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At least 163 records · Page 9

NMME Monthly / Seasonal Forecasts for NASA SERVIR Applications Science

This work details use of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) experimental forecasts as drivers for Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in the NASA / USAID initiative, SERVIR (a Spanish acronym meaning "to serve"). SERVIR integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor and forecast environmental changes and to improve response to natural disasters. Through the use of DSSs whose "front ends" are physically based models, the SERVIR activity provides a natural testbed to determine the extent to which NMME monthly to seasonal projections enable scientists, educators, project managers and policy implementers in developing countries to better use probabilistic outlooks of seasonal hydrologic anomalies in assessing agricultural / food security impacts, water availability, and risk to societal infrastructure. The multi-model NMME framework provides a "best practices" approach to probabilistic forecasting. The NMME forecasts are generated at resolution more coarse than that required to support DSS models; downscaling in both space and time is necessary. The methodology adopted here applied model output statistics where we use NMME ensemble monthly projections of sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation from 30 years of hindcasts with observations of precipitation and temperature for target regions. Since raw model forecasts are well-known to have structural biases, a cross-validated multivariate regression methodology (CCA) is used to link the model projected states as predictors to the predictands of the target region. The target regions include a number of basins in East and South Africa as well as the Ganges / Baramaputra / Meghna basin complex. The MOS approach used address spatial downscaling. Temporal disaggregation of monthly seasonal forecasts is achieved through use of a tercile bootstrapping approach. We interpret the results of these studies, the levels of skill by several metrics, and key uncertainties.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Industrial Assessment Center for Energy Efficiency, Smart Manufacturing and Cyber Security of Illinois and Northwestern Indiana Small and Medium Sized Manufacturing Companies and Water Facilities (Final Technical Report)

The University of Illinois Chicago (UIC) established and implemented a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored Industrial Assessment Center (IAC) from September 1, 2016 through December 31, 2021. The established UIC IAC focused on providing 1) technical assistance to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and water and wastewater facilities in Illinois and northwestern Indiana and 2) education and training university students developing the future energy workforce. The technical assessments incorporated energy efficiency, increasing productivity via smart manufacturing, energy management systems, enhancing on-site cyber security practices, and the promotion of DOE best practices and tools. The educational training enabled UIC faculty and staff to provide classroom education, exposure to industry research, multiple targeted training sessions, real world experience with industry professionals, and live training to implement professional grade audits and recommendations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Hydrologic and Agricultural Earth Observations and Modeling for the Water-Food Nexus

In a globalizing and rapidly-developing world, reliable, sustainable access to water and food are inextricably linked to each other and basic human rights. Achieving security and sustainability in both requires recognition of these linkages, as well as continued innovations in both science and policy. We present case studies of how Earth observations are being used in applications at the nexus of water and food security: crop monitoring in support of G20 global market assessments, water stress early warning for USAID, soil moisture monitoring for USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service, and identifying food security vulnerabilities for climate change assessments for the UN and the UK international development agency. These case studies demonstrate that Earth observations are essential for providing the data and scalability to monitor relevant indicators across space and time, as well as understanding agriculture, the hydrological cycle, and the water-food nexus. The described projects follow the guidelines for co-developing useable knowledge for sustainable development policy. We show how working closely with stakeholders is essential for transforming NASA Earth observations into accurate, timely, and relevant information for water-food nexus decision support. We conclude with recommendations for continued efforts in using Earth observations for addressing the water-food nexus and the need to incorporate the role of energy for improved food and water security assessments

Food Security↗

Integration of Safety, Security, and Safeguards During Design and Operations: A Technical Assessment and Regulatory Considerations for Advanced Reactor and Advanced Fuel Fabrication Facilities

This report presents the current state of knowledge, technology, methodologies, and tools that could be implemented to realize the robust integration of safety, security, and safeguards (3S) for advanced nuclear reactors (ARs) and advanced nuclear fuel cycle facilities. This report was motivated by the global development of ARs which are expected to play a key role in meeting domestic energy and climate objectives. Domestically, with many ARs in the early design phase, the integration of 3S provides an opportunity to achieve risk reduction while using less resources than traditional light water reactors by leveraging interdependencies and synergies between each domain. In addition, domestic policy considerations encourage the convergence of each 3S domain through facility design and operations. Therefore, there is a need to better understand the interdependencies and integration between 3S across ARs and advanced reactor fuel cycle facilities’ lifecycles including design, construction, and operational phases.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Assessing the potential of composite confining systems for secure and long-term CO 2 retention in geosequestration

A potential geologic target for CO 2 storage should ensure secure containment of injected CO 2 . Traditionally, this objective has been achieved by targeting reservoirs with overlying seals-regionally extensive, low permeability units that have been proven capable of retaining buoyant fluid accumulations over geologic time. However, considering that the amount of CO 2 is limited by a decadal injection period, vertical migration of CO 2 can be effectively halted by a composite system of discontinuous shale/silt/mudstone barriers in bedded sedimentary rocks. Here, we studied the impact of depositional architectures in a composite confining system on CO 2 migration and confinement at reservoir scale. We stochastically generated lithologically heterogeneous reservoir models containing discontinuous barriers consistent with statistical distributions of net-sand-to-gross-shale ratio (NTG) and horizontal correlation lengths derived from well log data and observations of producing hydrocarbon fields in Southern Louisiana. We then performed an extensive suite of reservoir simulations of CO 2 injection and post-injection to evaluate the sensitivity of CO 2 plume migration and pressure response of the composite system to a series of geologic and fluid parameters including the lateral continuity of barriers, NTG, permeability anisotropy within the sand body, and capillary pressure contrast between the sand and shale facies. The results indicate that lateral continuity of barriers and NTG are the dominant controls on CO 2 plume geometry and pressure build-up in the reservoir, while the impact of NTG is particularly pronounced. The significance of intraformational barriers becomes apparent as they facilitate the local capillary trapping of CO 2 . Those barriers improve the pore space occupancy by promoting a more dispersed shape of the plume and ultimately retard the buoyancy-driven upward migration of the plume post injection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Explosives Threat Assessment Working Group Terminology

This document contains a summary list of definitions for distribution to sites working with and working within the Department of Homeland Security’s Explosives Threat Assessment working group. The purpose of this list is to provide a unified framework for discussion between the various collaborating teams.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Ensuring Flexibility and Security in SDN-Based Spacecraft Communication Networks Through Risk Assessment

Software-defined networking (SDN) has enabled elastic networking and resource distribution in cloud computing. The centralization and separation of the Control Plane also offers a high degree of network configurability and management, which can be used to mitigate and manage threats to the network. Space communication networks have historically been restricted and circuit switching in these networks has been a manual process. This study evaluates the potential role of SDN in space communication networks from a networking security standpoint. The evaluation covers the networking security needs of spacecraft missions and their associated assets. The results from the evaluation lead to a risk assessment that identifies vulnerabilities in an SDN-based communications architecture. Security challenges introduced into the network from integrating SDN are also considered. A risk register summarizes the severity of the attack outcomes, as well as occurrence likelihood. The study identifies Denial-of-Service (DoS) attacks as a new threat (presently unmitigated by existing security controls) that would be prevalent in an SDN-based space communication environment. A Mininet-based emulation testbed is built to demonstrate the susceptibility of spacecraft flight software to a flooding DoS attack when on an interconnected SDN-managed network. This type of attack would be highly consequential to mission assets, and therefore SDN-based space communications would need to be resilient to such attacks. Future work will need to be performed to fully characterize DoS attack methods that can apply to the space communication scenario, as well as to devise a comprehensive DoS-resilient solution.

Baker, Dylan Z.↗

Innovation in Radiological Security, Part 2 of 2 – Insights into Developing a Cloud-hosted Security Technology

A Sentry Remote Monitoring System (Sentry-RMS) is a stand-alone security system that provides detection, assessment, and communication of priority alarms as an additional means of thwarting internal and external threats to sites that maintain radiological material. The SEntry-RMS CommUnications and REsponse (Sentry-SECURE) platform is an optional feature of the Sentry-RMS that relays priority alarm information to the identified response stakeholders. Sentry-SECURE is hosted in a cloud environment that abstracts the data owner’s and data consumer’s platforms to allow for greater information sharing. This promotes situational awareness amongst authorized users and enables future innovation among modern response platforms. When securely architecting a cloud solution such as this, the use of design paradigms can be an effective tool to increase the accuracy and reliability of cyber- and information-security-related decisions made throughout the development process. This approach also supports the categorization of design considerations into three levels: industry concepts, project approaches, and data protections for digital processes. Industry concepts consist of the notional underpinnings that guide or motivate a security process, system, or design but often lack any tangible attributes. Project approaches represent decisions made during the design and development process to prioritize a solution, method, or practice above another that may provide a comparable functional output but lacks a desired security benefit. Data protections for digital processes represent the selection, integration, and implementation of specific controls for a given asset. This paper will explore specific examples of how Sentry-SECURE has been designed to account for considerations at each of these three levels, while balancing the operational intent of the platform with the security enhancements necessary to maintain data integrity, availability, and confidentiality.

assessment, RMS, security, physical, cloud, Cyber ↗

Assessment of ROI for Workforce Development Efforts National & Homeland Security

The IDEAL Professional Engagement project at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) aims to enhance the laboratory's workforce diversity and inclusivity efforts, focusing on the U.S. National and Homeland Security mission areas. This project involves researching and evaluating opportunities for INL to engage in various professional events, particularly cyber conferences, to support recruitment and professional development. The project involved several key tasks: compiling comprehensive information on national laboratories and their mission statements, developing a deep understanding of INL’s role and efforts in national and homeland security, and identifying and engaging key stakeholders. Interviews were conducted with a set of targeted questions, and the findings were analyzed to identify common themes, insights, and actionable recommendations. Additionally, relevant upcoming cyber conferences were identified, various sponsorship levels and their associated benefits were evaluated, and the recruitment potential of these conferences was assessed. A detailed cost analysis was performed, including registration fees and travel expenses, and a cost-benefit analysis was conducted to evaluate the financial viability and potential return on investment (ROI) of conference participation and sponsorship. Based on the research and analysis, actionable recommendations for conference participation and sponsorship were formulated, ensuring alignment with INL’s mission and diversity goals. Preliminary results include a comprehensive list of relevant cyber conferences, a detailed cost analysis, and a set of actionable recommendations for future conference participation and sponsorship. The analysis highlights the financial requirements and geographical distribution of these conferences, providing valuable insights for INL's engagement strategies. This project underscores the importance of strategic engagement in professional events to attract and develop a diverse and skilled workforce, ultimately supporting INL’s mission areas in U.S. National and Homeland Security.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Innovation in Radiological Security, Part 1 of 2 – Using a Cloud Solution to Compress the Timely Detection Model

The design and implementation of new security technologies must account for numerous and complex operational challenges. For example, traditionally isolated systems must now survive amid the proliferation of network connectivity and endure the dynamic environments created by organizations tolerating bring-your-own-device policies. When evaluating the cyber, physical, or cyber-physical security of an asset, a common practice in the security industry is to apply the Timely Detection Model (TDM)—a versatile concept that relates the security functions of detection, delay, and response to the progression of an oppositional force’s attack timeline. If implemented correctly, security enhancements can compress the TDM to offer efficiencies to the stakeholders responsible for adjudicating threat scenarios. The efficiencies gained by the response force allow for more effective protection strategies to be realized. One such enhancement, deployed within the radiological security domain—the Sentry-Remote Monitoring System (Sentry-RMS)—is a stand-alone security system that detects, assesses, and communicates priority alarms as a means of thwarting internal and external threats. The SEntry-RMS CommUnications and REsponse (Sentry-SECURE) platform—an optional feature of the Sentry-RMS—is being developed to facilitate more efficient alarm adjudication by site stakeholders and, if necessary, a faster response by law enforcement. This Cloud-hosted platform receives protected information from deployed Sentry-RMS units and relays it to stakeholders that have vested interests in maintaining an elevated level of situational awareness. Operationally, this enables real-time delivery of high-priority alarm and video imagery directly to an identified response stakeholder, such as local law enforcement or site management, via natively developed mobile applications or full platform integration. The Sentry-SECURE platform, as implemented by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Radiological Security, is an example of an innovative security technology that compresses the TDM by (1) enabling a more efficient time to target and (2) better informing a response force’s predetermined tactics, techniques, and procedures. This paper explores the platform’s operational roles, highlights its principal functions, and presents a use case that demonstrates how the platform provides enhanced situational awareness when adjudicating priority alarms.

Sentry-RMS, Timely Detection Model, Sentry-SECURE↗

The research challenges in security and safeguards for nuclear fission batteries

This paper discusses the nuclear security and safeguards research challenges presented by the development and deployment of nuclear fission batteries. These are defined as easily transportable and deployable nuclear systems which are designed to operate either unattended or autonomously. We start by defining the current landscape of domestic and international safeguards and security and discuss how it can be affected by the introduction these new nuclear systems. We then specifically discuss the technology gaps and technologies to be developed to facilitate their practical deployment. We find that, as expected, we can leverage conclusions from existing security and safeguards studies for small modular rectors and develop bespoke target set analyses to inform security postures based on probabilistic risk assessment. We find also that specific fission battery security economic analysis tools are needed and security by design must be applied early. However, the most important finding is that these new systems will require a new comprehensive set of cyber tools covering transportation, installation, operation, maintenance security of the fission battery systems. Altogether, we find that the development of the necessary security and safeguards requirements at the design phase of such a technology will be of great benefit in the smooth deployment of this modern nuclear energy system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Defense Technical Assistance - Infographic 4/24/25

Defense Technical Assistance (TA) Infographic designed to inform potential pilot partnerships with military installation about the TA opportunities available. - Secure and reliable energy is crucial for the operational readiness and resilience of military installations. The Department of Energy’s Grid Deployment Office has funded a new initiative at Idaho National Laboratory to conduct technical, on-site assessments that aim to secure the power infrastructure of military bases reliant on civilian utilities for their operations, both CONUS and OCONUS. Including how the assessments work and INL capabilities, partnership model as well as outcomes.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Systems and Implementation: Integrating Unmanned Aircraft Systems into Physical Protection Systems at Fixed Sites and During Transportation

Physical protection systems, and response forces in particular, are designed to prevent an adversary from successfully completing a malevolent act against a facility or transport operations. Timely detection and assessment of any potential adversary action against a target is an essential element of materials security. The timely detection and assessment must then be followed-up by a capable and timely response that might be enhanced with the additional situational awareness provided by unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). The United States Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration Office of International Nuclear Security has been exploring capabilities provided by UAS to support response force operations within the physical protection system. UAS have the potential to provide response force commanders and operators with situational awareness in assessing adversary locations and actions as well as the locations of responders. UAS may be utilized for area searches ahead of responder pathways to identify potential threats and to provide situational awareness of areas not normally covered by cameras (such as areas outside the fence line outside at fixed facilities). In addition, UAS can provide real-time information to transportation convoy teams that pass through constantly changing public access environments. This paper will provide operational recommendations to be addressed when integrating UAS into existing physical protection systems at fixed sites and during transport. Recommendations will include aspects of the following: needs analysis; tactics and techniques to support detection and assessment as well as response force deployment; remote pilot selection, qualifications, training, and currency; UAS selection criteria; UAS laws and regulations; possible cost sharing with other facility operations; and on-scene emergency management.

Stockwell, Brandon↗

Prioritizing Countries by Concern Regarding Access to Weapons of Mass Destruction Materials

This article presents a global prioritization methodology that evaluates the relative risks of non-state actor acquisition of materials that could be used in chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and high explosive Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) from the country’s relevant infrastructure. Prioritization is based on three domains: 1. Assessing relative scale of materials in each country, 2. The country’s corresponding security posture, and 3. The presence of threat actors. The output is a list of countries prioritized from greatest risk to least. Rather than providing an overall 1 to N ranking, however, the results are placed into tiers based upon their natural groupings within the three domains. The countries in the highest tiers are flagged as potential US national security concern; those scoring in the middle and at the bottom are flagged as posing lower US national security concern. A systematic approach assesses each country by leveraging many disciplines, such as risk and decision analysis, as well as expert judgement. A quantitative value model based on Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) organizes the objectives scoring criteria into a value tree using lessons learned from previous studies, published literature, and expert judgement. The article presents the prioritization categories and corresponding value model scoring criteria to include measurement type, weight, range, and value preference. Country names and data are notional in order to share the details on the underlying methodology and model without identification of actual security risks. A deliberative process addresses factors external to the model and scrutinizes inputs, methodology, model, and results.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗