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At least 163 records · Page 9

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NASA NTRS1996

System Synthesis in Preliminary Aircraft Design Using Statistical Methods

This paper documents an approach to conceptual and early preliminary aircraft design in which system synthesis is achieved using statistical methods, specifically Design of Experiments (DOE) and Response Surface Methodology (RSM). These methods are employed in order to more efficiently search the design space for optimum configurations. In particular, a methodology incorporating three uses of these techniques is presented. First, response surface equations are formed which represent aerodynamic analyses, in the form of regression polynomials, which are more sophisticated than generally available in early design stages. Next, a regression equation for an Overall Evaluation Criterion is constructed for the purpose of constrained optimization at the system level. This optimization, though achieved in an innovative way, is still traditional in that it is a point design solution. The methodology put forward here remedies this by introducing uncertainty into the problem, resulting in solutions which are probabilistic in nature. DOE/RSM is used for the third time in this setting. The process is demonstrated through a detailed aero-propulsion optimization of a High Speed Civil Transport. Fundamental goals of the methodology, then, are to introduce higher fidelity disciplinary analyses to the conceptual aircraft synthesis and provide a roadmap for transitioning from point solutions to probabilistic designs (and eventually robust ones).

DeLaurentis, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS2003

Aerodynamic Design Using Neural Networks

The design of aerodynamic components of aircraft, such as wings or engines, involves a process of obtaining the most optimal component shape that can deliver the desired level of component performance, subject to various constraints, e.g., total weight or cost, that the component must satisfy. Aerodynamic design can thus be formulated as an optimization problem that involves the minimization of an objective function subject to constraints. A new aerodynamic design optimization procedure based on neural networks and response surface methodology (RSM) incorporates the advantages of both traditional RSM and neural networks. The procedure uses a strategy, denoted parameter-based partitioning of the design space, to construct a sequence of response surfaces based on both neural networks and polynomial fits to traverse the design space in search of the optimal solution. Some desirable characteristics of the new design optimization procedure include the ability to handle a variety of design objectives, easily impose constraints, and incorporate design guidelines and rules of thumb. It provides an infrastructure for variable fidelity analysis and reduces the cost of computation by using less-expensive, lower fidelity simulations in the early stages of the design evolution. The initial or starting design can be far from optimal. The procedure is easy and economical to use in large-dimensional design space and can be used to perform design tradeoff studies rapidly. Designs involving multiple disciplines can also be optimized. Some practical applications of the design procedure that have demonstrated some of its capabilities include the inverse design of an optimal turbine airfoil starting from a generic shape and the redesign of transonic turbines to improve their unsteady aerodynamic characteristics.

Rai, Man Mohan↗

DOE OSTI2025

gaia: An R package to estimate crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation

gaia is an open-source R package designed to estimate crop yield shocks in response to annual weather variations and CO 2 concentrations at the country scale for 17 major crops. This innovative tool streamlines the workflow from raw climate data processing to projections of annual shocks to crop yields at the country level, using the response surfaces from an empirical econometric model developed and documented in Waldhoff et al. (2020), which leverages historical weather, CO 2 , and crop yield data for robust empirical fitting for 17 crops. gaia uses these response surfaces with monthly temperature and precipitation projections (e.g., from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (O’Neill et al., 2016) climate data bias-adjusted and statistically downscaled by the ISIMIP3BASD approach (Lange, 2019) in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) (Warszawski et al., 2014)) to project yield shocks that can be applied to agricultural productivity changes at the country level for use in multisectoral economic models. The historical and future projections use gridded, country-and-crop specific monthly growing season precipitation and temperature data, aggregated to the national level, and weighted by cropland area derived from the global Monthly Irrigated and Rainfed Crop Areas around the year 2000 (MIRCA2000) dataset (Portmann et al., 2010). These annual, country, and crop-specific yield shocks can be aggregated to different definitions of regions, crop commodities, and time periods, as needed by specific multisectoral economic models. gaia serves as a lightweight, powerful tool that can aid exploration of crop yield responses under a broad range of future climate projections, enhancing human-Earth system analysis capabilities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

Response of Surface Shortwave Cloud Radiative Effect to Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols and Its Impact on Summer Maximum Temperature

Shortwave cloud radiative effects (SWCREs), defined as the difference of the shortwave radiative flux between all-sky and clear-sky conditions at the surface, have been reported to play an important role in influencing the Earth's energy budget and temperature extremes. In this study, we employed a set of global climate models to examine the SWCRE responses to CO2, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and sulfate aerosols in boreal summer over the Northern Hemisphere. We found that CO2 causes positive SWCRE changes over most of the NH, and BC causes similar positive responses over North America, Europe, and eastern China but negative SWCRE over India and tropical Africa. When normalized by effective radiative forcing, the SWCRE from BC is roughly 3–5 times larger than that from CO2. SWCRE change is mainly due to cloud cover changes resulting from changes in relative humidity (RH) and, to a lesser extent, changes in cloud liquid water, circulation, dynamics, and stability. The SWCRE response to sulfate aerosols, however, is negligible compared to that for CO2 and BC because part of the radiation scattered by clouds under all-sky conditions will also be scattered by aerosols under clear-sky conditions. Using a multilinear regression model, it is found that mean daily maximum temperature (Tmax) increases by 0.15 and 0.13 K per watt per square meter (W m−2) increase in local SWCRE under the CO2 and BC experiment, respectively. When domain-averaged, the contribution of SWCRE change to summer mean Tmax changes was 10 %–30 % under CO2 forcing and 30 %–50 % under BC forcing, varying by region, which can have important implications for extreme climatic events and socioeconomic activities.

surface shortwave cloud radiative effect↗

NASA NTRS2011

Comparison of Resource Requirements for a Wind Tunnel Test Designed with Conventional vs. Modern Design of Experiments Methods

The factors that determine data volume requirements in a typical wind tunnel test are identified. It is suggested that productivity in wind tunnel testing can be enhanced by managing the inference error risk associated with evaluating residuals in a response surface modeling experiment. The relationship between minimum data volume requirements and the factors upon which they depend is described and certain simplifications to this relationship are realized when specific model adequacy criteria are adopted. The question of response model residual evaluation is treated and certain practical aspects of response surface modeling are considered, including inference subspace truncation. A wind tunnel test plan developed by using the Modern Design of Experiments illustrates the advantages of an early estimate of data volume requirements. Comparisons are made with a representative One Factor At a Time (OFAT) wind tunnel test matrix developed to evaluate a surface to air missile.

DeLoach, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2014

Physics-based Entry, Descent and Landing Risk Model

A physics-based risk model was developed to assess the risk associated with thermal protection system failures during the entry, descent and landing phase of a manned spacecraft mission. In the model, entry trajectories were computed using a three-degree-of-freedom trajectory tool, the aerothermodynamic heating environment was computed using an engineering-level computational tool and the thermal response of the TPS material was modeled using a one-dimensional thermal response tool. The model was capable of modeling the effect of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impact damage on the TPS thermal response. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the effects of uncertainties in the vehicle state at Entry Interface, aerothermodynamic heating and material properties on the performance of the TPS design. The failure criterion was set as a temperature limit at the bondline between the TPS and the underlying structure. Both direct computation and response surface approaches were used to compute the risk. The model was applied to a generic manned space capsule design. The effect of material property uncertainty and MMOD damage on risk of failure were analyzed. A comparison of the direct computation and response surface approach was undertaken.

descent and landing↗

DOE OSTI2021

Price equation captures the role of drug interactions and collateral effects in the evolution of multidrug resistance

Bacterial adaptation to antibiotic combinations depends on the joint inhibitory effects of the two drugs (drug interaction [DI]) and how resistance to one drug impacts resistance to the other (collateral effects [CE]). Here we model these evolutionary dynamics on two-dimensional phenotype spaces that leverage scaling relations between the drug-response surfaces of drug-sensitive (ancestral) and drug-resistant (mutant) populations. We show that evolved resistance to the component drugs – and in turn, the adaptation of growth rate – is governed by a Price equation whose covariance terms encode geometric features of both the two-drug-response surface (DI) in ancestral cells and the correlations between resistance levels to those drugs (CE). Within this framework, mean evolutionary trajectories reduce to a type of weighted gradient dynamics, with the drug interaction dictating the shape of the underlying landscape and the collateral effects constraining the motion on those landscapes. We also demonstrate how constraints on available mutational pathways can be incorporated into the framework, adding a third key driver of evolution. Our results clarify the complex relationship between drug interactions and collateral effects in multidrug environments and illustrate how specific dosage combinations can shift the weighting of these two effects, leading to different and temporally explicit selective outcomes.

Gjini, Erida↗

NASA NTRS2015

Common Cause Failure Modeling

Common Cause Failures (CCFs) are a known and documented phenomenon that defeats system redundancy. CCFS are a set of dependent type of failures that can be caused by: system environments; manufacturing; transportation; storage; maintenance; and assembly, as examples. Since there are many factors that contribute to CCFs, the effects can be reduced, but they are difficult to eliminate entirely. Furthermore, failure databases sometimes fail to differentiate between independent and CCF (dependent) failure and data is limited, especially for launch vehicles. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of NASA's Safety and Mission Assurance Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MFSC) is using generic data from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's database of common cause failures at nuclear power plants to estimate CCF due to the lack of a more appropriate data source. There remains uncertainty in the actual magnitude of the common cause risk estimates for different systems at this stage of the design. Given the limited data about launch vehicle CCF and that launch vehicles are a highly redundant system by design, it is important to make design decisions to account for a range of values for independent and CCFs. When investigating the design of the one-out-of-two component redundant system for launch vehicles, a response surface was constructed to represent the impact of the independent failure rate versus a common cause beta factor effect on a system's failure probability. This presentation will define a CCF and review estimation calculations. It gives a summary of reduction methodologies and a review of examples of historical CCFs. Finally, it presents the response surface and discusses the results of the different CCFs on the reliability of a one-out-of-two system.

Hark, Frank↗

NASA NTRS2016

Common Cause Failure Modeling

Common Cause Failures (CCFs) are a known and documented phenomenon that defeats system redundancy. CCFS are a set of dependent type of failures that can be caused by: system environments; manufacturing; transportation; storage; maintenance; and assembly, as examples. Since there are many factors that contribute to CCFs, the effects can be reduced, but they are difficult to eliminate entirely. Furthermore, failure databases sometimes fail to differentiate between independent and CCF (dependent) failure and data is limited, especially for launch vehicles. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of NASA's Safety and Mission Assurance Directorate at Marshal Space Flight Center (MFSC) is using generic data from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's database of common cause failures at nuclear power plants to estimate CCF due to the lack of a more appropriate data source. There remains uncertainty in the actual magnitude of the common cause risk estimates for different systems at this stage of the design. Given the limited data about launch vehicle CCF and that launch vehicles are a highly redundant system by design, it is important to make design decisions to account for a range of values for independent and CCFs. When investigating the design of the one-out-of-two component redundant system for launch vehicles, a response surface was constructed to represent the impact of the independent failure rate versus a common cause beta factor effect on a system's failure probability. This presentation will define a CCF and review estimation calculations. It gives a summary of reduction methodologies and a review of examples of historical CCFs. Finally, it presents the response surface and discusses the results of the different CCFs on the reliability of a one-out-of-two system.

Hark, Frank↗

NASA NTRS1990

Scattering of impact wave by a crack in composite plate

The surface responses due to impact load on an infinite uniaxial graphite/epoxy plate with and without delamination cracks are investigated both in time and frequency domain by using a hybrid method combining the finite element discretization of the near-field with boundary integral representation of the field outside a contour enclosing completely the crack. This combined method leads to a set of linear unsymmetric complex matrix equations which are solved to obtain the response in the frequency domain by biconjugate gradient method. The time domain response is then obtained by using an FFT. In order to capture the time-domain characteristics accurately, high order finite elements have been used. Also, both the six node singular elements and eight node transition elements are used around the crack tips to model the crack-tip singularity. It is shown that from the numerical results for surface responses both depth and length of this crack can be identified.

Ju, T. H.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Remote Sensing of Urban Land Cover/Land Use Change, Surface Thermal Responses, and Potential Meteorological and Climate Change Impacts

City growth influences the development of the urban heat island (UHI), but the effect that local meteorology has on the UHI is less well known. This paper presents some preliminary findings from a study that uses multitemporal Landsat TM and ASTER data to evaluate land cover/land use change (LULCC) over the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MFSC) and its Huntsville, AL metropolitan area. Landsat NLCD data for 1992 and 2001 have been used to evaluate LULCC for MSFC and the surrounding urban area. Land surface temperature (LST) and emissivity derived from NLCD data have also been analyzed to assess changes in these parameters in relation to LULCC. Additionally, LULCC, LST, and emissivity have been identified from ASTER data from 2001 and 2011 to provide a comparison with the 2001 NLCD and as a measure of current conditions within the study area. As anticipated, the multi-temporal NLCD and ASTER data show that significant changes have occurred in land covers, LST, and emissivity within and around MSFC. The patterns and arrangement of these changes, however, is significant because the juxtaposition of urban land covers within and outside of MSFC provides insight on what impacts at a local to regional scale, the inter-linkage of these changes potentially have on meteorology. To further analyze these interactions between LULCC, LST, and emissivity with the lower atmosphere, a network of eleven weather stations has been established across the MSFC property. These weather stations provide data at a 10 minute interval, and these data are uplinked for use by MSFC facilities operations and the National Weather Service. The weather data are also integrated within a larger network of meteorological stations across north Alabama. Given that the MSFC weather stations will operate for an extended period of time, they can be used to evaluate how the building of new structures, and changes in roadways, and green spaces as identified in the MSFC master plan for the future, will potentially affect land cover LSTs across the Center. Moreover, the weather stations will also provide baseline data for developing a better understanding of how localized weather factors, such as extreme rainfall and heat events, affect micrometeorology. These data can also be used to model the interrelationships between LSTs and meteorology on a longer term basis to help evaluate how changes in these parameters can be quantified from satellite data collected in the future. In turn, the overall integration of multi-temporal meteorological information with LULCC, and LST data for MSFC proper and the surrounding Huntsville urbanized area can provide a perspective on how urban land surface types affect the meteorology in the boundary layer and ultimately, the UHI. Additionally, data such as this can be used as a foundation for modeling how climate change will potentially impact local and regional meteorology and conversely, how urban LULCC can or will influence changes on climate over the north Alabama area.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Remote Sensing of Urban Land Cover/Land Use Change, Surface Thermal Responses, and Potential Meteorological and Climate Change Impacts

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of Surface Skidding Response of PBX 9501 and PBX 9502

Introduction: Assess the hazards of handling polymer bonder explosives(PBX) for the case of skidding with grit particles in the frictional interface. High explosive (HE) materials tested: PBX 9501 and 9502. High melting point materials at the skidding interface between HE and a substrate is known to increase the probability of ignition by creating hot spots not subject to reduced heating from the melting of HE material. Skidding occurred at peak forces of 6-26 kN normal force, and 0.6-3.4 kN of frictional force. Velocities for skidding range from 5-30 m/s, see figure 7. Sparse amounts of 300 μm silica grit is applied loosely to the HE surface before testing. Previous works have tested ignition by grit. Testing parameters include angle of impact, drop height, grit size, grit density, substrate material. This study focuses on pre ignition conditions and detailed thermal imaging of the frictional interface. Conclusions: Temperature hot spots were observed at high points in HE surface topology. These high points may be created by grit particles. Since these points impact first high frictional work is concentrated and quickly increases temperature. Small amounts of grit do not affect the overall frictional force but do concentrate the frictional work to create hot spots.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2004

Optimal Micro-Jet Flow Control for Compact Air Vehicle Inlets

The purpose of this study on micro-jet secondary flow control is to demonstrate the viability and economy of Response Surface Methodology (RSM) to optimally design micro-jet secondary flow control arrays, and to establish that the aeromechanical effects of engine face distortion can also be included in the design and optimization process. These statistical design concepts were used to investigate the design characteristics of "low mass" micro-jet array designs. The term "low mass" micro-jet may refers to fluidic jets with total (integrated) mass flow ratios between 0.10 and 1.0 percent of the engine face mass flow. Therefore, this report examines optimal micro-jet array designs for compact inlets through a Response Surface Methodology.

Anderson, Bernhard H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A comparison of surrogate constitutive models for viscoplastic creep simulation of HT-9 steel

Mechanistic microstructure-informed constitutive models for the mechanical response of polycrystals are a cornerstone of computational materials science. However, as these models become increasingly more complex – often involving coupled differential equations describing the effect of specific deformation modes – their associated computational costs can become prohibitive, particularly in optimization or uncertainty quantification tasks that require numerous model evaluations. To address this challenge, surrogate constitutive models that balance accuracy and computational efficiency are highly desirable. Data-driven surrogate models, that learn the constitutive relation directly from data, have emerged as a promising solution. In this work, we develop two local surrogate models for the viscoplastic response of a steel: a piecewise response surface method and a mixture of experts model. These surrogates are designed to adapt to complex material behavior, which may vary with material parameters or operating conditions. The surrogate constitutive models are applied to creep simulations of HT-9 steel, an alloy of considerable interest to the nuclear energy sector due to its high tolerance to radiation damage, using training data generated from viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC) simulations. In conclusion, we define a set of test metrics to numerically assess the accuracy of our surrogate models for predicting viscoplastic material behavior, and show that the mixture of experts model outperforms the piecewise response surface method in terms of accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Investigation into the Surface Skidding Response of PBX 9501 and PBX 9502

While polymer-bonded explosives, PBX, have reduced sensitivity to ignition from mechanical shock or heating compared to conventional explosives, the investigation of the mechanical ignition mechanisms for PBX remains vital to assessing the safety during machining and general handling. Under frictional heating, hot spot generation due to high melting point contaminants in the interface is a suspected source for increased probability of detonation. Here, to investigate such frictional heating, samples of PBX 9501 and PBX 9502 were impacted and skidded against a tangentially moving target and thermally imaged. Temporally resolved temperature and forces were simultaneously measured with and without 300 µm silica grit at the frictional interface. A trend of increasing temperature was observed as the speed and tangential force on the sample increased. Grit particles in the frictional interface were found to act as frictional heat concentration spots owing to the grit's protrusion from the surface and lesser susceptibility to melting compared to the PBX. The coefficient of friction between PBX 9501 and the skidding surface was observed to be largely constant for forces and speeds at the lower end of the test range. In contrast, at high tangential speeds, the coefficient was found to be significantly lower.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Statistical Design of Experiments Enables Rapid Exploration of Perfluorobutane Sulfonate Degradation

The phase-out of long-chain PFAS has led to the proliferation of highly recalcitrant short-chain analogs, and mineralization technologies for these short-chain PFAS are needed to mitigate their deleterious effects on environmental and human health. In this study, we utilize a statistical design of experiments, specifically, response surface methodology, to rapidly evaluate the electrochemical degradation of the short-chain PFAS, perfluorobutane sulfonate (PFBS). We evaluate the impacts of the three primary electrochemical parameters (concentration of PFBS, concentration of supporting electrolyte, and applied current) over multiple orders of magnitude on the three primary reaction outcomes of electrochemical PFBS degradation (incomplete PFBS decomposition, complete PFBS mineralization as fluorine, and anodic energy consumption). Our results correspond with literature and clearly identify the well-known tradeoff between energy consumption and complete mineralization. Intriguingly, partial PFBS decomposition and energy consumption demonstrate nonlinear dependencies in the current/supporting electrolyte concentration space and the current/PFBS concentration space, respectively. These findings highlight the utility of the response surface methodology model to efficiently interrogate a large parameter space, identifying both common results and less-obvious interactions between electrochemical parameters and their influences on reaction outcomes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2004

Optimal Micro-Vane Flow Control for Compact Air Vehicle Inlets

The purpose of this study on micro-vane secondary flow control is to demonstrate the viability and economy of Response Surface Methodology (RSM) to optimally design micro-vane secondary flow control arrays, and to establish that the aeromechanical effects of engine face distortion can also be included in the design and optimization process. These statistical design concepts were used to investigate the design characteristics of "low unit strength" micro-effector arrays. "Low unit strength" micro-effectors are micro-vanes set at very low angles-of-incidence with very long chord lengths. They were designed to influence the near wall inlet flow over an extended streamwise distance, and their advantage lies in low total pressure loss and high effectiveness in managing engine face distortion. Therefore, this report examines optimal micro-vane secondary flow control array designs for compact inlets through a Response Surface Methodology.

Anderson, Bernhard H.↗