Results for “risk score” — Page 9

DOE OSTI2021

Developing Technology Performance Level Assessments for Early-Stage Wave Energy Converter Technologies: Preprint

The advantage of using Technology Performance Level (TPL) in conjunction with Technology Readiness Level (TRL) assessments in guiding technology development trajectories to successful outcomes in less time, at less overall cost, and with less encountered risk has been well articulated in the literature. In partnership with industry and international collaborators, a TPL assessment methodology for grid-connected applications has been developed through the application of the systems engineering approach. Metrics under seven different categories have been developed, weighted based on their relative relevance, and combined to yield a composite score. The methodology has been implemented in a spreadsheet tool plus a web application specifically aimed at assessing early stage (TRL 1-3) concepts. The target use cases are (a) technology developers improving their design, to find fatal flaws early, to get feedback on current design, to identify areas of improvement that will yield the highest return on investment, (b) reviewers assessing technologies in competitions or for making funding decisions, (c) investor or project developer doing due diligence, (d) policy makers landscaping the technology domain for formulating R&D strategy. The methodology and the tools are undergoing continuous improvement based on the experience and lessons learnt from applying it to internal and external marine energy technology development projects. The methodology is also being adapted for assessing WECs servicing markets outside the continental grid - broadly categorized as Powering the Blue Economy (PBE) applications. Such applications have vastly different functional requirements entailing a modification of the methodology to account for their higher risk tolerance, reduced price sensitivities, lower power needs, different permitting protocols, etc. This paper presents the latest status of the TPL assessment methodology and tools, describes its adaptation to select PBE markets, and explores its extension to other domains where it could provide a comprehensive and holistic measure of a nascent or disruptive technology's technoeconomic performance potential.

metrics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Developing Technology Performance Level Assessments for Early-Stage Wave Energy Converter Technologies

The advantage of using Technology Performance Level (TPL) in conjunction with Technology Readiness Level (TRL) assessments in guiding technology development trajectories to successful outcomes in less time, at less overall cost, and with less encountered risk has been well articulated in the literature. In partnership with industry and international collaborators, a TPL assessment methodology for grid-connected applications has been developed through the application of the systems engineering approach. Metrics under seven different categories have been developed, weighted based on their relative relevance, and combined to yield a composite score. The methodology has been implemented in a spreadsheet tool plus a web application specifically aimed at assessing early stage (TRL 1-3) concepts. The target use cases are (a) technology developers improving their design, to find fatal flaws early, to get feedback on current design, to identify areas of improvement that will yield the highest return on investment, (b) reviewers assessing technologies in competitions or for making funding decisions, (c) investor or project developer doing due diligence, (d) policy makers landscaping the technology domain for formulating R&D strategy. The methodology and the tools are undergoing continuous improvement based on the experience and lessons learnt from applying it to internal and external marine energy technology development projects. The methodology is also being adapted for assessing WECs servicing markets outside the continental grid - broadly categorized as Powering the Blue Economy (PBE) applications. Such applications have vastly different functional requirements entailing a modification of the methodology to account for their higher risk tolerance, reduced price sensitivities, lower power needs, different permitting protocols, etc. This paper presents the latest status of the TPL assessment methodology and tools, describes its adaptation to select PBE markets, and explores its extension to other domains where it could provide a comprehensive and holistic measure of a nascent or disruptive technology's technoeconomic performance potential.

metrics↗

NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of Multiple Flow Constrained Area Capacity Setting Methods for Collaborative Trajectory Options Program

The purpose of this study was to compare flow constrained area (FCA) capacity setting methods for Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) as they pertain to the Integrated Demand Management (IDM) concept. IDM uses flow balancing to manage air traffic across multiple FCAs with a common downstream constraint, as well as constraints at the respective FCA locations. FCA capacity rates can be set manually, but generating capacities for multiple, interdependent FCAs could potentially over-burden a user. A new enhancement to CTOP called the FCA Balance Algorithm (FBA) was developed at NASA Ames Research Center to improve the process of allocating capacity across multiple flow constrained segments in the airspace. The FBA evaluates the predicted demand and capacity across multiple FCAs and dynamically generates capacity settings for the FCAs that best meet capacity limits for all identified constraints. In a human-in-the-loop simulation study, both manual and automated capacity setting methods were evaluated in terms of their overall feasibility using measures of system performance, human performance, and qualitative feedback. Subject matter experts were asked to use three different methods to allocate capacity to three FCAs, either (1) by manually setting capacity for every 60-minute time window, (2) by manually setting capacity for every 15-minute time window, or (3) by using the FBA capability to automatically generate capacity settings. Results showed no significant differences in terms of overall system performance, indicated by similar ground delay and airport throughput numbers between methods. However, differences in individual strategies afforded by the manual methods allowed some participants to achieve system-wide delay that was much lower than the average. The FBA was the fastest method of capacity setting, and it received the lowest subjective rating scores on physical task load, mental task load, task difficulty and task complexity out of the three methods. Finally, participants explained through qualitative feedback that there were many benefits to using the FBA, such as ease of use, accuracy, and low risk of human input error. Participants did not experience the same limitations with the FBA that they did with the manual methods, such as reduced accuracy in the 60-minute manual condition, or high complexity in the 15-minute/manual condition. These results suggest that the FBA automation enhancement to CTOP maintains system performance while improving human performance. Therefore, the FBA could be introduced as a way to mitigate operator workload while planning a CTOP.

NextGen↗

NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of Multiple Flow Constrained Area Capacity Setting Methods for Collaborative Trajectory Options Program

The purpose of this study was to compare flow constrained area (FCA) capacity setting methods for Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) as they pertain to the Integrated Demand Management (IDM) concept. IDM uses flow balancing to manage air traffic across multiple FCAs with a common downstream constraint, as well as constraints at the respective FCA locations. FCA capacity rates can be set manually, but generating capacities for multiple, interdependent FCAs could potentially over-burden a user. A new enhancement to CTOP called the FCA Balance Algorithm (FBA) was developed at NASA Ames Research Center to improve the process of allocating capacity across multiple flow constrained segments in the airspace. The FBA evaluates the predicted demand and capacity across multiple FCAs and dynamically generates capacity settings for the FCAs that best meet capacity limits for all identified constraints. In a human-in-the-loop simulation study, both manual and automated capacity setting methods were evaluated in terms of their overall feasibility using measures of system performance, human performance, and qualitative feedback. Subject matter experts were asked to use three different methods to allocate capacity to three FCAs, either (1) by manually setting capacity for every 60-minute time window, (2) by manually setting capacity for every 15-minute time window, or (3) by using the FBA capability to automatically generate capacity settings. Results showed no significant differences in terms of overall system performance, indicated by similar ground delay and airport throughput numbers between methods. However, differences in individual strategies afforded by the manual methods allowed some participants to achieve system-wide delay that was much lower than the average. The FBA was the fastest method of capacity setting, and it received the lowest subjective rating scores on physical task load, mental task load, task difficulty and task complexity out of the three methods. Finally, participants explained through qualitative feedback that there were many benefits to using the FBA, such as ease of use, accuracy, and low risk of human input error. Participants did not experience the same limitations with the FBA that they did with the manual methods, such as reduced accuracy in the 60-minute manual condition, or high complexity in the 15-minute/manual condition. These results suggest that the FBA automation enhancement to CTOP maintains system performance while improving human performance. Therefore, the FBA could be introduced as a way to mitigate operator workload while planning a CTOP.

NextGen↗

NASA NTRS1977

Coronary heart disease index based on longitudinal electrocardiography

A coronary heart disease index was developed from longitudinal ECG (LCG) tracings to serve as a cardiac health measure in studies of working and, essentially, asymptomatic populations, such as pilots and executives. For a given subject, the index consisted of a composite score based on the presence of LCG aberrations and weighted values previously assigned to them. The index was validated by correlating it with the known presence or absence of CHD as determined by a complete physical examination, including treadmill, resting ECG, and risk factor information. The validating sample consisted of 111 subjects drawn by a stratified-random procedure from 5000 available case histories. The CHD index was found to be significantly more valid as a sole indicator of CHD than the LCG without the use of the index. The index consistently produced higher validity coefficients in identifying CHD than did treadmill testing, resting ECG, or risk factor analysis.

Townsend, J. C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stable Parallel Training of Wasserstein Conditional Generative Adversarial Neural Networks : *Full/Regular Research Paper submission for the symposium CSCI-ISAI: Artificial Intelligence

We use a stable parallel approach to train Wasserstein Conditional Generative Adversarial Neural Networks (W-CGANs). The parallel training reduces the risk of mode collapse and enhances scalability by using multiple generators that are concurrently trained, each one of them focusing on a single data label. The use of the Wasserstein metric reduces the risk of cycling by stabilizing the training of each generator. We apply the approach on the CIFAR10 and the CIFAR100 datasets, two standard benchmark datasets with images of the same resolution, but different number of classes. Performance is assessed using the inception score, the Fréchet inception distance, and image quality. An improvement in inception score and Fréchet inception distance is shown in comparison to previous results obtained by performing the parallel approach on deep convolutional conditional generative adversarial neural networks (DC-CGANs). Weak scaling is attained on both datasets using up to 100 NVIDIA V100 GPUs on the OLCF supercomputer Summit.

Lupo Pasini, Massimiliano↗

NASA NTRS2005

High Frequency QRS ECG Accurately Detects Cardiomyopathy

High frequency (HF, 150-250 Hz) analysis over the entire QRS interval of the ECG is more sensitive than conventional ECG for detecting myocardial ischemia. However, the accuracy of HF QRS ECG for detecting cardiomyopathy is unknown. We obtained simultaneous resting conventional and HF QRS 12-lead ECGs in 66 patients with cardiomyopathy (EF = 23.2 plus or minus 6.l%, mean plus or minus SD) and in 66 age- and gender-matched healthy controls using PC-based ECG software recently developed at NASA. The single most accurate ECG parameter for detecting cardiomyopathy was an HF QRS morphological score that takes into consideration the total number and severity of reduced amplitude zones (RAZs) present plus the clustering of RAZs together in contiguous leads. This RAZ score had an area under the receiver operator curve (ROC) of 0.91, and was 88% sensitive, 82% specific and 85% accurate for identifying cardiomyopathy at optimum score cut-off of 140 points. Although conventional ECG parameters such as the QRS and QTc intervals were also significantly longer in patients than controls (P less than 0.001, BBBs excluded), these conventional parameters were less accurate (area under the ROC = 0.77 and 0.77, respectively) than HF QRS morphological parameters for identifying underlying cardiomyopathy. The total amplitude of the HF QRS complexes, as measured by summed root mean square voltages (RMSVs), also differed between patients and controls (33.8 plus or minus 11.5 vs. 41.5 plus or minus 13.6 mV, respectively, P less than 0.003), but this parameter was even less accurate in distinguishing the two groups (area under ROC = 0.67) than the HF QRS morphologic and conventional ECG parameters. Diagnostic accuracy was optimal (86%) when the RAZ score from the HF QRS ECG and the QTc interval from the conventional ECG were used simultaneously with cut-offs of greater than or equal to 40 points and greater than or equal to 445 ms, respectively. In conclusion 12-lead HF QRS ECG employing RAZ scoring is a simple, accurate and inexpensive screening technique for cardiomyopathy. Although HF QRS ECG is highly sensitive for cardiomyopathy, its specificity may be compromised in patients with cardiac pathologies other than cardiomyopathy, such as uncomplicated coronary artery disease or multiple coronary disease risk factors. Further studies are required to determine whether HF QRS might be useful for monitoring cardiomyopathy severity or the efficacy of therapy in a longitudinal fashion.

Schlegel, Todd T.↗

DOE OSTI2022

AbBERT: Learning Antibody Humanness via Masked Language Modeling

Understanding the degree of humanness of antibody sequences is critical to the therapeutic antibody development process to reduce the risk of failure modes like immunogenicity or poor manufacturability. We introduce AbBERT, a transformer-based language model trained on up to 20 million unpaired heavy/light chain sequences from the Observed Antibody Space database. We first validate AbBERT using a novel “multi-mask” scoring procedure to demonstrate high accuracy in predicting complementary determining regions—including the challenging hypervariable H3 region. We then demonstrate several uses of AbBERT at various points along the antibody design process. AbBERT enhances in silico antibody optimization via deep reinforcement learning by utilizing its learned embeddings as additional observations during optimization. Within a larger computational antibody design platform, AbBERT has been successfully applied as an additional design objective, where it displays strong correlations with computational tools predicting antibody structural stability. Finally, mutant antibody sequences that have been scored as unfavorable by AbBERT have shown corresponding low yields when expressed in cells. These use cases demonstrate the power of language modeling within computational antibody design.

Bioinformatics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Survival outcomes of patients with head and neck squamous cell cancer with hepatitis B virus infection: An analysis from an endemic tertiary center

Abstract Background Hepatitis B virus (HBV) affects the occurrence and survival outcome of various malignant disorders. The study aimed to evaluate the survival outcome of head and neck squamous cell cancer (HNSCC) patients with or without HBV infection. Methods This study included patients with HNSCC who visited Taichung Veterans General Hospital from 2007 to 2015. HBV infection was defined by hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seropositivity. By propensity score matching, we compared survival outcomes, including progression‐free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), among patients with or without HBV infection. Results The prevalence of HBV infection in our cohort was 12.3%. Among the 1,015 patients included in the matched analysis, a higher risk of baseline liver cirrhosis (11.3% vs. 3.4%, p < 0.001) and initial hepatic dysfunction (10.8% vs. 5.4%, p = 0.005) rates were observed than those without HBV infection at baseline. The 5‐year OS was 43.1% and 53.2% ( p < 0.001) and the 5‐year PFS was 37.4% and 42.3% ( p = 0.007) in patients with and without HBV infection, respectively. The incidence of subsequent hepatic dysfunction showed no difference between patients with and without HBV infection (29.6% vs. 26.8%, p = 0.439). Conclusions Patients with HNSCC and HBV infection were younger and had a higher risk of cirrhosis compared to those without HBV infection. Moreover, HBV infection significantly influenced the OS and PFS outcomes but not subsequent hepatic dysfunction in patients with HNSCC.

Lai, Cheng‐Lun↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mechanically induced thermal runaway severity analysis of Li-ion batteries and continuous energy release monitoring

The large-scale deployment of Li-ion batteries in stationary energy storage and electrical vehicle applications demands a strong focus on safety, particularly on the thermal runaway risk and severity evaluation. A standardized single-side mechanical indentation test protocol was developed to induce an internal short-circuit (ISC) and evaluate cells' thermal runaway severity at different state of charge (SOC). The observed hazard severity (OHS in five categories) and evaluated scores in this work have a comprehensive consideration of each cell's capacity, initial voltage, SOC, temperature and voltage change, allowing a better evaluation of the cells' thermal runaway potential. This method was applied to about 200 Li-ion batteries in order to build an extensive thermal runaway database covering various SOCs, capacities and chemistries. In this study, we monitored the transitions of stored electrochemical energy and applied mechanical energy into both thermal energy and acoustic emissions (AE). The surface temperature and mechanical failures were monitored by infrared imaging and AE to capture critical events within battery cells throughout the mechanical indentation tests. Furthermore, the initial temperature maps can predict two types of follow-up events: thermal runaway or gradual heat release via conduction. Analyzing each cell's severity, AEs, and leveraging the evolving database offer insights into predicting occurrences of thermal runaway. The test method, thermal runaway severity evaluation and prediction, and the corresponding database provide battery designers, manufacturers, and end-users a clear overview of Li-ion batteries' thermal runaway potential under mechanical abuse, advancing the safety design of Li-ion batteries.

Acoustic emission↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

Risk Analysis↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model for Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

Risk Analysis↗

DOE OSTI2023

Male Runners With Lower Energy Availability Have Impaired Skeletal Integrity Compared to Nonathletes

Abstract Context Female athletes, particularly runners, with insufficient caloric intake for their energy expenditure [low energy availability (EA) or relative energy deficiency] are at risk for impaired skeletal integrity. Data are lacking in male runners. Objective To determine whether male runners at risk for energy deficit have impaired bone mineral density (BMD), microarchitecture, and estimated strength. Design Cross-sectional. Setting Clinical research center. Participants 39 men (20 runners, 19 controls), ages 16–30 years. Main Outcome Measures Areal BMD (dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry); tibia and radius volumetric BMD and microarchitecture (high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography); failure load (microfinite element analysis); serum testosterone, estradiol, leptin; energy availability. Results Mean age (24.5 ± 3.8 y), lean mass, testosterone, and estradiol levels were similar; body mass index, percent fat mass, leptin, and lumbar spine BMD Z-score (−1.4 ± 0.8 vs −0.8 ± 0.8) lower (P < .05); and calcium intake and running mileage higher (P ≤ .01) in runners vs controls. Runners with EA <median had lower lumbar spine (−1.5 ± 0.7, P = .028), while runners with EA ≥median had higher hip (0.3 ± 0.7 vs −0.4 ± 0.5, P = .002), BMD Z-scores vs controls. After adjusting for calcium intake and running mileage, runners with EA <median had lower mean tibial total and trabecular volumetric BMD, trabecular bone volume fraction, cortical porosity, and apparent modulus vs controls (P < .05). Appendicular lean mass and serum estradiol (R ≥ 0.45, P ≤ .046), but not testosterone, were positively associated with tibial failure load among runners. Conclusions Despite weight-bearing activity, skeletal integrity is impaired in male runners with lower caloric intake relative to exercise energy expenditure, which may increase bone stress injury risk. Lower estradiol and lean mass are associated with lower tibial strength in runners.

Haines, Melanie S. (ORCID:0000000310024754)↗

DOE OSTI2021

COVID-19 Evidence Accelerator: A parallel analysis to describe the use of Hydroxychloroquine with or without Azithromycin among hospitalized COVID-19 patients

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant global threat. However, despite urgent need, there remains uncertainty surrounding best practices for pharmaceutical interventions to treat COVID-19. In particular, conflicting evidence has emerged surrounding the use of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, alone or in combination, for COVID-19. The COVID-19 Evidence Accelerator convened by the Reagan-Udall Foundation for the FDA, in collaboration with Friends of Cancer Research, assembled experts from the health systems research, regulatory science, data science, and epidemiology to participate in a large parallel analysis of different data sets to further explore the effectiveness of these treatments. Methods: Electronic health record (EHR) and claims data were extracted from seven separate databases. Parallel analyses were undertaken on data extracted from each source. Each analysis examined time to mortality in hospitalized patients treated with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and the two in combination as compared to patients not treated with either drug. Cox proportional hazards models were used, and propensity score methods were undertaken to adjust for confounding. Frequencies of adverse events in each treatment group were also examined. Results: Neither hydroxychloroquine nor azithromycin, alone or in combination, were significantly associated with time to mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. No treatment groups appeared to have an elevated risk of adverse events. Conclusion: Administration of hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and their combination appeared to have no effect on time to mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Continued research is needed to clarify best practices surrounding treatment of COVID-19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Personal Resiliency Index

A plethora of information exists in literature focusing on different aspects of personal resilience. There are a number of questionnaires available to measure resilience in different aspects of an individual’s life, such as mental health. However, there is a lack of comprehensive information on the subject of personal resilience to natural and man-made disasters. A Personal Resiliency Index identifying four key areas of resilience related to natural and man-made disasters will help fill this gap by providing individuals an idea of where the stand comparatively to their peers on this topics. As an increasing amount of man-made disasters, natural disasters and pandemics occur, we realize that preparation is key.?“Crisis can be experienced at individual, group and mass levels and at local, regional, national or supra-national levels.” 1? Dr. Ron Fisher, the principal investigator has over 20 years’ critical infrastructure protection including developing vulnerability assessment methodology, risk and resiliency analyses and infrastructure interdependencies. Dr. Fisher and his team will research and develop a voluntary survey which evaluates the user’s personal resilience level to natural and man-made disasters. The research team is focusing on 4 main categories:? financial resilience, cyber security, physical and mental health, and emergency preparedness.?The web based application will?provide a resilience score for each of the categories and also a comprehensive personal resiliency score based on the voluntary survey. The application will also provide feedback to the user on actions to take to become more resilient to natural and man-made disasters. Through this effort, we will also be able to identify the areas where participants are excelling as well as opportunities for improvement in terms of resilience. This information will provide insight into areas of further investigation and identify potential areas of support needed for the general public to adopt strategies to become more resilient. 1 Lynott, William. “Surviving a Natural (or Man-Made) Disaster: How to Prepare for and Bounce Back? from a Crisis in Your Business | 2018-02-01 | NOLN.” Home Page, NOLN, 1 Feb. 2018, https://www.noln.net/articles/2683-surviving-a-natural-or-man-made-disaster-how-to-prepare-for-and-bounce-back-from-a-crisis-in-your-business.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2011

Ground Vibration Testing Options for Space Launch Vehicles

New NASA launch vehicles will require development of robust systems in a fiscally-constrained environment. NASA, Department of Defense (DoD), and commercial space companies routinely conduct ground vibration tests as an essential part of math model validation and launch vehicle certification. Although ground vibration testing must be a part of the integrated test planning process, more affordable approaches must also be considered. A study evaluated several ground vibration test options for the NASA Constellation Program flight test vehicles, Orion-1 and Orion-2, which concluded that more affordable ground vibration test options are available. The motivation for ground vibration testing is supported by historical examples from NASA and DoD. The approach used in the present study employed surveys of ground vibration test subject-matter experts that provided data to qualitatively rank six test options. Twenty-five experts from NASA, DoD, and industry provided scoring and comments for this study. The current study determined that both element-level modal tests and integrated vehicle modal tests have technical merits. Both have been successful in validating structural dynamic math models of launch vehicles. However, element-level testing has less overall cost and schedule risk as compared to integrated vehicle testing. Future NASA launch vehicle development programs should anticipate that some structural dynamics testing will be necessary. Analysis alone will be inadequate to certify a crew-capable launch vehicle. At a minimum, component and element structural dynamic tests are recommended for new vehicle elements. Three viable structural dynamic test options were identified. Modal testing of the new vehicle elements and an integrated vehicle test on the mobile launcher provided the optimal trade between technical, cost, and schedule.

Patterson, Alan↗

NASA NTRS1998

General Public Space Travel and Tourism: Executive Summary - Volume 1

Travel and tourism is one of the world's largest businesses. Its gross revenues exceed $400 billion per year in the U.S. alone, and it is our second largest employer. U.S. private sector business revenues in the space information area now approximate $10 billion per year, and are increasing rapidly. Not so in the human spaceflight area. After spending $100s of billions (1998 dollars) in public funds thereon, and continuing to spend over $5 billion per year, the government is still the only customer for human spaceflight goods and services. Serious and detailed consideration was first given to the possibility of space being opened up to trips by the general public three decades ago, and some initial attempts to do so were made a dozen years ago. But the difficulties were great and the Challenger disaster put an end to them. In recent years professional space tourism studies have been conducted in the United Kingdom, Germany and, especially, Japan. In the U.S., technological progress has been pronounced; we have had nearly a decade's experience in seeing our astronauts travel to-from low Earth orbit (LEO) safely, and we expect to commence assembly of a LEO space station housing a half-dozen people this year. Too, NASA and our space industry now have new and promising space transportation development programs underway, especially the X-33 and X-34 programs, and some related, further generation, basic technology development programs. And five private companies are also working on the design of new surface - LEO vehicles. The first professional space tourism market studies have been conducted in several countries in the past few years, especially in Japan and here. The U.S. study makes it clear that, conceptually, tens of millions of us would like to take a trip to space if we could do so with reasonable safety, comfort and reliability, and at an acceptable price. Initial businesses will address the desires of those willing to pay a greater price and accept a greater risk. A two-year cooperative Space Act agreement study has been conducted by our National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Space Transportation Association. It was conducted by NASA and STA study leaders drawing upon the competence, experience and hard-nosed imagination of a national Steering Group and scores of attendees at a multi-day Workshop. The study has involved scores of professionals and business people from various areas: astronauts; space booster technology and operations professionals; a hotel architect and a hotel operator; an airline planner; insurance underwriters; space sickness experts; space theme park designers; space and travel and tourism association and business executives; a space-related financier; university tourism and space policy experts; present and former space-responsible government officials; space entrepreneurs; space writers; This study concludes that serious national attention should now be given to activities that would enable the expansion of today's terrestrial space tourism businesses, and the creation of in-space travel and tourism businesses. Indeed, it concludes that, in time, it should become a very important part of our Country's overall commercial and civil space business-program structure.

ONeil, Daniel↗

DOE OSTI2022

Molten Salt vs. Liquid Sodium Receiver Selection Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

An international team led by NREL analyzed the favorability of two alternative liquid receiver designs for a 700+ degrees C receiver under the Gen3 CSP Liquid Pathway project. The competing liquid heat transfer fluids were a ternary chloride salt and liquid-metal sodium. The team applied a facilitated analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to arrive at a recommended alternative and set a path forward for the project. The AHP criteria were formulated, weighted, and scored by the project leadership team and technical advisory committee consisting of energy industry and CSP experts. The six- month process culminated with a two-day workshop where the sodium alternative was deemed to have both a significantly higher benefit (19.3%) and a lower LCOE (11.4%), with only a slightly higher risk (~3%) than the salt alternative. Consequently, a sodium-receiver design was selected for the Liquid Pathway project, where it will be used to charge a two- tank chloride salt thermal energy storage system.

analytic hierarchy process↗