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DOE OSTI2022

NRAP-Open-IAM: Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model

NRAP Open IAM is the latest evolution in a series of quantitative models developed under the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) to address risk assessment, risk management and containment assurance questions of geological carbon storage (GCS). NRAP Open IAM allows a user to define a site specific GCS scenario, characterize important site features, events, and processes (considering uncertainty), couple together reduced order models of various system components to rapidly forecast response to CO 2 injection, and perform stochastic analysis to quantify containment effectiveness, leakage risk, and impact to receptors of concern.

Vasylkivska, Veronika S.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Risk to civilization: A planetary science perspective

One of the most profound changes in our perspective of the solar system resulting from the first quarter century of planetary exploration by spacecraft is the recognition that planets, including Earth, were bombarded by cosmic projectiles for 4.5 aeons and continue to be bombarded today. Although the planetary cratering rate is much lower now than it was during the first 0.5 aeons, sizeable Earth-approaching asteroids and comets continue to hit the Earth at a rate that poses a finite risk to civilization. The evolution of this planetary perspective on impact cratering is gradual over the last two decades. It took explorations of Mars and Mercury by early Mariner spacecraft and of the outer solar system by the Voyagers to reveal the significance of asteroidal and cometary impacts in shaping the morphologies and even chemical compositions of the planets. An unsettling implication of the new perspective is addressed: the risk to human civilization. Serious scientific attention was given to this issue in July 1981 at a NASA-sponsored Spacewatch Workshop in Snowmass, Colorado. The basic conclusion of the 1981 NASA sponsored workshop still stands: the risk that civilization might be destroyed by impact with an as-yet-undiscovered asteroid or comet exceeds risk levels that are sometimes deemed unacceptable by modern societies in other contexts. Yet these impact risks have gone almost undiscussed and undebated. The tentative quantitative assessment by some members of the 1981 workshop was that each year, civilization is threatened with destruction with a probability of about 1 in 100,000. The enormous spread in risk levels deemed by the public to be at the threshold of acceptability derives from a host of psychological factors that were widely discussed in the risk assessment literature. Slovic shows that public fears of hazards are greatest for hazards that are uncontrollable, involuntary, fatal, dreadful, globally catastrophic, and which have consequences that seem inequitable, especially if they affect future generations.

Chapman, Clark R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Macromolecular Expression and Function: A New Paradigm for NASA Risk Assessment

Predicting risks in humans of either acute effects such as bone loss or muscle wasting, or late effects such as cancer, is challenging. To an approximation, this is because uncertainties of exposure to stress factors or toxic agents and the uniformity of processing subsequent damage at the cellular level within a complex set of biological variables degrade the confidence of predicting pathologic outcome. A cellular biodosimeter that simultaneously reports 1) the type of damage due to that exposure, 2) the quantity of damage incurred by that exposure, and 3) the dataset used to assess risk of developing pathologic outcome caused by that exposure would therefore be useful for predicting ultimate risks faced by an individual, such as an astronaut. It is suggested that such a biodosimeter can be based upon analyses of gene-expression and protein expression whereby large datasets of cellular response to damage are obtained and analyzed for expression-profiles correlated with established end points and molecular markers predictive for risks being assessed. The usefulness of multiparametric cellular biodosimeters could be realized by quantitatively profiling these datasets using techniques of bioinformatics. Such an approach contributes to the foundation of molecular epidemiology as a new scientific discipline, and represents a new paradigm of risk assessment.

Richmond, Robert↗

NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic failure assessment with application to solid rocket motors

A quantitative methodology is being developed for assessment of risk of failure of solid rocket motors. This probabilistic methodology employs best available engineering models and available information in a stochastic framework. The framework accounts for incomplete knowledge of governing parameters, intrinsic variability, and failure model specification error. Earlier case studies have been conducted on several failure modes of the Space Shuttle Main Engine. Work in progress on application of this probabilistic approach to large solid rocket boosters such as the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor for the Space Shuttle is described. Failure due to debonding has been selected as the first case study for large solid rocket motors (SRMs) since it accounts for a significant number of historical SRM failures. Impact of incomplete knowledge of governing parameters and failure model specification errors is expected to be important.

Jan, Darrell L.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Introducing new technologies into Space Station subsystems

A new systems engineering technology has been developed and applied to Shuttle processing. The new engineering approach emphasizes the identification, quantitative assessment, and management of system performance and risk related to the dynamic nature of requirements, technology, and operational concepts. The Space Shuttle Tile Automation System is described as an example of the first application of the new engineering technology. Lessons learned from the Shuttle processing experience are examined, and concepts are presented which are applicable to the design and development of the Space Station Freedom.

Wiskerchen, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 1: Methodology and applications

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for designs failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflights systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for design, failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Advanced risk assessment of the effects of graphite fibers on electronic and electric equipment, phase 1

A model was developed to generate quantitative estimates of the risk associated with the release of graphite fibers during fires involving commercial aircraft constructed with graphite fiber composite materials. The model was used to estimate the risk associated with accidents at several U.S. airports. These results were then combined to provide an estimate of the total risk to the nation.

Pocinki, L. S.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Remote Imaging of Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1) Entry Heating Risk Reduction

A Measure of Performance (MOP) identified with an Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1) Multi- Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program Flight Test Objective (FTO) (OFT1.091) specified an observation during reentry though external ground-based or airborne assets with thermal detection capabilities. The objective of this FTO was to be met with onboard Developmental Flight Instrumentation (DFI), but the MOP for external observation was intended to provide complementary quantitative data and serve as a risk reduction in the event of anomalous DFI behavior (or failure). Mr. Gavin Mendeck, the Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) Phase Engineer for the MPCV Program (Vehicle Integration Office/Systems & Mission Integration) requested a risk-reduction assessment from the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) to determine whether quantitative imagery could be obtained from remote aerial assets to support the external observation MOP. If so, then a viable path forward was to be determined, risks identified, and an observation pursued. If not, then the MOP for external observation was to be eliminated.

Schuster, David M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Application of Risk Informed Decision Making to Highly Reliable Three Dimensionally Woven Thermal Protection System for Mars Sample Return

The NASA Risk Informed Decision Making process is used to assess a trade space of three dimensionally woven thermal protection systems for application to the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle. Candidate architectures are assessed based on mission assurance, technical development, cost, and schedule risk. Assessment methodology differed between the architectures, utilizing a four-point quantitative scale for mission assurance and technical development and highly tailored PERT techniques for cost and schedule. Risk results are presented, in addition to a review of RIDM effectiveness for this application.

Needels, J.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Application of Risk Informed Decision Making to a Highly Reliable Three-Dimensionally Woven Thermal Protection System for Mars Sample Return

Needels, J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Tuned Single Parameter for Representing Conjunction Risk

Satellite conjunction assessment risk analysis is a subjective enterprise that can benefit from quantitative aids and, to this end, NASA/GSFC has developed a fuzzy logic construct - called the F-value - to attempt to provide a statement of conjunction risk that amalgamates multiple indices and yields a more stable intra-event assessment. This construct has now sustained an extended tuning procedure against heuristic analyst assessment of event risk. The tuning effort has resulted in modifications to the calculation procedure and the adjustment of tuning coefficients, producing a construct with both more predictive force and a better statement of its error.

Plakaloic, D.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Earth reencounter probabilities for aborted space disposal of hazardous nuclear waste

A quantitative assessment is made of the long-term risk of earth reencounter and reentry associated with aborted disposal of hazardous material in the space environment. Numerical results are presented for 10 candidate disposal options covering a broad spectrum of disposal destinations and deployment propulsion systems. Based on representative models of system failure, the probability that a single payload will return and collide with earth within a period of 250,000 years is found to lie in the range .0002-.006. Proportionately smaller risk attaches to shorter time intervals. Risk-critical factors related to trajectory geometry and system reliability are identified as possible mechanisms of hazard reduction.

Friedlander, A. L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Quest for an OCO (Orbiting Carbon Observatory) Re-Flight

The objective of the OCO (Orbiting Carbon Observatory) mission was to make the first space-based measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide with the accuracy needed to quantify sources and sinks of this important greenhouse gas. Unfortunately, the observatory was lost as a result of a launch vehicle failure on 24 February 2009. The JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) was directed to assess the options for the re-flight of the OCO instrument and recovery of the carbon-related measurement, and to understand and quantitatively assess the cost, schedule, and technical and programmatic risks of the identified options. The two most likely solutions were (1) a shared platform with the TIRS (Thermal Infrared Sensor) instrument and (2) a dedicated OSC (Orbital Sciences Corporation) LEOStar-2 spacecraft bus similar to that utilized for the original OCO mission. A joint OCO-TIRS mission study was commissioned and two specific options were examined. However, each presented technical challenges that would drive cost. It was determined that the best option was to rebuild the OCO observatory to the extent possible including another LEOStar-2 spacecraft bus. This lowest risk approach leverages the original OCO design and provides the shortest path to launch, which is targeted for no later than the February 2013 timeframe.

carbon↗

NASA NTRS2006

The NASA Space Radiation Research Program

We present a comprehensive overview of the NASA Space Radiation Research Program. This program combines basic research on the mechanisms of radiobiological action relevant for improving knowledge of the risks of cancer, central nervous system and other possible degenerative tissue effects, and acute radiation syndromes from space radiation. The keystones of the NASA Program are five NASA Specialized Center's of Research (NSCOR) investigating space radiation risks. Other research is carried out through peer-reviewed individual investigations and in collaboration with the US Department of Energies Low-Dose Research Program. The Space Radiation Research Program has established the Risk Assessment Project to integrate data from the NSCOR s and other peer-reviewed research into quantitative projection models with the goals of steering research into data and scientific breakthroughs that will reduce the uncertainties in current risk projections and developing the scientific knowledge needed for future individual risk assessment approaches and biological countermeasure assessments or design. The NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) at Brookhaven National Laboratory was created by the Program to simulate space radiation on the ground in support of the above research programs. New results from NSRL will be described.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation. Volume 5: Auxiliary shuttle risk analyses

Volume 5 is Appendix C, Auxiliary Shuttle Risk Analyses, and contains the following reports: Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Space Shuttle Phase 1 - Space Shuttle Catastrophic Failure Frequency Final Report; Risk Analysis Applied to the Space Shuttle Main Engine - Demonstration Project for the Main Combustion Chamber Risk Assessment; An Investigation of the Risk Implications of Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster Chamber Pressure Excursions; Safety of the Thermal Protection System of the Space Shuttle Orbiter - Quantitative Analysis and Organizational Factors; Space Shuttle Main Propulsion Pressurization System Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Final Report; and Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Proof-of-Concept Study - Auxiliary Power Unit and Hydraulic Power Unit Analysis Report.

Fragola, Joseph R.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Uncertainty Estimation Cheat Sheet for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

"Uncertainty analysis itself is uncertain, therefore, you cannot evaluate it exactly," Source Uncertain Quantitative results for aerospace engineering problems are influenced by many sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis aims to make a technical contribution to decision-making through the quantification of uncertainties in the relevant variables as well as through the propagation of these uncertainties up to the result. Uncertainty can be thought of as a measure of the 'goodness' of a result and is typically represented as statistical dispersion. This paper will explain common measures of centrality and dispersion; and-with examples-will provide guidelines for how they may be estimated to ensure effective technical contributions to decision-making.

Britton, Paul T.↗