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DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven design of novel halide perovskite alloys

The great tunability of the properties of halide perovskites presents new opportunities for optoelectronic applications as well as significant challenges associated with exploring combinatorial chemical spaces. Here, in this work, we develop a framework powered by high-throughput computations and machine learning for the design and prediction of mixed cation halide perovskite alloys. In a chemical space of ABX 3 perovskites with a selected set of options for A, B, and X species, pseudo-cubic structures with B-site mixing are simulated using density functional theory (DFT) and several properties are computed, including stability, lattice constant, band gap, vacancy formation energy, refractive index, and optical absorption spectrum, using both semi-local and hybrid functionals. Neural networks (NN) are used to train predictive models for every property using tabulated elemental properties of A, B, and X site species as descriptors. Starting from a DFT dataset of 229 points, we use the trained NN models to predict the structural, energetic, electronic, and optical properties of an extensive dataset of 17955 compounds, and perform high-throughput screening in terms of stability, band gap, and defect tolerance, to obtain 392 promising compounds that are ranked as potential absorbers according to their photovoltaic figure of merit. Compositional trends in the screened set of attractive mixed cation halide perovskites are revealed and additional computations are performed on selected compounds. The data-driven design framework developed here is promising for designing novel mixed compositions and can be extended to a wider perovskite chemical space in terms of A, B, and X species, different kinds of mixing at the A, B, or X sites, non-cubic phases, and other properties of interest.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Radiance-based NIR v as a proxy for GPP of corn and soybean

Substantial uncertainty exists in daily and sub-daily gross primary production (GPP) estimation, which dampens accurate monitoring of the global carbon cycle. Here we find that near-infrared radiance of vegetation (NIR v,Rad ), defined as the product of observed NIR radiance and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), can accurately estimate corn and soybean GPP at daily and half-hourly time scales, benchmarked with multi-year tower-based GPP at three sites with different environmental and irrigation conditions. Overall, NIR v,Rad explains 84% and 78% variations of half-hourly GPP for corn and soybean, respectively, outperforming NIR reflectance of vegetation (NIR v,Ref ), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and far-red solar-induced fluorescence (SIF760). The strong linear relationship between NIR v,Rad and absorbed photosynthetically active radiation by green leaves (APAR green ), and that between APAR green and GPP, explain the good NIR v,Rad -GPP relationship. The NIR v,Rad -GPP relationship is robust and consistent across sites. The scalability and simplicity of NIR v,Rad indicate a great potential to estimate daily or sub-daily GPP from high-resolution and/or long-term satellite remote sensing data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying carbon budget, crop yields and their responses to environmental variability using the ecosys model for U.S. Midwestern agroecosystems

As one of the major agricultural production areas in the world, the United States (U.S.) Midwest plays a vital role in the global food supply and agricultural ecosystem services. Although significant efforts have been made in modeling the carbon cycle dynamics over this area, large uncertainty still exists in the previous simulations in terms of reproducing individual components of the carbon cycle and their responses to environmental variability. Here we evaluated the performance of an advanced agroecosystem model, ecosys, in simulating carbon budgets over the U.S. Midwest, considering both the magnitude of carbon flux/yield and its response to environmental (climate and soil) variability. We conducted model simulations and evaluations at 7 cropland eddy-covariance sites as well as over 293 counties of Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa in the U.S. Midwest. The site-level simulations showed that ecosys captured both the magnitude and seasonal patterns of carbon fluxes (i.e., net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE), ecosystem gross primary production (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (Reco)), leaf area index (LAI), and dynamic plant carbon allocation processes, with R2 equal to 0.92, 0.87, 0.87, and 0.78 for GPP, NEE, Reco, and LAI, respectively across all the sites compared with the observations. For regional scale simulations, ecosys reproduced the spatial distribution and interannual variability of corn and soybean yields with the constraints of observed yields and a new remotely sensed GPP product, with R2 of multi-year averaged simulated and observed yield equal 0.83 and 0.80 for corn and soybean, respectively. The simulated responses of carbon cycle dynamics to environmental variability were consistent with that from the empirical observations at both site and regional scales. Furthermore, our results demonstrated the applicability of ecosys in simulating the carbon cycle and soil carbon dynamics of the U.S. Midwestern agroecosystems under different climate and soil conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Aircraft and Ground Vehicle Winter Runway Friction Assessment

Some background information is given together with the scope and objectives of a 5-year, Joint Winter Runway Friction Measurement Program between the National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA), Transport Canada (TC), and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Participants recently completed the fourth winter season of testing. The primary objective of this effort is to perform instrumented aircraft and ground vehicle tests aimed at identifying a common number that all the different ground vehicle devices would report. This number, denoted the International Runway Friction Index (IRFI) will be related to all types of aircraft stopping performance. The range of test equipment, the test sites, test results and accomplishments, the extent of the substantial friction database compiled, and future test plans will be described. Several related studies have also been implemented including the effects of contaminant type on aircraft impingement drag and the effectiveness of various runway and aircraft de-icing chemical types and application rates. New equipment and techniques to measure surface frictional properties are also described. The status of an international friction index calibration device for use in ensuring accuracy of ground vehicle friction measurements will also be discussed. NASA considers the success of this joint program critical in terms of ensuring adequate ground handling capability in adverse weather conditions for future aircraft being designed and developed as well as improving the safety of current aircraft ground operations.

Yager, Thomas J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Morphology‐controlled synthesis of multi‐metal‐based spinel oxide nanocatalysts and their performance for oxygen reduction

Abstract We present a one‐pot colloidal synthesis method for producing monodisperse multi‐metal (Co, Mn, and Fe) spinel nanocrystals (NCs), including nanocubes, nano‐octahedra, and concave nanocubes. This study explores the mechanism of morphology control, showcasing the pivotal roles of metal precursors and capping ligands in determining the exposed crystal planes on the NC surface. The cubic spinel NCs, terminated with exclusive {100}‐facets, demonstrate superior electrocatalytic activity for the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) in alkaline media compared to their octahedral and concave cubic counterparts. Specifically, at 0.85 V, (CoMn)Fe 2 O 4 spinel oxide nanocubes achieve a high mass activity of 23.9 A/g and exhibit excellent stability, highlighting the promising ORR performance associated with {100}‐facets of multi‐metal spinel oxides over other low‐index and high‐index facets. Motivated by exploring the correlation between ORR performance and surface atom arrangement (active sites), surface element composition, as well as other factors, this study introduces a prospective approach for shape‐controlled synthesis of advanced spinel oxide NCs. It underscores the significance of catalyst shape control and suggests potential applications as nonprecious metal ORR electrocatalysts.

Li, Can↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fine Root and Soil Organic Carbon Depth Distributions are Inversely Related Across Fertility and Rainfall Gradients in Lowland Tropical Forests

Humid tropical forests contain some of the largest soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks on Earth. Much of this SOC is in subsoil, yet variation in the distribution of SOC through the soil profile remains poorly characterized across tropical forests. We used a correlative approach to quantify relationships among depth distributions of SOC, fine root biomass, nutrients and texture to 1 m depths across 43 lowland tropical forests in Panama. The sites span rainfall and soil fertility gradients, and these are largely uncorrelated for these sites. We used fitted b parameters to characterize depth distributions, where b is a numerical index based on an asymptotic relationship, such that larger b values indicate greater concentrations of root biomass or SOC at depth in the profile. Root b values ranged from 0.82 to 0.95 and were best predicted by soil pH and extractable potassium (K) stocks. For example, the three most acidic (pH < 4) and Kpoor (< 20 g K m -2 ) soils contained 76 ± 5% of fine root biomass from 0 to 10 cm depth, while the three least acidic (pH > 6.0) and most K-rich (> 50 g K m -2 ) soils contained only 41 ± 9% of fine root biomass at this depth. Root b and SOC b values were inversely related, such that a large fine root biomass in surface soils corresponded to large SOC stocks in subsoils (50–100 cm). SOC b values were best predicted by soil pH and base cation stocks, with the three most base-poor soils containing 34 ± 8% of SOC from 50 to 100 cm depth, and the three most base-rich soils containing just 9 ± 2% of SOC at this depth. Nutrient depth distributions were not related to Root b or SOC b values. Here, these data show that large surface root biomass stocks are associated with large subsoil C stocks in strongly weathered tropical soils. Further studies are required to evaluate why this occurs, and whether changes in surface root biomass, as may occur with global change, could in turn influence SOC storage in tropical forest subsoils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Switchgrass Biomass Yields Using a Spectral Vegetation Index Derived from Multispectral Satellite Imagery

Successful scaling of perennial bioenergy crop production requires a landscape design that optimizes the benefits of finite lands for people, communities, and environments. Utilizing marginal areas is the key to sustainable bioenergy crop production (Ssegane et al., 2015, 2016). Marginal areas are often small-sized lands and unevenly distributed across the agricultural landscape (Ssegane et al., 2016); thus, a systematic, semi-automated remote sensing method is needed as an effective means of estimating bioenergy crop yields across landscapes. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is currently developing a tool, Scaling Up Perennial Bioenergy Economics and Ecosystem Services Tool (SUPERBEEST), to identify marginal agricultural lands and quantify environmental and economic effects of perennial bioenergy crop production systems. The tool aims to provide users a path to foster the sustainable and productive integration of bioenergy crops in the Midwestern agricultural landscape. Reliable, cost-effective, and timely estimation of bioenergy crop yields using remote sensing would help calculate and track the success of integrated bioenergy crops in the landscape for those communities. Argonne previously conducted feasibility studies for estimating biomass yields for bioenergy feedstock, corn and perennial grass using spectral vegetation indices (SVIs)1 derived from optical imagery (Hamada et al., 2015, 2021). In both studies, SVIs, more specifically those sensitive to plant chlorophyll or nitrogen contents, showed potential for estimating or predicting biomass yields with a correlation of determination (R2) ranging from 0.54 to 0.96, indicating a value for further investigation as a viable means of quantifying bioenergy feedstock production across large landscapes. Thus, the goal of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of use of SVIs as a means of estimating or predicting switchgrass biomass yields at harvest using publicly available multispectral satellite imagery. The feasibility analysis was performed using four study areas of mature switchgrass located in Virginia. Objectives are to (1) examine the SVIs and establish their relationships with switchgrass biomass yields at harvest, (2) develop a parsimonious image processing model for predicting at-harvest yields by applying the relationships with the most promising spectral index and (3) map switchgrass yields predicted by the image processing model across the study sites. The calibration to field data will rely on switchgrass biomass yields determined by the baling method, representing a potential challenge to the analysis but an important practical aspect for future applications. With this research design, the study aimed to gain insights into enabling remote sensing-based estimation of bioenergy crop yields in a reliable, cost- effective, and timely manner across large, heterogeneous landscapes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Applications in Analyzing the Role of Shale Barriers and Baffles for CO2 Storage

This study uses machine learning to analyze microseismic data from the Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) and quantify CO₂ plume extents. By leveraging well logs, microseismic records, and CO₂ injection metrics, the research predicts subsurface CO₂ plume dynamics. Findings show vertical clustering of microseismic events near the injection well, with CO₂ periodically breaching barriers due to buoyancy. K-Means clustering performed best, achieving the highest Silhouette Score and lowest Davies-Bouldin Index. This capability is crucial for real-time monitoring and management of CO₂ sequestration sites, validated against physical models and IBDP data, reinforcing CO₂ geological sequestration's viability and enhancing management tools.

Carr, Timothy↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tropical Tree Crop Simulation with a Process-Based, Daily Timestep Simulation Model (ALMANAC): Description of Model Adaptation and Examples with Coffee and Cocoa Simulations

Coffee (Coffea species) and Cocoa (Theobroma cacao) are important cash crops grown in the tropics but traded globally. This study was conducted to apply the ALMANAC model to these crops for the first time, and to test its ability to simulate them under agroforestry management schemes and varying precipitation amounts. To create this simulation, coffee was grown on a site in Kaua’i, Hawai’i, USA, and cocoa was grown on a site in Sefwi Bekwai, Ghana. A stand-in for a tropical overstory tree was created for agroforestry simulations using altered parameters for carob, a common taller tropical tree for these regions. For both crops, ALMANAC was able to realistically simulate yields when compared to the collected total yield data. On Kaua’i, the mean simulated yield was 2% different from the mean measured yield, and in all three years, the simulated values were within 10% of the measured values. For cocoa, the mean simulated yield was 3% different from the mean measured yield and the simulated yield was within 10% of measured yields for all four available years. When precipitation patterns were altered, in Ghana, the wetter site showed lower percent changes in yield than the drier site in Hawai’i. When agroforestry-style management was simulated, a low Leaf Area Index (LAI) of the overstory showed positive or no effect on yields, but when LAI climbed too high, the simulation was able to show the detrimental effect this competition had on crop yields. These simulation results are supported by other literature documenting the effects of agroforestry on tropical crops. This research has applied ALMANAC to new crops and demonstrated its simulation of different management and environmental conditions. The results show promise for ALMANAC’s applicability to these scenarios as well as its potential to be further tested and utilized in new circumstances.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1982

Verification of LANDSAT imagery for morphametric and topological studies of drainage basins in a section of the western plateau of Sao Paulo State: Tiete-Aguapei watershed

The potential of using LANDSAT MSS imagery for morphometric and topological studies of drainage basins was verified. Using Tiete and Aguapei watershed (Western Plateau) as the test site because of its homogeneous landscape. Morphometric variables collected for ten drainage basins include: circularity index; river density; drainage density; topographic texture; areal and index length; basin parameter; and main river length 1st order and 2nd order channel length. The topographical variables determined were: order; magnitude; bifuraction ratio; weighted bifuraction ratio; number of segments; number of linking; trajectory length; and topological diameter. Data were collected on topographical maps at the scale of 1:250,000 and 1:59,000 and on LANDSAT imagery at the scale of 1:250,000. The results which were summarized on tables for further analysis, show that LANDSAT imagery can supply the lack of topographic charts for drainage studies.

Parada, N. D. J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Biogeochemical cycling and remote sensing

The present investigation is concerned with the role of remote sensing in the analysis of biochemical cycling. A general review is provided of the interest of NASA in biochemical cycling, taking into account an assessment of the state and dynamics of the pools and fluxes of four major elements (carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, sulfur), an understanding of the coupling and interaction of the biosphere and the atmosphere, and an understanding of the biosphere and the oceans. Attention is given to biogeochemical cycling science issues, the potential remote sensing role, the vegetation type, aspects of vegetation structure, the leaf area index, the canopy height, functional relationships, environmental and soil variables, questions of experimental design, sampling sites and ground data, and radiometric data and analysis.

Peterson, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1986

COVER Project and Earth resources research transition

Results of research in the remote sensing of natural boreal forest vegetation (the COVER project) are summarized. The study objectives were to establish a baseline forest test site; develop transforms of LANDSAT MSS and TM data for forest composition, biomass, leaf area index, and net primary productivity; and perform tasks required for testing hypotheses regarding observed spectral responses to changes in leaf area index in aspen. In addition, the transfer and documentation of data collected in the COVER project (removed from the Johnson Space Center following the discontinuation of Earth resources research at that facility) is described.

Botkin, D. B.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Limits on static shape control for space structures

This paper deals with correction of shape distortion due to zero-mean normally distributed errors in structural sizes. The concept of ideal actuators - actuators that can produce any desired displacement field - is introduced. Using this concept, a bound on the possible improvement in the expected value of the root-mean-square shape error is obtained. The shape correction associated with the ideal actuators is also characterized. An actuator effectiveness index is developed by comparing the displacement field generated by the actuator to the ideal. The results are specialized to a simple form for truss structures composed of nominally identical members. The bound and effectiveness index are tested on a 55-m radiometer antenna truss structure. It is found that previously obtained results for optimum actuators had a performance close to the bound obtained here. Also, it is found that large numbers of actuators are needed for large reductions in shape errors. Furthermore, the actuators associated with the optimum design are shown to have high effectiveness indices. Since only a small fraction of truss elements tend to have high effectiveness indices, the use of the effectiveness index can greatly reduce the number of truss members that need to be considered actuator sites.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Research support of the WETNET Program

This study examines various aspects of the Microwave Vegetation Index (MVI). MVI is a derived signal created by differencing the spectral response of the 37 GHz horizontally and vertically polarized passive microwave signals. The microwave signal employed to derive this index is thought to be primarily influenced by vegetation structure, vegetation growth, standing water, and precipitation. The state of California is the study site for this research. Imagery from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) is used for the creation of MVI datasets analyzed in this research. The object of this research is to determine whether MVI corresponds with some quantifiable vegetation parameter (such as vegetation density) or whether the index is more affected by known biogeophysical parameters such antecedent precipitation. A secondary question associated with the above is whether the vegetation attributes that MVI is employed to determine can be more easily and accurately evaluated by other remote sensing means. An important associated question to be addressed in the study is the effect of different multi-temporal composting techniques on the derived MVI dataset. This work advances our understanding of the fundamental nature of MVI by studying vegetation as a mixture of structural types, such as forest and grassland. The study further advances our understanding by creating multitemporal precipitation datasets to compare the affects of precipitation upon MVI. This work will help to lay the groundwork for the use of passive microwave spectral information either as an adjunct to visible and near infrared imagery in areas where that is feasible or for the use of passive microwave alone in areas of moderate cloud coverage. In this research, an MVI dataset, spanning the period February 15, 1989 through April 25, 1990, has been created using National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) supplied brightness temperature data. Information from the DMSP satellite 37 GHz wavelength SSM/I sensor in both horizontal and vertical polarization has been processed using the MVI algorithm. In conjunction with the MVI algorithm a multitemporal compositing technique was used to create datasets that correspond to 14 day periods. In this technical report, Section Two contains background information on the State of California and the three MVI study sites. Section Three describes the methods used to create the MVI and independent variables datasets. Section Four presents the results of the experiment. Section Five summarizes and concludes the work.

Estes, John E.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Cutting out the Middleman: Calibrating and Validating a Dynamic Vegetation Model (ED2-PROSPECT5) Using Remotely Sensed Surface Reflectance

Canopy radiative transfer is the primary mechanism by which models relate vegetation composition and state to the surface energy balance, which is important to light- and temperature-sensitive plant processes as well as understanding land–atmosphere feedbacks. In addition, certain parameters (e.g., specific leaf area, SLA) that have an outsized influence on vegetation model behavior can be constrained by observations of shortwave reflectance, thus reducing model predictive uncertainty. Importantly, calibrating against radiative transfer outputs allows models to directly use remote sensing reflectance products without relying on highly derived products (such as MODIS leaf area index) whose assumptions may be incompatible with the target vegetation model and whose uncertainties are usually not well quantified. Here, we created the EDR model by coupling the two-stream representation of canopy radiative transfer in the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 (ED2) with a leaf radiative transfer model (PROSPECT-5) and a simple soil reflectance model to predict full-range, high-spectral-resolution surface reflectance that is dependent on the underlying ED2 model state. We then calibrated this model against estimates of hemispherical reflectance (corrected for directional effects) from the NASA Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and survey data from 54 temperate forest plots in the northeastern United States. The calibration significantly reduced uncertainty in model parameters related to leaf biochemistry and morphology and canopy structure for five plant functional types. Using a single common set of parameters across all sites, the calibrated model was able to accurately reproduce surface reflectance for sites with highly varied forest composition and structure. However, the calibrated model's predictions of leaf area index (LAI) were less robust, capturing only 46 % of the variability in the observations. Comparing the ED2 radiative transfer model with another two-stream soil–leaf–canopy radiative transfer model commonly used in remote sensing studies (PRO4SAIL) illustrated structural errors in the ED2 representation of direct radiation backscatter that resulted in systematic underestimation of reflectance. In addition, we also highlight that, to directly compare with a two-stream radiative transfer model like EDR, we had to perform an additional processing step to convert the directional reflectance estimates of AVIRIS to hemispherical reflectance (also known as “albedo”). In future work, we recommend that vegetation models add the capability to predict directional reflectance, to allow them to more directly assimilate a wide range of airborne and satellite reflectance products. We ultimately conclude that despite these challenges, using dynamic vegetation models to predict surface reflectance is a promising avenue for model calibration and validation using remote sensing data.

Alexey N Shiklomanov↗

NASA NTRS1982

Estimating total standing herbaceous biomass production with LANDSAT MSS digital data

Rangeland biomass data were correlated with spectral vegetation indices, derived from LANDSAT MSS data. LANDSAT data from five range and three other land use sites in Willacv and Cameron Counties were collected on October 17 and December 10, 1975, and on July 31 and September 23, 1976. The overall linear correlation of total standing herbaceous biomass with the LANDSAT derived perpendicular vegetation index was highly significant (r = 0.90**) for these four dates. The standard error of estimate was 722 kg/ha. Biomass data were recorded for two of these range sites for 8 months (March through October) during the 1976 growing season. Standing green biomass accounted for most of the increase in herbage, starting in June and ending about September and October. These results indicate that satellite data may be useful for the estimation of total standing herbaceous biomass production that could aid range managers in assessing range condition and animal carrying capacities of large and inaccessible range holdings.

Richardson, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Photosynthetic fractionation of 13C and concentrations of dissolved CO2 in the central equatorial Pacific during the last 255,000 years

Carbon isotopically based estimates of CO2 levels have been generated from a record of the photosynthetic fractionation of 13C [is equivalent to epsilon(p)] in a central equatorial Pacific sediment core that spans the last approximately 255 ka. Contents of 13C in phytoplanktonic biomass were determined by analysis of C37 alkadienones. These compounds are exclusive products of Prymnesiophyte algae which at present grow most abundantly at depths of 70-90 m in the central equatorial Pacific. A record of the isotopic composition of dissolved CO2 was constructed from isotopic analyses of the planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, which calcifies at 70-90 m in the same region. Values of epsilon(p), derived by comparison of the organic and inorganic delta values, were transformed to yield concentrations of dissolved CO2 [is equivalent to c(e)] based on a new, site-specific calibration of the relationship between epsilon(p) and c(e). The calibration was based on reassessment of existing epsilon(p) versus c(e) data, which support a physiologically based model in which epsilon(p) is inversely related to c(e). Values of PCO2, the partial pressure of CO2 that would be in equilibrium with the estimated concentrations of dissolved CO2, were calculated using Henry's law and the temperature determined from the alkenone-unsaturation index U(K/37). Uncertainties in these values arise mainly from uncertainties about the appropriateness (particularly over time) of the site-specific relationship between epsilon(p) and 1/c(e). These are discussed in detail and it is concluded that the observed record of epsilon(p) most probably reflects significant variations in delta pCO2, the ocean-atmosphere disequilibrium, which appears to have ranged from approximately 110 microatmospheres during glacial intervals (ocean > atmosphere) to approximately 60 microatmospheres during interglacials. Fluxes of CO2 to the atmosphere would thus have been significantly larger during glacial intervals. If this were characteristic of large areas of the equatorial Pacific, then greater glacial sinks for the equatorially evaded CO2 must have existed elsewhere. Statistical analysis of air-sea pCO2 differences and other parameters revealed significant (p<0.01) inverse correlations of delta pCO2 with sea surface temperature and with the mass accumulation rate of opal. The former suggests response to the strength of upwelling, the latter may indicate either drawdown of CO2 by siliceous phytoplankton or variation of [CO2]/[Si(OH)4] ratios in upwelling waters.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Phenological Controls on Carbon Dynamics in Dryland Sagebrush Ecosystems

Dryland ecosystems play an important role in determining how precipitation anomalies affect terrestrial carbonfluxes at regional to global scales. Thus, to understand how climate change may affect the global carbon cycle,we must also be able to understand and model its effects on dryland vegetation. Dynamic Global VegetationModels (DGVMs) are an important tool for modeling ecosystem dynamics, but they often struggle to reproduceseasonal patterns of plant productivity. Because the phenological niche of many plant species is linked to bothtotal productivity and competitive interactions with other plants, errors in how process-based models representphenology hinder our ability to predict climate change impacts. This may be particularly problematic in drylandecosystems where many species have developed a complex phenology in response to seasonal variability in bothmoisture and temperature. Here, we examine how uncertainty in key parameters as well as the structure ofexisting phenology routines affect the ability of a DGVM to match seasonal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) andgross primary productivity (GPP) across a temperature and precipitation gradient. First, we optimized modelparameters using a combination of site-level eddy covariance data and remotely-sensed LAI data. Second, wemodified the model to include a semi-deciduous phenology type and added flexibility to the representation ofgrass phenology. While optimizing parameters reduced model bias, the largest gains in model performance wereassociated with the development of our new representation of phenology. This modified model was able to bettercapture seasonal patterns of both leaf area index (R2=0.75) and gross primary productivity (R2=0.84), thoughits ability to estimate total annual GPP depended on using eddy covariance data for optimization. The new modelalso resulted in a more realistic outcome of modeled competition between grass and shrubs. These findingsdemonstrate the importance of improving how DGVMs represent phenology in order to accurately forecastclimate change impacts in dryland ecosystems.

Ecosystem model Phenology Parameter optimization E↗