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At least 163 records · Page 9

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Grid Reliability Analysis with Energy Storage Systems

SAND2025-12025O The Probabilistic Grid Reliability Analysis with Energy Storage Systems (ProGRESS) software tool is an open-source tool for assessing the resource adequacy of the evolving electric power grid integrated with energy storage systems (ESS). This tool uses a simulation engine to create diverse scenarios that test the limits of the modern power grid consisting of a high-volume ESS and variable energy resources (VER). Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Nguyen, Tu↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the reliability of medical resource demand models in the context of COVID-19

Abstract Background Numerous medical resource demand models have been created as tools for governments or hospitals, aiming to predict the need for crucial resources like ventilators, hospital beds, personal protective equipment (PPE), and diagnostic kits during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the reliability of these demand models remains uncertain. Methods Demand models typically consist of two main components: hospital use epidemiological models that predict hospitalizations or daily admissions, and a demand calculator that translates the outputs of the epidemiological model into predictions for resource usage. We conducted separate analyses to evaluate each of these components. In the first analysis, we validated various hospital use epidemiological models using a recent validation framework designed for epidemiological models. This allowed us to quantify the accuracy of the models in predicting critical aspects such as the date and magnitude of local COVID-19 peaks, among other factors. In the second analysis, we evaluated a range of demand calculators for ventilators, medical gowns, and COVID-19 test kits. To achieve this, we decoupled these demand calculators from the underlying epidemiological models and provided ground truth data for their inputs. This approach enabled a direct comparison of the demand calculators, comparing them against each other and actual usage data when available. The code is available athttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13712387. Results Performance varied greatly across the epidemiological models, with greater variability in COVID-19 hospital use predictions than for COVID-19 deaths as analyzed previously. Some models did not have any peaks. Among those that did, the models under-estimated date of peak approximately as often as they over-estimated, but were more likely to under-estimate magnitude of peak, with typical relative errors around 50%. Regarding demand calculator predictions, there was significant variability, including five-fold differences in predictions for gown models. Validation against actual or surrogate usage data illustrated the potential value of demand models while demonstrating their limitations. Conclusions The emerging field of demand modeling holds promise in averting medical resource shortages during future public health emergencies. However, achieving this potential necessitates focused efforts on standardization, transparency, and rigorous model validation before placing reliance on demand models in critical public health decision-making.

Medical Informatics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Insights into Designing an Efficient and Reliable Microwave-Assisted Methane Dehydroaromatization Process: Effect of Microwave Absorber on Catalyst Performance

Microwave-assisted methane dehydroaromatization has the potential to address challenges of traditional dehydroaromatization reactions. However, catalysts for microwave-enhanced reaction systems require effective coupling of fields with the catalyst to produce heat and reach reaction temperatures. Here, this work presents an in-depth understanding of the effect of the addition of silicon carbide as a microwave absorber on catalyst performance among other variables, the viability of the microwave reactor configuration, and insights into designing an effective and reliable microwave-based methane dehydroaromatization process. The effect of other parameters including temperature, weight hourly space velocity, role of microwave absorber, and methane concentration during microwave-assisted methane dehydroaromatization reaction are studied. Mo/ZSM-5 was found to suffer from low permittivity and nonuniform heating under microwave conditions. Mixing silicon carbide powder as a microwave absorber with the catalyst was found to provide more uniform heating. When assessing the catalytic performance of the mixture, it was found that higher methane partial pressures at 2000 cc/g cat .h and a temperature range of 500-600°C produced the highest amount of benzene. The formation of graphitic carbon on the spent catalyst increased with temperature, gas-solid contact period, and methane concentration, which resulted in higher methane conversion and benzene selectivity. The study indicates that under microwave heating the presence of localized carbon enhanced catalyst life by coupling with microwave energy, leading to localized heating, and improving benzene selectivity.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Use of carbon electrodes to reduce mobile ion concentration and improve reliability of metal halide perovskite photovoltaics

Ion migration is one of the prime reasons for the rapid degradation of metal halide perovskite solar cells (PSCs), and we report on a method for quantifying mobile ion concentration (No) using a transient dark current measurement. We perform both ex-situ and in-situ measurements on PSCs and study the evolution of No in films and devices under a range of temperatures. We also study the effect of device architecture, top electrode chemistry, and metal halide perovskite composition and dimensionality on No. Two-dimensional perovskites are shown to reduce the ion concentration along with inert C electrodes that do not react with halides by ~99% while also improving mechanical reliability by ~250%. We believe this work can provide design guidelines for the development of stable PSCs through the lens of minimizing mobile ions and their evolution over time under operational conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimization Model and Algorithm for Capacity Planning and Operation of Reliable and Carbon-neutral Power Systems with High Penetration of Renewable Generation

In this work, we propose a Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) model that optimizes both long-term capacity planning (such as the number and size of dispatchable/renewable generators, batteries, and transmission lines) and hourly operation (such as on/off schedules of dispatchable generators, power output from each generator, and power flow) to maximize power system reliability while minimizing total cost and CO2 emissions.

Cho, Seolhee↗

DOE OSTI2024

First Phase Consensus Roadmap for Development of Condition-Based Cable Reliability Assurance

The objective of this work was to develop a first phase consensus roadmap for condition-based qualification (CBQ) of electrical cables. With CBQ, qualification of Class 1E electrical cables moves from a time-based approach to a condition-based approach, which is anticipated to be safer in terms of reliability and conservatism, and more cost effective in the long run. However, due to barriers, the CBQ approach has not yet been adopted by U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs). Based upon a review of current work evaluating CBQ, the limitation of available condition monitoring technology seems to be the largest barrier. The importance of condition monitoring, or more specifically selecting appropriate condition indicators, during CBQ cannot be understated. However, selecting appropriate condition indicators is challenged by techniques that are destructive and only evaluate cable degradation locally. Further, arguably, no one identified condition indicator fully establishes cable condition. Thus, additional work is necessary to evaluate potential condition indicators towards CBQ. In addition to the requirements of IEC/IEEE Std. 60780-323, ideal condition indicators should include a) both destructive and non-destructive approaches, b) both local and global measurements, c) real-time (i.e., online) monitoring that trends with degradation, d) enable correlation with qualified levels of degradation, and e) be established within a repository of condition indicators with applicable materials and/or components and their acceptance criteria. Additional work is needed in development of technology and methodology prior to adoption of CBQ, especially for extending qualified life of installed components. Education and early experience by the industry and regulators will be required for this change in approach as an alternative to re-analysis. A series of workshops that bring together stakeholders to identify and address gaps will be needed. The longstanding cooperative working group of cable researchers from the U.S. Department of Energy, the Electric Power Research Institute, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission forms a valuable starting point for development of a consensus roadmap to condition-based qualification approach as a viable options for qualification of cable systems in U.S. light water reactors.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Geologic Hydrogen: A New Frontier for Affordable, Reliable Energy Security

Recent successes in the exploration, drilling, and discovery of geologic hydrogen have generated notable excitement. This new energy resource has the potential to make an important contribution to our nation’s energy supply, resiliency, and security. Contemporary studies of geologic hydrogen have a common theme of suggesting places where it might be found or even more specifically, what rocks in what geologic formations may contribute to its formation — either naturally or via artificially induced means. This vital ongoing body of work sets the stage for imagining what may be possible with vast available quantities of naturally occurring hydrogen in the subsurface. While acknowledging current approaches to characterizing geologic hydrogen, this report advances the discussion by suggesting next steps, including the critical science and engineering necessary to make geologic hydrogen an affordable and reliable part of the U.S. energy portfolio.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Experience of developing highly reliable Tuner components (piezo actuators and cold stepper motor actuators) for SRF Linac

The resonance control team at FNAL has led the design of the LCLS-II SRF Linac SRF cavity tuner subsystem. The Linac is expected to operate for over 30 years, and the longevity of the tuner is crucial to the overall reliability of the Linac. When the tuner's design was started, there were no active actuators (stepper and piezo) that could meet the longevity requirements of the Linac. The FNAL resonance control team, in collaboration with industrial partners (Phytron and PI), has developed actuators that have been shown to withstand a cryogenic and insulating vacuum environment for over 100 years in accelerated lifetime tests. Details of actuators design and longevity testing will be presented. Now, practically all (small and large) SRF systems that are under construction around the world are using actuators developed at FNAL. A review of possible actuators improvement will be presented.

Pischalnikov, Yuriy [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Interpreting Forced Oscillation Notifications from ESAMS: General Guidance for Reliability Coordinators

The Eastern Interconnection Situational Awareness Monitoring System (ESAMS) project demonstrated the feasibility of aggregating synchrophasor measurements from across an interconnection, analyzing them, and providing real-time wide-area situational awareness to system operators who may have excellent visibility within their footprint but lack an interconnection-wide view. An application within ESAMS that has garnered industry interest involves detecting forced oscillations visible across multiple areas, identifying the region where the oscillation originated from, quantifying the uncertainty in source localization results, and notifying users in real-time if the detected oscillation amplitudes cross a specified threshold. It is expected that system operators will utilize their internal SCADA/EMS/synchrophasor systems in conjunction with information provided by ESAMS to take effective mitigation actions if forced oscillation notifications are received. This report provides some general guidance on how the ESAMS information can be used for source localization and coordination among multiple reliability coordinators; and also identifies potential enhancements to ESAMS notifications for improved interpretability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Efficient, reliable and cost-effective reversible solid oxide cell technology for hydrogen and electricity production

This report summarizes the work performed by University of California San Diego (UCSD) – OxEon Energy LLC (OxEon) for the U. S. Department of Energy/National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE/NETL) under Cooperative Agreement DE-FE0031940 entitled “Efficient, Reliable and Cost Effective Reversible Solid Oxide Cell Technology for Hydrogen and Electricity Production”. This reversible solid oxide cell (RSOC) technology has two main novel elements: (i) a compact and low-cost stack architecture that consists of multi-cell cell modules in electrical parallel and series connections and (ii) high performance and fuel-flexible reversible cells with electrodes or all components made by sputtering deposition process for efficient operation in both fuel cell (power generation) and electrolysis (hydrogen production) modes.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mississippi's Strategic Resilience: A multi-systems approach to secure, reliable, and adaptable electric grid infrastructure

Mississippi’s electric grid resilience challenges are linked to an intersection of complex socioeconomic, ecological, technological, historical, and political challenges, exacerbated by increasing severe weather like flooding and tornado events. The state’s legacy of underinvestment in critical energy infrastructure, particularly in rural areas and vulnerable floodplains, have stressed an aging grid, creating long-lasting disruptions in electric service during weather-related outages. Effective emergency management and preparedness is further hampered by a lack of coordination across local, county, and regional scales. Using the TASTI-GRID platform and partnership with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Mississippi is developing a comprehensive regional resilience strategy to overcome energy security and reliability challenges, mitigating the impacts of natural hazards, and positioning Mississippi as a resilient and premier destination for residents, businesses, and economic development.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reliable and Efficient Machine Learning (Final Technical Report)

Modern scientific experiments generate massive amounts of data at a pace much faster than humans can manually analyze. While machine learning has revolutionized commercial data analysis (such as recommending movies or recognizing faces), applying these tools to complex scientific discovery is challenging because scientific answers must be precise, interpretable, and adhere to physical laws. The research under this project aims to develop new mathematical tools and computer algorithms specifically designed for scientific applications. Major progress has been made in automatically cleaning and deconstructing messy experimental data, analyzing the visual information of physical phenomena, determining the underlying physical variables, and providing rig orous mathematical analysis of interesting algorithms and concepts widely used in machine learning. This project addressed the critical gap between our ability to generate massive scientific data and our ability to extract interpretable information from it. We established mathematical foundations for Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) aimed at effective data analytics and automated discovery. Our work focused on three core objectives: (1) developing reliable feature extraction methods for dynamic high-dimensional data, (2) establishing mathematical foundations for discovering dynamics via neural networks, and (3) creating rigorous optimization techniques for these models. Key outcomes come from two fronts. On the practical side, they include the development of algorithms that significantly enhance the extraction of signals from field data, as well as the capability to handle situations that exhibit smooth variations or physical stretching due to temperature changes. They also include the creation of an automated framework for discovering fundamental state variables from raw experimental data, demonstrating the ability to identify intrinsic physical dimensions without prior knowledge of the governing laws. On the theoretical front, the research results in theoretical advances in Optimal Transport, a widely used notion in SciML, specifically regarding functions with fixed-size nodal sets, provide sharp bounds relevant to uncertainty quantification. Meanwhile, the outcomes also include the establishment of convergence theories for nonlocal gradient descent methods, enabling robust optimization with noisy data in high-dimensional settings commonly encountered in scientific modeling. The project also helps creating opportunities to train the next generation of researchers, equipping them with the necessary technical skills for today’s workplace and preparing them for future advances.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Detection of Critical Surface Features in PTLs and GDLs for Improved Device Performance and Manufacturing Reliability

High points, or features that protrude above the surface of the material, on porous transport layers (PTLs) and gas diffusion layers (GDLs) can be critical features that may affect the manufacturing process and the performance of the device containing the feature. High points on PTLs and GDLs may stress the membrane of a polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) during lamination and cell operation of a PEM electrolyzer or fuel cell. Additionally, high points on GDLs may impact the reliability of the manufacturing process. Thus, understanding these critical features and developing procedures to detect them are a key part of developing quality control techniques for PTLs and GDLs. This work evaluates the effectiveness of the Keyence VR6200 benchtop-scale structured light optical profilometer for detection of surface protrusions on PTLs and GDLs. Standard testing procedures for detecting and measuring high points were created for use on both material types. These procedures were evaluated using Gage Repeatability and Reproducibility (Gage R&R), where the repeatability, reproducibility, and effectiveness of the system to detect and measure high points were quantified. We have shown with high statistical power that the system is very effective in detection and measurement of high points, with Gage R&R contributions measured to be 2.2% and 3.6% for PTLs and GDLs, respectively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Incorporating Local Extreme Weather Events into Reliability Assessments

Presentation discussing modeling extreme weather effects on the Bulk power system. Using a Production cost model to analyze weather related demand increases, generator outages, transmission outages, and fuel supply constraints. These results can be analyzed to inform on system reliability effects of extreme weather. This presentation was developed for the 2026 NERC Probabilistic Assessment Forum at EPRI in Charlotte NC.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Meeting Global Health Needs via Infectious Disease Forecasting: Development of a Reliable Data-Driven Framework

Infectious diseases (IDs) have a significant detrimental impact on global health. Timely and accurate ID forecasting can result in more informed implementation of control measures and prevention policies. To meet the operational decision-making needs of real-world circumstances, we aimed to build a standardized, reliable, and trustworthy ID forecasting pipeline and visualization dashboard that is generalizable across a wide range of modeling techniques, IDs, and global locations. We forecasted 6 diverse, zoonotic diseases (brucellosis, campylobacteriosis, Middle East respiratory syndrome, Q fever, tick-borne encephalitis, and tularemia) across 4 continents and 8 countries. We included a wide range of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models (n=9) and trained them on a multitude of features (average n=2326) within the One Health landscape, including demography, landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. The pipeline and dashboard were created in consideration of crucial operational metrics—prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, spatiotemporal generalizability, uncertainty quantification, and interpretability—which are essential to strategic data-driven decisions. While no single best model was suitable for all disease, region, and country combinations, our ensemble technique selects the best-performing model for each given scenario to achieve the closest prediction. For new or emerging diseases in a region, the ensemble model can predict how the disease may behave in the new region using a pretrained model from a similar region with a history of that disease. The data visualization dashboard provides a clean interface of important analytical metrics, such as ID temporal patterns, forecasts, prediction uncertainties, and model feature importance across all geographic locations and disease combinations. As the need for real-time, operational ID forecasting capabilities increases, this standardized and automated platform for data collection, analysis, and reporting is a major step forward in enabling evidence-based public health decisions and policies for the prevention and mitigation of future ID outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

India Power Sector Reliability Analysis [Slides]

The objective of the study is to assess pathways for India to achieve its 2070 power sector goals reliably and cost-effectively by considering various supply- and demand-side factors to support planning by national stakeholders including the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development and Reliability of Screen-Printable Fire-Through Cu Paste for Passivated Contact Solar Cells

We present the development of copper (Cu) paste which has been screen printed on Selective Emitter-Passivated Emitter Rear Contact (SE-PERC) solar cells. This paste can also be applied to Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact (TOPCON) solar cells due to its fire-through nature. Champion PERC cells have achieved ....efficiency with ...parameters . Accelerated testing to investigate reliability performance of the SE- PERC mini-modules were carried out in damp heat chamber with 85oC and 85% humidity. The devices were found to be operational even after 1,500 hours. Devices with screen printed Ag contacts on the front side have been studied in parallel to the Cu contacts for comparison.

copper paste↗

DOE OSTI2024

Digital Twinning and Predictive Modeling of Traffic for Safe, Efficient, and Reliable Intersections

Over the last decade, the advances in connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) have far surpassed the technological realm of transportation infrastructure. There is a growing need to have a technologically commensurate transportation infrastructure to enable safe and reliable movement of goods and people. The recent creation of Advanced Research Projects Agency - Infrastructure (ARPA-I) through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act by the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) has further amplified the need to revolutionize the transportation infrastructure system in the US. This need is perhaps felt most at traffic intersections, as more than 50 percent of the combined total of fatal and injury crashes occur at or near intersections. The proposed concept of Infrastructure Perception and Control (IPC) is aimed at bridging this technological gap by building a real-time digital twin of traffic by fusing detections from sensors installed at the intersection. This digital twin can then empower a wide variety of applications such as smart traffic signals or infrastructure-to-everything (I2X) communications. Smart signaling can help avoid crashes through early-prediction, while I2X can augment the CAV sensors under uncertain driving conditions and provide connected vehicles (CVs) with traffic information they can use to optimize their travel.

connected vehicles↗