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At least 163 records · Page 9

Air temperature and precipitation constraining the modelled wetland methane emissions in a boreal region in northern Europe

Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation are studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem process models. Six ecosystem models (JSBACH-HIMMELI, LPX-Bern, LPJ-GUESS, JULES, CLM4.5, and CLM5) are compared to multi-model means of ecosystem models and atmospheric inversions from the Global Carbon Project and upscaled eddy covariance flux results for their temperature and precipitation responses and seasonal cycles of the regional fluxes. Two models with contrasting response patterns, LPX-Bern and JSBACH-HIMMELI, are used as priors in atmospheric inversions with Carbon Tracker Europe–CH4 (CTE-CH4) in order to find out how the assimilation of atmospheric concentration data changes the flux estimates and how this alters the interpretation of the flux responses to temperature and precipitation. Inversion moves wetland emissions of both models towards co-limitation by temperature and precipitation. Between 2000 and 2018, periods of high temperature and/or high precipitation often resulted in increased emissions. However, the dry summer of 2018 did not result in increased emissions despite the high temperatures. The process models show strong temperature and strong precipitation responses for the region (51 %–91 % of the variance explained by both). The month with the highest emissions varies from May to September among the models. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled eddy covariance flux observations agree on the month of maximum emissions and are co-limited by temperature and precipitation. The setup of different emission components (peatland emissions, mineral land fluxes) has an important role in building up the response patterns. Considering the significant differences among the models, it is essential to pay more attention to the regional representation of wet and dry mineral soils and periodic flooding which contribute to the seasonality and magnitude of methane fluxes. The realistic representation of temperature dependence of the peat soil fluxes is also important. Furthermore, it is important to use process-based descriptions for both mineral and peat soil fluxes to simulate the flux responses to climate drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating Net Primary Productivity Using Satellite and Ancillary Data

The net primary productivity (C) or annual rate of carbon accumulation per unit ground area by terrestrial plant communities is the difference of the rate of gross photosynthesis (A(sub g)) and autotrophic respiration (R) per unit ground area. Although available observations show that R is a large and variable fraction of A(sub g), viz., 0.3 to 0.7, it is generally recognized that much uncertainties exist in this fraction due to difficulties associated with the needed measurements. Additional uncertainties arise when these measurements are extrapolated to regional or global land surface using empirical equations, for example, using regression equations relating C to mean annual precipitation and air temperature. Here, a process-based approach has been taken to calculate A(sub g) and R using satellite and ancillary data. A(sub g) has been expressed as a product of radiation use efficiency, magnitude of intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and normalized by stresses due to soil water shortage and air temperature away from the optimum range. A biophysical model has been used to determine the radiation use efficiency from the maximum rate of carbon assimilation by a leaf, foliage temperature, and the fraction of diffuse PAR incident on a canopy. All meteorological data (PAR, air temperature, precipitation, etc.) needed for the calculation are derived from satellite observations, while a land use, land cover data (based on satellite and ground measurements) have been used to assess the maximum rate of carbon assimilation by a leaf of varied cover type based on field measurements. R has been calculated as the sum of maintenance and growth components. The maintenance respiration of foliage and live fine roots at a standard temperature of different land cover has been determined from their nitrogen content using field and satellite measurements, while that of living fraction of woody stem (viz., sapwood) from the seasonal maximum leaf area index as determined from satellite observations. These maintenance respiration values were then adjusted to that corresponding to air temperature according to a prescribed non-linear variation of respiration with temperature. The growth respiration has been calculated from the difference of Ag and maintenance respiration, according to the two-compartment model. The results of calculations will be reported for 36 consecutive months (1987-1989) over large contiguous areas (ca. 10(exp 5) sq km) Of agricultural land and tropical humid evergreen forests, and compared with available field data.

Choudhury, B. J.↗

Deep Roots Supply Reactivity and Enhance Silicate Weathering in the Bedrock Vadose Zone

In upland environments, roots commonly extend deep below soil into partially saturated bedrock. This Bedrock Vadose Zone (BVZ) has been shown to store and circulate water, host organic carbon respiration and serve as a critical source of rock-derived nutrients. However, the extent to which deep roots influence chemical weathering rates remains poorly understood. Here, we report 4 years of depth-resolved major ion chemistry over a 16-m thick BVZ hosting a deep rhizosphere in a catchment subject to a Mediterranean climate. These data allow development and validation of a reactive transport model (RTM), revealing that the timescales of water storage and drainage in the BVZ are sufficient to facilitate substantial chemical weathering of the shale bedrock. However, observed solute concentrations are only reproduced by the RTM when we explicitly include measured rates of CO 2(g) production meters below soil driven by the deeply rooted forest. By combining direct observations and a process-based RTM we conclude that the carbon respiration promoted by deep roots significantly enhances chemical weathering rates in the BVZ, constituting 43% ± 3% of total solute flux from the base of the BVZ to the water table.

Osorio‐Leon, Ivan D. [University of Illinois Urban↗

A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events

Reviewing recent literature, we report that changes in extreme heat event characteristics such as magnitude, frequency, and duration are highly sensitive to changes in mean global-scale warming. Numerous studies have detected significant changes in the observed occurrence of extreme heat events, irrespective of how such events are defined. Further, a number of these studies have attributed present-day changes in the risk of individual heat events and the documented global-scale increase in such events to anthropogenic-driven warming. Advances in process-based studies of heat events have focused on the proximate land-atmosphere interactions through soil moisture anomalies, and changes in occurrence of the underlying atmospheric circulation associated with heat events in the mid-latitudes. While evidence for a number of hypotheses remains limited, climate change nevertheless points to tail risks of possible changes in heat extremes that could exceed estimates generated from model outputs of mean temperature. We also explore risks associated with compound extreme events and nonlinear impacts associated with extreme heat.

Heat events↗

Implications for Climate Sensitivity from the Response to Individual Forcings

Climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 is a widely-used metric of the large-scale response to external forcing. Climate models predict a wide range for two commonly used definitions: the transient climate response (TCR: the warming after 70 years of CO2 concentrations that riseat 1 per year), and the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS: the equilibrium temperature change following a doubling of CO2 concentrations). Many observational datasets have been used to constrain these values, including temperature trends over the recent past 16, inferences from paleo-climate and process-based constraints from the modern satellite eras. However, as the IPCC recently reported different classes of observational constraints produce somewhat incongruent ranges. Here we show that climate sensitivity estimates derived from recent observations must account for the efficacy of each forcing active during the historical period. When we use single forcing experiments to estimate these efficacies and calculate climate sensitivity from the observed twentieth-century warming, our estimates of both TCR and ECS are revised upward compared to previous studies, improving the consistency with independent constraints.

Sensitivity↗

Remote Sensing of Evaporation

Evaporation of water from the Earth's surface into the atmosphere is central to the terrestrial energy, water and carbon cycle. Remote sensing approaches to measure evaporation (ET) combine observable inputs to the energy and water balance within statistical or process-based methodologies. These ET products draw on satellite observations from across the electro-magnetic spectrum. The ET retrievals are grouped in two main categories. One category includes approaches that combine meteorological descriptions of potential evaporation with a range of strategies to estimate evaporative stress. A second category includes surface energy balance approaches that retrieve latent heat from the thermal signatures. For each category a practical implementation example is described, including an outlook on progress towards multi-model assessment of global evaporation.

Transpiration↗

Geologic hydrogen: From natural occurrences to anthropogenic generation – A review of fundamentals, potential, challenges and prospects

Growing demand for hydrogen is exposing the environmental and economic limits of reforming-based and carbon-managed supply chains, while the scale-up of electrolytic capacity remains capital-constrained. Geologic hydrogen, defined as molecular H₂ generated and stored within the Earth's crust offers a complementary, potentially lower-cost resource, yet exploration is still ad hoc. This review (1) revisits a global inventory of confirmed hydrogen seeps and subsurface occurrences; (2) analyzes the controlling reactions, migration pathways, and trapping conditions governing these occurrences; (3) proposes a process-based geologic hydrogen system concept analogous to, yet distinct from, the petroleum system; and (4) evaluates potential geologic hydrogen systems within the United States as a representative case study. Here, we contrast natural systems powered by serpentinization, mantle degassing or radiolysis with anthropogenic systems that stimulate the same reactions or convert in-situ hydrocarbons. Stable hydrogen accumulations require generation rates that outpace combined physical, chemical and microbial losses; the Bourakébougou field (Mali) exemplifies a self-recharging, free-gas reservoir sustained by meteoric-water serpentinization beneath an efficient caprock. Prospective geologic hydrogen resources are likely to occur in regions where iron-rich lithologies, deep-seated faults, and low-permeability sealing formations coexist. Applying this principle, we highlight three promising hydrogen play types in U.S. geological terrains: ophiolite belts (Appalachian and Californian regions), the Midcontinent Rift and the Lake Superior banded‑iron formations. Multiphysics numerical models and positive-unlabeled machine-learning workflows help to accelerate play screening and de-risk future production; yet, reaction kinetics, stimulation strategies, and full techno-economic and life-cycle assessments remain pivotal knowledge gaps.

Anthropogenic hydrogen generation↗

Hierarchical Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization for materials discovery in high entropy alloy spaces

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful and data-efficient method for iterative materials discovery and design, particularly valuable when prior knowledge is limited, underlying functional relationships are complex or unknown, and the cost of querying the materials space is significant. Traditional BO methodologies typically utilize conventional Gaussian Processes (cGPs) to model the relationships between material inputs and properties, as well as correlations within the input space. However, cGP-BO approaches often fall short in multi-objective optimization scenarios, where they are unable to fully exploit correlations between distinct material properties. Leveraging these correlations can significantly enhance the discovery process, as information about one property can inform and improve predictions about others. Here, this study addresses this limitation by employing advanced kernel structures to capture and model multi-dimensional property correlations through multi-task (MTGPs) or deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs), thus accelerating the discovery process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of MTGP-BO and DGP-BO in rapidly and robustly solving complex materials design challenges that occur within the context of complex multi-objective optimization over FCC FeCrNiCoCu high entropy alloy (HEA) spaces, where traditional cGP-BO approaches fail. Furthermore, we highlight how the differential costs associated with querying various material properties can be strategically leveraged to make the materials discovery process more cost-efficient.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Mapping Philadelphia's Floodscape: A 35‐Year Analysis of Coastal Urban Flood Hazards and Drivers

Low-lying coastal urban cities face significant flooding risks from river flooding (fluvial), storm surges and high tides (coastal), and intense local rainfall (pluvial). Accurately assessing these hazards requires modeling frameworks capable of capturing both the individual and combined effects of multiple flood drivers, as well as the diversity of flood scenarios that can arise from their interactions. In this study, we implemented a physics-based, high-resolution modeling approach to assess flood hazards in Philadelphia, PA, a coastal city exemplifying multi-driver flood risks over multiple decades (1985–2019), by simulating a wide range of flood events at a 10-m resolution. By integrating watershed, coastal, and urban flood models, we explicitly resolved the interaction between fluvial, pluvial, and coastal processes across the city. From these simulations, we identified flood hazard hotspots and systematically attributed the primary drivers of flooding for each event. The results suggested that 44% of Philadelphia's flood events were compound floods, primarily driven by fluvial-surge and fluvial-pluvial combinations. Notably, 77% of these events involved fluvial flooding, either as a single flood driver or in combination with other drivers, underscoring the dominant role of riverine processes in the city's flood hazard. Overall, this study demonstrates the value of a comprehensive, process-based approach for urban flood hazard assessment and highlights the importance of considering the full spectrum of flood scenarios to inform targeted and adaptive flood management strategies in coastal cities.

Compound flooding↗

Deep Gaussian process-based cost-aware batch Bayesian optimization for complex materials design campaigns

The accelerating pace and expanding scope of materials discovery demand optimization frameworks that efficiently navigate vast design spaces with complex response surfaces while judiciously allocating limited evaluation resources. We present a cost-aware, batch Bayesian optimization scheme powered by deep Gaussian process (DGP) surrogates and a heterotopic querying strategy. Our DGP surrogate, formed by stacking GP layers, models complex hierarchical relationships among high-dimensional compositional features and captures correlations across multiple target properties, propagating uncertainty through successive layers. We integrate evaluation cost into an upper-confidence-bound acquisition extension, which, together with heterotopic querying, proposes small batches of candidates in parallel, balancing exploration of under-characterized regions with exploitation of high-mean, low-variance predictions across correlated properties. Applied to refractory high-entropy alloys for high-temperature applications, our framework converges to optimal formulations in fewer iterations with cost-aware queries than conventional GP-based BO, highlighting the value of deep, uncertainty-aware, cost-sensitive strategies in materials campaigns.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Life Cycle Assessment and Cost Analysis of a Process-Based Sorbent-Based Direct Air Capture with Temperature-Vacuum Swing Adsorption Model

This presentation discusses different aspects of LCA and TEA of sorbent-based case study updates and methodologies utilized for carbon dioxide removal technologies. The combined TEA and LCA approach adopted herein provides insight into trade-offs between environmental performance and cost efficiency under various energy supply scenarios.

carbon dioxide removal↗

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗

Life Cycle Inventories and Data Gap Analysis for Rare Earth Elements: Neodymium and Dysprosium from Mining to Magnets

The United States demand for Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) magnets, produced from rare earth elements (REEs) such as (Nd) and Dysprosium (Dy), far exceeds its nascent domestic production capacity, rendering it reliant on vulnerable global supply chains dominated by China. To guide research and development investments in securing U.S. REE supply, defensible benchmark metrics across environmental, economic, and social dimensions are needed. In this study, we built globally-representative, process-based cradle-to-cradle life cycle inventories for Nd and Dy in NdFeB magnets lifecycles, encompassing primary material acquisition, beneficiation, smelting and refining, metal processing, specialty alloy and chemical transformation, subcomponent manufacturing, consumer application (use phase) and end-of-life management. We carried out detailed literature review, and applied process engineering principles to build industry-representative upscaled life cycle inventories for both metals. We used these models to conduct bottom-up literature review and gap analysis on existing literature, compilation of data sources for each life cycle stage (and transformations where necessary), and a preliminary technoeconomic analysis (TEA)/life cycle costing analysis (LCCA). Findings from this work emphasize the need for metal specific, representative REE LCIs to establish robust benchmarks for advancing sustainable REE technologies and guiding R&D in REE supply chains.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessing the climate impact of an improved volcanic sulfate aerosol representation in E3SM

Accurately simulating historical surface temperature variations is essential for evaluating climate models, yet many struggle to reproduce the mid-20th-century temperature trends associated with significant volcanic eruptions. This study examines the impact of volcanic sulfate aerosol representation on these biases using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The standard CMIP6 protocol prescribes volcanic forcing through radiative perturbations, omitting volcanic aerosol–cloud interactions (VACIs). Here, we implement an emission-based approach with an updated volcanic eruption inventory that directly incorporates volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions, enabling a more process-based representation of volcanic forcing. This approach leads to improved surface temperature variability and a modest reduction in cold biases between 1940 and 1980 compared to the CMIP6 setup. Additionally, we assess cloud property responses to a more realistic volcanic sulfate aerosol representation, which weakens cloud-induced cooling during periods of lower volcanic activity. However, despite these refinements, a significant temperature cold bias remains, indicating that further improvements in atmospheric chemistry, aerosol microphysics, cloud processes, and model parameterizations are needed to fully resolve this issue in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the use of stochastic process-based methods for the analysis of hyperspectral data

Further development in remote sensing technology requires refinement of information system design aspects, i.e., the ability to specify precisely the data to collect and the means to extract increasing amounts of information from the increasingly rich and complex data stream created. One of the principal directions of advance is that data from much larger numbers of spectral bands can be collected, but with significantly increased signal-to-noise ratio. The theory of stochastic or random processes may be applied to the modeling of second-order variations. A multispectral data set with a large number of spectral bands is analyzed using standard pattern recognition techniques. The data were classified using first a single spectral feature, then two, and continuing on with greater and greater numbers of features. Three different classification schemes are used: a standard maximum likelihood Gaussian scheme; the same approach with the mean values of all classes adjusted to be the same; and the use of a minimum distance to means scheme such that mean differences are used.

Landgrebe, David A.↗

The Geostationary Fourier Transform Spectrometer

The Geostationary Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GeoFTS) is an imaging spectrometer designed for an earth science mission to measure key atmospheric trace gases and process tracers related to climate change and human activity. The GeoFTS instrument is a half meter cube size instrument designed to operate in geostationary orbit as a secondary "hosted" payload on a commercial geostationary satellite mission. The advantage of GEO is the ability to continuously stare at a region of the earth, enabling frequent sampling to capture the diurnal variability of biogenic fluxes and anthropogenic emissions from city to continental scales. The science goal is to obtain a process-based understanding of the carbon cycle from simultaneous high spatial resolution measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), and chlorophyll fluorescence (CF) many times per day in the near infrared spectral region to capture their spatial and temporal variations on diurnal, synoptic, seasonal and interannual time scales. The GeoFTS instrument is based on a Michelson interferometer design with a number of advanced features incorporated. Two of the most important advanced features are the focal plane arrays and the optical path difference mechanism. A breadboard GeoFTS instrument has demonstrated functionality for simultaneous measurements in the visible and IR in the laboratory and subsequently in the field at the California Laboratory for Atmospheric Remote Sensing (CLARS) observatory on Mt. Wilson overlooking the Los Angeles basin. A GeoFTS engineering model instrument is being developed which will make simultaneous visible and IR measurements under space flight like environmental conditions (thermal-vacuum at 180 K). This will demonstrate critical instrument capabilities such as optical alignment stability, interferometer modulation efficiency, and high throughput FPA signal processing. This will reduce flight instrument development risk and show that the GeoFTS design is mature and flight ready.

Carbon exchanges↗

Compensatory Water Effects Link Yearly Global Land CO2 Sink Changes to Temperature

Large interannual variations in the measured growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) originate primarily from fluctuations in carbon uptake by land ecosystems13. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent temperature and water availability control the carbon balance of land ecosystems across spatial and temporal scales314. Here we use empirical models based on eddy covariance data15 and process-based models16,17 to investigate the effect of changes in temperature and water availability on gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at local and global scales. We find that water availability is the dominant driver of the local interannual variability in GPP and TER. To a lesser extent this is true also for NEE at the local scale, but when integrated globally, temporal NEE variability is mostly driven by temperature fluctuations. We suggest that this apparent paradox can be explained by two compensatory water effects. Temporal water-driven GPP and TER variations compensate locally, dampening water-driven NEE variability. Spatial water availability anomalies also compensate, leaving a dominant temperature signal in the year-to-year fluctuations of the land carbon sink. These findings help to reconcile seemingly contradictory reports regarding the importance of temperature and water in controlling the interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon balance36,9,11,12,14. Our study indicates that spatial climate covariation drives the global carbon cycle response.

Jung, Martin↗