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At least 163 records · Page 9

Reducing impacts of artificial ponding in modeling salt marshes using a conductivity-formulated subgrid model

The landforms of salt marsh systems are rather complex, with meandering channel networks cutting through low-lying, extensive marsh platforms. Some small-scale topographic details are critical to flooding and draining processes but cannot be reflected in the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) due to limited measurement resolution and vegetation bias. Numerical models need a grid with high enough resolution to capture the small-scale connectivity to correctly model the small-scale flow processes, making the model computationally unaffordable. Here, in this study, we derived a subgrid model, which couples two flow components, one is the regular subgrid model for simulating the subgrid-resolved flows, and the other is a conductivity-formulated porous flow model for modeling small-scale gut flows unresolved at the subgrid level. The model validation was performed using an idealized case with a narrow slot that was unresolved in the coupled flow model. Model results were compared with a slot-resolved regular subgrid model where only surface flows are solved and suggested that, with a proper model parameterization, the coupled flow model is capable of reproducing flooding and draining processes similar to the slot-resolved subgrid model of surface flow. The model was applied to simulating flooding and draining processes in a meso-tidal salt marsh. The model results demonstrate that the coupled subgrid model can be used to reduce the impacts of artificial ponding that usually occur in numerical simulations of salt marshes with numerous narrow gullies and creeks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of 1/100-Scale Mooring Systems for Wave Energy Converters

This study evaluates the feasibility, accuracy, and limitations of using 1/100th scale physical mooring systems to represent full-scale mooring behavior for wave energy converters (WECs) during small-scale tank testing. The work focuses on an RM3-style point absorber deployed in conditions representative of the PacWave South test site and examines whether small-scale physical testing can reliably inform numerical modeling, design decisions, and future prototype development. Overall, this study concludes that small-scale (1/100th) physical mooring models can provide valuable qualitative insights, including relative comparisons between mooring types and trends in device behavior, but cannot reliably replicate full-scale mooring loads or dynamic response without significant scaling distortion. Physical tests at this scale are most appropriate for motion characterization and model validation within known limitations, not for deriving absolute mooring loads or final engineering design values. Key lessons learned emphasize the importance of improved instrumentation strategies, iterative wave tank tuning, more precisely manufactured scaled mooring components, and enhanced anchoring systems to reduce experimental uncertainty.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Bed form-induced hyporheic exchange and geochemical hotspots

Small-scale bed form topographies control hyporheic exchange and biogeochemical processes within aquatic sediments, which ultimately affect water quality and nutrient cycling at the watershed scale. The impact of three-dimensional and small-scale bed form topographies on hyporheic exchange and solute mixing is investigated in the present work. The effect of bed form morphologies on the development of zones of enhanced reaction rates (i.e., hotspots) is also studied. A computational fluid dynamics model to simulate river flow over bed forms is combined with a subsurface flow and multicomponent reactive solute transport model. A wide variety of bed form topographies are generated using geometric models by varying parameters controlling curvature as well as bed form wavelength and amplitude. The results in this research suggest that out-of-phase bed forms generate more complex hyporheic flow patterns which reduce the efficiency of solute transformations. Higher phase shifts in bed form shapes result in overall higher average velocity, larger zones of enhanced pressure and reaction rates, and higher amounts of solute exchange. Moreover, the bed form shapes control the reaction process for a wide range of sediment conductivities. Here this study advances the understanding of the effects of complex and small scale morphological features on hyporheic exchange processes including the rate and spatio-temporal distribution of reaction hotspots.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Memory-based parameterization with differentiable solver: Application to Lorenz ’96

Physical parameterizations (or closures) are used as representations of unresolved subgrid processes within weather and global climate models or coarse-scale turbulent models, whose resolutions are too coarse to resolve small-scale processes. These parameterizations are typically grounded on physically based, yet empirical, representations of the underlying small-scale processes. Machine learning-based parameterizations have recently been proposed as an alternative solution and have shown great promise to reduce uncertainties associated with the parameterization of small-scale processes. Yet, those approaches still show some important mismatches that are often attributed to the stochasticity of the considered process. This stochasticity can be due to coarse temporal resolution, unresolved variables, or simply to the inherent chaotic nature of the process. To address these issues, we propose a new type of parameterization (closure), which is built using memory-based neural networks, to account for the non-instantaneous response of the closure and to enhance its stability and prediction accuracy. We apply the proposed memory-based parameterization, with differentiable solver, to the Lorenz ’96 model in the presence of a coarse temporal resolution and show its capacity to predict skillful forecasts over a long time horizon of the resolved variables compared to instantaneous parameterizations. This approach paves the way for the use of memory-based parameterizations for closure problems.

Mathematics↗

Optimal 1D Ly α forest power spectrum estimation – II. KODIAQ, SQUAD, and XQ-100

ABSTRACT We measure the 1D Ly α power spectrum P1D from Keck Observatory Database of Ionized Absorption toward Quasars (KODIAQ), The Spectral Quasar Absorption Database (SQUAD), and XQ-100 quasars using the optimal quadratic estimator. We combine KODIAQ and SQUAD at the spectrum level, but perform a separate XQ-100 estimation to control its large resolution corrections in check. Our final analysis measures P1D at scales k < 0.1 s km−1 between redshifts $z$ = 2.0–4.6 using 538 quasars. This sample provides the largest number of high-resolution, high-S/N observations; and combined with the power of optimal estimator it provides exceptional precision at small scales. These small-scale modes (k ≳ 0.02 s km−1), unavailable in Sloan Digital Sky Survey and Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument analyses, are sensitive to the thermal state and reionization history of the intergalactic medium, as well as the nature of dark matter. As an example, a simple Fisher forecast analysis estimates that our results can improve small-scale cut-off sensitivity by more than a factor of 2.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Toward accurate prediction of partial-penetration laser weld performance informed by three-dimensional characterization – Part II: μCT based finite element simulations

The mechanical behavior of partial-penetration laser welds exhibits significant variability in engineering quantities such as strength and apparent ductility. Understanding the root cause of this variability is important when using such welds in engineering designs. In Part II of this work, we develop finite element simulations with geometry derived from micro-computed tomography (μCT) scans of partial-penetration 304L stainless steel laser welds that were analyzed in Part I. We use these models to study the effects of the welds’ small-scale geometry, including porosity and weld depth variability, on the structural performance metrics of weld ductility and strength under quasi-static tensile loading. We show that this small-scale geometry is the primary cause of the observed variability for these mechanical response quantities. Additionally, we explore the sensitivity of model results to the conversion of the μCT data to discretized model geometry using different segmentation algorithms, and to the effect of small-scale geometry simplifications for pore shape and weld root texture. The modeling approach outlined and results of this work may be applicable to other material systems with small-scale geometric features and defects, such as additively manufactured materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Standardizing an Intermediate-Scale High Explosive Safety Test Suite

Small-scale safety testing, while successful in screening out extremely dangerous explosive compositions, does not fully characterize the explosive hazards associated with handling larger, consolidated or bare charges. It is proposed that intermediate-scale tests using consolidated charges in the range 25 mg – 1 kg are warranted to satisfactorily address the hazards. A standard for this intermediate-scale testing should be developed, proofed, peer-reviewed and adopted to assist in the development of safe new high explosive compositions across the complex. This whitepaper explains why current small-scale safety testing is insufficient to characterize the handling hazard, identifies the guiding aspects of explosive response that drive the handling hazards associated with larger consolidated charges, and proposes a suite of tests/experiments that can serve as a starting point for an intermediate-scale safety standard.

42 ENGINEERING↗

New Laboratory and Astrophysical Probes of Physics Beyond the Standard Model (Final Technical Report)

The first of these directions centers on new ideas in dark matter detection. As experimental scrutiny narrows the window for new physics at the weak scale, it has become apparent that the solution to the dark matter mystery may not reside there. Theoretical developments such as the hidden sector/valley paradigm have, at the same time, shown that compelling theories of dark matter reside below the weak scale. Searching for dark matter at lower mass scales requires looking beyond the current paradigm of dark matter direct detection based on nuclear recoils. It is the goal of this project to provide new ideas to guide the experimental program looking for light dark matter. I am actively proposing ideas for detecting dark matter as light as a meV, well beyond the current focus of GeV-TeV scale dark matter. Some of the ideas I have proposed, such as superconducting, superfluid, and polar material targets, are actively being developed into experiments. My group will provide the relevant calculations to determine dark matter reach, providing crucial input to experiment on which targets should be developed. We will also provide an effective field theory framework to understand which types of experiments are most sensitive to each interaction type. The second of these directions is on probes of dark matter substructure as a mean to constrain, or observe, models of dark matter. The standard ΛCDM paradigm assumes that the dark matter density perturbations are adiabatic, scale invariant, and produced during inflation. However, many standard models of dark matter will produce modifications of this prediction, such as axion models with symmetry broken below the inflationary scale. Remarkably, we have limited direct measurements of the dark matter clumpiness at mass scales below dwarf galaxies. This allows for the possibility of observing modifications from vanilla ΛCDM due to particle dynamics. In many cases, simulations of dark matter structure in the presence of non-scale invariant fluctu- ations are understudied or completely lacking. I plan to develop both theoretical predictions for small scale structure in models with additional matter power on small scales, as well as observa- tional probes of small scale halos or clumps. One idea I have been recently focused on is pulsar timing, though my group will pursue a variety of lensing and astrometric probes. Lastly, the most risky direction involves spacetime fluctuations from quantum gravity. I showed that if one assumes that metric fluctuations in the Minkowski vacuum, at a surface separating a region in and out of causal contact (which we call a “horizon”), are determined by standard thermodynamic considerations at horizon, these metric fluctuations are large enough to observe in an interferometer with similar sensitivity to LIGO. In a follow-up paper we showed that these assumption holds for the vacuum in AdS/CFT. In future work, I plan to connect this work to recent soft graviton results, to frame this work in a concrete Randall-Sundrum model, and to work out concrete phenomenological predictions from the model. This work unquestionably takes a less trodden path, and works well as part of a well-rounded portfolio of less and more risky ideas. Particle physics is currently at a juncture which requires bold exploration of qualitatively new directions. This proposal outlines some of my plans over the coming years in these directions, leaving room also for surprises.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Amplification of primordial perturbations from the rise or fall of the inflaton

The next generation of cosmic microwave background, gravitational wave, and large scale structure, experiments will provide an unprecedented opportunity to probe the primordial power spectrum on small scales. An exciting possibility for what lurks on small scales is a sharp rise in the primordial power spectrum: this can lead to the formation of primordial black holes, providing a dark matter candidate or the black holes observed by the LIGO-Virgo collaboration. In this study we develop a mechanism for the amplification of the small-scale primordial power spectrum, in the context of single-field inflation with a step-like feature in the inflaton potential. Specifically, we consider both the upward and the downward step in the potential. We also discuss the possibility of the strong coupling between perturbations because the rapid changes of the potential derivatives with the time-dependent field value, caused by the step-like feature, could make the coupling stronger. As a result, we find that the perturbations can remain weakly coupled yet sufficiently enhanced if the step realizes the rapid changes of the potential derivatives in some fraction of an e-fold, Script O(P R 1/2) ≲ ΔN < 1, where P R is the power spectrum of the curvature perturbation at that time. We also discuss the PBH formation rate from the inflaton trapping at the local minimum, which can occur in the potential with an upward step.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mitigating foreground bias to the CMB lensing power spectrum for a CMB-HD survey

A promising way to measure the distribution of matter on small scales (k~10 h Mpc –1 ) is to use gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). CMB-HD, a proposed high-resolution, low-noise millimeter survey over half the sky, can measure the CMB lensing auto spectrum on such small scales enabling measurements that can distinguish between a cold dark matter (CDM) model and alternative models designed to solve problems with CDM on small scales. However, extragalactic foregrounds can bias the CMB lensing auto spectrum if left untreated. Here, we present a foreground mitigation strategy that provides a path to reduce the bias from two of the most dominant foregrounds, the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect and the cosmic infrared background. Given the level of realism included in our analysis, we find that the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich alone and the cosmic infrared background alone bias the lensing auto spectrum by 0.6σ and 1.1σ, respectively, in the lensing multipole range of Lϵ[5000,20000] for a CMB-HD survey; combined these foregrounds yield a bias of only 1.3σ. Including these foregrounds, we also find that a CMB-HD survey can distinguish between a CDM model and a 10 –22 eV fuzzy dark matter model at the 5σ level. These results provide an important step in demonstrating that foreground contamination can be sufficiently reduced to enable a robust measurement of the small-scale matter power spectrum with CMB-HD.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Integrating agrivoltaics into smallholder farming systems to enhance food production and irrigation efficiency under climate stress

Smallholder agricultural growers and entrepreneurs (SAGE) have a crucial role in sustaining food security; their cultivation accounts for roughly 30% of global crop production and contributes substantially to the diversity and nutritional value of food systems. Despite their awareness of and flexibility to adapt to productivity challenges, SAGE communities remain highly vulnerable to heat and drought stress, which threatens both livelihoods and local food availability. While intensification and adaptive farm practices offer partial resilience, their capacity to buffer sudden climatic extremes remains limited. Agrivoltaics, the dual use of land for solar electricity generation and crop cultivation, has emerged as a promising strategy to enhance agricultural productivity and its resilience to climate extremes by altering microclimatic conditions. Although proven effective in hot and arid regions, the benefits of agrivoltaics for temperate climates and small-scale farms remain minimally explored. To address this gap, we evaluated the performance of a small-scale agrivoltaics system in a temperate climate for high-value crops, including leafy vegetables and garlic. We investigate whether the system can (i) protect crops during extreme heat events and (ii) enhance productivity and reduce irrigation requirements during hot and dry periods unsuitable for conventional production. Our findings provide evidence that agrivoltaics is a climate-resilient farming strategy under current and projected climate scenarios, capable of improving yields (by +43% to +127% for the leafy vegetables grown) and reducing water consumption, while creating complementary economic opportunities through decentralized energy generation systems. This work supports the integration of agrivoltaics into small-scale agricultural systems as an innovative pathway to strengthen food security, bolster farmer livelihoods, and enable multiple co-benefits from broader solar energy adoption.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Conditional analysis of temperature and strain rate effects on dissipation structure in turbulent non-premixed jet flames

Here, this work presents results from simultaneous high-resolution temperature and velocity measurements in a series of turbulent non-premixed jet flames. The filtered Rayleigh scattering (FRS)-based temperature measurements demonstrate sufficient signal-to-noise (SNR) and spatial resolution to estimate the smallest scalar length scales and accurately determine dissipation rate fields. A comprehensive set of conditional statistics are used to characterize the small-scale structure, including the dependence of dissipation layer widths on Reynolds number, temperature, and dissipation magnitude. In general, the dissipation layer thickness decrease with increasing Reynolds number and increase with increasing temperature. However, dissipation layer widths show two distinct behaviors with respect to dissipation magnitude. For small dissipation values, increases in magnitude results in broadening of the dissipation layer, while for larger magnitude values of dissipation, the layer widths are thinned, highlighting the complexity of small-scale turbulent mixing. Additionally, measured ratios of the dissipation layer width to the Batchelor length scale are consistent across all Reynolds numbers and agree with previous studies in non-reacting flows. The unique aspect about the current set of measurements is the ability to examine the interaction of dissipation structure with turbulent flow parameters for the first time in turbulent non-premixed flames. Particularly, the strain rate/dissipation relationship is examined and compared to previous studies in non-reacting flows. It is found that the dissipation layers tend to align normal to the principal compressive strain axis and this tendency increases with increasing Reynolds number. For the lowest Reynolds number case, no dependence of the dissipation layer width nor dissipation rate magnitude on strain rate is found. However, for higher Reynolds numbers, a strong dependence of the dissipation layer width and dissipation rate magnitude on the principal compressive strain rate is observed. These results indicate the direct role of the compressive strain rate field on small-scale mixing structure in reacting flows.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Cosmic-Ray Feedback on Bistable Interstellar Medium Turbulence

Abstract While cosmic rays ( E ≳ 1 GeV) are well coupled to a galaxy’s interstellar medium (ISM) at scales of L > 100 pc, adjusting stratification and driving outflows, their impact on small scales is less clear. Based on calculations of the cosmic-ray diffusion coefficient from observations of the grammage in the Milky Way, cosmic rays have little time to dynamically impact the ISM on those small scales. Using numerical simulations, we explore how more complex cosmic-ray transport could allow cosmic rays to couple to the ISM on small scales. We create a two-zone model of cosmic-ray transport, with the cosmic-ray diffusion coefficient set at the estimated Milky Way value in cold gas but smaller in warm gas. We compare this model to simulations with a constant diffusion coefficient. Quicker diffusion through cold gas allows more cold gas to form compared to a simulation with a constant, small diffusion coefficient. However, slower diffusion in warm gas allows cosmic rays to take energy from the turbulent cascade anisotropically. This cosmic-ray energization comes at the expense of turbulent energy which would otherwise be lost during radiative cooling. Finally, we show our two-zone model is capable of matching observational estimates of the grammage for some transport paths through the simulation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Large-scale white noise and cosmology

The generation of white noise on large scales is a generic property of the dynamics of physical systems described by local nonlinear partial differential equations. Nonlinearities prevent the small-scale dynamics from being erased by smoothing. Unresolved small-scale dynamics act as an uncorrelated (white or Poissonian) noise (seemingly stochastic but actually deterministic) contribution to large-scale dynamics. This white noise exists even when the dynamics is very nearly linear. In cases where the power spectrum is sub-Poissonian on large scales, this noise will dominate on the largest scale power no matter the amplitude of the inhomogeneities. Such is the case in the standard model of cosmology, where the primordial density power spectrum is expected to have an almost Harrison-Zel’dovich, P [ k ] ∼ k , spectrum on a much broader range of scales than can be observed. Even though linear gravitational evolution dominates nonlinear corrections by a factor of ∼ 10 5 , the nonobservation of white noise on the Hubble scale precludes the extrapolation of this power law below the comoving 1 pc scale. More generally, observation or nonobservation of large-scale white noise provides a powerful probe of the Universe on very small scales in the early Universe. Gravitational radiation, phase transitions, vorticity, and running of the spectral index are all phenomena that can be probed with large-scale white noise. Large-scale white noise is a nonoptional feature of all cosmological models but one which has not heretofore been appreciated.

Barenboim, Gabriela [Valencia U., IFIC; Valencia U↗

High-Performance Simulation of Dynamic Hydrologic Exchange and Implications for Surrogate Flow and Reactive Transport Modeling in a Large River Corridor

Hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) have environmental significance in riverine ecosystems. Key river channel factors that influence the spatial and temporal variations of HEFs include river stage, riverbed morphology, and riverbed hydraulic conductivity. However, their impacts on HEFs were often evaluated independently or on small scales. In this study, we numerically evaluated the combined interactions of these factors on HEFs using a high-performance simulator, PFLOTRAN, for subsurface flow and transport. The model covers 51 square kilometers of a selected river corridor with large sinuosity along the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River in Washington, US. Three years of spatially distributed hourly river stages were applied to the riverbed. Compared to the simulation when riverbed heterogeneity is not ignored, the simulation using homogeneous riverbed conductivity underestimated HEFs, especially upwelling from lateral features, and overestimated the mean residence times derived from particle tracking. To derive a surrogate model for the river corridor, we amended the widely used transient storage model (TSM) for riverine solute study at reach scale with reactions. By treating the whole river corridor as a batch reactor, the temporal changes in the exchange rate coefficient for the TSM were derived from the dynamic residence time estimated from the hourly PFLOTRAN results. The TSM results were evaluated against the effective concentrations in the hyporheic zone calculated from the PFLOTRAN simulations. Our results show that there is potential to parameterize surrogate models such as TSM amended with biogeochemical reactions while incorporating small-scale process understandings and the signature of time-varying streamflow to advance the mechanistic understanding of river corridor processes at reach to watershed scales. However, the assumption of a well-mixed storage zone for TSM should be revisited when redox-sensitive reactions in the storage zones play important roles in river corridor functioning.

Fang, Yilin↗

Subtask 1.3 – Integrated Carbon Capture and Storage for North Dakota Ethanol Production

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with Red Trail Energy, LLC (RTE), a North Dakota ethanol producer; the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) Renewable Energy Program (REP); and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), conducted a feasibility and implementation study for a commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) effort. This subtask provided technical support and developed recommended practices of how small-scale industrial CO2 emitters (<1,000,000 tonnes of CO2 emitted annually) may economically deploy CCS. The 64-million-gallon dry mill RTE ethanol facility, emitting an average 180,000 tonnes of CO2 annually, was the subject of the case study. The positive outcome of this research, which shows technical and economic potential for ethanol–CCS in North Dakota, has resulted in RTE acquiring an approved Permit to Drill on December 2, 2019, for a stratigraphic test well in early 2020, a necessary step toward a North Dakota CO2 Storage Facility Permit (SFP) for the RTE CCS effort. Outcomes include 1) validating the Broom Creek Formation as a regional target for CCS, 2) determining the full carbon life cycle of an industrial fuel production facility with CCS, 3) developing a field implementation plan (FIP) for small-scale CCS, and 4) determining the validity and pathway for using CCS to meet low-carbon fuel (LCF) standards. The technical team included the EERC, RTE, Trimeric Corporation, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Computer Modelling Group (CMG). Findings from activities conducted November 2016 – May 2020 are summarized as follows. Several key steps have been accomplished toward validating the Broom Creek Formation as a CO2 injection and storage target at the RTE CCS site, including verification of the presence and structure of sandstone layers that may comprise the potential CO2 storage reservoir and the several thousand feet of overlying confining zone. Work included site characterization using existing data, interpretation of seismic data within the study area, and geologic modeling simulation of CO2 injection. Interpreted results estimate 3000 feet of confining zone between the Broom Creek Formation (storage target) and the lowermost underground source of drinking water (e.g., the Fox Hills Formation). The thickness of the Broom Creek injection target varies 230–420 ft within the survey area. Results were used to inform the location of a stratigraphic test well and associated characterization test program. No impediments were identified within the targeted CO2 storage complex that would prevent the project from moving forward. A stratigraphic test well is the next step to validate these results and to acquire remaining data necessary to develop a North Dakota CO2 SFP application. The EERC generated full carbon life cycle estimates for CCS integration with the RTE ethanol facility. Results indicated that an average 40% reduction in CO2 emissions is possible through CCS implementation. Approximately half of the carbon in the overall life cycle for a dry mill ethanol plant is generated through the fermentation process and emitted to the atmosphere; this is the CO2 stream targeted for CCS. The remaining carbon is attributed to corn feedstock farming (diesel, fertilizer), energy for fuel processing (natural gas, electricity), and transportation (diesel) of the fuel product. Life cycle carbon estimates are also affected by the anticipated energy consumption of a potential capture facility, which depend on the type of CO2 product generated. For example, a 30%–40% net CO2 emission reduction is estimated if a liquefied CO2 facility were incorporated compared to a 40%–50% net CO2 reduction if a supercritical “injection-grade” CO2 product is generated; i.e., more energy is required to further refine the CO2 stream, affecting the full carbon life cycle estimates. A CCS FIP was developed and initiated at the RTE CCS site, resulting in the development of several guidance documents: a CO2 Capture Process Design Package, a North Dakota CO2 geologic Storage Permits Template, and a Public Outreach Package for CCS in North Dakota. General FIP components include CO2 capture system, pipeline and well designs; monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) plans; geologic characterization and testing programs; and permitting and outreach plans. Vendor bids were also acquired for the CO2 liquefaction facility. Near-surface characterization (groundwater and soil gas sampling) and geologic characterization (seismic survey) were initiated to inform development of a UIC Class VI-compliant MVA plan compliant with a North Dakota CO2 SFP. Designs (well and geologic testing) were completed for a stratigraphic test well compliant with a North Dakota CO2 SFP. In addition, the outreach plan was executed, including community open houses, meetings with city/county/state officials, and development of public materials. Although other entities continued to mature incentive programs in 2019–2020, California and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) currently provide the most advanced economic opportunities for CCS integrated with fuel production. The California Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) adopted a CCS Protocol in January 2019, allowing submittal of a design-based pathway (DBP) application for an approved temporary (not certified) carbon intensity value for a fully engineered facility. An ethanol–CCS DBP application to the California LCFS Program (officially approved February 28, 2020) was developed to show that the RTE CCS effort meets LCFS requirements. The approved DBP provides confidence to advance the project and supports potential investments. Other entities continue to mature incentive programs. The IRS issued guidance in February 2020 that addresses the definition of beginning of construction and revenue procedure on partnerships for the Enhancement of Carbon Dioxide Sequestration Credit (a.k.a. Section 45Q) CCS tax credit program; the IRS anticipates issuing further guidance on issues such as secure geologic storage, utilization qualifications, and recapture of claimed credits. Maturing incentive programs coupled with workable permitting regulations provide confidence to advance CCS projects in North Dakota and support financial investment to proceed with designing, constructing, and implementing CCS projects at small-scale fuel production facilities. The largest hurdles for CCS implementation at small-scale industrial systems are often business/economic-related (i.e., not technical). Market uncertainty already exists for agriculture-based alternative fuels such as corn ethanol, for which production has increased by ~33%, and prices have correspondingly lowered since 2015. Passing the Section 45Q tax credit program improves economic feasibility for CCS but may require external investors for a small business to achieve maximum benefits. Public–private partnerships with NDIC and DOE have resulted in foundational technical and regulatory knowledge, growing stakeholder confidence, and a pathway to implementation that enables similar industrial CCS projects in the region to advance. This subtask was funded through the EERC–DOE Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by NDIC and RTE. The authors would also like to thank CMG, ESRI, IHS, Neuralog, and Schlumberger for allowing the use of their software packages in support of this work.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Using Dense Array Waveform Correlations to Build a Velocity Model with Stochastic Variability

In an ongoing effort to improve 3D seismic-wave propagation modeling for frequencies up to 10 Hz, we used cross correlations between vertical-component waveforms from an underground chemical explosion to estimate the statistical properties of small-scale velocity heterogeneities. The waveforms were recorded by a dense 2D seismic array deployed during the Source Physics Experiments for event number 5 (SPE-5) in a series of six underground chemical explosions, conducted at the Nevada National Security Site. The array consisted of 996 geophones with a 50–100 m grid spacing, deployed at the SPE site at the north end of the Yucca Flat basin. The SPE were conducted to investigate the generation and propagation of seismic and acoustic waves from underground explosions. Comparisons of decay rates of waveform cross correlations as function of interstation distance, computed for observed and synthetic seismograms from the SPE-5 chemical explosion, were used to constrain statistical properties of correlated stochastic velocity perturbations representing small-scale heterogeneities added to a geology-based velocity model of the Yucca Flat basin. Using comparisons between recorded and simulated waveform cross correlations, we were able to recover sets of statistical properties of small-scale velocity perturbations in the velocity model that produce the best-fit between the recorded and simulated ground motion. The stochastic velocity fluctuations in the velocity model that produced the smallest misfits have a horizontal correlation distance of between 400 and 800 m, a vertical correlation distance between 100 and 200 m, and a standard deviation of 10% from the nominal model velocity in the alluvium basin layers. They also have a horizontal correlation distance of 1000 m, a vertical correlation distance of 250 m, and a standard deviation of 6% in the underlying and consolidated sedimentary layers, up to a depth of 4 km. Comparisons between observed and simulated wavefields were used to assess the proposed small-scale heterogeneity enhancements to the Yucca Flat basin model. We found that adding a depth-resolved stochastic variability to the geology-based velocity model improves the overall performance of ground-motion simulations of an SPE-5 explosion in the modeled frequency range up to 10 Hz. The results may be applicable to other similar basins.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sustainable hydrogen manufacturing via renewable-integrated intensified process for refueling stations

The widescale consumer adoption of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (HFCEVs) is currently hindered by the high cost of small-scale hydrogen generation and the lack of extensive hydrogen refueling infrastructure. Natural gas-based hydrogen is cheaper when produced in large volumes but is also associated with high CO 2 emissions. To counter these challenges, we propose a hybrid approach where both natural gas and renewables are integrated in a synergistic manner using a dynamic process intensification technology that can be deployed on-site for meeting local demands of refueling stations. The technology is based on sorption enhanced steam methane reforming (SE-SMR) that utilizes a combination of reaction with in-situ CO 2 adsorption for enhancing process modularity, productivity and efficiency thereby outperforming conventional SMR at small scale. We develop a mixed integer linear programming (MILP)-based optimization framework for simultaneous design and scheduling of the SE-SMR process. The simultaneous optimization provides a synergistic combination whereby the renewables allow sustainable hydrogen manufacturing and the dynamic SE-SMR allows optimal use of the intermittency of the renewables. The U.S. nationwide analysis indicates that for futuristic renewable prices and a hydrogen production capacity of 2 ton/day, hydrogen can be produced at 50% less cost compared to the current cost of small-scale hydrogen generation. Finally, the city-wise analysis with varying hydrogen demand shows that even with just 5% HFCEV market penetration level, hydrogen production cost less than $3/kg can be obtained at small scales across the United States with even cheaper hydrogen for large cities.

08 HYDROGEN↗