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At least 163 records · Page 9

Circuit analysis method for thin-film solar cell modules

The design of a thin-film solar cell module is dependent on the probability of occurrence of pinhole shunt defects. Using known or assumed defect density data, dichotomous population statistics can be used to calculate the number of defects expected in a module. Probability theory is then used to assign the defective cells to individual strings in a selected series-parallel circuit design. Iterative numerical calculation is used to calcuate I-V curves using cell test values or assumed defective cell values as inputs. Good and shunted cell I-V curves are added to determine the module output power and I-V curve. Different levels of shunt resistance can be selected to model different defect levels.

Burger, D. R.↗

Improved Hierarchical Optimization-Based Classification of Hyperspectral Images Using Shape Analysis

A new spectral-spatial method for classification of hyperspectral images is proposed. The HSegClas method is based on the integration of probabilistic classification and shape analysis within the hierarchical step-wise optimization algorithm. First, probabilistic support vector machines classification is applied. Then, at each iteration two neighboring regions with the smallest Dissimilarity Criterion (DC) are merged, and classification probabilities are recomputed. The important contribution of this work consists in estimating a DC between regions as a function of statistical, classification and geometrical (area and rectangularity) features. Experimental results are presented on a 102-band ROSIS image of the Center of Pavia, Italy. The developed approach yields more accurate classification results when compared to previously proposed methods.

Classification↗

Turbulence control on airborne laser platform

An avctive flow control device to generate large-scale, periodic structures in a turbulent shear flow is developed. Together with adaptive optics, the device may be used on airborne laser platforms to reduce or eliminate optical distortion caused by the turbulence in the aircraft's boundary layer. A flat plate towed in a water channel is used as a test bed. A cyclic jet issuing from a spanwise slot is used to collect the turbulent boundary layer for a finite time during its 'on' period. When the jet is turned 'off', all of the turbulent fluid is released instantaneously in one large eddy that convects downstream. Flow visualization and hot-film probe measurements are used together with pattern recognition algorithms to demonstrate the viability of the flow control method. The instantaneous velocity signal is used to compute important statistical quantities of the random velocity field, such as the mean, the root-mean-square, the spectral distribution, and the probability density function. When optimized for a given boundary layer, the cyclic jet produces periodic structures that are qualitatively similar to the random, naturally occurring ones. These structures seem to trigger the onset of bursting events near the wall. Thus, the present device generates periodic structures in both the outer and inner regions of a turbulent boundary layer.

Gad-El-hak, Mohamed↗

System-Availability And Resource-Allocation Program

ACARA analyzes availability, life-cycle cost, and scheduling of resources. Uses statistical Monte Carlo method to simulate capacity states of system as well as failure and repair of components. Failures of components modeled mathematically by use of combination of exponential and Weibull probability distributions. Schedules replacement of components to optimize performance of system. Made to comply with any constraints on production of components, capacities of resupply vehicles, spares kept on site, crews, and/or equipment. Written in APL2.

Viterna, L. A.↗

On the Determination of Poisson Statistics for Haystack Radar Observations of Orbital Debris

A convenient and powerful method is used to determine if radar detections of orbital debris are observed according to Poisson statistics. This is done by analyzing the time interval between detection events. For Poisson statistics, the probability distribution of the time interval between events is shown to be an exponential distribution. This distribution is a special case of the Erlang distribution that is used in estimating traffic loads on telecommunication networks. Poisson statistics form the basis of many orbital debris models but the statistical basis of these models has not been clearly demonstrated empirically until now. Interestingly, during the fiscal year 2003 observations with the Haystack radar in a fixed staring mode, there are no statistically significant deviations observed from that expected with Poisson statistics, either independent or dependent of altitude or inclination. One would potentially expect some significant clustering of events in time as a result of satellite breakups, but the presence of Poisson statistics indicates that such debris disperse rapidly with respect to Haystack's very narrow radar beam. An exception to Poisson statistics is observed in the months following the intentional breakup of the Fengyun satellite in January 2007.

Stokely, Christopher L.↗

Weibull Distribution From Interval Inspection Data

Most likely failure sequence assumed. Memorandum discusses application of Weibull distribution to statistics of failures of turbopump blades. Is generalization of well known exponential random probability distribution and useful in describing component-failure modes including aging effects. Parameters found from experimental data by method of maximum likelihood.

Rheinfurth, Mario H.↗

The analysis of a rocket tomography measurement of the N2+3914A emission and N2 ionization rates in an auroral arc

Techniques were developed for recovering two-dimensional distributions of auroral volume emission rates from rocket photometer measurements made in a tomographic spin scan mode. These tomographic inversion procedures are based upon an algebraic reconstruction technique (ART) and utilize two different iterative relaxation techniques for solving the problems associated with noise in the observational data. One of the inversion algorithms is based upon a least squares method and the other on a maximum probability approach. The performance of the inversion algorithms, and the limitations of the rocket tomography technique, were critically assessed using various factors such as (1) statistical and non-statistical noise in the observational data, (2) rocket penetration of the auroral form, (3) background sources of emission, (4) smearing due to the photometer field of view, and (5) temporal variations in the auroral form. These tests show that the inversion procedures may be successfully applied to rocket observations made in medium intensity aurora with standard rocket photometer instruments. The inversion procedures have been used to recover two-dimensional distributions of auroral emission rates and ionization rates from an existing set of N2+3914A rocket photometer measurements which were made in a tomographic spin scan mode during the ARIES auroral campaign. The two-dimensional distributions of the 3914A volume emission rates recoverd from the inversion of the rocket data compare very well with the distributions that were inferred from ground-based measurements using triangulation-tomography techniques and the N2 ionization rates derived from the rocket tomography results are in very good agreement with the in situ particle measurements that were made during the flight. Three pre-prints describing the tomographic inversion techniques and the tomographic analysis of the ARIES rocket data are included as appendices.

Mcdade, Ian C.↗

Measuring Gap Fraction, Element Clumping Index and LAI in Sierra Forest Stands Using a Full-Waveform Ground-Based Lidar

The Echidna Validation Instrument (EVI), a ground-based, near-infrared (1064 nm) scanning lidar, provides gap fraction measurements, element clumping index measurements, effective leaf area index (LAIe) and leaf area index (LAI) measurements that are statistically similar to those from hemispherical photos. In this research, a new method integrating the range dimension is presented for retrieving element clumping index using a unique series of images of gap probability (Pgap) with range from EVI. From these images, we identified connected gap components and found the approximate physical, rather than angular, size of connected gap component. We conducted trials at 30 plots within six conifer stands of varying height and stocking densities in the Sierra National Forest, CA, in August 2008. The element clumping index measurements retrieved from EVI Pgap image series for the hinge angle region are highly consistent (R2=0.866) with those of hemispherical photos. Furthermore, the information contained in connected gap component size profiles does account for the difference between our method and gap-size distribution theory based method, suggesting a new perspective to measure element clumping index with EVI Pgap image series and also a potential advantage of three dimensional Lidar data for element clumping index retrieval. Therefore further exploration is required for better characterization of clumped condition from EVI Pgap image series.

Zhao, Feng↗

Contact thermal shock test of ceramics

A novel quantitative thermal shock test of ceramics is described. The technique employs contact between a metal-cooling rod and hot disk-shaped specimen. In contrast with traditional techniques, the well-defined thermal boundary condition allows for accurate analyses of heat transfer, stress, and fracture. Uniform equibiaxial tensile stresses are induced in the center of the test specimen. Transient specimen temperature and acoustic emission are monitored continuously during the thermal stress cycle. The technique is demonstrated with soda-lime glass specimens. Experimental results are compared with theoretical predictions based on a finite-element method thermal stress analysis combined with a statistical model of fracture. Material strength parameters are determined using concentric ring flexure tests. Good agreement is found between experimental results and theoretical predictions of failure probability as a function of time and initial specimen temperature.

Rogers, W. P.↗

Uncertainty Estimates for Sonic-Boom Pressure Signatures and Loudness Carpets

A non-intrusive uncertainty quantification method is applied to computational analysis of supersonic, low-boom aircraft. The mean and standard deviation statistics of the pressure waveforms and loudness metrics are evaluated through use of numerical quadrature. The probability density function (p.d.f.) of these outputs is evaluated via kernel density estimation. The simulations use an inviscid, embedded-boundary Cartesian-mesh flow solver in the nearfield combined with an augmented Burgers’ equation solver for propagation in the farfield. The results show that the p.d.f. of the waveform is bimodal at shocks, which makes the mean and standard deviation statistics inappropriate. Despite this limitation, we show that the moment statistics can provide effective assessment of discrepancies when comparing with experimental data. This is demonstrated by presenting uncertainty analysis of a wind-tunnel test and showing that we significantly improve the predictions when we include the test uncertainties in the simulation. Normal distributions are obtained for the ground signature and loudness metrics, which is primarily due to the careful shaping of the low-boom waveform. Separation of variables and error control are used to reduce computational cost. We demonstrate that this is an efficient approach in the sense of balancing numerical errors in the statistics quadrature with discretization errors in the solvers.

ARMD↗

A study of environmental characterization of conventional and advanced aluminum alloys for selection and design. Phase 2: The breaking load test method

A technique is demonstrated for accelerated stress corrosion testing of high strength aluminum alloys. The method offers better precision and shorter exposure times than traditional pass fail procedures. The approach uses data from tension tests performed on replicate groups of smooth specimens after various lengths of exposure to static stress. The breaking strength measures degradation in the test specimen load carrying ability due to the environmental attack. Analysis of breaking load data by extreme value statistics enables the calculation of survival probabilities and a statistically defined threshold stress applicable to the specific test conditions. A fracture mechanics model is given which quantifies depth of attack in the stress corroded specimen by an effective flaw size calculated from the breaking stress and the material strength and fracture toughness properties. Comparisons are made with experimental results from three tempers of 7075 alloy plate tested by the breaking load method and by traditional tests of statistically loaded smooth tension bars and conventional precracked specimens.

Sprowls, D. O.↗

The spectral relationships between NEA and the meteorites: An overview using principal components analysis

One of the primary reservoirs for meteorites is probably the planet-crossing Aten, Apollo, and Amor asteroids. Comparing the spectral characteristics of these two populations with each other and with the spectra of the main belt asteroids would provide insight into the dynamical processes that deliver meteorites to Earth. One method for obtaining an overview of general relationships in a large spectral data set is the statistical technique of principal components analysis. This technique quantifies general spectral similarities and reprojects the data in a plot of major axes of variation where distance is a measure of relative similarity. A major caveat should be kept in mind, however, spectra are sensitive to particle size and viewing geometry effects, and near Earth asteroids (NEA's) are probably significantly different from main belt asteroids in both these factors. The analysis was restricted to the spectral range of ECAS filters and included 116 meteorite spectra from the Gaffey (1976) survey and 417 asteroids from the Zellner et. al. (1985) survey of which 13 are planet-crossers. Although thirteen asteroids are not much of a sample on which to base conclusions, a few inferences can be drawn from this exercise. First, the NEA spectral characteristics are, on average, more consistent with the spectra of meteorites than are the main belt asteroids. Second, the S-type NEA's tend to be spectrally more similar to the ordinary chondrite meteorites than the main belt S-types. This suggests that the planet-crossing S-types do not represent the spectral range of the main belt S-type population and that the planet-crossing S-types are on average more like the ordinary chondrites than the main belt S-types. Third, the only direct asteroidal ordinary chondrite analog, the Q-type asteroid, 1862 Apollo, plots well within the field of the ordinary chondrite meteorites and represents the most common meteorite fall type. Finally, it is interesting that the planet-crossing asteroids occupy similar PCA space with the general trend of the meteorites while most of the main belt objects are offset from the meteorites in statistical space.

Britt, D. T.↗

A simulator for evaluating methods for the detection of lesion-deficit associations

Although much has been learned about the functional organization of the human brain through lesion-deficit analysis, the variety of statistical and image-processing methods developed for this purpose precludes a closed-form analysis of the statistical power of these systems. Therefore, we developed a lesion-deficit simulator (LDS), which generates artificial subjects, each of which consists of a set of functional deficits, and a brain image with lesions; the deficits and lesions conform to predefined distributions. We used probability distributions to model the number, sizes, and spatial distribution of lesions, to model the structure-function associations, and to model registration error. We used the LDS to evaluate, as examples, the effects of the complexities and strengths of lesion-deficit associations, and of registration error, on the power of lesion-deficit analysis. We measured the numbers of recovered associations from these simulated data, as a function of the number of subjects analyzed, the strengths and number of associations in the statistical model, the number of structures associated with a particular function, and the prior probabilities of structures being abnormal. The number of subjects required to recover the simulated lesion-deficit associations was found to have an inverse relationship to the strength of associations, and to the smallest probability in the structure-function model. The number of structures associated with a particular function (i.e., the complexity of associations) had a much greater effect on the performance of the analysis method than did the total number of associations. We also found that registration error of 5 mm or less reduces the number of associations discovered by approximately 13% compared to perfect registration. The LDS provides a flexible framework for evaluating many aspects of lesion-deficit analysis.

NASA Program Biomedical Research and Countermeasur↗

Certain and possible rules for decision making using rough set theory extended to fuzzy sets

Uncertainty may be caused by the ambiguity in the terms used to describe a specific situation. It may also be caused by skepticism of rules used to describe a course of action or by missing and/or erroneous data. To deal with uncertainty, techniques other than classical logic need to be developed. Although, statistics may be the best tool available for handling likelihood, it is not always adequate for dealing with knowledge acquisition under uncertainty. Inadequacies caused by estimating probabilities in statistical processes can be alleviated through use of the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. Fuzzy set theory is another tool used to deal with uncertainty where ambiguous terms are present. Other methods include rough sets, the theory of endorsements and nonmonotonic logic. J. Grzymala-Busse has defined the concept of lower and upper approximation of a (crisp) set and has used that concept to extract rules from a set of examples. We will define the fuzzy analogs of lower and upper approximations and use these to obtain certain and possible rules from a set of examples where the data is fuzzy. Central to these concepts will be the idea of the degree to which a fuzzy set A is contained in another fuzzy set B, and the degree of intersection of a set A with set B. These concepts will also give meaning to the statement; A implies B. The two meanings will be: (1) if x is certainly in A then it is certainly in B, and (2) if x is possibly in A then it is possibly in B. Next, classification will be looked at and it will be shown that if a classification will be looked at and it will be shown that if a classification is well externally definable then it is well internally definable, and if it is poorly externally definable then it is poorly internally definable, thus generalizing a result of Grzymala-Busse. Finally, some ideas of how to define consensus and group options to form clusters of rules will be given.

Dekorvin, Andre↗

Modeling the effects of exercise during 100% oxygen prebreathe on the risk of hypobaric decompression sickness

BACKGROUND: Several previous studies indicated that exercise during prebreathe with 100% O2 decreased the incidence of hypobaric decompression sickness (DCS). We report a meta-analysis of these investigations combined with a new study in our laboratory to develop a statistical model as a predictive tool for DCS. HYPOTHESIS: Exercise during prebreathe increases N2 elimination in a theoretical 360-min half-time compartment decreasing the incidence of DCS. METHODS: A dose-response probability tissue ratio (TR) model with 95% confidence limits was created for two groups, prebreathe with exercise (n = 113) and resting prebreathe (n = 113), using nonlinear regression analysis with maximum likelihood optimization. RESULTS: The model predicted that prebreathe exercise would reduce the residual N2 in a 360-min half-time compartment to a level analogous to that in a 180-min compartment. This finding supported the hypothesis. The incidence of DCS for the exercise prebreathe group was significantly decreased (Chi-Square = 17.1, p < 0.0001) from the resting prebreathe group. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggested that exercise during prebreathe increases tissue perfusion and N2 elimination approximately 2-fold and markedly lowers the risk of DCS. Based on the model, the prebreathe duration may be reduced from 240 min to a predicted 91 min for the protocol in our study, but this remains to be verified. The model provides a useful planning tool to develop and test appropriate prebreathe exercise protocols and to predict DCS risks for astronauts.

NASA Program Environmental Health↗

Blocking Losses With a Photon Counter

It was not known how to assess accurately losses in a communications link due to photodetector blocking, a phenomenon wherein a detector is rendered inactive for a short time after the detection of a photon. When used to detect a communications signal, blocking leads to losses relative to an ideal detector, which may be measured as a reduction in the communications rate for a given received signal power, or an increase in the signal power required to support the same communications rate. This work involved characterizing blocking losses for single detectors and arrays of detectors. Blocking may be mitigated by spreading the signal intensity over an array of detectors, reducing the count rate on any one detector. A simple approximation was made to the blocking loss as a function of the probability that a detector is unblocked at a given time, essentially treating the blocking probability as a scaling of the detection efficiency. An exact statistical characterization was derived for a single detector, and an approximation for multiple detectors. This allowed derivation of several accurate approximations to the loss. Methods were also derived to account for a rise time in recovery, and non-uniform illumination due to diffraction and atmospheric distortion of the phase front. It was assumed that the communications signal is intensity modulated and received by an array of photon-counting photodetectors. For the purpose of this analysis, it was assumed that the detectors are ideal, in that they produce a signal that allows one to reproduce the arrival times of electrons, produced either as photoelectrons or from dark noise, exactly. For single detectors, the performance of the maximum-likelihood (ML) receiver in blocking is illustrated, as well as a maximum-count (MC) receiver, that, when receiving a pulse-position-modulated (PPM) signal, selects the symbol corresponding to the slot with the largest electron count. Whereas the MC receiver saturates at high count rates, the ML receiver may not. The loss in capacity, symbol-error-rate (SER), and count-rate were numerically computed. It was shown that the capacity and symbol-error-rate losses track, whereas the count-rate loss does not generally reflect the SER or capacity loss, as the slot-statistics at the detector output are no longer Poisson. It is also shown that the MC receiver loss may be accurately predicted for dead times on the order of a slot.

Moision, Burce E.↗

Statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions - Dynamics of synaptic modification

A recent study has demonstrated that several scales of neocortical interactions can be consistently analyzed with the use of methods of modern nonlinear nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. The formation, stability, and interaction of spatial-temporal patterns of columnar firings are explicitly calculated, to test hypothesized mechanisms relating to information processing. In this context, most probable patterns of columnar firings are associated with chemical and electrical synaptic modifications. It is stressed that synaptic modifications and shifts in most-probable firing patterns are highly nonlinear and interactive sets of phenomena. A detailed scenario of information processing is calculated of columnar coding of external stimuli, short-term storage via hysteresis, and long-term storage via synaptic modification.

Ingber, L.↗