An evaluation of a technique for predicting some indicators of solar activity
Methods for predicting indicators of solar activity - solar flare occurrence probabilities, solar noise flux, and geomagnetic activity
SOLAR ACTIVITY↗
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Solar wind ionization temperatures inferred from the charge state composition of diffuse particle events
Detailed measurements of the charge state composition of energetic heavy ions in the diffuse component are presented for the first time. Spectral characteristics and charge state measurements for 12 diffuse ion events observed upstream of the earth's bow shock are reported. One event is analyzed in order to illustrate the basic assumptions and general techniques involved in the determination of charge state composition from the data. The probable solar wind origin of the seed population of the diffuse component is used together with the charge state composition of these heavy ions to estimate the charge state composition in the concurrent solar wind, and hence to infer the equilibrium coronal temperatures associated with a variety of solar wind flows. The results are compared with predicted solar wind values.
Galvin, A. B.↗
Anisotropic solar cosmic ray propagation in an inhomogeneous medium, part 2
Model for predicting solar shell effect on anisotropic solar cosmic ray propagation
Burlaga, L. F.↗
Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles
The dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extend from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to global magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across layers of the solar interior and atmosphere, which contribute to coronal heating and eruptive dynamics. For modeling global-scale activity, we use a data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitations on prediction accuracy, and we present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle (25) based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting solar activity.
Kitiashvili, I. N.↗
Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles
Dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extends from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to the global-Sun magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across the different layers, which contribute to the corona heating and eruptive dynamics, as well as interlinks between different layers of the solar interior and atmosphere. For modeling the global-scale activity we use the data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitation on the prediction accuracy. We present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields, and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting the solar activity.
Kitiashvili, I. N.↗
Systematic Independent Validation of Inner Heliospheric Models
This presentation is the first in a series which will provide independent validation of community models of the outer corona and inner heliosphere. In this work we establish a set of measures to be used in validating this group of models. We use these procedures to generate a comprehensive set of results from the Wang- Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model which will be used as a baseline, or reference, against which to compare all other models. We also run a test of the validation procedures by applying them to a small set of results produced by the ENLIL Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model. In future presentations we will validate other models currently hosted by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center(CCMC), including a comprehensive validation of the ENLIL model. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is widely used to model the Solar wind, and is used by a number of agencies to predict Solar wind conditions at Earth as much as four days into the future. Because it is so important to both the research and space weather forecasting communities, it is essential that its performance be measured systematically, and independently. In this paper we offer just such an independent and systematic validation. We report skill scores for the model's predictions of wind speed and IMF polarity for a large set of Carrington rotations. The model was run in all its routinely used configurations. It ingests line of sight magnetograms. For this study we generated model results for monthly magnetograms from the National Solar Observatory (SOLIS), Mount Wilson Observatory and the GONG network, spanning the Carrington rotation range from 1650 to 2068. We compare the influence of the different magnetogram sources, performance at quiet and active times, and estimate the effect of different empirical wind speed tunings. We also consider the ability of the WSA model to identify sharp transitions in wind speed from slow to fast wind. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare future versions of the model
MacNeice, P. J.↗
Impact of MIE-Resonances on the Atmospheric Absorption of Water Clouds
Clouds strongly modulate radiative transfer processes in the Earth's atmosphere. Studies, which simulate bulk properties of clouds, such as absorption, require methods that accurately account for multiple scattering among individual cloud particles. Multiple scattering processes are well described by MIE-theory, if interacting particles have a spherical shape. This is a good assumption for water droplets. Thus, simulations for water clouds (especially for interactions with solar radiation) usually apply readily available MIE-codes. The presence of different drop-sizes, however, necessitates repetitive calculations for many sizes. The usual representation by a few sizes is likely to miss contributions from densely distributed, sharp resonances. Despite their usually narrow width, integrated over the entire size-spectrum of a cloud droplet distribution, the impact of missed resonances could add up. The consideration of these resonances tends to increase cloud extinction and cloud absorption. This mechanism for a larger (than by MIE-methods predicted) solar absorption has the potential to explain observational evidence of larger than predicted cloud absorption at solar wavelengths. The presentation will address the absorption impact of added resonances for typical properties of water clouds (e.g. drop size distributions, drop concentrations and cloud geometry). Special attention will be given to scenarios with observational evidence of law than simulated solar absorption; particularly if simultaneous measurements of cloud micro- and macrophysical properties are available.
Wiscombe, W.↗
Toward a descriptive model of solar particles in the heliosphere
During a workshop on the interplanetary charged particle environment held in 1987, a descriptive model of solar particles in the heliosphere was assembled. This model includes the fluence, composition, energy spectra, and spatial and temporal variations of solar particles both within and beyong 1 AU. The ability to predict solar particle fluences was also discussed. Suggestions for specific studies designed to improve the basic model were also made.
Shea, M. A.↗
Global Solar Activity Data Portal for Studying 3D Dynamics and Activity of the Sun
The main problems with understanding and predicting solar activity are tightly linked to limitations in describing the global evolution of the Sun from the deep interior to the corona. Because of the complexity of interactions in a wide range of dynamical, turbulent, and spatial scales and dramatic changes in thermodynamic and magnetic field conditions, only physics-based models can provide essential background to generate reliable solar activity forecasts. However, performing accurate model calibration and estimating uncertainties is often challenging due to the unavailability of a long time series of observations. To mitigate these limitations, we have developed the Global Solar Activity (GSA) Data Portal, which enables convenient access to a variety of modern and historical data. The portal supports a dynamic visualization for 1D time series (such as the sunspot number and solar irradiance) and quick-look visualization for 2D datasets (e.g., synoptic magnetograms, the solar internal rotation, and flows). The GSA portal includes a search engine that enables data retrieval from user-specified data sources and time intervals. In this presentation, we will discuss the current and upcoming capabilities of the data portal and its potential applications for space weather studies.
SMD↗
Conductive heating of the solar wind. III - Breakdown of the Navier-Stokes equations, 4 June - 4 December 1965
Navier-Stokes equation in predicting solar wind flow pattern
SOLAR WIND↗
Solar neutrinos and the influence of radiative opacities on solar models
Use of new radiative opacities based on the hot Thomas-Fermi model of the atom yields a predicted solar neutrino flux which is still considerably larger than the flux observed in Davis's Cl-37 experiment.
Carson, T. R.↗
Challenges and Solutions for Precision Solar Pointing on the ISS for the TSIS Instrument
The International Space Station offers an attractive platform for external payloads in many regards, but its large, complex structure is challenging for payloads that require precise, unobstructed pointing. As an instrument that measures solar irradiance on a continual basis, the TSIS payload was designed to robustly account for these ISS challenges and is now performing its mission on the ISS with great success.This paper first describes how TSIS was able to measure the ISS background jitter using High-rate Fine Sun Sensor data that was taken during passive solar transits through its field of view. The measurements showed that ISS jitter at the TSIS location on ELC-3 Site 5 is relatively benign with less than 4 arcseconds 1 at frequencies less than 0.5 Hz. This value is lower than previous estimates but agrees well with recent measurements from other external payloads, including OPALS and SAGE III. Because TSIS was designed to be robust to base motion jitter, it has achieved less than 4 arcseconds 1 of pointing error, which provides an extremely precise pointing platform for the solar irradiance measurements. The other challenging ISS characteristic is its large, complex structure that obscures solar viewing at sunrise and sunset from the zenith-facing location of TSIS. Although TSIS was able to predict solar viewing durations during the design phase with relatively high accuracy, the exact timing and causes of obscuration were difficult to predict and understand after TSIS began operating on the ISS. To aid in the understanding of blockage by ISS structure, detailed obscuration maps were created using HFSS measurements that clearly show the exact gimbal angles where blockage occurs and the specific structural features of the ISS that cause the blockage. These maps have helped TSIS to maximize its solar tracking durations each orbit, which has supported the mission in meeting its science objectives.
background jitter↗
Empirical Model of 10 – 130 MeV Solar Energetic Particle Spectra at 1 AU Based on Coronal Mass Ejection Speed and Direction
We present a new empirical model to predict solar energetic particle (SEP) event integrated and peak intensity spectra between 10 and 130 MeV at 1 AU, based on multi-point spacecraft measurements from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO), the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), and the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) satellite experiment. The analyzed data sample includes 32 SEP events occurring between 2010 and 2014, with a statistically significant proton signal at energies in excess of a few tens of MeV, unambiguously recorded at three spacecraft locations. The spatial distributions of SEP intensities are reconstructed by assuming an energy-dependent 2D Gaussian functional form, and accounting for the correlation between the intensity and the speed of the parent coronal mass ejection (CME), and the magnetic-field-line connection angle. The CME measurements used are from the Space Weather Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (DONKI). The model performance, including its extrapolations to lower/higher energies, is tested by comparing with the spectra of 20 SEP events not used to derive the model parameters. Despite the simplicity of the model, the observed and predicted event-integrated and peak intensities at Earth and at the STEREO spacecraft for these events show remarkable agreement, both in the spectral shapes and their absolute values.
Alessandro Bruno↗
Our present state of ignorance of the outer planets and their satellites.
Although the outer solar system contains the bulk of the angular momentum of the system and a huge fraction of the total planetary mass, very little is actually known about it. Massive Jupiter, with its low mean density and huge red spot (possibly a Taylor column), shows a complex rotational pattern as a result of three rotating systems, each having a different period. Atmospheric scattering of the reflected solar radiation makes spectral interpretation uncertain. Imprecisions in the Bond albedo cause discrepancies between actual and predicted solar energy absorbed. Saturn is similar to Jupiter in massiveness, low density, atmospheric aerosols, and albedo. Its rings are believed to be largely water ice. To date, no evidence of radiation belts, analogous to Jupiter's, exists for Saturn, Uranus, or Neptune. Methane and hydrogen have been detected in the atmospheres of all these planets, but the mole fraction of hydrogen is lower in the atmospheres of Uranus and Neptune. Uranus' 98 degree inclination will provide basis for study of its atmospheric circulation. Our knowledge of Pluto is restricted to the sparsest physical data.
Rea, D. G.↗
BEARALERTS - A successful flare prediction system
The BEARALERT program of predicting solar flares or rapid development of activity in certain sunspot groups is described. The program was instigated in December 1987 by the Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) in order to test the current understanding of the flare process by making public predictions via electronic mail. Neither the exact timing of the flare nor the possibility of emergence of new active regions can be predicted. However, high-resolution observations of the magnetic configuration, H-alpha brightness and structure, and other properties of a region have enabled the BBSO astronomers to announce the onset of 15 of 23 major active regions over a two-year period. The criteria for prediction are given and discussed, along with those for filament eruption. The BEARALERT success evaluation is discussed, and the progress made in prediction success is evaluated.
Zirin, Harold↗
Impacts of Non-Simultaneous Global Photospheric Magnetic Measurements on Coronal and Solar Wind Modeling
The intensity and arrival time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be significantly influenced by the background solar wind encountered as they propagate outward from the Sun into the interplanetary medium. In addition, solar energetic particles (SEPs) race ahead of CME shock fronts and flare regions along magnetic field lines largely determined by the background solar wind. Predicting the solar wind accurately is therefore critical for improving forecasts of CMEs, SEPs, and high-speed streams. Modeling of the corona and solar wind is challenging in general, as it is highly dependent on global photospheric magnetic field maps, which serve as the boundary conditions to all coronal models that drive solar wind models. Unfortunately, less than half of the Sun’s photospheric magnetic field is reliably measured from any given vantage point and thus it is common for the maps to have highly dated and unreliable measurements in them. While Solar Obiter (SolO) now provides for the first time the opportunity to have simultaneous measurements of nearly the entire surface magnetic field of Sun (e.g., when SolO/PHI measurements are combined with those from SDO/HMI), the required alignment to accomplish this occurs only occasionally. Further, coronal models are extremely sensitive to the strengths of the polar magnetic fields of the Sun, which remain poorly observed. Recently, efforts to mitigate this problem include using flux transport models such as the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model, which evolves the field forward in time using well known transport processes occurring on the Sun. However, it cannot account for the emergence of new magnetic flux without direct observations. The ESA VIGIL mission will eventually provide continuous observations from the L5, and the proposed SunCHASER mission will likewise do this at the L4 vantage point should it be funded. Ultimately, what is needed is a constellation of spacecraft distributed around the Sun with magnetographs that continuously measure the global surface magnetic field. In this talk, we discuss how the lack of simultaneous global measurements of the photospheric magnetic field adversely impacts the predictive performance of coronal and solar wind models.
C. Nick Arge↗
Low-cost solar tracking system
Smaller heat-collector is moved to stay in focus with the sun, instead of moving reflector. Tracking can be controlled by storing data of predicted solar positions or by applying conventional sun-sensing devices to follow solar movement.
Miller, C. G.↗
A three dimensional gasdynamic model for solar wind flow past nonaxisymmetric magnetospheres - Application to Jupiter and Saturn
The gasdynamic convected magnetic field model of Spreiter et al. (1966) and Spreiter and Stahara (1985) for predicting solar wind flow past a planetary magnetoionopause obstacle is extended to three dimensions and applied to Jupiter and Saturn, in which the effects of rapid spin, large size, and ring current phenomena are believed to result in broadening of their magnetospheres near the planetary equatorial plane. The computational procedures of the model are described, and the calculated results are presented for a number of magnetospheres of elliptic cross sections with values ranging from 1 to 2 for the ratio a/b between the major (equatorial) and minor (polar) axes. For Jupiter, the results indicate a broadening to a/b of about 1.754, a value consistent with previous estimates determined from independent calculations. For Saturn, a smaller broadening to a/b of about 1.25 is indicated.
Stahara, S. S.↗