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At least 163 records · Page 9

Theoretical Understanding of the Linear Relationship between Convective Updrafts and Cloud-Base Height for Shallow Cumulus Clouds. Part II: Continental Conditions

This is the Part II of a two-part study that seeks a theoretical understanding of an empirical relationship for shallow cumulus clouds: subcloud updraft velocity covaries linearly with the cloud-base height. This work focuses on continental cumulus clouds that are more strongly forced by surface fluxes and more deviated from equilibrium than those over oceans (Part I). We use a simple analytical model for shallow cumulus that is well tested against a high-resolution (25 m in the horizontal) large-eddy simulation model. Consistent with a conventional idea, we find that surface Bowen ratio is the key variable that regulates the covariability of both parameters: under the same solar insolation, a drier surface allows for stronger buoyancy flux, triggering stronger convection that deepens the subcloud layer. We find that the slope of the Bowen-ratio-regulated relationship between the two parameters (defined as λ) is dependent on both the local time and the stability of the lower free atmosphere. The value of λ decreases with time exponentially from sunrise to early afternoon and linearly from early afternoon to sunset. The value of λ is larger in a more stable atmosphere. In addition, continental λ in the early afternoon more than doubles the oceanic λ. Validation of the theoretical results against ground observations over the Southern Great Plains shows a reasonable agreement. Physical mechanisms underlying the findings are explained from the perspective of different time scales at which updrafts and cloud-base height respond to a surface flux forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Relationships between Immersion Freezing and Crystal Habit for Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds—A Numerical Study

Abstract The number concentration of ice particles in Arctic mixed-phase clouds is a major controlling factor of cloud lifetime. The relationships between ice nucleation mode and ice crystal habit development are not yet constrained by observations. This study uses a habit-predicting microphysical scheme within a 3D large-eddy simulation model to evaluate the relationship between immersion freezing and ice habit in a simulated Arctic mixed-phase cloud case. Three immersion freezing parameterizations are considered: a volume-dependent freezing scheme (VF), a parameterization limited to activated droplets (C-AC), and a parameterization limited to coarse aerosol particles (C-CM). Both C-AC and C-CM are based on classical nucleation theory. The freezing rate with VF is found to be greater in downdraft regions than in updraft regions due to the downdraft having a higher number concentration of large droplets. The C-AC cases show active freezing of small droplets near cloud top, whereas in the C-CM cases, mainly the 8–32- μ m-sized droplets freeze in updraft regions near the cloud base. Because the initial crystal size is assumed to affect the axis ratio of hexagonal plates, the VF cases produce crystals with larger axis ratios, resulting in smaller mode radii than the C-AC cases. In all cases, irregular polycrystals dominate near cloud top and a band-like structure develops within the cloud, which qualitatively agrees with previous observations. In the VF and C-CM cases, unactivated large droplets arising from coarse-mode aerosol particles contributed significantly to the freezing rate, producing an important influence on crystal habit.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analyzing Relationships between Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Rain Rate over the Ocean Using Numerical Simulations

In this study, the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and rain rate over the ocean is investigated using a full-physics numerical model (WRF) and a physics-based TC rainfall model (TCR). TC intensity is found to be nearly linearly correlated with the average rain rate in the inner core [~0.97 (mm h –1 m –2 )/(m s –1 )], while the correlation is weak at outer radii. This difference is induced because TC intensity is significantly correlated with both the vertical velocity and specific humidity in the inner core but is not significantly correlated with the vertical velocity in the outer radii. Further investigation shows that the intensity–rain-rate relationship at the outer radii is influenced by the TC evolution stage. The rain rate for the outer radii is positively correlated with TC intensity for nondecaying TCs, while this correlation is reduced for decaying TCs due to systematic downdrafts in the outer radii. In the context of climate change, the sensitivity of the TC rain rate to sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be +9% per 1 K increase of SST, roughly the product of the sensitivity of TC intensity to SST (+3%) and the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling (+7%). Coupled with synthetic storms, evolution of the TC rain rate over the twenty-first century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario is projected by the TCR (calibrated with the WRF simulations). The annual increase rates of averaged TC rain rate are 0.17% and 0.20% for the inner core and outer radii, respectively, larger than the annual increase rate of TC intensity (0.046%) but comparable to that of cube of intensity (0.18%).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tropical High Cloud Feedback Relationships to Climate Sensitivity

Clouds constitute a large portion of uncertainty in predictions of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). While low cloud feedbacks have been the focus of intermodel studies due to their high variability among global climate models, tropical high cloud feedbacks also exhibit considerable uncertainty. Here, we apply the cloud radiative kernel technique of Zelinka et al. to 22 models across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles to survey tropical high cloud feedbacks and analyze their relationship to ECS. We find that the net high cloud feedback and its altitude and optical depth feedback components are significantly positively correlated with ECS in the tropical mean. On the other hand, the tropical mean high cloud amount feedback is not correlated with ECS. These relationships are most pronounced outside of areas of strong climatological ascent, suggesting the importance of thin cirrus feedbacks. Finally, we explore connections between high cloud feedbacks, climate sensitivity, and mean state high cloud properties. In general, high ECS models are cloudier in the upper troposphere but have a thinner high cloud population. Furthermore, we find that having more thin cirrus in the mean state relates to more positive high cloud altitude and optical depth feedbacks, and it either amplifies or dampens the high cloud amount feedback depending on the large-scale dynamical regime (amplifying in descent and dampening in ascent). In summary, our analysis highlights the importance of tropical high cloud feedbacks for driving intermodel spread in ECS and suggests that mean state high cloud characteristics might provide a unique opportunity for observationally constraining high cloud feedbacks.

atmosphere↗

Establishing model credibility for process-microstructure-property relationships in additive manufacturing using exascale computing

Additive Manufacturing (AM) of alloys holds significant promise as a disruptive technology in various industries, yet its adoption is often hindered by challenges in achieving consistent part quality. These issues are primarily due to the complex process-microstructure-property (PSP) relationships inherent to AM. Computational models can greatly aid in understanding these relationships, but their widespread impact and adoption has been limited by a lack of validated, open-source, and computationally efficient PSP modeling frameworks and hardware limitations. Here, this study leverages the ExaAM software suite and data from the AMBench-2018 series of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) benchmark experiments to perform a comprehensive model assessment, including verification, validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification. The RADICAL-EnTK workflow manager was used to perform an ensemble of heat transport, solidification, and mechanical response simulations on the exascale computer Frontier, considering uncertainties in critical model inputs such as laser spot size and nucleation parameters, and consisting of 125 explicit grain structure simulations and 7875 crystal plasticity simulations. For a selected location within the Inconel 625 AMBench-2018 test artifact, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification were performed using the predicted distributions of grain structure and mechanical properties. Qualitative agreement was found between the predicted grain size and texture and the observed AMBench-2018 microstructure, the mean predicted yield stress was within 5% of the experimental measurement mean, and the mean predicted engineering stress at 5% strain was within 10% of the experimental measurement mean. The insights gained from development and validation of the ExaAM PSP modeling framework will help guide future directions for enhancing the credibility and reliability of PSP models in AM, thereby accelerating the adoption of AM technologies in various industries.

Additive manufacturing↗

Hyporheic hydraulic geometry: Conceptualizing relationships among hyporheic exchange, storage, and water age

Hyporheic exchange is now widely acknowledged as a key driver of ecosystem processes in many streams. Yet stream ecologists have been slow to adopt nuanced hydrologic frameworks developed and applied by engineers and hydrologists to describe the relationship between water storage, water age, and water balance in finite hydrosystems such as hyporheic zones. Here, in the context of hyporheic hydrology, we summarize a well-established mathematical framework useful for describing hyporheic hydrology, while also applying the framework heuristically to visualize the relationships between water age, rates of hyporheic exchange, and water volume within hyporheic zones. Building on this heuristic application, we discuss how improved accuracy in the conceptualization of hyporheic exchange can yield a deeper understanding of the role of the hyporheic zone in stream ecosystems. Although the equations presented here have been well-described for decades, our aim is to make the mathematical basis as accessible as possible and to encourage broader understanding among aquatic ecologists of the implications of tailed age distributions commonly observed in water discharged from and stored within hyporheic zones. Our quantitative description of “hyporheic hydraulic geometry,” associated visualizations, and discussion offer a nuanced and realistic understanding of hyporheic hydrology to aid in considering hyporheic exchange in the context of river and stream ecosystem science and management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Utah FORGE 5-2419: Seismicity-Permeability Relationships Probed via Nonlinear Acoustic Imaging - Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Seismicity-Permeability Relationships Probed via Nonlinear Acoustic Imaging project by Pennsylvania State University, presented by Derek Elsworth. The project's objectives were to explore controls and acoustic signatures of aseismic through seismic evolution of friction-stability-permeability relationships on fractures in shear-reactivation, link this reactivation to key features of the pre-existing stress state, and upscale these indexes to reservoir scale to drive successful reservoir stimulation. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on September 8, 2023. The workshop provided a valuable opportunity to explore the progress made in each of the 17 Research and Development projects funded under Solicitation 2020-1 which aim to enhance our understanding of the crucial factors influencing the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) reservoirs and resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

FTICR-MS Data from Multi-continent River Water and Sediment and from Coastal River Fresh and Saline Sediment Associated with: “Dissolved Organic Matter Functional Trait Relationships are Conserved Across Rivers”

This data package is associated with the publication “Dissolved Organic Matter Functional Trait Relationships are Conserved Across Rivers” submitted to PNAS (Stegen et al., 2023). The study aims to understand large-scale spatial structure of the dissolved organic matter (DOM) thermodynamic traits and inter-trait relationships by investigating (1) river water and sediments collected along 97 rivers spanning 3 continents and (2) coastal sediment collected from fresh and saline locations in Pacific and Gulf/Atlantic rivers. Sediment extracts and water samples were analyzed using ultrahigh resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS). This dataset is comprised of three folders (1) Coastal, (2) WHONDR_S19S, and (3) Data_Dictionaries. Coastal contains (1) a subfolder with processed FTICR-MS data as csv files and sample collection metadata, (2) a subfolder with R scripts used to process the data and create associated figures, (3) a subfolder with the raw, unprocessed FTICR-MS data as .xml files, and (4) a readme file with more information about the dataset and instructions for using Formularity (https://omics.pnl.gov/software/formularity). WHONDRS_S19S contains (1) a csv file with processed FTICR data, (2) a csv with sample collection metadata, (3) a csv with sample geospatial data, (4) a csv with simulated lambda model outputs, (5) a subfolder with R scripts used to process the data and create associated figures, and (6) a readme file with more information regarding WHONDRS raw FTICR data and processing scripts. Data_Dictionaries contains data dictionaries for each csv file in the data package. The 97 global river corridors were part of a WHONDRS (https://whondrs.pnnl.gov) study. The raw, unprocessed FTICR-MS data with additional data can be found at doi:10.15485/1729719 for sediments and doi:10.15485/1603775 for water. This data package contains the processed data used in the associated manuscript. The coastal data has not been previously published, and this data package contains both the raw and processed data. Version 3 of this data package published February 2023 includes updates to the title of the manuscript, additional data and data dictionary and updated scripts linked to new analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of physically transparent, predictive structure-performance relationships for rational design of multi-component catalytic materials. Final Report

Solid surfaces act as catalysts for many important chemical processes, including commodity chemicals production, energy conversion and pollution mitigation. The outcome of catalytic processes is mainly governed by interactions of adsorbates with active sites on the catalyst surface. These interactions can be dramatically affected by the changes in the local characteristics of the active site, which can be accomplished by an introduction of various promoters and poisons, or by alloying with other metal atoms. In fact, many commercial heterogeneous catalysts contain metal nanoparticles promoted by various additives. Our goal is to develop fundamental understanding about the impact of perturbations in the local geometry of a catalytic site on the local surface reactivity. These insights are crucial for a more systematic and rational catalyst design. The project aims to advance the field of catalysis by formulating reliable structure/performance relationships and utilizing these relationships to identify novel catalytic materials. Benefits for DOE and our society are in the development of fundamental theories that guide the process of discovery of energy-efficient and environmentally friendly heterogeneous catalysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Structure-Property Relationships of Hydrogel-Salt Composites for Extreme Sorption Performance

Hydrogel-salt composites have emerged as a promising low-cost material for a wide range of sorption applications including thermal energy storage, atmospheric water harvesting, and dehumidification. Despite significant efforts devoted to the synthesis of novel hydrogels and their implementation in sorption devices, very little is known about the fundamental connection between the hydrogel structure and composition with their material-level properties. This knowledge, however, is critical to enable the rational design of high-performance hydrogels targeted at the various applications. In this work, we elucidate via experiments and modeling the link between the hydrogel structure, including its salt content and polymer nanostructure, and its sorption properties. Using lithium chloride-embedded polyacrylamide hydrogels as model systems, we demonstrate that the hydrogel uptake and its kinetics are dominated by the content and properties of the salt. In fact, the polymer nanostructure has no a minor effect in its sorption performance. Based on our experimental insights, we develop a model for the simultaneous diffusion of water and salts in hydrogels, which helps to explain the observed relationship between hydrogel structure and its sorption properties. Furthermore, we leverage these insights to synthesize hydrogels with record-high water vapor uptakes of 1.79 g/g, 2.58 g/g, 3.86 g/g, and 8.51 g/g at 30%, 50%, 70%, and 90% relative humidity, respectively, owing to the use of large amounts of highly hygroscopic salts. By demonstrating the structure-property relationships, this work enables the rational design of salt-embedded hydrogels for low-cost and high-performance thermal energy storage, atmospheric freshwater production, and space conditioning.

Díaz-Marín, Carlos D↗

Exploring the process-structure-property relationship of Aerosol Deposition to phosphor coatings for non-contact thermometry

Full-field, multi-measurand diagnostics provide rich validation data necessary to improve the product life cycle time of nuclear safety components. Thermophosphor digital image correlation (TP+DIC) is a method of simultaneously measuring strain and temperature fields using patterned phosphor coatings deposited with aerosol deposition (AD). While TP+DIC produces a functional diagnostic, the coating’s reproducibility and the effect of the patterned features on the inferred temperature remains uncharacterized. This NSR&D project provided the opportunity to study two areas: 1) the tunability and repeatability of aerosol deposition and 2) the robustness of aerosol deposition phosphor on deforming substrates. The first area explores the process-property relationship of parameters elucidating the significance of each on the coating. The second area explores the relationship between the features’ characteristics (namely thickness) and the phosphor emission and inferred temperature. Together, the results will lead to the improved accuracy and functionality of TP+DIC for qualification testing of nuclear safety components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Process-microstructure relationship of laser processed thermoelectric material Bi2Te3

Additive manufacturing allows fabrication of custom-shaped thermoelectric materials while minimizing waste, reducing processing steps, and maximizing integration compared to conventional methods. Establishing the process-structure-property relationship of laser additive manufactured thermoelectric materials facilitates enhanced process control and thermoelectric performance. This research focuses on laser processing of bismuth telluride (Bi 2 Te 3 ), a well-established thermoelectric material for low temperature applications. Single melt tracks under various parameters (laser power, scan speed and number of scans) were processed on Bi 2 Te 3 powder compacts. A detailed analysis of the transition in the melting mode, grain growth, balling formation, and elemental composition is provided. Rapid melting and solidification of Bi 2 Te 3 resulted in fine-grained microstructure with preferential grain growth along the direction of the temperature gradient. Experimental results were corroborated with simulations for melt pool dimensions as well as grain morphology transitions resulting from the relationship between temperature gradient and solidification rate. Samples processed at 25 W, 350 mm/s with 5 scans resulted in minimized balling and porosity, along with columnar grains having a high density of dislocations.

Oztan, Cagri↗

Relationship Between Nematicity, Antiferromagnetic Fluctuations, and Superconductivity in FeSe 1-x S x Revealed by NMR

The S-substituted FeSe, FeSe 1-x S x , under pressure (p), provides a versatile platform for studying the relationship among nematicity, antiferromagnetism, and superconductivity. Here we present a short review of the recent experimental evidence showing that nematicity has a remarkable impact on the relationship between antiferromagnetic fluctuations and superconductivity. This has been revealed by several 77 Se nuclear magnetic resonance studies that have tracked the variability of antiferromagnetic fluctuations and superconducting transition temperature (T c ) as a function of x and p. T c is roughly proportional to antiferromagnetic fluctuations in the presence or absence of nematic order suggesting the importance of antiferromagnetic fluctuations in the Cooper pairing mechanism in FeSe 1-x S x . However, the antiferromagnetic fluctuations are more effective in enhancing superconductivity in the absence of nematicity as compared to when it is present. These experimental observations give renewed insights into the interrelationships between nematicity, magnetism, and superconductivity in Fe-based superconductors.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

The relationship between stress, anxiety and eating behavior among Chinese students: a cross-sectional study

Background The expansion of higher education and the growing number of college students have led to increased awareness of mental health issues such as stress, anxiety, and eating disorders. In China, the educational system and cultural expectations contribute to the stress experienced by college students. This study aims to clarify the role of anxiety as a mediator in the relationship between stress and eating behaviors among Chinese college students. Methods This study utilized data from the 2021 Psychology and Behavior Investigation of Chinese Residents, which included 1,672 college students under the age of 25. The analysis methods comprised descriptive statistics, t -tests, Pearson correlation analyses, and mediation effect analysis. Results The findings indicate that Chinese college students experience high levels of stress, with long-term stress slightly exceeding short-term stress. Both types of stress were positively correlated with increased anxiety and the adoption of unhealthy eating behaviors. Anxiety was identified as a significant mediator, accounting for 28.3% of the relationship between long-term stress and eating behavior (95% CI = 0.058–0.183). The mediation effect of short-term stress on eating behavior through anxiety was also significant, explaining 61.4% of the total effect (95% CI = 0.185–0.327). Conclusion The study underscores the importance of stress management and mental health services for college students. It recommends a comprehensive approach to reducing external pressures, managing anxiety, and promoting healthy eating behaviors among college students. Suggestions include expanding employment opportunities, providing career guidance, enhancing campus and societal support for holistic development, strengthening mental health services, leveraging artificial intelligence technologies, educating on healthy lifestyles, and implementing targeted health promotion programs.

Chai, Yulin↗

An Analysis of the Spatial Variations in the Relationship Between Built Environment and Severe Crashes

Traffic crashes significantly contribute to global fatalities, particularly in urban areas, highlighting the need to evaluate the relationship between urban environments and traffic safety. This study extends former spatial modeling frameworks by drawing paths between global models, including spatial lag (SLM), and spatial error (SEM), and local models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR), multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), and multi-scale geographically weighted regression with spatially lagged dependent variable (MGWRL). Utilizing the proposed framework, this study analyzes severe traffic crashes in relation to urban built environments using various spatial regression models within Leon County, Florida. According to the results, SLM outperforms OLS, SEM, and GWR models. Local models with lagged dependent variables outperform both the global and generic versions of the local models in all performance measures, whereas MGWR and MGWRL outperform GWR and GWRL. Local models performed better than global models, showing spatial non-stationarity; so, the relationship between the dependent and independent variables varies over space. The better performance of models with lagged dependent variables signifies that the spatial distribution of severe crashes is correlated. Finally, the better performance of multi-scale local models than classical local models indicates varying influences of independent variables with different bandwidths. According to the MGWRL model, census block groups close to the urban area with higher population, higher education level, and lower car ownership rates have lower crash rates. On the contrary, motor vehicle percentage for commuting is found to have a negative association with severe crash rate, which suggests the locality of the mentioned associations.

Alisan, Onur (ORCID:0000000193113984)↗

Concentration-Discharge Relationships in the Six Largest Arctic Rivers, 2003-2019

This dataset provides the results of the analysis of the relationship of dissolved analyte concentrations and river discharges in the six largest Arctic rivers across the global panarctic region (see Figure 1 in documentation file *.pdf). Long-term measurements of dissolved analyte concentrations and river discharge have been collected for each of the Kolyma, Lena, Mackenzie, Ob, Yenisey, and Yukon rivers by the Arctic Great Rivers Observatory (ArcticGRO) project from ~2003-present (Shiklomanov, 2021). The relationship of dissolved analyte concentrations and discharges in each river was characterized by statistical analysis of the slope of the log(concentration) vs log(discharge) (b), the coefficient of variation ratio (CVc/CVq), the 2.5% and 97.5% confidence intervals of b, and assigning a chemostatic, flushing, diluting, or non-systematic behavior category according to Koger (2018). The summary of these analyses for all six rivers is provided in one .csv file. The concentrations of 20 dissolved analytes and discharge measurement data for the individual Kolyma, Lena, Mackenzie, Ob, Yenisey, and Yukon rivers are also provided with this dataset. There are seven *.csv files; one for each river plus the statistical summary. These public ArcticGRO data at "https://www.arcticgreatrivers.org" (Shiklomanov, 2021) were downloaded on Feb 13, 2020, but each river has different measurement dates over the sampling and analysis period. The ArcticGRO metadata document (*.pdf) downloaded on Feb 13, 2020 is also included in this dataset. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The relationship between gene traits and transcription in soil microbial communities varies by environmental stimulus

Codon and nucleotide frequencies are known to relate to the rate of gene transcription, yet how these traits shape transcriptional profiles of soil microbial communities remains unclear. Here we test the prediction that functional genes with high codon optimization and energetically lower cost nucleotides (i.e., nucleotides requiring less adenosine triphosphate (ATP) for synthesis) have higher transcriptional expression in a soil microbial community. In laboratory incubations, we subjected an agricultural soil to two separate short-term environmental changes: labile carbon (glucose) addition or a sudden 30-min increase in temperature from 20 °C to 60 °C. Using the total genomic codon frequencies to predict preferred codon usage for each taxon, we then estimated codon optimization for each transcript. On the community level, we found a higher average level of codon optimization after the addition of glucose. Synonymous nucleotide composition in the transcript pool also shifted towards energetically cheaper nucleotides, favoring uracil (U) over adenine (A) and cytosine (C) over guanine (G). Similarly, we found that encoded amino acid usage shifted towards energetically cheaper amino acids in response to labile carbon. In contrast, in communities responding to heat shock, there were no significant differences in the averaged gene traits of expressed transcripts. We used metagenome-assembled-genomes to further examine the ability of gene traits to predict transcriptional responses within and between taxa. We found that traits of individual genes could not reliably predict the level of transcription of a gene within or between taxa—highlighting the limits of this approach. However, we did find that when traits were averaged across several related genes, codon optimization was able to predict levels of transcription in metabolic pathways associated with growth and nutrient uptake in response to glucose. Similar relationships were not observed in response to heat, or for functions associated with stress—such as genes associated with sporulation or heat shock. These results demonstrate that gene traits, such as codon usage, nucleotide selection, and amino acid selection, relate to the transcriptional expression of genes in soil microbial communities and suggests that these relationships may be dependent on both gene function and the specific type of environmental stimuli.

Biological and medical sciences↗

ClimGen: Learning the Forcing-Response Relationship in Climate System

Solar Radiation Management (SRM) is emerging as a potential geoengineering strategy to address the anthropogenic impact on climate, but its effective implementation requires an iterative and large ensemble of highly accurate and efficient climate projections. Traditional climate projections rely on executing computationally demanding and time-consuming numerical climate models. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) aim to enhance these approaches by emulating traditional methods. In this work, we propose a novel framework for directly learning the relationship between solar radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere and the corresponding surface temperature response. To evaluate the feasibility of this direct ML-based projection, we developed a dataset using an intermediate complexity model, incorporating a comprehensive suite of different forcing patterns and evaluation metrics to rigorously assess the ML model’s performance. We introduce a Conditional Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (cDDPM) for this task, which demonstrates encouraging skill in representing climate statistics under previously unseen forcing patterns. This approach provides a promising pathway for direct climate projections by accurately learning the forcing-response relationship, with a wide range of applications in impact mitigation, emissions policy design, and SRM strategies.

Chen, Tse-Chun [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)] (ORCID:↗