fraction of masquerading BL Lac objects, for which the low equivalent width of the emission lines is due to the brightness of the boosted continuum, rather than being an intrinsic property, in our sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Land Water Storage within the Congo Basin Inferred from GRACE Satellite Gravity Data

GRACE satellite gravity data is used to estimate terrestrial (surface plus ground) water storage within the Congo Basin in Africa for the period of April, 2002 - May, 2006. These estimates exhibit significant seasonal (30 +/- 6 mm of equivalent water thickness) and long-term trends, the latter yielding a total loss of approximately 280 km(exp 3) of water over the 50-month span of data. We also combine GRACE and precipitation data set (CMAP, TRMM) to explore the relative contributions of the source term to the seasonal hydrological balance within the Congo Basin. We find that the seasonal water storage tends to saturate for anomalies greater than 30-44 mm of equivalent water thickness. Furthermore, precipitation contributed roughly three times the peak water storage after anomalously rainy seasons, in early 2003 and 2005, implying an approximately 60-70% loss from runoff and evapotranspiration. Finally, a comparison of residual land water storage (monthly estimates minus best-fitting trends) in the Congo and Amazon Basins shows an anticorrelation, in agreement with the 'see-saw' variability inferred by others from runoff data.

Crowley, John W.↗

The Re-Analysis of Ozone Profile Data from a 41-Year Series of SBUV Instruments

In this study we present the validation of ozone profiles from a number of Solar Back Scattered Ultra Violet (SBUV) and SBUV/2 instruments that were recently reprocessed using an updated (Version 8.6) algorithm. The SBUV dataset provides the longest available record of global ozone profiles, spanning a 41-year period from 1970 to 2011 (except a 5-year gap in the 1970s) and includes ozone profile records obtained from the Nimbus-4 BUV and Nimbus-7 SBUV instruments, and a series of SBUV(/2) instruments launched on NOAA operational satellites (NOAA 09, 11, 14, 16, 17, 18, 19). Although modifications in instrument design were made in the evolution from the BUV instrument to the modern SBUV(/2) model, the basic principles of the measurement technique and retrieval algorithm remain the same. The long term SBUV data record allows us to create a consistent, calibrated dataset of ozone profiles that can be used for climate studies and trend analyses. In particular, we focus on estimating the various sources of error in the SBUV profile ozone retrievals using independent observations and analysis of the algorithm itself. For the first time we include in the metadata a quantitative estimate of the smoothing error, defined as the error due to profile variability that the SBUV observing system cannot inherently measure. The magnitude of the smoothing error varies with altitude, latitude, season and solar zenith angle. Between 10 and 1 hPa the smoothing errors for the SBUV monthly zonal mean retrievals are of the order of 1 %, but start to increase above and below this layer. The largest smoothing errors, as large as 15-20%, were detected in in the troposphere. The SBUV averaging kernels, provided with the ozone profiles in version 8.6, help to eliminate the smoothing effect when comparing the SBUV profiles with high vertical resolution measurements, and make it convenient to use the SBUV ozone profiles for data assimilation and model validation purposes. The smoothing error can also be minimized by combining layers of data, and we will discuss recommendations for this approach as well. The SBUV ozone profiles have been intensively validated against satellite profile measurements obtained from the Microwave Limb Sounders (MLS) (on board the UARS and AURA satellites), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). Also, we compare coincident and collocated SBUV ozone retrievals with observations made by ground-based instruments, such as microwave spectrometers, lidars, Umkehr instruments and balloon-borne ozonosondes. Finally, we compare the SBUV ozone profiles with output from the NASA GSFC GEOS-CCM model. In the stratosphere between 25 and 1 hPa the mean biases and standard deviations are within 5% for monthly mean ozone profiles. Above and below this layer the vertical resolution of the SBUV algorithm decreases and the effects of vertical smoothing should be taken into account. Though the SBUV algorithm has a coarser vertical resolution in the lower stratosphere and troposphere, it is capable of precisely estimating the integrated ozone column between the surface and 25 hPa. The time series of the tropospheric - lower stratospheric ozone column derived from SBUV agrees within 5% with the corresponding values observed by an ensemble of ozone sonde stations in North Hemisphere. Drift of the ozone time series obtained from each SBUV(/2) instrument relative to ground based and satellite measurements are evaluated and some features of individual SBUV(l2) instruments are discussed. In addition to evaluating individual instruments against independent observations, we also focus on the instrument to instrument consistency in the series. Overall, Version 8.6 ozone profiles obtained from two different SBUV(l2) instruments compare within a couple of percent during overlap periods and are consistently varying in time, with some exceptions. Some of the noted discrepancies might bssociated with ozone diurnal variations, since the difference in the local time of the observations for a pair of SBUV(l2) instruments could be several hours. Other issues include the potential short-term drift in measurements as the instrument orbit drifts, and measurements are obtained at high solar zenith angles (>85 ). Based on the results of the validation, a consistent, calibrated dataset of SBUV ozone profiles has been created based on internal calibration only.

Kramarova, Natalya↗

The Effects of Atmospheric Models on the Estimation of Infrasonic Source Functions at the Source Physics Experiment

We invert infrasound signals for an equivalent seismoacoustic source function using different atmospheric models to produce the necessary Green’s functions. The infrasound signals were produced by a series of underground chemical explosions as part of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE). In a previous study, we inverted the infrasound data using so-called predictive atmospheric models, which were based on historic, regional-scaled, publicly available weather observations interpolated onto a 3D grid. For the work presented here, we invert the same infrasound data, but using atmospheric models based on weather data collected in a time window that includes the approximate time of the explosion experiments, which we term postdictive models. We build two versions of the postdictive models for each SPE event: one that is based solely on the regional scaled observations, and one that is based on both regional scaled observations combined with on-site observations obtained by a weather sonde released at the time of the SPE. We then invert the observed data set three times, once for each atmospheric model type. We find that the estimated seismoacoustic source functions are relatively similar in waveform shape regardless of which atmospheric model that we used to construct the Green’s functions. However, we find that the amplitude of the estimated source functions is systematically dependent on the atmospheric model type: using the predictive atmospheric models to invert the data generally yields estimated source functions that are larger in amplitude than those estimated using the postdictive models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating CO2 Emissions Using Real and Simulated Total Column XCO2 Observations

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations necessitate deeper understanding of urban sources and sinks. Various sensor technologies and data assimilation strategies can be used to determine short- and long-term atmospheric trends. We seek to find the optimal synthesis of various measurement types in order to characterizing different types of sources in an urban environment.

Raheja, Garima↗

Evaluation of Uncertainties in the Anthropogenic SO 2 Emissions in the USA from the OMI Point Source Catalog

Satellite remote sensing is a promising method of monitoring emissions that may be missing in inventories, but the accuracy of these estimates is often not clear. We demonstrate here a comprehensive evaluation of errors in anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emission estimates from NASA’s OMI point source catalog for the contiguous US by comparing emissions from the catalog with high-quality emission inventory data over different dimensions including size of individual sources, aggregate vs individual source errors, and potential bias in individual source estimates over time. For sources that are included in the catalog, we find that errors in aggregate (sum of error for all included sources) are relatively low. Errors for individual sources in any given year can be substantial, however, with over- or underestimates in terms of total error ranging from –80 to 110 kt (roughly 10–90th percentile). In this study, we find that these errors are not necessarily random over time and that there can be consistently positive or negative biases for individual sources. We did not find any overall statistical relationship between the degree of isolation of a source and bias, either at a 40 or 70 km scales. For a sub-set of sources where inventory emissions over a radius of 70 km around an OMI detection are larger than twice the emissions within 40 km, the OMI value is consistently overestimated. We find, as expected, that emission sources not included in the catalog are the largest aggregate source of difference between the satellite estimates and inventories, especially in more recent years where source emission magnitudes have been decreasing and note that trends in satellite detections do not necessarily track trends in total emissions. We find that the OMI-based SO 2 emissions are accurate in aggregate, when summed over a number of sources, but must be interpreted more cautiously at the individual source level. Similar analyses would be valuable for other satellite emission estimates; however, in many cases, the appropriate high-quality reference data may need to be generated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the Effect of Surface Finish on High-Cycle Fatigue of SLM-IN718

The surface finish of parts produced by additive manufacturing processes is much rougher than the surface finish generated by machining processes, and a rougher surface can reduce the fatigue strength of a part. This paper discusses an effort to quantify that reduction of strength in high-cycle fatigue for selective laser melt (SLM) coupons. A high-cycle fatigue (HCF) knockdown factor was estimated for Inconel 718, manufactured with the SLM process. This factor is the percentage reduction from the maximum stress in fatigue for low-stress ground (LSG) specimens to the maximum stress of those left with the original surface condition at the same fatigue life. Specimens were provided by a number of vendors, free to use their "best practice"; only one heat treat condition was considered; and several test temperatures were characterized, including room temperature, 800F, 1000F, and 1200F. The 1000F data had a large variance, and was omitted from consideration in this document. A first method used linear approximations extracted from the graphs, and only where data was available for both. A recommended knockdown factor of the as-built surface condition (average roughness of approximately 245 micro-inches/inch) versus low-stress ground condition (roughness no more than 4 micro-inches/inch) was established at approximately 1/3 or 33%. This is to say that for the as-built surface condition, a maximum stress of 2/3 of the stress for LSG can be expected to produce a similar life in the as-built surface condition. In this first evaluation, the knockdown factor did not appear to be a function of temperature. A second approach, the "KP method", incorporated the surface finish measure into a new parameter termed the pseudo-stress intensity factor, Kp, which was formulated to be similar to the fracture mechanics stress intensity factor. Using Kp, the variance seemed to be reduced across all sources, and knockdown factors were estimated using Kp over the range where data occurred. A plot of the results suggests that the knockdown factor is a function of temperature, and that for low lives the knockdown might be lower than the knockdown observed above about one million cycles, where it tended to stabilize. This was not universal for all temperatures tested. The higher temperature tests are thought to be influenced by the test temperature, which perhaps continued the aging process. Further evaluation of the method is suggested.

Lambert, D. M.↗

A general predictive methodology for fuel-mixture properties up to supercritical conditions

A predictive thermodynamic model is utilized for the calculation of fuel properties of oxymethylene dimethyl ethers (OME 3–4 ), surrogates for gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel, as well as alcohol blends with gasoline and diesel. The alcohols used for these blends are methanol, ethanol, propanol, butanol and pentanol; their mixing ratio ranges from 10 to 50% by volume. The model is based on the Perturbed-Chain Statistical Association Fluid Theory (PC-SAFT) equation of state (EoS) and Vapor Liquid Equilibrium (VLE) calculations at constant temperature, density and composition. The model includes the association term, with the assumption of two association sites (2B scheme), to enable the modeling of alcohols. The pure-component parameters are estimated based on the Group Contribution (GC) method of various sources, as well as a parametrization model specifically designed for the case of OME 3–4 . The results of the computational model for the density, vapor pressure and distillation curves at various conditions, including high-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT), are compared to experimental and computational data available in the literature. In the cases where no measurements are available for the surrogates, experimental data for the corresponding target fuel are used, taking into consideration the inherent deviation in properties between real and surrogate fuel. Overall, the results are in good agreement with the data from the literature, with the average deviation not exceeding 12% for temperature (Kelvin) on the distillation curves, 10% for density and 46% for vapor pressure and the general trend being captured successfully. The use of different pure component parameter estimation techniques can further improve the prediction quality in the cases of OME3–4 and the aviation fuel surrogate, especially for the vapor pressure, leading to an average deviation lower than 18%. These results demonstrate the predictive capabilities of the model, which extend to a wide range of fuel types and pressure/temperature conditions. Through this investigation, the present work aims to establish the limits of applicability of this thermodynamic property prediction methodology.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗