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Results for “probability generating function”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

LN2 spray droplet size measurement via ensemble diffraction technique

The size of subcooled liquified nitrogen droplets are measured with a 5 mW He-Ne laser as a function of pressure difference (delta P) across flat spray and full cone pressure atomizing nozzles. For delta P's of 3 to 30 psid, the spray sauter mean diameter (SMD) ranged between 250 to 50 microns. The pressure range tested is representative of those expected during cryogenic fluid transfer operations in space. The droplet sizes from the flat spray nozzles were greater than those from the full cone nozzle. A power function of the form, SMD varies as delta P(exp a), describes the spray SMD as a function of the delta P very well. The values of a were -0.36 for the flat spray and -0.87 for the full cone. The reduced dependence of the flat spray SMD on the delta P was probably because of: (1) the absence of a swirler that generates a turbulence within the nozzle to enhance atomization, and (2) a possible increase in shearing stress resulting from the delayed atomization due to the absence of turbulence. The nitrogen quality, up to 1.5 percent is based on isenthalpic expansion, did not have a distinct and measurable effect on the spray SMD. Both bimodal and monomodal droplet size population distributions were measured. In the bimodal distribution, the frequency of the first mode was much greater than the frequency of the second mode. Also, the frequency of the second mode was low enough such that a monomodal approximation probably would give reasonable results.

Saiyed, N. H.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generative deep-learning reveals collective variables of Fermionic systems

Complex processes of fermionic systems ranging from protein folding to nuclear fission often follow a low-dimensional reaction path parametrized in terms of a few collective variables. In nuclear theory, variables related to the shape of the nuclear density in a mean-field picture are key to describing the large amplitude collective motion of the neutrons and protons. Exploring the adiabatic energy landscape spanned by these degrees of freedom reveals the possible reaction channels while simulating the dynamics in this reduced space yields their respective probabilities. Unfortunately, this theoretical framework breaks down whenever the systems encounters a quantum phase transition with respect to the collective variables. Here, in this study, we introduce a novel generative deep-learning algorithm designed to build reaction paths that ensure that the many-fermion wave function stays differentiable with respect to the collective variables. This approach is applicable to any fermionic system described by a coherent state. We use the case of potential energy curves in the 16 O nucleus within the Hartree-Fock theory to illustrate its main features.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Large eddy simulations and direct numerical simulations of high speed turbulent reacting flows

The basic objective of this research is to extend the capabilities of Large Eddy Simulations (LES) and Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS) for the computational analyses of high speed reacting flows. In the efforts related to LES, we were primarily involved with assessing the performance of the various modern methods based on the Probability Density Function (PDF) methods for providing closures for treating the subgrid fluctuation correlations of scalar quantities in reacting turbulent flows. In the work on DNS, we concentrated on understanding some of the relevant physics of compressible reacting flows by means of statistical analysis of the data generated by DNS of such flows. In the research conducted in the second year of this program, our efforts focused on the modeling of homogeneous compressible turbulent flows by PDF methods, and on DNS of non-equilibrium reacting high speed mixing layers. Some preliminary work is also in progress on PDF modeling of shear flows, and also on LES of such flows.

Givi, P.↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Monte Carlo Approach to Modeling the Breakup of the Space Launch System EM-1 Core Stage with an Integrated Blast and Fragment Catalogue

The Liquid Propellant Fragment Overpressure Acceleration Model (L-FOAM) is a tool developed by Bangham Engineering Incorporated (BEi) that produces a representative debris cloud from an exploding liquid-propellant launch vehicle. Here it is applied to the Core Stage (CS) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS launch vehicle). A combination of Probability Density Functions (PDF) based on empirical data from rocket accidents and applicable tests, as well as SLS specific geometry are combined in a MATLAB script to create unique fragment catalogues each time L-FOAM is run-tailored for a Monte Carlo approach for risk analysis. By accelerating the debris catalogue with the BEi blast model for liquid hydrogen / liquid oxygen explosions, the result is a fully integrated code that models the destruction of the CS at a given point in its trajectory and generates hundreds of individual fragment catalogues with initial imparted velocities. The BEi blast model provides the blast size (radius) and strength (overpressure) as probabilities based on empirical data and anchored with analytical work. The coupling of the L-FOAM catalogue with the BEi blast model is validated with a simulation of the Project PYRO S-IV destruct test. When running a Monte Carlo simulation, L-FOAM can accelerate all catalogues with the same blast (mean blast, 2 σ blast, etc.), or vary the blast size and strength based on their respective probabilities. L-FOAM then propagates these fragments until impact with the earth. Results from L-FOAM include a description of each fragment (dimensions, weight, ballistic coefficient, type and initial location on the rocket), imparted velocity from the blast, and impact data depending on user desired application. LFOAM application is for both near-field (fragment impact to escaping crew capsule) and far-field (fragment ground impact footprint) safety considerations. The user is thus able to use statistics from a Monte Carlo set of L-FOAM catalogues to quantify risk for a multitude of potential CS destruct scenarios. Examples include the effect of warning time on the survivability of an escaping crew capsule or the maximum fragment velocities generated by the ignition of leaking propellants in internal cavities.

Richardson, Erin↗
NASA NTRS1986

Automatic-Control System for Safer Brazing

Automatic-control system for radio-frequency (RF) induction brazing of metal tubing reduces probability of operator errors, increases safety, and ensures high-quality brazed joints. Unit combines functions of gas control and electric-power control. Minimizes unnecessary flow of argon gas into work area and prevents electrical shocks from RF terminals. Controller will not allow power to flow from RF generator to brazing head unless work has been firmly attached to head and has actuated micro-switch. Potential shock hazard eliminated. Flow of argon for purging and cooling must be turned on and adjusted before brazing power applied. Provision ensures power not applied prematurely, causing damaged work or poor-quality joints. Controller automatically turns off argon flow at conclusion of brazing so potentially suffocating gas does not accumulate in confined areas.

Stein, J. A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transfer function models for using empirical and physics-based simulation signal response data

In many situations, real or induced flaws such as tight cracks with known morphology cannot be manufactured in part geometry specimens or in real parts. Typically, surface fatigue cracks are manufactured in simple geometry specimens such as flat plates, dog-bone shaped flat or cylindrical specimens. If a nondestructive evaluation (NDE)technique is required to provide a reliably detectable flaw size, denoted asa90/95, for induced flaws in a part, then a direct method for qualifying the NDE procedure is to use appropriate induced flaw specimens and perform NDE procedure demonstration on the specimens. Probability of detection (POD)analysis of the empirical data may provide estimation of a90/95. This approach is described as direct POD demonstration testing, which may follow guidelines of MIL-HDBK-1823. This paper considers a case, where embedded tight cracklike induced flaws are to be detected reliably using a signal response based NDE procedure. Here, it is assumed that it is not practical to make surface or embedded induced flaw specimens in part geometry or configuration. Therefore, a direct POD demonstration testing cannot be undertaken. It is also assumed that simulation of signal response is possible for both surface and embedded induced flaws in part geometry specimens using a physics-based model. The proposed approach for NDE procedure qualification uses artificial flaws in simple geometry and part geometry specimens, and induced flaws in the same type of simple geometry specimens. Signal response data is taken on all sets of artificial and induced flaws in simple geometry and part geometry specimens. Moreover, simulated signal response data is generated for surface and embedded flaws. Thus, a case of five signal response versus flaw size datasets is considered. Three of the datasets are empirical and two datasets are physics model-based simulation datasets. A method of devising and using transfer function calculation dataset blocks to estimate the either the reliably detectable flaw size or the demonstration flaw size is provided.

Nondestructive evaluation↗
NASA NTRS2012

Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection Capability of a Testing System

A method of validating a probability of detection (POD) testing system using directed design of experiments (DOE) includes recording an input data set of observed hit and miss or analog data for sample components as a function of size of a flaw in the components. The method also includes processing the input data set to generate an output data set having an optimal class width, assigning a case number to the output data set, and generating validation instructions based on the assigned case number. An apparatus includes a host machine for receiving the input data set from the testing system and an algorithm for executing DOE to validate the test system. The algorithm applies DOE to the input data set to determine a data set having an optimal class width, assigns a case number to that data set, and generates validation instructions based on the case number.

Generazio, Edward R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Development of utricular otoliths, but not saccular otoliths, is necessary for vestibular function and survival in zebrafish

We have been studying the consequences of embryonic vestibular dysfunction caused by the monolith (mnl) mutation in zebrafish. mnl is a dominant mutation that specifically inhibits formation of utricular otoliths. However, briefly immobilizing mnl/mnl embryos in agarose with the otic vesicle orientated at certain angles selectively induces or prevents formation of utricular and/or saccular otoliths. With this noninvasive technique, we generated six phenotypic classes of mnl/mnl mutants, designated S-S, U-U, U-S, S-US, U-US, and US-US, depending on which otoliths are present on each side (U, utricular otolith; S, saccular otolith). All mnl/mnl larvae survived through day 10 of development. Thereafter, S-S larvae showed a rapid decline, probably because of starvation, and none survived to adulthood. Survival rates in all other classes of mnl/mnl larvae (those having at least one utricular otolith) were close to normal. The presence or absence of utricular otoliths also correlated with vestibular function during early larval development, as measured by three criteria: First, unlike wild-type larvae, S-S mutant larvae showed almost no detectable counter-rotation of the eyes when tilted tail up or tail down. Second, 95% of S-S mutant larvae never acquired the ability to maintain a balanced dorsal-up posture. Third, although most wild-type larvae responded to gentle prodding by swimming in a straight line, S-S larvae responded by swimming in rapid circles, showing sudden and frequent changes in direction ("zigzagging"), and/or rolling and spiraling. All other phenotypic classes of mnl/mnl larvae behaved normally in these assays. These data demonstrate that bilateral loss of utricular otoliths disrupts the ability to sense gravity, severely impairs balance and motor coordination, and is invariably lethal. The presence of a utricular otolith in at least one inner ear is necessary and sufficient for vestibular function and survival. In contrast, saccular otoliths are dispensable for these functions. Copyright 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1984

Spectral analysis of magnetohydrodynamic fluctuations near interplanetary shocks

Preliminary results of an investigation of magnetic fluctuations seen upstream of two interplanetary shocks are presented. The spectral analysis includes calculation of the normalized reduced magnetic helicity spectrum, the normalized reduced cross-helicity spectrum, and the Alfven ratio as discussed by Matthaeus and Goldstein (1982). Minimum variance methods are used to compute wave polarization as a function of frequency. The Taylor 'frozen in flow' hypothesis is assumed to convert frequencies to wave vectors. Some of the basic properties of the waves, including the probable mode of propagation in association with both quasi-parallel forward and reverse shocks, are described. A comparison with previous results on the generation of waves at interplanetary and planetary shocks is presented.

Vinas, A. F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recovering non-Maxwellian particle velocity distribution functions from collective Thomson-scattered spectra

Collective optical Thomson scattering (TS) is a diagnostic commonly used to characterize plasma parameters. These parameters are typically extracted by a fitting algorithm that minimizes the difference between a measured scattered spectrum and an analytic spectrum calculated from the velocity distribution function (VDF) of the plasma. However, most existing TS analysis algorithms assume that the VDFs are Maxwellian, and applying an algorithm that makes this assumption does not accurately extract the plasma parameters of a non-Maxwellian plasma due to the effect of non-Maxwellian deviations on the TS spectra. We present new open-source numerical tools for forward modeling analytic spectra from arbitrary VDFs and show that these tools are able to more accurately extract plasma parameters from synthetic TS spectra generated by non-Maxwellian VDFs compared to standard TS algorithms. Estimated posterior probability distributions of fits to synthetic spectra for a variety of example non-Maxwellian VDFs are used to determine uncertainties in the extracted plasma parameters and show that correlations between parameters can significantly affect the accuracy of fits in plasmas with non-Maxwellian VDFs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Risk-Informed Approach to Trustworthiness Assessment in Digital Twins-Based Autonomous Control

In autonomous control systems, digital twins (DTs) are used to perform diagnostic and prognostic functions. The trustworthiness of these DTs is dependent on quality and coverage of the training data, model accuracy and integrity of sensor data. This work introduces a methodology to determine the trustworthiness of a DT system given faulty sensor data using a risk informed approach. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are used to propagate uncertainties and determine the probability of trustable recommendations. The decision to trust the control action provided by the DT is based on the DT output, expert opinion, and severity of problems. The performance of DTs is reliant on the data they are trained on. When they encounter out of distribution data, the trustworthiness of the recommendations decreases. To address this issue, we include an expert component that provides input on sensor degradation. For this, we utilize a generative artificial intelligence (AI) model, such as Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT). The GPT functions as an expert with broad knowledge. The GPT is fine-tuned to understand and discriminate sensor degradation scenarios using manufactured data. This methodology is demonstrated through a case study on a Nearly Autonomous Management and Control System (NAMAC) during a steady state scenario. Various sensor degradation types with different severity levels are considered. Degraded sensor data is processed by the DT system and the fine-tuned GPT. Finally, using the BBN, we combine the GPT information and the DT output with its sources of uncertainty. This provides an output regarding the trustworthiness of the DT recommendation.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantitative x ray phase contrast imaging of oblique shock wave–interface interactions

Oblique shock wave–interface interactions of gases and liquids have been extensively studied in shock tubes using optical methods to measure equation-of-state (EOS) parameters. However, this is difficult with solids due to their opaqueness to visible light. X ray phase contrast imaging (XPCI) has the penetrative strength to probe solids while still being sensitive to mass density and enhancing the visibility of material boundaries. We investigate the accuracy and repeatability of measuring the mean value of the average mass density (areal density divided by thickness) over region S (B S ) and flow deflection angle (θ) from XPCI images of a sample. To that end, a Hough transform-based method for measuring θ is developed. To measure B S , the XPCI image intensity probability density function (PDF) is modeled accounting for the spatial distribution of x ray energy, scintillator response, and pulse-to-pulse variation in the x ray intensity. In addition, a Monte Carlo-based algorithm for computing the B S PDF is developed. Both methods are validated on an impact-generated oblique shock wave interacting at a solid polymer-to-polymer interface. Furthermore this is accomplished through a comparison to hydrodynamic simulations using well-established EOS. Under the modeling framework for the XPCI image intensity, B S is computed with an accuracy of < 0.1% and precision of 3%–5%, while θ has an uncertainty of 0.2°, respectively. This shows that the XPCI-based model that is developed here could be an invaluable tool for high-fidelity testing of hydrodynamic models in shock polar configurations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fragility Functions Resource Report: Documented Sources for Electricity and Water Resilience Valuation

Fragility curves provide the vulnerability between hazard intensity and an asset. Federal installations may include many different electricity and water infrastructure types (or assets) such as generators, wind turbines, solar PV, switch yards, substations and power lines as well as water distribution systems that could be affected by different hazards. The vulnerability of each asset is a function of its age, type of materials and maintenance. In addition, the vulnerability changes with the hazards intensity and has a probability distribution function associated with it. The fragility functions are used in conjunction with hazard probability and consequence valuations to determine the values at risk for examination of investment grade analyses of alternative mitigation strategies. This document provides examples of fragility functions and links to their sources for different electricity and water infrastructure assets by hazard type.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modified Eigen-Decomposition-based Interval Analysis (MEDIA) for Power System Dynamic State Estimation

The Bayesian approach has been used for the dynamic state estimation (DSE) of a power system. However, due to the complexity of noise resources, it is difficult to quantify measurement and process noise using probability density functions (PDFs). To overcome the difficulty, the authors of this paper propose a modified eigen-decomposition-based interval analysis (MEDIA) method, which employs bounds instead of PDFs to quantify the noise, and uses the eigen decomposition method to reduce the negative impact of the overestimation problem. Using the simulation data generated from IEEE 16-machine and IEEE 10-machine systems, it is shown that the proposed MEDIA method can estimate the hard boundaries of dynamic states in real time. Furthermore, comparison with the forward-backward propagation method and the extended set-membership filter also shows that the proposed MEDIA method performs better by providing narrower boundaries in the DSE.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2011

Hypervelocity Impact Test Fragment Modeling: Modifications to the Fragment Rotation Analysis and Lightcurve Code

Hypervelocity impact tests on test satellites are performed by members of the orbital debris scientific community in order to understand and typify the on-orbit collision breakup process. By analysis of these test satellite fragments, the fragment size and mass distributions are derived and incorporated into various orbital debris models. These same fragments are currently being put to new use using emerging technologies. Digital models of these fragments are created using a laser scanner. A group of computer programs referred to as the Fragment Rotation Analysis and Lightcurve code uses these digital representations in a multitude of ways that describe, measure, and model on-orbit fragments and fragment behavior. The Dynamic Rotation subroutine generates all of the possible reflected intensities from a scanned fragment as if it were observed to rotate dynamically while in orbit about the Earth. This calls an additional subroutine that graphically displays the intensities and the resulting frequency of those intensities as a range of solar phase angles in a Probability Density Function plot. This document reports the additions and modifications to the subset of the Fragment Rotation Analysis and Lightcurve concerned with the Dynamic Rotation and Probability Density Function plotting subroutines.

Gouge, Michael F.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Surveillance and Datalink Communication Performance Analysis for Distributed Separation Assurance System Architectures

This study investigates the effects of two technical enablers: Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B) and digital datalink communication, of the Federal Aviation Administration s Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) under two separation assurance (SA) system architectures: ground-based SA and airborne SA, on overall separation assurance performance. Datalink performance such as successful reception probability in both surveillance and communication messages, and surveillance accuracy are examined in various operational conditions. Required SA performance is evaluated as a function of subsystem performance, using availability, continuity, and integrity metrics to establish overall required separation assurance performance, under normal and off-nominal conditions.

Chung, William W.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Calculation of the Frequency Distribution of the Energy Deposition in DNA Volumes by Heavy Ions

Radiation quality effects are largely determined by energy deposition in small volumes of characteristic sizes less than 10 nm representative of short-segments of DNA, the DNA nucleosome, or molecules initiating oxidative stress in the nucleus, mitochondria, or extra-cellular matrix. On this scale, qualitatively distinct types of molecular damage are possible for high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation such as heavy ions compared to low LET radiation. Unique types of DNA lesions or oxidative damages are the likely outcome of the energy deposition. The frequency distribution for energy imparted to 1-20 nm targets per unit dose or particle fluence is a useful descriptor and can be evaluated as a function of impact parameter from an ions track. In this work, the simulation of 1-Gy irradiation of a cubic volume of 5 micron by: 1) 450 (1)H(+) ions, 300 MeV; 2) 10 (12)C(6+) ions, 290 MeV/amu and 3) (56)Fe(26+) ions, 1000 MeV/amu was done with the Monte-Carlo simulation code RITRACKS. Cylindrical targets are generated in the irradiated volume, with random orientation. The frequency distribution curves of the energy deposited in the targets is obtained. For small targets (i.e. <25 nm size), the probability of an ion to hit a target is very small; therefore a large number of tracks and targets as well as a large number of histories are necessary to obtain statistically significant results. This simulation is very time-consuming and is difficult to perform by using the original version of RITRACKS. Consequently, the code RITRACKS was adapted to use multiple CPU on a workstation or on a computer cluster. To validate the simulation results, similar calculations were performed using targets with fixed position and orientation, for which experimental data are available [5]. Since the probability of single- and double-strand breaks in DNA as function of energy deposited is well know, the results that were obtained can be used to estimate the yield of DSB, and can be extended to include other targeted or non-target effects.

Plante, Ianik↗
NASA NTRS2013

Equivalent Sensor Radiance Generation and Remote Sensing from Model Parameters: Equivalent Sensor Radiance Formulation - Part 1

In this paper we describe a general procedure for calculating equivalent sensor radiances from variables output from a global atmospheric forecast model. In order to take proper account of the discrepancies between model resolution and sensor footprint the algorithm takes explicit account of the model subgrid variability, in particular its description of the probably density function of total water (vapor and cloud condensate.) The equivalent sensor radiances are then substituted into an operational remote sensing algorithm processing chain to produce a variety of remote sensing products that would normally be produced from actual sensor output. This output can then be used for a wide variety of purposes such as model parameter verification, remote sensing algorithm validation, testing of new retrieval methods and future sensor studies. We show a specific implementation using the GEOS-5 model, the MODIS instrument and the MODIS Adaptive Processing System (MODAPS) Data Collection 5.1 operational remote sensing cloud algorithm processing chain (including the cloud mask, cloud top properties and cloud optical and microphysical properties products.) We focus on clouds and cloud/aerosol interactions, because they are very important to model development and improvement.

Simulations↗